Congress Returns as Key Issues Mount 

Warsh as Fed chair | Year-round E15 | Fertilizer hearing | Trump/Xi summit | USDA winter wheat survey and WASDE | Iran war update

Link: Weekend Updates, May 9:

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, May 9
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, May 9

Topics discussed: 

1. Weekly Markets
2. Argentine soyoil discount to U.S. hits decade low
3. 2026 Wheat Quality Council’s HRW Tour May 11-13
4. Iran war ceasefire? 
5. Tuesday: Crop Report & WASDE
6. Congress returns… Wed.: Year-round E15 Vote in House?
7. Thur./Fri.: Trump/Xi summit in Beijing
8. Another negative court ruling on Trump tariffs
9. Tariff refunds begin
10.  More ag disaster and farmer aid?
11.  $1 bil. farmer bridge payments for specialty crops/sugar this week?
12.  Trump investigation of meat packers/ Agri Stats case 
13.  Fertilizer hearing in Senate Ag Committee Tue., May 12
14.  Trump met with Brazil’s President Lula 
15.  Politics: Va. Supreme Court rejects state redistricting effort 
     

TOP STORIES

— Iran sends response to U.S. ceasefire proposal; Trump responds: Iran signaled willingness to focus negotiations on halting hostilities and reopening Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, while President Donald Trump warned Tehran against “playing games” after Iran reportedly refused to discuss its nuclear program.

— Iran ceasefire proposal signals push for pause rather than peace: Emerging U.S.-Iran negotiations increasingly resemble a temporary armistice focused on shipping security and de-escalation rather than a broader settlement of nuclear, sanctions, and regional security disputes.

— Trump administration signals openness to gas tax suspension as fuel prices surge: Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the White House is considering “all ideas,” including suspending the federal gas tax, as gasoline prices remain sharply elevated due to the Iran war and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

— China’s exports surge as Iran war fears trigger global stockpiling: China’s exports surged far beyond expectations in April as companies worldwide rushed to secure Chinese goods and components amid fears of worsening supply disruptions and higher energy costs tied to the Iran conflict.

— USAID shutdown leaves $19 billion in unspent funds amid humanitarian backlash: Democrats and aid groups criticized the Trump administration after Congress was informed that billions in unused USAID funding remain tied up following the agency’s dismantling.

WASHINGTON THIS WEEK

— Congress faces a packed week On Fed leadership, E15 vote, China summit, fertilizer hearing and key USDA reports: Lawmakers return to Washington confronting major debates over Fed leadership, year-round E15 sales, government funding, fertilizer affordability, and the upcoming Trump-Xi summit in Beijing.

— Trump/Xi summit set to focus on trade, Taiwan and Hormuz risks: President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to focus on trade tensions, agricultural purchases, rare earths, Taiwan, and the Iran conflict during their high-stakes Beijing summit.

— Senate delegation visit signals Beijing’s Taiwan priorities ahead of Trump/Xi summit: Chinese leaders used meetings with Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) and other senators to reinforce Beijing’s Taiwan priorities while preparations accelerate for Trump’s visit to China.

— Tariff refunds poised to begin as CBP prepares repayment process: U.S. Customs and Border Protection is preparing to begin tariff refunds tied to court rulings overturning portions of Trump-era emergency tariffs, potentially returning billions to importers.

— How red became Republican and blue became Democratic: The familiar red-state and blue-state political map emerged gradually through decades of inconsistent television election coverage before becoming firmly established after the disputed 2000 Bush/Gore election.

KEY EVENTS

— Congress, the Trump/Xi summit, FY 2027 budget hearings, fertilizer policy, energy, AI, and Iran war fallout dominate the week in Washington: Washington’s agenda this week centers on budget battles, fertilizer policy, energy markets, U.S.-China tensions, and geopolitical fallout from the Iran conflict.
 

ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS

— Weekly economic preview — key data for week of May 11: Markets will closely monitor inflation, retail sales, manufacturing activity, and energy-driven price pressures for signals on economic momentum and Federal Reserve policy.

AG REPORTS

— Key agriculture reports to watch this week: Traders are preparing for major USDA reports on winter wheat production, WASDE supply-and-demand estimates, export demand, crop progress, and livestock trends.

ENERGY REPORTS

— Energy market preview: key reports and events to watch this week: Energy markets will focus on oil inventories, OPEC and IEA forecasts, natural gas storage, rig counts, and ongoing geopolitical risks tied to the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz.

