Trump: Farmers Will Be Happy About Ag Deals, But Gives Few Details 

Will take days or weeks before details emerge from Trump/Xi summit

Link: Daines Sees “Boeing, Beef and Beans” Deal Emerging from
         Trump/Xi Summit

Link: Trump/Xi Summit Keeps Taiwan in the Background —
         Publicly, at Least

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, May 9
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, May 9

TOP STORIES
 

— Trade signals still murky after Trump’s Beijing visit: Trivium China said major questions remain unresolved following President Donald Trump’s Beijing summit, including tariffs, rare earth exports, and the proposed U.S./China “Board of Trade,” leaving uncertainty over whether the trip produced meaningful trade stabilization.

— Taiwan emerges as key flashpoint in Trump/Xi talks: Trump said he made no commitments to Xi Jinping on Taiwan and is still weighing a $14 billion arms package for Taipei, underscoring Taiwan’s central role in escalating U.S./China strategic tensions.

— Trump signals limited Iran pressure ask to China: Trump said he did not directly ask Xi to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz but indicated he expects China to support keeping the waterway open amid renewed geopolitical tensions.

— Ag deal signals emerge from Beijing: Trump and USTR Jamieson Greer pointed to potential multi-billion-dollar Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products, though traders remain frustrated by the lack of concrete details.

— Soybeans retreat after summit disappointment: Soybean futures fell sharply as traders reacted negatively to the absence of new Chinese soybean buying commitments beyond previously announced agreements.

— ASA pushes for more China soybean buying: The American Soybean Association urged continued progress on Chinese soybean purchases and called for greater long-term trade certainty for U.S. farmers.

— Boeing order questions cloud summit trade wins: Trump cited a major Boeing aircraft purchase agreement with China, but conflicting figures ranging from 200 to 750 aircraft created uncertainty about the scale of the deal.

— Thucydides trap looms over Trump/Xi summit: Analysts warned that despite positive summit optics, deeper strategic rivalry between the U.S. and China over Taiwan, trade, and technology remains unresolved.

— Trump defends Chinese ownership of U.S. farmland: Trump argued restricting Chinese farmland purchases could damage farm values while acknowledging ongoing national security concerns.

— Summit conclusion: Xi pushes ‘new relationship’ framework with Trump: Xi Jinping used the summit to promote a long-term “constructive strategic stability” framework designed to reduce future trade and technology conflicts with Washington.

— Saudi floats regional Iran security framework: Saudi Arabia is reportedly exploring a broader Gulf non-aggression framework with Iran aimed at reducing regional instability and protecting energy infrastructure.

— Cuba’s energy crisis boils over: Severe fuel shortages and rolling blackouts triggered protests in Cuba as officials admitted the country has exhausted diesel and fuel oil reserves.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today: Global equity markets and U.S. futures fell sharply as rising Treasury yields, elevated oil prices, and Iran conflict concerns intensified fears of persistent inflation and higher interest rates.

— Treasury yields surge on inflation, Iran war concerns: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.5% as investors priced out Fed rate cuts and increasingly considered the possibility of a rate hike later this year.

— Equities yesterday: Major U.S. stock indexes closed higher Thursday, led by gains in the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

AG ECONOMY

— Tenth district ranchland values surge to record highs: Kansas City Fed data showed ranchland values climbed sharply on strong cattle markets, while crop producers continued facing financial stress from weak grain margins.

AGRIBUSINESS

— Tyson’s beef business under pressure: Tyson Foods said tight cattle supplies continue squeezing beef margins, even as stronger chicken demand helps offset losses.

— Corteva details separation strategy, seed technology push and crop protection outlook: Corteva executives outlined plans to split the company into two businesses while emphasizing gene editing, hybrid wheat, licensing growth, and Brazil expansion.

AG MARKETS

— Grain futures slide overnight on trade, weather pressure: Corn, soybean, and wheat futures moved lower overnight as traders reacted to disappointing summit developments and improving Midwest weather forecasts.

— Global grain markets: International grain and oilseed prices remained firm amid Black Sea uncertainty, weather risks, and ongoing geopolitical disruptions tied to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.

— USDA sees another strong grain transportation year ahead: USDA projected another year of heavy grain transportation demand as large corn and soybean supplies continue pressuring storage and logistics systems.

— Brazil raises record soybean crop outlook: Brazil’s Conab raised its soybean crop forecast above 180 million metric tons, reinforcing expectations for abundant global soybean supplies.

— Whey boom reshapes dairy markets: Rising demand for whey protein tied to sports nutrition and GLP-1 drugs is reshaping global dairy pricing and processing investments.

— Agriculture markets yesterday: Grain, cotton, and livestock futures broadly declined Thursday, led by steep losses in soybeans and wheat.

YEAR-ROUND E15

— Year-round E15 shows net gains for corn and soybean farmers: An NCGA-backed study said permanent nationwide E15 sales would improve farm returns and reduce government farm program costs.

— E15 economic forecasts diverge sharply over adoption assumptions: Competing E15 studies continue to disagree over future ethanol demand, soybean impacts, and infrastructure growth assumptions.

EPA REGULATIONS

— EPA delays Biden-era vehicle rules: EPA proposed delaying stricter vehicle emissions standards by two years, arguing the original timeline relied on unrealistic electric vehicle adoption expectations.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Friday: Oil rally intensifies on Hormuz risks: Brent crude climbed near $109 per barrel as Iran tensions, shipping disruptions, and fading ceasefire hopes pushed oil toward a weekly surge.

— Thursday: Oil market holds firm as Hormuz risks continue to dominate trade: Oil prices stayed elevated as limited tanker traffic resumed through the Strait of Hormuz while broader geopolitical risks remained high.

TRADE POLICY

— House pushes Trump team on China cotton tariffs: Bipartisan lawmakers urged the administration to eliminate China’s cotton tariffs and secure stronger purchase commitments during trade talks.

