Iran Inspection Deal Tied to U.S. Grain Exports, But Farmers Skeptical 

Save Our Bacon Act debate highlights divisions within the meat industry | New World screwworm cases continue to expand along Texas border

Link: Save Our Bacon Act Fight Intensifies as Senate Cracks
          Emerge — Marshall Withdrawal Reshapes the Battle Lines
Link: Iran Asset Release Could Create New Export Opportunity for U.S. Ag

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, June 22 
Video show is now on You Tube,Spotify & Apple
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, June 22 

TOP STORIES
 

— Iran inspection deal tied to U.S. grain exports: Nuclear inspections and controlled asset releases could reopen Iran as a buyer of U.S. corn, soybeans, wheat, and potentially rice, creating a rare link between diplomacy and agricultural trade.

— Iran soybean proposal faces skepticism as U.S. farmers question market reality: Producers and analysts argue Iran could provide incremental demand for U.S. soybeans but cannot come close to replacing China’s role in the global soybean market.

— Oil markets price in new Iran reality: Progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations and prospects for increased Iranian crude exports are removing geopolitical risk premiums from oil prices and easing supply concerns.

— New World screwworm cases expand along Texas border: USDA confirmed another screwworm case in Texas, keeping pressure on eradication efforts and maintaining concerns about livestock health and cross-border cattle movement.

— Save Our Bacon Act debate highlights meat industry divisions: The Meat Institute is not backing the legislation, reflecting a split between companies that have already invested in Prop 12 compliance and producers seeking federal intervention.
 

FINANCIAL MARKETS
 

— Equities today: Global stock markets weakened as investors weighed prospects for higher interest rates and questioned whether massive AI-related spending will generate sufficient returns. The Dow opened around 250 points lower. The Nasdaq is down around 2.4%.

— Equities yesterday: The Dow finished higher while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 declined, led by weakness in large-cap technology stocks.
 

AGRIBUSINESS
 

— Incobrasa expands U.S. soy processing footprint with major Illinois investment: The company’s new $250 million crush plant in Gilman, Illinois, adds significant domestic soybean demand and reinforces the industry’s shift toward value-added processing and biofuels.
 

AG MARKETS
 

— USDA daily export sale: USDA reported a 100,000-metric-ton corn sale to Mexico spanning the 2025/26 and 2026/27 marketing years.

— Grain markets stabilize overnight as traders weigh weather risks and global supply shifts: Corn and soybeans posted modest gains while wheat remained under pressure from harvest activity and competitive Black Sea supplies.

— World grain markets mixed as wheat holds firm and palm oil retreats: Delayed Indian monsoon rains and the start of Russia’s wheat crop tour are adding uncertainty to global grain and oilseed supply prospects.

— European heat raises concerns for wheat and corn production: Persistent heat and dryness in France, Germany, and Poland could reduce EU grain output and tighten global wheat and feed grain supplies.

— Ag markets June 22: Grain futures declined on favorable U.S. weather while feeder and live cattle extended gains on tight livestock supplies.
 

FARM POLICY
 

— Senate farm bill draft sidesteps SNAP fight: Chairman John Boozman’s proposal avoids several contentious issues, but Democrats are expected to challenge the omission of SNAP cost-share provisions during markup.

— DOJ targets USDA socially disadvantaged preferences: A Justice Department opinion could force USDA to redesign certain programs around race-neutral eligibility standards and influence future farm bill debates.
 

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Tuesday oil markets retreat as Iran supply returns to global trade: Expanded Iranian exports and improving Strait of Hormuz traffic continue to pressure crude oil prices lower.

— Monday oil market retreats as Iran diplomacy reduces supply fears: Diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran shifted market focus from supply disruption risks to expectations for recovering crude exports.

— SPR drawdown raises questions about U.S. energy security: Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories have fallen to their lowest level in four decades even as global supply conditions improve.
 

TRADE POLICY

— Greer’s India mission signals trade momentum: U.S.-India negotiations appear close to completion and could provide new market opportunities for American agricultural exports.

FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY

— Judge halts USDA soda restrictions in SNAP: A federal court ruled USDA exceeded its authority by approving state efforts to restrict SNAP purchases of soda and other products.

CONGRESS

— Senate appropriations delay signals more spending gridlock ahead: The postponement of key FY2027 spending markups compresses an already difficult appropriations schedule.

— House set to advance faster wildfire relief for farmers: Bipartisan legislation would accelerate USDA disaster payments and provide producers more time to complete wildfire recovery projects.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding threaten parts of the central U.S. while dangerous heat persists across the West and Southern Plains.

— Rain delays wheat harvest as heat looms for Corn Belt: Southern Plains rainfall is slowing wheat harvest while hotter weather next week could increase attention on Corn Belt moisture conditions.

— 2015 weather analog offers mixed signals for crops: Comparisons to 2015 suggest July rainfall will be the key determinant of whether 2026 follows a path toward strong yields despite early-season weather concerns.
 

—Equities today: Global equity markets moved lower as investors confronted two increasingly important themes: the prospect of tighter U.S. monetary policy and growing concerns about the scale of corporate spending tied to artificial intelligence. The combination has prompted a reassessment of risk across major asset classes, particularly within technology stocks that have been among the biggest beneficiaries of the AI investment boom.

The weakness was most evident in U.S. technology shares, where the Nasdaq on Monday posted a sharp decline led by selling in several large-cap growth names. Investors are beginning to question whether the enormous capital expenditures being directed toward AI infrastructure, data centers, chips, and cloud computing will generate returns quickly enough to justify current valuations. While AI remains one of the most powerful long-term growth themes in the market, rising borrowing costs make future earnings less valuable in today’s dollars, creating additional pressure on high-multiple technology companies.

The Dow opened around 250 points lower. The Nasdaq is down around 2.4%.

In Asia, Japan -3.5%. Hong Kong -1.8%. China -1.8%. India -1.2%.

In Europe, at midday, London -0.5%. Paris -0.8%. Frankfurt -1.2%.

Meanwhile, expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates elevated — or even consider additional tightening if inflation remains stubborn — have reduced investor appetite for risk. Markets had spent much of the year anticipating a more accommodative Fed, but resilient economic data and firm disinflation readings have complicated that outlook. Higher interest rates tend to strengthen the U.S. dollar, increase financing costs, and weigh on equity valuations, particularly for growth-oriented sectors.