—Congress faces a packed week on Fed leadership, E15 vote, China summit, fertilizer hearing and key USDA reports

Lawmakers return to Washington this week confronting a crowded policy agenda spanning monetary policy, agriculture, trade, biofuels, fertilizer and federal spending, while global markets also focus on the high-stakes summit later this week in Beijing between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

One of the biggest developments on Capitol Hill will be the expected Senate confirmation vote on Kevin Warsh to become the next chair of the Federal Reserve, replacing Jerome Powell when Powell’s term expires May 15. Markets are closely watching whether Warsh signals a more aggressive approach to rate cuts, balance-sheet reductions, or broader changes to Fed policy communications as the administration pushes for lower borrowing costs amid slowing economic growth and war-related inflation pressures.

In the House, agricultural and biofuels groups are intensely focused on a promised May 13 vote tied to nationwide year-round sales of E15 gasoline. The legislation would permanently allow summer sales of gasoline blended with 15% ethanol and has become a major priority for corn-state lawmakers and ethanol producers. The issue has also exposed divisions within Republican ranks between farm-state lawmakers, refiners, and fiscal conservatives concerned about regulatory and budget implications.

Agriculture markets will also be watching Tuesday’s closely anticipated USDA Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports. The NASS report is the first survey estimate of the winter wheat crop. The reports are expected to provide the first major supply-and-demand revisions of the growing season, with traders monitoring U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks, export demand, South American production estimates, and any revisions tied to weather concerns, fertilizer costs, and global trade disruptions.

Meanwhile, congressional leaders continue negotiations over government funding measures and a broader budget reconciliation package tied to President Trump’s homeland security agenda. Republicans remain divided over spending reductions, tax policy, border security funding, energy provisions, and agricultural priorities, while Democrats continue criticizing the scope of proposed cuts and reconciliation tactics.

Appropriators are also beginning work on fiscal 2027 spending bills amid pressure to avoid another round of stopgap funding fights later this year.

The international spotlight later this week will shift to Beijing, where President Trump and Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet Thursday and Friday for a high-stakes summit expected to focus on trade tensions, Taiwan, rare earth minerals, agriculture purchases, energy security, and the ongoing Iran conflict. Analysts expect discussions surrounding Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans, sorghum, corn, beef, poultry, and Boeing aircraft, along with negotiations over technology restrictions and critical mineral access. The Strait of Hormuz and global energy disruptions tied to the Iran war are also expected to feature prominently in the talks. The summit is widely viewed as an effort to stabilize U.S.-China relations rather than produce a sweeping reset, though markets will closely watch for any agreements tied to trade truce extensions, export controls, Taiwan language, or broader economic cooperation. (See next item for more details.)

—Trump/Xi summit set to focus on trade, Taiwan and Hormuz risks

High-stakes Beijing meeting expected to center on extending the U.S.-China trade truce, agricultural purchases, rare earth disputes, Taiwan tensions and efforts to stabilize shipping through the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran conflict

President Donald Trump will travel to Beijing on May 14-15 for a high-stakes summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, as both sides seek to manage mounting geopolitical and economic tensions while preserving a fragile U.S./China trade truce. Discussions are expected to center on extending the temporary trade framework, expanding Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural commodities and commercial aircraft, resolving disputes over rare earth minerals and technology exports, and addressing flashpoints involving Taiwan and Iran.

The meeting is expected to produce limited stabilization measures rather than any sweeping reset in bilateral relations. Potential outcomes could include a six- to 12-month extension of the current trade truce, renewed Chinese commitments to purchase U.S. soybeans, beef and other commodities, and a preliminary framework for future Boeing aircraft orders.

One of the keys will be what enforcement mechanism is in place to make sure China lives up to any of its purchase commitments because during Trump’s first term they did not.

Taiwan is likely to emerge as the summit’s most politically sensitive issue. Beijing is expected to press Washington for stronger opposition to Taiwanese independence, although U.S. officials have indicated there will be no formal change to longstanding U.S. policy toward Taiwan.

U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz on what he expects from conversations between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, on Fox News Sunday: “I think it’s going to be a much broader conversation. You have the number one, number two economies and militaries in the world. The heads of state should be coming together not only in this forum, but President Xi’s visit back to the United States and other forums like APEC and ASEAN. So this will be one of several. I think you will see conversations around a board of investment, a board of trade, Boeing deals. President Trump always leads with commercial diplomacy that ultimately affects America first and looks at it through that lens.”

