Some Push for Trump/Xi Talks to Include Tariff Relief for Significant Chinese Purchases of U.S. Farm Goods

Trump beef import plan leaked to WSJ pulled back for now | Mosaic | USDA reports today | U.S. inflation accelerates | Trump/Xi talks update

Link: Trump Beef Import Plan Encounters Immediate Political Blowback
Link: Trump Beef Strategy Faces Political, Trade and Market Crosscurrents

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, May 9
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, May 9

TOP STORIES

— Trump signals possible new military strikes as Iran ceasefire nears collapse: President Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal, raising fears of renewed military action and deeper tensions ahead of this week’s Trump/Xi summit.

— Some have beef with White House delayed beef import plan: The Trump administration delayed plans to expand beef imports after backlash from ranchers and Republican lawmakers worried about pressure on domestic cattle prices.

— U.S. beef imports surge to record pace as exports slide amid tight cattle supplies: Southern Ag Today reported U.S. beef imports hit record levels while exports weakened sharply due to shrinking cattle supplies and collapsing China demand.

— U.S. beef trade debate intensifies as imports rise and China exports collapse: Debate is growing inside the cattle industry over whether the U.S. should prioritize domestic beef supplies over export expansion to China.

— Trump/Xi summit to focus on trade and Iran war: President Trump’s Beijing summit with Xi Jinping is expected to center on trade tensions, Iran, and disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz.

— Dwayne Andreas seen as historical parallel to Cargill CEO joining Trump China trip: The presence of Cargill CEO Brian Sikes on the China trip is drawing comparisons to ADM’s Dwayne Andreas and earlier eras of U.S./China agricultural diplomacy.

— Push is on for Trump/Xi talks to center on tariff relief for significant Chinese purchases of U.S. farm goods: Analysts say reciprocal tariff reductions tied to major Chinese farm purchases could emerge as a centerpiece of renewed U.S./China trade negotiations.

— Shipping fees, port charges expected to loom over Trump/Xi summit: Agricultural exporters and shipping interests are pushing for an extension of the temporary pause on China-linked vessel fees ahead of key trade talks.

— Gas-tax holiday proposal faces fiscal, political hurdles: President Trump’s proposed federal gas-tax suspension is gaining political traction but faces criticism over deficit impacts and limited consumer savings.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today: Global markets weakened as fading hopes for a U.S./Iran peace deal and softer chip stocks pressured investor sentiment ahead of April inflation data.

— Equities yesterday: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh record highs Monday despite lingering geopolitical concerns.

— Inflation accelerates as Iran war oil shock ripples through U.S. economy: April CPI rose more than expected as surging energy costs tied to the Iran conflict increased pressure on consumers and the Federal Reserve.

— Food inflation reaccelerates as grocery prices climb in April: Rising beef, vegetable, and restaurant prices pushed food inflation higher as energy costs continued filtering through the supply chain.

— Warsh clears key Senate hurdle on path to Fed chairmanship: Kevin Warsh advanced toward becoming Federal Reserve chairman after clearing a major Senate procedural vote with limited Democratic support.

AG MARKETS

— Grain futures rally overnight as wheat leads broad commodity gains: Wheat futures surged overnight while corn and soybeans also gained on weather concerns, technical buying, and broader commodity strength.

— Global grain markets mixed as traders weigh Black Sea competition, China demand and weather risks: International grain markets remained mixed as traders balanced aggressive Russian exports, shifting China demand, and global weather uncertainty.

— USDA set to release key May supply and demand report as markets brace for first detailed 2026-27 outlook: Traders are closely watching USDA’s WASDE and winter wheat estimates for updated guidance on supplies, exports, and acreage.

— USDA Crop Progress report shows strong soybean planting pace, improved wheat development: Soybean planting moved well ahead of normal while winter wheat conditions remained stressed in parts of the Plains due to persistent dryness.

— Agriculture markets yesterday: Grain markets posted broad gains Monday led by wheat, soybean meal, cotton, and lean hog futures.

FERTILIZER

— Mosaic cuts phosphate output as sulfur shock ripples through global fertilizer markets: Mosaic is scaling back phosphate production amid record sulfur costs, raising concerns about fertilizer affordability and supply heading into 2027.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Tuesday: Oil extends rally: Brent crude climbed above $107 and WTI topped $101 as traders increasingly feared a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

— Monday: Oil rally resumes as Trump signals Iran ceasefire near collapse: Oil prices surged nearly 3% Monday after President Trump warned the Iran ceasefire was “on life support.”

— Aramco warns oil market disruption could last into 2027: Saudi Aramco warned prolonged Hormuz disruptions could keep global oil markets tight and prices elevated well into next year.

MEAT & MEAT INDUSTRY

— Product of USA Labels renew debate over beef origins and consumer transparency: New USDA labeling standards are reigniting debate over beef origin labeling, imports, and consumer transparency.

TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS

— Panama Canal traffic and fees surge as Hormuz disruptions reshape global shipping: Panama Canal traffic and shipping costs are surging as energy traders reroute cargoes around Middle East disruptions.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— Supreme Court clears way for Alabama redistricting fight ahead of midterms: The Supreme Court reopened Alabama’s congressional redistricting battle, potentially reshaping Black political representation ahead of the 2026 elections.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: The National Weather Service forecast calls for Southeast thunderstorms, Northeast unsettled weather, and mixed precipitation in the Northern Intermountain region.

