Trump Administration Faces Growing Pressure to Remove Moroccan Fertilizer Duties
Farm groups say phosphate tariffs have raised costs, tightened supplies, and hurt producer margins
The Trump administration is facing mounting pressure from major agricultural organizations, farm-state lawmakers, and fertilizer users to remove countervailing duties imposed on Moroccan phosphate fertilizer imports, with critics arguing the tariffs have significantly increased production costs for U.S. farmers while doing little to improve domestic supply conditions.
The issue has become increasingly important across the agricultural economy as crop producers grapple with weaker grain prices, elevated input costs, and renewed concerns about global fertilizer supply disruptions tied to Middle East instability and energy market volatility.
During a recent webinar hosted by the Illinois Soybean Association, Virginia Houston of the American Soybean Association said research from Texas A&M University found the duties increased diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices by 28.6% and raised overall phosphate fertilizer costs paid by farmers by an estimated $6.9 billion since the tariffs were enacted in 2021. Houston said the duties fundamentally altered U.S. fertilizer trade flows and reduced competition in the phosphate market. Before the tariffs were imposed, Moroccan phosphate fertilizer accounted for roughly half of U.S. phosphate imports in many years. Since then, those imports have fallen to less than 1% of total U.S. phosphate imports, sharply tightening supplies available to the domestic market.
Origins of the trade dispute. The conflict began after The Mosaic Company filed trade petitions alleging Moroccan phosphate producer OCP Group and Russian fertilizer suppliers benefited from unfair government subsidies that distorted global fertilizer markets.
The U.S. Commerce Department ultimately imposed countervailing duties on phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco and Russia in 2021. Supporters of the duties, including Mosaic and some domestic manufacturing advocates, argued the action was necessary to preserve domestic phosphate production capacity and protect U.S. fertilizer manufacturing jobs from subsidized foreign competition.
Agricultural groups, however, contend the tariffs instead reduced available supplies and contributed to a broad increase in phosphate fertilizer prices across the farm economy. The dispute has become one of the clearest examples of the political divide between agricultural users seeking lower input costs and domestic manufacturers seeking trade protections.
Why farmers are increasingly alarmed. The fertilizer issue is gaining urgency because farm profitability has weakened substantially over the past year. Corn and soybean prices have retreated from post-pandemic highs, while many production expenses remain historically elevated. Although nitrogen fertilizer prices have moderated from their 2022 peaks, phosphate prices remain comparatively expensive relative to pre-2021 levels.
Farm organizations argue the loss of Moroccan imports reduced market competition at precisely the wrong time for producers already dealing with tighter operating margins, elevated borrowing costs, higher machinery expenses, and weather-related uncertainty.
Phosphate fertilizer is particularly important for corn and soybean production throughout the Midwest, making price increases especially painful for large-scale row crop producers. Some agricultural economists argue the duties effectively allowed domestic phosphate producers greater pricing power because the removal of Moroccan imports sharply narrowed supply alternatives.
Meanwhile, farm groups say the impact extended beyond DAP prices alone, affecting broader phosphate fertilizer categories across the agricultural sector.
Trump administration explores possible action. President Donald Trump and senior administration officials have reportedly explored multiple options for suspending or removing the duties amid growing concern about food inflation and farm-sector financial stress.
Reports earlier this spring indicated White House officials examined whether executive authorities or emergency trade powers could be used to temporarily waive the tariffs. Administration officials have not publicly detailed what legal mechanism might ultimately be used, but discussions reportedly included temporary suspension authority, administrative review actions, emergency economic powers, and broader trade-related executive actions.
The issue is legally complex because countervailing duties are typically administered through quasi-judicial processes overseen by the Commerce Department and the U.S. International Trade Commission rather than through direct presidential decree. Still, the Trump administration has shown a willingness to aggressively use executive trade powers in other sectors, leading many farm groups to believe fertilizer duties could also become subject to presidential intervention.
Houston suggested executive action remains possible, noting during the webinar that administration officials had been “teasing that for a couple of months.” She added that Morocco would likely be able to restore shipments to the U.S. market relatively quickly if the duties were removed.