Meanwhile, the war involving Iran and ongoing disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz are also expected to weigh heavily on the talks. Washington is likely to urge Beijing to use its leverage with Tehran to support efforts aimed at reopening the strait and restoring secure commercial shipping lanes. China shares concerns about maritime stability — particularly after one of its oil tankers was attacked on May 4 — but Beijing is also expected to avoid any steps that could be perceived domestically or internationally as aligning too closely with Washington against Iran, complicating the prospects for meaningful cooperation on the issue.

—Senate delegation visit signals Beijing’s Taiwan priorities ahead of Trump/Xi summit

Chinese leaders use meetings with Sen. Steve Daines to press U.S. on Taiwan as major CEOs prepare for Beijing visit

A delegation of five U.S. senators led by Sen. Steve Daines met Thursday with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, legislative chairman Zhao Leji, and top diplomat Wang Yi, concluding a five-day visit to China that comes just days before President Donald Trump is scheduled to travel to Beijing for a high-stakes summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14-15.

Beijing increasingly views Daines as a valuable backchannel to Washington ahead of the Trump/Xi meeting, particularly as both sides seek to stabilize a fragile trade truce while managing growing geopolitical tensions.

Both Li and Zhao emphasized Taiwan during the meetings, describing the issue as one of China’s “core interests.” At a minimum, Beijing is seeking assurances that Washington will continue adhering to the longstanding One China policy. Chinese officials also appear to view Trump’s upcoming visit as an opportunity to press for additional concessions related to Taiwan and U.S. arms sales to the island.

Meanwhile, preparations are accelerating for Trump’s Beijing trip. Semafor reported that U.S. officials are assembling a high-profile CEO delegation to accompany the president during the state visit.

Executives from major American companies — including NVIDIA, Apple, ExxonMobil, Boeing, Qualcomm, Blackstone, Citigroup, and Visa — are reportedly among the growing list of invitees.

Potential economic deliverables under discussion reportedly include a large Boeing aircraft deal involving as many as 500 737 MAX jets, along with renewed Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and other agricultural products. However, sources indicate Beijing is unlikely to secure approval for Chinese electric vehicle manufacturing investments in the United States, despite broader discussions surrounding trade and investment cooperation.

—Tariff refunds poised to begin as CBP prepares repayment process

Importers await billions in potential duty repayments following court rulings on Trump-era tariffs

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is signaling that tariff refunds tied to recently invalidated Trump administration tariffs could begin flowing as early as this week, marking a major development for importers, manufacturers, retailers, and agricultural businesses that have spent months awaiting clarity on the repayment process.

The refunds stem from court decisions that struck down portions of the administration’s emergency tariff actions imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Those rulings opened the door for companies to reclaim duties paid on a wide range of imported goods, with analysts estimating the potential refund pool could exceed $160 billion.

CBP recently launched and expanded use of its CAPE portal system to process refund claims and communicate with importers, customs brokers, and trade attorneys. Industry groups say companies are rushing to verify entries, reconcile customs paperwork, and determine how much they may recover from past shipments.

The refund process is expected to be especially significant for sectors heavily exposed to global supply chains, including agriculture, fertilizer inputs, machinery, consumer goods, electronics, chemicals, and industrial manufacturing. Importers that paid elevated duties during the height of the tariff escalation could receive substantial repayments if their entries qualify under the court rulings.

Trade lawyers caution that the process may not be immediate or seamless. Companies will likely face detailed documentation requirements, audits, and possible disputes over which tariff lines qualify for repayment. Some importers have also complained that duties continued to be assessed on certain shipments even after the court decisions, creating confusion throughout the trade community.

Meanwhile, the looming refunds are creating growing budget and political implications in Washington. Tariff revenues had become a significant source of federal income during the trade conflict years, and large-scale repayments could complicate fiscal planning as lawmakers simultaneously negotiate spending bills and budget reconciliation measures.

The development also adds another layer of uncertainty ahead of the July U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement review and broader trade negotiations involving China and the European Union. Businesses are increasingly questioning whether future administrations can rely on emergency authorities for broad tariff actions without facing heightened judicial scrutiny.

For agricultural markets, the refund process is being closely watched because tariffs affected everything from fertilizer and crop inputs to machinery components and export-related supply chains. Farm groups and agribusinesses argue that repayment of improperly collected duties could ease some cost pressures that intensified during the Iran war-driven surge in energy and transportation expenses.

