Senate Shapes Middle Ground on Year-Round E15 Legislative Clock Runs Short
China shifts from rumor to routine: daily offer requests signal Beijing Is gearing up for sustained U.S. grain buying
| LINKS |
Link: Kyiv Takes the Oil War to Blue Water
Link: USTR Locks In 25% Tariffs on Brazilian Goods, Betting Leverage
Will Move Brazil
Link: El Niño Is Back at the Panama Canal — but the Grain Squeeze Is
a 2027 Story More Than a Fall One
Link: Fed Beige Book Shows Farm Economy Splitting Along
Crop/Livestock Lines
Link: From Corn Fields to Cargo Ships: Shipping’s Fuel Transition
Could Open an Ocean-Sized Market for U.S. Agriculture
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, July 12
Video show is now on You Tube,Spotify & Apple
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, July 12
| Updates: Policy/News/Markets, July 16, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— U.S. strikes push north toward Tehran as Iran declares Hormuz an ‘unbreakable red line’: U.S. attacks expanded toward Tehran as Iran retaliated across the Gulf and Hormuz shipping slowed sharply ahead of President Donald Trump’s address.
— Senate shapes middle ground on year-round E15 as the legislative clock runs short: Senators are seeking an E15 compromise involving partial small-refinery-exemption reallocation, but limited floor time and disagreement over a legislative vehicle threaten passage.
— Corn builds a big yield framework, but the finish still matters: Strong ear counts point toward a large corn crop, although hot nights and grain-fill weather remain critical as soybeans face mold and disease risks.
— Greer and Rollins face high-stakes Senate Hearings next week: USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins will face questions about farm aid, while USTR Jamieson Greer will be pressed on tariffs, USMCA and China trade commitments.
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: The Dow opened about 100 points higher while the Nasdaq declined, with Asian markets mixed and major European indexes trading lower.
— Equities yesterday: The Dow gained 0.29%, the Nasdaq rose 0.62% and the S&P 500 advanced 0.38% on July 15.
— Warsh’s consistency sends a hawkish signal ahead of July Fed meeting: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s inflation-focused and data-dependent testimony kept rate cuts in doubt and left markets considering the possibility of another increase.
— Beige Book shows economy advancing as energy costs keep inflation elevated: The economy continued expanding, but higher fuel costs altered consumer spending, increased business expenses and intensified financial pressure on some farms.
AG MARKETS
— More than 1 MMT of soybean sales to China in USDA weekly update: China purchased 1.056 MMT of 2026-27 U.S. soybeans, while another 624,600 MT was sold to unknown destinations.
— Grains pause overnight after midweek weather rally: Corn and soybeans eased slightly, soy products firmed and wheat traded mixed as favorable crop ratings competed with heat and geopolitical concerns.
— Global grain markets edge higher as geopolitical risk premium builds: European grains and Malaysian palm oil strengthened, although competitively priced Russian wheat and advancing harvests continued to limit the upside.
— China shifts from rumor to routine as daily offer requests signal sustained U.S. grain buying: New cargo talk, daily price requests and work on a bilateral trade board suggest China is preparing for more regular purchases.
— Ag markets for Wed., July 15: Black Sea shock sends wheat soaring and lifts corn, soybeans: Black Sea shipping risks drove wheat sharply higher and supported corn, soybeans, cotton and hogs, while live cattle remained under pressure.
SCREWWORM
— Screwworm cases reach 39 in Texas, but resolved infestations now outnumber active ones: USDA reports 21 inactive and 18 active cases, with no wildlife infections or adult flies detected in surveillance traps.
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Thursday: Oil holds near one-month high as U.S./Iran conflict escalates: Brent held near $85 as military escalation, threats to Iranian exports and Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy assets rebuilt supply-risk premiums.
— Wednesday: Oil prices edge higher as inventory draw offsets renewed Iran tensions: Brent and WTI posted modest gains as lower U.S. crude inventories supported prices, although traders stopped short of pricing in major supply losses.
HEALTH POLICY & DEVELOPMENTS
— FDA Approves Merck’s daily cholesterol-lowering pill: Lipfendra can reduce LDL cholesterol by as much as 60%, potentially expanding access to PCSK9 therapy through a lower-cost oral treatment.
WEATHER
— NWS outlook calls for additional excessive rainfall and persistent heat: Flooding threatens parts of Texas and the Southwest, while intense heat, smoke and scattered severe storms affect other regions.
— Corn Belt ridge weakens, but heat and dryness risks persist: Scattered storms may benefit the eastern Corn Belt, while western crops face continued dryness, hot nights and uncertain rainfall from next week’s storm systems.
| TOP STORIES—U.S. strikes push north toward Tehran as Iran declares Hormuz an ‘unbreakable red line’Trump to address the nation at 9 p.m. ET tonight as the reimposed naval blockade, a disabled tanker and Iranian missile fire at three Gulf states leave last month’s fragile ceasefire hanging by a thread U.S. strikes expand into northern Iran. American forces intensified their air campaign early Thursday, hitting targets in northern Iran — including areas around Tehran and Semnan province — for the first time in the current cycle of violence. That marks a significant geographic escalation from the past week’s strikes, which had concentrated on Iran’s southern coast, its islands near the Strait of Hormuz, and air-defense, radar and drone infrastructure. On Wednesday, U.S. forces conducted rare daylight strikes on Greater Tunb Island, targeting Iranian defense installations, and a strike on a barracks of the 388th Mechanized Infantry Brigade in Sistan and Baluchestan province killed at least seven Iranian military personnel, including conscripts. Iranian health officials say the week’s U.S. strikes have killed more than 35 people and wounded some 300, with explosions reported in more than 20 locations including Ahvaz, Isfahan and Bandar Abbas. A tanker disabled for trying to run the blockade. In the first known enforcement action of its kind since Washington reimposed its naval blockade, U.S. forces fired a missile into the smokestack of the Curacao-flagged oil tanker Belma after the vessel “ignored multiple warnings” while sailing toward Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil-export terminal. The merchant ship was disabled by the direct hit. President Trump had floated — then dropped — a 20% “toll” on Strait of Hormuz traffic before settling on reinstating the full blockade after repeated Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the strait. Iran hits back across the Gulf. Iran responded Thursday with missile and drone attacks aimed at Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait — all hosts to U.S. forces. Jordan’s military said it intercepted four Iranian missiles with no casualties or damage; Kuwait’s air defenses engaged hostile aerial targets in its airspace; and Bahrain activated air-raid sirens. No casualties were immediately reported from the retaliatory salvos. Tehran’s rhetoric hardens. Iran warned that the Strait of Hormuz is an “unbreakable red line.” Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf threatened a fuller military confrontation if the U.S. breaks the terms of the interim deal, and the Revolutionary Guard declared: “The export of oil and gas from the region will be either for everyone or for no one.” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said the understanding between the two sides “has entered a crisis stage,” noting that weekend talks in Oman “were solely focused on the issue of the Strait of Hormuz.” Trump’s primetime address tonight. President Trump will deliver a “Speech to the Nation” from the White House at 9 p.m. ET, announced Monday on Truth Social. Advisers say Iran tops the agenda — “It’s changing by the minute, but it’s something he wants to address,” one said — alongside election integrity and the stalled SAVE Act voter-ID legislation; a senior adviser called the address “a potpourri.” Trump said Wednesday that the Iranians “do want to settle,” without offering specifics, and announced that Tehran had released Dena Karari, a U.S. citizen wrongfully detained since 2024 — a possible goodwill signal amid the shooting. Markets feel it. Brent crude traded above $85 a barrel — roughly 15% above pre-war prices — and average U.S. gasoline prices climbed to $3.81 a gallon. Strait of Hormuz transits have collapsed to a fraction of the pre-war norm of about 100 ships daily, with daily crossings recently slipping from 24 to 14. UN human rights chief Volker Turk condemned the renewed hostilities, calling the waterway “a vital lifeline on which millions are reliant” and urging “diplomacy, restraint and de-escalation.” Perspective: The ceasefire is functionally dead; the question is whether the interim deal is too. The June 17 preliminary ceasefire that paused the war begun February 28 has given way to a week of sustained U.S. strikes and now Iranian counterfire at three Gulf states. Yet both sides are still gesturing at the negotiating table — Oman talks continued through the weekend, Trump says Iran wants to settle, and Tehran released an American detainee even as missiles flew. This is coercive bargaining, not yet total war: each side is escalating to improve its leverage while keeping an off-ramp visible. The northern strikes change the signal. Hitting around Tehran and Semnan moves the campaign from protecting shipping — the stated CENTCOM rationale — toward pressuring the regime itself. That raises the stakes for Iran’s leadership, which has so far calibrated its responses (salvos that Gulf air defenses can intercept) to avoid giving Washington a casus belli for regime-threatening escalation. The risk is that calibration fails: one missile leaking through over Manama or Amman with American casualties would likely force a response neither capital can