On/Off Optimism Continues on U.S./Iran Deal

Cattle on Feed report today | Warsh takes the helm at Fed | Argentina to cut wheat export tax, mulls lowering soybean export levy | Impact of Jones Act waiver | USDA daily export sales

Link: Trump Administration Faces Growing Pressure to Remove
         Moroccan Fertilizer Duties
Link: Deere Holds 2026 Outlook Steady Despite Weak
         Large Ag Market
Link: Rollins, Beef Tariffs, & Real Fight Inside Trump Trade Policy

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, May 16
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, May 16

TOP STORIES
 

— Holiday schedule: Memorial Day closures to alter U.S. trading and government operations: Bond markets close early today; U.S. financial markets and federal offices close Monday for Memorial Day.

— Hormuz toll fight emerges as central hurdle in U.S./Iran talks: Rubio signals real but fragile diplomatic progress while the administration increasingly treats Strait of Hormuz access as a non-negotiable economic and geopolitical issue.

— Supreme Court weighs high-stakes Roundup liability fight: Justices are considering whether federal pesticide law shields Bayer from state-level glyphosate lawsuits, with major implications for agriculture and litigation nationwide.

— USDA regulatory pipeline expands as poultry rule delay and OBBBA changes advance: A broad slate of rules covering poultry contracting, farm programs, disaster aid, and SNAP are advancing through OMB review.

— Brazil scrambles to avoid EU beef ban: Brazil is racing to provide antimicrobial compliance guarantees before a Sept. 3 deadline that could block its beef, poultry, and egg exports to the EU.

— NCGA warns of deepening farm profitability crisis as input costs surge: Corn growers face losses of up to $100 per acre as weak prices combine with high fertilizer, diesel, and input costs.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today: U.S. futures little changed overnight; Asian and European markets mostly higher as investors weigh earnings and Iran diplomacy hopes.

— Equities yesterday: Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 posted modest gains on May 21.

— Warsh takes helm at Fed in rare White House ceremony: Markets are watching for signals on rate cuts and regulatory shifts as Kevin Warsh is sworn in as Fed chair in a historically notable White House ceremony.

— Walmart signals growing financial stress among lower-income consumers: Despite an earnings beat, Walmart shares fell sharply on weak guidance and data showing lower-income shoppers under mounting financial pressure.

AG MARKETS

— USDA daily export sales:• 493,700 MT corn to Mexico; • 110,000 MT Corn to unknown destinations ; • 252,000 MT soybean cake and meal to unknown destinations 
— Argentina signals new push to ease export taxes on grains and industry: President Milei announces a wheat export tax cut effective June and hints at future soybean levy reductions as Argentina seeks to boost farm competitiveness.

— Cattle futures slip ahead of USDA report: Traders brace for bearish placements data as Plains drought drives feedlot inventories higher; feeder cattle hit daily limits Thursday.

— Cotton AWP eases: The Adjusted World Price for cotton falls to 68.68 cents per pound, snapping a 10-week streak of gains.

— Brazil cotton exports push toward seasonal record amid robust global demand: April shipments hit a monthly record and cumulative exports for the marketing year are nearly matching last season’s full-year total.

— Agriculture markets yesterday: Corn, soybeans, wheat, and cattle all posted losses on May 21.

FERTILIZER
 

— Rollins pushes fertilizer reshoring agenda: USDA Secretary Rollins calls for rebuilding domestic fertilizer manufacturing capacity, framing import dependence as a national security concern.

FARM POLICY

— Senate GOP weighs SNAP cost-share delay to unlock farm bill path: Senate Republicans are discussing postponing a 2027 SNAP cost-sharing requirement as bipartisan farm bill negotiations hinge on softening the nutrition provisions enacted in OBBBA.

PERSONNEL

— Mexico names new ambassador as security tensions with U.S. intensify: Finance specialist Roberto Lazzeri is approved as Mexico’s next Washington ambassador as bilateral disputes over security, sovereignty, and USMCA loom.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Friday: Oil jumps on Iran nuclear, Hormuz tensions: Brent crude nears $104 a barrel after reports of Iran hardening its nuclear posture and exploring Hormuz tolls, even as diplomacy continues.

— Thursday: Oil markets reverse lower as Iran tensions, economic fears collide: Brent and WTI settle at two-week lows after a volatile session balancing Middle East escalation against weak global economic data.

STATE OF AG: FLORIDA

— Florida’s fields under fire: drought, freeze, and flames push the state’s agricultural sector to the brink: A historic drought, a damaging February freeze, and a severe wildfire season are combining to deliver one of Florida agriculture’s worst multi-disaster stretches in memory.

MEAT & MEAT INDUSTRY

— Cargill lockout intensifies debate over meatpacker wages and industry concentration: Cargill has locked out roughly 1,700 Colorado workers after they rejected a wage offer, escalating tensions over pay, inflation, and beef industry consolidation.

FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY

— EPA rolls back refrigerant rules, arguing move will ease food costs: The Trump administration is rolling back Biden-era HFC restrictions, projecting $2.4 billion in savings for food supply chain operators while drawing sharp criticism from environmental groups.

TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS

— Trucking costs climb as diesel prices surge and driver availability tightens: Flatbed, refrigerated, and dry-van rates are up 36–44% from a year ago as fuel costs rise and potential CDL restrictions on noncitizen drivers threaten to tighten the labor pool.

— Extended Jones Act waiver exposes structural gaps in U.S. coastal shipping: The administration’s waiver through Aug. 16 is functioning as the broadest test of domestic maritime law in decades, revealing constrained Jones Act capacity and significant pent-up demand for coastal energy and fertilizer shipments.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Flash flooding risk from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast; severe storms possible on the southern High Plains; wet Memorial Day weekend expected in the East.

— Drier Corn Belt trend emerges, but flooded Southeast still faces delays: The 15-day outlook improves modestly for parts of the Midwest, but saturated soils and excessive moisture continue to delay fieldwork across the Southeast and Mid-South.
 

—Equities today: U.S. equity futures were little changed overnight following a relatively quiet news cycle, as investors weighed solid corporate earnings against ongoing optimism surrounding a potential U.S./Iran ceasefire agreement. There was no meaningful progress reported overnight on the diplomatic front, but markets continue to price in expectations that Washington and Tehran could eventually reach a deal in the near term.

Corporate earnings have remained a key driver behind the recent equity rally, with several overnight reports reinforcing positive sentiment. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak at 10:00 a.m. ET. Market focus throughout the day will remain heavily tied to geopolitical developments. Any tangible signs of progress toward a U.S./Iran ceasefire agreement could add further downside pressure to oil prices while providing an additional boost to equities.