Congress increasingly drawn into debate. The issue has also begun attracting broader congressional attention, particularly from lawmakers representing major crop-producing states.
Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) and several Midwestern lawmakers introduced legislation earlier this year aimed at eliminating the Moroccan phosphate duties entirely. Farm-state lawmakers argue the tariffs have become counterproductive because they increase costs for producers already facing economic pressure from lower commodity prices and volatile export demand.
The fertilizer issue is increasingly being framed as part of a larger food inflation debate inside Washington, especially as policymakers search for ways to ease pressure on both consumers and producers.
Meanwhile, lawmakers supportive of domestic fertilizer manufacturing remain wary of removing trade protections they believe are necessary to prevent subsidized foreign competition from undermining U.S. production capacity. That political split has complicated efforts to find a compromise solution.
Global supply risks add new pressure. The fertilizer debate is also unfolding against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
Phosphate fertilizer production depends heavily on sulfur supplies, and sulfur markets have become increasingly volatile due to tensions in the Middle East and concerns about shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
Industry analysts warn that additional supply disruptions or energy price spikes could place renewed upward pressure on fertilizer prices later this year. As a result, many agricultural groups argue restoring Moroccan phosphate imports would provide an important buffer against future global supply shocks.
Some economists also contend that diversified fertilizer sourcing has become increasingly important after the severe market disruptions experienced following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Those disruptions exposed the vulnerability of global fertilizer supply chains and heightened concerns about overreliance on limited suppliers.
Broader political implications. The Moroccan phosphate dispute reflects a broader challenge facing the Trump administration as it balances competing political and economic priorities. On one hand, the administration has pursued aggressive trade enforcement policies and supported domestic manufacturing industries. Meanwhile, it has also sought to lower inflation pressures and support farmers facing weaker profitability. That balancing act has become more difficult as agricultural groups intensify pressure for immediate fertilizer relief while domestic producers continue defending the duties.
For now, the duties remain under formal administrative review through U.S. trade agencies, but the growing political attention surrounding the issue suggests the fertilizer dispute could become a much larger agricultural policy battle heading into the second half of 2026.
| Internal divisions slow White House decision on Moroccan fertilizer dutiesCompeting priorities inside the Trump administration have delayed action on phosphate tariffs despite mounting pressure from farm groups seeking lower fertilizer costs The reason the White House has not yet announced a suspension or elimination of countervailing duties (CVDs) on Moroccan phosphate fertilizer imports largely appears to stem from deep internal divisions within the Trump administration over trade policy, domestic manufacturing protection, fertilizer affordability, and the political implications of intervening in an active trade case. While President Donald Trump has reportedly expressed openness to removing or suspending the duties to lower farm input costs and ease food inflation pressures, several factions inside the administration appear to disagree over both the economic impact and the legal precedent such a move would create. At the center of the debate are competing interests between farm-state advocates seeking lower fertilizer prices and officials aligned with domestic manufacturing protections and traditional trade enforcement mechanisms. Rollins reportedly skeptical about major market impact. One of the more important dynamics slowing action appears to involve USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, who according to multiple agriculture and industry sources has privately questioned whether eliminating the Moroccan duties would materially reduce fertilizer prices for farmers in the near term. That skepticism reflects a broader debate inside the administration over how much impact the tariffs actually had on overall phosphate pricing versus how much of the inflation was caused by broader global fertilizer disruptions. USDA economists and some administration officials reportedly concluded that while Moroccan imports collapsed after the duties were imposed, global fertilizer prices were also being pushed higher by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, natural gas volatility, sulfur shortages, shipping disruptions, and broader supply tightness. As a result, some USDA officials appear to believe removing the duties now may not produce the dramatic decline in fertilizer prices that farm groups are promising. That position sharply conflicts with groups such as the American Soybean Association and the National Corn Growers Association, which argue the tariffs directly reduced competition and significantly increased domestic phosphate prices. Research cited by ASA from Texas A&M University estimated the duties increased DAP fertilizer prices by nearly 29% and added roughly $6.9 billion in phosphate costs for U.S. farmers since 2021.Rollins also appears sensitive to