Oil Eases, but Diesel Pain Persists as Iran War Stalls

Another key Sunday opening for grains | Week ahead highlights

Link: Week Ahead: The House Gets Four Days, Monday Gets Three
         Decisions, and Friday Gets the Jobs Number
Link: Ag Markets Review: Black Sea Risk Ignites Grains as Policy
         Shakes Livestock Markets
Link: Trump Beef Quota’s 25% Discount Likely Tied to Import Market, Not
         Domestic 90CL
Link: Warsh Gives Markets More Than “Nothing New” at Jackson Hole
Link: Rotterdam Turns To U.S. Soybean Meal As South American
         Premiums Surge
 

Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives podcast coming later today

UP FRONT

■  TOP STORIES

— Grain bulls face fresh weekend risk as Black Sea war hits Danube route: Grain markets enter Sunday night with bullish momentum but heightened volatility as fresh Russian strikes near Izmail add to already severe Black Sea and Danube export constraints, while Monday’s EPA decision looms over soybeans and soybean oil.

— Week ahead: key points: Monday brings major EPA biofuel, USDA meat-processing and beef-import policy developments, while Friday’s U.S. jobs report, China soybean demand and continued Black Sea shipping disruptions will drive markets through the week.

— Oil eases, but diesel pain persists as Iran war stalls: WTI ended near $83 while U.S. diesel remains around $5.60 per gallon, underscoring how restricted Hormuz traffic and tight refined-product supplies continue to hit agriculture and transportation even as crude prices retreat.

■  FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities Friday and weekly change: U.S. stocks slipped Friday, but the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 all still posted gains for the week.

— Global markets brace for jobs data as long-term yields stay elevated: High energy costs, heavy corporate borrowing and persistent fiscal deficits are keeping long-term rates elevated, putting Friday’s U.S. employment report at the center of the global market outlook.

■  AG MARKETS

— Ag markets Friday and weekly change: Corn, soybeans, soybean products and wheat posted strong weekly gains, while cattle futures suffered another sharp weekly decline and lean hogs finished higher.

■  WEATHER

— NWS outlook: A prolonged late-summer heat wave is spreading across the central and southern Plains toward the Midwest and Southeast, threatening late soybean fill, livestock and already-dry crop areas while widespread Corn Belt rainfall remains limited.

— Weather & Market Scorecard: The Ridge Takes the Belt: The weather outlook has turned more supportive for soybeans and HRW wheat as heat and drought intensify across the Plains, western Corn Belt and Delta, while eastern Corn Belt corn is increasingly past its most vulnerable stage.

■  TOP STORIES

—Grain bulls face fresh weekend risk as Black Sea war hits Danube route

Friday’s breakout meets Izmail strikes, EPA risk and a firmer dollar

Grain markets are closed, but the fundamental backdrop for tonight’s reopening has become more bullish — and more dangerous — since Friday’s close. The biggest new development is another Russian attack on Ukraine’s critical Danube export corridor. Ukrainian authorities said an overnight strike into Saturday damaged transport infrastructure in the Izmail district and set eight food-cargo trucks ablaze; the Kyiv Post reported five trucks loaded with grain were destroyed and three others damaged.

That does not by itself remove major volumes of grain from world supply. But it matters because the market is already pricing a transportation problem rather than a production problem. Ukraine’s Black Sea export capacity is severely constrained, the Danube backup route is congested, and Russia’s own export system has also been disrupted. The weekend attack therefore adds another layer of risk just as wheat futures enter Sunday night technically extended but fundamentally supported.
 

Friday’s Aug. 28 settlements were December corn at $5.36 1/2, up 3 cents; November soybeans at $12.88, up 20 cents; December soybean meal at $348.90, up $8.00; December soybean oil at 71.06 cents, up 255 points; December SRW wheat at $7.84, up 23 1/4 cents; and December HRW wheat at $8.44 1/4, up 22 1/4 cents.

The weekly gains were even more striking: December corn gained 28 cents, November soybeans 48 1/2 cents, December meal $23.10 and December soybean oil 148 points. Corn and soybeans reached new contract highs, while wheat continued the most explosive move in the complex.
 

Wheat still holds the match. Wheat remains the market most likely to set the tone tonight. The weekend attack near Izmail is important precisely because Ukraine has been forced to lean more heavily on its Danube corridor as normal Black Sea movements have been disrupted.

