Boozman Releases Senate Farm Bill Text; Now Comes the Manager’s Amendment

Oil’s July surge signals a shift from war premium to supply route risk | Burgernomics at 40: the world’s currencies are still out of whack

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Link: Geopolitical Fatigue Hits the Wheat Pit: Futures Buckle Despite a Bullish Backdrop
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Link: Video: Ag Squawk | Davis Michaelsen | Jim Wiesemeyer
Link: Audio: Ag Squawk: We break down why wheat sells off even with war risk still on the map, and we explain what “prove it” markets look like when traders stop paying for headlines. We also connect the dots from diesel and refinery constraints to the Renewable Fuel Standard, bond yields, China’s soybean inventory moves, and the politics that could shape the next few months.

UP FRONT

■  TOP STORIES

— Boozman releases Senate farm bill text; now comes the manager’s amendment: The base bill adds year-round E15 and modifies SNAP cost-sharing, but the late manager’s package will reveal whether Boozman has secured enough bipartisan support for Thursday’s markup.

— Oil’s July surge signals a shift from war premium to supply route risk: Crude posted its strongest monthly gain since March as threats to Hormuz, Red Sea and Black Sea shipping raised concerns about physical supply disruptions and persistently high diesel costs.

— Burgernomics at 40 shows global currencies remain out of alignment: The Big Mac index finds the Swiss franc sharply overvalued and several Asian currencies deeply undervalued, though wage and rental differences complicate comparisons.

■  FINANCIAL MARKETS

— U.S. equities finish Friday and the week higher: Strong Amazon and Microsoft earnings lifted major indexes despite weak market breadth, rising oil prices, hawkish Fed signals and long-term Treasury yields reaching multiyear highs.

■  AG MARKETS

— Grain bulls break as weather improves; cotton and cattle advance: Corn, soybeans and wheat posted bearish weekly closes as crop weather improved, while cotton and cattle gained technical momentum and hogs showed signs of topping.

■  WEATHER

— NWS warns of severe storms and excessive rainfall: Slight risks cover portions of the Ohio and Mississippi valleys Saturday, with heavy-rain threats shifting toward the Great Lakes, Gulf Coast, Mid-Atlantic and New England through Monday.

— Weekend soaking gives way to returning heat: Rain and cooler temperatures benefit much of the Corn Belt, but missed areas in the northwest remain vulnerable as a Plains heat ridge rebuilds and rainfall becomes more scattered.

■  TOP STORIES

—Boozman releases Senate farm bill text; now comes the manager’s amendment

The late-arriving package — usually adopted in a single voice vote — is where farm bill deals are sealed, votes are won and surprises can ride along

Senate Ag Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark.) late Friday released the legislative text of his farm bill, along with links to summaries and supporting documents, teeing up a committee markup on Thursday, Aug. 6 — the panel’s last window before the Senate leaves for its August recess. Link to our special report with analysis. 

The release slipped a day past Boozman’s target after he cited a “couple of glitches” in the package and as negotiations with senior Trump administration officials over SNAP cost-sharing continued into the weekend. The text updates his June “Farm Bill 2.0” discussion draft. Among the notable provisions: permanent, nationwide year-round E15 sales, and a softened SNAP state cost-share — states with payment error rates of 6% or higher would begin contributing to benefit costs in fiscal 2029, with states above 10% covering 20% of costs starting in fiscal 2031, a one-year delay from the earlier proposal.
 

But Friday’s text is best read as the opening bid, not the final word. The document that will actually shape Thursday’s markup — and possibly the bill itself — is the manager’s amendment, which typically lands only a day or so before the gavel, sometimes just hours.

What it is: The manager’s amendment (or manager’s package) is a bundle of changes the chairman assembles after the base text goes out — technical corrections, negotiated fixes and dozens of member amendments cleared in advance with both sides. At markup, it is customarily offered first and adopted en bloc by voice vote, instantly rewriting the base text before a single contested amendment is debated.