USDA REORGANIZATION

— Senate Democrats challenge USDA REE reorganization: Senate Democrats led by Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) warned USDA’s proposed REE restructuring could weaken research capacity and economic data services.

FOOD AID

— USDA expands Food for Peace funding under ‘America First’ rules: Devex reported USDA’s revamped Food for Peace program now prioritizes U.S. commodities and shipping costs, drawing criticism from aid experts.

LABOR & IMMIGRATION POLICY

— Judge rejects bid to block lower farmworker wages: A federal judge denied an injunction request against revised H-2A wage calculations, allowing lower wage rates for some agricultural jobs to remain in effect.

CONGRESS

— Senate moves to withhold lawmakers’ pay during shutdowns: The Senate approved a resolution delaying senators’ paychecks during future government shutdowns to increase pressure for funding agreements.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Severe thunderstorms are expected across Iowa and parts of the Plains while heat builds across the central U.S. and cooler unsettled weather spreads westward.

— Western Corn Belt swings from drought to deluge before returning dry: Heavy storms are forecast to recharge moisture across parts of the Corn Belt and northern Plains before another drier pattern returns later in the month.
 

—Equities today: U.S. equity futures are sharply lower as rising Treasury yields and inflation concerns pressure stocks following the Trump/Xi summit.Global equities declined as investors became increasingly uneasy about the economic fallout from the prolonged Iran conflict, particularly fears that rising energy prices could intensify inflationary pressures and keep interest rates higher for longer.

Trump’s suggestion that the U.S. does not need the Strait of Hormuz to remain open “at all” — following a series of discussions with President Xi Jinping that yielded little apparent support for U.S. Gulf-region objectives — added further upward pressure to global crude prices. The comments helped extend this week’s rally to roughly 9%, with the impact rippling across markets in Asia and Europe.

U.S. Treasury yields climbed to their highest levels in nearly a year during overnight trading, tracking a broader global fixed-income selloff driven by mounting inflation concerns, elevated crude oil prices, and disappointment over the lack of major breakthroughs at President Donald Trump’s two-day summit in China. If Treasury bond yields extend their upward climb, analysts say it will be difficult for stocks to resume their pace of second-quarter gains.

In Asia, Japan -2%. Hong Kong -1.6%. China -1%. India -0.2%.

In Europe, at midday, London -1.5%. Paris -1.6%. Frankfurt -1.7%.

—Treasury yields surge on inflation, Iran war concerns

Markets price out Fed cuts as inflation pressures intensify

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note climbed above 4.5% on Friday, reaching its highest level in nearly a year as investors reacted to mounting inflation pressures tied to the Iran war and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates later this year. The move reflected a broad selloff in global fixed-income markets as traders reassessed the outlook for inflation, monetary policy, and geopolitical risk.

Economic data released earlier this week reinforced those concerns. U.S. wholesale inflation accelerated in April at its fastest pace since 2022, while consumer prices posted their largest increase since 2023, driven in part by higher energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict and disruptions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, retail sales growth slowed in line with expectations but continued to point to resilient consumer demand despite elevated borrowing costs and persistent inflation pressures.

Markets have now fully priced out any Federal Reserve rate cuts for 2026, with some traders increasingly positioning for the possibility of a rate hike by December if inflation continues to accelerate. Higher crude oil prices and concerns over sustained energy supply disruptions have added to fears that inflation could remain elevated longer than previously expected.

Investors were also closely monitoring the second day of high-level talks between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, with markets looking for signs of progress on trade, energy security, and broader geopolitical tensions.

—Equities yesterday: 

—Tenth district ranchland values surge to record highs

Federal Reserve survey shows cattle strength boosting land markets while crop-sector stress persists

A new report (link) by Ty Kreitman for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City said ranchland values across the Tenth Federal Reserve District climbed sharply in the first quarter of 2026, driven by continued strength in the cattle sector, while crop producers continued to face narrow profit margins and elevated financial pressure. The Federal Reserve survey found ranchland values rose nearly 11% from a year earlier to record highs, while cropland values posted modest gains after stabilizing over the past year. 

The report noted that strong cattle revenues, government assistance payments, and historically high farmland values continued to support the broader farm economy despite ongoing weakness in grain production margins. Lenders also reported that lower farm loan interest rates and Farmer Bridge Assistance program payments helped stabilize credit conditions.

According to the survey, non-irrigated cropland values increased about 2.5% year-over-year, while irrigated cropland values rose roughly 4%. Ranchland cash rents also hit new highs, climbing about 2%, although cropland rents softened by roughly 1.5%.

The Federal Reserve survey also showed gradual deterioration in farm finances continued across much of the District. Loan demand remained elevated, repayment rates weakened modestly, and many producers continued to carry higher operating debt following several years of tight crop margins. Roughly 20% of borrowers were reported to have increased carryover debt compared to a year earlier.

Bankers surveyed across Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, and Oklahoma repeatedly pointed to the divide between livestock and grain operations. Several lenders warned that grain farmers could face “serious trouble” without stronger commodity prices or lower input costs, while diversified operations with cattle exposure generally remained profitable.

The Tenth Federal Reserve District includes Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Colorado, Wyoming, northern New Mexico, and western Missouri.

—Tyson’s beef business under pressure

FoodNavigator-USA reports tight cattle supplies continue squeezing margins as Tyson cuts capacity and consumers shift to cheaper proteins.

According to FoodNavigator-USA, Tyson Foods’ beef business remains under severe pressure from historically tight U.S. cattle supplies, forcing the company to reduce production capacity, close facilities, and absorb rising livestock costs even as retail beef prices remain elevated. Tyson executives said the current cattle cycle — with the U.S. herd at a 75-year low — continues to limit available animals for slaughter, while higher beef prices are beginning to push cost-conscious consumers toward chicken and pork alternatives.