Reuters reported last week that as many as 70 vessels were queued near the Sulina Canal, with just two to three ships per day able to pass through. Ukraine exported only about 539,000 metric tons of grain from Aug. 1-21 compared with 1.73 million tons during the comparable period last year. Vessel delays can cost as much as $8,000 per day.

The military backdrop also worsened over the weekend. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Sunday that Russia launched nearly 2,000 strike drones, more than 1,600 aerial bombs and 31 missiles against Ukraine during the past week. Not all were directed at grain infrastructure, but the scale of the campaign reinforces the central wheat market concern: Ukraine’s export routes remain exposed to repeated disruption.

Russia’s own grain exports are constrained as well. SovEcon has most recently cut its estimate of Russian August wheat exports to 1.9 million metric tons, down from an earlier 2.2-million-ton estimate, as Black Sea and Sea of Azov logistics remain impaired. That would be dramatically below normal August movement.

There is wheat in the Black Sea region. The problem is getting it reliably onto vessels and into importing countries. World buyers therefore are paying an increasing premium for execution and delivery certainty rather than simply reacting to crop-size estimates.

December SRW wheat’s $7.84 Friday close leaves $8.00 directly in sight, while December HRW at $8.44 1/4 is already knocking on the door of $8.50. After Chicago wheat gained roughly 85 cents last week, violent profit-taking is increasingly possible.

But tonight’s first few hours could answer an important question. If wheat absorbs profit taking and holds most of Friday’s gains despite extremely stretched charts, it would be powerful evidence that this rally is being driven by physical logistics concerns rather than merely short covering. A sharp gap lower, by contrast, would suggest traders believe enough Black Sea risk has already been discounted.

Corn bulls have momentum — but less margin for error. Corn’s chart remains bullish, although the rally is considerably more mature after December futures climbed to $5.36 1/2. Technicians note identify resistance at $5.38 and then $5.42 1/2, with support around $5.28 1/2.

That creates a fairly clean Sunday-night test. A sustained push through $5.42 1/2 would suggest managed money remains willing to chase momentum even as harvest approaches. A retreat through roughly $5.28 would be the first stronger warning that the market is shifting from routine profit taking into a deeper correction.

Fundamentally, corn is benefiting from several overlapping issues: doubts about USDA’s yield assumptions following field observations this month, late-season U.S. weather concerns, wheat’s sharp rally and the possibility of additional Chinese feed grain demand.

China is particularly worth watching. Reuters reported that extreme heat and excessive rain have damaged corn, soybean and cotton areas since mid-July, potentially increasing Chinese feed grain imports. U.S. sorghum shipments to China totaled 2.98 million metric tons during January-July, nearly four times the year-earlier level.

For corn, the next bullish confirmation would be China broadening its U.S. buying beyond soybeans and sorghum. Until that happens, Chinese crop problems remain supportive potential rather than confirmed corn demand.

Soybeans have two markets to trade: China and EPA. Soybeans may have the most complicated setup because traders enter the week balancing very real export demand against an unusually large policy event risk. USDA on Friday announced another 182,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to China and 226,000 tons to unknown destinations for 2026-27 delivery. Private exporters also sold 100,000 tons of soybean meal each to Germany and the Netherlands. Those sales helped justify November soybeans’ $12.88 close rather than leaving the rally dependent entirely on technical momentum. Continued Chinese buying would provide an important floor underneath futures if profit-taking emerges.

But the bigger wild card for the soybean complex Monday is EPA. 

Reuters reported that the Trump administration is considering roughly doubling small refinery exemptions from about 990 million RIN credits to as much as 1.8 billion, while officials also have discussed increasing 2027 biofuel quotas by roughly 500 million gallons to offset at least some of the lost demand. No final decision had been made as of the latest reporting.

Because EPA’s decision has been expected by the end of August, Monday, Aug. 31 becomes the practical deadline traders will be watching, although EPA has not publicly guaranteed a specific announcement time.

For soybean oil, the headline number of waivers is only half the story. The key will be how much exempted demand is ultimately restored and into which renewable fuel categories. A large waiver package with vague or delayed reallocation would be bearish. Large exemptions coupled with credible, enforceable replacement volumes could produce a much more neutral — or even bullish — reaction.

