Ag Commodity Markets: Bullish vs. Bearish Factors
Corn, Soybeans, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Wheat, Cotton, Rice, Cattle and Hogs – as of July 19, 2026
| BULLISH | BEARISH |
| Corn | |
| July 10 WASDE: USDA cut 2025/26 U.S. ending stocks 125 million bu. to 2.020 billion and 2026/27 stocks 170 million bu. to 1.790 billion. Export outlook: USDA raised projected 2026/27 U.S. corn exports 50 million bu. to 3.200 billion. Tighter world balance sheet: USDA cut 2026/27 world production 3.29 MMT and ending stocks 5.96 MMT to 275.26 MMT. Late-July heat risk: NOAA favors above-normal temperatures across the Great Plains and much of the central U.S. during July 25-Aug. 2, keeping weather premium in the market. | Large U.S. crop: USDA projects 95.3 million planted acres, a 183.0-bu. yield and 16.000 billion bu. of production. Crop condition remains favorable: Corn was 68% good/excellent on July 12; 34% was silking versus the 30% five-year average. South American competition: USDA’s 2026/27 Brazil forecast is 139 MMT of production and 44 MMT of exports. No broad drought signal: NOAA favors near-normal precipitation across most of the Great Plains, Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley in its late-July outlook. |
| Soybeans | |
| Renewed export buying: USDA announced 1.212 MMT of 2026/27 soybean sales to China from July 8-17; July 17 also brought sales to Mexico and unknown destinations. Strong crush: NOPA members processed 214.34 million bu. in June, up 15.7% from a year earlier and well above trade expectations. Tight U.S. carryout: July WASDE raised 2026/27 exports 30 million bu. to 1.660 billion and held ending stocks at 310 million bu. Weather risk: The late-July NOAA outlook favors above-normal temperatures across much of the central U.S. as soybeans move through flowering and pod setting. | Large production potential: USDA projects 85.4 million planted acres, a 53.0-bu. yield and 4.475 billion bu. of production. Development is ahead: Soybeans were 65% good/excellent; 50% were blooming versus 44% on average and 19% were setting pods versus 13% on average. Record world supply: USDA projects 2026/27 global production at 441.70 MMT, including 186 MMT in Brazil. Brazilian competition: Brazil is forecast to export 118 MMT in 2026/27, preserving a large alternative supply source for China. |
| Soybean meal | |
| Higher export forecast: USDA raised projected 2026/27 U.S. meal exports 300,000 short tons to 22.0 million. Fresh commercial demand: USDA confirmed a July 7 sale of 105,000 MT of soybean cake and meal to Colombia for 2025/26 delivery. Large feed market: WASDE projects 2026/27 domestic meal disappearance at 43.825 million short tons. Competitive pricing: Meal weakness improves its competitiveness in feed rations and export markets, creating demand-response potential. | Record U.S. output: USDA projects 64.985 million short tons of meal production in 2026/27. Crush adds supply: The 214.34-million-bu. June NOPA crush was up 15.7% year over year, generating substantially more by-product meal. Brazilian competition: USDA projects Brazil to produce 50.01 MMT of soybean meal in 2026/27. Oil-led processing: Strong soybean oil incentives can keep crushers running even when meal prices are weak, adding pressure to meal values. |
| Soybean oil | |
| Tighter June stocks: NOPA soybean oil stocks fell to 1.50 billion lbs., down 13.5% from May and below market expectations. Final RFS support: EPA set the 2026 biomass-based diesel requirement at 8.86 billion RINs, plus 0.21 billion RINs of small-refinery-exemption reallocation. Strong biofuel use: USDA projects 17.8 billion lbs. of soybean oil used for biofuel in 2026/27, up 3.25 billion lbs. from 2025/26. Domestic demand focus: USDA projects exports at only 400 million lbs., leaving the bulk of record production to be absorbed domestically. | Record production: USDA projects 32.590 billion lbs. of U.S. soybean oil output and 1.877 billion lbs. of ending stocks in 2026/27. Stocks still above last year: Despite the monthly draw, June NOPA oil stocks were 8.4% above a year earlier. Implementation risk: Meeting the final RFS volumes requires a sharp increase in biomass-based diesel production; waivers or compliance adjustments remain a market risk. Ample world output: USDA projects 2026/27 global soybean oil production near 74.9 MMT and ending stocks near 6.8 MMT. |
| Wheat | |
| Tighter stocks: July WASDE cut 2026/27 U.S. ending stocks 22 million bu. to 722 million and world stocks 2.58 MMT to 272.84 MMT. Small U.S. crop: USDA projects 1.536 billion bu. of wheat production, down 449 million bu. from 2025/26. Spring-wheat weather risk: NOAA favors above-normal temperatures across the northern and central Great Plains in late July. Less inventory outside China: The global stock decline is concentrated among major market participants, tightening exportable supplies despite large Chinese reserves. Black Sea escalation: Russian strikes have hit port infrastructure at Odesa and Pivdennyi and vessels near Ukrainian ports, while Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian shipping in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. The widening maritime war raises delay, freight and war-risk insurance costs. Russian export risk: About one-quarter of Russia’s grain exports move through the Sea of Azov. Prolonged restrictions at the Kerch Strait and Azov-Don channel could slow new-crop wheat loadings; SovEcon estimates Russia could undersupply the world market by 