Why it matters: Farm bill markups are won and lost in the manager’s package. It is the currency of the pre-markup horse-trading: senators agree to hold back contested amendments — or to vote for the bill — in exchange for getting priorities folded in. That makes it a running scoreboard of who got what. In the 2018 cycle, the Senate Ag Committee’s manager’s package swept in scores of member amendments at the outset of markup; the pattern goes back decades.

This year the stakes are higher than usual. With Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) absent for medical reasons, Boozman’s vote math is tight, and any Democratic support will likely be purchased line by line in the manager’s package — watch the SNAP cost-share terms, the most likely candidate for further adjustment if a deal with Ranking Member Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and committee Democrats comes together. The package’s authorship is itself a tell: a joint Boozman/Klobuchar manager’s amendment would signal a genuinely bipartisan bill with a path to 60 votes on the floor; a chairman-only package would signal a partisan markup and a longer road.
 

One more reason to read it closely: because the manager’s amendment arrives late and passes fast, it gets a fraction of the scrutiny applied to the base text — and provisions that never surfaced in any draft can ride along. Lobbyists know this; so do appropriators and leadership staff.
 

Bottom line: The text released Friday tells you where Boozman is starting. The manager’s amendment — expected Aug. 5 or the morning of the markup — will tell you where the deal actually stands, who is on board, and what quietly changed while everyone was reading the first draft.

—Oil’s July surge signals a shift from war premium to supply route risk

Hormuz, Red Sea and Black Sea threats leave little room for disruption

Crude oil ended July with another advance Friday as traders confronted growing evidence that geopolitical conflict is interfering with the physical movement of petroleum — not merely creating the possibility of future disruptions. West Texas Intermediate futures rose $1.08, or 1.3%, to settle at $84.67 per barrel, while Brent gained $1.09 to $90.12. Brent surged 24% during July and WTI climbed 21%, their strongest monthly performances since March.

The July rally marks an important change in the market’s thinking. Earlier stages of the U.S./Iran conflict were dominated by rapidly changing headlines and calculations about whether the Strait of Hormuz would remain navigable. The market is now paying closer attention to tanker movements, insurance availability, escort requirements and the actual volume of oil reaching refiners.

That shift helps explain why prices remained firm even as some vessels successfully exited the Persian Gulf. Two very large crude carriers carrying Gulf oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz Friday, but overall traffic remained sparse. Before the conflict, the strait handled roughly one-fifth of global crude oil and natural gas supplies. Iran has sharply restricted shipping since the war began, disrupting millions of barrels per day of Middle Eastern production and exports.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed Friday that it had stopped or attacked two tankers attempting to transit the strait under U.S. protection, while several other vessels reportedly changed course. Iran’s broader version of events had not been independently verified when oil futures settled. British maritime authorities subsequently reported that an unknown projectile damaged one tanker’s engine room and that another vessel experienced a nearby explosion, but they did not publicly attribute responsibility.

The distinction matters. A confirmed Iranian campaign against escorted commercial vessels would represent a further escalation because it would demonstrate that naval protection cannot guarantee uninterrupted passage. Even incidents that cause limited physical damage can raise insurance premiums, delay sailings and discourage shipowners from entering the region. Those secondary effects can remove oil from the market nearly as effectively as damage to a production facility.

Two chokepoints are now under pressure. The Strait of Hormuz is not the only concern. Iran-backed Houthi forces have threatened Saudi-linked shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea. Eight Saudi vessels reportedly changed course Friday, forcing them toward the much longer route around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope.

The combined pressure on Hormuz and the Red Sea limits the ability of producers to reroute cargoes. Longer voyages absorb tanker capacity, increase fuel and insurance costs and delay deliveries to European and Asian refiners. That means additional OPEC+ production would not necessarily translate immediately into greater usable supply if the barrels cannot move efficiently through the shipping system.

Black Sea risks add another layer. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal near Novorossiysk has resumed loading tankers after repeated disruptions from drone attacks, according to Chevron CEO Mike Wirth. The terminal handles about 2% of global oil supply and is the principal export route for Kazakhstan, including production from the Chevron-led Tengiz field.