control. The blockade is the real battlefield. Disabling the Belma demonstrates the U.S. will enforce the blockade kinetically, and the IRGC’s “for everyone or for no one” line is an explicit threat to close Hormuz to all traffic. Roughly a fifth of global oil transits the strait; Brent at $85 reflects a partial squeeze, not a closure. A genuine attempt to shut the strait — mines, mass drone swarms, anti-ship missiles — would send crude well past $100 and hand Trump a domestic inflation problem heading into the fall. Watch tonight’s speech for the off-ramp — or the ultimatum. Trump’s 9 p.m. address is the key near-term signal. A heavy emphasis on the Karari release and “they want to settle” points toward a negotiated de-escalation, possibly a Hormuz-specific arrangement out of the Oman channel. A speech framed around blockade enforcement and further target sets would suggest the administration intends to keep squeezing until Tehran capitulates on terms. The “potpourri” framing — mixing Iran with domestic election themes — may itself be a tell that the White House wants to project normalcy rather than a nation-goes-to-war moment. Bottom line: Both governments are still choosing escalation they believe they can control, betting the other blinks first. With U.S. strikes now reaching the capital region, Iranian missiles falling on three allied states, and the world’s most important oil chokepoint down to a trickle, the margin for miscalculation is the thinnest it has been since February. —Senate shapes middle ground on year-round E15 as the legislative clock runs shortHoeven signals a compromise between the House-passed SRE overhaul and Fischer’s narrow fix, with the Iran supplemental the first-choice vehicle — but calendar math, war-funding politics and a return trip to the House all stand in the way Senate negotiators are quietly assembling what could be the decisive version of year-round E15 legislation, and the shape of the deal is coming into focus. Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) told Politico the eventual product is likely to land “somewhere between what the House passed and Deb Fischer’s (D-Neb.) bill” — a formulation that tells you exactly where the friction is. Fischer’s measure (S 593) is the narrow fix: a permanent Reid vapor pressure waiver extension allowing E15 sales nationwide year-round, full stop. The House-passed bill (HR 1346, approved in May) goes much further, pairing the RVP fix with a restructuring of the small refinery exemption (SRE) program beginning in 2028 — including automatic 75% exemptions for qualifying refiners and a prohibition on EPA reallocating exempted gallons to other obligated parties. Hoeven has conceded senators will “probably have to make a tweak” on the SRE piece, which is diplomatic shorthand for the fact that the House language cannot pass the Senate as written. The SRE dispute is the whole ballgame. Ethanol and corn interests can live with — even welcome — a broader deal, but only if exempted gallons are reallocated so total renewable fuel demand under the RFS is preserved. The House approach, by barring reallocation, would translate into an ongoing erosion of blending obligations, which is why groups like SABR have opposed the House “compromise” even as the American Petroleum Institute applauded it and urged Senate action. On the other side, refinery-state senators — Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) and Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) among them — resist mandatory reallocation as a compliance-cost hit on small refiners serving inland markets. The likeliest landing zone mirrors EPA’s current administrative practice of reallocating roughly 70% of exempted volumes, or phases reallocation in over time. That would give Fischer and the ethanol coalition most of what they need while giving refiner allies a face-saving trim from the House text. Note: SABR is the Sustainable Advanced Biofuel Refiners coalition — a biodiesel-side advocacy group, not an ethanol organization. It represents stakeholders across the biodiesel value chain (feedstock growers, producers, distributors, retailers and suppliers, mostly small businesses making biodiesel from soybean oil, used cooking oil and animal fats), with longtime biodiesel figure Joe Jobe — the former National Biodiesel Board CEO — as its public face. Their relevance to the E15 story: even though SABR supports E15 and agriculture generally, the coalition came out against HR 1346 the day it passed the House (May 13) because of the small refinery exemption provisions bundled into it. Their core concern is the same one driving Senate resistance from the biofuels side — unreallocated exemptions shrink total blending obligations under the RFS, which cuts demand for biomass-based diesel just as much as for ethanol. Worth noting: opposition to the House SRE language isn’t just corn/ethanol groups; it extends to the biodiesel camp, which strengthens the case that the Senate compromise will have to restore some form of reallocation. SABR has also pushed EPA separately to move renewable diesel and SAF out of the biomass-based diesel category to protect biodiesel producers from displacement. The vehicle question is now as important as the substance. The initial focus is the administration’s $87.6 billion Iran supplemental, which already carries $11.1 billion in farm aid and — notably — the White House’s explicit endorsement of codifying permanent, nationwide, year-round E15. That makes the supplemental the best pre-election shot. But it is a complicated ride: Democrats are balking at the war-funding core of the package, and House GOP leadership is now discussing moving the farm-aid and defense pieces through budget reconciliation instead — a route that would strand E15, since reconciliation rules bar policy provisions without direct budget effects. Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has floated standalone E15 legislation as a fallback, though floor time for a standalone bill is precisely what the calendar does not offer. Congress has roughly eight to nine legislative weeks before the elections once the five-week August recess (beginning around Aug. 7) and October campaigning are subtracted, and the farm bill has already excluded E15 on jurisdictional grounds. And even Senate passage would not end the story. A Senate compromise that softens the House’s SRE provisions must go back across the Capitol, where the rural energy coalition that muscled HR 1346 through in May would have to swallow a weaker refinery title — or risk the ping-pong that has killed E15 bills before. Hovering over all of it is EPA’s Set 3 RFS rule, due by Oct. 31 (but sources say likely delayed), which will shape blending obligations regardless of what Congress does; if lawmakers miss the pre-election window, the regulatory track and a lame-duck session become the fallback, with all the uncertainty that implies. Bottom line: the substance of a deal is visible, but the path is narrow, the vehicle is contested, and every week of delay makes a 2026 finish less likely.—Corn builds a big yield framework, but the finish still mattersStrong ears raise expectations as warm nights and soybean disease loom Farmer and grain industry contacts are increasingly optimistic about the U.S. corn crop, with early ear checks showing strong yield potential across important parts of the Corn Belt. Soybean fields also generally look promising, but Minnesota growers are reporting increased mold pressure and remain wary of Sudden Death Syndrome, adding uncertainty to a crop that still has much of its yield to determine. The corn reports are difficult to dismiss. Farmers examining ears are commonly finding 16 and 18 kernel rows, with few of the smaller 12- and 14-row ears that would indicate the plant reduced ear size during earlier stress. Stands are generally good, pollination appears to have progressed successfully in many areas and the crop has established the framework needed for above-average yields. USDA’s latest ratings support the positive field observations. As of July 12, 68% of the U.S. corn crop was rated good to excellent, while 65% of soybeans received the top two ratings. Minnesota’s soybean crop was rated particularly well at 81% good to excellent. Still, grain industry analysts caution that kernel row count is only one component of yield. Ear length, kernels per row, harvest population and final kernel weight will ultimately determine production. A field filled with 18-row ears can still fall short of its apparent potential if stress causes kernels near the tip to abort or if the grain-fill period produces shallow, lightweight kernels. That shifts the corn discussion from whether the crop pollinated to how well it finishes. Daytime temperatures in the lower or middle 90s are not necessarily damaging when plants have adequate soil moisture. Modern corn can tolerate considerable heat, and the more serious problems generally emerge when temperatures approach or exceed the upper 90s or 100 degrees while soils are drying. Temperatures above 95 degrees, particularly when accompanied by low humidity and moisture stress, can dry exposed silks and interfere with pollination. Nighttime temperatures may now be just as important as the afternoon highs. Corn plants manufacture sugars through photosynthesis during daylight, but photosynthesis stops after sunset while plant respiration continues. When nights remain unusually warm, respiration increases and consumes more of the carbohydrates produced during the day. That leaves less energy available to fill kernels. Warm nights also accelerate the accumulation of growing degree days. During reproductive development, that can push the crop toward maturity more quickly and shorten the grain-fill period. The crop may reach black layer sooner, but with less time to add starch and kernel weight. The combination of higher nighttime respiration and a compressed grain-fill period can therefore turn a field with excellent ear counts into a crop with disappointing test weight or lighter-than-expected kernels. The ideal finish would include sunny days in the 80s or lower 90s, adequate soil moisture and nights that cool enough to reduce respiration. University of Minnesota Extension has noted that, when moisture is sufficient, daytime readings from the