— U.S. weather pattern swings from planting window to rain-driven delays: Warm, dry weather is accelerating planting across the Plains and Corn Belt before wetter conditions threaten to slow fieldwork next week.
 

—Equities today: Global markets softened as diminishing expectations for a U.S./Iran peace agreement kept investors on edge, while the recent rally in chip stocks lost momentum. Wall Street futures traded lower ahead of the April inflation report, with economists expecting another solid monthly increase that would reinforce views the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in the near term.

—Equities yesterday: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite scored fresh closing records on Monday.

—Inflation accelerates as Iran war oil shock ripples through U.S. economy

Energy prices drive stronger-than-expected April CPI, adding pressure on Fed and consumers

U.S. inflation accelerated more sharply than expected in April as the ongoing Middle East conflict and resulting oil shock continued to filter through the broader economy, reinforcing concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates elevated for longer.

The Consumer Price Index rose 3.8% from a year earlier in April, up from 3.3% in March and marking the highest annual inflation rate since May 2023. The reading also exceeded market expectations of 3.7%, underscoring the growing inflationary impact from surging energy prices tied to the Iran war and the prolonged disruption of shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Energy remained the dominant driver of inflation pressures. Overall energy prices jumped 17.9% year-over-year in April, accelerating from a 12.5% increase in March. Gasoline prices surged 28.4%, while fuel oil prices skyrocketed 54.3%, reflecting the sustained spike in crude oil prices after the closure of Hormuz removed a major share of global oil exports from the market.

The inflation report comes as Brent crude prices recently climbed back above the $100 per barrel level amid growing fears the conflict could intensify further after President Donald Trump described the U.S.-Iran ceasefire as being on “life support.” Analysts increasingly warn that prolonged disruptions in the Gulf could keep energy markets tight well into 2027.

Meanwhile, inflation pressures broadened beyond energy. Shelter inflation accelerated to 3.3% from 3.0%, signaling continued pressure in housing-related costs despite elevated mortgage rates and slowing home sales activity. Food inflation remained elevated at 2.3%, though slightly below March’s 2.7% pace, reflecting ongoing volatility in agricultural commodities, transportation costs, and global supply chains.

On a monthly basis, headline CPI increased 0.6% in April following March’s sharp 0.9% gain, which had been the largest monthly increase since mid-2022. While the monthly pace eased somewhat, it still matched analyst expectations and remained well above levels typically associated with stable inflation.

Core inflation — which excludes volatile food and energy categories and is closely watched by the Federal Reserve — also moved higher. Core CPI rose 2.8% annually in April, up from 2.6% in March and above expectations for 2.7%. Monthly core inflation increased 0.4%, doubling the pace seen in February and March.

The stronger inflation data is likely to reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve, now led by Kevin Warsh pending final Senate confirmation votes, will remain cautious about cutting interest rates despite growing concerns over slowing economic growth and weakening consumer demand.

Several economists increasingly warn the U.S. economy may be drifting toward a stagflationary environment in which elevated inflation coexists with slowing growth, driven largely by external supply shocks tied to energy markets and geopolitical instability.

Meanwhile, agricultural and transportation sectors are also feeling the impact of higher fuel costs. Rising diesel prices continue to pressure farm input expenses, freight costs, fertilizer production economics, and global grain shipping rates, adding another layer of uncertainty for commodity markets already dealing with war-related disruptions and trade tensions ahead of this week’s summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

—Food inflation reaccelerates as grocery prices climb in April

Beef, fresh vegetables and restaurant meals push food costs higher amid broader inflation pressures tied to energy shock

U.S. food prices moved sharply higher in April, adding to mounting inflation concerns as consumers continued to face rising grocery and restaurant bills alongside elevated energy costs. The latest Consumer Price Index report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the overall food index increased 0.5% in April, with food-at-home prices rising 0.7% and food-away-from-home prices increasing 0.2%.

The report showed grocery inflation broadened across most major categories. Five of the six major grocery store food groups posted monthly increases in April, led by meats, poultry, fish and eggs, which climbed 1.3% during the month. Beef prices were especially strong, rising 2.7% in April alone and standing 14.8% above year-ago levels. Uncooked beef roasts surged 17.8% from a year earlier, while beef steaks increased 16.1% over the same period.

Fresh produce prices also contributed heavily to the increase in grocery bills. The fruits and vegetables index rose 1.8% in April and was up 6.1% from a year ago. Fresh vegetable prices jumped 11.5% annually, with tomatoes soaring nearly 40% from year-earlier levels.

Meanwhile, beverage costs continued climbing. Coffee prices rose 18.5% from a year ago, reflecting continued tight global supplies and elevated import costs. Nonalcoholic beverages overall increased 5.1% annually.

Restaurant inflation remained persistent as labor and operating costs stayed elevated. The food-away-from-home index increased 3.6% over the past 12 months, with full-service meals rising 3.8% and limited-service meals up 3.2%.

Some food categories did provide modest relief. Dairy prices were down 0.6% from a year ago, while eggs fell 39.2% annually following last year’s record surge tied to avian influenza disruptions.