Tyson reported beef volumes declined 13.1% during the quarter while average beef prices increased 11.5%, reflecting efforts to offset sharply higher cattle procurement costs. Company officials said the second quarter represented a “transitional” period as Tyson adjusted its operational footprint to align with lower cattle availability. Tyson has already closed its Lexington, Neb., beef plant and reduced operations in Amarillo, Texas, moves tied directly to the prolonged supply shortage.

The supply squeeze stems from years of drought, high feed costs, and ranchers liquidating cattle rather than retaining heifers for herd rebuilding. Reuters reported cattle inventories have fallen to their lowest level in roughly 75 years, contributing to beef price inflation that has significantly outpaced broader food inflation. Tyson CFO Curt Calaway described herd rebuilding efforts as “spotty and regional,” suggesting relief may still be years away.

Meanwhile, Tyson’s chicken segment has emerged as the company’s primary earnings driver as consumers increasingly trade down to lower-cost proteins. Reuters and MarketWatch reported Tyson’s poultry business posted strong margins and helped offset steep losses in beef operations. Tyson still expects its beef segment to post substantial operating losses in fiscal 2026 despite broader company earnings improvements.

—Corteva details separation strategy, seed technology push and crop protection outlook

Executives outline breakup timeline, gene-editing ambitions, Brazil growth plans and crop protection recovery at BMO conference

At the 21st Annual Global Farm to Market Conference hosted by BMO Capital Markets, Corteva Inc. executives laid out an expansive vision for the company’s future as it prepares to separate into two standalone businesses later this year. The discussion featured Corteva CEO Charles Magro and Executive Vice President and CFO David Johnson, with questions led by Joel Jackson of BMO Capital Markets Equity Research. Executives addressed the separation process, global crop conditions, Brazil expansion plans, gene-editing technology, hybrid wheat development, crop protection pricing dynamics and broader industry consolidation trends.

Strong start to 2026 and agricultural outlook

Magro opened the discussion by describing a stronger-than-expected start to 2026, noting that Corteva delivered double-digit growth across both its seed and crop protection businesses during the first quarter. He said demand for grain and oilseed crops remains solid globally, with biofuel demand expected to reach another record in 2026 after already setting records in 2025. Higher crop prices have modestly improved farm economics, while demand for premium seed technology has remained extremely strong. Magro pointed to the company’s top-performing corn hybrids being completely sold out this spring as evidence that growers continue prioritizing productivity and yield despite elevated input costs. He added that Corteva maintained its full-year guidance of roughly $4.1 billion and remains comfortable with that outlook.

The executives also discussed current agricultural market conditions and acreage expectations for 2026. Magro said Corteva expects approximately 95 million acres of corn and 85 million acres of soybeans to be planted in the United States this season. While higher energy prices tied to Middle East tensions have increased fertilizer and fuel costs, he said most U.S. farmers had already secured fertilizer supplies before the recent escalation in energy markets. However, Magro said Latin America remains an important area to monitor because elevated energy prices could eventually alter crop economics and acreage decisions there, particularly for Brazil’s safrinha corn crop.

Separation into Vylor and New Corteva

A major portion of the conversation focused on Corteva’s planned separation into two independent companies — the seed and genetics company Vylor and the remaining crop protection-focused Corteva. Magro stressed that management views the move as a “separation” rather than a “breakup,” joking that “we still like each other.” He argued that the crop protection and seed businesses are increasingly diverging strategically as agriculture evolves toward more open technology systems and collaborative development models. According to Magro, both crop protection chemistry and biotechnology now require enormous development costs and long regulatory timelines, creating incentives for companies to collaborate more broadly to reduce risk and accelerate innovation. He said the separation would allow both companies to pursue more partnerships and unlock additional opportunities that are more difficult to execute under a combined structure.

Executives said the separation remains on schedule for completion during the fourth quarter of 2026. Magro noted that Corteva has already filed its initial Form 10 with the SEC, appointed Luke Kissam as CEO of New Corteva, established executive leadership teams, selected headquarters locations and unveiled the Vylor name for the seed business. He said the process has proceeded smoothly so far without major complications.

Johnson addressed concerns from investors about the financial costs of separating the businesses. He said Corteva initially estimated roughly $100 million in net dis-synergies from the transaction, but management now believes the actual figure may trend somewhat lower. Johnson explained that the seed and crop protection businesses already function largely independently, with separate ERP systems and manufacturing infrastructure already in place. He added that both companies are expected to emerge from the separation with investment-grade balance sheets and strong free cash flow generation.

Brazil and Latin America growth strategy

Brazil and Latin America emerged repeatedly as one of Corteva’s most important long-term growth opportunities. Magro acknowledged that Corteva remains underrepresented in the Latin American soybean market relative to its positions in other major seed markets globally. He said the company is aggressively expanding rollout of its Conkesta E3 soybean technology platform in the region and expects 2026 to mark the first year the technology surpasses double-digit market penetration in Latin America. Corteva ultimately hopes to capture roughly one-third of the Brazilian soybean market by the end of the decade.

The company also expects modest pricing increases for Brazilian corn technology while soybean seed pricing is expected to remain roughly flat to slightly higher year-over-year. Magro said Corteva’s order book in Brazil remains strong despite concerns about input inflation and elevated energy prices.

Crop protection recovery and generic pricing trends

The conversation also turned toward the global crop protection market, which has faced several difficult years amid generic oversupply and pricing pressure. Magro said rising energy prices are beginning to lift costs for crop protection actives, especially from Chinese suppliers shipping into Brazil. While Corteva expects approximately a $20 million crop protection headwind during the second half of 2026 from those higher costs, Magro suggested the tighter supply environment could eventually help stabilize pricing across the industry. He said management originally expected 2026 to represent a recovery year driven mainly by higher volumes while pricing remained weak, but recent developments may improve the pricing outlook sooner than anticipated.

Johnson added that new crop protection products posted roughly 20% growth during the first quarter and that pricing for newer technologies remains stable to slightly positive. He said those trends reflect growers’ continued willingness to pay for differentiated technologies that improve productivity.

