Global Relief Rally Underway This Morning

Investors cheering a potential breakthrough reached between the U.S. and Iran

Link: DOE Releases Updated GREET Model, Advancing 45Z Tax Credit
         Implementation

Link: Import Surge Fuels Questions About New Grinding Capacity
         and the Future of U.S. Beef
Link: JBS Shuts Pennsylvania Beef Plant as Historic Cattle Shortage
         Reshapes Industry
Link: Cotton’s Bull Case Builds Beneath a Falling Market
Link: Wasserman Sees Democrats Favored for House,
         Senate Still a Republican Hold in 2026

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, June 14
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, June 14

TOP STORIES

— Oil inventories near critical levels despite Iran Strait deal: Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, depleted global stockpiles could keep crude oil and fuel prices elevated for months

— U.S./Iran peace deal declared in place, but implementation hurdles remain: Agreement would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift naval blockade and launch 60-day nuclear talks — formal signing set for Friday in Switzerland

— Greer heads to India next week as U.S./India trade talks enter critical phase: High-level visit signals momentum, but major issues remain ahead of any final agreement

— New World screwworm cases rise to 12 as detections spread to new Texas counties: New livestock infections in cattle, goats and sheep broaden the pest’s geographic footprint

— FDA clears emergency screwworm treatment for pets as U.S. battles expanding threat: Over-the-counter drug offers pet owners a new line of defense while federal officials confront sterile fly shortages

— Screwworm defense line collapses as parasite returns to Texas: Panama containment system overwhelmed after 2023 surge, raising questions about North American biosecurity

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today: U.S./Iran peace deal triggers global market rally; S&P 500 futures, crypto and sovereign bonds rise as Brent crude falls 4% to around $83 per barrel

— Equities Friday and weekly change: Dow closes at 51,202.26, up 0.70% on the day and 0.66% for the week; Nasdaq up 0.31%/0.70%; S&P 500 up 0.50%/0.65%

— Dollar weakens, markets pivot as U.S./Iran deal reshapes global outlook: Peace framework rattles safe-haven demand, sets stage for pivotal week of central bank decisions

ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS THIS WEEK

— Federal Reserve takes center stage as markets digest Iran deal, search for clarity on rates and inflation: FOMC meeting, updated economic projections and Chair Kevin Warsh’s first press conference highlight a consequential week

AG MARKETS

— S&P Global Energy crop acreage estimates: Corn pegged at 96 million acres, 662,000 above intentions; soybeans at 85.3 million acres, up 600,000 from intentions

— Overnight grain markets under pressure as favorable weather weighs on prices: Corn, soybeans and wheat extend losses overnight; soybean oil leads decline while meal holds firm

— International grain markets weaken as Northern Hemisphere harvest pressure builds: New-crop wheat supplies pressure global markets; palm oil retreats

— Agriculture markets Friday and weekly change: Corn July $4.12¾, down 4¾¢ for the week; soybeans July $11.13½, down 8¢; live cattle August $241.175, down 47½¢

AG REPORTS THIS WEEK

— USDA reports to watch this week: Monday’s Crop Progress report will be the primary market mover; Thursday’s Cattle on Feed report is the marquee livestock release

DAIRY POLICY

— Wisconsin dairy farmers challenge checkoff program over sustainability spending: Lawsuit argues mandatory dairy assessments are funding environmental initiatives beyond the program’s original purpose

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— CFTC scrutinizes CME’s push for 24/7 energy futures trading: Regulators signal concerns that round-the-clock crude oil trading could amplify volatility and strain market oversight

— Monday: oil prices tumble as U.S./Iran peace deal signals return of Persian Gulf supply: Agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore Iranian exports eases fears of a prolonged global energy shock

— SunZia Wind project marks milestone for U.S. renewable energy despite political headwinds: Nation’s largest wind farm begins operations after two decades of development

— California startup claims first farm-to-flight SAF conversion: Circularity Fuels says end-to-end biogas process could help airlines meet mandates at near-conventional fuel costs

ENERGY REPORTS THIS WEEK

— Key energy reports and events to watch this week: EIA Petroleum Status Report Wednesday and IEA Monthly Oil Market Report are the primary market movers; OPEC World Oil Outlook due Thursday

WASHINGTON IN FOCUS

— Iran deal dominates as G7 convenes and primaries loom: Trump declares U.S./Iran agreement complete on his 80th birthday; G7 leaders gather in Geneva; Trump-Modi meeting set for June 17

— Congress: House out, Senate in: Senate advances nominations and FY 2027 appropriations markups while House remains on district work period through June 22

— Waiting on Senate farm bill language: Boozman expects text “in the next week or so”; SNAP cost-sharing and Prop 12 pre-emption remain key sticking points

— Primary elections: Georgia, Oklahoma and DC: Georgia gubernatorial and Senate runoffs, Oklahoma’s open Senate and governor’s races, and DC’s first ranked-choice mayoral primary highlight Tuesday’s ballot

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Increasing threat of significant heavy rainfall from South Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley; cooler air surging into the eastern two-thirds of the country

— Corn Belt faces persistent wetness while cooler temperatures dominate forecast: Repeated rainfall threatens late soybean planting in Missouri and slows wheat harvest; below-normal temperatures eliminate near-term heat stress concerns
 