In Asia, Japan +2.7%. Hong Kong +0.9%. China +0.9%. India +0.3%.
 

In Europe, at midday, London +0.4%. Paris +0.4%. Frankfurt +0.5%.

—Equities yesterday: 

—Warsh takes helm at Fed in rare White House ceremony

Markets brace for potential shift toward faster rate cuts, regulatory changes and closer White House/Fed alignment

A major transition at the Federal Reserve is set to unfold Friday as President Donald Trump is expected to swear in former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as chair of the Federal Reserve during a White House ceremony — a highly symbolic event that underscores the administration’s desire for a closer working relationship with the central bank.

The ceremony itself is historically notable. A Fed chair has not taken the oath of office at the White House since former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s 1987 swearing-in under President Ronald Reagan. The optics matter because they reinforce what markets already believe: the Trump administration wants a more publicly aligned and growth-oriented Federal Reserve after years of tension with former Chair Jerome Powell over interest rates and inflation policy.

Warsh’s elevation is being closely watched across equity, bond, currency and commodity markets because investors view him as more pragmatic and potentially more receptive to rate cuts than Powell, especially if economic growth slows or labor markets weaken later this year. Markets are also focused on whether Warsh could support a broader deregulatory agenda for banks and financial institutions.

Meanwhile, investors do not necessarily view Warsh as a traditional dove. During and after the 2008 financial crisis, Warsh often emphasized inflation credibility and financial stability risks. That history has led some analysts to caution against assuming an aggressive easing cycle simply because Trump has repeatedly pushed for lower rates.

The immediate market reaction may depend less on the ceremony itself and more on any comments Warsh makes regarding inflation, labor markets, tariffs and energy-driven price pressures tied to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz concerns. Traders remain highly sensitive to any indication that the new Fed chair could tolerate above-target inflation for longer in order to support economic growth.

The timing is also significant. The Federal Reserve is entering a period of heightened uncertainty as policymakers weigh the inflationary impact of tariffs, rising transportation and energy costs, and resilient consumer spending against signs of stress in lower-income households and manufacturing-sensitive sectors.

Bond markets could initially interpret Warsh’s appointment as mildly bullish for growth and equities if investors conclude the Fed may move toward earlier or deeper rate cuts. That could pressure Treasury yields lower at the short end of the curve while supporting interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as housing, regional banks and small-cap stocks.

However, some macro investors are warning that a visibly closer relationship between the White House and Fed could eventually raise questions about central bank independence. If markets begin to believe monetary policy is becoming more politically influenced, longer-dated Treasury yields could face upward pressure over time due to inflation-risk concerns.

For agricultural and commodity markets, Warsh’s leadership could carry important implications as well. Lower rates and a weaker dollar would generally support export competitiveness for U.S. grains, oilseeds and energy products. Meanwhile, any shift toward easier monetary policy during a period of elevated geopolitical risk could also reinforce broader commodity inflation trends.

Investors will now closely watch upcoming speeches, FOMC meetings and staffing decisions for clues about how aggressively Warsh intends to reshape the Fed’s policy direction, communications strategy and regulatory posture.

—Walmart signals growing financial stress among lower-income consumers

Weak guidance overshadows earnings beat as executives point to budget pressures and changing fuel buying habits

Shares of Walmart fell sharply despite the retail giant posting stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings, as investors focused instead on weaker full-year guidance and growing signs of strain among lower-income consumers.

The stock dropped 7.3% after company executives warned that spending patterns are becoming increasingly bifurcated across income groups. Walmart Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said higher-income consumers continue to spend confidently across a broad range of discretionary categories, while lower-income households are showing far more caution and, in some cases, signs of financial distress.

One metric cited by Rainey drew particular attention from analysts and economists: the amount of gasoline customers purchase at Walmart fuel stations. He noted that the average fill-up dropped below 10 gallons for the first time since 2022, something the company views as a significant indicator of household financial pressure.

Retail analysts often watch fuel purchasing behavior closely because it can provide a real-time snapshot of consumer liquidity. Smaller fuel purchases can indicate consumers are managing cash flow week-to-week rather than filling tanks completely. The trend also suggests that many households are attempting to stretch paychecks amid elevated living costs, higher borrowing rates, and persistent inflation in necessities such as housing, utilities, insurance, and food.

The Walmart comments reinforce broader concerns that the U.S. consumer economy is becoming increasingly uneven. Higher-income households continue benefiting from rising asset values, stronger wage growth in professional sectors, and relatively healthy balance sheets. Meanwhile, lower-income consumers remain more exposed to elevated credit-card debt, rising delinquency rates, and the cumulative impact of inflation over the past several years.

The company’s guidance disappointed Wall Street because Walmart has traditionally been viewed as a defensive retailer that benefits when consumers trade down from higher-priced stores during periods of economic stress. Investors had hoped continued grocery traffic gains and market share expansion would offset softer discretionary spending. Instead, management’s cautious tone suggested pressure on core shoppers may intensify later this year.

The fuel comments are especially notable because gasoline demand patterns often provide an early signal of broader economic weakness. Consumers buying smaller amounts of fuel may also reduce discretionary travel, dining, entertainment, and impulse purchases inside stores. That dynamic can create ripple effects across the retail, restaurant, and service sectors.

Meanwhile, Walmart’s results may add to the growing debate over whether the U.S. economy is experiencing a “two-track” consumer environment. Many economists argue aggregate spending data has remained resilient largely because affluent households continue spending aggressively, masking deteriorating conditions among working-class consumers.

The company’s remarks could also influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Signs of mounting financial stress among lower-income households may strengthen arguments from officials concerned that higher interest rates are increasingly weighing on consumer demand and credit conditions, even as inflation risks tied to energy markets and tariffs remain elevated.

—USDA daily export sales:

•493,700 MT corn to Mexico —225,000 MT for 20252/26 and 268,700 MT for 2026/27

•110,000 MT Corn to unknown destinations — 50,000 MT for 2025/26 and 60,000 MT for 2026/27

• 252,000 MT soybean cake and meal to unknown destinations—117,000 MT for 2025/26 and 135,000 MT for 2026/27

—Argentina signals new push to ease export taxes on grains and industry

President Javier Milei cuts wheat export levy beginning in June and hints at future soybean tax relief as Argentina seeks to boost competitiveness, exports and investment

Argentine President Javier Milei announced that Argentina will lower its wheat export tax to 5.5% beginning in June, down from the current 7.5%, while also signaling the government could trim soybean export taxes next year if fiscal conditions allow.

Speaking at the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Milei said soybean export levies could be reduced by 0.25 to 0.50 percentage points starting in January. Argentina currently imposes a 24% export tax on soybeans, among the highest agricultural export levies in the world.