Licensing expansion and Bayer agreement

Executives also highlighted seed licensing as a major long-term earnings opportunity for Vylor. Magro said the corn and soybean licensing market across the Americas represents an approximately $4 billion addressable market. Corteva expects to generate roughly $1 billion in net licensing revenue over the next decade, helped in part by its recently finalized agreement with Bayer AG. The agreement gives Corteva earlier access to lucrative triple-stack corn trait markets combining herbicide tolerance with above-ground and below-ground insect protection. Magro said demand currently exceeds supply as Corteva works to expand parent seed production for more than 100 U.S. licensees.

Magro added that 2026 will mark the first year Corteva becomes “royalty positive,” which management views as a major milestone for the licensing platform.

Gene editing and future seed technology

One of the most forward-looking parts of the fireside chat centered on gene-editing technology and Corteva’s broader seed innovation strategy. Magro argued that gene editing could ultimately prove more transformative than biotechnology was 25 years ago. He said the technology has the potential to dramatically improve yields, disease resistance, insect resistance and nutritional characteristics while also reducing chemical applications. Corteva plans to commercialize a gene-edited “disease super locus” corn hybrid in 2028, which Magro described as a major step toward embedding extensive disease resistance directly into crop genetics.

Magro also said gene editing could fundamentally reshape how seed technology is valued and priced. He explained that traditional seed pricing models are built around incremental yield improvements, but future gene-edited products may deliver far broader economic benefits by eliminating fungicide sprays, improving crop oil content for biofuels and opening entirely new revenue streams for growers. He framed the technology not only as a business opportunity, but also as a major advancement for global food security.

Hybrid wheat development

Another major technology initiative discussed during the session was Corteva’s push into hybrid wheat. Magro said the company plans a limited U.S. launch in 2027 using a newly patented hybrid wheat production system that Corteva believes finally solves the economic challenges that historically prevented hybrid wheat from gaining traction commercially. According to Magro, early hybrid wheat varieties are showing yield improvements of 10% to 15%, with further gains expected as breeding programs mature. He said the economics now work because Corteva’s proprietary production system significantly lowers seed production costs, allowing farmers to achieve attractive returns from the higher-yielding seed.

Magro emphasized the global implications of hybrid wheat technology, noting that wheat remains the world’s largest row crop and accounts for approximately 20% of humanity’s caloric intake. He argued that improving wheat productivity could have major implications for food security, especially in more vulnerable regions of the world.

Industry consolidation and M&A outlook

Toward the end of the session, Jackson questioned executives about broader consolidation trends across the agricultural input sector, referencing strategic reviews and restructuring efforts occurring at multiple major agribusiness firms. Magro responded that New Corteva will emerge with strong margins, significant free cash flow and a multibillion-dollar crop protection pipeline that includes seven new active ingredients expected to launch over the next decade alongside an expanding biologicals portfolio. While he said organic growth remains the primary focus, Magro acknowledged the company would possess the financial flexibility to participate in acquisitions or consolidation opportunities if attractive assets become available.

Throughout the conversation, both executives repeatedly emphasized that innovation, collaboration and productivity gains for growers remain the core strategic themes driving Corteva’s future direction as the company prepares to enter its next phase as two independent agricultural technology businesses.

—Grain futures slide overnight on trade, weather pressure

Soybeans and wheat lead declines as traders weigh Trump/Xi summit fallout, improving Midwest moisture outlook, and broader macroeconomic uncertainty

Overnight grain markets traded sharply lower across most major contracts as traders continued to digest limited agricultural detail emerging from the summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, while favorable weather forecasts across portions of the Corn Belt added additional pressure to prices.

July corn futures fell 5 3/4 cents to $4.61 3/4 per bushel, with the market pressured by improving rainfall prospects across parts of the western Corn Belt and ongoing long liquidation ahead of the weekend. Traders also continued to monitor export competitiveness and broader macroeconomic sentiment as outside markets remained volatile due to rising crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions tied to the Iran conflict.

The soybean complex led the overnight weakness. July soybeans dropped 12 1/4 cents to $11.80 1/4 per bushel as market participants expressed disappointment over the lack of concrete new Chinese purchase announcements following the Trump/Xi meetings in Beijing. While U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated China could commit to “double-digit billions” in U.S. agricultural purchases annually, traders appeared to want more specific details regarding soybean commitments and implementation timelines.

July soybean meal futures declined $2.40 to $330.10 per short ton, following weakness in soybeans and continued uncertainty surrounding Chinese feed demand. July soybean oil futures slipped 8 points to 73.58 cents per pound, though losses there were comparatively limited as strength in global crude oil markets continued to provide underlying support to vegetable oil values.

Wheat futures posted some of the steepest declines overnight amid improving harvest expectations and ongoing pressure from global competition. July Chicago soft red winter wheat futures fell 10 cents to $6.48 per bushel, while July Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures dropped 11 cents to $6.94 1/4. Forecasts calling for periodic rains across portions of the Plains improved near-term production expectations in some areas, although drought concerns remain in western Kansas and portions of the southern Plains.

Markets also continued monitoring outside financial markets, where rising Treasury yields and elevated energy prices reinforced concerns that inflation pressures could remain sticky, potentially limiting the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year.

—Global grain markets

International wheat, corn and oilseed prices remain firm amid weather concerns, Black Sea uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical risk tied to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions 

European milling wheat futures on Euronext (MATIF) were trading near €216/metric ton for September 2026 delivery as of Friday, equivalent to roughly $242/metric ton or about $6.59/bushel U.S. equivalent. Russian 12.5% protein milling wheat FOB values were assessed around $240-$242/metric ton, while U.S. Gulf SRW wheat export values were near $246-$250/metric ton FOB.