Overall, the broader CPI report underscored how food inflation is increasingly interacting with higher energy costs tied to the Iran conflict and disruptions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. The overall energy index surged 17.9% from a year ago, while gasoline prices jumped 28.4%, adding pressure throughout the food supply chain from transportation to processing and retail distribution.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the overall food index increased 3.2% over the last 12 months, while food-at-home prices rose 2.9%. Food inflation remained elevated at 2.3% in April, though slightly below March’s 2.7% pace. 

—Warsh clears key Senate hurdle on path to Fed chairmanship

Two Democrats joined Republicans in advancing Kevin Warsh’s nomination to the Federal Reserve Board, setting up final confirmation votes later this week amid concerns over Fed independence and pressure from President Donald Trump on interest rates 

Kevin Warsh’s nomination to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors cleared a major procedural hurdle Monday evening, moving the former Fed governor one step closer to becoming chairman of the U.S. central bank. 

The Senate voted 49-44 to advance Warsh’s nomination, paving the way for a confirmation vote Tuesday to install him on the Fed board. A separate vote later this week is expected to formally confirm Warsh as successor to current Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Sens. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) and Chris Coons (D-Del.) joined Republicans in supporting the procedural motion, providing bipartisan backing for a nominee whose confirmation now appears highly likely.

Warsh’s path had been briefly complicated by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who had delayed Federal Reserve nominations pending a Department of Justice inquiry into Powell over cost overruns tied to Federal Reserve building renovations. Tillis lifted his hold after the Justice Department announced the criminal inquiry had ended.

Democrats have mounted sharp opposition to Warsh, arguing he may not preserve the Federal Reserve’s traditional independence from political pressure. Critics point to repeated comments by President Donald Trump urging lower interest rates and expressing confidence that Warsh would pursue rate cuts if confirmed.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, has been especially critical, labeling Warsh a “sock puppet” for Trump during the confirmation process. Warren also criticized Warsh for declining during his confirmation hearing to directly state that Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election.

Warsh, meanwhile, has repeatedly defended his independence, telling senators he would make monetary policy decisions based on economic conditions rather than political considerations. The confirmation battle comes at a critical moment for the Fed as policymakers continue balancing elevated inflation risks tied to tariffs and geopolitical energy shocks against slowing economic growth concerns.

—Grain futures rally overnight as wheat leads broad commodity gains

Wheat markets surge on global supply concerns while corn and soybeans firm amid technical buying and weather uncertainty

Chicago grain futures traded higher overnight Tuesday, led by another strong rally in wheat markets as traders continued to monitor tightening global supplies, adverse weather concerns in several exporting regions, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty tied to energy markets and freight costs.

July corn futures rose 4 1/4 cents to $4.79 1/2 per bushel as the market extended this week’s rebound following recent bargain buying and short covering. Traders continued to watch U.S. planting progress, early crop development conditions, and broader macroeconomic sentiment tied to inflation and energy prices. Stronger crude oil futures also continued to lend underlying support to corn through the ethanol sector.

July soybeans gained 4 1/2 cents to $12.17 1/2 per bushel overnight. Soybean futures remained supported by firm domestic crush demand and expectations that any progress in upcoming U.S.-China trade discussions could eventually improve export prospects for U.S. agricultural commodities. Meanwhile, traders continued to closely monitor South American export competition and early U.S. weather forecasts.

In the products, July soybean meal futures added $1.20 to $326.00 per ton, supported by continued strength in livestock feed demand and improving technical momentum. July soybean oil futures climbed 73 points to 74.47 cents per pound, following ongoing strength in global vegetable oil and energy markets amid elevated crude oil prices.

Wheat futures posted the strongest gains overnight. July Chicago soft red winter wheat futures rose 12 1/4 cents to $6.46 1/4 per bushel, while July Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures jumped 16 1/4 cents to $7.02 1/2. Traders continued to focus on weather stress in portions of the U.S. Plains, quality concerns in some global wheat regions, and tightening exportable supplies from key exporters.

Meanwhile, the broader commodity sector remained sensitive to developments surrounding the Middle East conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has kept energy markets volatile and raised concerns about transportation and input costs across global agriculture markets.

—Global grain markets mixed as traders weigh Black Sea competition, China demand and weather risks

International wheat, corn and oilseed prices show diverging trends as U.S. Gulf values remain competitive in some markets while Black Sea supplies continue to pressure global trade flows

Global grain markets were mixed overnight as traders monitored favorable Northern Hemisphere crop conditions, continued aggressive Black Sea export competition and ongoing uncertainty surrounding Chinese demand ahead of this week’s expected talks between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. European wheat futures were slightly firmer, while Russian export prices remained relatively low compared to many competing origins. Meanwhile, Dalian corn and soymeal futures in China were supported by concerns over feed demand and supply logistics tied to elevated energy and shipping costs following disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz.

On the Paris-based Euronext exchange, September milling wheat futures traded near €231 per metric ton, equivalent to roughly $7.15 per bushel in U.S. terms. That compares with U.S. Gulf SRW wheat export values near $6.95 to $7.10 per bushel, depending on protein and freight spreads. Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB Black Sea was quoted around $247 per metric ton, equivalent to about $6.72 per bushel, continuing to undercut many Western exporters in key import tenders across North Africa and the Middle East.