That uncertainty is magnified by Friday’s move. December soybean oil finished at 71.06 cents after jumping 255 points, meaning a substantial amount of optimistic policy expectation may already be embedded in prices.
 

What Monday’s EPA Decision Puts at Stake

Weather keeps soybean risk alive. The latest government outlooks reinforce the late-season weather concern. The National Weather Service said Sunday morning that dangerous heat is expected from the central and southern Plains eastward into portions of the Midwest through late week, while the Climate Prediction Center continues to flag hot, dry conditions and rapid-onset drought risk across portions of the Central and Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley. (See the Weather section for details on the outlook and market impacts.)

The weather threat is no longer equally important for corn and soybeans. Much of the corn crop is past its most vulnerable reproductive stages. Soybeans, however, can still lose yield through reduced seed size and accelerated maturity where soil moisture is inadequate.

That means weather risk is gradually rotating from corn toward soybeans, another reason November beans may prove more resilient than the charts alone would suggest.

Warsh and the dollar add a macro headwind. The outside market environment is less friendly than it was earlier last week. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech pushed traders toward higher odds of another rate increase. Reuters reported that the probability of a September hike jumped from roughly 35% before the speech to around 56%-58% afterward. The Dollar Index climbed to about 99.7, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.728%. Link to our special report on Warsh’s remarks.

A persistently stronger dollar would work against U.S. agricultural export competitiveness and becomes more important if the grain rally continues extending to new highs.

Crude oil is providing another mild headwind to soybean oil. WTI settled Friday at $83.40 per barrel, down more than 4% for the week, as traders reacted to improving — though still highly irregular — oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and speculation about additional supply.

Normally, softer crude would weaken the economic pull from renewable diesel and other biofuels. For the next several sessions, however, EPA policy is likely to matter far more to soybean oil than a few dollars of movement in crude.

What to watch tonight. The first major test arrives at 7:00 p.m. CDT.

Wheat will provide the clearest reading on whether the Black Sea risk premium is still expanding after Saturday’s Izmail-area attack. A strong opening that holds would likely pull corn along with it.

For corn and soybeans, the more revealing signal may be what happens if prices initially trade lower. Last week, traders repeatedly bought corrections. If that pattern continues, it would indicate the market still has underlying demand for length despite overbought technical conditions.

Monday then brings the EPA wildcard, potential USDA daily export-sale announcements and the afternoon Crop Progress report.

Another substantial Chinese soybean purchase would strengthen the demand side of the soybean rally. A market-friendly EPA package could send soybean oil sharply higher again. Conversely, a large waiver announcement without convincing reallocation, combined with a pause in Chinese buying, could provide the catalyst for the first serious soybean correction in several sessions.

Market bottom line: The grain bull market enters Sunday night with momentum intact, but the risk/reward has clearly changed. Corn, soybeans and especially wheat are no longer cheap technically. All three markets are capable of sharp corrections after last week’s surge. Yet there is also more fundamental support than there was a week ago. Black Sea and Danube export disruptions are worsening rather than disappearing. China continues buying U.S. soybeans. Chinese crop weather is creating additional feed-grain uncertainty. U.S. late-season heat remains a soybean concern. And EPA is preparing a decision with potentially major consequences for soybean oil and biofuel demand. The most bullish outcome tonight would not necessarily be another explosive gap higher. It would be a market that can absorb profit-taking, hold Friday’s breakout levels and attract fresh buying on weakness. If that happens — particularly in wheat after the weekend attack near Izmail — it would suggest the rally is evolving from a momentum trade into a broader repricing of supply-chain and policy risk.

— Week ahead: key points (link to Week Ahead article and link to Ag Markets Weekly Review for details). 