Black Sea corn FOB values were near $201-$204/metric ton, while U.S. Gulf corn export prices were quoted around $220-$221/metric ton FOB. That places Black Sea corn at roughly $5.10/bushel U.S. equivalent versus about $5.60/bushel at the Gulf. Argentina FOB corn values were reported near $210/metric ton.

Chinese Dalian corn and soybean markets were mixed overnight as traders monitored potential U.S.-China agricultural purchase agreements following the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing. Soybean futures globally remained under pressure from expectations for large South American supplies despite renewed Chinese buying interest in U.S. agricultural products.

Malaysian palm oil prices remained elevated near 4,420 ringgit/metric ton, equivalent to roughly $1,015/metric ton, supported by tight edible oil supplies and continued concerns about freight disruptions in the Middle East. That compares with U.S. soybean oil futures near 75 cents/lb, or approximately $1,653/metric ton equivalent.

International Grain Prices and U.S. Equivalency

Sources: European Commission grain dashboard, USDA FAS market data, and international commodity market reporting.

—USDA sees another strong grain transportation year ahead

USDA projects large corn and soybean crops for MY 2026/27, keeping pressure on rail, barge, truck, and export logistics despite slightly lower overall grain supplies from record 2025/26 levels.

According to USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates highlighted in USDA’s Grain Transportation Report, U.S. grain transportation demand is expected to remain strong in marketing year 2026/27 as large corn and soybean supplies continue to strain storage and shipping systems during harvest. USDA projected production at 16.0 billion bushels of corn, 4.4 billion bushels of soybeans, and 1.6 billion bushels of wheat. Corn production was raised from USDA’s February outlook, while wheat production was lowered sharply and would mark the smallest wheat crop since 1972 if realized.

Combined corn, soybean, and wheat production is projected at 22.0 billion bushels, roughly 5% below last year’s record output but generally in line with the prior three-year average. USDA noted that corn and soybean supplies available this fall — including beginning stocks and new production — are projected at 22.9 billion bushels, only 2.6 billion bushels below total available grain storage capacity as of December 2025.

That relatively tight storage cushion suggests continued heavy reliance on transportation networks to move grain quickly during harvest. USDA said the projected storage surplus is slightly larger than last year’s but remains well below the recent three-year average, implying continued above-average pressure on railroads, barges, trucks, and export terminals during peak shipping periods.

USDA’s Grain Transportation Report concluded that transportation demand in MY 2026/27 should remain robust, although likely below the record-setting pace seen in MY 2025/26.

—Brazil raises record soybean crop outlook

Conab sees 2025-26 production climbing above 180 MMT as global supply competition intensifies

Brazil’s government crop agency, Conab, raised its forecast for the country’s 2025-26 soybean harvest to a record 180.1 million metric tons, up from its prior estimate of 179.15 MMT, reinforcing expectations for another year of massive global soybean supplies. The revised projection further solidifies Brazil’s position as the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter at a time when global oilseed markets are closely watching Chinese demand, U.S./China trade negotiations, and expanding South American production capacity.

The larger crop estimate reflects favorable early-season conditions, continued acreage expansion, and improving yield expectations across major producing states. The outlook adds additional pressure to global soybean prices, particularly as traders remain uncertain whether China will make soybean purchases beyond previously discussed commitments under ongoing U.S./China trade arrangements.

Meanwhile, the prospect of another record Brazilian crop underscores intensifying export competition for U.S. soybeans during the 2026-27 marketing year. Brazil has continued to benefit from infrastructure improvements, competitive currency dynamics, and strong Chinese demand, allowing it to steadily expand market share in recent years.

Analysts also note that a crop above 180 MMT would provide Brazil with substantial exportable supplies well into 2027, potentially limiting upside price momentum in Chicago soybean futures unless weather threats emerge in the U.S. growing season.

—Whey boom reshapes dairy markets

Protein demand drives new volatility across butter, cheese and milk prices

Heavy investment in cheese and whey processing is reshaping global dairy commodity markets as soaring demand for high-protein nutrition products redirects milk flows and changes pricing dynamics across the sector, according to reporting by Teodora Lyubomirova for FoodNavigator-USA and DairyReporter. Analysts say whey protein — once treated largely as a low-value cheese byproduct — has become one of dairy’s most valuable ingredients amid booming consumer demand tied to sports nutrition, wellness trends and GLP-1 weight-loss drugs.

The shift is pressuring traditional dairy commodities, particularly butter. Strong milk production and expanding whey-processing capacity have contributed to larger butter inventories and increased price volatility. Analysts cited in the report said more milk is increasingly being directed into cheese and whey production, leaving butter and milk powder markets more exposed to swings in supply and demand.

Cheese markets, meanwhile, have remained more resilient because global cheese consumption continues to expand both in volume and value. Processors are aggressively investing in cheese plants because whey extraction significantly improves margins, especially as whey protein concentrate and isolate prices have surged to record highs globally.

Industry analysts say demand for functional nutrition products — including ready-to-drink protein beverages, high-protein yogurts and supplements — is accelerating the transition. Reuters recently reported whey protein concentrate prices have climbed nearly 90% over the past year, driven in part by consumers using GLP-1 medications who are seeking higher protein intake to preserve muscle mass during weight loss.

The changing economics are also triggering major global investments in dairy processing infrastructure. Companies including Arla Foods, FrieslandCampina and Dairy Farmers of America are expanding whey and protein-processing operations to capture growing demand for premium dairy ingredients.

—Agriculture markets yesterday:

—Year-round E15 shows net gains for corn and soybean farmers

NCGA-backed analysis says expanded E15 demand could strengthen crop returns while lowering government farm program costs

The National Corn Growers Association said a new economic analysis (link) shows year-round nationwide E15 sales would provide a net positive financial benefit for farmers who grow both corn and soybeans, while also reducing federal farm program outlays. 

The study, prepared for NCGA by World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services, comes as legislation authorizing permanent year-round E15 sales moves to the U.S. Senate for consideration.