Meanwhile, the broader legal and policy battle over executive tariff authority is far from settled. Additional litigation remains active in federal courts, and the administration could pursue alternative trade authorities if it seeks to maintain pressure on strategic imports or foreign competitors.

—How red became Republican and blue became Democratic

The modern U.S. political color map emerged gradually after decades of inconsistent media use, election coverage experimentation, and the disputed 2000 presidential election

For much of American history, the Republican and Democratic parties were not consistently associated with the colors red and blue. The now-familiar political map — red states for Republicans and blue states for Democrats — is a relatively recent creation that only became firmly entrenched in the public consciousness during the early 2000s.

Today, the color scheme feels permanent and deeply symbolic. Republicans are routinely described as “red,” Democrats as “blue,” and elections are analyzed through terms like “red wave,” “blue wall,” or “purple states.” Yet for decades, the opposite color assignments were often used, and many news organizations changed the colors from one election cycle to the next.

The evolution of the modern color system was shaped by television technology, Cold War symbolism, media standardization, and ultimately the prolonged 2000 presidential election battle between George W. Bush and Al Gore.

Early political color use was inconsistent. Before television became dominant, American political parties generally did not rely heavily on color branding. Campaigns used patriotic colors — red, white, and blue — interchangeably. Newspapers often printed election maps in black and white, making standardized color coding unnecessary.

When television networks began using color graphics more extensively in the 1960s and 1970s, there was still no agreed-upon convention assigning colors to either party. Different networks used different systems, and some even reversed the colors from election to election.

In several elections during the 1970s and 1980s, Republican victories were shown in blue while Democratic wins appeared in red. Other networks did the exact opposite. Some outlets intentionally alternated the colors to avoid implying ideological meaning.

NBC News, for example, often used blue for Republicans because blue was associated with incumbency, stability, or conservatism. CBS and ABC sometimes used different combinations entirely. Newspapers and wire services also lacked a common standard.

As late as the 1996 presidential election between President Bill Clinton and Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kan.), there was still no universal agreement on which party was red or blue.

Cold war politics also influenced perceptions. Part of the hesitation surrounding the color red stemmed from its association with communism and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Globally, red had long been associated with left-wing movements, socialism, communism, labor revolutions, and Marxist parties. The Soviet Union, Communist China, and many European socialist parties used red flags and imagery prominently.

Because Democrats were generally viewed as the more liberal U.S. party, some observers thought assigning Democrats the color red would create ideological confusion or political controversy during the Cold War era. Meanwhile, blue was often associated internationally with conservatism, nationalism, or center-right parties in some Western democracies.

Ironically, modern American usage ultimately reversed much of the global norm. In many European countries today, conservative parties are still often associated with blue, while socialist or labor-oriented parties use red.

Television networks helped shape the shift. By the 1980s and 1990s, major television networks increasingly favored computerized electoral maps to explain presidential election results in real time. These maps required clear visual distinctions between the two major parties. While networks still lacked uniformity, some began gravitating toward Republicans as red and Democrats as blue because the contrast appeared visually intuitive on television screens.

Political analysts have noted that red visually conveyed intensity, urgency, and geographic spread effectively on national maps, particularly across large Republican-leaning rural states in the South and Great Plains. Meanwhile, blue often appeared calmer and more urban-centered, visually fitting Democratic strongholds along the coasts and in major metropolitan areas.

Still, the association remained fluid until one election fundamentally changed the political lexicon.

The 2000 Bush/Gore election cemented the modern color scheme. The disputed 2000 presidential election between Gov. George W. Bush (R-Texas) and Vice President Al Gore transformed political color branding permanently. On election night, television networks broadly used red for Republicans and blue for Democrats. When the election result remained unresolved because of the contested Florida recount, Americans spent more than a month staring continuously at electoral maps on television.

News coverage repeatedly referenced “red states” and “blue states” as analysts tracked legal disputes, recount scenarios, and Electoral College projections. Because the election dragged on for weeks rather than ending overnight, the terminology became deeply embedded in public discourse.

The repeated visual exposure proved decisive. By the time the Supreme Court effectively ended the recount battle in the landmark 2000 case Bush v. Gore, the red-Republican and blue-Democrat framework had become familiar to millions of Americans.