TOP STORIES—Oil inventories near critical levels despite Iran Strait dealEven if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, depleted global stockpiles could keep crude oil and fuel prices elevated for months while governments and refiners rebuild inventories  The tentative U.S./Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (see next item for details) may avert an immediate global energy crisis, but oil industry executives are warning that the world remains dangerously short of crude supplies after more than three months of severe disruptions. The key issue is no longer just whether oil can move through the strait — it is whether depleted inventories can be rebuilt fast enough to prevent another price spike. For more than 15 weeks, roughly 10 million barrels per day of oil production were effectively removed from normal global trade flows, forcing consuming nations to draw heavily from commercial storage facilities and strategic reserves. While the agreement announced Sunday could restore access to the waterway that normally handles about 20% of global petroleum shipments, analysts caution that rebuilding inventories will likely take months rather than weeks. The United States has been among the largest users of emergency supplies. Since late March, approximately 66 million barrels have been withdrawn from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), and the Trump administration has authorized total releases of 172 million barrels. If current withdrawal rates continue, that authorization could be exhausted by early September. More importantly, the drawdown would reduce SPR holdings to roughly 243 million barrels, among the lowest levels since the reserve was created following the 1970s oil embargo. Such levels would significantly reduce Washington’s ability to respond to future geopolitical disruptions, hurricanes, refinery outages, or other supply emergencies. Commercial inventories are also tightening. Storage levels at Cushing, Oklahoma — the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate crude futures — have fallen to roughly 21 million barrels. Industry analysts note that operational challenges begin emerging when inventories approach 20 million barrels because tanks require a minimum volume of crude to maintain efficient flow and avoid contamination from sediment buildup. The concern among oil executives is that once these minimum operating levels are reached, physical oil markets could tighten dramatically. Exxon Mobil executives have warned that crude prices could surge toward $150 to $160 per barrel if inventory shortages become acute. Chevron and other major producers have similarly cautioned that the world is approaching unusually low stock levels that could trigger sharp price volatility. While crude futures fell following news of the U.S./Iran agreement, market participants remain skeptical that supply chains will normalize quickly. Shipping companies and insurers are expected to proceed cautiously until mines are cleared and maritime security is fully restored. Even after tanker traffic resumes, refiners and governments worldwide will likely prioritize rebuilding inventories, creating additional demand that could support higher oil prices. The inventory situation underscores a broader structural concern that has been building for years. Global spare production capacity remains concentrated in a handful of countries, while commercial stockpiles across major consuming nations have steadily declined. The current crisis exposed how quickly those inventories can be depleted when a major transportation chokepoint is disrupted. From a commodity market perspective, the implications extend well beyond crude oil. Elevated energy prices historically increase production, transportation, fertilizer, and processing costs across the agricultural sector. Higher diesel, natural gas, and freight costs often feed directly into grain, livestock, cotton, and food price inflation. The political stakes are equally significant. While the White House argues that the Iran agreement will eventually return fuel prices to lower levels, inventory rebuilding may prove to be a lengthy process. If gasoline and diesel prices remain elevated heading into the 2026 midterm elections, energy costs could become a major economic and political issue despite the reopening of the strait. The larger takeaway is that reopening the Strait of Hormuz solves the immediate supply interruption but not the inventory deficit. The world’s oil system has spent months consuming stored barrels faster than it can replace them. Reversing that imbalance will require sustained flows through the strait, stable geopolitical conditions, and time—factors that suggest energy and broader commodity markets may remain unusually volatile well into the second half of 2026. —U.S./Iran peace deal declared in place, but implementation hurdles remainAgreement would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift naval blockade and launch 60-day nuclear talks — formal signing set for Friday in Switzerland The United States and Iran declared an end to hostilities Sunday, with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announcing the deal was “now in place” and President Trump confirming he was lifting the U.S. naval blockade. A formal signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday in Switzerland, with technical talks on Iran’s nuclear program to follow over a 60-day window. Trump announced on Truth Social that he was authorizing “the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz” and the “immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade,” calling the deal complete. Sharif posted simultaneously that both sides had declared “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.” Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed on state media that a deal was reached after 14 hours of talks with Qatari mediators, and will be signed Friday in Switzerland. Gharibabadi indicated that the final text would be released after a formal signing ceremony in Switzerland. One caveat: Fars News Agency — close to the hard-line IRGC — said marine traffic through the Gulf “will be regulated by Iran in coordination with Oman,” which would contradict Trump’s declaration of toll-free opening of the strait. The full official text has not yet been released by either side. The memorandum of understanding, mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, marks the biggest diplomatic breakthrough of the 107-day conflict. It extends the existing ceasefire by 60 days and is designed to restore commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which handled roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas before the war began. The two sides will use the 60-day window to negotiate how to downblend Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpiles and establish a framework for freezing and monitoring its nuclear program going forward. Sanctions relief and access to frozen Iranian funds are expected to be tied to Iran’s compliance. The deal’s announcement triggered a sharp decline in crude oil prices as traders anticipated the eventual restoration of energy flows through the strait. However, the reopening may not be immediate — mine-clearing operations, infrastructure repairs and security arrangements could delay a full return to pre-war shipping volumes. Significant uncertainties remain. The agreement’s final stretch was volatile: Israel struck Hezbollah targets in Beirut hours before the expected signing, prompting Iranian threats to walk away. The ceasefire is intended to cover fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon as well, though that front flared again Sunday. Iranian officials have not yet issued a formal confirmation that the deal is in effect. The harder work begins with the 60-day nuclear talks. Reaching agreement on enrichment levels, uranium stockpile disposal and long-term verification mechanisms will be considerably more complex than the memorandum of understanding that preceded them. U.S. officials argue Iran is incentivized to comply because sanctions relief depends on nuclear progress, but hawks in Washington and Jerusalem remain skeptical a final agreement will ever be reached — raising the possibility the war could end with the nuclear question unresolved. Responses: In a joint statement, Britain, France, Germany and Italy welcomed the agreement and said they would consider lifting certain sanctions on Iran if Tehran takes clear and verifiable steps to curb its nuclear program. However, the deal faced skepticism in Washington. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) cautioned that Iran’s interpretation of the agreement appeared to differ from that of U.S. negotiators, raising questions about how the accord would be implemented in practice. Bottom line: The U.S./Iran peace deal has been declared in place, representing the most significant diplomatic breakthrough since the conflict began. But the announcement is not yet a settlement. Formal signing is days away, Iran has not officially confirmed the deal, mine-clearing in the Strait of Hormuz will take time, and the 60-day nuclear talks face long odds. Markets will respond to the headline — the hard part comes next. —Greer heads to India next week as U.S./India trade talks enter critical phaseHigh-level visit signals momentum, but major issues remain ahead of any final agreementU.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is scheduled to travel to India next week for another round of trade negotiations, a move that underscores growing momentum in efforts by Washington and New Delhi to reach a broader bilateral trade agreement. According to a senior administration official, Greer’s visit will build on progress made in recent weeks through lower-level technical discussions between the two countries.While expectations for a breakthrough at this week’s G7 Summit remain low, the upcoming visit is widely viewed as an important sign that negotiations are advancing beyond preliminary discussions and into more substantive phases. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are expected to discuss trade issues during meetings surrounding the summit, but officials indicate a final agreement is unlikely to emerge from those talks alone. The United States has been seeking expanded market access for a range of agricultural products, industrial goods, and services while also pressing India on tariff barriers and regulatory restrictions that American businesses have long argued limit trade. India, meanwhile, is seeking greater access to the U.S. market for labor-intensive exports, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and manufactured products, while also seeking relief from certain U.S. tariff measures. For agriculture, the negotiations carry significant implications. U.S. farm groups continue to view India as one of the world’s most protected major agricultural markets, with high tariff rates on products ranging from corn and ethanol to dairy, poultry, tree nuts, and specialty crops. Any agreement that lowers those barriers could create meaningful export opportunities for American producers. At the same time, India remains politically sensitive about opening its agricultural sector because of the importance of farming to rural employment and domestic food security. Greer’s trip comes amid a broader Trump administration push to secure bilateral trade arrangements with key partners following the implementation of reciprocal tariff policies earlier this year. Administration officials have repeatedly cited India as one of the most important strategic and economic relationships for the United States, both as a major trading partner and as a counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific region. Although negotiators appear to be making progress, several difficult issues remain unresolved, including tariff reductions, digital trade provisions, agricultural market access, intellectual property protections, and rules governing investment and manufacturing supply chains. Those topics are expected to dominate discussions during Greer’s visit. The fact that negotiations continue at both the technical and ministerial levels suggests both governments remain committed to finding common ground. While a final agreement may still require months of additional bargaining, Greer’s visit could prove to be a pivotal step in determining whether the two countries can convert recent momentum into a comprehensive trade deal that reshapes one of the world’s most important economic relationships. —New World screwworm cases rise to 12 as detections spread to new Texas countiesNew livestock infections in cattle, goats and sheep broaden the pest’s geographic footprint, though officials report no wildlife cases or fly-trap detections The spread of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Texas continues to widen, with USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) now reporting 12 confirmed cases since the pest was first detected in the state earlier this month. The latest updates show the parasite has moved into additional counties and has now been confirmed in sheep, adding another livestock species to the growing list of affected animals. According to APHIS, four new cases were confirmed on June 11. Those included a cattle infection in Tom Green County, marking the first detection in that county, along with additional cattle cases in Zavala and Edwards counties and a goat case in Edwards County. On June 12, APHIS confirmed another case in sheep in Sutton County, making it the second newly affected county reported in the latest update. The expanding county map is significant because it suggests the parasite is continuing to spread through livestock populations despite aggressive surveillance and response efforts. However, there are also several developments that animal health officials view as encouraging. All confirmed infections to date have been in domestic livestock, including cattle, goats and sheep. APHIS has not reported any infections in wildlife or feral animals, which would complicate eradication efforts and make long-term containment far more difficult. Equally important, federal surveillance programs have not detected adult screwworm flies in traps since the first U.S. case was confirmed on June 3. The absence of fly-trap detections may indicate that the infestations remain relatively localized and are being identified through inspections of infected animals rather than widespread fly activity across the region. The appearance of NWS in sheep is noteworthy because it demonstrates the parasite’s ability to infest multiple livestock species. New World Screwworm larvae feed on living tissue, unlike many other fly species that target dead or decaying material. Infested animals can suffer severe tissue damage, weight loss, secondary infections and, if untreated, death. Livestock producers throughout the southern United States are closely monitoring developments. Industry concerns center on whether the pest can be contained before it becomes established in wildlife populations or spreads farther north through animal movements. USDA officials continue to emphasize rapid detection, treatment and movement controls as the primary tools for limiting spread. The agency’s response strategy is also being supported by expanded sterile-fly release programs in Mexico and enhanced surveillance along the southern border. While the total number of cases remains relatively small, the addition of new counties and livestock species underscores that the outbreak is still evolving. For now, the lack of wildlife infections and fly-trap detections remains the most encouraging sign for eradication efforts, but animal health officials acknowledge that the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the outbreak can be contained before the peak summer insect season accelerates transmission risks. Link to Texas map details.  —FDA clears emergency screwworm treatment for pets as U.S. battles expanding threatOver-the-counter drug offers pet owners a new line of defense while federal officials confront sterile fly shortages and growing concerns over parasite control The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted emergency approval for the over-the-counter use of nitenpyram tablets to help treat New World screwworm infestations in pets, providing veterinarians and pet owners with an additional tool as federal and state officials work to contain the destructive parasite. Under the emergency authorization, nitenpyram can be administered to dogs and cats that are at least four weeks old and weigh a minimum of two pounds. The drug, commonly used to kill fleas, has demonstrated effectiveness against screwworm larvae and can be used as part of a broader treatment protocol when infestations are detected. The decision comes at a critical time as U.S. animal health officials intensify efforts to prevent the pest from gaining a stronger foothold. New World screwworm is one of the livestock industry’s most feared parasites because the larvae feed on living tissue rather than dead tissue, causing severe wounds, infections, weight loss and, in extreme cases, death if left untreated. While recent U.S. detections have been concentrated in livestock, companion animals are also susceptible. Open wounds, surgical sites and even minor skin injuries can attract adult screwworm flies, making rapid treatment essential to preventing infestations from worsening. The FDA’s emergency action reflects growing concern about available response tools. Federal efforts to eradicate screwworms traditionally rely on the Sterile Insect Technique, in which millions of sterile male flies are released to mate with wild females, gradually collapsing the pest population. That strategy was instrumental in eliminating New World screwworm from the United States decades ago. However, the current response faces significant challenges. USDA officials continue to deal with limited sterile fly production capacity, logistical constraints in expanding release programs and staffing shortages that have affected portions of the federal animal health infrastructure. Industry groups and lawmakers have increasingly pressed USDA to accelerate investments in sterile fly production facilities and surveillance programs as new cases emerge. The availability of an over-the-counter treatment does not replace the need for aggressive eradication efforts, but it provides a practical tool that could help reduce animal suffering and limit the spread of infestations when cases occur. Veterinarians emphasize that early detection remains critical, as nitenpyram works best when incorporated into a comprehensive treatment plan that includes wound care and removal of larvae. For livestock producers, the approval also highlights the broader economic stakes. A larger screwworm outbreak could disrupt cattle, sheep, goat and equine industries through animal losses, higher veterinary costs, movement restrictions and potential trade implications. The pest historically cost producers hundreds of millions of dollars annually before its eradication from the United States in the 1960s. The emergency authorization underscores how seriously federal regulators view the current threat. While USDA’s primary focus remains preventing establishment of the pest through surveillance, quarantine measures and sterile fly releases, FDA’s action provides another layer of defense as the United States seeks to stay ahead of a parasite that many in agriculture hoped had been relegated to history.—Screwworm defense line collapses as parasite returns to TexasPanama containment system overwhelmed after 2023 surge, raising questions about North American biosecurityThe return of the New World screwworm to Texas cattle after decades of successful containment represents the failure of one of the most celebrated animal disease control programs in agricultural history. According to a report by Financial Times commodities correspondent Susannah Savage, the biological barrier that protected North America for nearly 40 years began unraveling in 2023 when screwworm cases in Panama surged dramatically, overwhelming the long-standing eradication strategy.  For decades, the United States and its partners relied on the Sterile Insect Technique, which involved releasing millions of sterilized male flies into a containment zone in Panama’s Darién Gap. Because female screwworm flies mate only once, mating with a sterile male prevents reproduction and gradually suppresses the wild population. The strategy pushed the parasite southward and effectively created a biological firewall protecting Central and North America. The system began breaking down in 2023 when Panama reported an explosion in cases. Annual infections jumped from roughly 25 cases in a typical year to more than 6,500, overwhelming surveillance and sterile-fly releases. Experts cited changing livestock production patterns, increased movement of animals and people through the Darién Gap migration corridor, and strains on the containment program itself as contributing factors. Once the barrier was breached, the parasite moved rapidly north through Central America. By late 2025 it had spread into Mexico, and by June 2026 the United States confirmed its first domestic cases in more than half a century. The USDA first detected the parasite in a Texas calf on June 3, and additional cases have since been identified in cattle, goats and other animals in Texas and neighboring states. The resurgence comes at a particularly difficult time for the U.S. cattle industry. Beef cow numbers are already near multi-decade lows, and cattle supplies remain historically tight. While screwworm does not affect food safety, infestations can kill livestock if untreated and require costly surveillance, treatment and movement restrictions. Ranchers face increased labor costs as animals must be inspected frequently for wounds that could attract the flesh-eating larvae. The outbreak has also sparked debate over preparedness. Critics have questioned whether federal staffing reductions weakened surveillance and response capabilities, while USDA officials argue that resources and funding remain available and note that more than $1 billion has been committed to combating the pest, including expanded sterile-fly production and dispersal facilities. The broader concern is that the Texas detections may represent only the beginning of a prolonged battle. The original eradication campaign took decades and cost billions of dollars. Re-establishing a secure containment zone will require sustained sterile-fly production, aggressive surveillance and close cooperation between the United States, Mexico and Central American governments. Until that happens, the livestock industry faces the prospect of living with a pest many believed had been permanently defeated.

