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TUESDAY, AUGUST 11, 2026   |   SPECIAL REPORT & ANALYSIS

WEATHER & MARKETS  |  JULY HEAT RECORD

July Sets U.S. Heat Record as Hot Nights Raise Economic, Farm Risks
 

Lower 48 averages 76.9°F as heat raises crop, livestock and energy costs
 

Analysis  ·  August 11, 2026

The contiguous U.S. recorded its hottest month ever in July, with the average temperature across the Lower 48 reaching 76.9°F — 3.3°F above the 20th-century average, according to NOAA. The reading narrowly surpassed July 1936 and July 2012 in NOAA’s 132-year record dating to 1895. The distinction is important: Alaska was unusually cool, so the record applies to the contiguous U.S., rather than all 50 states.

Figure 1. Average July temperature in the contiguous U.S., 1895–2026. July 2026’s 76.9°F edged the Dust Bowl benchmark of July 1936 and the 2012 drought year. Source: NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance.

A RECORD BUILT AT NIGHT

But the most important feature of the July heat may not have been the daytime temperatures. Average overnight lows reached 64.2°F, 3.7°F above normal and the warmest nighttime average for any month on record. That shattered the previous record for monthly minimum temperatures by 0.7°F. Daytime highs averaged 89.5°F — exceptionally warm but ranking only sixth highest — showing that persistently warm nights were what pushed the monthly average into record territory.

Table 1. July 2026 by the numbers, contiguous U.S. *Departure from the 20th-century (1901–2000) average. Source: NOAA/NCEI.

Figure 2. Average July overnight low, contiguous U.S., 1895–2026. The 64.2°F reading was the warmest monthly minimum for any month in 132 years of records. Source: NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance.

That distinction has significant economic and agricultural implications. Nights normally provide a recovery period for people, livestock and crops after daytime heat. When temperatures remain elevated around the clock, air conditioners run longer, electricity consumption rises, outdoor workers receive less relief and livestock have fewer hours to dissipate accumulated body heat. AP noted that nighttime temperatures are especially important for both people and agriculture because they determine how effectively organisms recover from daytime heat stress.

CROPS: HEAT HELPS, THEN HURTS

For agriculture, the July record is more complicated than simply equating hotter temperatures with lower yields. Crop damage depends heavily on timing, soil moisture and the severity of individual heat episodes. Corn and soybeans require substantial heat to develop, and adequate rainfall can offset part of the stress. But USDA research shows that temperatures above roughly 86°F increasingly move from beneficial growing-degree accumulation into potentially damaging extreme-heat exposure, particularly during reproductive development and grain filling.

The record-warm nights deserve particular attention as corn and soybeans move through grain filling. Plants continue to respire overnight, consuming some of the carbohydrates accumulated through daytime photosynthesis. Persistently high nighttime temperatures can raise respiration and leave less stored energy available for grain production. USDA research has also documented negative effects from high nighttime temperatures on soybean physiology and yield. That does not mean July’s national temperature record can be translated directly into a specific yield loss, but it adds another reason final yields could vary considerably even in fields that maintained adequate moisture.

LIVESTOCK AND THE WIDER ECONOMY

Livestock producers face a more immediate cost. USDA’s Economic Research Service says heat stress can reduce feed intake, weight gain, milk production and reproductive performance. Producers can counter those effects with shade, ventilation, sprinklers and other cooling systems, but those measures increase electricity, water and capital costs. Persistent warm nights are particularly troublesome because cattle have less opportunity to shed body heat before the next afternoon’s temperature peak.

The heat also carries a broader economic price. Businesses absorb higher cooling expenses, utilities must meet stronger peak power demand, construction and other outdoor work becomes less productive, and households face larger electricity bills. Similar dynamics are already affecting power markets overseas: extreme heat in Europe this summer has simultaneously increased air-conditioning demand while constraining some generating capacity, demonstrating how prolonged heat can become both an inflation and growth issue rather than simply a weather story.

COAST-TO-COAST HEAT

NOAA said above-average temperatures covered every state in the Lower 48 during July, with 13 states recording one of their five hottest Julys. Wyoming had its hottest July — and hottest month of any kind — on record, averaging 5.1°F above normal. Meanwhile, the nation overall received below-normal precipitation, even as localized areas experienced destructive flash flooding.

Figure 3. July 2026 statewide average temperature, departure from the 20th-century (1901–2000) average. Labeled states recorded one of their five hottest Julys in 132 years. Source: NOAA/NCEI.

Table 2. The 13 states with a top-five July in 2026. *Departure from the 20th-century (1901–2000) average; the 5.1°F Wyoming figure cited in the text is relative to more recent 1991–2020 normals. Source: NOAA/NCEI.

BOTTOM LINE

Bottom line: July’s record does not by itself determine crop yields or economic performance. But the combination of unusually high daytime temperatures and unprecedented nighttime warmth increases cumulative stress across agriculture, energy, labor and household budgets. For grain markets, the key question now shifts from July’s record temperature to whether August provides enough moisture and nighttime cooling during the final stages of corn and soybean grain filling — or extends the heat burden into harvest.

Sources: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Climate at a Glance (national and statewide data through July 2026); USDA Economic Research Service; USDA research on heat effects in row crops and livestock; Associated Press; Bloomberg.

AG POLICY & MARKETS DAILY   |   JULY HEAT RECORD — TUESDAY, AUGUST 11, 2026

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