Investors are now turning their attention to earnings reports from companies such as FedEx Corporation and Carnival Corporation & plc for clues about the underlying health of the economy. FedEx is widely viewed as a barometer of global trade and business activity, while Carnival offers insight into consumer spending trends and discretionary travel demand. Strong results could help ease concerns about economic momentum, but any signs of slowing demand would likely reinforce the market’s cautious tone.

The broader market challenge is that investors are simultaneously navigating uncertainty over monetary policy, elevated equity valuations, and the enormous capital commitments being made to AI development. As a result, even modest disappointments in earnings or economic data could trigger outsized market reactions.

For now, traders appear to be shifting from a growth-at-any-cost mindset toward a more disciplined focus on cash flow, profitability, and balance-sheet strength as the next phase of the market cycle unfolds.

—Equities yesterday: 

—Incobrasa expands U.S. soy processing footprint with major Illinois investment

New crushing capacity in the heart of Illinois soybean country underscores the growing importance of domestic processing and biofuels demand

The opening of a new $250 million soybean crushing facility by Incobrasa Industries in Gilman, Illinois, marks another major step in the ongoing transformation of the U.S. soybean industry. Located in Iroquois County about 90 miles south of Chicago, the plant sits in one of the nation’s most productive soybean-growing regions and strengthens Illinois’ role as a leading center for soybean processing and value-added agriculture.

Built adjacent to Incobrasa’s existing soybean processing and biodiesel complex, the new facility significantly expands the company’s crushing capacity and creates a major new demand center for soybean producers across Illinois and neighboring states. According to company officials, the plant will require approximately 300,000 bushels of soybeans per day and is capable of processing nearly 100 million bushels annually.

Speaking at the ribbon-cutting ceremony, Incobrasa Quality Control Manager Kerry Fogarty emphasized the project’s scale and importance to local agriculture. “Incobrasa’s new crush plant is the single largest extraction process in the country. Requiring 300,000 bushels per day, it will provide a stable market for 7,000 local family farms,” Fogarty said. The facility’s daily soybean needs underscore its potential to become one of the largest and most consistent buyers of soybeans in the region.

The investment reflects a broader shift underway throughout the U.S. oilseed sector. For decades, a significant share of the nation’s soybean crop was exported as whole beans, particularly to China. Today, growing demand for soybean oil from renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel producers is encouraging processors to expand domestic crushing capacity and capture more value within the United States.

Incobrasa Chief Executive Officer Aluizio Ribeiro has consistently argued that expanding domestic processing creates a stronger and more reliable market for U.S. farmers. “It’s important that we have a strong biofuels market and overall market for soybean oil in the U.S. so that we can guarantee a better price for U.S. soybean farmers,” Ribeiro said. His comments reflect the increasingly close relationship between agriculture and energy markets, as renewable fuel policies become a key driver of soybean demand.

For Midwest farmers, additional crushing capacity can strengthen local basis levels and increase competition for soybean supplies. Processing soybeans closer to where they are produced reduces transportation costs while allowing more of the crop’s value to remain in rural communities. Gilman’s location provides access to major soybean-producing regions, rail infrastructure, livestock feeding operations and growing biofuel markets, making it an ideal location for expansion.

The project also illustrates the industry’s confidence in future growth opportunities tied to renewable fuels. Ribeiro has indicated that continued policy support for biofuels could create additional opportunities for expansion. “If the state of Illinois and the federal government keep incentivizing biofuels, especially soybean oil-based biofuels, we should be able to keep growing,” he said.

For rural Illinois, the economic benefits extend beyond soybean processing. The project brings new jobs, additional tax revenue, expanded grain merchandising activity and increased economic activity throughout the region. It also strengthens domestic supply chains at a time when global trade flows remain vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions and shifting export demand.

Ultimately, the Gilman expansion represents more than a new soybean crush plant. It is another example of the U.S. agricultural sector moving further up the value chain by processing more commodities domestically rather than exporting them in raw form. As demand for renewable fuels and protein products continues to expand, facilities such as Incobrasa’s are likely to play an increasingly important role in supporting farm income, rural economic development and long-term soybean demand.

—USDA daily export sale: 100,000 MT of corn to Mexico —30,000 MT for 2025/26 and 70,000 MT for 2026/27.

—Grain markets stabilize overnight as traders weigh weather risks and global supply shifts

Corn and soybean futures post modest gains while wheat remains under pressure amid harvest progress and improving Black Sea competition

Grain futures were mixed overnight as the market attempted to stabilize following Monday’s broad-based weakness. Corn and soybean contracts posted modest gains, supported by bargain buying and emerging concerns over weather threats outside the United States, while wheat futures continued to drift lower as harvest pressure and ample global supplies weighed on sentiment.

July corn futures traded at $4.12½ per bushel, up 1 cent, while July soybeans gained 3¼ cents to $11.19. Soybean meal led the soy complex higher, rising $3.10 per ton to $302.90, suggesting renewed commercial interest after meal futures recently fell to five-month lows. In contrast, July soybean oil slipped 0.60 cents to 70.55 cents per pound, giving back a portion of Monday’s sharp advance. Wheat remained the weakest sector, with July Chicago SRW wheat down 1½ cents at $5.96 and July Kansas City HRW wheat losing 3 cents to $6.30½.

The modest rebound in corn and soybeans reflects a market caught between favorable U.S. growing conditions and increasing concerns about crop prospects elsewhere in the world. Traders continue to monitor the developing heat and dryness across portions of Europe (see related item below), where corn pollination is beginning under stressful conditions. Meanwhile, the delayed and uneven advance of the Indian monsoon is raising questions about grain and oilseed production prospects in South Asia. Those issues are providing underlying support but have yet to overcome expectations for another large U.S. harvest if current weather forecasts verify.

Wheat continues to face the greatest headwinds. U.S. winter wheat harvest activity is expanding despite weather delays in portions of the southern Plains, while Russian export offers remain highly competitive near $233 per metric ton FOB. The combination of ongoing Northern Hemisphere harvest pressure and expectations for large Black Sea supplies is limiting upside potential for wheat futures even as weather concerns emerge in Europe.