—Equities today: The U.S. and Iran brokered an agreement to end their nearly four-month war. The deal, which could lead to talks about Iran’s nuclear program and a permanent end to hostilities, is to be signed in Geneva on Friday. “Hormuz is likely to reopen slowly, and ships (and their insurers) may not be rushing to sail through,” Paul Donovan, the chief economist for UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote to investors this morning. S&P 500 futures, crypto and sovereign bonds rallied. The yield on a 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.45%. European markets soared following news of the deal; the Stoxx 600 index of European firms hit an all-time high. Airline stocks took off after the price of Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell by 4%, to around $83 per barrel, a three-month low. The average price of gasoline in the U.S. fell to $4.06 today, according to AAA. Earlier, Asian stocks accelerated: Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped by 5.4% and Topix by 3.6%.

In Asia, Japan +5%. Hong Kong +0.5%. China +1.6%. India +1%.

In Europe, at midday, London +0.1%. Paris +1.1%. Frankfurt +1.3%.

—Equities Friday and weekly change: 

—Dollar weakens, markets pivot as U.S./Iran deal reshapes global outlook

Peace framework rattles safe-haven demand, sets stage for pivotal week of central bank decisions

The U.S. dollar weakened to a 10-day low against its major peers Monday as a preliminary agreement to end the war between the U.S. and Iran sent oil prices tumbling and boosted demand for riskier assets. The dollar index slipped to around 99.5, its lowest level in more than a week, as traders unwound defensive positions built up during months of conflict-driven uncertainty. 

Trump announced that the deal allows for toll-free shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely closed since the U.S. and Israel launched an assault on Iran on Feb. 28. “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. Oil prices slipped on the news, with Brent crude futures down almost 5% to around $83.

The announcement eased fears of sustained energy-driven inflation and reduced pressure on central banks to tighten policy further. The agreement is expected to be formally signed in Switzerland on June 19 and reportedly includes lifting the U.S. naval blockade, easing sanctions on Iran, and a framework for dismantling Tehran’s nuclear program.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer called the agreement “a hugely important step forward in ending the war, ensuring regional stability and re-opening the Strait of Hormuz,” while noting the UK stands ready to support technical talks that will now begin, including potential mine clearance operations in the strait.

The dollar’s retreat reflects a broader recalibration in currency markets as the geopolitical risk premium that had propped up safe-haven demand begins to unwind. With the Hormuz corridor reopening and oil supply pressures easing, traders are now shifting focus to monetary policy signals from multiple major central banks converging this week.

June 16–17 will mark Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Fed chair, having been sworn in as the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve on May 22. In the near term, strategists expect the Fed to keep interest rates steady through year-end, with inflation still running above target and energy prices adding uncertainty. Bank of America economist Ethan Harris said the collective view of FOMC members has become “more hawkish” in the weeks running up to the June 16–17 meeting. Markets will be scrutinizing Warsh’s post-meeting press conference for early signals about his leadership style and the committee’s tolerance for persistent inflation.
 

