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SUNDAY, AUGUST 2, 2026 | SPECIAL REPORT & ANALYSIS
SPECIAL REPORT | U.S./CHINA SUMMIT
Daines Returns to Beijing to Shape Trump/Xi Summit Deliverables
Montana senator’s backchannel role could help convert broad understandings into trade, technology and geopolitical agreements
Analysis · August 2, 2026
The South China Morning Post reports that Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) is expected to return to Beijing for another round of talks aimed at finalizing the agenda for Chinese President Xi Jinping’s planned Sept. 24 state visit to Washington. Citing people familiar with the preparations, the newspaper says Daines is carrying messages between President Donald Trump’s administration and Chinese officials, narrowing differences and helping turn understandings reached at the leaders’ May meeting in Beijing into concrete summit deliverables.
Daines emerges as an unusually important intermediary
Daines has longstanding connections with China from his previous private-sector work and has become one of the few senior U.S. political figures trusted enough by both sides to operate as a backchannel. His reported return suggests Washington and Beijing believe traditional diplomatic and economic channels alone may not be sufficient to resolve the most politically sensitive issues before the summit.
The senator’s involvement also gives Trump a direct political channel separate from the State Department, Treasury Department and Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. That could help the White House determine which Chinese commitments are substantial enough to announce and which disagreements should be deferred rather than allowed to disrupt the meeting.
Officials are trying to convert the May understandings into measurable results
Items reportedly under discussion include:
• A formal bilateral dialogue on artificial intelligence safety.
• Creation of U.S./China trade and investment boards.
• A roughly $30 billion tariff-free trade package involving critical minerals, semiconductors and other technology-related products.
• Further discussions about U.S. and Chinese citizens detained in the other country.
• Strategic talks covering the U.S./Iran war, Russia’s war in Ukraine and Taiwan.
The broad agenda shows the summit is being designed as more than a ceremonial state visit
Both governments appear to want several announceable agreements, even if the larger strategic rivalry remains unresolved.
The trade boards may have the greatest near-term commercial significance. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has publicly indicated that Washington wants a bilateral trade board operating by the time Xi arrives. Such a body could provide a mechanism for implementing purchase commitments, resolving individual market-access disputes and reviewing investment proposals without requiring a comprehensive trade agreement.
For U.S. agriculture, the key question is whether the board would oversee or verify Chinese purchase commitments, including the previously discussed pledge for substantial U.S. soybean purchases. A functioning board could give exporters a clearer process for tracking commitments and addressing problems involving licenses, customs clearances, sanitary restrictions and state-owned purchasing decisions.
However, the summit’s reported $30 billion tariff-free package appears concentrated on critical minerals and technology. Unless agriculture is added to the final package or incorporated into the trade board’s mandate, farm products may remain dependent on separate purchasing commitments rather than receiving broader and more durable tariff relief. (See the sidebar below for more on this topic.)
AI cooperation would be diplomatically significant but difficult to define. A formal dialogue could cover safety testing, military uses of artificial intelligence, export controls and measures to prevent unintended escalation. Yet the two countries remain in direct competition over advanced chips, data centers, robotics and AI models.
That means an AI agreement is more likely to establish communication channels and broad safety principles than to reverse U.S. technology restrictions. Beijing’s recent objections to new U.S. economic controls underscore the difficulty of separating AI safety cooperation from the larger competition over semiconductor access.
Iran has become a more urgent summit issue
According to the report, Washington and Beijing believe understandings reached in May concerning Iran must be revisited because conditions have changed significantly. China’s dependence on imported energy and its commercial relationships with Iran give Beijing an interest in preventing additional disruptions to shipping and oil supplies.
Trump could press Xi to use China’s economic influence with Tehran, while Beijing may seek assurances that U.S. military actions will not further destabilize energy markets. Any cooperation would probably be limited, but even informal coordination could affect crude oil flows, tanker traffic and global commodity prices.
