Iran Deal Framework Still Fluid as Key Details Remain Unresolved
Congress on Memorial Day break | SCOTUS rulings ahead | U.S./India trade deal nears completion (again) | Tuesday Texas primary
| LINKS |
Link: Weekend Updates, May 23-24: Trump: Iran Deal Near as
Hormuz Reopening, Nuclear Talks Take Shape; Details Murky
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, May 22
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, May 22
Topics discussed
1. Markets
2. Cattle on Feed report
3. Feeders down $11 at one time, closed down just over $6
4. Fertilizer strategy
5. Morocco CVDs
6. China ag trade update
7. Another strike at Dodge City KS, or will Ft Morgan close?
8. Supreme Court decision coming on pesticide labeling
9. Beef TRQs… internal Trump admin. differences
10. Senate farm bill
11. Food price update from USDA
12. FOMC minutes and Warsh new Fed head
13. Jones Act waiver analysis
| The Week Ahead: May 24, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— Iran deal framework still fluid as key details remain unresolved: Trump signals no rush on an Iran agreement as disputes over sanctions relief, uranium restrictions, and Hormuz enforcement leave both sides far from a binding accord.
— U.S./India trade deal nears completion (again): Rubio reports “tremendous progress” toward a bilateral trade pact aimed at rebalancing trade while expanding cooperation on energy, defense, and critical minerals.
— India’s economic rise accelerates: IMF projections suggest India could become the world’s third-largest economy by 2031, fueled by population growth, a rising middle class, and manufacturing ambitions.
— AI buildout fuels commodity supercycle fears: Veteran strategist Jeff Currie warns that surging AI infrastructure demand is setting the stage for a decade-long commodity supercycle driven by energy demand and supply underinvestment.
IN WASHINGTON THIS WEEK
— Congress on holiday break but will return to a packed ag, energy agenda: Lawmakers return in June facing a crowded docket spanning E15, Farm Bill 2.0, disaster aid, RFS volumes, and unresolved 45Z/SAF guidance.
— Trump, SCOTUS and high-stakes rulings ahead: The Court prepares major decisions on birthright citizenship, executive power, and Bayer pesticide liability as tensions between Trump and the justices intensify.
— Texas races Tuesday intensify as Senate battle draws national spotlight: The Cornyn/Paxton runoff has become a proxy fight over the GOP’s future, while Democrats rally behind James Talarico and Tom Sell’s congressional bid draws ag-world attention.
— Trump health update Tuesday in Walter Reed visit: Trump’s third dental visit this year and latest medical evaluations renew scrutiny over transparency and his health as he approaches his 80th birthday.
— Inflation test looms for Fed: Upcoming core PCE data could challenge the Fed as energy-driven price pressures and rising Treasury yields complicate the rate outlook under new Chair Kevin Warsh.
KEY EVENTS
— Washington events May 25-29: A shortened holiday week features Federal Reserve speakers, trade forums, AI discussions, and Indo-Pacific policy events amid continued monitoring of Iran ceasefire developments.
ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS
— Weekly economic preview — key data and global policy: A holiday-shortened week builds toward Thursday’s cluster of major releases including GDP, jobless claims, durable goods, and personal income and outlays.
AG REPORTS
— U.S. agriculture data calendar preview: Key USDA reports this week cover crop progress, livestock and meat data, agricultural trade outlook, export sales, and egg and peanut prices.
ENERGY REPORTS
— Energy market preview: key reports and events to watch this week: A Memorial Day-shortened week features API and EIA inventory reports, the IEA’s World Energy Investment launch, North Sea program deadlines, and the Baker-Hughes rig count to close the week.