The resumption of operations provides some relief, but the earlier shutdown demonstrated how quickly a transportation interruption can reach upstream production. Kazakhstan was forced to reduce output when storage filled and the terminal stopped accepting crude. Production at Tengiz reportedly fell from about 925,000 barrels per day to approximately 406,000 barrels per day during one stage of the disruption.

The Black Sea situation is therefore more than another Russia/Ukraine war headline. European refiners rely on Kazakh crude as an important non-Russian supply source. Additional attacks around CPC infrastructure could again constrain Kazakhstan’s production while intensifying Europe’s competition for alternative barrels from the Atlantic Basin, West Africa and the Middle East.

Thin U.S. inventories magnify every disruption. U.S. commercial crude stocks have fallen to their lowest level since 2018, leaving less domestic inventory available to cushion international supply problems. That helps explain why oil prices responded so sharply when Middle East airstrikes resumed Wednesday and why the market retained most of that gain through Friday.

The inventory situation also suggests that price volatility will remain elevated. A diplomatic breakthrough or a sustained increase in tanker traffic could quickly remove part of the geopolitical premium. But another tanker strike, extended terminal closure or attack on energy infrastructure could push Brent back toward the upper end of the $80-to-$100 range that analysts have identified for the near term. A Reuters survey of analysts raised the projected 2026 Brent average to $85.22 per barrel and WTI to $80.14.

The greater economic threat may be refined fuels. ExxonMobil and Chevron warned Friday that diesel and other petroleum-product supplies are likely to remain tight during the second half of 2026. Declining inventories, lower Chinese fuel exports and Russian refinery outages have strengthened refining margins even as U.S. refiners operate at high rates. Chevron expects upward pressure on product prices to extend through the third quarter and potentially beyond.

For U.S. agriculture, that raises the risk that elevated diesel prices will persist into harvest. Farmers, grain elevators, truckers and railroads could face higher operating and freight costs even if crude oil temporarily retreats. Expensive diesel can also widen the gap between farm-level commodity prices and delivered costs by raising the expense of moving grain, livestock and agricultural inputs.

Bottom line: The central market question for August is no longer simply whether the U.S.-Iran conflict will escalate. It is whether enough oil can move reliably through multiple threatened export corridors. Until shipping volumes normalize, U.S. inventories rebuild and refiners gain a larger supply cushion, crude prices are likely to retain a substantial geopolitical premium—and diesel prices may remain even more vulnerable than crude.

—Burgernomics at 40: the world’s currencies are still out of whack

Four decades after The Economist priced its first Big Mac, currency misalignments are the widest since the mid-1990s — the Swiss franc is 45% too dear, Asian currencies as much as 60% too cheap

The Economist’s Big Mac index — dreamed up in 1986 by then-economics editor Pam Woodall as a one-off joke — turns 40 this year as a fixture of economics textbooks, with more than 50 academic papers and 3,000-plus scholarly citations to its name. The premise: since a Big Mac is nearly identical in over 100 markets, its local price is a rough-and-ready test of purchasing-power parity. Where the burger costs more in dollar terms than in America, the currency is overvalued; where it costs less, undervalued.

The July 2026 reading, against a $6.22 U.S. benchmark: Switzerland is the extreme on the expensive side at $9.04 — a franc 45% overvalued — followed by Israel (+23%), Britain (+19%) and the euro area (+14%). At the cheap end sit Indonesia ($2.38), Taiwan ($2.42) and India ($2.45), all implying undervaluation of roughly 60%. The plunging yen has made Japan ($3.08) about 20% cheaper for a Big Mac than China.

The magazine’s 40-year verdict is sobering: misalignments in both directions are now the widest since the mid-1990s. It blames post-2021 American inflation, a persistently undervalued yuan and the weak yen. The IMF’s fuller price data agree — the average dollar price of goods and services worldwide was just 56% of the American level in 2025, the biggest gap in four decades.