upper 80s into the lower 90s paired with normal or cool nights can be highly favorable for corn grain fill. The length of the filling period will be especially important because farmers have planted a wide range of hybrid maturities. In southern Minnesota, contacts report that growers may have corn ranging from roughly 90-day relative maturity to hybrids well above 100 days. In some cases, different maturities can be found within the same field because of seed availability, planting delays or replanting. That variability provides some protection because the entire crop will not pollinate or fill grain at exactly the same time. A brief heat or dry spell may affect one maturity more than another. But it also complicates field evaluations. Two plants standing beside each other may have similar ears but be at different points in development, and later-maturity corn will require a longer favorable period before frost. The maturity spread may also produce uneven harvest moisture and make whole-field yield estimates less reliable. Grain analysts say the strong corn reports will make it difficult for the market to sustain a weather premium unless forecasts turn significantly hotter and drier. The crop has not crossed the finish line, but it has cleared several of the most important early hurdles. The burden is increasingly on adverse weather to reduce yields rather than on favorable weather to create them. The soybean outlook is less settled. Soybeans can look excellent from the road in July without providing a reliable indication of final yield. Plants are still flowering, setting pods and determining how many of those pods they can retain. Timely rainfall during late July and August will have an outsized influence on pod numbers, seed size and final production. Some Minnesota farmers say they have already noticed a rise in mold in soybean fields. Dense canopies, limited air movement and wet foliage create an environment favorable for several diseases, but the exact pathogen should be diagnosed before treatment decisions are made. What growers describe generally as mold may include white mold, other fungal diseases or symptoms caused by an entirely different problem. White mold is a particular concern during flowering when cool, wet conditions persist beneath a closed canopy. Infection frequently begins through dead flowers before moving into stems, eventually producing wilted plants, bleached stems and white fungal growth. Fields with narrow rows, high populations, heavy fertility and poor air circulation can face greater risk. University of Minnesota specialists said earlier this season that white mold risk becomes elevated when soybeans are flowering, canopies are full and cool, wet weather keeps plants and soils damp. Fungicides must generally be applied preventively around the early R2 stage to have a chance of limiting infection; they cannot restore plants after white mold is established. Even when applications are timed correctly, economic performance can be inconsistent. Minnesota growers are also always watching for Sudden Death Syndrome, although SDS is separate from white mold and should not be treated as the same disease. The fungus that causes SDS can infect roots shortly after germination, particularly in wet or compacted soils, while the more recognizable leaf symptoms may not appear until the reproductive stages. Yellow flecking between leaf veins can progress to interveinal yellowing, dead tissue, leaf loss and premature plant death. SDS often appears in patches and may be more severe in fields with soybean cyst nematode. By the time foliar symptoms emerge, there is no effective in-season rescue treatment because the pathogen and initial infection are in the roots. Management is largely a future-season strategy involving varieties with SDS resistance, seed treatments specifically effective against the SDS pathogen and stronger soybean cyst nematode management. Disease concerns are also complicating decisions about fungicide and insecticide applications. Some farmers report being encouraged by elevators to include an insecticide when applying a fungicide, even when scouting has not identified a pest population that would justify treatment. The argument is often that the insecticide is relatively inexpensive once the sprayer is already making the trip. That does not necessarily make the application profitable. Insecticides protect yield only when an insect population is large enough to cause economic injury. Applying them too early or without a documented pest can eliminate beneficial insects, encourage insecticide resistance and occasionally allow later-arriving pests to increase more rapidly because their natural predators have been removed. Minnesota research continues to recommend scouting and using established economic thresholds rather than relying on preventive “insurance” treatments. Elevator agronomists can provide valuable local advice, but growers should recognize when a recommendation is based on field-specific agronomy and when it is primarily an opportunity to sell another product. With crop margins under pressure, the proper question is not whether an application might add a bushel under ideal circumstances. It is whether the identified pest or disease, crop stage, weather pattern and expected yield response make it likely that the treatment will pay for itself. Bottom line: The overall crop perspective remains favorable, particularly for corn. Strong stands and impressive ear counts suggest the U.S. crop has established substantial yield potential. But the final outcome will depend on the length of grain fill, soil moisture and whether nighttime temperatures cool enough to preserve carbohydrates for kernel development. Soybeans retain more upside and downside. Adequate August moisture could support strong pod retention and seed fill, while persistent canopy moisture could worsen white mold and other disease pressure in affected areas. The crop looks good nationally, but Minnesota reports of rising mold and the perennial concern about SDS are reminders that favorable condition ratings can conceal meaningful field-level problems. For now, corn appears closer to delivering a large crop than soybeans. Corn has largely built the factory and stocked it with potential kernels. The remaining task is to keep that factory operating long enough—and cool enough at night—to put weight into them.—Greer and Rollins face high-stakes Senate hearings next weekTariffs, USMCA and farm aid will drive Senate scrutiny Congress will get two consecutive opportunities next week to examine how the Trump administration is responding to mounting pressures on U.S. agriculture, trade flows and production costs. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins will appear before the full Senate Appropriations Committee on Tuesday, July 21, at 10 a.m. ET. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will testify before the full Senate Finance Committee on Wednesday, July 22, at 10 a.m. ET. Rollins’ appearance will be part of the Appropriations Committee’s review of President Donald Trump’s June 24 supplemental funding request. The hearing will be chaired by Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. John Caine also scheduled to testify. That broader witness list means much of the hearing will focus on military and national-security funding, but the administration’s proposed $11.1 billion agricultural package places Rollins near the center of the domestic debate over the supplemental. The White House is requesting $10 billion in temporary economic assistance for row and specialty crops planted in 2026 and another $1.1 billion for Florida producers who suffered losses from winter storms in late 2025 and early 2026. The package is part of an $87.6 billion request dominated by military expenditures associated with Operation Epic Fury. It also asks Congress to authorize permanent year-round sales of E15 and revise federal hemp regulations, giving senators several agriculture-related policy issues beyond the direct payments to explore. (The House earlier this week is pushing $12 billion in farmer aid as part of another budget reconciliation measure.) Lawmakers are likely to ask Rollins how USDA would calculate payments, which commodities and specialty crops would qualify and how quickly the department could deliver the assistance. USDA will also have to explain how the new money would interact with the $12 billion in bridge payments announced in December, crop insurance, Supplemental Disaster Relief Program payments and other commodity or disaster programs. The central oversight question will be whether USDA can prevent overlapping compensation while still designing a program broad enough to address low crop prices and sharply higher fuel and fertilizer expenses. The Florida allocation could produce questions about regional equity. Senators from other states affected by drought, flooding, hurricanes or high production costs may ask why Florida’s winter losses merit a dedicated $1.1 billion account while producers elsewhere must rely on national programs. Lawmakers could also press Rollins on payment limitations, adjusted gross income requirements, treatment of equipment gains and whether specialty-crop producers will receive assistance comparable to that provided to major row crops. The year-round E15 request will provide another line of questioning. Supporters are likely to ask Rollins how quickly nationwide year-round sales could increase corn demand and reduce fuel costs, while skeptics may question why a permanent fuels-policy change is being attached to an emergency spending measure. The same procedural concern could arise over hemp provisions and other policy riders included in a package that the administration is presenting as an urgent response to military, public-health and agricultural needs. Greer’s hearing the next morning could be even more consequential. The annual review of the president’s trade agenda was originally scheduled for April 23 but was postponed after the Finance Committee’s previous voting session ran into the early morning. The rescheduled hearing will be led by Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and ranking member Ron Wyden (D-Ore.). The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will be among the first issues Greer