The move underscores Milei’s broader strategy of gradually dismantling Argentina’s long-standing export tax system, which farmers and exporters argue has discouraged production, investment and export competitiveness for years. Argentina relies heavily on export taxes to generate government revenue, particularly from grains and oilseeds, making any reductions politically and fiscally sensitive.

The wheat tax reduction is expected to improve margins for Argentine producers ahead of the country’s winter wheat planting season. Analysts say the lower levy could encourage expanded acreage after several years of weather-related production setbacks and volatile government policy.

Argentina remains one of the world’s largest wheat and soybean exporters, making any policy shifts closely watched by global grain markets. Lower export taxes could improve Argentine competitiveness against rival exporters such as Brazil, the United States and Russia, particularly in wheat and soybean meal markets.

Meanwhile, the soybean tax discussion is especially significant because Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean meal and soybean oil. Producers and exporters have long argued the steep soybean levy suppresses farm profitability, discourages sales and limits investment in the crushing sector.

The comments also come as Milei attempts to balance pro-market reforms with the country’s difficult fiscal realities. His administration has prioritized reducing inflation, stabilizing Argentina’s currency reserves and achieving a budget surplus. Export taxes remain a major source of government income, which limits how aggressively the administration can cut them in the near term.

Milei additionally said new tax cuts for Argentina’s automotive and petrochemical sectors will be announced in coming days, signaling the government is broadening its deregulatory and pro-business agenda beyond agriculture.

The announcement by Milei came on the heels of the grain exchange increasing its soybean production forecast for the country to 50.1 million metric tons (MMT) from a prior 48.6 MMT, and raised its corn production forecast to a record 64 MMT on higher area.

Global grain traders will be watching whether Argentina follows through with additional soybean tax reductions, as even modest cuts can influence farmer selling patterns, export flows and competition in global oilseed markets.

—Cattle futures slip ahead of USDA report

Traders brace for bearish placements data as Plains drought pushes more cattle into feedlots

Cattle futures traders are bracing for a bearish USDA monthly Cattle on Feed report due this afternoon, with the placements figure drawing the most scrutiny. According to a Reuters survey of analysts, cattle on feed as of May 1 are expected to total 11.558 million head — 101.6% of year-ago levels, which would mark the first year-over-year increase in feedlot inventories since November 2024.

April placements are seen at 1.668 million head, or 103.4% of last year’s pace, while marketings for the month are estimated at 1.655 million head — just 90.7% of one year ago. It is the placements number that has traders most on edge.

A resurgence of drought across the Plains has encouraged producers to send more cattle to feedlots, according to analysts.

The bearish sentiment deepened sharply on Thursday. Live cattle futures fell $3.35 to $5.95 lower into the close, while feeder cattle futures were hammered even harder — down $8.75 to the $9.25 daily limit across most of the board, with only the expiring May feeder contract posting a more modest loss of $1.60. Cash trade remained thin, with nervous cattle owners pulling back from bids of $260 live after some light trading Wednesday in Nebraska and Kansas at $265, and a handful of dressed trades at $415. The Thursday Fed Cattle Exchange online auction saw no sales on 652 head offered, with bids stalling at $260. The CME Feeder Cattle Index fell $1.72 to $370.72. With feeder futures hitting their limit, the CME has set expanded daily limits of $13.75 for feeders and $10.75 for live cattle on Friday.

The elevated placements projection is notable against the broader backdrop of a historically tight U.S. cattle supply. The U.S. cattle herd stood at 86.2 million head as of January 1, 2026 — its smallest size since 1951 — with the beef cow herd contracting for eight consecutive years. The U.S. border to Mexico also remains closed to imported livestock to combat the spread of New World screwworm, cutting off approximately 1.2 to 1.5 million head of cattle that feedlots typically source from Mexico each year when the border is open.

Given the shortfall in cattle supplies, feedlots have struggled to source replacement cattle for the feeders they sell to packing plants, and the slowdown in marketings has significantly impacted packers, who have been forced to raise bids to secure enough cattle to maintain production.

Traders are also monitoring a separate labor dispute weighing on the market. Meatpacker Cargill suspended slaughtering at its beef facility in Fort Morgan, Colorado, and stopped paying about 1,700 plant workers in an escalating labor dispute (see related item in Meat & Meat Industry section.)

The USDA report is scheduled for release at 3:00 p.m. ET today.

—Cotton AWP eases. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton is at 68.68 cents per pound, effective today (May 22), down from 71.87 cents per pound the prior week and it breaks a string of 10 consecutive weeks the AWP moved higher from week to week. Despite the decline, the AWP remains well above the mark that would trigger an LDP – 52 cents per pound — with growers’ ability to claim that for 2025 production expiring May 31.

—Brazil cotton exports push toward seasonal record amid robust global demand

Strong shipments, tightening supplies and firm international prices continue supporting Brazil’s cotton market as exports nearly surpass last season’s total with months remaining in the marketing year 

Brazil’s cotton export pace is accelerating toward a near-record finish for the 2025–26 marketing year, underscoring the country’s growing influence in global fiber trade and reinforcing expectations that Brazil could continue gaining market share against key competitors including the United States and Australia.

According to São Paulo’s Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA), Brazil exported 370,400 metric tons of cotton in April, up 6.5% from March and nearly 55% above the same month a year earlier. The April figure marked the largest cotton export volume ever recorded for that month and highlighted the continued strength of international demand for Brazilian fiber.

While still below the all-time monthly record of 452,500 metric tons set in December 2025, the latest export pace keeps Brazil on track for one of its strongest shipping seasons on record. By the first week of May, cumulative exports for the August-to-July marketing year had already reached 2.81 million metric tons, nearly matching the 2.84 million metric tons exported during the entire prior season.

The performance reflects several converging factors, including competitive pricing, a favorable exchange rate environment and sustained buying interest from Asian textile manufacturers seeking diversified cotton origins amid ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainties.

The export surge also reinforces Brazil’s emergence as a dominant global agricultural exporter beyond soybeans and corn. Over the past decade, Brazil has rapidly expanded cotton acreage and invested heavily in logistics infrastructure, allowing the country to challenge traditional suppliers in key import markets such as China, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Turkey.

Meanwhile, domestic cotton prices in Brazil continued strengthening through early May as offseason supplies tightened and growers maintained firm asking prices. CEPEA reported its ESALQ cotton index rose 2.45% between April 30 and May 15 to 4.2435 Brazilian reais per pound.

However, the rally is creating margin pressure for textile manufacturers. Brazilian textile buyers reportedly continue struggling to pass higher raw material costs through to downstream apparel and finished-goods markets, reflecting broader softness in global consumer demand and lingering pressure on retail sectors in several economies.

