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AG POLICY & MARKETS DAILY
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2026 | SPECIAL REPORT & ANALYSIS
WEEKLY FEATURE | AG BULL MARKETS DASHBOARD
Ag Bull Markets Dashboard: Corn Stocks Shock, Fed Hike Odds Fade
Week two adds USDA grain stocks, a weather focus and a new Chart of the Week, with reader suggestions shaping what comes next
ANALYSIS · OCTOBER 3, 2026
The Ag Bull Markets Dashboard is back for its second week, and readers have already weighed in. We received several suggestions on what to add to the dashboard, and we appreciate them. Please keep the feedback coming; it will shape how this page evolves.
This edition covers the week ending Friday, Oct. 2: retail gasoline and diesel, the market-implied odds for the next Federal Reserve move, Mexican feeder cattle crossings into the U.S. by day, week and year to date (Friday crossings are still estimates), USDA’s Sept. 1 grain stocks, its current corn and soybean estimates ahead of Friday’s update, Friday settlements for 11 ag futures contracts, and the close for the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq. New this week are a Weather Focus and a Chart of the Week at the end of the dashboard, which appears below.
The lineup will not be fixed. Topics will rotate as the news requires. When a USDA report, a trade action, a policy decision or a weather event moves to the front, it will get a place on the dashboard, and items that go quiet will step aside. This week, USDA’s quarterly stocks report and the harvest weather outlook earned their places.
This week’s standouts: USDA put Sept. 1 corn stocks at 2.095 billion bushels, 171 million above the average trade estimate, and December corn fell 30½ cents, or 5.8%, to $4.97¾. Fed funds futures odds of an October rate hike dropped to 21.6% from 75.8% a week earlier after a weak September jobs report, diesel eased 14.7 cents from its 2026 high to $6.382 a gallon, and soybean oil and December hogs were the only ag contracts on the dashboard to post weekly gains. Mexican cattle crossings totaled an estimated 6,050 head for the week, lifting the 2026 total to 23,250 head. Next up: USDA updates its corn and soybean yield and production estimates Friday, Oct. 9, against a StoneX estimate of 182.1 bushels per acre and 16.115 billion bushels for corn.
KEEP THE SUGGESTIONS COMING
Thank you for the ideas. We received several suggestions last week on what to add to the dashboard, and we are reviewing them as we plan future editions. Items on our list include cash basis at key delivery points, weekly export sales, crop progress and condition ratings, ethanol production and margins, fertilizer prices, the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields, and cattle on feed. We appreciate your continued feedback. If a number shapes your marketing, lending or policy decisions each week, reply to this report and tell us.
BOTTOM LINE
Week two of the Ag Bull Markets Dashboard captured markets that turned on a USDA stocks number and a jobs report. USDA’s crop estimates come next on Friday, Oct. 9, and so will more of your suggestions, so keep them coming.
| Ag Bull Markets Dashboard | Jim Wiesemeyer / AgBull.comData as of Friday, Oct. 2, 2026 close |
FUEL PRICES | FED FUNDS FUTURES
| Regular gasoline$4.465per gallon, U.S. average▼ 1.3¢ vs. prior week▲ $1.347 vs. year agoSource: EIA, week of Sept. 28 | On-highway diesel$6.382 off 2026 highper gallon, U.S. average▼ 14.7¢ vs. prior week▲ $2.628 vs. year agoSource: EIA, week of Sept. 28 |
| Next FOMC meeting: Oct. 27–28, 202678.4% SIGNAL: HOLDodds of holding at 3.75%–4.00% Hike to 4.00%–4.25%: 21.6% Hold at 3.75%–4.00%: 78.4%Source: CME FedWatch, fed funds futures, Oct. 2, 2026 |