faces. The United States declined on July 1 to renew USMCA in its current form, leaving the agreement in force but triggering annual reviews as Washington seeks additional concessions from Canada and Mexico. A third negotiating round with Mexico is scheduled during the week of July 20 — the same week Greer appears before Finance — making the hearing an opportunity for senators to demand specific objectives and a timetable for resolving the dispute. Agricultural questions will probably center on Canadian dairy market access, Mexico’s agricultural and energy policies, science-based sanitary standards and the danger that prolonged uncertainty could disrupt two of the largest markets for U.S. grain, livestock and food products. Senators also are likely to ask whether the administration is seeking tighter automotive and industrial rules of origin without jeopardizing the integrated North American supply chains on which many agricultural exporters depend. USTR’s own trade agenda identifies Canadian dairy practices, Mexican energy and investment policies, labor enforcement and rules of origin as unresolved issues. Tariff authority will be another major flashpoint. The administration’s temporary 10% import surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act took effect Feb. 24 for 150 days, placing its expiration on July 24 unless Congress extends it — only two days after Greer testifies. Senators will want to know whether the administration intends to let the surcharge lapse, seek congressional authorization or replace it with more country- and product-specific actions under Sections 301 and 232. Wyden has already accused USTR of using forced-labor investigations involving 60 trading partners as a pretext to reconstruct broad tariffs invalidated under a previous legal authority. Greer can therefore expect questions about the evidence supporting proposed duties of 10% or 12.5%, why countries with sharply different forced-labor records could face similar rates and whether USTR is pursuing targeted enforcement or primarily searching for a new legal foundation for global tariffs. Transparency surrounding tariff exclusions and consultation with Congress will also be contentious. China will complete the major trade-policy agenda. Senators are likely to seek an update on the new U.S./China Board of Trade, potential reciprocal tariff reductions and Beijing’s commitment to purchase at least $17 billion annually in U.S. agricultural products from 2026 (prorated) through 2028, separate from its soybean commitments of 25 MMT from 2026-2028. Greer will be pressed to identify which commodities China is buying, how compliance will be measured and what enforcement mechanisms apply if purchases or promised market-access changes fail to materialize. Taken together, the hearings could expose an important tension in the administration’s economic strategy. Rollins will be defending another large round of government payments intended to stabilize farm income, while Greer will be defending tariffs and negotiations that the administration says will create more durable markets for U.S. production. The ultimate congressional test will be whether those trade policies are producing measurable and dependable export gains — or whether farmers will continue to require emergency assistance to bridge the gap between promised market access and actual sales. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: The Dow opened up around 100 points higher, and Nasdaq lower by around the same amount.
In Asia, Japan -2.8%. Hong Kong +1.3%. China -1.9%. India flat.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.2%. Paris -0.6%. Frankfurt -0.7%.
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price July 15 | Point Difference from July 14 | % Difference from July 14 |
| Dow | 52,658.64 | +150.37 | +0.29% |
| Nasdaq | 26,269.23 | +162.22 | +0.62% |
| S&P 500 | 7,572.40 | +28.81 | +0.38% |
—Warsh’s consistency sends a hawkish signal ahead of July Fed meeting
Fed chair stresses independence, data dependence and unresolved inflation risks
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh used his first congressional testimony since taking the central bank’s helm to establish a clear policy identity: independent, data-driven and unwilling to declare victory over inflation prematurely. Across two days before Congress, Warsh repeatedly rejected suggestions that political pressure or market expectations would determine the direction of interest rates, emphasizing that the Federal Open Market Committee will act according to the economic evidence available at the time.
That message was particularly important given ongoing calls for lower borrowing costs. Warsh made clear that the Fed’s independence is not merely an institutional principle but a practical requirement for restoring price stability. His refusal to signal whether the central bank is leaning toward a rate increase, reduction or extended pause also marked a departure from the more explicit forward guidance markets have sometimes received from previous Fed leaders.
Warsh’s caution complicated the traditional purpose of the Fed’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report, which gives lawmakers an opportunity to press the chair for clues about the policy outlook. Rather than provide a roadmap, Warsh emphasized that the Fed must retain flexibility. That approach may generate fewer immediate headlines, but it reduces the risk that markets treat any single comment as a commitment that could later prove inconsistent with incoming economic data.
Inflation remained the dominant theme. Warsh repeatedly said the Fed must deliver price stability and indicated that inflation has not yet been reduced sufficiently to justify confidence that the job is finished. Lower-than-expected inflation readings released ahead of each day of testimony did little to alter his tone. He argued that one or two favorable reports are not enough to demonstrate that inflation is moving reliably toward the Fed’s 2% objective.
The market implication is increasingly hawkish. Warsh did not explicitly endorse another rate increase, but his emphasis on defeating inflation and his reluctance to acknowledge the latest data as a decisive turning point left traders considering whether the Fed’s next move could ultimately be a hike rather than a cut. Much will depend on whether softer inflation readings persist and whether higher energy costs begin spreading into transportation, manufacturing and consumer prices.
The second day of testimony produced fewer notable exchanges, but that may reinforce the central takeaway. Warsh delivered substantially the same message throughout both appearances, showing that the Fed’s communication strategy under his leadership will emphasize consistency rather than policy hints. For financial markets, that predictability is useful even when the underlying message is restrictive.
Warsh’s testimony will also be among the final public signals from Fed officials before the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. The central bank’s communications blackout begins July 18, leaving investors to assess the upcoming decision largely through economic reports rather than additional policy commentary. Unless the data shift substantially, Warsh has positioned the Fed to remain patient, vigilant and prepared to keep monetary policy restrictive until officials see convincing evidence that inflation is returning sustainably to target.
—Beige Book shows economy advancing as energy costs keep inflation elevated
Consumers trade down and farms face stress as fuel prices reshape spending
The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book (link) showed the U.S. economy continuing to expand through early July, but persistent energy-related inflation was altering consumer behavior, raising business costs and clouding the outlook for agriculture. Eleven of the Fed’s 12 districts described growth as slight to moderate, while one district said economic activity was steady.
The report, released July 15, was based on information collected on or before July 6. That cutoff is important because oil and refined-fuel markets have become more volatile since then as tensions in the Middle East intensified. The Beige Book may therefore understate the energy-price pressure businesses and consumers were experiencing by the time the report was published.
Consumer spending edged higher overall, but the composition of that spending changed. Higher gasoline and other household costs reduced demand for discretionary merchandise, while consumers increasingly sought lower-priced alternatives. The Boston Fed offered one of the clearest examples: A grocery chain reported softer-than-expected sales but record purchases of chicken and pork as shoppers substituted those proteins for increasingly expensive beef.
That shift is significant for the agricultural economy. It suggests consumers are not necessarily abandoning the grocery aisle but are reallocating food budgets toward less costly products. Beef demand could become more vulnerable if cattle supplies remain tight and retail prices stay elevated, while pork and poultry producers may benefit from substitution. The pattern also indicates that headline food spending can remain relatively firm even as individual agricultural sectors experience sharply different demand conditions.
Price increases were described as moderate in most districts and robust in some. Higher fuel costs were repeatedly identified as a source of both direct and indirect inflation. Cleveland-area businesses reported rising transportation and petroleum-product costs, along with secondary increases for metals, construction materials and other goods sensitive to shipping expenses. Electricity, insurance, software and food costs also continued to climb, although generally at a slower pace than in previous reporting periods.
Philadelphia Fed contacts said fuel surcharges had become more common during the previous six weeks. They also cited higher costs for products dependent on plastics or fertilizer, showing how an energy shock can quickly migrate into manufacturing and agricultural supply chains. Natural gas and petroleum are major inputs in fertilizer production, while plastic packaging, trucking and processing costs influence prices throughout the food system.