For now, grain markets appear to be entering a period where weather-driven volatility will compete with generally comfortable global supply expectations, leaving traders highly sensitive to any changes in crop forecasts during the critical pollination and grain-filling stages ahead.

—World grain markets mixed as wheat holds firm and palm oil retreats

Delayed Indian monsoon and Russian crop watch add new uncertainty to global supply outlook

World grain markets were mixed on June 23 as wheat values found modest support from emerging weather concerns in Asia and ongoing scrutiny of Black Sea production prospects, while vegetable oil markets softened amid weaker energy prices and improving global supply expectations. 

Paris milling wheat futures gained €0.50 per metric ton to €207.75/MT, equivalent to roughly $240/MT or about $6.53 per bushel in U.S. wheat terms. Russian July FOB wheat offers were unchanged at $233/MT, or approximately $6.34 per bushel, maintaining the Black Sea’s competitive position in global export markets.

The biggest developing story for grain traders is India’s monsoon. Rains have advanced only into central portions of the country and remain significantly behind normal, delaying planting of key summer crops. Large sections of northern India are still awaiting meaningful precipitation, raising concerns about corn, rice, soybean, pulse and oilseed acreage. If the delayed monsoon persists, India could face lower grain and oilseed production later this year, potentially increasing import demand for edible oils and feed grains. While USDA currently projects continued growth in Indian grain consumption, weather risks are becoming a larger market factor as the planting season progresses.

Attention is also turning to Russia as IKAR begins its annual winter wheat crop tour. With Russian wheat remaining among the cheapest export origins in the world, crop assessments over the next several weeks will be closely monitored by importers and traders. Current Russian export offers near $233/MT remain below equivalent European values and continue to anchor global wheat prices. Any indication of yield losses or lower-than-expected production during the tour could quickly tighten global export availability and support futures markets.

Vegetable oil markets were weaker, with Malaysian August palm oil futures falling 13 ringgits to 4,628 RM/MT. That equates to approximately $1,090/MT, or about 49.4 cents per pound in U.S. terms. The decline reflects easing crude oil prices and reduced concern over Middle East supply disruptions, although the delayed Indian monsoon could eventually provide support if edible oil imports rise later in the year. Global palm oil values remain historically elevated despite Tuesday’s setback.

Overall, the grain market remains caught between Northern Hemisphere harvest pressure and emerging weather concerns. Harvest progress in the United States, Europe and Russia continues to weigh on prices, but the combination of India’s delayed monsoon, tighter global grain stocks projections and uncertainty surrounding Black Sea production suggests downside potential may remain limited as traders enter the heart of the summer weather market.

—European heat raises fresh concerns for wheat and corn production

Crop losses in France, Germany and Poland could further tighten global grain supplies as exporters face shrinking wheat availability

Another week of intense heat and dryness across France, Germany, and Poland is increasing concerns about the size of this year’s European grain harvest, with corn expected to suffer the greatest impact. Much of the EU corn crop has entered pollination, the stage most vulnerable to heat and moisture stress, and producers are increasingly reporting deterioration in yield potential. 

Current estimates suggest EU corn yields could decline by 5% to 10%, reducing production by roughly 3 to 6 million metric tons from earlier expectations and leaving the crop near 52 to 55 million metric tons. Even at the lower end of those losses, Europe would face a meaningful reduction in feed grain supplies, likely increasing corn imports from Ukraine, Brazil, and potentially the United States later in the marketing year while supporting global feed grain prices.

Wheat losses are more difficult to quantify, but concern is growing as the crop moves through flowering, grain-fill, and ripening stages. Prolonged heat during these periods can accelerate maturity and reduce kernel weights, particularly in areas already experiencing moisture deficits. A modest 2.5% decline in EU wheat yields would lower production by just over 3 million metric tons to around 133 million metric tons. However, many producers believe losses closer to 5% are possible if meaningful rainfall fails to materialize soon, which would reduce output by nearly 7 million metric tons. While forecast temperatures are expected to moderate somewhat next week and scattered showers are anticipated, many analysts believe the rainfall will be too limited and uneven to fully reverse crop stress that has accumulated during June.

The implications extend far beyond Europe. USDA was already forecasting a 44-million-metric-ton decline in wheat production among the world’s major exporting nations compared to last year. If EU wheat production falls by 3 to 6 million metric tons, that exporter shortfall could increase to 47 to 50 million metric tons. Such a reduction would leave global wheat supplies increasingly dependent on production outcomes in Russia, North America, Australia, and Argentina. Any weather setbacks in those regions later this year would have a larger impact on world balances than normal.

For grain markets, the significance lies not only in the size of the potential losses but also in their location. France and Germany are among the European Union’s largest wheat exporters, while Europe remains a major consumer and importer of feed grains when domestic supplies tighten. Combined EU wheat and corn losses could easily reach 7 to 13 million metric tons if current weather patterns persist. That would tighten global grain inventories, strengthen import demand, and increase the likelihood that weather concerns remain a supportive factor for wheat and corn prices through the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere growing season.

—Ag markets Mon., June 22: grain and livestock markets retreat as favorable weather presses crops, while cattle extend rally

Ideal Midwest growing conditions weigh on corn, soybeans and wheat as feeders lead livestock complex higher

Agricultural markets finished mostly lower on June 22 as traders continued to focus on one dominant theme: favorable U.S. crop weather. Corn, soybean and wheat futures all closed near their daily lows as forecasts pointed to adequate moisture and generally non-threatening temperatures across much of the Corn Belt through early July. The absence of weather stress during a critical stage of crop development encouraged additional selling from funds and commercial traders, reinforcing the view that yield potential remains high for both corn and soybeans.

Corn futures led the grain weakness, with July corn falling 6 cents to $4.11 1/2. The market continues to struggle to find a bullish catalyst as widespread precipitation and moderate temperatures support expectations for a large U.S. crop.

Soybeans followed corn lower, with July beans dropping 7 cents to $11.15 3/4, while July soybean meal fell $1.50 to $299.80, marking a five-month low close. The meal market remains under pressure from expectations of ample soybean supplies and sluggish demand growth.

Soybean oil was the exception, rising 146 points to 71.15 cents as traders continued to position for stronger renewable diesel demand and tighter vegetable oil balances. Even so, strength in soybean oil was not enough to offset broader weakness across the soybean complex.

