China Releases Ag Trade Details on Trump/Xi Truce 

China soybean import tax comparison, U.S. and Brazil | SCOTUS hearing on Trump tariffs

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Link: Cattle Producers Push Back on Meat Institute’s Market Claims
Link: U.S. Soybean Exports Score $1 Billion Boost in Bangladesh Deal
Link: Key Factors Behind Brazil Soybean Price Spread Advantage to U.S.
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 31
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 31

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Today’s Updates:

TRADE & ECONOMY
— China suspends some farm tariffs after U.S. fentanyl duty cut
— China soybean import tax comparison, U.S. & Brazil
— Supreme Court takes up Trump tariff authority case
— Senate looks for a way out as shutdown sets record
— Trump’s SNAP comments add confusion amid court-ordered payments
— Carney’s $90 bil. counter to Trump’s trade war: Deficit swells, immigration shrinks,
     and jobs cut
 

FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Tech-led selloff sent Nasdaq tumbling Tuesday as investors take profits
— Corteva seed sales strong as company lifts 2025 outlook
— Mosaic surges on strong Q3 earnings beat
— Toyota raises profit forecast despite tariff headwinds
— McDonald’s serves up modest gains amid consumer strain
 

AG MARKETS
— Brazil’s pork sector set to lead animal protein growth through 2030
— Fertilizer prices surge as China tightens exports and global supply strains deepen
— S&P Global Commodity Insights trims U.S. yield estimates
— Agriculture markets yesterday
 

TRADE POLICY
— Lange seeks 15% tariff cap, sunset clause in U.S./EU trade deal
 

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil prices edge higher on U.S. data, weak import demand
— Oil prices slipped Tue. as strong dollar, weak factory data weigh on demand outlook
 

CANADA
— Carney’s first budget targets fiscal restraint and trade expansion
 

CHINA
— China’s Services Sector Growth Slows Amid Trade Uncertainty
— China expands Trade Ministry hiring amid rare-earth oversight push
 

POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Democrats sweep key races, signaling voter backlash against Trump policies
 

WEATHER
— NWS outlook: unsettled Northwest weather, high winds for Mid-Atlantic,
     New England

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Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Nov. 5, 2025