The Richmond Fed reported a moderate increase in port activity as companies imported more goods from Asia and adjusted shipping routes following earlier tariff-related disruptions. Some businesses pulled orders forward to avoid potential bottlenecks or additional price increases associated with the Middle East conflict. That activity supported near-term freight volumes, but it may also borrow demand from later periods, creating the possibility of weaker shipping activity once inventories have been replenished.
The St. Louis Fed said uncertainty and high fuel costs continued to weigh on business sentiment. A restaurant operator in central Arkansas reported slower lunchtime traffic but expected conditions to improve if gasoline prices declined. The comment illustrates how fuel costs affect local economies: When households spend more to fill their vehicles, they often reduce restaurant visits and other discretionary purchases.
Transportation conditions were especially complicated. Richmond Fed contacts said trucking volumes were largely unchanged, but increased regulatory enforcement had encouraged consolidation and shifted freight toward licensed and insured carriers. Those companies gained some pricing power. Even so, trucking break-even costs had reportedly risen above spot-market freight rates, an indication that higher fuel, insurance, equipment and compliance expenses remained difficult to recover fully from customers.
Six districts reported temporary economic gains from the World Cup, including stronger bar, restaurant, tourism and lodging activity. Boston-area bars experienced increased beer sales, while Philadelphia tourism benefited from the tournament and America 250 events. Domestic leisure travel was also supported by consumers choosing destinations closer to home rather than taking more expensive international trips.
Those gains, however, are unlikely to produce lasting economic momentum. Once World Cup-related travel and entertainment activity fades, subsequent Beige Book reports could show slower consumer and tourism growth. That makes it harder to determine how much of the current expansion reflects durable demand and how much represents a temporary event-driven boost.
Agriculture remained one of the report’s more fragile sectors. The St. Louis Fed cited pessimism among row-crop producers, particularly rice farmers, with some questioning whether they could remain in business. Lower commodity prices, elevated production expenses and high borrowing costs continue to compress farm margins. Yet a banker in the same district said farm operations were generally holding steady and loan delinquencies had not increased significantly. Link to our special report on the U.S. ag sector.
Those contrasting observations suggest that financial stress is building unevenly rather than producing a broad farm credit crisis. Producers with stronger balance sheets, favorable yields or lower land costs may be able to withstand current margins, while highly leveraged farms or those concentrated in weaker commodities face greater risk. The absence of a sharp increase in delinquencies does not eliminate concern because financial deterioration often appears first in reduced equipment purchases, delayed capital investment and greater dependence on operating credit.
There were also pockets of strength. The Richmond Fed indicated that renewed agricultural trade with China was supporting port activity. Increased exports could improve demand for grains and other farm products, but the benefits will depend on the volume, timing and durability of those purchases. Stronger trade flows may help individual commodities without fully offsetting high input costs and weak profitability across the broader farm sector.
Bottom line: overall, the Beige Book portrayed an economy that was still moving forward but becoming increasingly sensitive to fuel prices. Consumers were adapting rather than retreating entirely, businesses were passing along higher transportation and input costs where possible, and agriculture was showing a widening divide between operations that remained stable and those nearing financial distress.
For Federal Reserve officials, the report offers an imperfect snapshot. Economic activity was expanding when the information was collected, but energy markets and geopolitical risks changed quickly afterward. If gasoline, diesel, fertilizer and freight costs remain elevated, inflation could prove more persistent while discretionary spending and farm profitability weaken. That combination would complicate monetary policy by keeping price pressures alive even as some parts of the economy lose momentum.
| AG MARKETS |
—More than 1 MMT of soybean sales to China in USDA weekly update. USDA weekly Export Sales data included a batch of activity for China, much of it known via daily export sales announcements. The sales activity for China on soybeans for 2026/27 the week ended July 9 included net sales of 1.056 MMT of soybeans, bringing outstanding sales to 1.256 MMT. Of the weekly sales, 872,000 MT were already known via daily export sales announcements during the period. There were also 624,600 MT of soybeans sales to unknown destinations, bringing outstanding sales to 2.325 MMT. Activity for 2025/26 included net sales of 2,000 MT of sorghum, 113,870 MT of soybeans (136,000 MT of new sales), and net reductions of 32 running bales of upland cotton. Sales activity for 2026 included net sales of 106 MT of beef (new sales of 175 MT) and net sales of 382 MT of pork (405 MT new sales).
—Grains pause overnight after midweek weather rally
Corn and soybeans drift fractionally lower while soy products firm; wheat splits as SRW holds gains and HRW backs off
Grain and soybean futures traded quietly mixed in overnight dealings, consolidating after Wednesday’s broad-based advance that saw wheat surge more than 30 cents and corn and soybeans each climb roughly 9 cents. September corn eased 1 1/4 cents to $4.46 1/4, while August soybeans slipped 2 cents to $12.00 1/4, hovering right at the psychologically important $12.00 mark. The soy products held firmer, with August soybean meal adding $1.20 to $320.10 and August soybean oil inching up 4 points to 72.96 cents. Wheat was split: September SRW edged up 1/4 cent to $6.77 3/4, essentially holding Wednesday’s outsized gains, while September HRW gave back 2 3/4 cents to $7.17 1/4.
The overnight pause reflects a market caught between competing forces. On one side, U.S. crop conditions remain historically strong. USDA’s latest weekly ratings pegged corn at 68% good to excellent and soybeans at 65%, both a point better than the previous week, and the department is carrying a corn yield projection of 183 bushels per acre — which would be the second highest on record. Brazil’s record soybean harvest of 180.6 million metric tonnes, up more than 5% from last year, adds another layer of supply-side weight on the soy complex.
On the other side, weather forecasts have injected enough uncertainty to keep sellers cautious. Hot and mostly dry conditions are forecast for the western half of the Midwest crop belt this week, with the pattern potentially extending into next week — a genuine yield threat with corn moving through pollination and soybeans approaching their critical August pod-setting window. That risk premium was a key driver of Wednesday’s rally and helps explain why overnight setbacks in corn and beans were shallow.
Demand signals are also lending support beneath the market. USDA confirmed a sale of 136,000 metric tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China, a welcome flash sale at a time when new-crop export commitments are under scrutiny. Corn export inspections came in at the high end of trade expectations at more than 1.5 million tonnes, underscoring the strong pace of old-crop shipments.
Wheat’s divergent overnight action fits its own fundamental story. SRW continues to draw support from global supply concerns, including shipping restrictions in Russia’s Sea of Azov — a corridor that handles roughly a quarter of Russian grain exports — while excessive heat stresses crops in parts of Europe. HRW, which led Wednesday’s rally on harvest yield reports that rank among the poorest in more than 30 years in some areas, saw light profit-taking overnight as the harvest advances.
The session ahead will hinge on midday weather model runs and weekly export sales data. With the western Corn Belt heat threat unresolved, traders appear reluctant to press the short side despite big crop ratings — but equally unwilling to add much premium until forecasts verify. Expect choppy, two-sided trade until the weather question is answered.
—Global grain markets edge higher as geopolitical risk premium builds
Paris wheat and corn firm, palm oil extends gains; Russian offers at $240/MT still anchor the world wheat market
International grain markets posted modest gains Thursday, July 16, as traders weighed a rising geopolitical risk premium in energy markets against the seasonal weight of the Northern Hemisphere harvest. The tone was firm but restrained, with Black Sea supplies still capping the upside in wheat.
• Paris (Euronext/MATIF) milling wheat futures rose €1.00 to €232.50 per metric ton — about $265.75/MT, or $7.23 per bushel at the current euro exchange rate of roughly $1.14. The gain, worth about 3 cents a bushel in U.S. terms, tracks the firmer tone in U.S. futures, where Chicago wheat rallied Wednesday on some of the lowest hard red winter quality ratings in more than 30 years and on spillover support from crude oil, with Brent trading near $85 a barrel following U.S. strikes on Iran and a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Wheat, as the old trading adage goes, often goes along for the ride when energy markets spike.