Wheat markets also retreated, with July Chicago SRW wheat falling 8 1/4 cents, July Kansas City HRW wheat losing 10 1/2 cents and September Minneapolis spring wheat declining 9 1/4 cents. The downturn appeared largely corrective after recent gains, but wheat also faced spillover pressure from weaker corn and soybean futures. While concerns remain regarding portions of Europe and the Black Sea region, traders were reluctant to extend rallies while U.S. weather remains largely favorable, and harvest activity expands.

Cotton futures posted a notable setback, with July cotton falling 84 points to 75.21 cents. The market encountered profit-taking after recent advances and faced additional pressure from lower crude oil prices, a firmer U.S. dollar and weaker equity markets. Cotton continues to trade within a broader demand-driven environment where macroeconomic signals and consumer spending trends remain important influences.

Livestock markets provided a contrast to the crop sector. August live cattle futures gained 72.5 cents to $247.35 and August feeder cattle surged $3.825 to $370.425. Both contracts reached six-week highs during the session before surrendering part of their gains into the close. The underlying trend remains supportive as historically tight cattle supplies continue to attract speculative and commercial buying interest. The feeder cattle market in particular remains underpinned by limited inventory availability and strong demand for replacement animals. Lean hog futures were comparatively quiet, with August hogs finishing unchanged at $96.725. The market saw brief short-covering support early in the day but remains technically vulnerable as a downward price trend continues to dominate chart patterns.

The broader market message remains clear: weather is currently the primary driver of crop futures, and forecasts continue to favor production. Until a weather threat emerges or export demand accelerates significantly, grain markets may struggle to sustain rallies. In contrast, livestock markets remain supported by fundamentally tight cattle supplies, creating a widening divergence between the crop and animal protein sectors as summer trading progresses.

Note: Price changes reflect the move from the June 18 close. “pts” = points (1.00 point = $0.0001 per pound for cotton; $0.01 per contract unit for soybean oil).

—Senate farm bill draft sidesteps SNAP fight, but battle likely ahead

Boozman proposal appears designed to keep the coalition together, yet Democrats may use markup to force debate over state SNAP cost burdens

Senate Ag Committee Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark.) is expected to unveil his version of a comprehensive farm bill package today (June 23), setting the stage for committee consideration during the Senate’s limited July and early August work period. Early reports suggest the proposal deliberately avoids several of the most politically divisive provisions that complicated House consideration, reflecting an effort to build a broader bipartisan coalition and improve the bill’s chances of advancing through the Senate.

Most notably, the draft reportedly excludes a delay in the implementation of increased state cost-sharing requirements for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), a priority sought by Senate Democrats. The omission is significant because the issue has become one of the most contentious debates surrounding nutrition policy. Democrats have argued that shifting a larger share of administrative and program costs to states could place substantial pressure on state budgets and potentially affect program administration. Republicans, meanwhile, have generally viewed the changes as a mechanism to improve accountability and encourage more efficient program management.

The decision to leave the SNAP cost-share issue out of the chairman’s mark also suggests Boozman may be attempting to keep the farm bill focused on areas where bipartisan agreement is more achievable. By avoiding controversial nutrition provisions, as well as leaving out fights over California’s Proposition 12 livestock standards, pesticide labeling preemption, and year-round E15 fuel sales, Senate Ag Committee leaders appear to be separating long-standing agricultural policy priorities from issues that could fracture support before the bill reaches the Senate floor.

That strategy, however, carries its own risks. Democrats are widely expected to offer amendments during committee markup aimed at addressing the SNAP cost-share concerns. The debate could become an early test of whether the committee can maintain bipartisan support for the broader package. If Democrats conclude that their concerns are not being addressed, support for the legislation could weaken, complicating both committee approval and eventual floor consideration.

The broader political calculation is that Senate leaders may prefer to move a package that can attract at least some Democratic support rather than repeat the more partisan path followed in the House. Yet nutrition programs account for the largest share of farm bill spending, meaning disagreements over SNAP remain difficult to avoid. As a result, the upcoming markup may reveal whether the Senate can forge a compromise that balances farm program priorities with nutrition policy concerns, or whether SNAP funding disputes will once again become the central obstacle to completing a long-overdue farm bill reauthorization.

For agricultural stakeholders, the absence of Proposition 12, pesticide labeling language, and E15 provisions is also noteworthy. While those issues remain priorities for various commodity, livestock, crop protection, and biofuel groups, their exclusion suggests Senate leadership is prioritizing passage over policy expansion. Whether that approach succeeds may depend largely on how the committee navigates the SNAP debate in the weeks ahead.

—DOJ targets USDA “socially disadvantaged” preferences

Constitutional ruling could reshape farm program delivery and future farm bill debates

The Department of Justice’s latest opinion declaring certain USDA preferences for “socially disadvantaged” farmers unconstitutional marks another significant step in the Trump administration’s broader effort to eliminate race- and sex-based federal programs. While the ruling directly affects a relatively narrow set of USDA conservation-planning fee waivers, its implications could extend far beyond those specific programs and influence how future farm policy is written, administered, and defended in court. Link to full opinion. 

At the center of the opinion is USDA’s longstanding definition of “socially disadvantaged” farmers and ranchers, a category that has historically included racial and ethnic minorities and women who were presumed to have faced systemic discrimination. For decades, that designation has been used throughout numerous USDA programs to provide targeted outreach, technical assistance, cost-share incentives, loan benefits, and conservation support. The Office of Legal Counsel concluded that conservation-planning provisions that automatically granted fee waivers based on race and sex classifications could not survive constitutional scrutiny because the government failed to demonstrate a sufficiently compelling justification for those distinctions.

The ruling continues a legal trend that has accelerated following recent Supreme Court decisions emphasizing a more stringent interpretation of equal-protection principles. Federal agencies increasingly face pressure to demonstrate that any race-conscious program is narrowly tailored to address specific, documented discrimination. Broad eligibility categories based solely on race, ethnicity, or sex have become increasingly vulnerable to legal challenges.

For agriculture, the practical impact may be less dramatic in the short term than the headline suggests. The Justice Department specifically noted that USDA can continue providing technical assistance, financial support, outreach, and conservation services through race-neutral mechanisms. Programs designed around economic hardship, beginning farmer status, limited-resource producers, geographic disadvantage, farm size, or documented barriers to participation may remain legally defensible if administered without explicit racial or gender preferences.