the political optics surrounding fertilizer trade policy. USDA has simultaneously been trying to defend domestic agricultural production capacity while also avoiding policies that could be perceived as undermining U.S. manufacturing sectors. Sources familiar with the discussions say Rollins has been reluctant to fully endorse a policy change unless there is strong evidence farmers would see immediate and measurable financial relief. Trade hawks inside administration oppose intervention. Another major obstacle appears to involve officials aligned with the administration’s broader trade enforcement agenda. Some White House and trade officials reportedly worry that directly intervening to suspend a legally established countervailing duty case could undermine broader Trump administration arguments about unfair foreign subsidies and aggressive trade enforcement. The Moroccan phosphate duties originated after The Mosaic Company alleged Morocco’s OCP Group benefited from unfair government subsidies. Officials aligned with tougher trade enforcement reportedly fear suspending the duties could weaken future U.S. trade cases involving steel, chemicals, manufacturing, and other politically sensitive sectors. That concern is especially important because the Trump administration has simultaneously pursued an aggressive tariff and trade enforcement strategy globally. Some administration officials reportedly believe selectively waiving trade penalties for one politically connected sector could create pressure for exemptions elsewhere. White House economic advisers more supportive of relief. Meanwhile, several White House economic advisers reportedly have been more supportive of suspending the duties, particularly those focused on inflation and food prices. Officials close to National Economic Council discussions have argued that even modest fertilizer price relief could help improve farm margins and reduce broader inflationary pressures across the food supply chain. That faction reportedly views the fertilizer issue through a macroeconomic lens rather than primarily through a trade enforcement lens. Some officials have also argued that restoring Moroccan imports would improve supply resiliency at a time when global fertilizer markets remain vulnerable to geopolitical shocks tied to the Middle East and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Greer’s reported recusal added complexity. Another factor complicating the issue reportedly involved U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who according to several Washington trade sources recused himself from at least portions of the Moroccan phosphate matter due to prior legal work connected to the case during his time in private practice. Greer previously worked at the law firm King & Spalding, which represented interests tied to fertilizer trade matters, including parties involved in phosphate trade litigation. Because of federal ethics rules governing conflicts involving former clients and prior legal representation, sources indicate Greer stepped back from direct involvement in certain discussions related to the Moroccan phosphate duties. That reportedly created additional procedural complications because USTR would ordinarily play a central coordinating role in any major trade-policy adjustment involving tariffs or countervailing duties. Without full USTR leadership engagement, some of the policy coordination reportedly shifted toward the White House, Commerce Department, USDA, and economic advisers, potentially slowing consensus-building inside the administration. Legal constraints also limit White House flexibility. The administration also faces significant legal complications because countervailing duties are not simple discretionary tariffs. They are part of a quasi-judicial trade enforcement process overseen by the Commerce Department and the U.S. International Trade Commission. As a result, outright cancellation of the duties by presidential proclamation could face legal challenges unless tied to a recognized statutory authority or emergency action. Administration lawyers reportedly have debated whether emergency economic powers could be invoked, whether temporary suspension authority exists, whether Commerce could administratively revisit the duties, or whether congressional action would ultimately provide a cleaner legal pathway.That legal uncertainty appears to be another reason the White House has continued discussing the issue without formally announcing a decision. Farm groups growing increasingly frustrated. For agricultural organizations, the delays have become increasingly frustrating because many believe the administration already agrees philosophically that fertilizer costs are too high. Farm groups argue the collapse in Moroccan phosphate imports after 2021 clearly reduced supply competition and contributed to sustained phosphate inflation. Before the duties were imposed, Morocco accounted for roughly half of U.S. phosphate imports in many years. Since the tariffs took effect, those imports have fallen to less than 1% of total imports. Producer groups argue that restoring Moroccan access would likely increase competition relatively quickly, particularly because Morocco retains large export capacity and existing relationships with U.S. buyers. Bottom line: However, administration officials skeptical of major price impacts reportedly believe global fertilizer fundamentals — not simply Moroccan supply access — remain the dominant driver of current phosphate pricing. That disagreement appears to be the central reason the White House has continued signaling interest in action while still stopping short of formally lifting the duties. |