But the world wheat market’s center of gravity remains the Black Sea, and there the message is unchanged: Russian new-crop supplies are plentiful and competitively priced. Russian 12.5%-protein wheat was offered at $240/MT FOB Novorossiysk for spot shipment — the equivalent of about $6.53 per bushel. That leaves Russian origin roughly $26/MT (some 70 cents a bushel) below Paris values, a discount wide enough to keep Russia first in line for most Middle East and North African tenders and to limit how far European and U.S. futures can rally on weather and geopolitical headlines alone. A firm euro near $1.14 only compounds the EU’s competitiveness problem, inflating the dollar cost of French wheat to third-country buyers.
•Corn tells a different story — one of European scarcity. Paris August corn gained €1.00 to €246.25/MT ($7.15 per bushel), an extraordinary premium of roughly $100/MT over Chicago values trading near $4.60 a bushel. The spread reflects tight old-crop supplies in Europe after last season’s drought-reduced crop, and it is an open invitation for imports from Brazil — which has just wrapped up a combined corn harvest from its three crops of around 141.7 million metric tons — as well as from Ukraine and the United States. New-crop European premiums should narrow as the EU harvest approaches, but for nearby positions, Europe remains the world’s premium corn market.
•In vegetable oils, Malaysian August palm oil futures added 7 ringgits to 4,537 ringgits per metric ton — about $1,148/MT, or roughly 52 cents a pound, at an exchange rate near 3.95 ringgits to the dollar. Palm continues to draw support from firm export demand — cargo surveyors put July 1–15 Malaysian shipments up about 4% from the same period a month earlier at roughly 646,000 metric tons — and from strength in crude oil, which improves the economics of palm-based biodiesel. Firm palm values lend background support to U.S. soybean oil and, by extension, to the soybean crush.
Bottom line: geopolitics and weather worries are putting a floor under world grain prices, but with Russian wheat offered at $240 and harvests advancing across the Northern Hemisphere, rallies remain selling opportunities for exporters until the Black Sea supply picture changes.
—China shifts from rumor to routine: daily offer requests signal Beijing Is gearing up for sustained U.S. grain buying
Fresh cash-connected talk of 6-8 soybean cargoes, a push to stand up the U.S./China Board of Trade before autumn, and Beijing’s request for daily FOB and CIF quotes on soybeans, corn AND wheat suggest the buying program is becoming institutionalized — not episodic
Three developments late Wednesday, taken together, point to something more durable than the on-again, off-again Chinese demand the soybean market has been trading on for weeks.
The purchases. Cash-connected sources report China secured another 6-8 cargoes of U.S. soybeans late Wednesday — roughly 360,000 to 480,000 metric tons if the talk proves out. That would extend a buying cadence that has been building since early July, when USDA confirmed a 472,000-MT daily sale to China on July 10, the largest single-day soybean sale to that destination since November 2025, with Cofco booking additional cargoes for September-October loading through the week. What matters here is the rhythm, not any single tranche: state buyers are now showing up in the U.S. market on a near-daily basis rather than making one splashy, headline-driven purchase and going quiet.
The mechanism. The U.S. and China are working through the details of getting the USTR-proposed Board of Trade active before autumn. That timing is not accidental. Initial public comments on the Board’s scope and operation closed July 10, rebuttal comments are due July 27, and standing the mechanism up before autumn would have it operational just as U.S. new-crop soybeans come to market — and just ahead of the reported Oct. 1 target for China to drop its 10% retaliatory tariff on U.S. ag goods (with the U.S. removing its 10% fentanyl-related tariff in exchange). The Board is best understood as a modernized Phase One: a standing government-to-government body to manage purchase flows, monitor the trade balance, and adjust tariff treatment on “non-sensitive” products over time, rather than a one-shot purchase agreement that expires and gets litigated after the fact.
The tell. The most operationally significant item is the least flashy one: China is asking for daily FOB and CIF offers for U.S. soybeans, corn and wheat. Buyers who intend to make a few token purchases do not build a daily price-discovery routine. Requesting both FOB (Gulf and PNW loadings) and CIF (delivered) quotes says Chinese state traders are systematically benchmarking U.S. landed costs against Brazilian and Argentine origin every day — the procurement infrastructure you set up when you expect to be buying regularly for months, not weeks. Equally notable is the inclusion of corn and wheat. Chinese buying to date has been a soybean story; daily offers on all three commodities is the first concrete sign Beijing is preparing to spread purchases across the broader $17 billion annual ag commitment the White House says China made at the May Trump/Xi summit, alongside the pledge of at least 25 MMT of soybeans annually through 2028.
Perspective: The gap between cadence and commitment
Keep the arithmetic in view. Even at 6-8 cargoes every few days, current bookings remain modest against the 25-MMT annual soybean target — hitting that number requires a sustained pace on the order of 2 MMT per month, every month. Trade sources have suggested Beijing may front-load roughly 15 MMT by year-end and hold back the remainder, a reminder that these are policy purchases with political sequencing, not commercial flows. Two facts underscore that: Beijing still has not publicly confirmed the dollar or tonnage figures Washington announced, and private Chinese crushers remain almost entirely sidelined because Brazilian beans are still running 50-60 cents cheaper for nearby delivery while the 10% tariff stays in place.
That is precisely why Wednesday’s three-part signal matters. Each item addresses one of the market’s standing objections. The cargo rumors answer “show me the buying.” The Board of Trade timeline answers “show me the enforcement structure” — a standing mechanism gives both governments a venue to keep purchases on schedule and gives USDA-watching traders a reason to believe the flow continues past the next political news cycle. And the daily offer requests answer “show me this is a program, not a gesture.” If the tariff comes off around Oct. 1 as reported, the price gap to Brazil narrows just as Brazilian old-crop supplies seasonally tighten and U.S. harvest lows arrive — the window when China traditionally pivots to U.S. origin anyway.
What to watch: Confirmation is the near-term hurdle: rumored cargoes only count when they appear in USDA’s daily flash sales and weekly export sales reports, and the market has already shown it will fade unverified talk. Beyond that, the markers are the July 27 rebuttal-comment deadline and any USTR announcement formalizing the Board’s structure; official confirmation (from either capital) of the Oct. 1 tariff rollback; whether the daily offer requests translate into actual corn and wheat bookings, which would be genuinely new business; and any sign private crushers — not just Cofco and Sinograin — begin stepping in, the true signal that U.S. beans are competitive on economics rather than instructions.
Bottom line: Rumored cargoes move futures for a session. A standing trade mechanism and a daily quote routine move the structure of demand. Wednesday’s developments suggest Beijing is building the plumbing for sustained purchases into the fall — but until flash sales confirm the volumes and the tariff actually comes off, this remains a policy-driven flow priced on faith, with the burden of proof still on Beijing.
—Ag markets for Wed., July 15: Black Sea shock sends wheat soaring and lifts corn, soybeans
Grain risk premiums expand as cattle and hog futures diverge
Agricultural markets finished broadly higher, led by another explosive rally in wheat as escalating attacks on commercial vessels and port infrastructure threatened grain movement through the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Corn, soybeans, cotton and lean hogs also posted solid gains, while live cattle extended a sharp technical decline amid weakening wholesale beef prices.
• December corn rose 9 cents to $4.69 1/2, closing near the session high and reaching a six-week high. The market benefited from spillover strength in wheat, fresh speculative buying and continued concern about weather during the critical pollination and early grain-fill period. The close just below $4.70 leaves that psychological level as the next important test for the developing uptrend.
Weather remains a source of support even though the U.S. crop entered July with generally favorable yield potential. Heat and elevated nighttime temperatures are especially important because warm nights increase plant respiration, reducing the energy available for kernel development and grain fill. NOAA’s latest outlooks cover July 21-29, keeping traders focused on whether the upper-level ridge retreats enough to permit more widespread rainfall or merely shifts the hottest and driest conditions across the Corn Belt.
Corn’s rally nevertheless faces a substantial fundamental hurdle. USDA’s July estimates pointed to a roughly 16-billion-bushel U.S. crop and projected 2026-27 ending stocks near 1.79 billion bushels. That means weather concerns must become more concrete — or export demand must remain exceptionally strong — for futures to sustain a major advance beyond the current technical recovery.