Nevertheless, the decision creates additional uncertainty for future farm bill negotiations. Many lawmakers and farm advocacy groups have supported targeted assistance programs on the grounds that minority and female producers historically faced barriers in accessing USDA services and credit programs. Opponents have argued that federal benefits should be distributed without regard to race or sex. The DOJ opinion strengthens the latter position and will likely encourage Congress to redesign future assistance programs around income, resource limitations, or other neutral criteria rather than demographic classifications.

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins immediately embraced the opinion, signaling that the department intends to align all Farm Production and Conservation programs with the administration’s interpretation of equal-treatment requirements. That suggests agencies will likely review a broader range of program rules and guidance documents to ensure they can withstand future constitutional challenges.

The political ramifications could be significant. Farm groups representing minority producers may argue that removing targeted preferences risks reversing progress made in expanding participation among historically underserved farmers. Supporters of the DOJ ruling, meanwhile, will contend that assistance programs should be available based on need and eligibility rather than race or sex. As Congress begins work on future farm legislation, the debate is likely to shift from whether underserved producers should receive assistance to how that assistance can be structured in a legally sustainable manner.

The opinion therefore represents more than a legal ruling on conservation-planning fees. It signals a broader shift in federal agricultural policy toward race-neutral program design and sets the stage for renewed battles over how USDA addresses historical inequities while complying with increasingly strict constitutional standards.

—Tuesday: oil markets retreat as Iran supply returns to global trade

Expanded Iranian exports and easing strait risks pressure crude prices

Brent crude futures fell to around $77 per barrel Tuesday, extending a sharp decline from the previous session and reaching their lowest level in nearly three months as traders increasingly priced in the possibility of additional Iranian oil reaching world markets. The selloff reflects a dramatic shift in market psychology from fears of supply disruption to expectations of expanding supply, following Washington’s decision to grant Iran a 60-day license allowing international oil sales. The move is being viewed by energy markets as one of the clearest signals yet that diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran are gaining traction, reducing the geopolitical risk premium that had been embedded in crude prices during recent weeks of heightened tensions.

The supply implications are significant. Iran has reportedly exported more than 30 million barrels of crude over the past week, while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to normalize after concerns that military conflict could threaten one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have also demonstrated their ability to utilize alternative export routes, helping reassure markets that Gulf oil supplies can continue reaching customers even if periodic disruptions occur in the region. The reopening of shipping lanes and improving vessel movements through Hormuz have removed one of the largest bullish factors supporting oil prices earlier this month.

For global energy consumers, including U.S. agriculture, lower crude prices are generally positive. Reduced energy costs can ease pressure on diesel, fertilizer production, transportation expenses, and broader inflation measures. The decline also comes at a time when global economic growth concerns remain present, with traders questioning whether demand can absorb additional barrels from Iran without creating a larger supply surplus.

Recent comments from industry officials suggesting global inventories may rebuild more quickly than expected have further reinforced the bearish tone. However, considerable uncertainty remains. Iranian media reports have contradicted Vice President JD Vance’s assertion that Tehran is prepared to allow international nuclear inspectors back into the country. That disagreement highlights the fragile nature of the ongoing negotiations and underscores that a comprehensive agreement remains far from certain. Any breakdown in talks, renewed sanctions enforcement, or military escalation could quickly reverse the current market sentiment and reintroduce a geopolitical premium into oil prices.

For now, the market appears focused on barrels rather than diplomacy. Traders are betting that additional Iranian exports, improving shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz, and the prospect of broader Gulf production increases will outweigh lingering political risks. Unless negotiations deteriorate significantly, crude markets may continue to test lower levels as participants reassess whether the world is moving from a perceived supply deficit toward a more adequately supplied oil market heading into the second half of the year.

—Monday: oil market retreats as Iran diplomacy reduces supply fears

Progress in U.S./Iran talks and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz shift market focus from geopolitical risk to recovering crude supplies

Oil prices posted a sharp decline Monday as traders increasingly concluded that the worst-case supply disruption scenarios tied to the U.S./Iran conflict are becoming less likely. Brent crude settled at $77.90 per barrel, down 3.3% on the day, while front-month West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $74.82. The selloff reflected a dramatic shift in market psychology from last week’s fears of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz to growing confidence that diplomatic negotiations are gaining traction and that Middle East oil flows will continue moving to global markets.

The market’s reaction was particularly notable because crude prices briefly surged above $82 per barrel earlier in the session after President Trump renewed threats of military action against Iran and reports surfaced that Tehran had again restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

However, those gains quickly evaporated as traders focused on comments from Vice President JD Vance indicating negotiations were progressing and confirming that the strategic waterway remained open. The price reversal highlights how sensitive oil markets remain to developments surrounding the ceasefire and ongoing diplomatic efforts.

A key bearish factor for crude prices was the announcement that the U.S. Treasury authorized Iranian oil sales through Aug. 21. That decision effectively signals the return of additional Iranian barrels to world markets at a time when supply concerns are already easing. While Iranian production and export infrastructure suffered disruptions during the conflict, the authorization creates a pathway for crude exports to gradually increase over the coming months. Combined with indications that major Gulf producers such as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq are prepared to offer additional volumes, traders are beginning to anticipate a more comfortable supply environment heading into the second half of the year.

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most important development for energy markets. The waterway handles roughly one-fifth of global oil trade, and fears of a prolonged disruption had fueled a significant geopolitical risk premium in crude prices. The successful transit of tankers through the strait over the weekend and into Monday provided tangible evidence that exports are normalizing. Although mine-clearing operations and heightened naval patrols continue, shipping companies appear increasingly willing to resume operations, reducing concerns about an immediate supply shock.

Even so, the oil market is not entirely out of danger. Analysts caution that restoring production, refining operations and export infrastructure across the region will take time. Infrastructure damage, logistical bottlenecks and refinery disruptions suggest that a full return to pre-war production levels is unlikely before the end of the year. As a result, while the geopolitical premium embedded in crude prices is shrinking, some risk premium is likely to remain until traders gain confidence that supply chains are fully restored.