According to the analysis, a representative farm with equal corn and soybean acreage would realize an average net gain of more than $5 per acre over the projection period. The report said expanded E15 availability would increase corn demand, provide positive support for corn prices, reduce Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage (ARC/PLC) payments, and improve combined net returns across both crops.

The study incorporated updated Renewable Fuel Standard volume assumptions along with revised industry expectations for E15 market adoption rates. NCGA argued the findings reinforce the case that broader E15 access would deliver market-based support for rural economies at a time when many producers are operating under tight financial margins.

Meanwhile, the report also emphasized potential taxpayer savings through lower ARC/PLC program expenditures as stronger corn demand and improved pricing reduce the need for government support payments. NCGA framed the proposal as both an agricultural growth policy and a cost-saving measure tied to expanded domestic biofuel consumption.
 

—EPA delays Biden-era vehicle rules

Agency says proposed pause would lower vehicle costs and ease pressure on automakers shifting away from EV investments 

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Thursday proposed delaying compliance deadlines for the Biden-era Tier 4 vehicle emissions standards by two years, pushing implementation for light- and medium-duty vehicles to model year 2029. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said the move would save more than $1.7 billion and reduce vehicle costs for consumers, arguing the original standards were based on overly aggressive assumptions about electric vehicle adoption that have not materialized.

The proposal would allow automakers to continue complying with existing Tier 3 emissions standards for model years 2027 and 2028 while EPA undertakes a broader review of the Tier 4 framework. The Trump administration contends the Biden-era rules became “unattainable” as consumer demand for EVs weakened and manufacturers scaled back electric vehicle investments. EPA cited recent decisions by General Motors, Ford Motor Company, and Stellantis to reduce or reconsider portions of their EV production strategies.

Zeldin framed the proposal as part of a broader deregulatory agenda focused on restoring consumer choice and protecting U.S. auto manufacturing jobs. The agency said Tier 3 standards already deliver emissions reductions of up to 80% and argued additional time is needed to phase in stricter standards more realistically. EPA also indicated it plans a second phase of review that could reconsider Tier 4 emissions targets, implementation schedules, and testing procedures.

The announcement continues a wider Trump administration rollback of Biden-era vehicle emissions policies. EPA highlighted earlier actions repealing California emissions waivers through the Congressional Review Act and the administration’s repeal effort targeting the 2009 Endangerment Finding and related greenhouse gas vehicle regulations. The agency also tied the proposal to ongoing efforts addressing diesel exhaust fluid requirements and right-to-repair issues affecting farmers and truckers.

EPA will open a 45-day public comment period before moving toward a final rule.

—Friday: Oil rally intensifies on Hormuz risks

Crude heads for weekly surge as U.S./Iran tensions escalate

Brent crude futures climbed to around $109 per barrel on Friday and were on track for a weekly gain of roughly 8% as traders remained focused on persistent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the collapse of momentum in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. Markets reacted after President Donald Trump warned Iran to reach a deal or face “annihilation,” signaling growing frustration from Washington as negotiations stalled. U.S. WTI crude futures climbed to just over $104 per barrel. 

The latest comments came despite reports from Iran that approximately 30 vessels had crossed the Strait since Wednesday evening, suggesting only limited improvements in shipping activity. The U.S. and Iran failed earlier this week to finalize a U.S.-drafted proposal aimed at easing tensions and restoring maritime security, leaving the strategically critical waterway largely constrained and global energy markets on edge.

Meanwhile, optimism surrounding a durable ceasefire continued to fade as attacks and vessel seizures in the region reinforced concerns over broader supply disruptions. The International Energy Agency said crude oil and fuel flows through the Strait declined by roughly 4 million barrels per day during March and April, warning that global oil markets could remain materially undersupplied through October even if the conflict is resolved next month.

Adding another geopolitical dimension, Trump said China is seeking to increase purchases of U.S. crude oil as Beijing looks to reduce reliance on Middle Eastern shipping routes while transit through Hormuz remains unstable.

—Thursday: Oil market holds firm as Hormuz risks continue to dominate trade

Crude futures end slightly higher amid limited Strait traffic recovery and rising geopolitical tensions

Oil futures ended narrowly higher Thursday as traders continued to closely monitor developments surrounding the Iran conflict, shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, and broader concerns about the global economic fallout from elevated energy prices.

Brent crude futures settled up 9 cents at $105.72 per barrel after earlier climbing as high as $107.13 during the session, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 15 cents to close at $101.17 per barrel. The muted late-session gains reflected continued market caution despite signs of limited improvement in tanker traffic through the strategically critical waterway.

Markets remained highly sensitive to conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles roughly 20% of global oil and refined product flows. Iranian state media reported that about 30 vessels crossed the strait since Wednesday evening, an improvement from the severely reduced traffic levels seen earlier in the conflict. However, that figure remains far below the estimated 140 daily crossings that occurred before fighting erupted in late February.

Traders also focused on growing diplomatic involvement from China following meetings in Beijing between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Both leaders reportedly agreed that the Strait of Hormuz should remain open to global energy shipments, underscoring mounting international concern over prolonged supply disruptions.

China has additionally signaled interest in expanding purchases of U.S. crude oil as Beijing seeks to reduce dependence on Middle Eastern shipping routes that remain vulnerable to military escalation and maritime attacks.

Meanwhile, regional security concerns continued to intensify. Reports indicated an Indian cargo vessel was sunk off the coast of Oman, while another ship near the UAE energy hub of Fujairah was allegedly boarded and redirected toward Iran. Iran has also reportedly begun selectively permitting some Chinese-linked vessels to transit the strait, highlighting the increasingly politicized nature of maritime access in the region.

Energy analysts said the modest recovery in shipping movements could help calm some near-term panic in oil markets, but warned that supply conditions remain extremely tight and vulnerable to further disruptions if attacks escalate or insurance and freight costs continue rising.