• Monday is the policy day: EPA refinery exemptions, USDA’s small meat processor initiative and publication of the new beef import proclamation all land Aug. 31. 
• EPA could move the soy complex: Markets will focus less on the headline exemption volume than on how much waived biofuel demand EPA reallocates. A large exemption package with only 70% reallocation would be particularly negative for soybean oil. 
• USDA targets meatpacking concentration: Secretary Brooke Rollins is expected to announce steps involving interstate meat sales, small-processor funding, regulatory relief, inspection modernization and labeling. The near-term impact on slaughter capacity is likely limited. 
• Beef imports start Tuesday: The proclamation opens 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free lean beef trimmings in three tranches, with Brazil and Paraguay the practical beneficiaries. 
• Congress gets only four days: The House returns Monday and votes Tuesday on the Senate-passed continuing resolution. It needs a two-thirds majority under suspension of the rules; passage would fund the government through Dec. 11. 
• Little movement expected on farm policy: The Senate remains out until Sept. 14, leaving the farm bill, $12 billion farm-aid reconciliation package and $11.1 billion ag supplemental effectively stalled this week. 
• Friday’s jobs report is the macro centerpiece: August payrolls arrive at 8:30 a.m. ET Sept. 4, the final major labor report before the Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting. Consensus centers around roughly 45,000-58,000 jobs, with unemployment potentially rising to 4.2%. 
• Fed rate odds are in play: A stronger jobs report would reinforce expectations for a September rate increase and support the dollar; a soft report would likely reduce those odds and be friendlier for U.S. agricultural exports. 
• USDA crop and crush data matter: Crop Progress comes Monday; grain and oilseed crush reports Tuesday will provide the first hard look at crush economics after EPA’s biofuel decision. 
• Farm Progress Show runs Tuesday-Thursday in Boone, Iowa: Expect both the administration and farm groups to use the event to react to Monday’s EPA and USDA announcements. 
• China soybean demand gets another test Wednesday: Sinograin will auction only 68,000 metric tons, sharply less than recent offerings. Strong clearance would signal continued crusher demand; weak interest would suggest nearby needs are covered. 
• Black Sea remains wheat’s biggest risk: Turkey is trying to broker a safe-navigation mechanism, but there is no agreement, corridor or implementation date yet. Meanwhile, vessel availability — not simply higher freight costs — is becoming the bigger constraint on Black Sea grain trade. 
• Canada retaliation largely spares major U.S. crops: Ottawa’s Sept. 8 counter-tariff list excludes ethanol, corn, soybeans, wheat, beef and pork, while dairy products take the largest agricultural hit. 
• U.S./China talks remain uncertain: No formal negotiating round is scheduled ahead of the proposed Sept. 24 Trump/Xi summit — and Beijing still has not officially confirmed the Sept. 24 date. 
• Energy calendar is lighter: Watch August tanker-tracking data, weekly EIA petroleum numbers and signs of how much Iranian crude reached China; OPEC+ does not meet until Sunday, Sept. 6. 

—Oil eases, but diesel pain persists as Iran war stalls
WTI ends at $83.40; U.S. diesel near $5.60 as Hormuz remains restricted

Oil prices have backed away from their recent highs, but the retreat in crude is not translating nearly as quickly into relief for U.S. diesel users. That divergence is becoming one of the more important economic consequences of the six-month U.S./Iran war.

West Texas Intermediate crude closed Friday at $83.40 per barrel, down 13 cents Friday and 4.2% for the week. Brent settled at $89.31, down 39 cents Friday and 5.4% for the week. Traders marked crude lower partly on increased oil movements from the Gulf and speculation that Iran, Oman and other intermediaries could eventually produce a workable arrangement for more shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

That puts crude considerably below the panic levels reached earlier in the war. Brent briefly exceeded $120 per barrel in April, compared with an average of roughly $90 so far in 2026. But the apparent calm in crude obscures continuing stress in refined fuels. Reuters notes that diesel has risen considerably more than crude because of constrained middle-distillate supplies, lost Gulf exports and disruptions at Russian refineries.

At the pump, AAA’s national average Sunday morning is $4.0787 per gallon for regular gasoline and $5.6035 for diesel. Gasoline has actually edged lower from $4.0986 a week ago and is almost unchanged from the $4.0981 average a month ago. Diesel, however, was $5.3393 a month ago and just $3.7037 a year ago.

The Energy Information Administration’s latest weekly survey tells the same story. For the week of Aug. 24, regular gasoline averaged $4.085 per gallon, up 3.6 cents for the week, while on-highway diesel jumped 19.8 cents to $5.652. EIA’s diesel average was nearly $2 per gallon above its year-earlier level.

Diesel is now the bigger economic problem. That distinction matters enormously for agriculture and the broader economy. Gasoline is the price consumers notice most visibly, but diesel permeates the cost structure of trucking, railroads, harvesting, construction, manufacturing and food distribution.

