Congress Faces Iran War Debate, Transportation Deadline, and Key Primaries

Ag-related issues will take longer to unfold, including year-round E15 in Senate, ag disaster and farmer aid and Senate work on Farm Bill 2.0 | USDA food price update Friday | Deere earnings Thursday

Link: Weekend Updates, May 16:

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, May 16
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, May 16

Podcast topics discussed: 

1.  Markets
    • Friday prices and weekly change and perspective
    • USDA winter wheat estimate 
2.  Trump/Xi summit
    • G2 
    • Taiwan
    • Iran 
    • Ag 
    • Boeing
    • Key issue: 
3.  Year-around E15
    • Clears House
    • Senate vote perspective
4.  Mexico pork issues
5.  USMEF study: Red meat exports delivered major value to U.S.  corn & soybean producers in 2025
6.  Fertilizer hearing
7.  Cattle/beef prices
8.  Kevin Warsh, new Fed Reserve chairman
9.  Treasury yields
10.  War with Iran
     

TOP STORIES
 

— China, U.S. signal tariff relief and expanded farm trade: Beijing and Washington agreed to pursue selective tariff reductions and expand agricultural trade following the Trump/Xi summit, while both sides also pledged to address beef, poultry, dairy and other market-access disputes amid broader efforts to stabilize economic ties.

— Republicans gain ground in House map fight: New redistricting developments are improving the GOP’s position in the battle for House control, narrowing Democrats’ path to reclaiming the majority and shifting several key battleground projections ahead of the 2026 midterms.

— Kean’s extended absence raises GOP anxiety over key New Jersey swing seat: House Republicans are growing increasingly concerned about Rep. Tom Kean Jr.’s prolonged medical absence as uncertainty builds around one of the GOP’s most vulnerable suburban districts heading into the midterms.

— Congress faces Iran war debate, transportation deadline, and key primaries: Lawmakers return to Washington confronting mounting pressure over Iran war costs, rising fuel prices, infrastructure funding deadlines and an increasingly heated 2026 political environment.

— Agriculture agenda intensifies as Congress eyes Farm Bill 2.0, year-round E15, and trade issues: Farm bill negotiations, biofuels policy, Proposition 12 disputes and fallout from the Trump/Xi summit are expected to dominate agriculture policy discussions this week.

— House eyes major infrastructure push ahead of transportation deadline: The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee is preparing to advance a five-year, $580 billion transportation package as lawmakers debate highway funding, permitting reform and electric vehicle fees ahead of the Sept. 30 deadline.

— Trump targets GOP critics after Cassidy defeat: President Trump celebrated Sen. Bill Cassidy’s primary defeat and escalated attacks on Rep. Thomas Massie, underscoring Trump’s continued push to reshape the Republican Party around loyalty to his political movement.
 

KEY EVENTS
 

— Washington focus shifts to budget battles, reconciliation and China hearings: Congress returns to a packed week of FY 2027 budget hearings, reconciliation markups, aviation safety scrutiny and growing focus on U.S./China competition, trade policy and inflation concerns.

ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS

— Economic calendar preview: Markets this week will closely watch housing data, FOMC minutes, manufacturing surveys and consumer sentiment reports for signals on economic growth, inflation pressures and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook.

AG REPORTS

— U.S. agriculture data calendar preview: Traders will monitor crop progress, export demand, livestock supplies and food inflation reports this week as USDA releases key updates tied to grain markets, meat production and dairy supplies.

ENERGY REPORTS

— Energy markets eye inventories, OPEC outlook and rig activity: Energy markets will focus on inventory reports, OPEC and IEA outlooks, major global energy conferences and continued volatility tied to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

