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TUESDAY, AUGUST 18, 2026   |   SPECIAL REPORT & ANALYSIS

CROP PRODUCTION  |  SPRING WHEAT

Some South-Central Montana Wheat Harvest Signals Severe Crop Failure

Local yields challenge USDA’s forecast as disaster aid remains uncertain.

Analysis  ·  August 18, 2026

A south-central Montana producer’s report describes more than a disappointing wheat harvest. It points to a localized production failure in which winterkill forced substantial reseeding and the replacement spring wheat crop then encountered severe heat and moisture stress during grain fill.

On that operation, approximately 2,000 acres of winter wheat were replanted to spring wheat, bringing total spring wheat acreage to roughly 6,000 acres. Fields that appeared capable of yielding more than 40 bushels per acre are producing only 10 to 15 bushels, with no fields exceeding 20 bushels. Test weights near 53 pounds and protein of 18% to 19% complete the picture: the crop produced plants and heads but failed to fill the kernels adequately.

That represents roughly a 60% to 75% collapse from what the crop appeared capable of producing. At 15 bushels per acre instead of USDA’s 32-bushel Montana average, the 6,000 acres would produce approximately 102,000 fewer bushels than the state-average expectation. At 10 bushels, the difference grows to 132,000 bushels.

Table 1. Reported south-central Montana spring wheat results against a drought-year research benchmark and USDA’s statewide forecast. The operation carries about 6,000 spring wheat acres, roughly 2,000 of them reseeded from winterkilled winter wheat. Sources: producer report; Montana State University variety-trial results; USDA-NASS.

Figure 1. Reported local yields sit roughly 20 bushels below USDA’s Montana forecast and 35 to 43 bushels below North Dakota expectations. Sources: producer report; Montana State University; USDA-NASS; Wheat Quality Council.

The Protein Is Another Sign of Stress

The combination of extremely high protein, low yield and light test weight is consistent with severe heat and drought stress during grain fill. Montana State University Extension notes that drought- or heat-stressed wheat frequently has higher protein because grain yield and kernel weight are reduced.

There is also a striking regional precedent. During the hot, dry 2021 season, Montana State University’s south Billings dryland spring wheat trial averaged just 13 bushels per acre, with 17.7% protein and test weight averaging 57.1 pounds. The research attributed the result primarily to heat and drought during grain fill. The producer’s reported yields and protein are almost identical, although the 53-pound test weight indicates even poorer kernel development.

The heat was not merely a perception. During one critical July week, temperatures in south-central and eastern Montana averaged 6 to 12 degrees above normal. Billings reached 111 degrees on July 12.

High protein ordinarily supports a premium, but that premium cannot compensate for losing two-thirds or more of the expected bushels. Light kernels also can create elevator discounts, blending limitations and fewer marketing alternatives.

USDA’s Montana Spring Wheat Estimate Has Downside Risk

USDA’s Aug. 12 Crop Production report forecasts Montana other spring wheat at 2.39 million harvested acres, a yield of 32 bushels per acre and production of 76.48 million bushels.

Table 2. USDA’s Aug. 12, 2026, Crop Production forecasts for the two states that dominate the other spring wheat crop. Source: USDA-NASS.

That would be a 35% increase from Montana’s 56.55-million-bushel crop in 2025. USDA expects the larger crop despite the heat because harvested acreage is projected to rise by 440,000 acres and the statewide yield is forecast three bushels above last year. Montana’s spring wheat planted area increased by 400,000 acres to 2.55 million, an acreage shift consistent with at least some movement from failed winter wheat into spring wheat.

Meanwhile, USDA forecasts Montana winter wheat production at 72.6 million bushels, down 27% from 2025. Harvested acreage is projected to fall from 2.12 million acres last year to 1.65 million this year, while yield drops from 47 to 44 bushels. Those numbers recognize substantial winter wheat abandonment, but they do not necessarily capture how the replacement spring wheat performed after reseeding.

The important timing issue is that USDA’s August forecasts reflect conditions as of Aug. 1. To the extent that damaging heat accelerated grain-fill losses in early August, the Aug. 12 report could be behind what combines are now finding.

Montana’s spring wheat harvest was only 28% complete as of Aug. 16, compared with 41% a year earlier and the five-year average of 42%. USDA rated 47% of the crop good to excellent, but another 39% was merely fair and 14% was poor. With more than 70% of the crop still unharvested, later combine results can still materially change the statewide estimate.

Figure 2. Condition ratings for the week ended Aug. 16, 2026. In both states, the majority of the crop is rated below good. Source: USDA-NASS Crop Progress.

Every one-bushel change in USDA’s Montana yield alters production by approximately 2.39 million bushels. A reduction from 32 to 30 bushels would remove 4.78 million bushels. A 28-bushel yield would cut production by 9.56 million bushels.

Figure 3. Montana other spring wheat production at alternative statewide yields, holding harvested acreage at USDA’s 2.39 million acres. Source: calculated from USDA-NASS.

The producer’s results alone are not enough to conclude that USDA’s statewide forecast is wrong. Better conditions in northern Montana, irrigated production and areas that received timely rain can offset poor south-central fields. But yields of 10 to 20 bushels, accompanied by terminal receipts reportedly running at less than one-third of normal, are strong evidence that the south-central region is performing far below USDA’s statewide assumption.

North Dakota Is Uneven, but USDA May Also Be High

USDA currently forecasts North Dakota other spring wheat at 55 bushels per acre on 4.49 million harvested acres, producing 246.95 million bushels. USDA already reduced the state yield from 58 bushels in July, but it remains equal to last year’s yield.