| TOP STORIES — Iran deal framework still fluid as key details remain unresolvedTrump signals no rush for final agreement with Tehran as disputes over sanctions relief, uranium restrictions, and Hormuz enforcement underscore how far both sides still are from a binding accord President Donald Trump on Sunday cautioned that the emerging U.S./Iran understanding remains far from complete, stressing there is “no hurry” to finalize an agreement even after recent White House comments suggested a breakthrough was near. The latest signals from the administration highlight that while negotiators may have reached a broad framework tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing tensions, many of the most consequential provisions remain unresolved and could still change significantly during negotiations. According to a senior Trump administration official, the current agreement in principle would involve Iran fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. ending its blockade on Iranian shipping. However, specifics involving Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, enforcement mechanisms, and the timing of compliance remain “in flux.” Trump reinforced that uncertainty Sunday, saying his negotiators were instructed not to rush and emphasizing that any final arrangement must be fully “reached, certified, and signed” before restrictions are lifted. Iran, meanwhile, is reportedly demanding upfront sanctions relief and access to frozen assets early in the process, with Tehran warning the deal could collapse without meaningful economic concessions. Administration officials acknowledged there is currently no formal U.S. commitment on asset releases or initial sanctions relief, suggesting one of the largest negotiating gaps remains unresolved. Questions surrounding Iran’s nuclear program also remain unsettled. U.S. officials said Iran has accepted the principle of disposing of enriched uranium stockpiles, but negotiators have not agreed on how, where, or when that would occur. Iranian negotiators have reportedly floated a shorter suspension of uranium enrichment than the 20-year halt sought by Washington, while proposing that some enriched uranium could remain inside Iran under regional supervision. Administration officials suggested the White House may ultimately focus less on the duration of restrictions and more on enforcement mechanisms designed to prevent Iran from restarting enrichment activities. Middle Eastern mediators indicated the draft memorandum would extend the current cease-fire for at least 60 days, though Gulf Arab states remain concerned the agreement could leave Iran empowered to use Hormuz as leverage in future disputes. Regional officials also warned that Iran has yet to address its missile program or provide guarantees against future threats to Gulf energy infrastructure. The uncertainty surrounding the negotiations continues to reverberate through energy and financial markets. Analysts said investors are eager for clarity on how quickly commercial shipping could normalize through Hormuz and whether the arrangement would reduce — or merely postpone — future supply disruptions. Political resistance is also building in Washington and Israel. Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) criticized the prospect of a limited agreement that reopens Hormuz without permanently dismantling Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Israeli officials reportedly remain frustrated over limited consultation during negotiations and are concerned the phased approach could delay resolution of core nuclear issues indefinitely. The administration’s approach increasingly resembles the phased Gaza cease-fire model pursued earlier in Trump’s presidency — securing an immediate halt in hostilities while postponing the hardest political and security questions to later negotiations. But as critics note, those deferred issues often become the most difficult to resolve. — U.S./India trade deal nears completion (again)Rubio says negotiations have made “tremendous progress” as Washington and New Delhi move closer to a long-awaited trade pact aimed at rebalancing trade while expanding cooperation on energy, defense, and critical minerals U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Sunday that the United States and India are close to finalizing a major bilateral trade agreement that would be “beneficial” and “sustainable” for both sides, signaling growing momentum in efforts to stabilize relations after months of tariff-related tensions. Speaking alongside Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar in New Delhi, Rubio said negotiators have made “tremendous progress” toward a deal that would address U.S. concerns over trade imbalances while advancing broader strategic ties between the two countries. The talks covered trade, critical minerals, energy cooperation, and defense partnerships, reflecting Washington’s effort to deepen ties with India as part of a broader geopolitical and economic strategy in Asia. Rubio emphasized that President Donald Trump’s trade agenda is part of a global effort to rebalance U.S. trade relationships rather than a policy directed specifically at India. He argued that the administration is seeking more reciprocal and durable trade arrangements worldwide, including with major partners such as the European Union. Rubio also announced that a U.S. trade delegation will visit India “very soon” to continue negotiations, adding that the scale of India’s economy makes the talks especially significant for Washington. He noted that the administration believes the eventual agreement can strengthen both economies while protecting national interests on each side. The visit marked Rubio’s first official trip to India as Secretary of State and comes after bilateral relations faced strain over tariff disputes and trade policy disagreements during the past year. — India’s economic rise acceleratesIMF projections suggest India could become the world’s third-largest economy by 2031, reshaping the global economic order as growth outpaces most major nations New IMF forecasts highlighted by Visual Capitalist (link) show the global economy undergoing a major