5-10 MMT of wheat if disruption lasts through much of the second half. Ukraine export risk: Ukraine’s sea corridor remains open, but attacks on Odesa-area ports and vessels could reduce shipowner appetite or force more wheat, corn and sunflower cargoes onto costlier, lower-capacity Danube and overland routes, shifting demand toward U.S., EU and other origins. | Harvest pressure: The U.S. winter wheat harvest was 67% complete on July 12 versus the 61% five-year average. Spring crop not historically poor: Spring wheat was 58% good/excellent, above the 54% rating a year earlier. Large competing exporters: USDA projects Russia at 88.5 MMT of production and 47.5 MMT of exports, with the EU at 136 MMT and 31 MMT. Lower U.S. export target: USDA projects 2026/27 U.S. exports at 775 million bu., well below the 908-million-bu. estimate for 2025/26. Rerouting capacity: Russia says cargoes can be shifted to deep-water Black Sea and Baltic ports, and exporters had time to redirect some July flows because the southern harvest started late. Ukraine corridor resilience: Ukrainian sea ports handled more than 20 MMT of grain in 2026 by mid-June despite repeated attacks, showing that shipments can continue under wartime conditions. Duration is decisive: If Azov restrictions prove brief and insurers continue covering Ukrainian voyages, the initial risk premium could fade; large Russian export supplies would then continue to cap wheat rallies. |
| Cotton | |
| World use exceeds output: USDA projects 2026/27 consumption at 121.95 million bales versus production of 117.26 million. Lower global stocks: World ending stocks are projected at 71.22 million bales, down 4.50 million from 2025/26. Weak U.S. condition ratings: Only 44% of the U.S. crop was good/excellent on July 12 versus 54% a year earlier; Texas was 30% good/excellent. High abandonment remains: USDA projects 7.54 million harvested acres from 9.85 million planted acres. | U.S. production was raised: July USDA report increased the 2026 crop 400,000 bales to 13.70 million and raised ending stocks 400,000 bales to 4.10 million. World production was raised: USDA increased 2026/27 global output 1.22 million bales and ending stocks 90,000 bales from June. Brazil was raised, not cut: Brazil’s production forecast increased 500,000 bales to 18.0 million; China’s forecast was unchanged at 33.5 million. Development is near normal: Cotton was 60% squaring versus 59% on average and 22% setting bolls, equal to the five-year average. |
| Rice | |
| Sharp U.S. acreage cut: July WASDE lowered planted area to 2.02 million acres and harvested area to 1.98 million. Much smaller U.S. crop: Production was cut 21.9 million cwt from June to 153.3 million cwt. Tighter U.S. stocks: Ending stocks were cut 11.9 million cwt to 30.9 million; long-grain stocks are projected at 17.7 million cwt. World use tops production: Global consumption of 542.80 MMT exceeds projected production of 537.18 MMT. | Ample global supply: USDA projects 2026/27 world supply at about 735.4 MMT and ending stocks at 192.58 MMT. Large Indian surplus: India is projected to produce 150 MMT, export 25 MMT and hold 51 MMT of ending stocks. Strong U.S. crop condition: Rice was rated 78% good/excellent on July 12. Development is ahead: The crop was 35% headed versus the 30% five-year average, bringing new-crop supply closer. |
| Cattle | |
| Structural supply tightness: The Jan. 1 U.S. cattle inventory was 86.2 million head; beef cows were down 1% to 27.6 million. Updated Cattle report coming July 24. Smaller calf crop: The 2025 calf crop was estimated at 32.9 million head, down 2%, slowing the path to larger beef supplies. Mexican cattle remain restricted: USDA continues to keep southern ports closed to livestock trade because of New World screwworm risk. Lower beef production: USDA cut its 2026 beef forecast 150 million lbs. to 25.288 billion and raised the annual steer-price forecast to $251.10/cwt. | Record-high import forecast: USDA projects 2026 beef imports at 6.059 billion lbs., about 12.5% above 2025 despite a 50-million-lb. July reduction. Lower export forecast: USDA trimmed 2026 beef exports 10 million lbs. to 2.331 billion, leaving more product in the domestic market. Imports cushion supply: USDA projects per-capita beef disappearance at 59.4 lbs., slightly above 59.2 lbs. in 2025. Demand-rationing risk: Exceptionally high cattle and retail beef prices leave consumption vulnerable to substitution toward cheaper proteins. |
| Hogs | |
| Breeding herd below 6 million: The June 1 breeding inventory was 5.88 million head, and total hog inventory was slightly below a year earlier at 73.7 million. Production forecasts trimmed: USDA lowered second-half 2026 pork production after downward revisions to December and March market-hog inventories. Export growth: USDA projects 2026 pork exports near 7.2 billion lbs., 3.8% above 2025. Limited 2027 expansion: USDA projects 2027 pork production only 0.6% above the 2026 forecast. | Production still rising: USDA projects 2026 pork output just under 28.0 billion lbs., 1.4% above 2025. High productivity: The June market-hog inventory was 67.8 million head, while pigs per litter remained historically strong at 11.87. Larger pork supplies: Increased production could outpace the modest gain in per-capita consumption, requiring lower prices or stronger exports to clear the market. Mexico demand softened: Weak shipments to Mexico prompted USDA to reduce its 2026 pork-export forecast, even though annual exports remain above 2025. |