The Bank of England meets on June 18 and is expected to keep its key rate steady at 3.75%, where it has been throughout 2026, while markets are fully pricing a rate hike by September.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is similarly expected to hold, having raised rates three times this year to counter fuel-driven price pressures.

The Bank of Japan, by contrast, is widely viewed as likely to raise interest rates, with markets worried the BOJ may be falling behind the curve. A 25-basis-point hike is widely expected at the conclusion of the BOJ’s two-day meeting on June 16. A rate increase would further support the yen, which has been under sustained pressure amid the wide yield differential between Japan and other major economies.

—Federal Reserve takes center stage as markets digest Iran deal, search for clarity on rates and inflation

FOMC meeting, updated economic projections and Chair Kevin Warsh’s first press conference highlight a week reshaped by a surprise geopolitical breakthrough

The Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting will dominate the economic calendar this week even as a dramatic late-breaking development reshapes the backdrop: the United States and Iran reached an agreement Sunday to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with President Trump confirming the deal is complete and authorizing an end to the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. 

Oil prices fell sharply on the news, with U.S. crude futures dropping nearly 5% to around $80.83 per barrel and Brent futures sliding roughly 4% — a significant reversal after months of energy-market turbulence that had complicated the Fed’s inflation calculus.

The deal arrives just days before the Federal Open Market Committee convenes June 16–17. The federal funds rate has been sitting at 3.50% to 3.75% through several consecutive meetings since December 2025, and the FOMC is widely expected to hold steady again. The real focus will be Wednesday’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, the “dot plot” of rate expectations, and Chair Warsh’s first post-meeting press conference — his initial opportunity to signal monetary policy direction to markets.

Markets head into the meeting with almost no clarity on what Warsh thinks about recent job growth, the acceleration in inflation, or the path of rates. That may be by design: Warsh has strongly criticized Fed communications, saying they have placed the central bank more at the center of market decisions than it should be, and his plans include a rethink of how the Fed forecasts and talks about policy.

Several key questions will drive the discussion, with the Iran deal now reshaping at least one of them. On inflation: policymakers must determine whether recent readings provide sufficient evidence that price pressures are moving sustainably toward the 2% target. The April CPI rose 3.8% year over year — a three-year high — even before the full effects of energy supply disruptions rippled through the economy. Sunday’s oil price drop offers some relief, but energy markets are expected to remain disrupted for months even with Hormuz reopening, meaning the inflation picture won’t clear quickly.

On growth: the Fed must assess whether economic softening justifies rate cuts. A blowout May jobs report had spurred some bets that the Fed’s next move could be a rate hike — a possibility Trump publicly pushed back against Sunday — while manufacturing and housing data have pointed to gradual cooling without triggering a consensus for immediate easing.

On geopolitical risk: the Iran deal materially changes — but does not eliminate — this variable. Nuclear program negotiations are expected to be addressed separately, with formal signing set for Friday in Switzerland. Remaining uncertainties around sanctions relief, Iranian oil supply returning to markets, and regional stability will keep the geopolitical risk premium in play, even as the most acute energy-supply threat recedes.

J.P. Morgan’s chief investment strategist has said the Fed will likely make an explicit move away from an easing bias toward a neutral stance on rates, with most analysts now expecting rates to hold through year-end regardless of this week’s outcome.

Beyond the Fed meeting, retail sales on Wednesday will provide a critical look at consumer spending, while housing starts, industrial production and regional manufacturing surveys will fill out the picture of where growth stands. Thursday’s jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed survey offer a final pre-cycle read on labor and industrial conditions.

The Group of Seven leaders’ summit also runs this week, where the Iran deal, energy security and global trade policy will now take on added urgency alongside the Fed’s decisions. With oil markets already moving sharply and financial markets recalibrating geopolitical risk in real time, Chair Warsh’s debut may prove to be the most consequential — and unpredictable — Fed press conference in years.

Mon., June 15

• G7 Summit (runs through Wednesday) | Empire State Manufacturing | Industrial Production | Housing Market Index

Tue., June 16

• Housing Starts | Import & Export Prices  

Wed., June 17

• Retail Sales | Business Inventories | Pending Home Sales Index | Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations  | FOMC statement | FOMC projections | Fed Chair presser

Thur., June 18

• Jobless Claims | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing | Leading Indicators   

Fri., June 19 

• U.S. markets and government offices are closed   

—S&P Global Energy on Friday released its estimates of the crop acres. The firm puts corn at 96 million acres, 662,000 acres larger than intentions.  Soybeans were estimated at 85.3 million acres, up 600,000 from intentions. The corn area would be up 300,000 from the firm’s prior estimate while the soybean figure would be unchanged.
 

—Overnight grain markets under pressure as favorable weather weighs on prices

Corn, soybeans and wheat extend losses overnight; soybean oil leads decline while meal holds firm

Grain futures traded lower overnight as improving U.S. crop conditions, favorable weather forecasts across much of the Corn Belt, and broader weakness in energy markets pressured agricultural commodities. The sharpest losses were seen in wheat and soybean oil, while soybean meal managed a modest gain.

July corn futures fell 6 cents to $4.0675 per bushel, extending recent weakness as traders focus on generally favorable growing conditions across the Midwest. Forecasts call for periodic rainfall across much of the Corn Belt over the next two weeks, supporting crop development while keeping heat stress limited. With USDA recently projecting large supplies and no immediate weather threat emerging, the market continues to struggle to find bullish momentum.

July soybeans declined 10¾ cents to $11.0275 per bushel. Soybean futures were pressured by the sharp drop in soybean oil, which fell 1.68 cents to 72.60 cents per pound. The weakness in soyoil follows a broader decline in crude oil prices after reports of a U.S./Iran agreement that could eventually restore additional oil supplies to global markets. Lower energy prices often weigh on biofuel-related feedstocks, including soybean oil.

Supporting the soybean complex somewhat was July soybean meal, which gained 30 cents to $301.60 per short ton. Meal continues to find underlying support from strong domestic livestock feed demand and expectations for tighter global protein meal supplies relative to vegetable oils.

Wheat futures posted the largest losses overnight. July Chicago SRW wheat fell 12½ cents to $5.72 per bushel, while July Kansas City HRW wheat dropped 12¼ cents to $6.2225. Harvest pressure remains a major factor as winter wheat cutting expands across the Southern Plains. At the same time, beneficial moisture forecasts for portions of the U.S. wheat belt and ongoing competition from lower-priced Black Sea wheat continue to limit buying interest.

The grain trade is also reacting to weakness across outside markets. Crude oil prices have fallen sharply from recent highs, reducing inflation concerns and diminishing speculative interest in commodity markets broadly. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remains relatively firm, maintaining a competitive disadvantage for U.S. grain exports.

For now, weather remains the dominant driver. Forecasts continue to point toward near- to above-normal rainfall across central and eastern Corn Belt states with temperatures generally running below seasonal averages. Unless a significant weather threat develops later this summer, traders are likely to remain focused on expectations for large U.S. corn and soybean crops and expanding global grain supplies.

Overnight Prices

• July Corn: $4.0675, down 6 cents

• July Soybeans: $11.0275, down 10¾ cents

• July Soybean Meal: $301.60/ton, up $0.30

• July Soybean Oil: 72.60 cents/lb, down 1.68 cents

• July Chicago Wheat (SRW): $5.72, down 12½ cents

• July Kansas City Wheat (HRW): $6.2225, down 12¼ cents

The combination of favorable weather, harvest pressure in wheat, and sharply lower energy prices has created a defensive tone across the grain complex heading into the start of the new trading week.

—International grain markets weaken as Northern hemisphere harvest pressure builds

New-crop wheat supplies pressure global markets; palm oil retreats

International grain and oilseed markets opened the week under pressure as harvest activity expands across the Northern Hemisphere and traders anticipate larger supplies entering export channels over the next several weeks. 

Paris September milling wheat futures fell €1.50/MT to €199.25/MT. Using an exchange rate near $1.15/euro, that equates to approximately $229/MT, or about $6.23 per bushel. The decline reflects improving harvest prospects across Europe and intensifying competition from Black Sea exporters.