Afterward, major news organizations standardized the color scheme to avoid confusion for viewers. The modern system quickly spread into newspapers, online media, campaign branding, polling analysis, and academic political science research.

Political branding quickly adapted. Following the 2000 election, both parties increasingly embraced their assigned colors for fundraising, campaign merchandise, advertising, and identity politics.

Republicans leaned into “red state America” branding, often emphasizing rural, evangelical, and conservative cultural identity. Democrats similarly adopted “blue state” imagery tied to urban areas, coastal regions, and progressive politics. By the mid-2000s, the colors had evolved from simple television graphics into shorthand for broader political, cultural, and geographic divisions in the United States. Terms such as “deep red,” “solid blue,” “swing state,” and “purple America” became commonplace in election analysis. Campaign consultants, pollsters, and strategists also began relying heavily on the color system to communicate voter coalitions and Electoral College trends.

The modern map can oversimplify U.S. politics. Despite its widespread use, many political scientists argue the red-blue framework oversimplifies the country’s political landscape. Even heavily Republican states contain large Democratic urban centers, while strongly Democratic states often have deeply conservative rural regions. The rise of county-level mapping and demographic analysis has shown that the political divide is often more urban-versus-rural than purely state-based. Analysts also caution that the modern color system can unintentionally reinforce perceptions of extreme polarization by visually dividing the country into two rigid camps.

But a veteran Washington analyst says, “I don’t believe in things just happening… I think the media decided to give the Ds blue and Rs red to disassociate Ds with communism and leftwing politics in the minds of voters. The Rs do what Rs do: just dumbly go along. I do think the media tries to muddy the waters to act as though it was never clear cut but historically it has certainly been clear cut that blue means conservative and red means commie.”

Still, the red-versus-blue framework remains one of the most recognizable features of American political culture — a convention born not from longstanding tradition, but from decades of television experimentation and one of the closest presidential elections in U.S. history.

—Congress, the Trump/Xi summit, FY 2027 budget hearings, fertilizer policy, energy, AI, and Iran war fallout dominate the week in Washington. 

Mon., May 11: Washington opens the week with a heavy focus on geopolitics, U.S./China competition, and the economic fallout from the Iran war. Think tanks and policy groups are hosting major discussions on the Panama Canal, Taiwan defense strategy, Russia’s role in the Iran conflict, AI and disaster management, and the future of U.S.-China competition.

A closely watched policy event is a virtual discussion hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies on the economic impacts of the Iran war, particularly as concerns continue to build around energy markets, shipping disruptions, fertilizer costs, and global supply chains.

The Hudson Institute also hosts a major discussion on defending Taiwan, while Brookings examines Capitol Hill priorities surrounding U.S.-China competition.

Meanwhile, House Natural Resources Committee Democratic staff preview Wednesday’s expected confrontation with Interior Secretary Doug Burgum over the administration’s FY 2027 budget request.

Tue., May 12: Tuesday marks the start of an intense week of congressional budget hearings and agriculture policy scrutiny.

The Senate Ag Committee will hold a key hearing on fertilizer industry stability and affordability, an increasingly important issue as fertilizer prices remain elevated due to disruptions tied to the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz shipping concerns. The hearing comes amid ongoing Trump administration discussions about expanding domestic fertilizer production capacity.

Defense spending also moves to center stage as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine testify before the Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee on the Pentagon’s FY 2027 budget request.

Another major focus will be law enforcement and federal security agencies, with FBI Director Kash Patel and other senior officials testifying before Senate appropriators on funding requests for the FBI, DEA, ATF, and U.S. Marshals Service.

The Senate Judiciary Committee also begins markup of budget reconciliation legislation, which could become one of the year’s defining partisan legislative fights.

Outside Congress, attention will increasingly shift toward the upcoming May 14–15 summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. Multiple Washington events Tuesday will preview the summit and examine trade tensions, Taiwan, rare earths, agriculture purchases, and Iran-related diplomacy.

Wed., May 13: Wednesday is one of the busiest hearing days of the week, dominated by FY 2027 budget oversight across energy, environmental, nuclear, and agricultural agencies.

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin testifies before Senate appropriators regarding the Environmental Protection Agency budget, while Energy Secretary Chris Wright appears before the Senate Armed Services Committee on nuclear security and atomic energy defense activities.

The Senate Ag appropriations panel will hear testimony from FDA Commissioner Martin Makary on the FDA budget request, while the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee examines the Forest Service budget.