Up Front— China suspends farm tariffs after U.S. fentanyl duty cut Beijing has suspended retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans, corn, wheat, sorghum, and chicken starting Nov. 10, following President Trump’s decision to halve duties on Chinese fentanyl-related exports. The coordinated move marks a one-year trade truce between Trump and Xi Jinping and lifted Chicago soybean futures by 1%. U.S. soybeans will still face a 13% Chinese VAT, keeping them costlier than Brazilian supplies.— Supreme Court takes up Trump tariff authority case The justices are hearing arguments over whether President Trump’s broad tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are constitutional. A ruling could redefine presidential trade powers and determine whether businesses receive refunds on billions in duties.— Senate seeks exit plan as shutdown breaks record The federal government shutdown is now the longest in U.S. history, prompting bipartisan talks on a short-term funding bill that could include renewed health-care tax credits. Senate leaders from both parties signal growing urgency to end the standoff.— Trump’s SNAP remarks spark confusion After a court ordered partial SNAP payments during the shutdown, Trump suggested benefits would be withheld until Democrats reopen government. The White House later clarified that partial funds have already been released and that the President’s comments referred to future contingency use.— Carney’s C$90 billion counter to Trump’s trade war Canada’s new budget devotes nearly C$90 billion to investment and defense while shrinking immigration and cutting federal jobs to offset U.S. protectionism. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s plan reorders national priorities to compete with Washington’s trade policies.— Markets tumble as tech stocks retreat The Nasdaq fell 2% Tuesday as investors took profits from AI-linked names like Palantir. The Sevens Report says sentiment, not fundamentals, drove the selloff, with “tech catching up to the rest of the market.”— Corteva lifts outlook on seed strength Strong seed sales in Brazil and Europe helped Corteva top estimates and raise its 2025 forecast, highlighting growth in hybrid and biofuel genetics ahead of its 2026 corporate split.— Mosaic shares surge on earnings beat Mosaic rose 6% after reporting Q3 profits of $411 million, beating forecasts on strong potash pricing and Brazilian performance despite revenue slightly below expectations.— McDonald’s profits miss but sales rise Earnings fell short of projections, yet global same-store sales climbed 3.6%, with U.S. sales up 2.4%. CEO Chris Kempczinski called the results “a testament to our ability to deliver sustainable growth.”— Brazil’s pork sector leads protein expansion Rabobank and Safras & Mercado forecast Brazil’s pork exports to grow 3.5–7% annually through 2030, outpacing chicken and beef as global protein dynamics shift.— Fertilizer prices climb on Chinese export curbs China’s renewed export restrictions on phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers are tightening global supply, pushing DAP prices near $800/ton and raising concerns of higher food costs into 2026.— Lange proposes 15% tariff cap in U.S.-EU deal EU lawmakers want to limit Trump-era tariffs and add a sunset clause to ensure WTO compliance under the new transatlantic framework.— Oil steadies after inventory data Brent rose 0.7% to $64.89 as U.S. stock draws offset weak factory data; OPEC+ plans to boost output by 137k bpd in December before pausing in 2026.— Democrats sweep key elections Wins in Virginia and New Jersey plus Zohran Mamdani’s historic New York mayoral victory signal voter backlash against Trump’s policies and energize Democrats for 2026 midterms.— China’s services growth cools October PMI eased to 52.6, its softest pace since July, as foreign demand waned and input costs rose.— China boosts trade ministry hiring Beijing plans its largest bureaucratic expansion in a decade to strengthen rare-earth and export-control oversight despite the ongoing trade truce.— Weather Storms threaten the Pacific Northwest and northern California; high-wind watches extend across the Mid-Atlantic and New England through Thursday. —China suspends farm tariffs after U.S. fentanyl duty cutTrump/Xi pact ushers in one-year trade truce and optimism for U.S. grain exports China has officially suspended some retaliatory tariffs on U.S. farm goods after Washington halved levies on Chinese exports linked to fentanyl precursors, marking a significant easing in tensions between the world’s two largest economies. Link | Link | Link Beijing’s Ministry of Finance said Wednesday it will suspend all tariffs imposed March 4 on U.S. soybeans and other products including corn, wheat, sorghum, and chicken, effective Nov. 10. The move follows President Donald Trump’s executive orders cutting fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese goods to 10%, and reciprocally lowering overall U.S. duties on Chinese imports from 34% to 10%. Of note: The tariff commission of the State Council, or cabinet, will scrap duties of up to 15% imposed on some U.S. agricultural goods from Nov 10, while keeping levies of 10% introduced in response to President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” duties. The coordinated steps are part of a one-year trade pact between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping that aims to stabilize relations after months of tariff escalation. The agreement, reached during last week’s summit in South Korea, has already lifted market sentiment: Chicago soybean futures rose as much as 1% in early Asian trading. Chinese importers had largely avoided American soybeans amid the trade conflict, turning instead to Brazil and Argentina. Purchases of U.S. soybeans resumed just before the Trump/Xi summit, with additional buying afterward; China imported more than $12 billion worth last year. Traders noted, however, that U.S. beans (and other countries) will still face a 13% Chinese VAT after the tariff halt. Besides soybeans, Beijing removed an extra 15% levy on U.S. wheat, and a major Chinese grain buyer is reportedly seeking its first U.S. wheat shipment in over a year. China comments: “The halting of certain tariffs between China and the U.S. aligns with the fundamental interests of both countries and their people,” the Finance Ministry said, adding that the suspension “meets the expectations of the international community and will help push bilateral economic and trade relations to a higher level.” A separate notice confirmed China will suspend its 24% tariff on all U.S. goods for one year, effective 1:01 p.m. Beijing time on Monday, mirroring Trump’s order. Quote of note: “Broadly, it’s a great sign that the two sides are making rapid progress in putting the deal into effect,” said Even Rogers Pay, a director at Beijing-based Trivium China. “It shows they’re aligned and that the agreement is likely to hold up.” Market impact: Reuters headline: Beijing lifts some tariffs on U.S. farm goods, but soybeans stay costly.China/U.S. Tariff Adjustment Summary (Effective Nov 10, 2025)Category / ProductPre-Deal TariffPost-Deal Tariff (Effective Nov. 10, 2025)Change (percentage points)Notes / SourceSoybeans25% retaliatory + 13% VAT0% retaliatory + 13% VAT-25 percentage pointsRetaliatory duties suspended 1 yearCorn20% retaliatory + standard import duties0% retaliatory + baseline 1%–2%-20 percentage pointsImports may resume via state buyersWheat15% retaliatory0%-15 percentage pointsMajor grain trader reportedly seeking first U.S. cargo since 2024 (Reuters)Sorghum25% retaliatory0%-25 percentage pointsReflects key U.S. feed-grain export restorationChicken & poultry parts10%–15% retaliatory0%-10 to -15 percentage pointsChina lifted additional ‘Phase 2’ poultry levyAll U.S. goods under 24% retaliatory list24%Suspended 1 year-24 percentage points (for 1 year)China keeps 10% baseline tariff (State Council notice)U.S. tariffs on Chinese fentanyl-related goods20%10%-10 percentage pointsTrump EO signed Nov 4Overall average U.S. tariff on Chinese goods≈34%≈10% post-adjustment-24 percentage pointsReciprocal reduction per bilateral pactChina/U.S. Tariffs on Beef and Pork (Effective Nov. 10, 2025)ProductPre-Deal Retaliatory TariffPost-Deal Tariff (Effective Nov 10, 2025)Change (percentage points)Notes / SourceBeefRetaliatory tariff (exact % not published, est. 25–35%)Suspended for one year; MFN ≈12% + 13% VAT≈–25 to –35 percentage pointsRetaliatory duties suspended; MFN and VAT remain (Reuters / USMEF)Pork≈57% retaliatory (March 2025) + baseline dutiesSuspended for one year; MFN ≈8% (muscle cuts) or 12% (offal) + 13% VAT≈–45 to –57 percentage pointsSuspension covers retaliatory duties; MFN & VAT remain (Reuters / Bloomberg / USDA) • Chinese retaliatory tariffs on U.S. pork (≈ 57%) have been suspended for one year starting Nov. 10, 2025.