TOP STORIES—China, U.S. signal tariff relief and expanded farm tradeBeijing says both sides agreed to cut some levies, boost agricultural trade and address longstanding market-access disputes following the Trump/Xi summit  China’s Commerce Ministry said Beijing and Washington agreed to pursue reciprocal tariff reductions on certain products and expand bilateral trade — including agriculture — following the two-day summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. The statement, released Saturday, marked one of the clearest signs yet that both governments are trying to stabilize economic ties after months of trade tensions and geopolitical disputes. The ministry said the two sides will adopt a series of measures aimed at increasing trade flows, though officials did not specify which products would receive tariff relief or how large the reductions could be. Chinese officials said details remain under negotiation, but framed the outcome as evidence that the two countries “can find solutions to problems through dialog and cooperation.” Agriculture emerged as a central focus of the talks. China said it would actively address U.S. concerns involving beef plant import licenses and poultry restrictions, while the United States agreed to review Chinese complaints tied to the detention of dairy and aquatic products, potted plant exports and avian influenza regionalization issues involving Shandong province. Beijing also confirmed plans to purchase U.S. aircraft, though it did not specify manufacturers or quantities. President Trump later said China would buy 200 large aircraft, with potential for up to 750 of Boeing 737 Max jets. The Commerce Ministry also reiterated plans to establish “boards of trade and investment” to help manage bilateral disputes and expand commerce. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer previously said discussions included the possibility of lowering tariffs on at least $30 billion worth of non-sensitive consumer goods. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cited fireworks as an example of low-end imports likely to continue flowing from China regardless of broader strategic tensions. Meanwhile, uncertainty remains over the long-term tariff outlook. President Trump said tariffs were not directly discussed during his meetings with Xi, despite ongoing negotiations between trade teams. Bloomberg Economics warned that if Washington reimposes previously proposed reciprocal tariff rates, China could face another roughly 10% increase in tariff exposure, potentially triggering retaliatory measures from Beijing. —Republicans gain ground in House map fightRedistricting shifts narrow Democrats’ path to reclaiming the House majority, with prediction markets and analysts pointing to a growing GOP advantage heading into 2026  While Democrats remain favored to retake the House majority, Republicans have gained momentum through a series of favorable redistricting developments. Prediction markets have cut Democrats’ chances of winning the House from a high of 86% on April 3 to 74% today.  Meanwhile, Amy Walter estimates redistricting could produce roughly a 10-seat advantage for Republicans. Six weeks ago, Democrats controlled 217 safe, likely or lean seats and needed to capture just one of 16 toss-up races to secure the majority. Now, they hold 207 safe, likely or lean seats and would need to win 11 of 18 toss-up contests.  —Kean’s extended absence raises GOP anxiety over key New Jersey swing seatHouse Republican leaders say they have received little information about Rep. Tom Kean Jr.’s medical-related absence as concerns grow over the party’s ability to defend one of its most competitive districts in the 2026 midterms Senior House Republicans are increasingly uneasy over the prolonged absence of Rep. Tom Kean Jr., whose more than two-month disappearance from Capitol Hill has created growing uncertainty inside the GOP conference at a politically sensitive moment for House Republicans. Kean, a two-term Republican from northwestern New Jersey, last voted in the House on March 5. While his office has repeatedly said he is dealing with a medical issue and plans to return soon, Republican leadership aides and lawmakers say they have received little additional information privately regarding his condition, timeline for return, or political outlook heading into the fall campaign season. The situation has become especially sensitive because Republicans are defending a narrow House majority and Kean represents one of the most competitive districts in the country. President Donald Trump carried the district by only one percentage point in 2024, making it a prime Democratic pickup opportunity in the midterm elections. According to multiple GOP aides, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has spoken with Kean once during the absence, but many inside the leadership structure say they remain largely in the dark about the congressman’s status. That uncertainty is fueling concerns not only about near-term House vote counts, but also about whether Kean will be physically capable of sustaining a demanding reelection campaign in one of the nation’s most expensive media markets. Republicans privately acknowledge that the issue is evolving beyond a temporary health absence and into a broader strategic question about candidate durability and seat retention. The district is already attracting major Democratic attention, with several well-funded challengers competing in a crowded primary field. Despite the uncertainty, Kean’s political operation continues to post solid fundraising numbers. He raised roughly $1.1 million during the last quarter, although several Democratic challengers also posted sizable totals exceeding $500,000 each, signaling what is expected to become a multimillion-dollar battleground race. Kean comes from one of New Jersey’s best-known Republican political families. His father, Thomas Kean, served as governor from 1982 to 1990, while his grandfather served two decades in the House of Representatives. Before winning his congressional seat in 2022 by defeating former Rep. Tom Malinowski, Kean spent years in the New Jersey legislature, including 14 years as Republican leader in the state Senate. Meanwhile, the episode underscores how vulnerable Republicans remain in several suburban swing districts despite recent gains from redistricting and favorable turnout trends. With Democrats still viewed as competitive in the fight for House control, prolonged uncertainty surrounding an incumbent in a frontline district is becoming a growing source of concern for GOP strategists focused on protecting their majority in November.