Broader macroeconomic concerns also remained a major market driver. The International Monetary Fund warned that the global economy is increasingly moving toward a more adverse scenario as sustained energy price spikes and supply-chain disruptions weaken growth prospects while intensifying inflationary pressures worldwide.

Meanwhile, U.S. government inventory data provided additional support to crude prices. U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell by 4.3 million barrels last week as exports increased, reinforcing perceptions of a still-tight global oil balance despite heightened price volatility and mounting recession concerns.

—House pushes Trump team on China cotton tariffs

Lawmakers seek removal of Beijing’s cotton duties and stronger purchase commitments in U.S./China trade talks

A bipartisan group of House lawmakers is urging the Trump administration to make the removal of Chinese tariffs on U.S. cotton a priority in ongoing trade negotiations with Beijing, warning that retaliatory duties have sharply reduced American cotton exports.

In a May 12 letter (link) to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, the lawmakers said U.S. cotton exports to China plunged 87% in 2025 and called for China’s 10% tariff on U.S. cotton to be eliminated as part of any broader trade agreement.

The request comes as President Donald Trump met this week with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, where the two sides discussed trade issues including a proposed “Board of Trade” mechanism designed to manage trade flows in non-sensitive goods. The lawmakers also pressed the administration to secure cotton purchase commitments from China that would “match or exceed” the ambitions of the Phase One trade agreement negotiated during Trump’s first term.

According to the lawmakers, China imported roughly 29% of all U.S. cotton produced between 2020 and 2024 following the Phase One agreement, which temporarily boosted Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural goods. However, they argued that Beijing ultimately failed to fully meet its commitments. The National Cotton Council told USTR in comments submitted during the agency’s Section 301 review last year that the U.S. could have sold an additional $393 million worth of cotton had China fully complied with the agreement.

The letter also emphasized the need for enforceable compliance provisions in any future trade arrangement. The lawmakers said any new agreement must include “clear remedies” if China fails to fulfill its commitments, reflecting broader concerns within Congress about enforcement gaps in prior U.S./China trade deals.

Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), a member of the House Ways & Means Committee, led the effort. Other signatories included Reps. David Kustoff (R-Tenn.), Greg Murphy (R-N.C.), and Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Ga.), the lone Democrat to sign the letter. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins also received copies.

The latest push follows a separate March letter led by Arrington urging the administration to negotiate the removal of Indian tariffs on U.S. cotton as Washington and New Delhi work toward a broader trade agreement.

—Senate Democrats challenge USDA REE reorganization

Lawmakers warn planned restructuring could weaken USDA research capacity and undermine key farm data services

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), ranking member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, led 23 Senate Democrats and Independents in expressing concerns over the Trump administration’s planned reorganization of USDA’s Research, Education, and Economics (REE) mission area, warning the effort could significantly weaken the department’s scientific research and economic data capabilities.

In a letter (link) to USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden, the lawmakers argued that the restructuring risks “erod[ing] the capacity of USDA’s research agencies” and threatening their ability to provide innovation, research funding, and timely economic data relied upon by farmers, ranchers, and rural communities. The senators said the proposed reorganization — announced in April — would relocate REE staff across more than 27 locations within a matter of months, while many operational details remain unclear.

The lawmakers pointed to the controversial 2018 and 2019 relocations of the Economic Research Service (ERS) and National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA), which the Government Accountability Office later concluded resulted in the loss of more than half of agency staff. According to the senators, the GAO found USDA failed to adequately engage employees, Congress, and stakeholders during that earlier restructuring process and did not follow established best management practices.

The letter also highlighted more recent staffing reductions across REE agencies in 2025, including losses exceeding 30% at the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). The senators warned those reductions are already fueling concerns among stakeholders about the reliability and timeliness of USDA statistical reports and market data.

Along with Klobuchar, the letter was signed by Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.), John Fetterman (D-Pa.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Tina Smith (D-Minn.), Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), and several other Democratic lawmakers.

The senators requested USDA provide a detailed explanation within 30 days outlining how the department plans to minimize disruptions to research operations, funding administration, and data collection activities. They also pressed USDA to explain how it is engaging employees and complying with GAO recommendations regarding federal agency reorganizations and collective bargaining obligations.

The dispute comes amid broader congressional scrutiny of USDA restructuring efforts, including plans affecting the Agricultural Research Service, ERS, NIFA, NASS, and other agencies within the REE mission area.

—USDA expands Food for Peace funding under ‘America First’ rules

Devex reports USDA’s revamped Food for Peace program is prioritizing U.S. commodities and shipping costs while drawing criticism over country selections and aid delivery restrictions

Devex reports that USDA has opened a new $357 million Food for Peace funding round targeting seven countries, while imposing stricter “America First” requirements that prioritize U.S.-grown commodities and ocean shipping costs. The changes come as USDA continues managing the program after taking control from USAID and have sparked criticism from former aid officials and food security experts over efficiency concerns and the exclusion of some of the world’s worst hunger hotspots. 

The funding opportunity applies to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Haiti, Kenya, and Rwanda, with awards ranging from $20 million to $200 million over 18- to 24-month periods.

USDA said all aid purchased through the program must come from the United States, while banning the use of cash or food vouchers that humanitarian agencies have historically used to deliver aid more quickly and at lower cost.

The notice also requires that 50% of all program funds be reserved for American agricultural commodities and ocean freight costs, a provision critics argue could reduce funding available for local transportation, warehousing, nutrition programs, and emergency implementation efforts.

Former USAID and Food for Peace officials warned the structure could create duplicate logistics systems in countries where the World Food Program already received USDA-backed Food for Peace support earlier this year.

Questions have also emerged over USDA’s country selections. Sudan and Gaza — where famine conditions were formally identified last year — were excluded from both recent funding rounds, alongside South Sudan and Mali, despite those countries appearing on recent U.N. lists of the world’s highest food insecurity concerns. Meanwhile, El Salvador and Rwanda were included even though they were not among the most severe hunger cases identified by global food security monitors.