Another factor supporting oil prices despite Monday’s decline is the historically tight inventory situation. The reported 9.05-million-barrel drawdown in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve underscores how heavily emergency reserves have been relied upon during the conflict. Global commercial inventories also remain relatively low by historical standards, meaning the market has less cushion than in previous geopolitical disruptions. That reality could limit the downside for crude prices even if diplomatic progress continues.

For agricultural markets, lower oil prices could ease concerns about rising fuel and fertilizer costs while reducing inflationary pressures throughout the supply chain. At the same time, a successful U.S.-Iran agreement that includes expanded agricultural trade could create new export opportunities for U.S. grain and oilseed producers. The market is increasingly shifting from a wartime mindset focused on supply interruptions toward an economic outlook centered on renewed trade flows and recovering energy supplies, a transition that was clearly reflected in Monday’s sharp decline in crude oil prices.

—SPR drawdown raises questions about U.S. energy security as global supply outlook improves

Strategic reserve falls to four-decade low even as industry leaders see signs of faster oil market normalization

The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) continues to shrink at a time when global energy markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East. Department of Energy data show crude oil inventories in the SPR fell to 331.2 million barrels as of June 19, down another 9 million barrels from the previous week and marking the lowest level since the reserve was being built in the mid-1980s. Total withdrawals during June have now reached 24.2 million barrels, underscoring the government’s continued reliance on emergency stocks to help stabilize petroleum markets.

The decline comes during a period of elevated geopolitical uncertainty but also improving supply expectations. While the SPR was originally designed to provide a buffer against severe supply disruptions, its diminished inventory level leaves policymakers with less flexibility should a major global outage occur. The current stockpile is less than half the levels maintained during much of the past two decades and well below the roughly 700-million-barrel peak reached in 2009.

Meanwhile, industry leaders are signaling that oil markets may be more resilient than many investors feared. American Petroleum Institute President Mike Sommers argued that the continued movement of Iranian crude into world markets is helping offset supply concerns. Although Iranian oil generally does not flow directly to the United States, those barrels still contribute to global availability and ease pressure on benchmark crude prices. His comments suggest the industry believes the market’s supply deficit could narrow more quickly than expected as production and exports normalize across the region.

A key issue remains the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global petroleum supplies transit. Sommers emphasized that market participants are watching not only loaded tankers leaving the Gulf but also empty vessels returning to the region. The movement of empty tankers is viewed as an important signal that production facilities remain operational, export infrastructure is recovering, and future crude shipments can continue uninterrupted. If both directions of tanker traffic continue to normalize, traders may gain confidence that the worst-case supply disruption scenarios are becoming less likely.

Another challenge for analysts is tracking actual oil flows. Sommers noted that increasing numbers of vessels are disabling transponders, making it more difficult to monitor shipments and accurately assess supply conditions. This opacity has added uncertainty to oil market forecasting and can amplify price volatility when geopolitical tensions rise.

For agricultural markets, energy traders, and policymakers, the combination of a historically depleted SPR and improving international supply conditions presents a complicated picture. The reserve’s decline highlights reduced emergency protection against future shocks, while expanding global crude flows could help cap oil prices and limit inflationary pressures. Whether policymakers eventually move to rebuild the SPR may depend on how quickly Middle East production recovers and whether crude prices retreat enough to make replenishment economically attractive. For now, the market appears increasingly focused on signs that global supply chains are healing faster than many anticipated, even as U.S. strategic inventories remain near their lowest levels in four decades.

—Greer’s India mission signals trade momentum as U.S. pushes to lock in strategic partnerships

India agreement could become the next major trade breakthrough following completion of the U.S./EU accord

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer heads to India this week at a critical stage in negotiations that could reshape trade flows between two of the world’s fastest-growing economic partners. The visit underscores the Trump administration’s broader strategy of securing bilateral agreements with key allies and emerging markets as it seeks to replace uncertainty surrounding its earlier tariff framework with negotiated trade arrangements that provide more durable market access.

India has repeatedly indicated that a final agreement is close, potentially taking effect as early as July. The proposed framework would significantly reduce U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from levels that had reached 50%, while India would lower barriers on a range of American industrial products and selected agricultural commodities. For U.S. agriculture, the negotiations are being closely watched because India has traditionally maintained some of the world’s highest agricultural tariffs, limiting opportunities for exporters of products such as corn, soy products, dairy, specialty crops, and value-added food products.

A key complication remains the legal uncertainty created by the Supreme Court decision earlier this year that overturned portions of the administration’s tariff regime under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. As Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal noted, the ruling effectively altered the foundation on which many trading partners were calculating concessions. Trade negotiations are fundamentally built around reciprocal advantages, and the removal of certain U.S. tariff authorities has forced both sides to revisit elements of the agreement to ensure the balance of benefits remains intact.

Despite that hurdle, both Washington and New Delhi appear motivated to reach a conclusion. Beyond trade, the agreement carries substantial geopolitical significance. The United States views India as a critical strategic counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific region, while India seeks expanded access to the U.S. market and greater certainty for exporters. The willingness of the administration to remove the tariff penalties tied to India’s purchases of Russian oil also suggests Washington is prioritizing long-term strategic alignment over narrower disputes.

For agricultural markets, the potential benefits could be meaningful. India’s large and growing middle class represents one of the most attractive long-term demand opportunities for global food suppliers. While immediate tariff reductions may focus on selected products rather than broad market liberalization, any opening of the Indian market could create new export opportunities for U.S. farmers at a time when the industry continues to seek diversification beyond traditional destinations such as China and Mexico.

Greer’s subsequent trip to Uzbekistan highlights another emerging element of U.S. trade policy: expanding commercial relationships in strategically important regions where China and Russia have traditionally exerted significant influence. While trade volumes remain relatively small, deeper engagement with Central Asian economies fits into a broader effort to strengthen U.S. economic ties across multiple regions.

With the European Parliament having approved the U.S./EU tariff agreement last week, attention is now shifting to implementation and to other pending negotiations, including the U.S./India trade pact.

—Judge halts USDA soda restrictions in SNAP, creating new uncertainty for MAHA food policy

Court ruling raises questions about federal authority to redefine eligible foods under nutrition programs

A federal judge has dealt a significant setback to the Trump administration’s effort to restrict the use of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits for the purchase of soda and other sugary beverages, ruling that USDA exceeded its legal authority when it approved state waivers designed to test such restrictions.