Corn prices globally remained relatively stable. Dalian September corn futures traded near 2,520 yuan per metric ton, equivalent to approximately $5.55 per bushel when converted into U.S. currency and standard bushel measurements. Brazilian export corn values remained competitive near $5.00 to $5.20 per bushel FOB basis, while U.S. Gulf corn export bids were generally near $5.10 to $5.25 per bushel.

Soybean markets were also closely watched as traders assessed whether China could step up purchases of U.S. soybeans if broader trade negotiations advance. November soybean equivalents derived from Brazilian export offers were near $12.25 to $12.45 per bushel FOB, while U.S. Gulf soybean export values were generally near $12.40 to $12.60 per bushel. On China’s Dalian exchange, soymeal futures were supported by feed demand expectations and elevated vegetable oil markets tied partly to global energy concerns.

Malaysian palm oil futures continued to firm, with benchmark crude palm oil futures trading near 4,180 ringgit per metric ton, equivalent to roughly 75 cents per pound in U.S. terms. Traders said higher crude oil prices and continued uncertainty over shipping routes through the Middle East have provided underlying support to vegetable oil markets globally, including soybean oil futures in Chicago.

Meanwhile, analysts continue to monitor weather developments across the U.S. Corn Belt, the Canadian Prairies, the Black Sea region and Western Europe. Traders said global grain markets remain highly sensitive to any threat to production at a time when energy costs, shipping disruptions and geopolitical tensions are already increasing volatility across agricultural commodity markets.

—USDA set to release key May supply and demand report as markets brace for first detailed 2026-27 outlook

Traders focused on NASS winter wheat production estimate, corn demand revisions and soybean trade signals amid volatile global markets

USDA will release its closely watched monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report Tuesday alongside the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s (NASS) first 2026 Crop Production report for winter wheat, giving markets an important early snapshot of U.S. grain and oilseed supplies for the new crop year. The May WASDE traditionally provides USDA’s first full balance sheets for 2026-27, while the accompanying Crop Production report offers the season’s first survey-based estimate of winter wheat production. 

Industry expectations heading into the reports are heavily focused on winter wheat losses tied to Plains drought, strong corn export demand, and whether USDA adjusts soybean outlooks amid shifting global trade flows and the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption.

For wheat, traders are particularly focused on NASS’ winter wheat production estimate after weeks of worsening dryness and heat stress across Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and parts of Nebraska and Colorado. Industry analysts generally expect USDA to sharply reduce winter wheat production from last year, with hard red winter wheat expected to account for most of the decline.

Ahead of the report, private analyst estimates for total U.S. winter wheat production have generally clustered between roughly 1.28 billion and 1.36 billion bushels, with many traders expecting Kansas yields to come in well below trend because of drought stress during critical development stages. Kansas is the nation’s largest hard red winter wheat-producing state and often heavily influences overall U.S. wheat output.

Analysts also expect USDA to show lower harvested acreage in some drought-hit regions as abandonment rates increase. Recent USDA crop condition reports have shown portions of the hard red winter wheat belt continuing to deteriorate, particularly in western Kansas and Oklahoma. The spring wheat crop, meanwhile, remains a secondary focus as northern Plains planting accelerates.

Despite expectations for smaller U.S. wheat production, global wheat supplies may remain relatively comfortable because of large inventories held by major exporters including Russia and India. USDA’s April WASDE showed U.S. wheat ending stocks at 938 million bushels, the highest since 2019-20, though some analysts expect Tuesday’s report to trim those stocks modestly because of lower production expectations.

Corn markets are expected to focus heavily on demand adjustments. Traders broadly expect USDA to show lower 2026 corn production from last year because of reduced planted acreage, though relatively large beginning stocks may keep overall supplies from becoming overly tight. USDA’s February Agricultural Outlook Forum projected 2026 corn planted acreage at 94 million acres, down from 98.8 million last year.

Export demand remains a major supportive factor for corn futures. Export commitments have been running well ahead of last year’s pace, and many analysts expect USDA to again raise old-crop corn export projections in Tuesday’s WASDE report. Strong export demand, combined with weather concerns in some growing regions, has recently helped stabilize corn prices after months of pressure from large global supplies.

Soybean expectations are more mixed. Traders generally expect USDA to project higher soybean acreage and production this season, though massive Brazilian supplies continue to pressure U.S. export competitiveness. Analysts also are closely watching for any signs that the Trump administration’s summit this week with Chinese President Xi Jinping could lead to additional Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural commodities, especially soybeans.

The May WASDE also is expected to include updated outlooks for rice, cotton and global coarse grains. Cotton traders are anticipating somewhat lower U.S. production estimates amid acreage and weather concerns, while rice markets continue monitoring export demand trends and large domestic supplies.

Historically, the May WASDE and accompanying Crop Production report can generate substantial market volatility because they establish USDA’s initial assumptions for the new marketing year. Analysts caution that early-season projections remain highly sensitive to summer weather developments, particularly for corn and soybeans, meaning Tuesday’s figures are likely to evolve considerably over the coming months.

