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WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 05, 2026 | SPECIAL REPORT & ANALYSIS
EIA WEEKLY REPORT | ETHANOL EXPORTS
Ethanol Exports Bounce Back, Keep 2026 on Track for a Third Straight Record
Weekly shipments jumped to 200,000 barrels a day in EIA’s latest report, and January–May exports ran 12.5% ahead of last year’s record pace — with Canada taking roughly one of every three barrels.
Analysis · August 5, 2026
U.S. ethanol exports snapped back last week. The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Report, released Wednesday, put fuel ethanol exports at 200,000 barrels per day (b/d) for the week ended July 31 — up 46% from 137,000 b/d the prior week, 72% above the same week last year, and matching one of the strongest weekly readings of 2026.
The rest of the weekly ethanol ledger was steady. Production eased to 1.107 million b/d from 1.133 million — still 2.4% above a year earlier — and stocks slipped to 24.5 million barrels. Ethanol blending into gasoline, at 936,000 b/d, ran slightly ahead of last year near its seasonal summer peak.
Table 1. Weekly ethanol scoreboard (week ended July 31, 2026)
| Jul 31 | Jul 24 | Year ago | |
| Exports (thousand b/d) | 200 | 137 | 116 |
| Production (thousand b/d) | 1,107 | 1,133 | 1,081 |
| Stocks (million bbl) | 24.5 | 24.7 | 23.8 |
| Blending (thousand b/d) | 936 | 939 | 922 |
Year-ago is the week ended Aug. 1, 2025. Blending = refiner and blender net input of fuel ethanol.
2026 is outrunning a record year
The weekly numbers are noisy, but the trend underneath them is not. EIA’s monthly trade data — the definitive count, currently complete through May — show U.S. fuel ethanol exports of 23.9 million barrels for January–May 2026, up 12.5% from the same months of 2025. And 2025 was itself a record: 52.1 million barrels for the year (about 2.2 billion gallons), which broke 2024’s record of 46.2 million barrels (about 1.9 billion gallons).
The Renewable Fuels Association, working from the same trade data in gallon terms, counts just over 1 billion gallons shipped through May and has said 2026 is tracking toward roughly 2.5 billion gallons — which would be a third consecutive annual record, with something like one of every eight gallons of U.S. production leaving the country.
Where the barrels are going
Canada remains the anchor customer, and it is not close. Canadian buyers took 8.3 million barrels in the first five months of 2026 — about 35% of all U.S. ethanol exports — including 1.8 million barrels in May alone, the country’s biggest month of the year. The Netherlands, the gateway to the European market through the Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp hub, is second at 4.2 million barrels, roughly 18% of the total.
The more interesting story is churn further down the list. Brazil and India, which together took nearly 2.8 million barrels in the first quarter, all but vanished from the customer list in April and May — a reminder of how quickly tariff and import-policy shifts in those two markets can switch trade flows on and off. Picking up some of the slack: Nigeria, which bought 460,000 barrels in April–May after months of little activity, along with steady volumes to Colombia, South Korea, the Philippines and the United Kingdom.
Table 2. U.S. fuel ethanol exports by destination (thousand barrels)
| May 2026 | Jan–May 2026 | YTD share | |
| Canada | 1,818 | 8,282 | 34.7% |
| Netherlands | 758 | 4,193 | 17.6% |
| Brazil | 0 | 1,719 | 7.2% |
| Colombia | 259 | 1,255 | 5.3% |
| South Korea | 241 | 1,213 | 5.1% |
| Philippines | 174 | 1,212 | 5.1% |
| India | 1 | 1,087 | 4.6% |
| United Kingdom | 236 | 943 | 3.9% |
| Spain | 69 | 680 | 2.8% |
| Mexico | 89 | 679 | 2.8% |
| Peru | 97 | 659 | 2.8% |
| Nigeria | 303 | 460 | 1.9% |
| All destinations | 4,531 | 23,888 | 100% |
EIA monthly data. Year-to-date share computed from January–May 2026 total of 23.9 million barrels. Destinations below Nigeria omitted.
Bottom line
Exports have become the growth engine of ethanol demand — and by extension a meaningful outlet for corn. With domestic blending largely capped by the E10 wall, the difference between a flat year and a record year for ethanol plants is being decided in Ottawa, Rotterdam, Lagos and New Delhi. So far in 2026, the world is buying: last week’s 200,000-b/d export clip and a 12.5% year-to-date lead over a record 2025 keep a third consecutive annual export record — and the corn grind that comes with it — well within reach. The variables worth watching are the policy switches in Brazil and India, which have already shown this year they can turn multi-million-barrel trade flows on and off in a single month.
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report (Aug. 5, 2026) and monthly fuel ethanol trade data through May 2026; Renewable Fuels Association trade analysis.
AG POLICY & MARKETS DAILY | EIA WEEKLY REPORT | ETHANOL EXPORTS — WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 05, 2026