Cheap burgers do not automatically mean cheap currencies, though. Labour is nearly half the cost of a Big Mac, and rent, wages and protected beef markets (Swiss beef runs 2.7 times Taiwanese prices) vary far more across borders than tradable inputs like onions and cheese. Rich countries’ higher productivity and wages make them structurally expensive, which is why the index’s GDP-adjusted version rates currencies such as Peru’s sol at fair value despite a cheap burger.

As a trading signal the index is hit-and-miss — though it flagged the newborn euro as 13% overvalued in 1999, a sell signal George Soros’s fund later admitted it weighed, and wrongly ignored, before the euro tumbled. Woodall’s own caution stands: “It’s the concept that’s serious, not the actual numbers.”

Valuations computed from The Economist’s published July 2026 Big Mac prices (base: U.S. $6.22).

Labor — not beef — dominates the burger’s cost, which is why prices track local wages & rents as much as exchange rates.

Sources

“The Big Mac index at 40,” The Economist briefing, July 30th 2026 (August 1st–7th 2026 print issue, “The Global Currency Beef”): economist.com/interactive/briefing/2026/07/30/the-big-mac-index-at-40

Big Mac prices: McDonald’s / The Economist, at market exchange rates of July 15th 2026

■  FINANCIAL MARKETS

—Equities Friday and weekly changes: U.S. equity markets closed higher Friday and posted gains for the week, but the headline advances understated the tension beneath the surface. Strong earnings from Amazon and Microsoft revived confidence that enormous investments in artificial intelligence can generate returns, helping stocks overcome a hawkish Federal Reserve, rising oil prices and another sharp increase in long-term Treasury yields.

• Amazon wins the AI spending debate — for now. Amazon provided Friday’s primary catalyst, soaring more than 15% after reporting its strongest quarterly revenue growth in more than four years. Accelerating growth at Amazon Web Services eased fears that the company’s heavy spending on data centers and AI infrastructure was consuming cash without producing sufficient revenue. The results followed Microsoft’s similarly strong report earlier in the week. Microsoft climbed another 3% Friday after surging more than 15% Thursday, when stronger-than-expected cloud forecasts and relatively disciplined capital expenditures persuaded investors that at least some of the largest AI investments are beginning to pay off.

Apple offered the opposite message. Its shares dropped 7.4% after the company warned that supply constraints would limit growth and raised concerns that higher iPhone prices could weaken demand. The divergent moves produced an extraordinary tug of war: Amazon’s 15% surge carried the Nasdaq higher even as Apple suffered one of its sharpest selloffs in years.

The broader implication is that investors are no longer treating the largest technology companies as a single trade. The market is increasingly separating companies that can demonstrate measurable AI-related revenue growth from those whose capital spending, cash flow or forward guidance does not meet elevated expectations.

Friday’s rally was narrower than it appeared. Although the S&P 500 rose 0.7%, declining stocks within the index outnumbered advancing stocks by roughly 1.3 to one. The Nasdaq recorded 131 new lows compared with only 52 new highs. Trading volume was also heavy at 20.6 billion shares, well above the recent 20-day average of 17.1 billion.

Those numbers suggest Friday’s advance was driven more by the enormous index weight of a few successful companies than by broad confidence in the economic or earnings outlook. Amazon alone was powerful enough to lift the consumer-discretionary sector and the major indexes, while small caps and many individual stocks lost ground.

• The semiconductor sector also remained unsettled. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was nearly unchanged Friday but remained more than 20% below its June 22 record close. That continuing correction shows that investors have not fully resolved their concerns about AI valuations, data-center spending or the sustainability of unusually high semiconductor profit margins.