•Chinese retaliatory tariffs on U.S. beef are likewise suspended for one year, though the exact pre-deal tariff % is not clearly specified. •These suspensions are retaliatory duties imposed since March 4, 2025 — other baseline tariffs or VATs may still apply.— China Soybean Import Tax Comparison, U.S. & Brazil (as of Nov. 10, 2025)This table compares the import tariff and value-added tax (VAT) applied by China on soybean imports from the United States and Brazil following the Nov. 10, 2025, tariff suspension.  ExporterImport TariffImport VATEffective Total ChargeNotesBrazil3% (MFN)13%≈16%MFN rate; subject to standard 13% VAT.United States13% (post-suspension, down from 23%)13%≈26%Higher base tariff; VAT applies on CIF+tariff value.Note: Both the U.S. and Brazil pay the same 13% VAT. The key difference lies in the import tariff — 3% for Brazil versus 13% for the U.S. — which creates a roughly $44/metric ton ($1.20/bushel) disadvantage for U.S. soybeans.—Trump said he met with representatives from Switzerland and announced additional trade talks, as the European nation seeks to reduce a tariff rate that ranks higher than any other developed economy (details in Trade Policy section). —Supreme Court takes up Trump tariff authority caseHigh-stakes IEEPA challenge could redefine limits of presidential power The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments today in a landmark case testing whether President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are constitutional — a decision that could reshape the balance of power between the White House and Congress. At issue is whether Trump’s use of IEEPA — a 1977 law designed to constrain executive authority after the Vietnam War — lawfully supports the imposition of broad trade tariffs. The administration invoked multiple national emergencies to justify duties against Canada, Mexico, and China, citing the fentanyl crisis and “unbalanced” trade as national security threats. Critics argue this stretches the definition of an emergency beyond recognition, bypassing Congress’s constitutional authority to levy taxes and regulate commerce. Some legal experts say the stakes go far beyond tariffs. “If the court greenlights the tariffs, then this is a new world order in terms of the constitutional scheme for taxing, for spending, and for regulating all aspects of the economy,” said Hofstra Law professor James Sample. A ruling against the administration could compel the government to refund billions to small- and medium-sized firms that have borne the brunt of the levies — though Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the White House has “other authorities” to act if needed. Of note: USTR Jamieson Greer is set to attend the Supreme Court hearing today on President Trump’s tariffs, Attorney General Pam Bondi said on Fox News. A final decision is expected by June 2026, with some reports saying a ruling is expected before the end of the year, with potential implications for how future presidents wield emergency powers in trade, national security, and beyond. —Senate looks for a way out as shutdown sets recordLongest federal funding lapse in U.S. history deepens as lawmakers debate short-term fix tied to health-care tax credits The federal government shutdown officially became the longest in U.S. history overnight, intensifying pressure on lawmakers to strike a deal. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said momentum is building to end the standoff. “There are people who realize this has gone on long enough and that there’s been enough pain inflicted on the American people,” he told reporters Tuesday. Democrats blocked a Republican attempt for the 14th time to pass the House’s stopgap bill, which would fund agencies through Nov. 21. But bipartisan discussions are underway on a continuing resolution that could reopen the government this week, following Tuesday’s gubernatorial elections that saw moderates Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger win in New Jersey and Virginia (see Politics & Elections section for details). Republicans are weighing a deal that would offer Democrats a vote on renewing expiring enhanced health-care tax credits — the key issue at the center of the shutdown. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Democrats want any funding package to include an agreement on those credits, warning that millions of marketplace enrollees could face premium hikes if they lapse at year’s end. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) dismissed any short-term extension that ends before Christmas, saying a January funding target “makes sense.” He added, “We don’t want to do that [a December bill]. It gets too close, and we don’t want to have that risk.” —Trump’s SNAP comments add confusion amid court-ordered paymentsWhite House clarifies partial benefits are being released as new legal challenge emergesPresident Donald Trump on Tuesday injected new uncertainty into the administration’s handling of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) payments, just hours after a court ordered that at least partial benefits be distributed during the ongoing government shutdown. Trump wrote on Truth Social that benefits would be “given only when the Radical Left Democrats open up government, which they can easily do, and not before!” — a remark that appeared to contradict his own administration’s compliance with the court’s directive. Earlier in the day, USDA instructed states to inform SNAP recipients of reduced benefits, while White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt later clarified that the administration had released the partial payments in line with the court’s ruling. Leavitt said Trump’s post referred instead to the future use of USDA’s contingency fund, which is being used to finance the interim benefits.Separately, a new lawsuit filed this week seeks to block the government from issuing only partial benefits and to compel payment of the full monthly SNAP amounts. A hearing on that case is scheduled for Thursday. —Carney’s $90 billion counter to Trump’s trade war: Deficit swells, immigration shrinks, and jobs cutCanada’s 2025 federal budget retools national priorities in response to U.S. protectionism, pledging record investment and defense spending while slashing immigration and public-sector payrolls  Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first budget is a sweeping attempt to shield Canada from President Donald Trump’s trade offensive and global economic turbulence. The 500-page plan channels nearly C$90 billion in new spending toward investment incentives, defense, and talent recruitment — but also unleashes deep cuts and a historic pullback on immigration. We have details in the Canada section below. In essence: Carney’s budget signals a decisive reordering of national priorities — fortifying defense, courting capital, and curbing population growth  —as Canada braces for a new phase of economic rivalry with its southern neighbor. Meanwhile, the U.S. is collecting $556 million daily in IEEPA tariffs, accounting for 75% of additional customs revenue this year, according to a Bloomberg Economics analysis. If the Supreme Court throws out all of Trump’s IEEPA taxes, it would reduce the effective tariff rate to 6.5% from 15.9% currently, Bloomberg Economics calculates.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