—The House and Senate are both scheduled to be in this week but will exit at the end of the week for the Memorial Day break.

—Congress faces Iran war debate, transportation deadline, and key primaries

Lawmakers return to Washington with Iran, infrastructure, and election politics dominating agenda

Congress returns to Washington this week facing a packed agenda shaped by the ongoing Iran conflict, rising fuel prices, transportation funding deadlines, and an increasingly political midterm environment as several key primaries take place across the country.

At the top of the agenda will be continued scrutiny of the Trump administration’s handling of the Iran war and the economic fallout tied to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Congressional hearings revealed bipartisan frustration over the lack of clarity surrounding U.S. strategy, military costs, and energy-market disruptions. The Pentagon now estimates the Iran conflict has cost nearly $30 billion, while lawmakers continue pressing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for more detail on war financing, weapons inventories, and diplomatic endgames.

The Senate is also expected to see renewed Democratic efforts to force votes on war powers legislation requiring congressional authorization for prolonged military operations against Iran. Although the latest resolution failed last week, support among several Republicans has grown as fuel prices and inflation pressures intensify.

Energy and transportation policy will remain closely linked this week as lawmakers debate President Donald Trump’s proposal for a temporary suspension of the federal gasoline tax. The administration argues the move would provide relief to consumers facing sharply higher fuel costs, but critics warn it could worsen funding problems for the Highway Trust Fund, which already faces projected insolvency later this decade.

Infrastructure policy will also move to the forefront Thursday when the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee is expected to begin work on a new five-year surface transportation reauthorization package valued at roughly $580 billion. The proposal would cover highways, bridges, transit systems, and related infrastructure programs ahead of the Sept. 30 expiration of the 2021 infrastructure law. Key fights are expected over permitting reform, electric-vehicle fees, transit funding formulas, and how to stabilize long-term highway financing. (See item below for more details.)

Meanwhile, Republicans continue wrestling internally over broader economic messaging as inflation concerns tied to energy prices and housing affordability remain major voter issues heading into the midterms. Some GOP senators are pushing the White House to focus more aggressively on housing costs and economic relief rather than politically controversial spending fights tied to White House renovation and security proposals.

The political calendar also intensifies this week with several closely watched primary elections that could shape the 2026 midterm landscape. Primary contests in states including Kentucky, Oregon, and Idaho will test both progressive and establishment wings within the Democratic Party, while Republicans continue monitoring intra-party divisions tied to President Trump’s influence over congressional races. Several House races are also expected to draw national attention as both parties sharpen strategies ahead of the fall campaign season.

Beyond Capitol Hill, lawmakers and administration officials will continue monitoring details from the U.S./China summit in Beijing, including trade discussions involving agricultural purchases, tariff reductions, and energy cooperation. Markets will also closely watch any developments tied to the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing ceasefire negotiations with Iran, which remain central to global oil prices and broader inflation concerns.

—Agriculture agenda intensifies as Congress eyes Farm Bill 2.0, year-round E15, and trade issues

Biofuels, farm safety net programs, and China trade fallout expected to dominate agricultural debate this week

Agriculture policy will remain a major undercurrent in Washington this week as lawmakers juggle the stalled farm bill, mounting pressure from commodity groups, and renewed Senate debate over year-round E15 gasoline sales following last week’s House vote.

One of the biggest agriculture issues remains the fate of the Senate farm bill negotiations. Senate Ag Committee leaders continue working toward a compromise after the House passed its version — the “Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026” — earlier this spring. Major sticking points include SNAP spending, crop insurance support and conservation funding.

Biofuels policy will also remain front and center after the House narrowly passed nationwide year-round E15 legislation last week. Corn-state lawmakers and ethanol groups are pressuring the Senate to move quickly (not likely), arguing expanded E15 access would boost corn demand, lower gasoline prices, and provide relief to farmers facing weaker margins and rising fertilizer costs amid the Iran war.

However, the issue is exposing divisions among Senate Republicans. Midwestern lawmakers strongly support the measure, while senators from refining states continue warning about higher compliance costs for small refiners and potential disruptions in fuel markets. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is expected to continue searching for a legislative path forward, potentially through the farm bill or another must-pass package.

Livestock and animal agriculture issues are also expected to draw attention. Pork industry groups continue lobbying aggressively over California Proposition 12-related restrictions and broader interstate commerce concerns tied to animal housing standards. Debate surrounding the so-called “Save Our Bacon Act” remains active as lawmakers weigh whether federal legislation should override state-level animal welfare laws affecting pork production.