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum faces lawmakers before the House Natural Resources Committee in a hearing likely to focus heavily on energy development, public lands, permitting reform, and administration priorities surrounding minerals and domestic production.

Energy reliability and permitting reform also emerge as key themes, with the House Energy and Commerce Committee holding a hearing on transmission permitting and affordable power.

Meanwhile, Senate Homeland Security lawmakers hold a politically charged hearing on COVID whistleblower allegations.

The House is also expected to continue movement toward a promised vote related to year-round E15 fuel legislation, which remains tied to broader debates surrounding Farm Bill 2.0, biofuels policy, and reconciliation strategy. The House farm bill advanced after pesticide-related language was removed amid opposition from MAHA-aligned activists.

Thur., May 14: Thursday’s dominant story is the beginning of President Donald Trump’s two-day summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, one of the most consequential geopolitical meetings of the year. Trade, Taiwan, rare earth minerals, agricultural purchases, Boeing aircraft sales, AI policy, and Iran war diplomacy are all expected to be central topics.

The summit comes amid ongoing tensions surrounding China’s ties to Iran and concerns over stability in the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts expect discussions to focus more on stabilizing relations than achieving a sweeping reset in U.S.-China ties.

Back in Washington, Congress continues appropriations work with another HUD budget hearing and a Senate Banking Committee markup on digital asset market legislation.

The House Judiciary Committee also examines sanctuary policies in Fairfax County, Virginia, while House Foreign Affairs lawmakers review NATO security challenges in Eastern Europe and the Baltics.

Energy, climate, and housing risk issues also remain active topics through multiple think tank forums and policy discussions.

Fri., May 15: Friday closes the week with the conclusion of the Trump-Xi summit and immediate analysis of what — if anything — the meeting accomplished.

Washington analysts will closely watch for announcements involving agricultural purchases, Boeing aircraft deals, rare earth access, tariff truce extensions, or Taiwan-related understandings. Reuters reported that possible Chinese commitments on soybeans, poultry, and beef purchases are among the issues under discussion.

The House Appropriations Energy and Water Subcommittee also advances FY 2027 spending legislation through markup.

Meanwhile, policy groups will host discussions on North Korea diplomacy, Forest Service reorganization, and dollarization trends in Latin America.

Overall, the week is expected to be dominated by three overarching themes: escalating FY 2027 budget battles, the Trump/Xi summit and broader U.S./China tensions, and continuing fallout from the Iran war on energy, agriculture, trade, and global supply chains.

—Weekly economic preview — key data for week of May 11.

Inflation data, consumer spending, and manufacturing activity headline a busy week for markets

—Markets will focus heavily on inflation and consumer demand data during the week of May 11, with investors watching for signs that higher energy costs tied to the Iran war and ongoing tariff pressures are beginning to flow more forcefully into the broader U.S. economy. Reports on consumer inflation, producer prices, retail sales, and industrial activity will likely shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy under incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Mon., May 11: The week begins quietly with Existing Home Sales, which will provide another look at the housing market amid elevated mortgage rates and affordability pressures. Investors will also monitor earnings from companies tied to agriculture, offshore drilling, and energy markets, including Mosaic, Seadrill, Adnoc Drilling, and Petrobras.

Tue., May 12: Attention turns to inflation with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), one of the week’s most important reports. Markets will be watching closely for additional energy-driven inflation pressures and signs tariffs are feeding into consumer prices. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index will also offer insight into hiring plans, pricing power, and sentiment among smaller firms facing higher borrowing and input costs.

Wed., May 13: The Producer Price Index (PPI-FD) will provide another key inflation reading by tracking wholesale price pressures across the economy. Traders will look for evidence that rising energy, transportation, and fertilizer costs are moving further through supply chains. Earnings from Nutrien and Verbio could also provide important signals on global fertilizer and biofuels markets.

Thur., May 14: Thursday brings one of the busiest data days of the week. Retail Sales will serve as a major gauge of consumer spending strength, while Jobless Claims will offer an updated snapshot of labor market conditions. Markets will also receive Business Inventories data along with Import and Export Prices, both of which could reflect ongoing global supply disruptions and tariff impacts tied to the Iran war and trade tensions.

Fri., May 15: The week closes with manufacturing-focused reports, including the Empire State Manufacturing Survey and Industrial Production data. Investors will watch for signs that factory activity is slowing under the weight of higher energy prices, elevated borrowing costs, and weaker global demand. Earnings from Enbridge and Mol may also provide additional insight into energy infrastructure and fuel market conditions.