Critics suggested geopolitical considerations may be influencing the aid strategy, particularly regarding El Salvador, whose president, Nayib Bukele, has strengthened ties with President Donald Trump in recent months.

USDA defended the approach by saying the department is focused on “bringing Food for Peace back to its core function” of supporting American farmers while addressing emergency food needs abroad.

The debate also overlaps with ongoing farm bill negotiations, where lawmakers are considering codifying the 50% U.S.-commodity mandate into law. Supporters argue the policy expands overseas markets for American agriculture, while opponents warn it could undermine the humanitarian effectiveness of Food for Peace and weaken the program’s ability to respond rapidly to global famine and malnutrition crises.

—Judge rejects bid to block lower farmworker wages

Federal court ruling allows new H-2A wage rates to remain in effect as litigation continues

A federal judge has denied a request from the United Farm Workers seeking a preliminary injunction to halt implementation of newly lowered wage rates for certain agricultural workers, marking a significant legal setback for farm labor advocates challenging recent changes to the federal H-2A guestworker program.

The lawsuit centered on revisions to the Adverse Effect Wage Rate (AEWR), the mandatory minimum wage employers must pay H-2A agricultural guestworkers and corresponding domestic workers. The union argued the updated methodology would depress wages for farmworkers in several job categories and regions, while also undermining labor protections intended to prevent foreign labor from adversely impacting U.S. workers.

In denying the injunction request, the federal judge concluded that the plaintiffs had not met the legal standard necessary for emergency relief, including demonstrating irreparable harm or a sufficient likelihood of success on the merits of the case. The ruling means the updated wage calculations can remain in place while the broader lawsuit proceeds through the courts.

The dispute stems from changes made to how the U.S. Department of Labor calculates wage rates for agricultural occupations under the H-2A program. Under prior policy, most H-2A wage rates were tied to USDA farm labor survey data. The revised approach incorporates Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics data for certain non-field and specialized farm jobs, which in some cases results in lower required pay rates than under the previous methodology.

Farm groups and agricultural employers have argued the revised structure provides more accurate regional labor-market pricing and helps control escalating labor costs that have strained growers facing high input expenses, weak commodity prices, and labor shortages. Many agricultural organizations contend rapid AEWR increases in recent years have outpaced farm profitability and contributed to financial pressure across labor-intensive sectors including fruit, vegetable, dairy, and nursery operations.

Meanwhile, labor advocates and farmworker groups maintain the lower wage framework risks suppressing earnings for both foreign guestworkers and domestic farm laborers. The United Farm Workers argued the policy change could incentivize employers to shift workers into lower-paid occupational classifications.

The legal battle comes amid broader debate over the future of the H-2A program, which has expanded rapidly as farms increasingly rely on foreign guestworkers amid chronic domestic labor shortages. Agricultural employers have repeatedly pressed Congress and federal regulators for reforms aimed at stabilizing labor availability and reducing compliance costs, while labor organizations continue pushing for stronger wage protections and enforcement standards.

The case is expected to continue on the merits in federal court, with additional rulings likely to influence labor costs and hiring practices across major U.S. agricultural sectors.

—Senate moves to withhold lawmakers’ pay during shutdowns

Resolution led by Sen. John Kennedy aims to increase pressure on Congress to avoid future funding lapses

The Senate approved a resolution Thursday that would withhold senators’ paychecks during future government shutdowns, beginning after the November midterm elections. The measure, sponsored by John Kennedy (R-La.), passed by voice vote and is designed to create additional political pressure to avoid funding breakdowns that have repeatedly disrupted government operations this Congress.

Under the resolution, senators’ salaries would not stop permanently — since congressional pay is protected under the Constitution — but the Senate secretary would delay access to those funds until a shutdown ends.

The proposal applies only to senators and does not affect House members.

The move comes after several recent funding standoffs forced federal employees to work without pay while lawmakers continued receiving salaries, a long-standing source of public criticism during shutdown fights. The measure is intended to reinforce accountability as Congress faces continued partisan divisions over spending legislation.

— NWS outlook: Enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across much of Iowa with a slight risk extending down to the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles for today and tonight… …Next round of strong to severe thunderstorms forecast for the northern Plains Saturday night into Sunday morning… …Heat builds across the central Plains as cool and unsettled weather spreads into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.

—Western Corn Belt swings from drought to deluge before returning dry

Heavy storms are expected to stall planting and recharge soil moisture across the western Corn Belt and northern Plains, while drought and heat intensify in portions of the hard red winter wheat belt ahead of a potential frost threat next week

The western Corn Belt and northern Plains are shifting rapidly from severe dryness into an active storm pattern, with widespread thunderstorms expected daily through the next five days. The wetter pattern is expected to halt recent planting progress but should provide much-needed topsoil moisture after persistent winds and dry conditions heightened fire danger across parts of the region.

Meanwhile, the hard red winter wheat belt is expected to remain largely on the edge of the heaviest rainfall. While isolated storms are possible, the driest areas of western Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles are forecast to miss most meaningful precipitation, worsening drought stress as extreme heat builds in the near term.

Forecast models indicate another major transition after the five-day period. The western Corn Belt and northern Plains are expected to shift back into a below-normal precipitation pattern during the 6-10 day and 11–15-day outlooks, raising concerns that the current moisture improvement could be temporary.

At the same time, the Mid-South and southern Plains are forecast to enter an unusually wet pattern during Week Two, with rainfall totals potentially reaching double normal levels. The excessive moisture could disrupt ongoing fieldwork and delay additional planting activity in those regions.

Temperature volatility is also becoming a concern. The current stretch of abnormal heat is expected to break sharply early next week, with lows forecast in the 28-34 degree range from Monday through Wednesday mornings across western Nebraska and parts of the northern Plains. The cold snap could pose a frost risk to newly emerged crops before temperatures moderate again by around May 24.