LIVESTOCK & CROPS
| Mexican feeder cattle crossing into U.S. (head)Fri. 10/21,950Douglas, Ariz. 1,000Santa Teresa, N.M. 950Week through Fri. 10/26,050Douglas, Ariz. 3,450Santa Teresa, N.M. 2,600Prior week, through 9/256,400Douglas, Ariz. 5,300Santa Teresa, N.M. 1,100 Change vs. prior week−350head, −5.5%Year to date (2026)23,25029 report days Santa Teresa reopened Sept. 24; Douglas on Aug. 24. Year to date adds this week’s estimates to the prior total.Source: USDA AMS, Mexico to U.S. Feeder Cattle Import Summary, Oct. 2 (estimates) |
| USDA corn, 2026 (Sept.)Yield178.5 bpa▼ 2.2 bpa vs. AugustProduction15.800 bil. bu▼ 213 mil. bu vs. Aug.2025: 186.5 bpa, 17.021 bil. buSource: USDA NASS, Sept. 11 · update Oct. 9 | USDA soybeans, 2026 (Sept.)Yield52.8 bpa▲ 0.1 bpa vs. AugustProduction4.535 bil. bu▲ 16 mil. bu vs. Aug.Record · 2025: 4.262 bil. buSource: USDA NASS, Sept. 11 · update Oct. 9 |
| USDA corn stocks, Sept. 1Actual2.095 bil. bu▲ 171 mil. bu above trade avg.Trade estimate1.924 bil. buDow Jones survey averageTopped the high end of trade rangeSource: USDA NASS Grain Stocks, Sept. 30 | USDA soybean stocks, Sept. 1Actual315 mil. bu▼ 8 mil. bu below trade avg.Trade estimate323 mil. buDow Jones survey averageTighter than traders expectedSource: USDA NASS Grain Stocks, Sept. 30 |
AG FUTURES | FRIDAY SETTLEMENTS & WEEKLY CHANGE
Table 1. Friday settlements and weekly change
| Contract | Unit | Settle 10/2 | Week chg. | Pct. chg. |
| Corn (Dec) | $/bu | $4.97¾ | −30½¢ | −5.8% |
| Soybeans (Nov) | $/bu | $12.78¼ | −40¾¢ | −3.1% |
| Soybean meal (Dec) | $/ton | $347.50 | −$23.50 | −6.3% |
| Soybean oil (Dec) | ¢/lb | 68.62¢ | +0.78¢ | +1.1% |
| Chicago SRW wheat (Dec) | $/bu | $6.83 | −20¼¢ | −2.9% |
| KC HRW wheat (Dec) | $/bu | $7.35¼ | −26¾¢ | −3.5% |
| Spring wheat (Dec) | $/bu | $6.98 | −15½¢ | −2.2% |
| Cotton (Dec) | ¢/lb | 78.88¢ | −3.76¢ | −4.5% |
| Live cattle (Dec) | $/cwt | $221.475 | −$0.675 | −0.3% |
| Feeder cattle (Nov) | $/cwt | $331.15 | −$0.825 | −0.2% |
| Lean hogs (Dec) | $/cwt | $70.125 | +$1.10 | +1.6% |
Source: CME Group, Oct. 2, 2026. Live cattle and hogs now quoted in December contracts.
WEEKLY FUTURES CHANGE | STOCK INDEXES
Figure 1. Soybean oil and hogs gained; meal and corn led the selloff
Source: CME Group, Oct. 2, 2026
| Dow Jones Industrial Average51,176.96Day: ▲ +250.40(+0.49%)Week: ▼ −1.26% | S&P 5007,722.72Day: ▲ +56.27(+0.73%)Week: ▼ −0.27% | Nasdaq Composite27,190.86Day: ▲ +319.27(+1.19%)Week: ▲ +0.45% |
Source: CNBC, Yahoo Finance; week vs. Sept. 25 close
WEATHER FOCUS | HARVEST WINDOW OPENS
Drier pattern favors fieldwork. Most of the Corn Belt turns quiet and cool behind Friday’s showers, opening a good harvest window after an exceptionally wet late September, and NOAA’s outlook favors below-normal precipitation across much of the Plains and Midwest through mid-October. The wet spots are elsewhere: heavy rain shifts into the Delta and Southeast through Sunday, a potential slowdown for cotton and soybean harvest, and saturated soils in the southern Plains are slowing winter wheat planting. Freeze warnings and frost advisories are posted near the Canadian border in the upper Midwest.
Figure 2. Drier, warmer outlook favors Plains and Midwest harvest
Source: NOAA outlook issued Oct. 1, 2026; National Weather Service
CHART OF THE WEEK
December corn breaks below its 40-day average. The corn stocks surprise pushed December futures through the 40-day moving average, a key trend gauge, and the weekly low close leaves sellers with the near-term edge. Support sits at $4.92, with resistance at $5.23.
Figure 3. December corn: sellers take the edge
Source: Jim Wyckoff
AG POLICY & MARKETS DAILY | WEEKLY FEATURE — SATURDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2026