Mon., May 11

• Existing Home Sales |  Earnings: Mosaic; Seadrill; Adnoc Drilling; Petrobras 

Tue., May 12

• NFIB Small Business Optimism Index | CPI| Earnings: EnBW; Adnoc Gas

Wed., May 13

• PPI-FD | Earnings: Nutrien; E.ON; RWE; Vallourec; Verbio

Thur., May 14

• Jobless Claims | Retail Sales | Business Inventories | Import & Export Prices | Earnings: GrainCorp; MBR; Cosan; National Grid; Helleniq; ENEOS

Fri., May 15

• Empire State Manufacturing | Industrial Production | Earnings: Golden Agri-Resources; Enbridge; Mol

—Key agriculture reports to watch this week

Markets will focus on USDA winter wheat crop estimate and supply-and-demand updates, global trade flows, crop conditions, and livestock demand signals during a packed mid-May reporting week 

Mon., May 11 — Crop conditions and export flow

USDA’s weekly AMS Export Inspections report will provide a fresh look at grain and oilseed shipment pace as traders monitor whether U.S. exports remain competitive amid elevated global freight and energy costs.

Meanwhile, NASS Crop Progress will be one of the most closely watched reports of the week, offering updated planting progress, emergence conditions, and weather impacts across the Corn Belt and Plains. Markets will pay particular attention to corn and soybean planting pace, along with winter wheat condition ratings after recent weather volatility.

Outside Washington, the HRW wheat tour begins in Kansas and  National Rural Lenders Association Spring Educational Conference in Memphis, Tenn., through Wednesday.

Tue., May 12 — USDA winter wheat crop estimate * supply-and-demand 

Tuesday brings the week’s marquee event with NASS’ first survey-based estimate of the winter wheat crop and the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB). The report will provide updated forecasts for U.S. and global corn, soybean, and wheat supplies, demand, exports, and ending stocks. Traders will also closely monitor any revisions tied to the Iran war’s impact on fertilizer costs, energy markets, and global trade flows.

FAS will release its World Markets and Trade reports for cotton, grains, and oilseeds, along with World Agricultural Production estimates that update crop prospects across key exporting nations. The annual Cotton Ginnings report will offer insight into processing activity and cotton demand trends. ERS Meat Price Spreads will also give a read on consumer meat demand and retail margins.

Wed., May 13 — Dairy, feed, and livestock demand signals

ERS releases Wednesday will focus on dairy markets, feed demand, and season-average farm price forecasts. The Dairy Monthly Tables and Dairy Quarterly Data reports will provide updated production, stocks, and price information as dairy producers continue to navigate elevated feed and energy costs. Wheat Data and the Feed Grains Database will offer deeper insight into usage trends and livestock feed demand. NASS Broiler Hatchery data will also be watched closely for indications of poultry sector expansion and feed consumption trends.

Thur., May 14 — Export demand and commodity outlooks

Weekly Export Sales data from FAS will remain a major market driver, particularly for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and soymeal. Traders will watch closely for signs of Chinese buying activity ahead of the Trump/Xi summit in Beijing May 14-15.

ERS will release updated monthly outlooks for cotton and wool, oil crops, feed grains, wheat, and rice. These reports often provide important detail behind USDA balance sheets and help shape expectations for acreage, trade, and domestic demand. NASS Slaughter Weekly data will also offer insight into cattle and hog processing levels and overall protein supply trends.

Fri., May 15 — Peanut market update

Friday’s NASS Peanut Prices report will provide updated pricing data for producers and buyers as markets monitor edible oil demand, export competition, and crop profitability heading into the summer growing season.

Mon., May 11

• AMS. Export Inspections NASS: Crop Progress 
• National Rural Lenders Association Spring Educational Conference in Memphis, Tenn., through Wednesday.
• Wheat Quality Council hard red winter wheat tour begins.

Tue., May 12

• FAS:  Cotton: World Markets and Trade | Grains: World Markets and Trade | Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade | World Agricultural Production  ERS: Meat Price Spreads  WAOB: WASDE  NASS: Crop Production | Cotton Ginnings – Annual 

• Plant Based Products Council Ag Bioeconomy Policy Summit and members meeting in Washington, through Wednesday.