• November soybeans gained 10 3/4 cents to $12.01 3/4 and settled near the daily high. September soybean meal rose $2.60 to $317.60, while September soybean oil advanced 52 points to 72.18 cents. Soybeans followed wheat and corn higher, but the move also reflected improving demand signals. The June crush by National Oilseed Processors Association members reached a stronger-than-expected 214.3 million bushels, up 15.4% from a year earlier, while soybean oil inventories were below trade expectations. Recent purchases of new-crop U.S. soybeans by China have further improved market sentiment.
The close above $12 is technically constructive for November soybeans, but the market is entering the period when August rainfall becomes increasingly important. Corn can lose yield quickly during pollination, while soybean yields are more dependent on moisture during pod setting and filling. Soybean futures therefore may continue to receive support from corn and wheat in the near term, but a lasting move higher will require either additional Chinese business, continued strength in domestic processing or a deterioration in August weather expectations.
• Wheat remained the centerpiece of the agricultural rally. September soft red winter wheat surged 32 1/2 cents to $6.77 1/2, while September hard red winter wheat climbed 42 cents to $7.20. Both contracts reached two-month highs. September spring wheat gained 25 1/4 cents to $6.83 3/4.
Ukraine said its forces struck at least 11 Russian vessels, including oil tankers, dry-bulk vessels and tugboats, while Russia reported attacks against Ukrainian vessels and port infrastructure near Odesa. Shipping through the Sea of Azov remained restricted, threatening a route that ordinarily handles about one-quarter of Russia’s grain exports. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Black Sea grain-export capacity has reportedly fallen by roughly one-third, with several major terminals suspending purchases or loadings because shipowners are reassessing the security risks. Link to special report this morning on this topic.
That development has forced traders to add a sizable transportation and availability premium to wheat prices. Russia remains the world’s dominant wheat exporter, while Ukraine is an important supplier of wheat, corn and vegetable oils. Even without the destruction of grain itself, higher freight rates, insurance costs, vessel cancellations and port congestion can shift demand toward U.S. and European supplies.
The wheat rally also illustrates the danger of carrying large speculative short positions when geopolitical conditions deteriorate. Technical buying and short covering can magnify the initial fundamental move. However, the new Black Sea premium will be volatile: evidence that shipping is normalizing could produce a sharp correction, while additional vessel or terminal attacks could extend the rally.
•December cotton rose 68 points to 81.55 cents and settled near the daily high. The market continued to attract technical buying as its daily-chart uptrend strengthened. Elevated crude oil prices have also been supportive because higher petroleum costs can make polyester and other synthetic fibers more expensive relative to cotton. Weather forecasts showing limited rainfall across parts of the Southeast and West Texas added modest production risk, although improving rain chances in central Texas could cap buying enthusiasm.
•Livestock markets remained divided. August live cattle fell $1.30 to $230.125, ending near the daily low and reaching its lowest level in nearly four months. The decline reflected continued fund liquidation, deteriorating chart patterns and weakness in wholesale beef. Recent cash trade was reported at $235 to $240 on a live basis, while Choice boxed beef fell $2.67 to $371.28 and Select dropped $5.23 to $359.18. Until boxed-beef values stabilize, futures traders are likely to remain cautious despite historically tight cattle supplies.
August feeder cattle gained $1.15 to $349.95 after touching a five-week low early in the session. The rebound likely reflected bargain hunting and the still-elevated cash feeder market, with the CME Feeder Cattle Index recently above $370. Higher corn prices are a negative for feedlot margins, however, and could limit the ability of feeder futures to mount a sustained recovery while live cattle remain under pressure.
August lean hogs rose $1.875 to $100.325, closing near the daily high and reaching a six-week high. Technical buying accelerated as the contract extended its daily-chart uptrend. Fundamentals also provided support: USDA’s pork cutout recently stood at $101.46 per hundredweight, while the CME Lean Hog Index reached 93.87 cents, its highest level since last autumn. Hot weather could also slow weight gains, tightening near-term pork production even as weekly slaughter remains relatively large.
The broader market message is that grain traders have shifted from concentrating almost exclusively on large U.S. production potential to pricing a combination of weather, export demand and geopolitical risk. Wheat has become the catalyst, corn has achieved a meaningful technical breakout and soybeans have reclaimed $12. Cattle remain the clear exception, with live cattle needing stabilization in boxed beef and cash markets before futures can establish a durable bottom.
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price July 15 | Difference From July 14 |
| Corn | December | $4.69 1/2 | +9 cents |
| Soybeans | November | $12.01 3/4 | +10 3/4 cents |
| Soybean Meal | September | $317.60 | +$2.60 |
| Soybean Oil | September | 72.18 cents | +52 points |
| SRW Wheat | September | $6.77 1/2 | +32 1/2 cents |
| HRW Wheat | September | $7.20 | +42 cents |
| Spring Wheat | September | $6.83 3/4 | +25 1/4 cents |
| Cotton | December | 81.55 cents | +68 points |
| Live Cattle | August | $230.125 | -$1.30 |
| Feeder Cattle | August | $349.95 | +$1.15 |
| Lean Hogs | August | $100.325 | +$1.875 |
| SCREWWORM |
— Screwworm cases reach 39 in Texas, but resolved infestations now outnumber active ones
Two new sheep detections in Pecos County lift the national total, yet USDA’s count of inactive cases has edged ahead of active ones — a tentative sign that the containment effort may be catching up to the outbreak
The New World screwworm outbreak in the United States grew again this week, but for the first time since detections began the tally of resolved cases has moved ahead of the ones still under treatment. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has now confirmed 39 cases of New World screwworm (NWS) nationwide, after confirming two cases in sheep in Pecos County, Texas, on July 14. Those two detections bring Pecos County’s cumulative total to three, the third being a dog whose case is already listed as inactive.
The more telling figure sits beneath the headline count. USDA now classifies 21 of the 39 cases as inactive, with 18 still active. An active case is an animal with a live, ongoing infestation that requires wound treatment and monitoring; a case is moved to inactive once the larvae have been cleared and the wound has resolved with no further screwworm activity. Inactive cases surpassing active ones does not mean the outbreak is over — new confirmations are still arriving — but it is the clearest indication yet that treated animals are being resolved faster than fresh infestations are accumulating.
Case status at a glance
| Measure | Status (as of July 15, 2026) |
| Total confirmed cases | 39 |
| Active cases | 18 |
| Inactive cases | 21 |
| Cases in wildlife or feral animals | 0 |
| Fly-trap (adult fly) detections | 0 |
| States with confirmed cases | 2 (Texas, New Mexico) |
| Most recent confirmations | 2 sheep, Pecos County, TX — July 14 |
Source: USDA APHIS confirmed-case reporting, as of July 15, 2026.
Two further points in the latest reporting are reassuring. USDA continues to report no cases in wildlife or feral animals, and no adult flies caught in surveillance traps. Both matter because they speak to whether the fly is establishing itself in the environment rather than simply turning up in individual livestock wounds. Screwworm becomes far harder to eradicate once it moves into free-ranging wildlife — deer, in particular — which cannot be gathered, inspected and treated the way a rancher’s herd can. An absence of trap catches likewise suggests the reproducing adult population near the affected herds remains low or has not been detected, which is the outcome the eradication strategy is built to produce.
Geographically, the outbreak remains tightly concentrated. Nearly every confirmed case sits in a band of west and south-central Texas — Crockett, Edwards, Terrell and their neighbors — with a single case across the state line in Lea County, New Mexico. Pecos County’s move from one case to three places it squarely inside that cluster and is the reason it stands out on the map below. The clustering is significant: a contained geographic footprint is what makes ring treatment, animal-movement restrictions and the release of sterile flies feasible.
Where the cases are
Figure 1. Texas and New Mexico counties with confirmed New World screwworm cases, mid-July 2026. Pecos County (dark red) received its two newest cases on July 14.