The firmness in Brazil’s cotton market also comes amid broader volatility across agricultural commodities and fiber markets. International cotton futures have recently drawn support from weather concerns in portions of the U.S. Cotton Belt, ongoing logistical risks tied to global shipping lanes and expectations for steady import demand from Asia.

For U.S. cotton producers, Brazil’s expanding export footprint remains a major competitive challenge. Brazil has steadily increased its role in global cotton trade through lower production costs, large-scale farming operations and improving export capacity, particularly through northern shipping corridors that reduce transportation times to Asian buyers.

Meanwhile, analysts note that strong Brazilian exports help confirm that global textile demand, while uneven, remains resilient enough to absorb large exportable supplies despite economic uncertainty and higher financing costs in many importing nations.

—Agriculture markets yesterday:

Note: Feeder cattle fell the daily trading limit. Expanded limits will apply on May 22.

— Rollins pushes fertilizer reshoring agenda

USDA secretary ties domestic fertilizer production to national security, farm profitability and Trump administration manufacturing goals 

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is intensifying the Trump administration’s push to rebuild domestic fertilizer manufacturing capacity, arguing the U.S. has become too dependent on foreign suppliers for critical crop nutrients. In a social media post Thursday, Rollins said the U.S. has been “offshoring our fertilizer production for decades” and declared that trend “ends now” under President Donald Trump’s leadership.

The comments come as fertilizer markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical disruptions, particularly surrounding the Middle East conflict and shipping concerns tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly a fifth of global LNG and significant volumes of sulfur and ammonia-related feedstocks move through the region, keeping traders on edge over potential supply interruptions and higher nutrient costs.

Rollins’ remarks also align with broader administration efforts to strengthen domestic industrial production across sectors deemed strategically important, including energy, steel, semiconductors and agricultural inputs. Fertilizer has increasingly been framed in Washington as both a food-security and national-security issue following years of supply shocks tied to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Chinese export restrictions, and trade disputes involving phosphate imports from Morocco and Russia.

The administration’s fertilizer focus also comes amid growing political pressure from farm groups over elevated input costs. Producers have repeatedly warned that fertilizer expenses remain historically high relative to crop prices, squeezing margins even as corn and soybean futures have weakened from prior peaks.

Meanwhile, debate continues inside the administration and across the agriculture sector over how best to lower fertilizer costs. Some industry groups and lawmakers continue pressing the White House to suspend or eliminate countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate fertilizer imports, arguing the tariffs have increased costs for U.S. farmers by billions of dollars since 2021. Others inside the administration and domestic fertilizer industry argue long-term supply resilience requires expanding U.S.-based production capacity rather than increasing reliance on imports.

Rollins has increasingly emphasized “reshoring” agricultural supply chains as part of the administration’s broader rural economic agenda, tying domestic manufacturing investment to job creation, energy development and reduced dependence on geopolitical rivals.
 

—Senate GOP weighs SNAP cost-share delay to unlock farm bill path

Republicans and Democrats are increasingly focused on delaying new state funding requirements for SNAP as Senate Agr Committee leaders search for a bipartisan route to clear the 60-vote threshold needed for a farm bill

Senate Republicans are discussing whether to postpone implementation of a controversial Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) cost-sharing requirement created under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), a move that is emerging as a central issue in farm bill negotiations and one of the clearest signs yet that bipartisan pressure is building around the anti-hunger provisions.

The discussions center on delaying a requirement scheduled to begin in October 2027 that would force some states to absorb part of SNAP benefit costs for the first time. Democrats have argued the provision could lead states to reduce eligibility, tighten enrollment, or cut benefits, particularly in states already struggling with budget pressures.

Senate Ag Committee Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) signaled Thursday that Republicans are at least willing to entertain Democratic concerns, though he emphasized the budget challenge associated with any delay. “I’m open to listening to their argument,” Boozman said. “It’s just been very difficult to see where we’ll be able to find the money to pay for that.”

The issue has become especially sensitive because Senate Republicans almost certainly will need Democratic support to move a farm bill through the chamber’s 60-vote threshold. Democrats on the committee have increasingly unified around the position that any bipartisan farm bill must soften or delay the SNAP changes enacted in OBBBA.

Some Republican senators are also privately concerned about the political and fiscal consequences the provision could create for their own states — including conservative-led states that could face significant new spending obligations under the formula. That dynamic is particularly notable because the SNAP cost-share language was originally viewed largely as a Republican policy victory aimed at increasing state accountability and reducing federal spending growth.

Meanwhile, governors and state budget officials from both parties have warned that the shift could create substantial new financial burdens during future economic downturns when SNAP participation typically rises.

The behind-the-scenes negotiations underscore the increasingly difficult balancing act facing Senate Ag Committee leaders as they attempt to assemble what many lawmakers are informally calling Farm Bill 2.0. While Republicans want to preserve major policy victories included in OBBBA, Democrats are making clear that SNAP remains a red-line issue.

The negotiations also highlight a broader structural issue in modern farm bill politics: nutrition programs account for the majority of farm bill spending, meaning bipartisan agricultural coalitions often depend on maintaining support from both farm-state Republicans and urban or suburban Democrats focused on food assistance programs. Without some compromise on SNAP, Senate leaders risk a repeat of previous farm bill stalemates where disagreements over nutrition policy delayed or fractured broader agricultural legislation.

Boozman has said he hopes to release Senate farm bill text and hold a committee markup in June, though the SNAP funding debate now appears likely to become one of the defining issues shaping whether a bipartisan package can ultimately advance to the Senate floor.

—Mexico names new ambassador as security tensions with U.S. intensify

President Claudia Sheinbaum says Roberto Lazzeri will take over as Mexico’s ambassador to Washington as bilateral talks expand to trade, security cooperation and sovereignty concerns tied to recent CIA-linked operations in Mexico

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced Thursday that the United States has formally approved Roberto Lazzeri as Mexico’s next ambassador to Washington, a move that comes at a particularly sensitive moment in the U.S./Mexico relationship as the two countries grapple with security disputes, migration tensions and looming USMCA trade negotiations. 

Speaking during her daily mañanera press conference, Sheinbaum said Lazzeri — currently head of Mexico’s development banks Nacional Financiera and Bancomext — will travel to Washington in the coming weeks to assume the post previously held by Esteban Moctezuma since 2021.

The appointment signals that Mexico is placing a heavy emphasis on economic diplomacy and trade management ahead of the scheduled review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Sheinbaum previously highlighted Lazzeri’s financial and trade credentials when nominating him in April, suggesting Mexico wants a more economically focused representative in Washington as disputes over tariffs, supply chains, agricultural trade and investment intensify.