—USDA Crop Progress report shows strong soybean planting pace, improved wheat development

Soybean planting surged ahead of the historical pace, winter wheat development accelerated across the Plains, and rice conditionsremained mostly favorable, while persistent dryness in parts of Kansas and Nebraska continued to pressure wheat and soil moisture conditions

USDA’s latest Crop Progress report showed soybean planting running well ahead of normal, winter wheat development advancing rapidly, and rice conditions remaining mostly favorable, while corn planting stayed ahead of the historical average but behind last year’s pace. The report also highlighted persistent moisture deficits across parts of the Plains wheat belt. 

Corn planting reached 57% complete nationwide across the 18 major producing states as of May 10, ahead of the 52% five-year average pace but behind last year’s 59%. Corn emergence stood at 19%, matching the five-year average but trailing last year’s 26%. Iowa corn planting reached 72%, Nebraska was 67%, Illinois stood at 54%, and North Dakota lagged at 25%.

Soybean planting accelerated to 49% complete across the 18 major producing states, well ahead of the 36% five-year average and above last year’s 45%. Arkansas soybeans were 81% planted, Louisiana reached 91%, Mississippi stood at 83%, and Iowa was 60% planted. Soybean emergence reached 20%, also ahead of the 12% historical average.

Winter wheat development moved rapidly, with 61% of the crop headed nationwide versus the 45% five-year average and 51% last year. Kansas winter wheat was 86% headed and Oklahoma reached 92%. National winter wheat conditions improved slightly from the previous week, rated 28% good-to-excellent compared to 31% a year ago. However, drought stress remained evident in parts of the Plains, with Kansas rated 51% poor-to-very poor and Nebraska 82% poor-to-very poor.

Spring wheat planting reached 53% complete, slightly ahead of the 51% five-year average, while emergence stood at 19%, matching the historical pace. South Dakota spring wheat was 87% planted and Washington reached 94%.

Cotton planting across the 15 major producing states reached 29%, slightly above the 28% five-year average. Texas cotton planting stood at 27%, California reached 90%, Arizona was 81%, and Mississippi climbed to 47%.

Sorghum planting was 24% complete nationally, matching the five-year average. Texas, the largest sorghum-producing state, reached 72% planted, while Oklahoma was 16% and Kansas stood at 6%.

Rice planting advanced to 84% complete nationwide, ahead of the 77% five-year average. Arkansas, the largest rice-producing state, was 93% planted and 81% emerged. National rice conditions were rated 73% good-to-excellent, compared to 77% a year ago. Louisiana rice was rated 80% good-to-excellent while Texas rice came in at 76% good-to-excellent.

The report also underscored ongoing dryness concerns in portions of the Plains. Kansas topsoil moisture was rated 67% short-to-very short, Nebraska stood at 84% short-to-very short, and Texas was 69% short-to-very short. Subsoil moisture deficits remained severe across several Plains states, including Kansas and Nebraska.

Meanwhile, fieldwork conditions remained favorable across much of the Corn Belt and Plains. Iowa reported 6.5 suitable days for fieldwork, Nebraska 6.5 days, and North Dakota 6.2 days, supporting rapid planting progress during the week.

—Agriculture markets yesterday:

—Mosaic cuts phosphate output as sulfur shock ripples through global fertilizer markets

Production pullbacks in Louisiana, Florida, and Brazil highlight mounting pressure from record sulfur costs, tightening phosphate supplies, and rising concern among U.S. farm groups over fertilizer affordability

The Mosaic Company said Monday it is scaling back phosphate fertilizer production in both the United States and Brazil as soaring sulfur costs and tightening raw material availability disrupt the global fertilizer supply chain. The company withdrew its 2026 phosphate production guidance and announced partial curtailments at facilities in Louisiana and Bartow, Florida, while also reducing production in Brazil.

Mosaic’s move is significant because sulfur is one of the key feedstocks used to make phosphate fertilizer. Sulfur is converted into sulfuric acid, which is then used to process phosphate rock into finished fertilizers such as DAP and MAP — critical nutrients for crops including corn and soybeans. Over recent months, sulfur prices have surged to record highs amid supply disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict and ongoing shipping problems near the Strait of Hormuz, through which a substantial share of global sulfur exports move.

What Mosaic is effectively doing is trying to protect margins and conserve raw materials during a period of extreme input inflation and uncertain supply availability. Rather than continue operating phosphate plants at full rates while paying exceptionally high sulfur costs, the company appears to be throttling production until raw material markets stabilize or fertilizer economics improve. This is a common strategy in commodity industries when feedstock costs spike faster than the price producers can profitably pass on to customers.

The company is also likely attempting to avoid overcommitting production into a highly volatile market. By withdrawing full-year production guidance, Mosaic is signaling that sulfur availability and pricing have become too unpredictable to confidently forecast output levels for the remainder of 2026.

The timing is especially sensitive because global fertilizer markets were already tight before Mosaic’s announcement. The conflict-related disruptions in energy and shipping markets have sharply raised sulfur and sulfuric acid prices worldwide. China and Russia — major participants in sulfur and phosphate-related markets — have also imposed export restrictions or tightened supply flows in recent years, further constraining availability.