—Equities today: Global stocks fell as concerns over an artificial-intelligence bubble mount. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell by as much as 7% before recovering. Earlier the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell by 1.2% and 2% respectively. U.S. futures recovered from their worst levels overnight and were down only slightly. There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but there is a 4-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on investor expectations for a December rate cut. In Asia, Japan -2.5%. Hong Kong -0.1%. China +0.2%. India closed. In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris -0.3%. Frankfurt -0.7%.

—Equities yesterday: 

Equity Index	Closing Price  Nov. 4	Point Difference  from Nov. 3	% Difference  from Nov. 3
Dow	47,085.24	-251.44	-0.53%
Nasdaq	23,348.64	-486.09	-2.04%
S&P 500	6,771.55	-80.42	-1.17%

—Tech-led selloff sent Nasdaq tumbling Tuesday as investors take profits

Sevens Report says Tuesday’s stock decline was driven more by sentiment and profit-taking than by any fundamental news, with high-flying tech names finally cooling after weeks of outperformance

Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq sliding 2% and the S&P 500 losing 1.17%, as investors took profits from technology leaders that had powered markets to record highs. According to the Sevens Report, the downturn reflected “slightly souring sentiment toward tech” rather than any major shift in fundamentals.

While some attributed the decline to “cautious” remarks from Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and Morgan Stanley’s Ted Pick, the report noted those comments were “non-specific generalizations” rather than concrete warnings. Solomon and Pick both said they expected a 10–20% pullback at some point over the next two years — a routine observation, not a trigger for panic.

Adding to the mood shift was an 8% drop in shares of Palantir Technologies, a popular AI-linked stock. Despite beating earnings and raising guidance, the company’s shares slid on what Sevens Report described as “a combination of elevated expectations and old-fashioned profit-taking.” The report emphasized that Palantir’s results gave “nothing concrete” to suggest that enthusiasm for artificial intelligence is fading.

In its analysis, Sevens Report wrote that the real driver of the selloff was “tech catching up with the rest of the market,” as other sectors had already been declining for more than a week. The publication cautioned that “one 2% drop in the Nasdaq likely isn’t all that’s needed to return the market to a better sense of balance,” predicting continued underperformance in technology stocks over the next few sessions.

Looking ahead, the report said a more serious downturn in AI-driven names would require evidence of slower corporate capital spending — a signal not yet visible in recent data. “Yesterday’s drop in tech, while it likely isn’t over, is anything more than a pullback from an unsustainable separation from the rest of the market,” Sevens Report concluded.

—Corteva seed sales strong as company lifts 2025 outlook

Early Brazil deliveries, hybrid demand, and strong EMEA corn sales drive 33% seed growth

Corteva’s third-quarter results topped Wall Street expectations, fueled by strong seed sales that helped narrow losses and prompted the company to raise its full-year guidance. Shares rose 4% in after-hours trading Tuesday.

The Indianapolis-based agricultural technology firm reported a net loss of $308 million, or $0.46 a share, improving from a $519 million loss a year earlier and ahead of analysts’ forecasts. On an adjusted basis, the loss was $0.23 a share versus the expected $0.47. Revenue climbed 13% to $2.62 billion, above the $2.47 billion consensus.

Seed sales power results: Seed revenue jumped 33% to $917 million, driven by early safrinha corn deliveries in Brazil, stronger corn sales in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and higher out-licensing income. Crop Protection sales increased 4% to $1.70 billion amid steady demand for new herbicides and biological products.

Operating EBITDA rose sharply — up 149% year-over-year to $49 million — reflecting improved profitability across both business lines.

Full-year guidance raised. Corteva lifted its 2025 outlook to net sales between $17.7 billion and $17.9 billion, operating EBITDA of $3.8–$3.9 billion, and earnings of $3.25–$3.35 per share, about 28% higher than last year. For 2026, it projects operating EBITDA around $4.1 billion at the midpoint.