• A week of violent reversals. The weekly gain concealed unusually large daily movements. Stocks opened the week cautiously. On Monday, the S&P 500 was nearly unchanged, the Dow gained 0.5% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.2% as investors awaited technology earnings and worried that high oil prices could force the Fed to tighten policy further. Tuesday brought a rotation toward industrial, healthcare and consumer-staples shares. The Dow rose 1%, helped by Boeing and Coca-Cola, while semiconductor weakness held the Nasdaq to a 0.2% decline. The market’s low point came Wednesday after the Fed left its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. Three policymakers dissented in favor of an immediate quarter-point increase, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments left investors uncertain about the central bank’s reaction function. The S&P 500 fell 1.52%, the Nasdaq lost 1.74% and the Dow plunged 2.19%. Microsoft then reversed much of that damage Thursday. The S&P 500 surged 1.66%, the Nasdaq jumped 2.78% and the Dow gained 1.19%. Microsoft’s rally lifted chipmakers and reassured investors that strong AI demand could justify elevated capital expenditures. Amazon extended the rebound Friday, allowing all three large-cap indexes to finish the week higher.

• Bond market sends a less comfortable signal. The equity rally occurred despite a significant deterioration in the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 4.743%, its highest settlement since January 2025, while the 30-year yield reached 5.274%, its highest since July 2007. Yields rose after the three dissenting Fed officials publicly argued for immediate action against inflation and regional economic data came in stronger than expected. The two-year yield rose to about 4.28%, while markets assigned roughly a 65% probability to a September rate increase. That was below the 82% probability priced a week earlier but represented a modest increase from Thursday. This matters because higher long-term yields raise the discount rate applied to future corporate earnings. They are particularly challenging for technology and other growth stocks whose valuations depend heavily on profits expected years into the future. The S&P 500 was trading at approximately 20 times expected earnings at week’s end, compared with a 10-year average near 19 times. That valuation is no longer as extreme following July’s technology correction, but it leaves limited room for disappointing earnings, higher yields or another inflation shock.

• Oil adds to the inflation risk. Energy prices remain another important restraint. West Texas Intermediate crude settled Friday at $84.67 a barrel and Brent at $90.12. WTI gained roughly 21% in July, while Brent rose about 24%, as the U.S.-Iran conflict and threats to Middle Eastern and Black Sea shipping routes increased supply concerns. Higher oil prices threaten corporate margins, consumer purchasing power and the Fed’s inflation outlook. They also complicate the equity market’s preferred scenario of strong earnings combined with eventual monetary easing. In effect, stocks are being pulled in opposite directions: technology earnings are improving, but the cost of capital and the cost of energy are also rising.

• Broader rotation offers some encouragement. July was more favorable to the average stock than the major technology indexes suggest. The equal-weighted S&P 500 recorded a fourth consecutive monthly gain, while an equal-weighted S&P 500 exchange-traded fund outperformed the Nasdaq-100-tracking QQQ by 7.6 percentage points during the month. That rotation toward financials, industrials, health care, energy and consumer staples could ultimately make the bull market more durable. However, Friday’s weak breadth and the Russell 2000’s negligible weekly gain show the broadening process remains uneven.
 

• Outlook: earnings support meets a higher bar. The central question is no longer simply whether corporate profits are rising. It is whether earnings can rise quickly enough to offset higher Treasury yields, elevated oil prices and the possibility of another Fed increase. Corporate results remain a substantial source of support. Analysts expect second-quarter S&P 500 earnings to show exceptionally strong year-over-year growth, led heavily by AI-related companies. Yet the reaction to Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Apple demonstrates that the market is demanding clear evidence of returns on investment rather than rewarding spending alone.

The July employment report on Aug. 7 will be the next major test. Economists expect payroll growth of about 83,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. A much stronger report could reinforce expectations for a September rate increase, while an unexpectedly weak report could raise concerns that growth is slowing as inflation remains elevated. More than one-quarter of the S&P 500 is also scheduled to report results, including Eli Lilly, AMD, Palantir and Caterpillar.

The week’s bottom line is cautiously positive but not decisively bullish. Investors demonstrated that they remain willing to buy companies producing strong earnings and credible AI returns. But the narrowness of Friday’s advance, the weakness in small caps and the continued climb in long-term yields indicate that the market has not escaped its larger constraints. Stocks finished the week higher, but the burden of proof is rising along with interest rates.