Farm groups warn the production cuts could worsen fertilizer affordability problems heading into the 2027 crop planning cycle. American Soybean Association President Scott Metzger, an Ohio farmer, said the reduction in domestic phosphate production comes at “the worst time possible” as growers face weak commodity prices alongside elevated input costs. The soybean group renewed pressure on the Trump administration to eliminate countervailing duties imposed on phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco and Russia. Those duties were originally implemented after trade cases alleging unfair subsidization of foreign phosphate products. Farm organizations, however, have long argued the tariffs reduced import competition and increased fertilizer prices for U.S. producers.

The broader concern across agriculture is that reduced phosphate production, combined with elevated sulfur costs and constrained imports, could tighten fertilizer supplies ahead of future planting seasons and further pressure farm profitability. Analysts are also watching whether other fertilizer producers follow Mosaic’s lead if sulfur prices remain near current extremes.

—Tuesday: Oil extends rally 

Brent crude moved back above $107 per barrel while WTI topped $101 as fears grew that the Strait of Hormuz could remain effectively closed for an extended period, tightening already strained global oil supplies

Oil futures climbed sharply Tuesday, extending the previous session’s gains after President Donald Trump said the U.S.-Iran ceasefire was on “massive life support” following Tehran’s latest peace proposal, which Trump reportedly rejected as unacceptable. Brent crude futures rose above $107 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed past $101 per barrel as traders increasingly priced in the risk of a prolonged disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Market concerns intensified after reports indicated Iran demanded an end to U.S. naval operations and sanctions relief while also seeking to retain some degree of authority over shipping traffic through the strategically vital waterway. The developments reinforced fears that no near-term reopening of Hormuz is likely, leaving global crude and liquefied natural gas supplies severely constrained.

Meanwhile, reports suggested President Trump was preparing to meet with his national security team to consider potential renewed military operations against Iran, while also discussing expanded naval escort operations for commercial shipping transiting the Gulf region. Those discussions added to market anxiety that the conflict could escalate further rather than move toward de-escalation.

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that the market is currently losing roughly 100 million barrels of oil supply each week because of the disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz crisis. He cautioned that if shipping constraints persist for several more weeks, oil market normalization may not occur until sometime in 2027. See item below for details.

The latest rally reverses part of last week’s sharp selloff, when markets briefly hoped diplomatic negotiations between Washington and Tehran could lead to a ceasefire agreement and restore normal shipping activity through the Gulf. Instead, traders are once again focusing on tightening physical supplies, rising geopolitical risks, and the growing possibility of a prolonged global energy shock.

—Monday: Oil rally resumes as Trump signals Iran ceasefire near collapse

Crude prices surge nearly 3% as traders refocus on prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruptions, tightening global supplies, and stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations.

Global oil markets rallied sharply Tuesday after President Donald Trump said the fragile ceasefire with Iran was “on life support,” reigniting concerns that the Strait of Hormuz could remain largely closed for an extended period. 

Brent crude settled up $2.92, or 2.9%, at $104.21 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $2.65, or 2.8%, to finish at $98.07. During intraday trading, Brent briefly approached $106 per barrel while WTI moved back above the $100 threshold.

The rebound came after Trump rejected Tehran’s latest response to a U.S. peace proposal, with markets interpreting the comments as a sign that diplomatic negotiations remain stalled and that any meaningful reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely in the near term. Traders had previously driven oil prices sharply lower last week amid hopes that a negotiated settlement would restore Gulf shipping flows and ease supply disruptions.

Those expectations faded after Iran’s latest position reportedly focused on broader wartime demands, including an end to U.S. naval operations in the region, sanctions relief, compensation for war-related damage, and recognition of Iranian authority over the strait. The tougher Iranian stance renewed fears that one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints could remain severely constrained for months.

Meanwhile, market attention shifted back toward tightening physical supply conditions. Analysts noted that roughly 1 billion barrels of global oil supply have effectively been removed from normal trade flows during the past two months due to the conflict and shipping disruptions. Even if maritime traffic resumes partially, many analysts warn that restoring normal logistics, insurance coverage, and tanker scheduling could take considerable time.

Additional support for crude prices came from reports showing sharply reduced global production and exports. OPEC output reportedly fell in April to its lowest level in more than two decades as regional export flows were disrupted by the conflict. Saudi crude shipments to China are also expected to decline further amid elevated prices and constrained availability.

Despite a handful of isolated tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, overall shipping traffic remains far below normal levels. Energy markets continue to trade almost entirely on geopolitical developments, with price direction closely tied to ceasefire negotiations, Gulf maritime security conditions, and the timeline for restoring Middle Eastern oil exports.

—Aramco warns oil market disruption could last into 2027

Saudi energy giant says prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure is draining global inventories and keeping crude prices elevated well beyond the Iran conflict

Saudi oil giant Saudi Aramco warned Monday that the global oil market may not return to normal this year if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for several more weeks, underscoring the severity of the supply shock caused by the ongoing Iran conflict. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told analysts that if the reopening of the critical shipping corridor is delayed further, “normalization will last into 2027,” signaling expectations for a prolonged period of elevated oil prices and tight supply conditions.