Trade policy will remain another major agriculture focus following last week’s Trump/Xi summit in Beijing. Farm groups are closely watching implementation details tied to China’s commitments to expand U.S. agricultural imports, renew U.S. beef plant registrations, and potentially reduce tariffs on selected products. Commodity organizations — particularly in soybeans, corn, sorghum, cotton beef, pork, and poultry — are looking for additional clarity from USTR and USDA officials this week.

Meanwhile, USDA officials continue monitoring rising fertilizer and fuel costs tied to Middle East instability. Farmers across the Corn Belt remain concerned about input inflation heading into the summer growing season, especially as crude oil prices remain elevated and global shipping disruptions continue affecting fertilizer markets.

Congressional appropriators are also expected to continue early discussions on USDA funding priorities for fiscal 2027, including agricultural research, conservation programs, rural broadband, animal disease prevention, and implementation funding tied to USDA modernization efforts.

—House eyes major infrastructure push ahead of transportation deadline

Five-year, $580 billion surface transportation bill would fund roads, bridges and transit as lawmakers face a Sept. 30 deadline and mounting political pressures

The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee is preparing to advance a sweeping five-year, $580 billion surface transportation reauthorization package that would fund highways, bridges, transit systems and other infrastructure projects through the end of the decade.

The draft legislation is expected to be reviewed during a committee markup Thursday and would serve as Congress’ next attempt to renew the nation’s core transportation programs before the current authorization expires Sept. 30. The measure is shaping up as one of the largest infrastructure debates since the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law, which authorized roughly $550 billion in new transportation and public works spending.

Lawmakers are expected to battle over several politically sensitive issues, including permitting reform, public transit funding formulas and whether electric vehicles should face new federal user fees to help replenish the Highway Trust Fund. Gasoline tax revenues — historically the backbone of federal highway funding — have increasingly failed to keep pace with infrastructure demands as vehicle fuel efficiency improves and EV adoption grows.

The legislation arrives at a difficult political moment for Congress. Attention on Capitol Hill in recent weeks has been dominated by the Iran war, energy market volatility and appropriations battles, complicating the timeline for major bipartisan legislation. Transportation reauthorizations have traditionally attracted support from both parties because of the economic importance of infrastructure investment and the broad geographic distribution of projects.

Meanwhile, political calculations tied to the 2026 midterm elections could complicate negotiations. Democrats, encouraged by projections that they could regain seats in the House or Senate, may have less incentive to quickly accept Republican-backed terms if they believe a stronger bargaining position could emerge after the elections.

The upcoming debate is also likely to revive broader discussions about permitting delays, environmental reviews and the pace of project delivery — longstanding complaints from both industry groups and state transportation departments. Republicans have pushed for streamlined permitting rules to accelerate construction timelines, while Democrats have emphasized climate resilience, transit access and labor protections.

The transportation package is expected to cover a wide range of programs, including highway formula funding, bridge repair grants, freight and rail improvements, airport connectivity and mass transit assistance for urban systems. Rural lawmakers are also expected to push for greater funding certainty for farm-to-market roads and freight corridors critical to agriculture and energy exports.

Failure to approve a reauthorization before Sept. 30 could force Congress to pass a temporary extension, a scenario transportation advocates warn would create uncertainty for state planning agencies and delay major long-term construction projects.

—Trump targets GOP critics after Cassidy defeat

President Trump celebrates Sen. Bill Cassidy’s primary ouster while escalating attacks on Rep. Thomas Massie ahead of Kentucky’s GOP primary contest.

President Donald Trump on Saturday celebrated the political downfall of Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), tying the Louisiana Republican’s defeat to Cassidy’s 2021 vote to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial. In a series of posts on Truth Social, Trump accused Cassidy of disloyalty and argued the senator’s political career had effectively ended after Louisiana Republicans blocked him from advancing in the GOP primary.

Details: Cassidy was denied a third term by Louisiana Republican primary voters Saturday, as he was projected to finish third behind Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow (R-La.) and state Treasurer John Fleming. With 92% of the vote in, Letlow was leading with 44.8% and Fleming was in second with 28.4%, and were projected to be the winners by the Associated Press — while Cassidy brought up the rear with 24.7%. Letlow and Fleming will now advance to a June 27 runoff, with Letlow favored to secure the nomination on the strength of President Trump’s endorsement.