CEO Chuck Magro said the company’s strong performance underscores confidence in its planned 2026 split into two independent firms: “New Corteva,” centered on crop-protection technologies, and “SpinCo,” focused on advanced genetics, hybrid wheat, and biofuels.

Year-to-date momentum. For the first nine months of 2025, net sales climbed 4% to $13.49 billion, operating EBITDA rose 19% to $3.4 billion, and operating EPS gained 39% to $3.11. Magro said Corteva continues to benefit from “strong demand for our latest seed hybrids and biologicals, along with disciplined cost management.”

—Mosaic surges on strong Q3 earnings beat

Higher potash prices and Brazil strength drive results despite revenue miss

Shares of The Mosaic Company (MOS) jumped 6% in after-hours trading Tuesday after the fertilizer producer reported third-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street profit estimates, even as revenue narrowly missed expectations.

Mosaic posted net income of $411 million ($1.29 per share) for the quarter ended Sept. 30, up sharply from $122 million ($0.38 per share) a year earlier and well above analyst forecasts of $1.02. Adjusted EPS of $1.04 also topped consensus estimates of $0.95.

Revenue rose 23% to $3.45 billion, just short of projections of $3.53 billion, while EBITDA surged to $806 million from $448 million a year ago. Gains were driven by higher potash prices and a strong showing in Mosaic’s Brazilian unit, where adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $241 million.

CEO Bruce Bodine said Mosaic delivered “strong earnings despite operational and market challenges,” citing progress in phosphate production and continued resilience in Brazil despite credit headwinds.

Segment highlights

•Phosphate: Net sales climbed to $1.3 billion from $1.0 billion, with operating earnings up to $102 million and adjusted EBITDA at $280 million.

•Potash: Net sales increased to $695 million from $526 million, with adjusted EBITDA rising to $329 million.

• Mosaic Fertilizantes (Brazil): Sales grew to $1.6 billion from $1.4 billion; adjusted EBITDA surged 190% year over year.

Outlook: Mosaic expects 2025 production of 9.1–9.4 million tonnes of potash and 6.3–6.5 million tonnes of phosphate, with capital spending of about $1.3 billion. The company forecasts Q4 phosphate prices at $700–$730 per tonne and potash at $270–$280 per tonne, reflecting steady global demand despite trade uncertainty and Brazil’s tight credit environment.

—Toyota raised its full-year profit forecast to ¥2.93trn ($19bn). President Trump’s tariffs have taken a toll on the world’s largest carmaker — its operating profit dropped by 27%. Yet stronger vehicle sales and cost cuts have softened the blow. The Japanese carmaker now expects to sell 11.3 million units this year, up from an earlier forecast of 11.2 million.

—McDonald’s serves up modest gains amid consumer strain

Earnings fall short of forecasts, but global sales show resilience as customers trade up on menu value

McDonald’s posted mixed third-quarter results on Wednesday, missing Wall Street’s profit estimates even as its global same-store sales rose 3.6% — a turnaround from last year’s 1.5% decline. The burger giant’s U.S. same-store sales climbed 2.4%, exceeding expectations and driven largely by higher average checks rather than traffic growth.

CEO Chris Kempczinski called the results “a testament to our ability to deliver sustainable growth even in a challenging environment,” as the chain faces softening demand among lower-income consumers.

Quarterly highlights:

• Earnings per share: $3.22 adjusted vs. $3.33 expected

• Revenue: $7.08 billion vs. $7.1 billion expected

• Net income: $2.28 billion, up slightly from $2.26 billion a year ago

• Same-store sales: +3.6% overall; +2.4% in the U.S.; +4.3% in Australia and Canada; +4.7% in Japan

Despite higher taxes that weighed on earnings, revenue rose 3% year over year. The company credited menu innovation and renewed value offerings — such as the reintroduction of Snack Wraps at $3.99 and the return of Extra Value Meals — for helping offset a slowdown in discretionary spending.

International markets remained the bright spot, with sales growth outpacing the U.S. as consumers abroad showed stronger demand recovery. Analysts said McDonald’s remains well positioned to weather economic uncertainty, but price sensitivity and heightened competition from rivals like Wendy’s and Taco Bell continue to pressure the company’s margins.

AG MARKETS

—S&P Global Commodity Insights latest crop estimates. The group pegs U.S. corn yield at 185.5 bu/ac, vs USDA Sept at 186.7 bu/ac. Soybeans at 53.0 bu/ac vs USDA Sept. at 53.5 bu/ac.

—Brazil’s pork sector set to lead animal protein growth through 2030

Rabobank and Safras & Mercado see poultry margins tightening as global supply expands

Brazil’s pork industry is emerging as the country’s strongest growth driver among animal proteins, with analysts forecasting sustained expansion through the next decade even as poultry producers face margin pressure from rising global supply.