Nasser said that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened immediately, it would still take “months for the market to rebalance,” reflecting the extensive disruption to global crude flows. The waterway — which normally handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments — has effectively remained shut for 10 consecutive weeks, an unprecedented development that has forced consuming nations and refiners to rapidly draw down inventories.

Meanwhile, analysts warn that the market’s buffer against supply disruptions is quickly eroding. JPMorgan Chase said global crude inventories are on pace to fall below 2022 levels and could approach “operational stress levels” by early June. The bank argued the collapse in inventories will ultimately “force” the reopening of the Strait “one way or another,” but cautioned that supplies would still remain constrained even after flows resume.

JPMorgan expects crude prices to remain in the “low $100s” for most of the remainder of 2026 as markets struggle to recover from the supply disruption. The warning reinforces growing concerns that energy inflation could continue pressuring global economies, transportation costs, and agricultural input markets well into next year.

—Product of USA Labels renew debate over beef origins and consumer transparency

New USDA labeling rules tighten standards for meat carrying the “Product of USA” claim, but cattle groups and farm advocates remain divided over whether voluntary labeling goes far enough to clarify where beef products actually come from 

Newly enacted federal “Product of USA” labeling standards for meat, poultry and egg products are reshaping how beef is marketed in grocery stores, while also reigniting debate over mandatory country-of-origin labeling and rising beef prices. According to reporting by Axios, the stricter voluntary labeling rules took full effect Jan. 1 and now require that animals be born, raised, slaughtered and processed in the United States before meat can carry the “Product of USA” label.

The rule marked a significant tightening of prior labeling standards, which critics argued allowed imported meat to receive a U.S. label if it was merely processed or repackaged domestically. Under the revised framework issued by USDA, companies using the claim must maintain documentation proving the product meets the full U.S.-origin standard.

Iowa Cattlemen’s Association CEO Bryan Whaley told Axios the new voluntary rules provide consumers with more clarity while avoiding the higher compliance costs associated with a mandatory labeling mandate. Whaley noted that beef products — particularly ground beef — can still contain meat sourced from multiple countries, making origin information difficult for consumers to fully track despite the updated standards.

Whaley said the Iowa Cattlemen’s Association is not currently pushing for mandatory country-of-origin labeling, arguing that voluntary labeling gives consumers a choice without forcing every packer and retailer into a more burdensome regulatory system that could increase grocery costs.

Meanwhile, groups including National Farmers Union continue to advocate for mandatory country-of-origin labeling, arguing consumers deserve clearer information and that U.S. cattle producers should not have to compete against imported beef marketed in ways that could confuse shoppers.

The labeling debate is unfolding amid broader political and economic tensions surrounding beef prices and imports. The Trump administration has recently backed efforts to increase beef imports as part of a broader push to ease record-high grocery prices, despite opposition from some cattle producers and lawmakers concerned about impacts on domestic ranchers and long-term herd expansion.

According to the Axios report, national average ground beef prices reached roughly $6.86 per pound in March, up about 20% from a year earlier, while steak prices have climbed more than 60% since 2020. Those increases have intensified scrutiny of supply chains, imports and meat labeling practices as consumers search for lower-cost options while also demanding more transparency about food origins.

Industry observers are now watching whether more packers and retailers adopt the voluntary “Product of USA” label and whether pressure from ranchers, consumer groups and lawmakers eventually revives the long-running national fight over mandatory country-of-origin labeling for beef.

—Panama Canal traffic and fees surge as Hormuz disruptions reshape global shipping

Energy traders, tanker operators and LNG exporters increasingly reroute cargoes through Panama as the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues to disrupt Middle East supply flows 

Traffic through the Panama Canal has climbed sharply in the wake of the prolonged Strait of Hormuz blockade, underscoring how the Middle East conflict is reshaping global energy logistics and driving up shipping costs worldwide. According to the Panama Canal Authority, average daily transits reached 39 vessels in April, the highest level in more than three years as tanker traffic accelerated amid disruptions to Persian Gulf export routes.

Energy-related shipping accounted for much of the increase. The authority reported 313 tanker transits through the canal’s Panamax locks in April, up 14% from March and roughly 50% above the monthly average seen before the outbreak of the Middle East war. Meanwhile, liquefied natural gas shipments also surged. The Wall Street Journal reported that 12 LNG carriers crossed the canal in April, the largest monthly total in three years, highlighting how traders are increasingly redirecting cargoes to avoid instability around the Persian Gulf.

The rerouting has dramatically increased demand for scarce canal slots. Average crossing fees reportedly climbed to about $380,000 per ship in April, nearly six times higher than levels before the conflict began. Shipping analysts note that canal reservation premiums have risen as vessel operators compete for faster transit times to move crude oil, refined fuels and LNG cargoes between the Atlantic and Pacific basins.

The surge in Panama Canal usage reflects broader upheaval in global maritime trade caused by the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that normally handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows. With Gulf exports constrained, buyers in Asia, Europe and Latin America have increasingly turned to alternative suppliers in the United States, West Africa and South America, boosting long-haul tanker movements that often rely on the Panama Canal.

Shipping markets have also tightened because many vessels are being forced onto longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope or through the Panama Canal rather than using traditional Gulf export pathways. That has increased voyage times, reduced available tanker capacity and pushed freight rates higher across multiple classes of vessels.