The crude market is increasingly pricing the possibility that enough oil can work around the Hormuz disruption to prevent an outright physical shortage. The refined-products system does not have the same flexibility. Reuters reported that middle-distillate markets remain particularly tight and that diesel has suffered disproportionately from reduced Gulf exports and Russian refinery outages.

That means WTI falling into the low-$80s does not necessarily imply a rapid return toward normal diesel prices. Refinery margins, product inventories and the location of available supply matter as much as the headline crude price.

For farmers, the timing is especially uncomfortable as harvest approaches. Elevated diesel directly raises fieldwork and grain-hauling costs and indirectly raises fertilizer, freight and merchandising expenses.

U.S./Iran war shifts from airstrikes toward economic warfare. Militarily, the conflict has entered a comparatively quieter phase, but it is far from resolved. Reuters describes the six-month war as increasingly resembling a costly stalemate, with Washington shifting emphasis from airstrikes toward sanctions, financial pressure and its naval blockade. Active U.S./Iran hostilities have largely subsided in recent weeks, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio was reported to have told allies Washington did not expect new strikes for now.

President Donald Trump’s administration has instead launched what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calls its “Economic D-Day” campaign against Iran. Washington is threatening secondary sanctions against countries and institutions continuing to finance or trade with Tehran. It has already moved against Egypt’s Banque Misr over alleged Iranian financial links, although it has so far stopped short of aggressively penalizing major Iranian trading partners such as China and India.

The pressure is clearly hurting. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says the country’s imports and exports have fallen nearly 35%, while Iranian inflation reached 66% last month. Yet Tehran is giving no indication that it is ready to capitulate.

Indeed, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a fresh message Sunday urging Gulf Muslim governments to unite against what he called their “real enemy.” Tehran has previously struck U.S. military facilities and infrastructure in Gulf states during the conflict.

Hormuz remains the market’s pressure point. The critical question for energy markets remains the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments moved through the waterway. Traffic remains severely restricted. Reuters reported that only five commodity vessels passed through on Aug. 25, compared with a 10-day average of 15.

Iran and Oman are negotiating a temporary shipping corridor, and Iran says it is preparing conditions under which normal traffic could resume. Tehran’s demands include an end to U.S. military action and the blockade of Iranian ports, sanctions relief and compensation. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said Friday that restrictions would remain until U.S. actions against Iran stop and unspecified commitments are implemented.

President Pezeshkian on Saturday called for reviving the June 17 interim U.S./Iran agreement, which briefly provided sanctions relief and permitted Iranian oil sales before collapsing over disagreements that included Hormuz. Qatar has also stepped up mediation.

Meanwhile, the United States is going in the opposite direction economically. Bessent is preparing to use this week’s G20 finance meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, to push major economies to cut business ties with Iran, making sanctions enforcement another potential market catalyst.

Market outlook: crude has a diplomatic discount — diesel does not. The roughly $83 WTI/$89 Brent market is effectively assigning some probability to greater Hormuz traffic without requiring a comprehensive peace agreement. Saudi Arabia, Iraq and other exporters have also become better at routing oil around the disruption. That explains why crude can fall even while the war continues.

But a genuine Hormuz reopening could knock several dollars quickly out of crude because today’s prices still contain a geopolitical premium. Conversely, a breakdown in the Oman/Qatar mediation, renewed attacks on shipping or tougher U.S. secondary sanctions against Chinese and Indian purchasers could rapidly put $90-plus WTI and $100-plus Brent back into play.

For the U.S. economy, however, diesel may be the more important number to watch than crude. Gasoline around $4.08 is painful but has stabilized. Diesel near $5.60 remains extraordinarily expensive and embedded in the cost of producing and transporting virtually everything.

The energy market therefore is signaling something more complicated than simply “oil prices are falling.” Crude supply fears have eased somewhat; the refined-fuel shock has not. And until Hormuz moves substantially closer to normal operations, that distinction is likely to persist.

■  FINANCIAL MARKETS

—Equities Friday and weekly change: 

—Global markets brace for jobs data as long-term yields stay elevated

Energy costs, heavy corporate borrowing and fiscal deficits keep bond markets on edge as investors assess whether resilient growth will delay rate relief

Global markets enter September with long-term interest rates still elevated, reflecting a combination of high energy prices, heavy AI-related corporate debt issuance, persistent government budget deficits and continued evidence that major economies remain resilient.