Meanwhile, the ambassadorial transition unfolds against a backdrop of rising friction over bilateral security cooperation. The report notes that tensions escalated after revelations that CIA agents participated in a drug laboratory raid in Chihuahua without prior authorization from the Mexican government.

That episode has become politically sensitive for Sheinbaum, who has repeatedly stressed that any joint security operations with the United States must respect Mexican sovereignty and operate within the framework of a bilateral “security understanding” negotiated last year.

The sovereignty issue has become one of the defining themes of the Sheinbaum administration’s early dealings with Washington. Mexican officials increasingly appear concerned that U.S. agencies may be operating more aggressively inside Mexico as Washington intensifies pressure on fentanyl trafficking and cartel activity.

Adding to the significance of Thursday’s developments, Sheinbaum confirmed she would meet with U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin later in the day alongside members of Mexico’s Security Cabinet.

Discussions are expected to center on maintaining cooperation under the bilateral security agreement while also addressing contentious issues such as the deaths of Mexican nationals in ICE custody.

Notably, Sheinbaum said she would avoid discussing the U.S. criminal case involving Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya because it falls under the jurisdiction of the U.S. Department of Justice rather than Homeland Security.

The broader geopolitical context also matters. U.S./Mexico relations are entering a potentially volatile period ahead of the USMCA review process, with ongoing disagreements over energy policy, agricultural biotechnology, migration enforcement and cartel-related security operations. The choice of Lazzeri — a finance and trade specialist rather than a career diplomat — suggests Mexico expects economic negotiations to become increasingly central to the bilateral relationship.

Meanwhile, the security dimension remains deeply intertwined with trade and diplomacy. Washington continues to press Mexico for stronger anti-cartel action, while Mexico is attempting to balance cooperation with political demands for greater protection of national sovereignty.

The result is a bilateral relationship increasingly defined by simultaneous economic integration and strategic distrust — a dynamic likely to shape both the upcoming USMCA review and broader North American policy discussions over the next several years.

—Friday: Oil jumps on Iran nuclear, Hormuz tensions

Iran uranium and Hormuz toll reports lift crude prices as Trump rejects restrictions on the key global shipping route and diplomats continue ceasefire negotiations

Brent crude is near $104 a barrel Friday after reports that Iran’s supreme leader ordered enriched uranium stockpiles to remain inside the country, complicating negotiations with the Trump administration over a possible peace and nuclear agreement. The reports also added to concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz after Iran reportedly explored a permanent toll framework for maritime traffic through the critical energy chokepoint. U.S. WTI crude is around $96 a barrel. 

President Donald Trump quickly rejected any toll proposal, arguing the Strait of Hormuz must remain open and free for international shipping. The renewed tensions helped push oil prices higher despite broader market optimism that diplomacy could eventually prevail.

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there were “some encouraging signs” in negotiations, noting Pakistani mediators are expected to travel to Tehran as Iranian officials review the latest U.S. proposal.

Even with Friday’s rally, Brent crude remained down more than 4% for the week as traders continued to price in the possibility of an eventual agreement that could ease geopolitical risks and stabilize global oil flows.

—Thursday: Oil markets reverse lower as Iran tensions, economic fears collide

Brent and WTI crude settle at two-week lows after volatile trading session driven by mixed Iran war signals, Hormuz uncertainty, weak global economic data, and concerns about future Fed tightening 

Oil prices finished sharply lower Thursday after a highly volatile trading session that underscored the market’s struggle to balance escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East against mounting concerns over weakening global economic growth and softer fuel demand prospects.

Brent crude futures settled down $2.44, or 2.3%, at $102.58 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.91, or 1.9%, to close at $96.35 a barrel. Both benchmarks ended at their lowest levels in nearly two weeks despite earlier surging as much as 4% during intraday trading.

The session reflected the increasingly erratic nature of oil markets as traders attempt to gauge whether the Iran conflict is moving toward escalation or diplomacy. Early gains were driven by reports that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei had issued a directive hardening Tehran’s stance on one of Washington’s core demands — the removal of highly enriched uranium stockpiles. The move was viewed as a setback to President Donald Trump’s efforts to broker a diplomatic resolution to the war.

Meanwhile, President Trump later said the United States would eventually recover Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, which Washington believes is linked to nuclear weapons development, though Tehran continues to insist its nuclear program remains peaceful.

Additional anxiety emerged after Iran announced the creation of a new “Persian Gulf Strait Authority,” which would oversee a “controlled maritime zone” in the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway remains the focal point of global energy markets because, before the conflict, it handled roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.

Markets initially extended gains after Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that a proposed tolling system for ships passing through Hormuz would make diplomatic progress nearly impossible. However, crude later reversed sharply lower after Rubio said Pakistani mediators would travel to Iran for additional negotiations, reviving hopes that diplomacy could still reduce tensions.

Analysts noted that traders have repeatedly experienced sharp rallies tied to Middle East headlines only to see prices retreat when ceasefire or diplomatic discussions re-emerge.

ING analysts said the market had “been in this situation multiple times before, which ultimately led to disappointment,” while still forecasting average Brent crude prices around $104 a barrel this quarter.

Meanwhile, major financial institutions continue raising their oil forecasts amid concerns that supply disruptions could intensify over the summer. UBS lifted its September price outlook to $105 Brent crude and $97 WTI.

The broader market backdrop also weighed heavily on sentiment Thursday. Weak euro zone economic data showed business activity contracting at its fastest pace in more than two-and-a-half years during May as elevated energy costs fueled inflation, weakened consumer demand, and accelerated layoffs across Europe. The data reinforced fears that high oil prices themselves may eventually begin destroying demand.

Meanwhile, supply-side uncertainty remains elevated. Seven major OPEC+ producers are expected to approve only a modest production increase for July during their June 7 meeting, suggesting the cartel remains cautious about significantly boosting output despite higher prices.

International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that the combination of peak summer fuel demand, restricted Middle Eastern exports, and falling inventories could push global oil markets into a “red zone” during July and August.

That concern was reinforced by comments from Sultan Al Jaber, who said that even if the conflict ended immediately, full normalization of oil flows through Hormuz likely would not occur until 2027 because of infrastructure and shipping disruptions.

Meanwhile, the United States continues using emergency stockpiles to help stabilize domestic markets. The Energy Information Administration reported nearly 10 million barrels were withdrawn from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week — the largest weekly drawdown on record — while commercial crude inventories also posted a larger-than-expected decline.

The sustained SPR releases, combined with record U.S. crude exports, highlight the growing strain on global supply balances as the United States increasingly acts as a stabilizing supplier to world energy markets.

The energy shock is also beginning to influence monetary policy expectations. Thomas Barkin warned Thursday that geopolitical-driven inflation pressures could eventually force the Federal Reserve to consider additional interest rate hikes depending on how businesses and consumers respond to higher energy costs.