In a decision that could have far-reaching implications for nutrition policy, U.S. District Judge Amy Berman Jackson concluded that Congress — not USDA — has the authority to determine what qualifies as “food” under SNAP. The ruling vacates approvals granted by USDA to states including Iowa, Nebraska, West Virginia, Colorado, and Tennessee that sought to remove soft drinks and certain other products from SNAP eligibility through pilot programs. Jackson found that while Congress authorized demonstration projects within SNAP, it did not grant USDA the power to rewrite the statutory definition of food or exclude entire categories of products from the program.

The decision strikes at the heart of one of the most visible initiatives associated with the administration’s “Make America Healthy Again” campaign, championed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and supported by Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins. Supporters of the restrictions argued that taxpayer-funded nutrition assistance should not subsidize products linked to obesity, diabetes, and other chronic health conditions. Critics countered that the restrictions unfairly targeted low-income households and lacked clear congressional authorization.

The ruling is likely to intensify a broader policy debate that has been building in Washington and state capitals over whether SNAP should function strictly as an anti-hunger program or also serve as a tool to influence dietary choices. For years, lawmakers and public health advocates have proposed limiting purchases of sugary beverages, candy, and other highly processed foods, but Congress has repeatedly declined to amend SNAP eligibility standards. The court’s decision reinforces that history, suggesting that any major change in allowable purchases will likely require legislative action rather than administrative experimentation.

The immediate impact will be felt in the 23 states that had received USDA approval for similar food-restriction waivers. Unless the administration successfully appeals the decision, implementation of those restrictions could be delayed or halted altogether.

The ruling also creates legal uncertainty for future efforts by USDA to use waiver authority to reshape food purchasing behavior within federal nutrition programs.

Politically, the case highlights the growing tension between the administration’s public health objectives and longstanding statutory limits governing federal assistance programs. While supporters of the soda restrictions are expected to push Congress for explicit authority to restrict certain products, anti-hunger groups and legal advocates view the ruling as a reaffirmation that SNAP’s purpose is to provide broad food-purchasing flexibility rather than impose nutritional mandates through executive action.

The case could ultimately move to higher courts, setting up a potentially important test of administrative authority at a time when federal agencies across multiple sectors are facing increasing judicial scrutiny over the scope of their regulatory powers. For now, the decision represents a clear victory for SNAP recipients and advocacy groups while complicating one of the administration’s signature nutrition-policy initiatives.

—Senate appropriations delay signals more spending gridlock ahead

McConnell’s absence forces postponement of key FY 2027 funding bills, compressing an already challenging appropriations timeline

The Senate Appropriations Committee’s decision to postpone its June 25 markup of several Fiscal Year 2027 spending bills highlights how narrow Senate margins are increasingly affecting the appropriations process. While the official reason for the delay has not been publicly detailed, Capitol Hill sources indicate the hospitalization and absence of Senate Appropriations Committee member Mitch McConnell played a central role. With Republicans holding only a slim majority on the panel, the absence of a single GOP member would likely leave committee Republicans unable to advance the measures if Democrats voted in opposition.

The postponed markup included several significant spending bills, among them the Agriculture, Rural Development, and FDA appropriations measure, which traditionally serves as the annual vehicle for funding USDA operations, rural development programs, agricultural research, conservation efforts, food safety activities, and nutrition program administration. Also delayed were funding bills covering Military Construction and Veterans Affairs, Commerce-Justice-Science programs, and the Legislative Branch. Together, these measures represent a substantial portion of the federal government’s discretionary spending framework.

The delay is noteworthy because appropriators had been attempting to begin work on FY 2027 spending bills earlier than in many recent years. Congress has struggled repeatedly to complete appropriations on schedule, relying instead on continuing resolutions and omnibus packages. Pushing these markups beyond the July 4 recess effectively shortens the legislative runway available before the start of the fiscal year and increases pressure on lawmakers to move multiple bills simultaneously later this summer.

For agriculture stakeholders, the postponement likely does not immediately affect USDA operations or program funding, but it does delay the first public indication of Senate funding priorities for farm programs, rural infrastructure, agricultural research, conservation activities, and FDA oversight. Farm groups closely monitor these markups because appropriators often include policy directives and funding adjustments that can have meaningful impacts even outside of farm bill debates.

The timing is also significant given the broader congressional agenda. Lawmakers continue to face competing demands involving tax policy implementation, farm bill discussions, disaster assistance, and oversight of USDA programs. Every week lost in the appropriations calendar increases the likelihood that Congress will once again rely on temporary funding measures rather than completing all twelve appropriations bills through regular order.

Assuming the Senate leaves Washington for the Independence Day recess as scheduled, the next opportunity to resume committee consideration would likely come during the week of July 13. That leaves appropriators with less than three months before the October 1 start of FY 2027. While appropriations delays have become commonplace, the latest postponement underscores how even a single absence can alter the trajectory of the federal spending process in a closely divided Senate and raises fresh questions about whether Congress can avoid another funding showdown later this year.

—House set to advance faster wildfire relief for farmers

Bipartisan bill would accelerate USDA assistance payments and give producers more time to rebuild after devastating fires

The House is expected to vote today on legislation designed to speed federal disaster assistance to farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners recovering from wildfires, marking another effort by Congress to address growing concerns about the financial toll of increasingly severe fire seasons. 

The Emergency Conservation Program Improvement Act of 2025 (S 629) was introduced by Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) and co-sponsored by Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) and Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.). The measure cleared the Senate by unanimous consent in March and now awaits House consideration.

The legislation would make significant changes to USDA’s Emergency Conservation Program (ECP) and Emergency Forest Restoration Program (EFRP). Most notably, producers would be eligible to receive advance payments covering up to 75% of approved restoration costs before repair work is completed, rather than waiting for reimbursement after expenses are incurred. The bill also extends the deadline for using those funds from 60 days to 180 days, recognizing that labor shortages, supply-chain constraints, and permitting delays often make rapid recovery impossible following major wildfire events.

The measure addresses a long-standing complaint from agricultural producers in fire-prone regions. Under current rules, many farmers and ranchers must finance fence repairs, debris removal, water infrastructure restoration, and conservation structure replacement out of pocket before receiving federal assistance. For operations already suffering livestock losses, forage destruction, or damaged infrastructure, securing the necessary capital can be difficult. By providing larger advance payments, Congress is seeking to improve cash flow during the critical recovery period immediately following a disaster.