Russian wheat values continue their seasonal slide as combines move into southern production areas. Russian July shipment wheat was bid at $241/MT FOB, equivalent to roughly $6.56/bushel, while August shipment wheat was offered at $235/MT FOB, or about $6.39/bushel. The discount between July and August values signals expectations for rapidly expanding new-crop supplies and aggressive export selling as harvest progresses.  For comparison, a $241/MT FOB Russian wheat value translates to approximately $6.56/bushel, which remains competitive with many U.S. Gulf export offers after accounting for freight differentials. As Russian export prices move lower, they tend to establish the benchmark for wheat importers in North Africa, the Middle East and Asia, creating headwinds for U.S. and European exporters.

Malaysian August palm oil futures fell 25 ringgits to 4,450 ringgits/MT, equivalent to roughly $1,050/MT or 47.6 cents per pound. Weakness in palm oil can spill over into competing vegetable oils, including soybean oil, an important factor for U.S. soybean and renewable diesel markets.

The European wheat harvest is expected to begin in earnest during July, while Russian harvest activity is already accelerating. As a result, the market’s focus is shifting away from production uncertainty and toward the pace of harvest deliveries, export competition and crop quality.

From a U.S. perspective, lower Russian and European wheat prices generally act as a bearish influence on Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures because they increase competition for global export business. Unless weather problems develop in major producing regions, seasonal harvest pressure is likely to remain the dominant feature of international grain markets through the remainder of June and into July.

—Agriculture markets Friday and weekly change:

—USDA reports to watch this week
Monday’s Crop Progress report will be the primary market mover. For livestock markets, Thursday’s Cattle on Feed report is the marquee release and could significantly influence feeder cattle, live cattle, and beef market expectations heading into summer. 

This week’s USDA calendar is relatively light, but several reports could influence grain, cotton, and livestock markets. The most important release is Monday’s Crop Progress report, which will provide updated condition ratings and development data for corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton. With weather remaining a dominant market driver, traders will closely monitor whether recent rainfall improves crop prospects in some areas while creating planting and harvest delays in others.

Export demand will also remain in focus through the weekly Export Inspections report, while ERS outlook reports for cotton, oilseeds, feed grains, wheat, and rice will offer updated supply-and-demand analysis and price expectations.

For livestock markets, Thursday’s Cattle on Feed report is the marquee event of the week. The report will provide updated data on feedlot inventories, placements, and marketings, offering one of the clearest indicators of future beef production. With U.S. cattle numbers near multi-decade lows and packers facing ongoing supply constraints, the report could have important implications for both cattle futures and beef prices during the second half of the year.

Also drawing attention will be ERS’s Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, which will provide updated forecasts for meat and dairy production, trade, and prices, as well as the Season-Average Price Forecasts report that updates USDA’s outlook for farm-level commodity prices.

The week concludes with the Juneteenth holiday on Friday, leaving markets to digest crop conditions, export demand, and cattle supply signals as the primary fundamental drivers heading into the final weeks of June.

Mon., June 15

• AMS. Export Inspections ERS: Cotton and Wool Outlook Tables | Oil Crops Outlook | Feed Outlook | Wheat Outlook | Rice Outlook NASS: Turkey Hatchery | Crop Progress
• MARS bulletin on Ukraine crop conditions
• National Oilseed Processors Association monthly crush report
• Malaysia June 1-15 palm oil exports
• Malaysia palm oil export tax for July
• Holiday: Argentina

Tue., June 16

• ERS: Vegetables and Pulses Data | Fruit & Tree Nut Data
• EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• France agriculture ministry report — estimates for key crops
• Holiday: Indonesia

Wed., June 17

• ERS: Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook | Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook NASS: Floriculture Crops | Broiler Hatchery
• FranceAgriMer monthly grains balance sheet
• Holiday: Malaysia

Thur., June 18

• ERS: Season-Average Price Forecasts NASS: Cattle on Feed | Slaughter Weekly | Potato Stocks | Peanut Prices
• China’s second batch of May trade data, including grains, sugar, cotton, palm oil, pork and beef imports

Fri., June 19
• Juneteenth holiday. U.S. markets and government offices are closed   
• FranceAgriMer weekly crop conditions data
• Holiday: U.S., China  

—Wisconsin dairy farmers challenge checkoff program over sustainability spending

Lawsuit argues mandatory dairy assessments are funding environmental initiatives beyond the program’s original purpose

A new legal challenge filed by three Wisconsin dairy farmers is raising fresh questions about how federal commodity checkoff dollars can be used and whether producers should be compelled to support programs with which they disagree.

The lawsuit targets USDA’s Dairy Checkoff Program, a producer-funded promotion system that requires dairy farmers to pay an assessment on milk sales. The checkoff was established under the Dairy Production Stabilization Act of 1983 to support dairy promotion, research and consumer education programs designed to increase demand for dairy products. The program is administered through USDA oversight and largely carried out by industry organizations such as Dairy Management Inc. (DMI).

The Wisconsin farmers contend that some checkoff dollars are now being directed toward environmental sustainability, climate-related initiatives and other policy-oriented activities that extend beyond the program’s statutory mission of promoting dairy consumption. The plaintiffs argue that they are being forced to finance speech and advocacy with which they disagree, despite the assessments being mandatory.

At the center of the dispute is a broader debate that has emerged across agriculture over sustainability programs. Dairy organizations have increasingly promoted efforts related to greenhouse gas reductions, methane management, conservation practices and environmental stewardship as major food companies, retailers and consumers place greater emphasis on sustainability metrics. Industry groups argue that such efforts help maintain market access, strengthen dairy’s public image and improve long-term competitiveness.

The farmers bringing the suit, however, argue that checkoff funds should be focused on traditional promotion and research activities rather than environmental initiatives that may carry political or ideological implications. The case could test the limits of how broadly USDA and dairy promotion organizations can interpret the checkoff’s mandate.

The lawsuit also fits within a longer history of legal challenges involving commodity checkoff programs. Mandatory assessments for beef, pork, dairy and other commodities have faced repeated First Amendment challenges from producers who object to being required to fund collective marketing efforts. Courts have generally upheld checkoff programs as a form of government-authorized speech, but disputes continue over transparency, oversight and the scope of activities funded through the assessments.

For the dairy industry, the stakes extend beyond Wisconsin. A ruling that restricts the use of checkoff dollars for sustainability-related initiatives could influence how commodity promotion programs across agriculture address environmental issues. Conversely, a decision favoring USDA and dairy promotion organizations could reinforce the ability of checkoff programs to support broader industry strategies that include sustainability, climate and conservation goals alongside traditional marketing efforts.

The case is likely to be closely watched by dairy producers, commodity groups and agricultural organizations nationwide as the debate over the proper role of producer-funded promotion programs continues to evolve.

—CFTC scrutinizes CME’s push for 24/7 energy futures trading

Regulators signal concerns that round-the-clock crude oil trading could amplify volatility and strain market oversight as CME seeks to expand continuous trading

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is reportedly weighing whether to halt or delay plans by CME Group to introduce 24-hour-a-day, seven-day-a-week trading in select crude oil and gold futures contracts, according to a Bloomberg report. The proposal would mark a significant shift in U.S. futures markets, particularly for energy contracts that have traditionally operated with scheduled maintenance and settlement windows.

Bloomberg reported that CME’s announcement caught some CFTC officials by surprise. Regulators are said to be particularly concerned about the implications of continuous trading in crude oil futures, a market already known for sharp price swings during periods of geopolitical tension, supply disruptions, and low-liquidity trading hours. The concern is that eliminating market pauses could exacerbate volatility during overnight or weekend trading when participation is thinner and price discovery may be less efficient.

The issue comes just weeks after the CFTC issued a staff advisory (link) on May 29 addressing the growing interest in 24/7 trading across financial markets. While the advisory acknowledged the potential for innovation and expanded market access, it also emphasized that exchanges, clearing organizations, brokers, and other market participants remain subject to all requirements under the Commodity Exchange Act and related regulations.