Quote of note: “His disloyalty to the man who got him elected is now a part of legend, and it’s nice to see that his political career is OVER,” Trump wrote, while thanking Louisiana voters for delivering what he described as a major political rebuke.

Trump then shifted his attention to Rep. Thomas Massie, intensifying a long-running feud with the Kentucky Republican ahead of Tuesday’s primary election. Trump labeled Massie “the worst and most unreliable Republican Congressman in the history of our Country” and urged GOP voters to back challenger Ed Gallrein.

The president praised Gallrein — whom he described as a Kentucky farmer and war hero — as a loyal conservative alternative to Massie. Trump framed Massie’s opposition to portions of his legislative agenda and his criticism of Trump-backed initiatives as evidence of disloyalty to the broader Republican movement.

Trump escalated the rhetoric again Sunday, accusing Massie of opposing tax cuts, border wall funding, military spending and law enforcement priorities. “The Worst Republican Congressman in History,” Trump wrote, calling on Kentucky Republicans to remove Massie from office.

The attacks underscore Trump’s continued effort to reshape the Republican Party around loyalty to his political movement, particularly targeting GOP lawmakers who opposed him during or after the Jan. 6 period or who have resisted parts of his agenda in Congress.

Washington focus shifts to budget battles, reconciliation and china hearings
Congress returns to a packed week of FY 2027 budget hearings, reconciliation markups, aviation safety scrutiny and debates over U.S.-China competition, while the Federal Reserve and global trade issues remain in focus.

Congress heads into the week of May 18 with lawmakers balancing budget reconciliation work, FY 2027 appropriations hearings and a series of national security, trade and transportation hearings. Senate committees are expected to advance reconciliation recommendations tied to the broader GOP fiscal agenda, while House and Senate appropriators continue hearings with top Trump administration officials, including Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche and Acting Labor Secretary Keith Sonderling. 

The administration’s economic agenda will also remain in the spotlight as Federal Reserve officials, including Gov. Christopher Waller and Gov. Michael Barr, deliver remarks in the U.S. and Europe amid continued debate over inflation, tariffs and interest-rate policy. International trade and China policy will receive major attention through hearings and forums examining U.S.-China strategic competition, China’s housing crisis, transatlantic relations and the future of global trade policy.

On Capitol Hill, aviation safety hearings tied to the FAA and post-9/11 transportation security reforms are expected to draw attention following recent aviation incidents. Lawmakers will also examine cybersecurity threats, financial crime enforcement, election security, environmental nonprofit funding and proposals tied to nuclear energy expansion.

Meanwhile, the House and Senate continue advancing FY 2027 spending bills, including Energy and Water, Interior and Transportation appropriations measures. NOAA will release its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook Thursday, while hearings on Army funding, Supreme Court reform proposals and the Iran conflict add to an unusually broad policy agenda.

Politically, the week also features a televised Democratic mayoral debate in Washington, D.C., and continued discussion around Latino voter influence heading into the 2026 midterm cycle.

Daily events: 

•Monday, May 18: Vice President JD Vance travels to Kansas City, Missouri, to highlight the Trump administration’s manufacturing agenda, while Congress begins a busy week with hearings on VA technology modernization and Ticketmaster’s market dominance. Internationally, central bankers gather in Germany for the European Central Bank’s monetary policy forum.

• Tuesday, May 19: Senate committees begin key budget reconciliation markups tied to the GOP fiscal agenda. Appropriators hear from Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche and Acting Labor Secretary Keith Sonderling on the FY 2027 budget. Lawmakers also focus heavily on China, with hearings on CCP-linked scam networks and discussions on China’s economy, trade and geopolitical competition.

Of note: Tuesday’s Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs reconciliation markup could affect agriculture indirectly through federal spending levels, SNAP-related funding discussions and broader rural program financing.

•Wednesday, May 20: The Senate Budget Committee advances reconciliation legislation while House appropriators markup Energy and Water and Legislative Branch spending bills. Capitol Hill hearings will examine post-9/11 intelligence reforms, election security, aviation policy, tax cuts and nuclear energy legislation. Fed Gov. Michael Barr also speaks on consumer financial health.

Of note: The Senate Appropriations Energy and Water Development Subcommittee hearing Wednesday on the FY 2027 budget requests for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Bureau of Reclamation will be important for Western irrigation, water infrastructure and drought management issues affecting farmers and ranchers.