Rabobank projects that chicken meat output will rise 2% in Brazil in 2026, compared with 1.6% in the U.S. and up to 2% in the EU — a pace that could weigh on international prices. Despite this, Brazil’s export outlook remains firm: consultancy Safras & Mercado expects the country to ship 5.5 million tonnes of chicken meat in 2026, aided by a more stable sanitary environment after avian flu disruptions earlier this year. “Lower prices show Brazil is using the international market to relieve domestic supply pressure,” said Fernando Iglesias, animal protein analyst at Safras.

By contrast, pork is forecast to deliver the fastest and most durable growth, with exports expected to expand 3.5%–7% annually through 2030. Iglesias called pork “the market with the highest potential to open new destinations and consolidate Brazil as one of the world’s top suppliers,” predicting the country will close 2025 as the world’s third-largest pork exporter.

At home, both poultry and pork sectors are expected to gain from tighter beef supplies next year — a dynamic that should boost domestic demand for lower-cost proteins.

— Fertilizer prices surge as China tightens exports and global supply strains deepen

Beijing’s renewed export curbs on phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers add pressure to global markets already hit by sanctions on Russia and Belarus, raising concerns over rising food costs worldwide

Global fertilizer markets are once again under stress as China’s export restrictions and geopolitical frictions push prices higher. Prices for diammonium phosphate (DAP) reached a three-year high of $795 per tonne in August, easing only slightly to $780 in September — still 34% higher than early 2025, according to recent data.

Geopolitical constraints. Fertilizer prices remain highly sensitive to global tensions, having first surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine disrupted supply chains. The World Bank’s fertilizer price index, which nearly tripled to 293 in April 2022, has started climbing again in 2025 amid renewed disruptions.

China, responsible for 46% of global phosphate rock output, suspended exports of urea and DAP in October. The move follows a dramatic 90% plunge in nitrogen fertilizer exports in 2024, which had only recently begun to recover. Analysts say Beijing is prioritizing domestic food security and responding to U.S. tariff measures under President Donald Trump. “China may be prioritizing domestic supply to boost agricultural production,” said Yukiko Nozaki of Mitsui & Co.’s Institute for Strategic Studies, adding that the measures echo Beijing’s past curbs on rare earth elements.

Ripple effects and policy shifts. The European Union has also intensified pressure on supply chains, imposing tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilizer imports that will rise through 2028. Together, Russia and Belarus account for roughly one-third of global potash production — nearly half when combined with China. “Few suppliers exist beyond Russia and Belarus,” warned World Bank economist John Baffes, cautioning that substitution efforts would be expensive and disruptive.

Impact on agriculture and food prices. Rising fertilizer prices are driving up farm costs worldwide. In the United States, fertilizers account for about 18% of soybean production costs and 35% for wheat and corn, according to USDA. Developing nations face even steeper challenges, with reduced fertilizer use already depressing yields in South Asia and Africa.

The International Fertilizer Association estimates that a 5% drop in nitrogen use can cut wheat output by 3.1% and rice by 1.5%. The World Bank warns that fertilizer, energy, and interest rate shifts can take 12 to 16 months to fully ripple through food markets, meaning higher food prices are likely well into 2026.

—Agriculture markets yesterday:

Commodity	Contract  Month	Closing Price  Nov. 4	Change from  Nov. 3
Corn	December	$4.31 1/2	▼ 2 3/4¢
Soybeans	January	$11.21 1/2	▼ 12 3/4¢
Soybean Meal	December	$317.40	▼ $3.40
Soybean Oil	December	49.53¢	▼ 31 pts
SRW Wheat	December	$5.50 1/4	▲ 6 3/4¢
HRW Wheat	December	$5.36 1/2	▲ 4 3/4¢
Spring Wheat	December	$5.57 1/4	▼ 1 1/4¢
Cotton	December	65.20¢	▼ 48 pts
Live Cattle	December	$227.775	▼ $4.425
Feeder Cattle	January	$329.225	▼ $7.30
Lean Hogs	December	$79.925	▼ 67 1/2¢

TRADE POLICY

—Lange seeks 15% tariff cap, sunset clause in U.S./EU trade deal

European lawmakers push to limit Trump-era tariffs and ensure WTO compliance under new transatlantic framework

European Parliament trade chair Bernd Lange is urging amendments to the new U.S./EU trade framework, proposing a 15% tariff cap and an 18-month sunset clause to ensure the deal’s compatibility with WTO rules.

Lange said the cap would prevent the U.S. from raising Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and other goods, while the sunset clause would terminate the pact if a broader trade agreement isn’t reached. He also called for a “standstill clause” to block future tariff hikes and an impact assessment on EU markets.

The European Commission called his ideas “useful,” while lawmakers such as Brando Benifei and Anna Cavazzini backed the proposals as a step to defend Europe’s industry. Others said the framework still leaves the EU vulnerable to U.S. pressure.

Amendments are due Nov. 11, with a committee vote expected early next year.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

—Oil prices edged higher Wednesday as investors digested U.S. inventory data pointing to firmer fuel demand, while weaker economic data from top oil importers weighed on prices. 

 

Brent crude futures rose 0.7% to $64.89 a barrel, having touched a near two-week low yesterday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 0.76% to $61.02.