Summit remains vulnerable to renewed trade tensions
Chinese officials voiced “serious concern” about recent U.S. economic restrictions during a call involving Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. One source cautioned that Beijing is unhappy with several recent U.S. actions and that the two sides must contain the dispute to prevent disruptions to the summit.
That warning is important. Daines’ trip should be viewed as evidence that serious negotiations are underway, not confirmation that the major agreements are complete. The summit’s success will depend on whether the two sides can temporarily compartmentalize disputes over tariffs, chips, investment restrictions and Taiwan.
Most likely outcome is a collection of targeted agreements rather than a broad reset
A state banquet, an extended small-group meeting and several limited trade or technology announcements would allow both leaders to claim progress. But neither government appears prepared to abandon its core economic or security positions.
Upshot: Daines’ immediate task will be to identify which commitments can be made specific, enforceable and politically defensible before Sept. 24. For agriculture and other export sectors, the most important measure will not be the ceremony surrounding Xi’s visit but whether the summit produces purchasing schedules, implementation mechanisms and reliable follow-through.
| SIDEBAR | RELATED ANALYSISChina’s promised farm-tariff relief remains unfinished businessRemoving Beijing’s extra 10% levy could improve U.S. competitivenessAs noted previously, the South China Morning Post reports that Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) is expected to return to Beijing as U.S. and Chinese officials refine a roughly $30 billion tariff-reduction package ahead of President Xi Jinping’s planned September visit to Washington. A major unresolved question for U.S. agriculture is whether the negotiations will finally deliver the tariff relief promised after President Donald Trump’s May summit with Xi.The two countries did agree to reduce agricultural tariffs. China’s Commerce Ministry said after the May summit that Washington and Beijing had agreed to cut tariffs affecting agricultural trade. But the announcement did not identify the products, tariff rates or implementation dates, leaving the most important commercial details unresolved.China consequently continues to impose an additional 10% tariff on many U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans. That levy is especially damaging because it makes U.S. commodities more expensive relative to competing supplies from Brazil and other exporters before differences in freight, currency values and seasonal availability are considered.Eliminating the additional 10% tariff would materially improve U.S. competitiveness. It would not guarantee that U.S. soybeans, corn, wheat, meat or other products would always be the lowest-cost choice. But it would remove a significant government-imposed disadvantage and make it easier for private Chinese buyers — not just state-owned companies operating under political purchase directives — to source U.S. supplies.That distinction matters. Purchase pledges can generate large headline sales, but permanent tariff relief would provide a broader commercial foundation for agricultural trade. Private importers could respond to market conditions instead of waiting for government-arranged transactions or tariff exemptions.The proposed Board of Trade appears to be the implementation mechanism. China has been seeking industry feedback on reciprocal tariff reductions covering approximately $30 billion in bilateral trade. Agricultural products are expected to be considered as the two governments determine which goods will qualify for lower or zero tariffs.However, the package described by the South China Morning Post also includes critical minerals, semiconductors and other technology-related products. That creates competition for limited tariff concessions and makes it important that agricultural products receive a clearly defined place in the final agreement rather than being left for later negotiations.Recent U.S. tariff actions have complicated the bargain. Washington imposed a new 12.5% tariff on many Chinese products in late July, prompting Beijing to raise “serious concern” and warn that the action could undermine the broader trade truce.Bottom line: The expected bargain remains reciprocal tariff relief — Washington lowers duties on selected Chinese products while Beijing removes the additional 10% tariff burden on selected U.S. exports, particularly farm goods. But as of Aug. 1, the agricultural cuts have been promised, not fully specified or implemented. Daines’ Beijing mission may determine whether the September summit produces durable market access for U.S. agriculture or another set of purchase commitments dependent on political follow through. |
Sources: South China Morning Post; China Ministry of Commerce statements; Ag Policy & Markets Daily analysis.
AG POLICY & MARKETS DAILY | SPECIAL REPORT — U.S./CHINA SUMMIT — SUNDAY, AUGUST 2, 2026