■  AG MARKETS

—Ag markets Fri., July 31 and weekly changes. Grain bulls break as weather improves; cotton and cattle advance

Weekly low closes point to more selling unless August weather turns threatening

Agricultural futures delivered a decisive split during the week ended Fri., July 31, as improving U.S. crop weather punctured the summer rallies in corn, soybeans and wheat while cotton and cattle finished with bullish technical momentum. Corn and the soybean complex surrendered substantial weather premiums, wheat failed to capitalize on escalating Black Sea risks (link) and lean hogs showed signs of topping. The week’s price action leaves grain traders increasingly dependent on an August weather scare or a surge in export demand to prevent further losses.

• Corn rally falters on rain forecasts. December corn futures fell 4 1/2 cents Friday to $4.64, closing near the session low and at a two-week low. The contract plunged 23 1/4 cents for the week. The size of the weekly decline was significant, but the location of the close may be more important. Corn settled at its lowest level of the week, producing a technically bearish weekly low close and suggesting the summertime rally has run its course — at least temporarily. The market spent much of July attaching a weather premium to heat and dryness in the western Corn Belt. That premium evaporated quickly as rainfall reached portions of Nebraska, Kansas and South Dakota and forecasts projected additional precipitation across the central and eastern Corn Belt. Reuters reported during the week that favorable Midwest weather forecasts pressured both corn and soybeans. Corn is now transitioning from a market focused on potential yield damage to one demanding evidence that meaningful damage occurred. Unless August heat returns with greater intensity or the current rains miss important production areas, traders are likely to assume that recent moisture stabilized crop prospects. The bearish risk is that speculative longs continue liquidating positions as technical support levels fail. The more constructive case is that prices have fallen enough to uncover stronger export or feed demand. For now, however, weather — not demand — is setting the direction, and the weather outlook became substantially less threatening during the week.

•Soybean complex gives back weather premium. November soybeans fell 1 1/4 cents Friday to $11.87 1/2, ending near mid-range but at a three-week low. The contract dropped 66 cents for the week. September soybean meal lost $2.60 Friday to $314.90 and declined $15.90 for the week. September soybean oil fell 96 points to 67.26 cents and plunged 621 points for the week, closing at a four-week low. The broad-based nature of the losses is important. Weakness was not isolated to one product or one demand concern. Soybeans, meal and soybean oil all suffered heavy liquidation, indicating that speculative enthusiasm across the entire complex faded. Soybeans remain more exposed than corn to August weather because the market still must navigate the crop’s critical reproductive period. That gives the soybean market more potential than corn to revive its weather premium. But the burden of proof has shifted: forecasts must become hot and dry enough to threaten pod development before traders are likely to rebuild large bullish positions. China remains the major demand variable. State stockpiler Sinograin scheduled an auction of 504,000 metric tons of imported soybeans on July 31, part of an effort to move reserve supplies through the domestic market. China has also committed to major purchases of U.S. agricultural products, including a reported annual target of 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans. Those commitments provide an important demand backstop, but they did not prevent this week’s selloff. Traders will want to see purchases translated into regular export sales and shipment activity. Until then, favorable crop weather and expectations for greater new-crop availability will remain the dominant influences. Soybean oil suffered the most severe technical damage. Its sharp decline suggests traders unwound positions that had been built around biofuel demand, tight vegetable-oil supplies and elevated energy prices. Soybean oil may be the first component to rebound if crude oil or biofuel margins strengthen, but Friday’s four-week low close leaves the near-term chart vulnerable.