The advisory highlighted several operational and regulatory challenges associated with continuous trading, including risk management, cybersecurity, system resilience, market surveillance, clearing operations, and customer protection. CFTC staff also noted that different asset classes present unique considerations and that a one-size-fits-all approach to round-the-clock trading may not be appropriate.

For CME, the move reflects growing pressure from global markets that increasingly operate on a near-continuous basis. Cryptocurrency markets already trade 24/7, and investor demand for around-the-clock access to risk management tools has grown as geopolitical and macroeconomic developments frequently occur outside traditional U.S. trading hours.

However, regulators appear concerned that energy markets may present different challenges than financial or digital asset markets. Crude oil futures are among the most heavily traded and economically significant contracts in the world, serving as a benchmark for global energy pricing and a critical hedging tool for producers, refiners, airlines, and investors.

At this stage, it remains unclear whether the CFTC will formally oppose CME’s plans or simply require additional review and safeguards before implementation. Nevertheless, the initial reaction from regulators suggests that the agency believes further analysis is warranted before allowing continuous trading in one of the world’s most important commodity markets. The debate is likely to become a key test case as exchanges push toward longer trading hours while regulators seek to balance innovation with market stability, liquidity, and effective oversight.

—Monday: oil prices tumble as U.S./Iran peace deal signals return of Persian Gulf supply

Agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore Iranian exports eases fears of a prolonged global energy shock

Crude oil prices fell sharply Monday, with WTI dropping more than 5% to around $80 per barrel and touching their lowest levels in roughly two months after the United States and Iran reportedly reached a peace agreement that could end months of disruption in one of the world’s most critical energy corridors. Brent crude was done nearly 5% at just over $83, a three-month low. 

The selloff reflects a dramatic shift in market expectations. For much of the spring, energy traders had priced in the risk that the conflict between Washington and Tehran could evolve into a prolonged confrontation that would keep millions of barrels of oil trapped in the Persian Gulf. With a framework agreement now in place, investors are rapidly removing the geopolitical risk premium that had been built into crude prices.

President Donald Trump said the agreement would pave the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by the end of the week and allow normal energy shipments to resume from the region. Reports indicate the deal also includes the lifting of U.S. restrictions on Iranian ports and a pathway for increased Iranian oil exports if Tehran complies with provisions related to its nuclear program.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed that an agreement had been reached and indicated that the final text would be released after a formal signing ceremony in Switzerland. According to reports, the accord contains commitments aimed at dismantling key elements of Iran’s nuclear program while providing economic incentives and sanctions relief tied to compliance.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s most important oil chokepoint, carrying roughly 20% of global petroleum and petroleum-product shipments. Since hostilities escalated in late February, disruptions to shipping traffic and heightened security concerns significantly reduced energy flows through the region, forcing consuming nations to draw down inventories and prompting concerns about potential shortages.

The prospect of reopening the waterway has immediate implications for global supply balances. Energy markets had been preparing for the possibility of sustained restrictions on Gulf exports from Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. If normal shipping resumes, several million barrels per day of crude oil could return more reliably to international markets, easing concerns about tight supplies during the second half of the year.

The decline in crude prices also reflects expectations that emergency stockpile draws may become less necessary. Governments and refiners around the world have spent months managing supply disruptions through inventory releases and alternative sourcing strategies. A restoration of Persian Gulf flows would allow inventories to stabilize and potentially begin rebuilding.

Even with the sharp decline, analysts caution that oil markets may remain volatile until the agreement is formally signed and implemented. Traders will be watching closely for confirmation that shipping lanes are fully reopened, sanctions provisions are clarified, and Iran begins meeting its obligations under the accord.

For now, however, the market’s message is clear: the risk of a major supply shock from the Middle East has diminished significantly. Unless implementation problems emerge, the peace agreement could mark the beginning of a substantial reset in global energy markets, reducing inflationary pressures and easing concerns that elevated oil prices would spill over into broader commodity and economic activity during the second half of 2026.

—SunZia Wind project marks milestone for U.S. renewable energy Despite political headwinds

Nation’s largest wind farm begins operations after two decades of development, highlighting both the scale of America’s clean-energy buildout and the growing policy uncertainty facing the sector

The long-awaited launch of the SunZia Wind project in New Mexico represents a landmark moment for the U.S. renewable energy industry. With a generating capacity of 3.5 gigawatts, SunZia is now the largest wind-energy installation in the United States and among the largest onshore wind projects in the world. After years of construction and extensive testing, commercial operations could begin as early as this week, delivering enough electricity to power roughly one million homes across the Southwest.

The project consists of more than 900 wind turbines spread across central New Mexico and is linked to major population centers through a 550-mile high-voltage transmission line that carries electricity westward into Arizona and California. The transmission component is nearly as significant as the wind farm itself, addressing one of the biggest challenges facing renewable energy development: moving power from resource-rich rural areas to urban markets where demand is concentrated.

SunZia’s completion is particularly notable because it demonstrates that large-scale energy infrastructure projects can still be built in the United States despite increasingly complex permitting requirements. Originally proposed in 2006, the project spent nearly two decades navigating environmental reviews, land-use disputes, military airspace concerns, legal challenges, and regulatory approvals before construction could proceed. The lengthy timeline underscores a broader issue affecting all forms of energy infrastructure, including renewables, pipelines, transmission lines, and conventional power generation.

Economically, SunZia arrives at a critical time for western electricity markets. Power demand is rising due to population growth, data-center expansion, electrification initiatives, and increasing air-conditioning needs during hotter summers. Additional renewable generation helps utilities diversify power supplies while reducing exposure to natural gas price volatility. California, in particular, continues to seek new sources of carbon-free electricity as it pursues aggressive emissions-reduction goals.

Yet the project’s launch comes amid a markedly different political environment than existed when construction began. The Trump administration has rolled back or curtailed several federal incentives supporting renewable energy development and has taken a more favorable stance toward fossil fuel production. Industry analysts warn that reduced tax incentives, tighter permitting scrutiny, and uncertainty surrounding future federal support could slow the pace of new wind development nationwide.

Research firms already project a moderation in U.S. wind-energy growth over the remainder of the decade. Some developers have delayed projects amid rising construction costs, supply-chain challenges, higher interest rates, and evolving federal policy. The combination of economic and regulatory pressures has led many investors to reassess the timing and profitability of future wind installations.

Despite those concerns, market fundamentals continue to support renewable generation in many regions. Wind and solar power remain among the lowest-cost sources of new electricity generation in much of the country. Utilities, corporate buyers, and state governments continue signing long-term power purchase agreements to secure clean energy supplies. California recently set multiple wind-generation records, reflecting both expanding capacity and favorable weather conditions.

For the broader energy sector, SunZia illustrates the growing importance of transmission infrastructure. Many analysts argue that transmission bottlenecks—not a lack of wind or solar resources—have become the primary constraint on expanding renewable energy. Projects capable of moving large volumes of electricity across state lines are increasingly viewed as essential to maintaining grid reliability and meeting future power demand.

The completion of SunZia therefore represents more than the opening of a single wind farm. It serves as a test case for whether America can continue building large-scale energy infrastructure in an era of rising electricity demand, regulatory complexity, and shifting political priorities. While federal policy may influence the pace of future development, the project’s arrival demonstrates that powerful economic and market forces continue to drive investment in renewable energy across the United States.

—California startup claims first farm-to-flight SAF conversion

Circularity Fuels says end-to-end biogas process could help airlines meet mandates at near-conventional fuel costs

Circularity Fuels says it has completed what it describes as the world’s first end-to-end conversion of raw agricultural biogas into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), a milestone the Redwood City, Calif., startup says brings cost-competitive SAF within reach.

The company announced it successfully converted biogas from a California Central Valley dairy farm into synthesis gas, a key precursor to SAF, using a compact electric processing unit at one-hundredth the cost of conventional steam methane or autothermal reformers.

The conversion relies on Circularity’s proprietary Ouro Reactor, a fully electrified microchannel reactor that draws on the design principles of automotive catalytic converters — affordable, mass-manufacturable, compact and capable of operating at temperatures near 1,000 degrees Celsius. The demonstration marks the first time farm raw biogas from a lagoon digester has been electrically reformed into a jet-fuel precursor without combustion. The reactor operates on standard electrical connections, uses industrially proven catalysts and processes raw biogas without expensive pre-treatment, maintaining stable operation despite contaminants that would damage conventional reformers.