•Thursday, May 21: Congress continues FY 2027 budget hearings with a focus on transportation, veterans affairs and Interior spending. NOAA releases its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, while lawmakers examine cybersecurity threats, Supreme Court reform proposals, housing shortages and financial crime enforcement. Iran policy and U.S./China strategic competition also remain major themes at Washington think tanks and congressional panels.

•Friday, May 22: Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller delivers remarks on the economic outlook in Germany, while Washington policy groups focus on Africa’s critical minerals sector and supply chain security amid broader geopolitical tensions.

Also of note: Trade policy discussions throughout the week — including WITA’s U.S./India trade seminar and Peterson Institute events on China’s economy and trade wars — are likely to include agriculture market access, tariffs and export competitiveness issues.

Meanwhile, energy policy forums tied to oil and gas communities, clean energy and nuclear legislation also matter for agriculture because of ongoing concerns over fertilizer costs, rural energy reliability and biofuel policy. 

—Economic calendar preview
Markets to watch housing, inflation, manufacturing and consumer confidence reports during the week of May 18 as investors assess growth and Fed policy outlook

• Mon., May 18: Housing Market Index
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index will provide an updated snapshot of U.S. homebuilder confidence as elevated mortgage rates, construction costs and affordability pressures continue to pressure the housing sector.

• Tue., May 19: Housing Starts | Pending Home Sales Index
Housing starts and pending home sales data will offer insight into residential construction activity and future home closings as markets gauge the impact of borrowing costs on housing demand.

• Wed., May 20: Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations | FOMC Minutes
The Atlanta Fed’s inflation expectations survey and the release of FOMC minutes will be closely watched for signals on inflation trends, tariff pressures and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook.

•Thur., May 21: Jobless Claims | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing | PMI Composite Flash | KC Fed Manufacturing
Weekly jobless claims and regional factory surveys will provide fresh readings on labor market strength, manufacturing activity and overall business sentiment, while the Flash PMI data will offer an early look at May economic conditions.

• Fri., May 22: Leading Indicators | Consumer Sentiment
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report will help investors assess the outlook for economic growth, recession risks and consumer confidence.

Mon., May 18
• Housing Market Index | Earnings: KL Kepong; Seadrill; Adnoc Drilling; Petrobras 

Tue., May 19

• Housing Starts| Pending Home Sales Index | Earnings: Indian Oil; Ryanair

Wed., May 20

• Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations | FOMC Minutes | Earnings: Nutrien; E.ON; RWE; Vallourec; Verbio

Thur., May 21

• Jobless Claims | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing | PMI Composite Flash | KC Fed Manufacturing  | Earnings: Deere & Co.; Gail India; Easyjet

Fri., May 22

• Leading Indicators | Consumer Sentiment | Earnings: Golden Agri-Resources; Enbridge; Mol

—U.S. agriculture data calendar preview
Key USDA reports this week will provide updated insight into crop conditions, livestock supplies, export demand and food inflation trends as markets continue to monitor weather risks, global trade flows and tightening protein supplies. Traders will closely watch Friday’s cattle and dairy reports alongside weekly export and crop progress data for signs of shifting supply-and-demand fundamentals.

• Mon., May 18: USDA’s weekly AMS Export Inspections report will offer a fresh look at overseas demand for U.S. corn, soybeans and wheat, while NASS Crop Progress will update planting pace and crop conditions across the Corn Belt and Plains. ERS releases on livestock, dairy, poultry, sugar and sweeteners will provide updated supply, demand and price forecasts for key agricultural sectors.

•Tue., May 19: ERS will publish updated Vegetables and Pulses Data along with Fruit and Tree Nut Data, offering insight into production trends, inventories and pricing across specialty crop markets. NASS Chickens & Eggs data will provide an update on egg production and hatchery activity as the poultry sector continues adjusting to disease pressures and feed costs.

•Wed., May 20: NASS Broiler Hatchery data will be watched for signals on future poultry production and meat supplies, particularly as strong consumer demand and export activity support the sector.

• Thur., May 21: USDA’s weekly Export Sales report from FAS will be a major market focus for grain and soybean traders looking for signs of continued global demand. NASS Livestock Slaughter and Slaughter Weekly reports will provide updated processing data for cattle, hogs and other livestock amid tight herd supplies and elevated meat prices.