There are reasons to expect additional downside. Only 44% of North Dakota spring wheat was rated good to excellent as of Aug. 16, while 42% was fair and 14% was poor or very poor. Harvest was 37% complete.

The Wheat Quality Council tour produced a three-day weighted estimate of 48 bushels per acre from 238 field stops — seven bushels below USDA’s current North Dakota forecast. North Dakota Wheat Commission observations indicated somewhat better potential in northern areas but lighter yields in the drier south, with heat advancing maturity rapidly.

The tour is not a statistically representative substitute for NASS, and actual harvested results may differ. But applying the seven-bushel gap to North Dakota’s projected harvested acreage would represent approximately 31.4 million bushels of potential downside.

Montana and North Dakota together account for roughly 68% of USDA’s 474.3-million-bushel other spring wheat forecast. Consequently, yield reductions in those two states cannot easily be dismissed as isolated regional problems. The evidence does not support describing all of North Dakota as poor, but it does support questioning whether USDA’s 55-bushel estimate is still attainable.

Table 3. Illustrative scenarios, not forecasts. Yields are applied to USDA’s current harvested acreage and all other states are held at the August forecast. Production in million bushels. Source: calculated from USDA-NASS and Wheat Quality Council tour results.

Figure 4. The same scenarios shown as national production. A tour-implied North Dakota yield combined with a 28-bushel Montana yield would trim the national crop by about 41 million bushels, or roughly 9%. Source: calculated from USDA-NASS.

Disaster Assistance Is Proposed — but Not Yet Available

There is federal assistance under discussion. The administration has asked Congress for an additional $11.1 billion in agricultural assistance, including $10 billion in temporary economic assistance for 2026 row crop and specialty crop producers and $1.1 billion for catastrophic freeze losses in Florida suffered during the past winter. The official documents still describe this as a request, not an operating program, so there are no signup procedures, eligibility rules or payment rates for the 2026 crop.

The broader $10 billion economic assistance component could very likely include wheat, depending on the legislation and USDA’s eventual formula. The freeze component is less certain for Montana. Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) described the $1.1 billion request as focused on Florida and questioned why other states and other disasters were excluded. USDAS Secretary Brooke Rollins responded that USDA supports broader assistance for drought, freezes, hurricanes and other events, but no broader program has been enacted.

The existing Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP) does not cover this harvest. SDRP is limited to qualifying losses that occurred in calendar years 2023 and 2024, even though its application deadline has been extended through Sept. 30, 2026.

Several south-central Montana counties have emergency-loan eligibility under an existing drought designation. Broadwater and Jefferson are primary counties, while Gallatin, Golden Valley, Meagher, Musselshell and Wheatland are among the contiguous counties. The application deadline is Aug. 31. However, these are loans—not disaster payments—and FSA must determine whether a particular operation and loss qualify under the designation.

Table 4. What is actually available versus what is only proposed. Sources: USDA Farm Service Agency; USDA Risk Management Agency; administration budget request; Senate Appropriations Committee.

The 53-Pound Test-Weight Distinction Matters

Crop insurance is therefore the most immediate assistance mechanism, and the difference between spring and winter wheat grading could be important.

Under federal grain standards, 53-pound hard red spring wheat still meets the minimum test weight for U.S. No. 4. Hard red winter wheat at 53 pounds falls below the 54-pound minimum for No. 4 and therefore grades U.S. No. 5 on test weight alone.

Figure 5. The same 53-pound test weight sits on opposite sides of the No. 4 line depending on the class. Source: Official U.S. Standards for Grain, USDA Federal Grain Inspection Service.

RMA’s Small Grains Crop Provisions generally permit a wheat quality adjustment when the crop fails to meet U.S. No. 4 — meaning it grades No. 5 or worse — because of test weight or certain other recognized defects. Therefore:

• The 53-pound winter wheat may have a quality-adjustment case based on test weight alone.
• The 53-pound spring wheat ordinarily would not qualify on test weight alone because it still meets No. 4, although shrunken kernels, damage or other grading factors could still push it below No. 4.

The 18% to 19% protein may enhance the commercial value of the wheat, but RMA explicitly excludes protein from the factors used to establish the insured local market price. Quality determinations also must be based on approved samples and an insured cause of loss. Producers should therefore contact their crop-insurance adjuster before commingling, feeding, selling or otherwise disposing of grain that may be part of a claim.

Bottom Line

The producer’s report is credible evidence of a severe south-central Montana wheat failure and provides a legitimate reason to question USDA’s 32-bushel Montana spring wheat estimate. It does not, by itself, prove that the statewide or national forecast is overstated. But the forecast’s Aug. 1 cutoff, Montana’s slow harvest, North Dakota’s mixed crop and the gap between USDA and the Wheat Quality Council tour collectively suggest that the next adjustment in spring wheat production is more likely to be downward than upward.

Three things will settle the question before the September Crop Production report: the pace and results of the remaining 72% of Montana’s harvest and 63% of North Dakota’s, whether elevator receipts and test weights in south-central Montana stay at the levels now being reported, and whether Congress converts the $11.1 billion request into a program that reaches wheat growers. Until then, crop insurance is the only assistance actually operating, and grading decisions made at the bin will determine how much of it is available.

AG POLICY & MARKETS DAILY   |   CROP PRODUCTION  |  SPRING WHEAT — TUESDAY, AUGUST 18, 2026