shift by the end of the decade, with the U.S. and China expected to remain the two dominant economic powers while India rapidly climbs the rankings. The analysis, based on the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook, points to India emerging as the fastest-growing major economy and potentially overtaking other advanced economies to claim the No. 3 spot globally by 2031. The projections underscore how India’s expanding population, rising middle class, digital transformation, and manufacturing ambitions are helping fuel long-term growth momentum. While the U.S. and China are still projected to maintain a sizable lead in overall economic size, analysts expect significant reshuffling among the world’s other largest economies as India gains ground. The IMF outlook also reflects broader changes in global trade, investment flows, and geopolitical influence, with India increasingly viewed as a critical growth engine for multinational companies and supply chains seeking alternatives beyond China. — AI buildout fuels commodity supercycle fearsBloomberg reports veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie believes the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure is setting the stage for a decade-long commodity supercycle driven by surging energy demand and years of underinvestment in supply According to Bloomberg, Currie argued that the global economy is entering the early stages of a new commodities boom as hyperscale AI data centers consume increasing amounts of power, fuel and raw materials. Currie, now executive co-chairman of Abaxx Markets and former longtime Goldman Sachs commodities chief, said the imbalance between rising demand and constrained supply could persist for another 10 to 12 years. Currie described energy as “the biggest asymmetric trade in modern finance,” pointing to strong free cash flow yields among major oil companies while many AI-focused technology firms generate little or no free cash flow. He promoted what he called the “Munificent Seven” — a group of major energy firms including ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Shell, TotalEnergies, BP and Equinor — as a way to capitalize on rising global energy needs tied to AI growth. Bloomberg noted Currie warned that inventories are being depleted even during what is typically the weakest seasonal demand period, signaling underlying stress in the global energy system. He argued that once inventories are exhausted, prices will need to rise sharply to ration demand, similar to the inflationary surge seen during 2020 and 2021. Currie also highlighted growing shortages in key industrial inputs, including jet fuel, diesel, gasoline and sulfuric acid, the latter of which is critical for copper production. He said those supply constraints are already contributing to record copper prices and could spread further across commodity markets. Meanwhile, Currie contended that policymakers and central bankers remain too complacent about the risks, while commodity producers and industrial executives are increasingly warning about mounting structural shortages beneath the surface of the global economy. |
| — IN WASHINGTON THIS WEEK |
— Congress on holiday break but will return to a packed ag, energy agenda
Memorial Day recess offers little relief as lawmakers face mounting pressure on E15, farm policy, disaster aid, biofuels and SAF incentives
With Congress away for the Memorial Day recess, agricultural and energy stakeholders are already looking ahead to what could become one of the busiest summer policy stretches in years. Senate Republicans and Democrats return in June facing a crowded agenda that spans year-round E15 legislation, the fate of “Farm Bill 2.0,” mounting calls for additional ag and farm disaster assistance, the Environmental Protection Agency’s next Renewable Fuel Standard proposal, and unresolved guidance surrounding the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF).
• At the center of the debate remains the Senate’s unresolved handling of nationwide year-round E15 sales. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) continues to support attaching E15 language to broader legislation. But jurisdictional complications remain a major hurdle because the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee — not the Agriculture Committee — controls fuel policy. Senate Ag Committee Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark.) has continued signaling optimism on broader farm bill movement, though several senators privately acknowledge that floor time and 60-vote realities could complicate standalone E15 action.
The politics surrounding E15 have also become more complicated following competing economic analyses. Supporters, including the National Corn Growers Association, argue expanded E15 access would strengthen corn demand and rural incomes over time. Meanwhile, some university-based analyses and livestock-sector concerns have raised questions about longer-term feed costs and the interaction with small refinery exemptions. Those tensions are expected to intensify as senators work through broader farm bill negotiations this summer.
• Meanwhile, Senate work on what many in Washington now refer to as “Farm Bill 2.0” remains ongoing, even after House passage of the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026. Senate negotiators continue wrestling with SNAP funding formulas, conservation funding, the California Prop 12 measure, and biofuel provisions. Several lawmakers have privately warned that timing remains difficult before the election season intensifies, raising the possibility Congress may once again rely on temporary extensions while negotiating narrower policy packages.
• Pressure is also building for another round of agricultural disaster and farmer assistance. Weather-related losses across portions of the Corn Belt, Southern Plains, Delta and Southeast — combined with lingering low commodity prices and elevated input costs — have renewed discussion about supplemental aid later this year. Lawmakers from both parties continue hearing from producers facing tight margins after multiple years of volatile weather, high interest rates and trade uncertainty.