For the United States, the trend has reinforced the strategic importance of Gulf Coast LNG and crude export infrastructure. U.S. LNG cargoes moving from the Gulf Coast to Asian buyers can save substantial time using the Panama Canal rather than sailing around South America, making canal access increasingly valuable as Asian importers seek non-Middle Eastern energy supplies.

Meanwhile, canal congestion and elevated fees are adding another layer of inflationary pressure to global energy and commodity markets. Higher transportation costs are filtering into fuel prices, fertilizer markets and broader agricultural trade flows, especially for commodities moving between the Americas and Asia.

—Supreme Court clears way for Alabama redistricting fight ahead of midterms

High court ruling could allow Alabama Republicans to revive a congressional map with only one majority-Black district, signaling broader implications for Voting Rights Act challenges across the South 

The Supreme Court on Monday cleared the way for Alabama to revisit its congressional map ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, handing Republicans a significant legal victory and underscoring the growing impact of the court’s recent decision narrowing the scope of the Voting Rights Act.

In a brief order, the court sent the case back to a lower court to reconsider Alabama’s current congressional map considering the Supreme Court’s recent 6-3 Louisiana ruling, which raised the legal threshold for challenging voting maps under the Voting Rights Act. The decision could ultimately allow Alabama to reinstate a map first approved in 2023 that contains only one majority-Black congressional district instead of the current two.

The ruling appeared to divide the justices along ideological lines. Justice Sonia Sotomayor, joined by Justices Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson, dissented sharply, arguing the court had “unceremoniously” discarded the lower court’s ruling without justification and warned the decision could create confusion ahead of upcoming elections.

Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall praised the decision, saying it ended a period in which “unelected federal judges have had more say over Alabama’s elections than Alabama’s voters.”

The case stems from earlier federal court rulings that forced Alabama lawmakers to redraw district lines to create a second district where Black voters could elect their preferred candidate. After the legislature resisted and passed a revised map with only about 40% Black voting-age population in one district, a federal court rejected the plan and appointed a special master to create a new map used in the 2024 election. That map resulted in the election of Rep. Shomari Figures (D-Ala.), joining Rep. Terri Sewell (D-Ala.) as Alabama’s two Black members of Congress for the first time.

Figures criticized Monday’s ruling, warning it could move Alabama “back to the 1950s and ’60s in terms of Black political representation in the state.”

The decision also carries broader political implications beyond Alabama. Republicans across the South are increasingly seeking to redraw congressional maps after the court’s Louisiana decision narrowed standards for proving racial discrimination in redistricting cases. Louisiana lawmakers are already debating a new map after Gov. Jeff Landry (R-La.) delayed House primaries, while lawsuits have also emerged in Tennessee over a new map affecting Memphis, a majority-Black city.

The timing is especially notable because Alabama voters are scheduled to head to the polls for primary elections on May 19. Gov. Kay Ivey (R-Ala.) recently signed legislation authorizing new House primaries if courts permit the state to adopt a revised congressional map before the 2026 election cycle.

— NWS outlook: Showers and thunderstorms for the Southeast… …Unsettled weather from the Great Lakes to the Northeast… …Mixed precipitation for the Northern Intermountain Region by Thursday.

—U.S. weather pattern swings from planting window to rain-driven delays

Heat, dryness accelerate fieldwork across Plains and Corn Belt before wetter pattern threatens planting pace next week

Weather conditions across the U.S. are expected to remain sharply divided through the end of the week, with an abnormally warm and increasingly dry pattern dominating much of the western and central portions of the country while cooler-than-normal temperatures persist across the eastern U.S. The most significant heat is forecast to develop across the central Plains and western Corn Belt by Thursday and Friday, with temperatures climbing more than 10 degrees above seasonal averages in some areas.

The combination of warmth and limited rainfall is expected to create a major operational window for farmers across the Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat belt, allowing rapid progress on corn and soybean planting as well as other spring fieldwork. Dry conditions are also expected to support winter wheat harvesting preparations in parts of the southern Plains.

However, the lack of meaningful precipitation is increasingly raising concerns about declining soil moisture, particularly across already dry areas of Nebraska, Iowa and portions of the western Corn Belt. Analysts note that while the current stretch of favorable field conditions is improving planting pace, it is also accelerating the depletion of topsoil moisture reserves needed to support crop emergence and early-season development.

Meanwhile, the weather pattern is expected to shift significantly beginning Friday and continuing into the 6–10-day outlook period. Forecast models indicate a more active storm track developing across the middle of the country, bringing near to above-normal rainfall across portions of the Plains, Midwest and western Corn Belt.

That expected moisture is viewed as critically important for stressed winter wheat areas and for replenishing topsoil moisture ahead of summer development. At the same time, traders and agricultural analysts warn that the wetter pattern could quickly slow or temporarily halt widespread planting activity after this week’s rapid field progress.

The Mid-South and Southeast are expected to remain comparatively dry during the near-term period, allowing producers there an additional opportunity to complete delayed spring fieldwork. Forecasters, however, anticipate a transition toward above-normal precipitation in those regions during Week Two, offering improved moisture prospects following recent planting efforts.