The company combines the methane and carbon dioxide components of biogas into syngas, then converts the syngas into SAF via a next-generation Fischer-Tropsch process. When paired with scaled-down Fischer-Tropsch systems, the distributed units can produce liquid fuel on-site that can be transported by truck or rail, eliminating the need for pipeline infrastructure.

The economics could be transformative for both farmers and airlines. The Ouro Reactor slashes reforming costs from millions to tens of thousands of dollars, making the technology affordable enough to deploy directly at large farms. The company believes the process will help airlines meet mandates for sustainable fuel alternatives while unlocking billions of dollars in new revenue streams for farmers.

The opportunity is substantial. America’s large livestock operations generate nearly a trillion pounds of manure annually, yet less than 6% of those farms capture biogas from waste decomposition. If deployed across all viable waste sites in the U.S. — including farms, landfills and wastewater treatment plants — biogas-to-SAF technology could produce 42 million gallons per day, meeting 70% of the nation’s jet fuel demand.

The milestone comes at a critical moment for the aviation industry. Airlines face increasing mandates to incorporate SAF into their fuel mix, with current production meeting less than 1% of demand.

Circularity Fuels was founded by Dr. Stephen Beaton, a former U.S. Air Force Petroleum Office Deployed Lab Chief, and emerged from DCVC’s entrepreneur-in-residence program. The company has raised $8 million in funding from venture capital firms and public grants, including support from the National Science Foundation and the California Energy Commission. Commercial deployment is targeted for 2026 across farms in California and beyond.

—Key energy reports and events to watch this week

Energy markets enter the week focused on inventory trends, global supply outlooks, and the evolving demand picture amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. The most closely watched data releases will come from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency, both of which could influence crude oil, refined products, natural gas, and biofuel markets.

The week’s primary market-moving event will be Wednesday’s EIA Petroleum Status Report. Traders will scrutinize changes in U.S. crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories, particularly after recent disruptions to global supply chains and concerns about tightening stockpiles. The EIA’s Weekly Ethanol Production report will also be important for agricultural and biofuel markets, providing insight into corn demand and fuel blending activity.

Also on Wednesday, the International Energy Agency will release its Monthly Oil Market Report, offering updated forecasts for global oil demand, non-OPEC production growth, inventories, and market balances. The report comes at a critical time as markets assess the impact of Middle East developments on global energy flows and price volatility.

On Thursday, attention shifts to the EIA Natural Gas Storage Report, a key gauge of supply adequacy heading into the summer cooling season. Markets will also analyze OPEC’s World Oil Outlook, which provides the cartel’s long-term forecasts for global oil demand, production capacity, investment needs, and the role of fossil fuels in the energy transition.

Weekly inventory estimates from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday and ARA storage data in Europe on Wednesday will offer additional clues regarding near-term supply conditions. Meanwhile, preliminary August loading schedules from Angola and other export programs will be watched for signals on global crude availability.

Finally, Baker Hughes rig count data released at week’s end will provide an updated measure of U.S. drilling activity. With oil prices elevated and producers weighing capital discipline against stronger market incentives, investors will be looking for signs that higher prices are beginning to translate into increased drilling and future production growth.

Overall, the combination of U.S. inventory data, IEA and OPEC outlook reports, and ongoing geopolitical developments should make this one of the more consequential weeks for energy markets in recent months.

Mon., June 15
• BNEF Summit Amsterdam | Baku Energy Forum, runs through Tuesday | Holidays: Argentina; Azerbaijan

Tue., June 16
• API US inventory report | Africa Energy Forum, Cape Town; runs through Friday | Agora Energy report on China’s energy transition/climate status | Angola preliminary loading program (August) WTI July options expire | Holidays: Indonesia
 

Wed., June 17
• EIA Petroleum Status Report | Weekly Ethanol Production | Genscape ARA inventories | IEA Monthly Oil Market Report | FT Climate & Impact Summit, London; runs through Thursday | Holidays: Malaysia; Thailand

Thur., June 18 

• EIA Natural Gas Report | Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data | BNEF Forum Seoul  | OPEC World Oil Outlook report | WTI July CSOs expire | Baker-Hughes Rig Count Holidays: Egypt

Fri., June 19 

• ICE weekly Commitments of Tradersreport for Brent, gasoil | CFTC Commitments of Traders (delayed until June 22) | Holidays: US; China; Taiwan; Hong Kong

—A week of Iran agreement details, immigration victories, and election day across the District. 

The week of June 15 opens with Washington in an unusual posture: While the Senate is in this week, the House is on a district work period through June 22 with no floor votes expected until the following week. The White House is dominating the national conversation with a potential diplomatic breakthrough that could reshape the geopolitical and energy landscape for the remainder of the Trump presidency.

—Iran deal dominates. The most consequential development heading into the week is the announced agreement between the United States and Iran to end the conflict that began with U.S. and Israeli strikes earlier this year (see Blue Box above for details). President Trump declared on Sunday, June 14, that a deal with Iran is “complete,” with details of a draft memorandum of understanding released by Iranian state-affiliated media confirming that the agreement includes a provision that Iran reaffirm its commitment to abstain from producing nuclear weapons. The announcement came on Trump’s 80th birthday — he became only the second sitting U.S. president to reach octogenarian status in office, marking the day alongside family members while also working to finalize the Iran peace framework and hosting an unprecedented UFC fight card on the South Lawn as part of the America 250 semiquincentennial celebration.

Recent talks mediated by Pakistan and Qatar had advanced a potential U.S./Iran memorandum of understanding covering the end of the 2026 conflict, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear program and enriched uranium, and easing of sanctions. Fractures remained within Iranian leadership about how to proceed, but the Trump administration believed the majority of officials were committed to the prospective agreement, with much of the messaging coming out of Tehran aimed at selling the deal domestically. The Strait of Hormuz’s status has been a central concern for commodity and energy markets throughout the conflict, and even a preliminary agreement is expected to ease oil price pressures that have reverberated through the agricultural input complex, particularly for fertilizer and fuel costs.

—Leaders of France, Britain, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States will meet on the shores of Lake Geneva for the G7 summit, which the European Union will also participate in, with host France aiming to accommodate President Trump. Besides discussing ongoing conflicts, the sourcing of critical minerals and global economic imbalances are also on the agenda — two issues in which China, which will not be at the summit, looms large.

—Trump, Modi set for G7 sideline talks as India trade deal hangs in balance. President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are confirmed to meet June 17 on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Évian-les-Bains, France — their first in-person engagement since Modi’s visit to Washington in February 2025, shortly after Trump’s return to the White House. Ties between New Delhi and Washington have been strained by U.S. tariffs on Indian goods and Trump’s repeated assertions — which India denies — that he intervened to end India’s brief military conflict last year with Pakistan.

The mood has improved in recent weeks, however, and India’s trade minister said last week the first tranche of a bilateral trade agreement could be concluded by mid-July.

Agenda items include the proposed additional Section 301 tariff and India’s pushback against it, H-1B visa restrictions and their impact on Indian professionals in the U.S., and broader AI cooperation.

A senior U.S. official said Trump and Modi would have a good opportunity to take stock of the trade talks, but further technical discussions would likely be needed to close a deal.

—Congress: House out, Senate in. The Senate is in session, with a unanimous consent agreement reached providing for a Senate vote on the confirmation of Brock Dahl of Maryland to be Legal Adviser of the Department of State on Monday, June 15, while a nomination was received for Walter Clayton of New York to be Director of National Intelligence.

Attention on Capitol Hill is now turning to the FY 2027 appropriations process. The House Appropriations Committee completed a markup on the Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies Appropriations Bill for FY 2027, as well as the Homeland Security Appropriations Bill for FY 2027, with both bills ordered reported as amended. The Senate is expected to take up its own spending measures in the weeks before the August recess, with FY 2026 appropriations having been completed only in April after a DHS shutdown that ran from Feb. 14 through April 30 left lawmakers with little appetite for a repeat performance.