 Oil probably found support from U.S. data that was not as bad as feared thanks to large product inventory declines, suggesting demand was holding up, analysts noted.

—Oil prices slip as strong dollar, weak factory data weigh on demand outlook

Traders eye OPEC+ production plans and U.S. sanctions impact on Russian exports

Oil prices inched lower Tuesday as a firmer U.S. dollar and weak global manufacturing data renewed concerns about energy demand. Brent crude slipped 45 cents, 0.7%, to $64.44 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 49 cents, 0.8%, to $60.56 — extending modest losses from Monday.

The dollar climbed to a four-month high against the euro, making dollar-priced oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Factory activity in Japan and South Korea remained sluggish, reinforcing soft demand signals across Asia, the world’s biggest oil-consuming region.

On the supply front, OPEC+ reaffirmed plans to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day in December before pausing further increases in early 2026 — a move reflecting the group’s caution amid uncertain demand. Traders are now awaiting U.S. inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute, which is expected to show a slight rise in crude stocks.

CANADA

—Carney’s first budget targets fiscal restraint and trade expansion

Cuts to ag programs offset by expensing incentives and export funding

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first federal budget, unveiled Tuesday by Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne, outlines sweeping fiscal restraint and an ambitious trade-and-investment agenda. The 493-page plan projects a $78.3 billion deficit for 2025-26, narrowing to $65 billion the following year, as Ottawa seeks to pare departmental spending by 15% over three years. (Source of this information: reagriculture.com, link.)

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada face deep cuts. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) will trim about $112 million in 2026-27 by “recalibrating” programs and “modernizing” operations, with further reductions planned through 2029-30. The department will wind down its Living Labs initiative and streamline scientific activities where private or academic capacity exists. AAFC also plans to flatten management layers and reduce contracting costs through automation and digitalization.

Productivity “super-deduction” for businesses. The budget introduces a “Productivity Super-Deduction” package of immediate tax write-offs for capital assets to bolster competitiveness with the U.S. Highlights include:

• Reinstating the Accelerated Investment Incentive for enhanced first-year depreciation.

• Immediate expensing of manufacturing equipment, clean-energy assets, zero-emission vehicles, and productivity tools like patents and data infrastructure.

• Expensing for scientific research and manufacturing buildings through 2030, with a phase-out by 2033.

• Raising the SR&ED credit limit from $4.5 million to $6 million starting Dec. 2024.

Trade and infrastructure push. Ottawa proposes a major boost for export infrastructure and trade coordination:

• $213 million over five years for a Major Projects Office to align public and private investments.

• $5 billion over seven years for a Trade Diversification Corridors Fund under Transport Canada.

• A new Strategic Exports Office within Global Affairs Canada and $20 million to enhance trade-negotiation capacity.

No change to capital gains or farm exemptions. The government confirmed the permanent cancellation of a planned capital-gains inclusion rate increase and retained the $1.25 million lifetime exemption for farm property.

CFIA digital overhaul to aid ag trade. The Canadian Food Inspection Agency will receive $76 million to modernize trade systems and incorporate AI into certification processes, and $32.8 million to expand market access for farm and seafood exports. Paper-based import and export documents will transition to digital formats to cut regulatory delays.

Other highlights

•Grain transportation: No renewal of extended rail interswitching, but a pledge to balance stakeholder interests in supply-chain planning.

•Weather forecasting: $2.7 billion over nine years to upgrade Environment Canada’s modeling systems.

•Legislative changes: Regular reviews of the Farm Credit Canada Act; new “regulatory sandboxes” for innovation; risk-based pesticide oversight to replace cyclical reviews.

•Climate metrics: New indicators to track emissions reductions and clean-economy growth as part of a “Climate Competitiveness Strategy.”

Political outlook: The budget forecasts a 10% reduction in the federal public service by 2028-29 and faces a tenuous path in Parliament. Conservative and Bloc leaders have already signaled opposition, leaving the Liberal minority vulnerable to defeat and a potential election trigger if the bill fails to pass.

CHINA

—China’s Services Sector Growth Slows Amid Trade Uncertainty

October PMI eases to 52.6 as foreign demand weakens, input costs rise

China’s services sector expanded at a slower pace in October, with the RatingDog General Services PMI edging down to 52.6 from 52.9 in September, the weakest reading since July but still above expectations of 52.5.

The moderation reflected a decline in foreign sales amid heightened global trade uncertainty, even as domestic demand strengthened and total new orders grew at a faster pace. Employment fell due to easing capacity pressures and cost concerns, while input cost inflation rose to a one-year high driven by higher wages and raw material prices.

Despite rising costs, firms cut selling prices slightly to boost competitiveness, and overall business confidence weakened modestly as companies grew cautious about the global trade outlook and intensifying competition.

—China expands Trade Ministry hiring amid rare-earth oversight push

Commerce Ministry adds biggest staff increase in a decade, even as trade truce holds

China’s Commerce Ministry is undertaking its largest hiring drive in ten years, strengthening the department that manages rare-earth export controls even as Beijing pauses broader trade measures under its truce with the U.S.