That reinforces growing market concerns that the Iran conflict may no longer be viewed solely as a geopolitical crisis, but increasingly as a macroeconomic and inflationary threat capable of reshaping Federal Reserve policy through the second half of the year.

—Florida’s fields under fire: drought, freeze, and flames push the state’s agricultural sector to the brink

A convergence of historic disasters in 2026 has dealt compounding blows to Florida farmers — threatening crops, draining aquifers, and raising the specter of rising food prices

Florida has long been accustomed to the extremes of nature — hurricanes, flooding, subtropical heat. But the opening months of 2026 have brought a different kind of crisis, one built not from too much water but from a near-total absence of it. Combined with a brutal February freeze and an erupting wildfire season, the state’s agricultural sector now faces what analysts are calling one of the most damaging multi-disaster sequences in recent memory.

A drought of historic proportions. The state was unusually dry for much of 2025, but the intensity of the drought ratcheted up sharply starting in January 2026. By spring, the situation had become dire. According to data from the U.S. Drought Monitor, nearly all of Florida was under at least moderate drought conditions in April 2026, and close to 80 percent of the state faced extreme conditions — the most severe episode since 2012.

The damage extends below ground as well. NASA satellite data show that the drought has left its imprint on the state’s underground water supplies, which are often tapped for drinking water and farming. Aquifer levels in northern and central Florida have fallen to their lowest point in roughly 15 years — a particularly alarming development for a state whose agricultural regions depend heavily on groundwater irrigation.

A freeze that hit first. The drought did not arrive in isolation. Prolonged subfreezing temperatures across several counties caused more than $3.1 billion in agricultural losses to key commodities like sugarcane, citrus, and strawberries, prompting the USDA to issue a federal disaster declaration to help producers recover. The early February freeze was the most significant deep-south freeze for Florida since 2010, resulting in an 8% loss in sugarcane production and damaging citrus, blueberries, and strawberries.

For many growers, the freeze was already a knockout blow. The drought that followed has been the second punch.

Crop by crop: a sector under stress. The agricultural impact is being felt unevenly but broadly across Florida’s diverse farm economy.

Citrus was perhaps the most vulnerable heading into the crisis. Citrus growers, who were already battling disease pressure and high operational costs before the drought, are now adding irrigation costs to a financial burden that has been building for years. The double blow of the February freeze damage and the ongoing drought has placed many operations in a precarious position.

Watermelons face a tight window. In the Suwannee Valley region, which produces roughly one-third of all watermelons grown in the United States across approximately 10,000 acres, farmers are watching the clock. The target harvest date falls around Memorial Day, leaving little time for conditions to improve before yield decisions become irreversible.

Peanuts and corn growers in the same region face an even more fundamental problem. Without consistent rainfall, soil becomes harder and less capable of supporting strong root systems, making it more difficult for crops to develop. One Ocala-area peanut farmer put it plainly: farmers are now having to buy extra fuel just to irrigate fields enough to make them plantable — a cost that would normally not exist at all.

Livestock operations are also under pressure. Farmers report the drought is affecting grass and livestock feed, with many choosing not to fertilize their pastures and instead trying to do everything they can just to sustain food crops.

Wildfires add to the toll. The drought has supercharged a wildfire season that is already alarming. Florida Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson reported that more than 1,500 wildfires burned in the first three months of 2026, putting the state on pace to surpass the 3,100 fires recorded across all of 2025. The prolonged dry spell has already contributed to thousands of wildfires across Florida in 2026, burning over 100,000 acres statewide.

The fires have reached even into ecosystems not typically associated with wildfire risk. Wildfires have burned in wetland environments like the South Florida Everglades, and Florida Agriculture Commissioner Simpson told CBS in late April that Florida has “got one of the worst fire seasons in maybe the last 30 or 40 years.”

Downstream consequences. The compounding disasters carry economic consequences beyond the farm gate. With the impact of these natural disasters, Florida consumers could see higher food prices. Florida is a top producer of numerous fruits and vegetables that stock grocery shelves nationwide, meaning disruptions to its supply chain ripple far beyond the state’s borders.

Florida is entering the heart of its rainy season while still experiencing extreme drought along portions of the state. Some modest rainfall has offered partial relief in recent weeks, but experts caution that isolated storms will not immediately erase months of rainfall deficits, and long-term recovery will likely require weeks — or even months — of consistent rainfall.  For Florida’s agricultural producers, who entered 2026 already under financial strain, consistent relief cannot come soon enough.

Meanwhile, the dire situation in Florida ups the odds that the U.S. Congress later this year will provide ag disaster aid for Florida and other states.

—Cargill lockout intensifies debate over meatpacker wages and industry concentration

UFCW Local 7 says Cargill’s lockout of roughly 1,700 Colorado workers highlights growing tensions over wage growth, inflation pressures, and consolidation in the U.S. beef industry 

A labor dispute involving Cargill’s Fort Morgan, Colo., beef processing plant is escalating into a broader political and economic fight over wages, market concentration, and worker leverage inside the U.S. meatpacking sector.

In a May 21 statement, UFCW Local 7 accused Cargill of locking out approximately 1,700 workers represented by Teamsters Local 455 after employees rejected a proposed five-year labor agreement. According to the union, the dispute centers on wage increases that workers argued would trail inflation and largely mirror compensation structures negotiated at competing meatpacker JBS.

The union said the lockout began shortly after midnight on May 20 and follows a separate three-week strike earlier this year involving nearly 3,800 UFCW Local 7 members at the JBS-owned Swift beef plant near Greeley, Colorado.

UFCW Local 7 argued that Cargill’s wage proposal effectively tied worker compensation to agreements already negotiated with JBS facilities in Colorado, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Michigan, as well as other pork-processing plants nationwide. The union contends the proposed raises would average less than 1.75% annually over five years based on Cargill’s claimed average wage levels at the facility.

The dispute comes at a time when meat prices remain politically sensitive and continue to be closely watched by the White House, USDA, and congressional lawmakers. USDA recently projected additional increases in retail beef prices this year as tight cattle supplies, elevated feed costs, and strong consumer demand continue pressuring the market.

Labor groups argue workers have not shared proportionally in the profits generated during years of historically high boxed beef margins and elevated consumer prices. UFCW Local 7 pointed to Bureau of Labor Statistics data showing beef prices have risen roughly 60% since 2020 while worker pay increases have lagged behind inflation-adjusted gains.

The union also tied the labor fight to broader concerns over concentration in the cattle and beef-processing industries. According to USDA and industry data frequently cited by labor advocates and some lawmakers, the top four beef packers — Tyson Foods, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef — control roughly 80% to 85% of U.S. beef processing capacity, compared to a far more fragmented market structure decades ago.