Separately, some House conservatives have floated the idea of a third reconciliation package — sometimes called “Reconciliation 3.0” — before Congress leaves for its August break. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has warned that changes to the tax code could open up parts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to relitigation, a concern that has tempered enthusiasm among Senate Republicans even as some House members push for additional legislative action heading into the midterms.

—Waiting on Senate farm bill language. Senate Ag Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark.) has said language on Farm Bill 2.0  would come “in the next week or so.” The markup will not be held before the July 4 recess. The House passed the $390 billion, five-year bill on April 30 with a 224 to 200 vote — the farthest a farm bill has progressed since the 2018 reauthorization. But the Senate faces a fundamentally different arithmetic. Senate leaders will likely need at least nine Democratic votes to overcome procedural barriers and advance a final package, meaning Boozman cannot simply replicate what the House did on a party-line basis.

The central obstacle to winning those Democratic votes is the SNAP cost-sharing provision that was embedded in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Boozman acknowledged there is “lots of concern” about the OBBBA provision that will require states to pay a portion of SNAP costs depending on their payment error rates. Ranking Member Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota has complained bitterly that the provision gives states with the highest error rates more time before it goes into effect, while states with mid-level error rates — including Minnesota — will have to absorb the costs much sooner.

Boozman said negotiations with Democrats are taking place on this front but that there are limits due to the costs, adding that negotiators are “trying to figure out a pathway.” Both Boozman and House Ag Chairman GT Thompson (R-Pa.) have said they have no plans to reopen the SNAP cost-sharing provision in the farm bill itself, a position that puts them in direct tension with Klobuchar and most Senate Democrats.

There are also clear signals about what will not be in the Senate bill. The Senate draft is not expected to include provisions restricting state pesticide laws, and Boozman has confirmed that language pre-empting California’s Proposition 12 livestock standards — sometimes called the “Save Our Bacon Act” — will not appear in the Senate base bill. That represents a notable departure from the House-passed version, which included more aggressive pre-emption language that drew opposition from a coalition of animal welfare, public health, and state’s rights advocates.

On the commodity title, the farm safety net upgrades that Boozman has championed are largely already law through the OBBBA. That law raised reference prices for covered commodities, with subsequent incremental increases starting in 2031, expanded payment limits, created new base-acre opportunities, and extended dairy support programs through 2031. That means the standalone farm bill will need to address what the reconciliation bill left undone — including a broader conservation title, rural development investments, trade promotion, research funding, and the crop insurance enhancements that didn’t fit within reconciliation’s rules.

On E15, Boozman said he believes year-round nationwide E15 sales should be handled in a standalone bill rather than the farm bill, noting that E15 is outside the Senate Ag Committee’s jurisdiction and that the House struggled to reach a workable compromise in its version.

— Primary elections: Georgia, Oklahoma, and DC. Tuesday, June 16 brings a busy primary election day spanning Georgia runoffs, Oklahoma’s first primary of the cycle, and a consequential Democratic primary in the District of Columbia.

• In Georgia, the highest-profile contest is the Republican gubernatorial runoff between Trump-endorsed Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones and healthcare billionaire Rick Jackson. Jones led the May 19 primary field with roughly 38 percent of the vote while Jackson followed with roughly 32 percent, but neither secured the outright majority required, sending them to a runoff. Jackson poured $80 million of his own money into advertising since launching his campaign in February, blanketing Georgia’s airwaves so thoroughly that Republicans running for other offices struggled to attract attention in their own races. A Jones win would boost Trump’s influence in a critical battleground state, where the president’s kingmaker record had been shaky — failing to dislodge Governor Brian Kemp and others in 2022 and backing Herschel Walker in a Senate loss that year.

Georgia Republicans are also deciding a U.S. Senate runoff. The Republican Senate race heads to a runoff between Mike Collins and Derek Dooley, with the winner set to face Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in November. Ossoff faces no Democratic primary opposition and has positioned himself as a prominent Trump critic, making his race one of the most watched Senate contests in the country as Democrats attempt to reclaim the chamber majority.

• In Oklahoma, the June 16 primary is the state’s first major election of the cycle, with a U.S. Senate seat open after Markwayne Mullin resigned to become Trump’s Secretary of Homeland Security. Kevin Hern, who represented Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District in the Tulsa area, is the Republican frontrunner having secured Trump’s endorsement within 48 hours of announcing his Senate campaign and having raised $8.2 million heading into primary day. The Senate seat is rated safe Republican, and Democrats have not won an Oklahoma Senate race since David Boren in 1990.

Oklahoma Republicans are also choosing a new governor, with nine Republican candidates on the ballot for the open seat vacated by the term-limited Kevin Stitt.

• The District of Columbia holds what analysts are calling one of its most consequential local elections in decades. Because an overwhelming majority of the District’s registered voters are Democrats, many of the races will effectively be decided on June 16. Voters are selecting candidates for mayor, delegate to Congress, attorney general, and several D.C. Council seats, and will be using ranked-choice voting for the first time in D.C. history.

The open mayor’s race is particularly significant: incumbent Mayor Muriel Bowser is retiring after three consecutive four-year terms, and the Democratic nominee who emerges from Tuesday’s primary will be heavily favored in November. The mayoral contest centers on Council member Janeese Lewis George and former Council member Kenyan McDuffie, who resigned his council seat to run.

On the congressional delegate front, Robert White Jr. and Brooke Pinto remain the leading contenders in the D.C. Democratic delegate race, which will choose the party’s nominee for the District’s nonvoting U.S. House seat following the retirement of the long-serving Eleanor Holmes Norton.

— NWS outlook: Increasing threat of significant heavy rainfall from South Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley through the next couple of days… …Rain exiting New England this morning as much cooler air surges into the eastern two-thirds of the country… …Heat across the Pacific Northwest will begin to moderate on Tuesday.

—Corn Belt faces persistent wetness while cooler temperatures dominate forecast

Repeated rainfall events threaten late soybean planting in Missouri and slow wheat harvest progress across major production regions, while below-normal temperatures eliminate near-term heat stress concerns 

Weather conditions across the U.S. Corn Belt are expected to remain a key market focus over the next two weeks as a pattern of recurring rainfall and unusually cool temperatures persists across much of the nation’s crop-producing regions.

Forecasters expect only limited precipitation through Tuesday, but rainfall activity is projected to increase beginning Wednesday and continue intermittently through the remainder of the 15-day outlook period. Western portions of the Corn Belt are expected to receive near-normal precipitation, while central and eastern areas are forecast to experience above-normal rainfall totals.

Missouri remains a particular concern. Persistent wet conditions, combined with ongoing flood warnings, are expected to make completion of the state’s remaining soybean planting extremely difficult. With an estimated 15% of Missouri’s soybean acreage still unplanted, excessive moisture could further delay fieldwork and raise questions about prevented planting and yield potential.

The wet pattern is also expected to hamper winter wheat harvest efforts. Soft red winter wheat areas across the Mid-South and eastern Corn Belt face an increasingly unfavorable harvest environment as repeated rainfall raises concerns about grain quality, disease pressure, and harvest delays. Meanwhile, the Hard Red Winter wheat belt is forecast to experience its wettest conditions during the 6-to-10-day period, with widespread rainfall totals ranging from 0.5 to 1.5 inches across key production areas.

Temperature forecasts provide a contrasting influence. Much of the Corn Belt is expected to average 4 to 6 degrees below normal through June 22, while the northern Plains could run 5 to 7 degrees below seasonal averages. The cooler pattern should significantly reduce crop stress and support favorable moisture retention, particularly for corn and soybeans already established. Importantly, forecasts show no indication of significant heat developing across major U.S. crop regions during the next 15 days.

From a market perspective, the outlook remains generally favorable for corn and soybean crop development due to ample moisture and the absence of heat stress. However, the continued wetness presents localized risks for unplanted soybean acreage, particularly in Missouri, and increases concerns about winter wheat harvest quality and progress across both soft red and hard red wheat growing regions. The combination of abundant moisture and cool temperatures continues to reinforce expectations for strong early-season row-crop conditions while creating mounting challenges for producers attempting to complete planting or harvest operations.