Wed., May 13

• ERS: Dairy Monthly Tables and Dairy Quarterly Data | Season-Average Price Forecasts |  Wheat Data | Feed Grains Database NASS: Broiler Hatchery

Thur., May 14

• FAS: Export Sales  ERS: Cotton and Wool Outlook  | Oil Crops Outlook | Feed Outlook | Wheat Outlook | Rice Outlook NASS: Slaughter Weekly
 

Fri., May 15

• NASS: Peanut Prices

—Energy market preview: key reports and events to watch this week

Key reports, inventories, and global events to watch during the week of may 11

Mon., May 11: Geopolitics and sanctions risks in focus

Energy markets begin the week watching the European Union Foreign Affairs Council meeting in Brussels, where discussions on Ukraine and the Middle East could influence sanctions policy, crude flows, and broader energy security concerns. Traders will continue monitoring developments tied to the Iran conflict and any signals regarding Russian energy restrictions or shipping disruptions. Markets may see lighter trading volumes because of holidays in Russia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan, all important energy-producing regions.

Tue., May 12 — Inventory expectations and demand outlooks

Attention turns to the American Petroleum Institute’s weekly U.S. inventory report, which provides an early snapshot of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate stock changes ahead of official government data. The Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook will also be closely watched for updated forecasts on U.S. crude production, global demand growth, refining activity, and price expectations amid continued geopolitical volatility.

Meanwhile, the IATA Aviation Energy Forum in Paris will focus on jet fuel demand, sustainable aviation fuels, and airline fuel supply concerns as the Iran war continues to disrupt refining balances. In Houston, the TPH & Co. Hotter ‘N Hell Energy Conference is expected to generate discussion around shale production, capital spending, LNG exports, and energy infrastructure investment. ICE May gasoil futures expiration could contribute to volatility in refined-product markets. Asian holidays in China, South Korea, and Japan may somewhat reduce regional trading activity.

Wed., May 13 — Major oil market data day

Wednesday brings the week’s most influential energy data releases. The EIA Petroleum Status Report will provide official U.S. inventory figures for crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and refinery utilization, all key indicators for market direction. Traders will also watch weekly ethanol production data for signs of fuel demand trends and biofuel blending activity.

Globally, both the International Energy Agency and OPEC release their monthly oil market reports, offering updated forecasts for supply, demand, inventories, and spare capacity. Markets will look for any revisions tied to Middle East disruptions, global economic growth, and Chinese demand recovery. Genscape ARA inventory data will also provide insight into refined-product storage levels in Europe’s Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub.

Thur., May 14 — Natural gas and refined products in focus

Natural gas markets will center on the EIA’s weekly storage report, a critical indicator as traders assess summer cooling demand and LNG export strength. Singapore’s weekly oil-product stockpile data will offer another measure of Asian fuel demand and regional supply conditions.

WTI June options expiration may increase volatility in crude futures trading as investors reposition ahead of contract rollover. Holidays in Indonesia and Norway could modestly affect trading and shipping activity in key energy regions.

Fri., May 15 — Rig counts and trader positioning

The week concludes with the closely watched Baker Hughes rig count, which serves as a leading indicator for future U.S. oil and natural gas production activity. Investors will be monitoring whether elevated oil prices are encouraging additional drilling activity from shale producers.

Positioning data from both ICE and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission will provide insight into hedge fund and speculative activity across Brent crude, gasoil, and broader energy futures markets. The reports may reveal how aggressively traders are positioning around continued geopolitical risks, refinery disruptions, and volatility tied to the Strait of Hormuz situation.

Mon., May 11

• EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels, with Ukraine and Middle East on the agenda. |Holidays: Holidays: Russia; Azerbaijan; Kazakhstan.

Tue., May 12

• API US inventory report | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report | IATA Aviation Energy Forum, Paris; runs through Friday | TPH & Co.’s Hotter ‘N Hell Energy Conference, Houston; runs through Thursday | ICE gasoil May futures expire |Holidays: China; South Korea; Japan

Wed., May 13

• EIA Petroleum Status Report | Weekly Ethanol Production | Genscape ARA inventories | IEA Monthly Oil Market Report | OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

Thur., May 14

• EIA Natural Gas Report | Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data | WTI June options expire | Holidays: Indonesia; Norway

Fri., May 15

• Baker-Hughes Rig Count | ICE weekly Commitments of Tradersreport for Brent, gasoil | CFTC Commitments of Traders | Holidays: Indonesia