Some agricultural groups are already quietly discussing the potential need for a broader producer assistance package if crop conditions deteriorate further during the summer growing season. That conversation is occurring alongside ongoing implementation questions surrounding the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), including expanded base acre provisions and evolving commodity support calculations.
• Biofuels policy could become even more volatile in June when the EPA is expected to release its proposed Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes for 2027 and potentially preliminary direction for later-year obligations. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin has repeatedly indicated the administration wants to move aggressively on the next phase of RFS policy, with the agency simultaneously facing pressure from ethanol producers, oil refiners, soybean processors and SAF developers.
The proposal is expected to offer the first major signal about how aggressively the Trump administration intends to push renewable fuel blending targets after months of industry lobbying. Ethanol groups are pushing for higher conventional biofuel volumes and stronger treatment of E15 and E85 demand growth. Soybean and renewable diesel interests are also seeking stronger biomass-based diesel targets amid continued expansion of crush capacity and SAF investment.
• Yet perhaps the largest unresolved issue hanging over the biofuels sector involves the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit. Treasury Department guidance remains incomplete, leaving ethanol producers, renewable diesel refiners, airlines, soybean processors and farm groups waiting for critical details on carbon intensity scoring, feedstock treatment, climate-smart agriculture eligibility and lifecycle accounting rules.
The uncertainty has slowed portions of the SAF investment pipeline, even as companies continue announcing new projects and partnerships. Multiple ethanol producers have warned that without clear Treasury guidance, financing decisions tied to carbon capture, low-carbon farming practices and SAF conversion investments remain difficult.
The debate also spans multiple agencies. Treasury controls tax implementation, the Department of Energy continues modeling lifecycle emissions pathways, while USDA is expected to play a major role in verifying climate-smart agricultural practices that could help determine eligibility for premium SAF-related tax incentives.
Agricultural groups increasingly argue that the lack of final 45Z clarity risks slowing rural investment just as the U.S. attempts to scale domestic SAF production and compete globally. Airlines and fuel developers, meanwhile, continue pressing for certainty on how corn ethanol, soybean oil, animal fats and emerging feedstocks will ultimately qualify under the program.
All of those issues now await Congress and the administration when Washington returns from recess — setting up what could become an unusually consequential summer for farm policy, energy markets and rural America.
— Trump, SCOTUS and high-stakes rulings ahead
Court prepares for major decisions on Trump agenda, birthright citizenship and Bayer pesticide liability fight
As the Supreme Court heads into the final stretch of its term, tensions between President Donald Trump and the justices are intensifying ahead of a series of major rulings that could reshape key elements of the administration’s agenda. According to a New York Times report, the White House has alternated between criticizing the court and courting individual justices as decisions loom on issues ranging from birthright citizenship to executive power and trade policy.
The report detailed how Vice President JD Vance recently attended a private dinner with Chief Justice John Roberts and former Roberts law clerks, underscoring what the Times described as an “awkward dance” between the administration and the court. Meanwhile, Trump has publicly blasted some justices, particularly after the court invalidated his sweeping tariffs earlier this year. Trump reportedly called some members of the court “fools and lap dogs” and criticized two of his own appointees for ruling against him.
The Supreme Court is expected to rule by late June or early July on Trump’s effort to end automatic birthright citizenship, one of the administration’s most closely watched legal fights. Trump has already increased pressure publicly, warning it would be “a disgrace” if the court allowed the current interpretation of birthright citizenship to stand.
Agriculture and pesticide industry groups are also closely watching another pending Supreme Court decision involving pesticide labeling and liability protections tied to Bayer’s Roundup herbicide products. The case could determine whether federal pesticide labeling approvals under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act pre-empt state-law failure-to-warn lawsuits. Farm organizations, crop protection companies and state agriculture groups argue the ruling could significantly affect pesticide availability, litigation exposure and future crop protection innovation.
The Bayer-linked case has become a major issue for the agriculture sector because an adverse ruling could increase legal pressure on pesticide manufacturers and potentially alter labeling requirements nationwide. The outcome may also influence ongoing congressional discussions surrounding federal pesticide label pre-emption protections in the broader “Farm Bill 2.0” debate.