That backdrop puts economic data — particularly the U.S. labor market — at the center of the coming week. Federal Reserve officials increasingly characterize the U.S. economy as operating near full employment, making Friday’s BLS Employment Situation report especially important for expectations about the next move in monetary policy.

Markets will also digest U.S. ISM manufacturing and services surveys, Eurozone inflation and unemployment figures, China’s first major batch of August economic data and a heavy calendar of Japanese indicators. Second-quarter GDP reports are due from Brazil, India and Australia, while central banks in Canada and New Zealand will make policy decisions.

The broader question for markets is whether incoming data show enough cooling in growth and employment to pull long-term yields lower. If economic activity remains firm while energy prices and government borrowing stay elevated, bond markets may continue to demand higher yields even if central banks become more inclined to ease short-term rates.

The U.S. August employment report on Friday will be the week’s marquee economic release. Economists expect payrolls to increase by about 45,000 jobs, following an unexpected decline of 23,000 in July. The unemployment rate is forecast to edge up to 4.2% from 4.1%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.2% month over month, accelerating from July’s 0.1% gain.

The employment figures carry added importance because of the tension between a labor market that appears close to full employment and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve eventually will need to provide additional monetary accommodation. A stronger-than-expected jobs report could reinforce the argument that the Fed has little urgency to cut rates and could place renewed upward pressure on Treasury yields. A notably weak report would strengthen the case for easing.

Earlier in the week, the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs are expected to show continued expansion. Investors will also examine the JOLTS report, where job openings are forecast to rise slightly to 7.39 million in July from 7.36 million in June.

Other U.S. releases include the ADP employment report, July trade balance, factory orders and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, along with appearances by Fed officials including Governors Michael Barr and Christopher Waller, will be scrutinized for signals about how policymakers are balancing employment, inflation and financial conditions.

Corporate earnings will provide another test of investor enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence and technology spending, with results expected from companies including Broadcom, Dell, Palo Alto Networks and Snowflake. The scale of AI-related capital spending has become increasingly relevant to the bond market because companies are issuing substantial amounts of debt to finance data centers, computing infrastructure and related investments.

In Canada, the Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% on Wednesday. Canadian employment, trade and Ivey PMI figures are also due, along with S&P Global business surveys.

Mexico will release consumer and business confidence data, while Brazil reports second-quarter GDP, industrial production, its trade balance and S&P Global PMI figures.

The market implication is that bond yields remain the critical transmission mechanism across asset classes. Persistent strength in employment and economic activity could keep long-term rates high even as investors anticipate eventual central-bank easing. Conversely, clear evidence of labor-market deterioration could shift attention rapidly from inflation and fiscal concerns toward the risk of a sharper economic slowdown.

■  AG MARKETS

—Ag markets Friday and weekly change:Link to weekly review article

■  WEATHER

— NWS outlook: The most important development for agriculture is heat, not rain: WPC is flagging an intense, long-duration late-summer heat wave building over the central and southern Plains and spreading toward the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast this week, with highs well into the 90s and 100s and high humidity producing widespread Major-to-Extreme HeatRisk — a stress factor for late corn and soybean grain fill and for livestock across the southern Plains.

On the precipitation side, monsoonal moisture remains the headline, driving showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over the Southwest and Rockies through Monday; the Intermountain West and Four Corners carry today’s Slight excessive-rainfall risk, with flash flooding possible in burn scars, canyons, and urban areas. Marginal excessive-rain risks brush the Northern Plains, the Great Lakes-to-Mid-Atlantic corridor, and the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorms cross the Northern High Plains and Northern Plains into early Monday, with additional storms riding a warm front through the Great Lakes and Northeast into Tuesday. A quasi-stationary front keeps scattered to organized storms going from the Delta and Gulf Coast into the Southeast through Tuesday morning — welcome moisture for parts of the Delta, less so for harvest logistics. The central Corn Belt sits largely between systems today, with the northern fringe catching storm activity.

—Weather & Market Scorecard: The Ridge Takes the Belt

■  REFERENCE LINKS TO KEY TOPICS

Index to links of special reports & other items of note