• Fri., May 22: Friday features one of the week’s heaviest data releases. USDA’s Food Price Outlook will update inflation expectations for grocery and restaurant prices, while NASS reports on Cattle on Feed, Cold Storage, Milk Production and Poultry Slaughter will provide critical insight into meat and dairy supplies. Additional reports covering rice, peanuts and peanut prices will offer updated conditions for specialty crop markets.

Mon., May 18

• AMS. Export Inspections ERS: Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook | Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook NASS: Crop Progress 
• MARS monthly bulletin on European crop conditions
• China’s 2nd batch of April trade data, including grains, sugar, cotton, palm oil, and pork imports
• Holiday: Canada

Tue., May 19

• ERS: Vegetables and Pulses Data | Fruit & Tree Nut Data NASS: Chickens & Eggs 
• EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data

Wed., May 20

• NASS: Broiler Hatchery  
• Cina’s 3rd batch of April trade data, including country breakdowns for energy and commodities

• Malaysia May 1-20 palm oil exports

Thur., May 21

• FAS: Export Sales  NASS: Livestock Slaughter | Slaughter Weekly
• IGC grain market report
• Holiday: Chile
• Earnings: Deere & Co.

Fri., May 22

• ERS: Food Price OutlookNASS: Cattle on Feed | Cold Storage | Milk Production | Poultry Slaughter | CE: All Rice, Peanuts | Peanut Prices
• FranceAgriMer weekly crop conditions data

—Energy markets eye inventories, OPEC outlook and rig activity
Key energy conferences, EIA reports and futures expirations highlight a busy week for oil, gas and global energy markets.

Overview: Energy markets will focus heavily on supply-demand signals during the week of May 18 as traders monitor major industry conferences, weekly inventory data and fresh outlooks from OPEC and the International Energy Agency. Attention also remains centered on volatility tied to the Iran conflict and disruptions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, which continue to influence crude prices, fuel markets and global trade flows.

• May 18: Monday’s schedule features several major global energy conferences, including the Singapore Ecosperity Conference, the Australian Energy Producers Conference and the Argus Rio Crude Conference, alongside the expiration of June WTI calendar spread options.

• May 19: Tuesday brings the closely watched API U.S. inventory report, while traders also monitor the expiration of June WTI crude futures contracts. International attention will center on China Energy Week in Beijing, the Flame gas/LNG conference in Amsterdam and the World Hydrogen Summit in Rotterdam as governments and companies assess energy security, LNG supply and low-carbon fuel strategies.

• May 20: Wednesday is the busiest reporting day of the week, highlighted by the EIA Petroleum Status Report and Weekly Ethanol Production data. Markets will also digest the IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2026 and OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report for updated forecasts on oil demand, supply disruptions and electric vehicle adoption trends. Recent EIA data have shown falling U.S. crude and gasoline inventories alongside stronger exports and tighter global supplies.

•May 21: Thursday’s focus shifts to the EIA Natural Gas Storage Report and Singapore oil-product stockpile data, both important gauges for global fuel balances and LNG demand heading into summer. June WTI crude options also expire Thursday.

•May 22: Friday wraps up the week with the Baker-Hughes Rig Count and the latest Commitments of Traders reports from ICE and the CFTC, offering insight into hedge fund and commercial positioning across crude oil, refined products and natural gas markets.

Mon., May 18

• Singapore Ecosperity Conference; runs through Thursday | Australian Energy Producers Conference; runs through Thursday | Argus Rio Crude Conference; runs through Wednesday | WTI CSOs for June expire. | Holidays: Canada; Venezuela

Tue., May 19

• API US inventory report China Energy Week, Beijing; runs through Friday | Flame gas/LNG conference, Amsterdam; runs through Thursday | World Hydrogen Summit, Rotterdam; runs through Thursday |   Utility Week Live, Birmingham; runs through Wednesday | WTI June futures expire | Holidays: Canada; Venezuela
 

Wed., May 20

• EIA Petroleum Status Report | Weekly Ethanol Production | Genscape ARA inventories | IEA Global EV Outlook 2026 report| OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

Thur., May 21

• EIA Natural Gas Report | Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data | WTI June options expire | Holidays: Chile

Fri., Mah 22
Baker-Hughes Rig Count | ICE weekly Commitments of Tradersreport for Brent, gasoil | CFTC Commitments of Traders | Holidays: Indonesia