Confirmed cases by county
| County | State | Confirmed cases |
| Crockett | TX | 11 |
| Edwards | TX | 6 |
| Terrell | TX | 4 |
| Pecos | TX | 3 |
| Zavala | TX | 3 |
| La Salle | TX | 2 |
| Brewster · Gillespie · Jim Hogg | TX | 1 each |
| Medina · Sutton · Tom Green · Uvalde | TX | 1 each |
| Lea | NM | 1 |
County distribution reflects the public USDA case dashboard snapshot from mid-July 2026, with Pecos County updated to three following the July 14 sheep confirmations. The 39-case national total includes the most recent confirmations, a few of which are not yet itemized by county in the public snapshot.
The species affected reinforce that this remains a livestock event: cattle account for the largest share of confirmations, followed by sheep and goats, with two dogs among the mix. That profile is consistent with how screwworm spreads — the fly lays its eggs in the open wounds of warm-blooded animals, and working livestock with fresh injuries, castration or branding sites, or navels in newborns are the classic points of entry.
For context, the current U.S. episode traces to the screwworm’s northward march up through Central America and Mexico, and the first domestic case of this outbreak was confirmed in Texas in early June 2026. Screwworm was eradicated from the United States decades ago using the sterile insect technique — mass-rearing and releasing sterilized male flies so wild females mate without producing viable offspring — and that same tool, combined with quarantine and treatment, is the backbone of the response now.
Bottom line: 39 cases is a higher number than a week ago, and active infestations have not stopped appearing. But the crossover in which resolved cases now outnumber active ones, together with the continued absence of wildlife infections and trap detections, is a genuinely encouraging turn. It is the first quantitative hint that the outbreak’s forward momentum is being blunted — a trend worth watching closely rather than a signal to relax, since a single detection in wildlife or a widening of the geographic footprint would quickly change the picture.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Thursday: Oil holds near one-month high as U.S./Iran conflict escalates
Hormuz risks and attacks on Russian energy assets rebuild supply premiums
Brent crude fluctuated around $85 per barrel Thursday, remaining near a one-month high as the United States intensified military operations against Iran to protect commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. forces carried out fresh airstrikes Wednesday against Iranian missile-storage facilities and launch sites near the strategically important waterway.
Market anxiety increased further amid reports President Donald Trump is considering expanding the campaign and has discussed the possible seizure of Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil-export terminal. Any operation involving the island would sharply raise the risk of direct disruptions to Iranian exports and possible retaliation against regional energy infrastructure or tanker traffic.
The renewed conflict has restored a geopolitical risk premium that had faded following the interim peace agreement. The latest rally has reversed roughly one-third of oil’s second-quarter decline, underscoring how quickly prices can respond when the security of Middle Eastern supply routes is called into question.
Meanwhile, continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, fuel-production facilities and oil tankers are adding another layer of supply uncertainty. Those strikes could restrict refined-product availability even without significantly reducing Russian crude exports, potentially placing greater upward pressure on diesel and other fuel prices than on crude itself.
For now, oil traders appear to be pricing in heightened disruption risk rather than a sustained physical shortage. However, any interference with Kharg Island exports or broader shipping through Hormuz could push prices significantly higher, particularly as geopolitical threats increasingly overlap with pressure on Russian energy infrastructure.
—Wednesday: oil prices edge higher as inventory draw offsets renewed Iran tensions
Markets retain a geopolitical premium but stop short of pricing in major supply losses
Oil prices posted modest gains Wednesday as another decline in U.S. crude inventories reinforced evidence of steady demand, while traders largely looked past renewed military exchanges between the United States and Iran. Brent crude settled 0.26% higher at $84.95 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 0.33% to $79.60.
U.S. crude inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels during the latest reporting week, although the decline was smaller than analysts had expected. Meanwhile, a sizable increase in distillate stocks indicated that supplies of diesel and other refined fuels remain adequate despite elevated refinery activity.
Geopolitical tensions remained high after the United States carried out additional strikes against Iranian military assets linked to attacks on commercial shipping. Iran retaliated against U.S. military positions in the region and renewed threats involving strategic energy shipping routes. The restrained market response suggests traders increasingly believe any disruption to global supplies may remain contained.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the central risk for energy markets. Persian Gulf crude exports had begun recovering after the June ceasefire, but the latest military activity has slowed that improvement and pushed shipments back below pre-conflict levels. The reduced flows continue to support a geopolitical risk premium in crude prices.
Middle East uncertainty should keep oil prices supported, but traders appear reluctant to price in a severe supply shock without evidence of a prolonged decline in tanker traffic. Unless shipping conditions deteriorate materially and remain impaired, crude prices may continue to respond cautiously even as military tensions escalate.
| HEALTH POLICY & DEVELOPMENTS |
—FDA approves Merck’s daily cholesterol-lowering pill
Lipfendra may expand access to potent PCSK9 therapy beyond injections
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Thursday approved Merck’s enlicitide, marketed as Lipfendra, a daily pill that can reduce LDL cholesterol by as much as 60%, according to clinical trial results reported by the New York Times. The oral PCSK9 inhibitor could help patients reach cholesterol levels well below those typically achieved with statins, particularly people at elevated risk of heart attack or stroke.
In a 24-week trial involving 2,912 patients, Lipfendra lowered LDL cholesterol to levels as low as 50 to 60 milligrams per deciliter, with side effects comparable to a placebo. Current cardiovascular guidelines recommend LDL levels below 70 for people with above-average cardiovascular risk and below 55 for the highest-risk patients, including those who have already suffered a heart attack.
Lipfendra will carry a list price of $315 for a 30-day supply and is expected to become available within weeks. That is considerably below the $500 to $600 — or more — monthly cost of injectable PCSK9 inhibitors. The pill also can be prescribed by primary care physicians, potentially removing cost, convenience and access barriers that have limited injectable use to roughly 1% of an estimated six million eligible patients.
Injectable PCSK9 inhibitors have reduced heart attacks, strokes and cardiovascular deaths by about 20% among high-risk patients. Merck is conducting a separate outcomes trial to determine whether Lipfendra provides the same cardiovascular protection. Its broader significance may ultimately depend on those results, insurance coverage and whether competing manufacturers respond by lowering prices for injectable treatments.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Additional excessive rainfall likely across the Texas Hill Country today, with focus shifting toward the Big Bend on Friday… …Anomalous heat and humidity persisting across the Northern Plains/Upper
Midwest while spreading into the northern Mid-Atlantic… …Air quality alert from the upper Midwest through the Great Lakes into the Northeast…
…Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms persist across the interior western
U.S with greatest flash flooding threat near the southern borders of
Arizona and New Mexico… …Severe thunderstorms for portions of western Montana later today; strong thunderstorms possible for northern New England today.
—Corn Belt ridge weakens, but heat and dryness risks persist
Storms favor eastern areas as western crops face hot nights and limited rain
The record-strength atmospheric ridge that peaked at 601 dekameters over Minneapolis Monday evening is weakening and shifting southwest, opening the door for scattered thunderstorms across the eastern Corn Belt through Saturday. Deep moisture and atmospheric instability could produce slow-moving storms with locally heavy rainfall, although coverage will remain uneven and some fields may receive little relief.
The western Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat belt are expected to remain largely dry during the next week. Crop stress could be intensified by nighttime temperatures holding above 70 degrees through Tuesday morning. Warm nights limit the ability of corn and other crops to recover from daytime heat, increase respiration losses and can reduce the energy available for kernel development.
As the ridge settles over the Southwest early next week, west-northwest winds aloft should support a series of “ridge-rider” thunderstorm systems. The first may develop over the far northwestern Corn Belt Sunday night, followed by a potentially more significant system around July 22. Those storms could deliver important rainfall, but their narrow and unpredictable paths leave considerable uncertainty over which production areas benefit.
Meanwhile, the Mid-South faces a deteriorating moisture outlook, with below-normal rainfall expected through the 15-day period. Conditions are more favorable in the Southeast, where a tropical-like disturbance could produce more than 0.5 inch of rain in parts of Georgia. A brief cooling period is forecast from July 22–25, but longer-range models indicate heat could rebuild after July 26, with the strongest temperature anomalies centered over western crop regions.