Meanwhile, several justices have publicly defended judicial independence amid Trump’s criticisms. Justice Neil Gorsuch recently emphasized that his “loyalty is to the Constitution,” while Chief Justice Roberts warned earlier this year that increasingly harsh rhetoric directed at judges is “dangerous.”
— Texas races Tuesday intensify as Senate battle draws national spotlight
Cornyn/Paxton runoff has become a proxy fight over the future of the GOP, while Democrats rally behind James Talarico and down-ballot races — including Tom Sell’s congressional bid — gain added attention
The Texas political landscape is growing increasingly competitive as Republicans head into a high-stakes U.S. Senate runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, while Democrats attempt to capitalize on Republican infighting behind state Rep. James Talarico.
The Republican contest has evolved into one of the nation’s most closely watched intraparty battles. Cornyn is emphasizing experience, Senate seniority, and electability, warning Republicans that Paxton’s legal controversies could endanger a seat the GOP has long considered safe. Paxton, meanwhile, is running as a populist conservative closely aligned with President Donald Trump and the MAGA movement, arguing Cornyn represents an outdated Republican establishment. Trump’s endorsement of Paxton significantly reshaped the runoff dynamics and energized conservative grassroots activists.
The race has exposed broader tensions inside the Texas Republican Party between institutional conservatives and a more confrontational Trump-aligned wing. Paxton has leaned heavily on immigration enforcement, border security, election integrity, and cultural issues, while Cornyn has attempted to portray himself as a pragmatic conservative capable of maintaining GOP control of the seat in November. Republicans privately acknowledge the runoff has become expensive and divisive, with concerns that prolonged infighting could create an opening for Democrats.
On the Democratic side, Talarico has emerged as a surprisingly strong nominee after defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the primary. Talarico, a former teacher and progressive-leaning legislator with appeal among moderates and younger suburban voters, has focused heavily on education, affordability, healthcare, and democratic institutions. Democrats increasingly believe demographic changes and suburban shifts could make Texas more competitive statewide than in prior cycles.
Meanwhile, another closely watched Texas race involves longtime agriculture consultant and former congressional aide Tom Sell. Sell is running in the Republican primary for the open congressional seat being vacated by Rep. Jodey Arrington. Sell has emphasized his agriculture policy background, particularly his work on farm bills while serving former House Agriculture Committee Chairman Larry Combest (R-Tex.).
Sell’s campaign has attracted attention across agriculture and rural policy circles because of his deep ties to farm policy development and commodity issues. He has positioned himself as a candidate with both Washington policy expertise and strong roots in West Texas agriculture, highlighting issues such as crop insurance, trade policy, rural economic development, water policy, and federal farm program stability. Observers note that his longstanding relationships within agriculture organizations and conservative policy networks could help distinguish him in a crowded Republican field.
The congressional race also reflects broader changes underway in Texas politics following aggressive redistricting and shifting regional demographics. Several newly configured districts are becoming more competitive, forcing both parties to devote additional resources to races that historically received limited national attention.
— Trump health update Tuesday in Walter Reed visit
President Donald Trump’s latest medical and dental appointments are fueling renewed scrutiny over his health and age as the White House offers limited details ahead of a scheduled examination at Walter Reed
President Donald Trump is set to undergo another round of medical and dental evaluations at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center on Tuesday, drawing fresh attention to longstanding questions surrounding his health and transparency about his medical condition.
The White House described the visit as part of “routine annual dental and medical assessments,” but the appointment marks Trump’s third known dental-related visit this year and follows multiple doctor appointments in 2025, prompting speculation given the lack of detailed disclosures.
The scrutiny comes as Trump approaches his 80th birthday and faces mounting geopolitical and political pressures, including the ongoing Iran conflict and growing concerns among Republicans ahead of the midterm elections. Observers have noted visible signs of aging, including swelling in his legs, bruising on his hands, and discoloration on his neck. The White House previously acknowledged Trump has been diagnosed with a common vein condition and underwent advanced heart and abdominal imaging last year as a preventative measure.
Despite the attention, Trump and his aides continue to project confidence in his physical and cognitive health. White House spokesman Davis Ingle called Trump “the sharpest and most accessible President in American history,” while Trump himself has repeatedly touted his performance on cognitive tests and dismissed concerns tied to aging or family history of Alzheimer’s disease.