That concentration issue has become a recurring flashpoint in Washington. Lawmakers from both parties have periodically raised concerns over cattle pricing transparency, alleged anti-competitive behavior, and the widening gap between retail beef prices and cattle producer returns. Multiple congressional hearings since the COVID-19 pandemic have examined whether dominant packers exert excessive control over both livestock procurement and wholesale beef pricing.

The Trump administration previously launched investigations into cattle and beef market dynamics following the 2019 Holcomb, Kan., Tyson plant fire and the subsequent pandemic-era disruptions that sharply widened packer margins. However, labor groups and some farm organizations have argued federal enforcement actions have not significantly altered the structure of the industry.

Meanwhile, the timing of the Cargill dispute is particularly notable given ongoing labor shortages across food manufacturing, transportation, and agriculture-related industries. Meatpacking plants have faced persistent recruitment and retention challenges in recent years due to physically demanding working conditions, immigration uncertainties, and competition for labor from construction, warehousing, and energy sectors.

The outcome of the Fort Morgan dispute could carry implications beyond Colorado, especially as unions attempt to coordinate wage expectations across multiple protein companies during a period of elevated food inflation and tightening labor markets. Cargill has not publicly indicated how long the lockout could continue.

—EPA rolls back refrigerant rules, arguing move will ease food costs

Trump administration says easing Biden-era restrictions on refrigeration chemicals could cut compliance costs across grocery supply chains, while environmental groups warn the move risks higher greenhouse gas emissions and long-term climate impacts 

The Trump administration is moving to roll back a series of Biden-era refrigerant regulations, with the Environmental Protection Agency arguing the changes could help reduce costs throughout the food supply chain — from refrigerated warehouses and trucking fleets to grocery stores and food processors. The White House estimates the regulatory changes could save businesses as much as $2.4 billion by easing compliance requirements tied to refrigeration and cooling systems widely used in food distribution.

Administration officials contend the Biden-era rules imposed significant costs on supermarkets, cold-storage operators, food manufacturers, and transportation companies that rely heavily on industrial refrigeration systems. EPA officials said many businesses faced expensive equipment upgrades, refrigerant substitutions, and additional reporting obligations tied to phasedown requirements for hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), chemicals commonly used in refrigeration and air conditioning systems.

The administration argues that reducing those compliance burdens could help ease operating costs at a time when consumers remain sensitive to food inflation. Officials also emphasized that refrigeration costs affect nearly every stage of the food supply chain, including meat processing, dairy production, produce storage, and refrigerated trucking.

The White House framed the rollback as part of a broader effort to lower household costs and reduce regulatory pressure on industries tied to food and agriculture.

Industry groups representing food retailers, convenience stores, and transportation interests have long argued that rapid refrigerant transitions were difficult and costly, especially for smaller operators. Some businesses warned that accelerated mandates to adopt alternative refrigerants and install new systems risked higher capital costs that would eventually be passed along to consumers through higher grocery prices.

Meanwhile, environmental organizations sharply criticized the move, arguing the Biden-era standards were designed to curb emissions from potent greenhouse gases that contribute significantly to global warming. HFCs, while less damaging to the ozone layer than older refrigerants, can have a much stronger heat-trapping effect than carbon dioxide when released into the atmosphere.

Environmental advocates also argued the rollback could undermine U.S. commitments under international climate agreements and slow the transition toward lower-emission cooling technologies already being adopted globally. Critics said the administration’s projected savings may overstate the economic benefits while underestimating long-term environmental and climate-related costs.

The debate also highlights a broader political divide over regulatory policy and inflation. The Trump administration has increasingly linked environmental regulations to consumer prices, particularly in sectors tied to energy, transportation, manufacturing, and agriculture. Administration officials have repeatedly argued that reducing regulatory costs can help ease inflationary pressures, while critics counter that climate-related regulations often produce long-term economic and public health benefits that outweigh near-term compliance expenses.

The refrigeration issue is especially important for agriculture and food markets because cold-chain infrastructure is essential for transporting perishable goods across the U.S. economy. Refrigerated storage and transport costs have become increasingly scrutinized in recent years amid broader concerns about supply-chain inflation, diesel fuel prices, and food distribution expenses.

—Trucking costs climb as diesel prices surge and driver availability tightens

Higher freight demand, rising fuel expenses and potential CDL restrictions for noncitizen drivers are adding new inflationary pressure across U.S. supply chains, including agriculture and food distribution

U.S. trucking rates continue to move sharply higher as elevated diesel fuel costs, stronger manufacturing activity and concerns about driver availability tighten freight capacity across the country. Industry analysts say the latest increase in freight pricing is becoming increasingly important for agriculture, food processing and retail supply chains because trucking remains the backbone of domestic commodity movement.

Flatbed trucking rates are reportedly up roughly $1 per mile from a year ago — a jump of about 40% — while refrigerated and dry-van freight rates have climbed approximately 36% and 44%, respectively. The increases come as U.S. manufacturing activity shows signs of improvement, boosting freight demand and tightening available hauling capacity.

The diesel market is a major driver behind the increase. Diesel prices have remained elevated amid continued geopolitical tensions tied to the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, where a significant portion of global oil flows transit. Higher diesel costs directly raise operating expenses for trucking fleets, particularly for long-haul freight movements involving agricultural products, livestock feed, fertilizer, refrigerated foods and export-bound commodities.

Meanwhile, the industry is increasingly focused on labor availability. Washington’s effort to revoke commercial driver’s licenses issued to certain noncitizens — framed by supporters as a highway safety initiative — could potentially remove as many as 200,000 drivers from the labor pool, according to some industry estimates. While the exact impact remains uncertain, even a partial reduction in available drivers could materially tighten freight markets.

The timing is particularly sensitive for agriculture. Grain movements, livestock shipments, meat distribution and seasonal produce transportation all rely heavily on trucking capacity. Refrigerated freight markets are especially important for beef, pork, dairy and produce sectors, where higher transportation costs can quickly filter into wholesale and retail food prices.

Agricultural retailers and cooperatives are also watching trucking trends closely because fertilizer, chemicals and farm machinery components move largely by truck after arriving through ports or rail hubs. Rising flatbed demand is particularly relevant for machinery shipments, steel products, construction materials and energy-sector equipment.

Meanwhile, stronger manufacturing demand is creating direct competition with agriculture for available trucking capacity. Industrial freight often commands premium pricing during tight markets, forcing agricultural shippers to pay more during peak seasonal demand periods.

The freight market also reflects broader inflation dynamics now developing across the U.S. economy. Transportation costs feed directly into food inflation, retail pricing and industrial input expenses. Economists note that sustained increases in freight rates can eventually influence broader inflation readings, especially if elevated diesel prices persist through the summer.