The bill also expands eligibility for assistance by clarifying that damages caused by certain non-natural wildfires and wildfires originating from federal actions can qualify for aid. That provision reflects growing concerns in Western states where prescribed burns, utility-related fires, and other human-caused incidents have increasingly affected agricultural lands.

The broad bipartisan support behind the legislation highlights how wildfire policy has become less of a regional issue and more of a national agricultural concern. While western states remain the most vulnerable, drought conditions, high temperatures, and changing weather patterns have increased wildfire risks across portions of the Great Plains and Southwest. For lawmakers from both parties, accelerating disaster assistance has emerged as one of the least controversial ways to help producers adapt to those risks.

If approved by the House, the legislation would provide USDA with additional flexibility to deliver aid more quickly and could become a model for future disaster-assistance reforms. For producers facing rising wildfire threats, the measure represents a shift away from a reimbursement-based approach and toward a more proactive disaster recovery system designed to keep farms and ranches operating while rebuilding efforts are underway.

— NWS outlook: Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding continue across portions of the Central U.S…. …Dangerous Heat Persists in the West and Southern Plains.

—Rain delays wheat harvest as heat looms for Corn and Soybean Belt

Southern Plains soaked now, Midwest faces a sharp shift to summer stress next week

A widespread storm system is expected to deliver 1 to more than 2 inches of rain across much of the southern United States and the hard red winter wheat belt through Thursday, creating a significant short-term challenge for wheat harvest operations while delaying the final stages of soybean planting. The heaviest impacts will be felt in Kansas, where winter wheat harvest is slightly more than halfway complete and fieldwork is expected to slow considerably. Harvest activity in Colorado and Nebraska, where cutting is just beginning, could be brought to a near standstill until fields dry out.

For wheat producers, the timing is unfavorable. While the moisture will replenish soil profiles ahead of fall planting and benefit some summer crops, prolonged rainfall raises concerns about grain quality, test weights, and disease pressure in mature wheat. Kansas remains the focal point because it is the nation’s largest hard red winter wheat producer, and any extended interruption could slow grain movement into commercial channels during a critical period for harvest logistics. The same rainfall will also delay completion of soybean planting in Kansas, where roughly 9% of the crop remains unseeded, pushing some final planting activity into next week.

The broader Corn Belt presents a more mixed picture. Heavy rainfall is expected to spread eastward into portions of the southern Corn Belt late this week, improving moisture supplies in some areas. However, Iowa—arguably the most important corn-producing state—will remain notably dry through the next five days. Looking ahead, weather patterns are expected to shift toward a western U.S. trough and eastern ridge configuration during the 6–10-day period, increasing thunderstorm activity across the northern Plains and western Corn Belt. Beyond that, forecasters see a classic “ridge-rider” pattern developing during the 11–15-day window, with storm systems tracking along the northern edge of expanding heat.

Temperatures are expected to remain below normal through the end of this week, supporting generally stable crop-condition ratings nationwide. The more important market development may occur from June 29 through July 3, when a significant heat dome is projected to expand across the central United States. High temperatures could reach 95 to 105 degrees across the southern Plains and 88 to 94 degrees throughout much of the Corn Belt. Because most corn and soybean crops remain in relatively early vegetative stages, the heat alone is not yet a major threat. However, if Iowa and other dry areas fail to receive meaningful rainfall before the hotter pattern arrives, traders could begin shifting attention from favorable early-season conditions toward emerging moisture stress concerns as the market enters the critical July weather period.

—The 2015 echo: what the comparison year actually delivered

Drought analogs and a historic El Niño signal both point back nine years — but the outcome that year wasn’t the disaster some are bracing for

The 2015 comparison is showing up in more than one place this season, and it’s worth separating the two threads making that case. Some weather forecasters have flagged 2015 as one of its top analog years for 2026, alongside 2023 and 2009 — years identified by similarity in atmospheric and ocean-temperature patterns. Dryness and drought at the end of March covered almost 70% of the central U.S., a larger share than in any of those three analog years at the same point in the season. That’s actually the uncomfortable part of the comparison: Midwest dryness or drought was running at roughly 46% in 2015 versus about 53% in 2026 going into April, meaning this year started out drier than the year it’s being likened to, not the same. 

The El Niño angle is the other half of the case. Separate seasonal-outlook commentary has tied 2026 to 2015 through ENSO strength rather than drought coverage. Forecasters have assigned a high probability to El Niño conditions developing this summer, with some models projecting values comparable to the 1982, 1997, and 2015 events. The notable historical wrinkle here cuts against the doom-and-gloom framing: the three most recent high-magnitude El Niño events — 1997, 2015, and 2023 — were each followed by record U.S. corn yields, even though research has not identified a consistent relationship between ENSO intensity and Corn Belt summer weather outcomes.

So, the El Niño-based analog argues for optimism, while the drought-coverage analog argues for caution. They’re not the same case, and conflating them overstates the certainty either one offers.

What 2015 actually produced. For all the stress that year carried — a wet, flood-prone spring across parts of the eastern Corn Belt that delayed planting and drowned out bottomland acres in Illinois, Missouri, and Indiana — the final numbers held up better than the spring conditions suggested they would. U.S. soybean yield came in at a then-record 48.0 bushels per acre. Corn finished at 168.4 bushels per acre, off the prior year’s record of 171.0 but still among the strongest yields on record at the time. The lesson embedded in that outcome, and the one weather desks are implicitly leaning on when they invoke 2015, is that a rough start to the season — wet or dry — doesn’t lock in a poor finish if July and August deliver timely moisture during pollination and fill. (The math would put the corn yield at 183.6 bu. this year based on 2015; trend is 183; soybean yield would be 54.2 based on 2015.)

The takeaway for the next several weeks. Both analog arguments converge on the same operative variable: rainfall timing in July. The drought-coverage comparison says 2026 needs a “just in time” turn to even match 2015’s performance, while the El Niño comparison says the odds, historically, have favored a strong outcome in comparably classified years. Neither is a forecast but together they frame why this season’s outcome is still genuinely undetermined heading into the next few Crop Progress reports, with the June 30 Acreage report adding the next hard data point to the picture.