The report also highlights Trump’s long history of tightly controlling public information about his health, with critics arguing that presidents traditionally disclose more comprehensive medical information. Medical ethicists cited in the article suggested the White House is likely to reveal only selective details from the upcoming examination.
— Inflation test looms for Fed
Financial Times says upcoming U.S. inflation data could challenge the Federal Reserve as energy-driven price pressures complicate the outlook for rates under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh
The Financial Times reported that investors are closely watching this week’s core PCE inflation report — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — amid mounting concern that persistent price pressures tied to the Iran conflict and elevated energy costs could force the central bank into a more hawkish stance. Economists expect core PCE to rise 3.4% year over year, which would mark the highest reading since mid-2023.
The FT noted that the inflation backdrop is becoming increasingly difficult for the Fed as oil-related supply disruptions continue feeding through transportation, food, and consumer goods prices. Markets have begun pricing in the possibility of another rate hike later this year, even as President Donald Trump continues pressing for lower borrowing costs to support growth.
The issue carries added significance because Warsh, who recently took over as Fed chair, has generally been viewed as more supportive of rate cuts and balance-sheet reforms. However, stubborn inflation and rising Treasury yields are tightening financial conditions independently of Fed action. Reuters reported that benchmark Treasury yields recently climbed to their highest levels since early 2025 as investors reassessed inflation risks and long-term borrowing costs.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s April meeting minutes showed policymakers already concerned that Middle East tensions were pushing up inflation expectations and Treasury yields before the latest escalation in energy markets.
The FT said this week’s inflation data could therefore become a pivotal test for markets trying to determine whether the Fed will remain on hold, pivot back toward tightening, or continue signaling patience while hoping war-driven inflation pressures prove temporary.
| — KEY EVENTS |
— Washington events May 25-29
Federal Reserve speakers and inflation data highlight the shortened Washington workweek
Mon., May 25 — Memorial Day
• Federal offices and financial markets are closed for the Memorial Day holiday. Congress remains in recess for the week, with lawmakers continuing district and state work periods.
• Despite the holiday, global markets will continue monitoring developments tied to U.S./Iran ceasefire negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz reopening efforts. Energy traders will remain highly sensitive to any geopolitical headlines affecting crude oil shipments and refined fuel supplies.
Tue., May 26
• Presidential medical visit: President Trump visits Walter Reed National Military Medical Center for dental and medical evaluations and to meet with military personnel.
• U.S./Mexico trade & relations: Brookings Institution virtual discussion on the Sheinbaum administration and US-Mexico politics, security, and trade.
• Deterrence, Iran & U.S./ROK alliance: IISS discussion on strained deterrence, Iran, and the evolving character of war as it relates to the U.S./South Korea alliance.
• World Cup & diplomacy: Women’s Foreign Policy Group examines the diplomatic power of the World Cup.
• Congressional Review Act applications: Federalist Society virtual forum on emerging applications of the Congressional Review Act.
• Indo-Pacific transatlantic dialogue: CSIS and CSDS hold the 2026 Transatlantic Dialogue on the Indo-Pacific, covering regional security and strategy.
• AI economic opportunity: CNAS virtual discussion on who will profit from AI — examining investment, business models, and market dynamics.
• Security in the Pacific Islands: CSIS virtual report launch featuring insights from young Pacific leaders on regional security dynamics.
Wed., May 27
• Federal Reserve speakers: Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks on AI and the financial system; Vice Chair Philip Jefferson on global economic developments; Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan also speaks.
• Broadband deployment progress: Broadband Breakfast virtual discussion on the state of broadband deployment — progress, gaps, and early outcomes.
• Energy outlook: U.S. Energy Association forum on “Energizing Tomorrow,” covering energy solutions and the people driving them.
• AI and the future of work: U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation hosts its AI + Work Event on how artificial intelligence is transforming labor markets.
• Animal Generic Drug User Fee Act: FDA convenes an AGDUFA stakeholder meeting to gather input on the program’s reauthorization.
• Foreign policy in a rules-free world: Foreign Policy virtual forum on navigating international relations in a world without established norms.
• Colombia elections & U.S. policy: Quincy Institute virtual discussion on Colombia’s 2026 presidential elections and the implications for US foreign policy.