• Wheat ignores Black Sea risk. September soft red winter wheat fell 24 1/4 cents Friday to $6.39 1/4, closing near the daily low and at a three-week low. The contract lost 38 3/4 cents for the week. September hard red winter wheat dropped 23 1/4 cents to $7.07 1/2 and declined 37 3/4 cents for the week. September spring wheat fell 21 3/4 cents Friday to $6.89 3/4 and was down 24 1/2 cents for the week. Wheat’s performance was arguably the most bearish of the major grain markets because futures declined despite increasingly serious threats to Black Sea shipping. Three major Russian export terminals restricted some grain deliveries during the week amid drone threats and heightened shipping risks. Russia’s grain-export lobby subsequently warned that attacks on vessels and infrastructure could eventually halt Black Sea shipments, although that warning has not yet been reflected in sustained futures gains. The market’s refusal to rally on potentially bullish geopolitical news signals that traders remain more concerned about available global supplies, harvest pressure and speculative liquidation. Black Sea risk is supporting wheat above where it might otherwise trade, but the market is demanding evidence of actual export losses rather than reacting aggressively to threats and infrastructure damage. Friday’s weekly low closes in winter wheat create the risk of additional chart-based selling early next week. A rebound will probably require confirmed shipping interruptions, stronger export demand or evidence that current prices are generating greater importer interest.

•Cotton bucks the grain market decline. December cotton futures rose 112 points Friday to 81.79 cents, closing near the daily high and posting their highest close in nine weeks. Cotton gained 181 points for the week. Cotton’s technical performance contrasted sharply with grains. The contract maintained its daily-chart uptrend and finished at the weekly high, giving bulls momentum heading into August. The market’s ability to advance while corn, soybeans and wheat were liquidated suggests cotton is trading its own supply and technical structure rather than simply following the broader agricultural complex. Friday’s close could attract additional momentum buying, although the market will still need continued demand support to sustain a move above recent highs.

• Cattle futures show bottoming signs. August live cattle futures rose 52.5 cents Friday to $231.75, reached a two-week high and gained $4.50 for the week. August feeder cattle climbed $1.55 to $348.025 and finished the week up $2.70. Short covering and bargain hunting helped futures recover from recent pressure, but the technically bullish weekly high closes suggest more than a routine corrective bounce may be developing. After an extended period of volatility, cattle futures are beginning to indicate that near-term lows may be in place. The cattle market remains historically expensive, which can limit speculative buying and heighten concerns about consumer resistance. However, tight underlying cattle supplies continue to discourage aggressive selling. That combination could produce a consolidation period in which futures remain volatile but are supported on significant breaks. Follow-through buying early next week would strengthen the bottoming argument. Failure to hold Friday’s gains would indicate that the rally was driven primarily by short covering rather than renewed confidence in market fundamentals.

•Hogs end week with technical damage. August lean hog futures rose 42.5 cents Friday to $98.85 but still lost $4.00 for the week. Friday’s modest rebound did little to repair the damage caused by sharp losses Wednesday and Thursday. The weekly decline, combined with signs that the cash hog market is becoming toppy, suggests a near-term price peak may have formed.

Hogs now face a different technical environment than cattle. Cattle finished the week at bullish weekly highs, while hogs closed well below recent peaks despite Friday’s recovery. Unless cash prices stabilize and wholesale pork demand strengthens, rallies in hog futures may attract selling rather than fresh speculative buying.

• Outlook: August weather must revive grain bulls. The week marked a major change in agricultural market psychology. In grains, traders moved from fearing crop losses to anticipating that improved rainfall could protect production potential. That transition produced aggressive long liquidation and bearish weekly closes in corn, soybeans and wheat.

Corn appears to have the greatest technical burden because much of its summer weather premium has already been removed. Soybeans retain more opportunity for an August weather rally, but forecasts must become threatening enough to jeopardize pod development. Wheat needs actual Black Sea export disruptions—not merely escalating risks—to overcome harvest pressure and ample competing supplies.

Cotton and cattle enter the new week with the strongest technical momentum. Lean hogs face the opposite setup after a damaging midweek decline.

Upshot: For grain producers, the week’s selloff is a reminder, again, that weather rallies can disappear faster than they develop. Without a renewed crop threat or a strong demand surprise, rallies in August may increasingly become selling opportunities rather than the beginning of another sustained move higher.