According to an official job notice, the Bureau of Industrial Security and Export and Import Controls will add at least five officials next year — the biggest increase since the ministry began releasing job data in 2022, Bloomberg News reported. In total, the ministry plans to hire 60 new bureaucrats for 2026, ranking it among China’s most active government recruiters as it balances domestic industrial oversight with international trade détente.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

—Democrats sweep key races, signaling voter backlash against Trump policies

Virginia and New Jersey wins energize Democrats ahead of 2026 midterms

Democrats scored decisive victories in Tuesday’s gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, giving the party fresh momentum and a morale boost as it eyes a path back to power in Washington. Both contests — seen as early referendums on President Donald Trump’s second term — saw Democratic candidates outperform expectations, signaling a leftward swing among voters frustrated by high costs and presidential overreach.

Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger cruised to what may be the biggest Democratic win in a Virginia governor’s race since 1985, while Rep. Mikie Sherrill scored an unexpectedly wide victory in New Jersey. Each framed their campaigns around lowering living costs and restoring political stability, contrasting sharply with Republicans who tied themselves closely to Trump. Meanwhile, former Democratic state delegate Jay Jones was projected to become Virginia’s next attorney general, according to the Associated Press, riding a wave of enthusiasm for his party to overcome a scandal over violent text messages he sent years ago that nearly toppled his campaign.

New York City voters made history Tuesday by electing Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist state assemblyman from Queens, as the city’s next mayor. Mamdani defeated former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who ran as an independent, and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa, capturing about 50.4% of the vote to Cuomo’s 41.6% and Sliwa’s 7.1%. At 34 years old, Mamdani will be the youngest mayor in more than a century and the city’s first Muslim mayor, marking a major generational and ideological shift in New York politics. Turnout surpassed two million voters, the highest since 1969. Mamdani’s campaign centered on housing affordability, public transit access, and raising the minimum wage, appealing strongly to younger and working-class voters. His victory was powered by a grassroots coalition and strong turnout among younger residents, while Cuomo’s bid to reclaim political ground faltered despite his name recognition. The election outcome underscores a leftward shift in New York City’s electorate, reflecting growing frustration with high rents, economic inequality, and safety concerns. Mamdani has pledged to make the city “a place where working people can afford to live and thrive.” He will be sworn in on January 1, 2026, inheriting significant challenges — from closing budget gaps to addressing public safety and housing shortages. Yet, his win signals the rising influence of progressive urban politics nationwide and sets the stage for a new chapter in City Hall. His victory raises new questions about whether his success will spur other Democratic candidates to go farther left and become more populist.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) hailed the results as evidence that “Republican policies have failed them,” arguing that the cost of living “is out of control, and Donald Trump has not done a damn thing to change it.”

Beyond the East Coast, Democrats celebrated a redistricting referendum win in California that will make the state’s congressional map more favorable to them — a development that could help offset Republican gerrymandering elsewhere. The California win may also bolster Gov. Newsom’s prospects for a presidential run. The governor, who raised more than $100 million in support of Proposition 50 from backers including the billionaires Reed Hastings, Michael Moritz and George Soros, has emerged as a leading standard-bearer for Democrats.

Republicans downplayed the results, with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) dismissing the victories in “liberal-leaning states” and warning that the rise of New York’s newly elected socialist mayor Zohran Mamdani showed “the Marxists are taking over their party.”

Still, the numbers tell a different story: voters in both bellwether states swung left relative to 2024, echoing historical patterns in which the party that wins both post-presidential governor races goes on to gain House seats in the following midterms. Democrats did so in 2018 and 2006, while Republicans capitalized in 2010 after sweeping both contests in 2009.

“Tonight we sent a message,” Spanberger said at her victory event, stressing her campaign’s focus on “lowering costs, not chaos.” Sherrill, invoking constitutional themes, told supporters, “This nation has not ever been, nor will it ever be ruled by kings.”

Of note: Prediction markets again nailed the results. Bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket yesterday wagered heavily on Democratic wins, even as some polls had suggested tight races in New Jersey and Virginia.

Polls show Trump entering 2026 politically weakened: a CNN survey this week found his approval rating at 37%, with nearly two-thirds of Americans unhappy with the economy. For Democrats — from the centrist Spanberger and Sherrill to the progressive Mamdani — the results offered a rare unifying narrative of voter discontent with Trump’s leadership and a potential opening to reclaim the U.S. House next November.

Says one GOP analyst: “California has long been a political wasteland. Elected Republicans in NJ are rare exceptions. And they’ve been increasingly so in VA. So, ho hum.”

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Unsettled weather for the Northwest & Northern California, with a

limited threat for flash flooding into early Friday morning… …High Wind Watches for the northern Mid-Atlantic & southern New England states this afternoon into Thursday & northern Montana Thursday… …Dryness continues across the southern tier of the country & portions of the Mid-Atlantic States with generally seasonable warmth.