• Scaling AI across federal government: Government Executive Media Group forum on moving from AI experimentation to mission-ready, trusted federal AI systems.
• Immigrant-owned small businesses: CAPACD virtual discussion celebrating immigrant entrepreneurship and the challenges facing immigrant-owned small businesses.
• AI, digital assets & financial risk: Stanford SIEPR forum on innovation, resilience, and systemic risk as digital assets and AI reshape finance.
• World Cup economic opportunity: Atlantic Council discussion on the economic impact and opportunity the World Cup brings to North America.
Thur., May 28
• Federal Reserve speaker: New York Fed President John Williams scheduled to speak on monetary and economic conditions.
• Agriculture under USMCA: Washington International Trade Association virtual discussion on North American agricultural trade under the USMCA framework.
• Protecting Taiwan’s networks from China: CNAS virtual forum on defending Taiwan’s information and communication infrastructure against Chinese disruption efforts.
• European identity today: Peterson Institute virtual discussion on what it means to be “European” in the current geopolitical and cultural landscape.
• Israel/Lebanon negotiations, round 4: Washington Institute for Near East Policy forum on the fourth round of Israel/Lebanon talks and the Pentagon’s role in the process.
• Carbon credit reform: Brookings Institution discussion on regulatory and market reforms for project-based carbon credits.
• Rethinking federal place-based policy: Urban Institute virtual discussion on the future of geographically targeted federal investment programs.
Fri., May 29
• Federal Reserve — monetary policy abroad: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks on monetary policy in Iceland.
• Reagan National Economic Forum: Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation & Institute hosts its 2026 forum on national economic policy and priorities.
• U.S./Japan Arctic cooperation: Atlantic Council virtual discussion on a framework for U.S./Japan collaboration in the Arctic region.
• Data as a strategic government asset: Government Executive Media Group virtual forum on building a roadmap for using data strategically across federal agencies.
| — ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS |
— Weekly economic preview — key data and global policy
Mon., May 25
• Memorial Day. U.S. markets and gov’t offices are closed. The UK, Hong Kong and South Korea also have market holidays.
Tue., May 26
• Chicago Fed National Activity Index | S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller HPI | FHFA House Price Index | Consumer Confidence | Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey | Earnings: ONGC
Wed., May 27
• Richmond Fed Manufacturing | Earnings: Motor Oil
Thur., May 28
• Jobless Claims | Durable Goods Orders | GDP | Personal Income & Outlays | Wholesale Inventories | New Home Sales | KC Fed Manufacturing | Earnings: Orlen; SSE
Fri., May 29
• Chicago PMI | International Trade in Goods | Earnings: Enbridge; Mol
| — AG REPORTS |
— U.S. agriculture data calendar preview
Key USDA reports this week to guide markets on crops, livestock, and demand trends
Mon., May 25
• Memorial Day. U.S. markets and gov’t offices are closed.
Tue., May 26
• AMS. Export Inspections NASS: Crop Progress
Wed., May 27
• ERS: Livestock and Meat Domestic Data NASS: Broiler Hatchery
Thur., May 28
• ERS: Agricultural Exchange Rate Data Set | Outlook for US Agricultural Trade NASS: Peanut Stocks and Processing | Slaughter Weekly
Fri., May 29
• FAS: Export Sales NASS: Egg Products | Agricultural Prices | Peanut Prices
| — ENERGY REPORTS |
— Energy market preview: key reports and events to watch this week
Mon., May 25
• Memorial Day. U.S. markets and gov’t offices are closed.
Tue., May 26
• UBS Asian Investment Conference, Hong Kong; runs through Friday | Angola final loading program (July) | Brent July options expire| Holidays: Bangladesh; UAE; Kuwait; Guyana
Wed., May 27
• API US inventory report | Genscape ARA inventories | Holidays: Singapore; Malaysia; Indonesia; Kazakhstan; UAE
Thur., May 28
• EIA Petroleum Status Report | Weekly Ethanol Production | EIA Natural Gas Report | Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data | IEA launches World Energy Investment report | Main North Sea programs due (July) | Holidays: India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh; UAE
Fri., May 29
• Baker-Hughes Rig Count | ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil | CFTC Commitments of Traders | Brent July futures expire | Holidays: Indonesia; Azerbaijan; UAE; Pakistan