■  WEATHER

— NWS outlook: There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi  Valleys on Saturday… …There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley/Southeast/Gulf Coast and Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains on Saturday… …There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower Great Lakes and the Gulf Coast of Florida on Sunday and parts of the Northern Mid-Atlantic/New England on Monday.

—Weather & crop outlook update: weekend soaking, then the ridge returns

Weekend of Aug. 1–2 and a look ahead at the week of Aug. 3

The weekend: the rain event peaks, then exits east. The multi-day rain event that has been crossing the Corn Belt reaches its crescendo Saturday before sliding east and south of the crop districts that matter most. The National Weather Service carries a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley and middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday, along with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall stretching from the Great Lakes through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys to the Southeast and Gulf Coast. A separate pocket of flash-flood risk covers the southern Rockies and southern High Plains, where monsoon moisture is clipping the western fringe of wheat country.

By Sunday the heavy rain threat contracts to the lower Great Lakes and Florida’s Gulf Coast, and by Monday it shifts to the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England — a clear signal that the system is finished with the Corn Belt. Behind the front, temperatures run near to below normal across the Midwest into early week, trimming crop water demand just as the moisture soaks in.

Coverage, not totals, remains the sore point. Broad areas from eastern South Dakota and Nebraska through Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio have banked an inch or more, with 2-inch-plus bands, but northwestern Iowa, southeastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota were again shortchanged. That pocket’s next — and most important — chance arrives with the storm cluster due Monday night.

Week of Aug. 3: cool start, hot finish. 

Monday–Tuesday: the stalled front keeps scattered showers alive across the central and eastern Belt while cooler air holds. This is the window for the Monday-night storms the northwestern Corn Belt is counting on.
 

Midweek onward: the heat ridge re-intensifies from the Desert Southwest into the Plains. Highs of 100 to 110 degrees return from Kansas southward, and mid-90s to 100-plus readings spread into Nebraska, Missouri and the mid-South by midweek, with above-normal warmth reaching the rest of the Belt late in the week. NOAA’s Aug. 5–13 outlook favors above-normal temperatures over nearly the entire country, with below-normal rainfall across the northern and central Plains and Week Two dryness expanding from Texas through Oklahoma, Kansas and parts of Nebraska.

The storm track: “ridge-rider” clusters traveling the ridge’s northern edge remain the Belt’s main rain source. They favor the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and northern Iowa but are inherently hit-or-miss — one county can catch 2 inches while its neighbor stays dry. Confidence in evenly distributed rain falls off sharply beyond the first seven days.

Crop impacts: 

• Corn: the weekend soaking and cool start protect kernel weight through early grain fill across the central and eastern Belt. The late-week heat rebuild raises water demand again, and fields in the rain-shortchanged northwest pocket head into it with thin subsoil reserves.

• Soybeans: the bigger beneficiary. Pod set and early seed fill are just getting started, so repeated showers through mid-August would still add bushels. The crop’s fate now rides on whether the ridge-riders keep arriving.

• Wheat: rain across the northern Hard Red Winter belt rebuilds seedbed moisture for fall planting, at some cost to remaining harvest pace and quality. Farther south, seedbeds keep baking; monsoon moisture helps only the far western fringe. Southern Plains row crops and livestock: dryland sorghum and cotton face deepening stress, irrigation demand spikes, and pastures deteriorate further — supporting hay and feed prices and discouraging heifer retention.

Market read: The immediate tone stays bearish for corn and soybeans: a large share of the Belt banked a crop-supporting rain at the right growth stage, and the early-week coolness stretches its value. The pivot points are narrow and watchable — whether Monday night’s storms hit the northwestern pocket, whether midweek clusters repeat, and how quickly late-week heat re-tightens water demand. If the ridge expands north and the storm track shifts around the Belt, weather premium returns in a hurry. The regional divide keeps widening either way: row-crop stability in the central and eastern Belt against mounting feed, forage and livestock costs out of the Southern Plains.

■  REFERENCE LINKS TO KEY TOPICS

Index to links of special reports & other items of note