Some analysts also warn that if driver availability tightens materially while diesel prices remain elevated, spot trucking markets could experience further volatility heading into harvest season later this year, particularly in major grain-producing regions across the Midwest and Plains.

—Extended Jones Act waiver exposes structural gaps in U.S. coastal shipping

Zachary Davis of Nesvick Trading says the Trump administration’s extended Jones Act waiver has become the most significant real-world test in decades of how U.S. domestic energy markets function when foreign vessels are temporarily allowed to compete in coastwise shipping 

The Trump administration’s decision to extend its Jones Act waiver through an Aug. 16 loading deadline is rapidly evolving from a temporary emergency response tied to the Iran conflict into a major policy experiment with implications for U.S. energy logistics, fuel prices, agriculture, and domestic shipbuilding. According to Zachary Davis of Nesvick Trading, the waiver now represents the broadest and longest suspension of the century-old maritime shipping law since 1950, offering an unusually detailed look at how domestic trade flows change when foreign-flagged vessels are allowed to participate in U.S. coastwise commerce.

The waiver was initially implemented after the Iran conflict disrupted global energy supply chains and sharply elevated freight economics. Those conditions made domestic coastal movements economically viable even on longer and more complex routes. The Maritime Administration’s voyage-level data suggests the impact has been substantial.

During the first 50 days of the waiver, foreign-flagged tankers transported roughly 1.59 million barrels of diesel and other petroleum products from Gulf Coast refineries to the West Coast. That compares with only about 401,000 barrels moved by water in those same product categories during all of last year. The sharp increase indicates that demand for coastal energy shipments already existed, but the availability of Jones Act-compliant vessels was too limited to meet it.

Importantly, Davis noted that the Jones Act tanker fleet remained fully utilized during the waiver period, suggesting foreign vessels supplemented domestic shipping capacity rather than replacing U.S.-flagged operators. That distinction could become central to future policy debates, as critics of the Jones Act have long argued the law artificially constrains domestic commerce by limiting available shipping capacity and driving up transportation costs.

The waiver’s broader impacts have extended well beyond refined fuels. Puerto Rico reportedly received its first-ever bulk propane shipment under the waiver framework because there are currently no Jones Act-qualified liquefied petroleum gas tankers in operation. Prior to the waiver, the island often sourced propane from distant international suppliers, including Chile, despite abundant U.S. Gulf Coast supplies.

Agriculture also benefited from the relaxed shipping restrictions. Several waiver-authorized voyages moved anhydrous ammonia, a key nitrogen fertilizer input, potentially helping ease supply pressures ahead of the growing season.

Meanwhile, California emerged as the largest regional beneficiary of the waiver, tied to nearly half of all approved voyages as Gulf Coast fuel supplies flowed westward amid elevated global energy volatility.

The waiver additionally enabled Bakken crude oil shipments routed through Texas to reach East Coast refining centers, with Phillips 66 highlighting on an earnings call that domestic crude was increasingly replacing imported supplies under the altered logistics environment.

Still, supporters of the Jones Act argue the current data may overstate the long-term economic benefits of broader repeal because the Middle East conflict created unusually high freight margins and emergency supply conditions. The original purpose of the 1920 law was to preserve a U.S. merchant marine and shipbuilding base capable of supporting military sealift and national security needs during wartime.

Yet the current waiver has also intensified criticism that the Jones Act has failed to generate sufficient domestic shipbuilding capacity despite its protections. Critics point to the lack of Jones Act-qualified LPG vessels and limited tanker availability as evidence the law may be restricting domestic commerce without delivering the industrial expansion its backers promised.

The debate carries major implications for energy-consuming regions such as California, Puerto Rico, and parts of the Northeast that often rely on imported fuels despite abundant U.S. production elsewhere. Davis argued the waiver demonstrates that many domestic energy transactions were economically viable all along but were effectively blocked by transportation constraints tied to Jones Act compliance requirements.

Unless the waiver is extended again beyond Aug. 16, many of those shipping flows are expected to disappear, potentially restoring higher transportation premiums for captive regional markets and reigniting debate over whether the century-old maritime law remains aligned with modern U.S. energy and supply chain realities.

— NWS outlook: Scattered flash flooding potential from the Ohio Valley to the western Gulf Coast States the next couple of days… …Another threat of severe thunderstorms today across the southern High Plains… …A wet and unsettled Memorial Day weekend is in store for much of the East, while the West remains warm and dry.

—Drier Corn Belt trend emerges, but flooded Southeast still faces delays

Updated 15-day outlook points to improving planting weather in parts of the Midwest, while excessive moisture continues to hamper fieldwork in the Southeast and HRW wheat belt 

The latest 15-day weather outlook is turning somewhat more favorable for portions of the Corn Belt, with forecasts trending drier overall and offering at least limited improvement for spring planting and fieldwork progress across parts of the Midwest. However, major moisture problems persist in the southeastern Corn Belt, Mid-South, and Southeast, where saturated soils are expected to keep farmers sidelined for an extended period.

Forecasters noted that southeastern sections of the Corn Belt remain excessively wet, with standing water and muddy fields likely delaying any meaningful return to field operations. Even with a slightly drier trend compared to earlier forecasts, the broader weather pattern across the Mid-South and Southeast continues to favor heavy rainfall and substantial drought relief, though that comes alongside increasing concerns about flooding, crop stress, and delayed planting.

Meanwhile, the Hard Red Winter wheat belt continues to see frequent rain opportunities, supporting expectations for above-normal precipitation totals over the next two weeks. The moisture remains highly favorable for summer row crops, pasture conditions, and soil moisture recharge across the Plains. However, analysts cautioned that the rains are arriving too late to significantly improve portions of the winter wheat crop already damaged by earlier drought and heat stress.

In the northern Plains spring wheat region, western areas benefited from meaningful rainfall over the past 24 hours, including nearly two inches at Dickinson, North Dakota. Despite those improvements, the broader 15-day outlook still leans near-normal to modestly below-normal for precipitation across much of the region, keeping traders attentive to soil moisture trends heading deeper into the growing season.

Temperature patterns are also expected to shift notably. Cooler-than-normal conditions across central and eastern areas of the country should persist through tomorrow before a much warmer pattern develops beginning Sunday. Forecasts call for temperatures running 3 to 6 degrees above normal across the northern Corn Belt and as much as 6 to 10 degrees above normal in the northern Plains.

Meanwhile, persistent cloud cover and continued rainfall are expected to suppress any significant heat buildup across the southern Corn Belt and southern U.S. regions through at least the first five days of June, reinforcing the divide between wetter southern production areas and increasingly warmer northern growing regions.