Trump: Iran Deal Near as Hormuz Reopening, Nuclear Talks Take Shape, but Details Murky

Mexico, EU finalize sweeping trade pact | China’s soybean buying surge lifts dry bulk shipping demand | Food reformulation may rival GLP-1s in reshaping U.S. diets

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, May 22
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, May 22

Topics discussed

1.  Markets
2.   Cattle on Feed report
3.   Feeders down $11 at one time, closed down just over $6
4.   Fertilizer strategy
5.   Morocco CVDs
6.   China ag trade update
7.   Another strike at Dodge City KS, or will Ft Morgan close?
8.   Supreme Court decision coming on pesticide labeling
9.   Beef TRQs… internal Trump admin. differences
10. Senate farm bill
11. Food price update from USDA
12.  FOMC minutes and Warsh new Fed head
13.  Jones Act waiver analysis 

TOP STORIES

— Trump: Iran deal near as Hormuz reopening, nuclear talks take shape, but details remain murky: A 30-to-60-day memorandum of understanding is taking shape that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ease some sanctions, and begin nuclear negotiations, though U.S. and Iranian officials continue to offer conflicting accounts of what has been agreed.

— Supreme Court could soon decide key Roundup liability case: The Court may announce as early as May 28 whether it will hear Monsanto/Bayer’s appeal on whether federal pesticide law preempts state cancer-warning claims tied to Roundup exposure.

— National Sorghum Producers sees opportunity in new China ag purchase pledge: NSP expressed encouragement over China’s commitment to purchase at least $17 billion annually in U.S. agricultural products, noting sorghum is well-positioned to capture a meaningful share given historical Chinese demand.

— USDA settlement targets race-based farm program preferences: A Wall Street Journal editorial highlighted a lawsuit settlement involving Wisconsin dairy farmer Adam Faust, arguing it marks a significant step toward ending race- and sex-based preferences in USDA farm programs.

— Memorial Day travel surge collides with fuel price shock: AAA projects a record 45 million Americans will travel over the holiday weekend despite national gasoline prices averaging $4.555 per gallon — the highest since 2022 — with GasBuddy warning the summer could be among the most volatile in years.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities Friday and weekly change: U.S. stocks moved higher Friday on Middle East diplomacy hopes, with the S&P 500 posting its eighth consecutive weekly gain — the longest streak since late 2023 — while the Dow climbed to a record close.

— Markets brace for inflation data, Fed signals: A holiday-shortened week will center on Thursday’s core PCE inflation report, a heavy slate of Fed speakers, and earnings from Marvell, Salesforce, Costco, Dell, and Snowflake.

— Warsh takes Fed helm amid inflation pressures: Kevin Warsh was sworn in Friday as the 17th Fed chair, entering the role with markets pricing an 84% probability of a rate hike as inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target.

— Consumer sentiment hits record low as inflation fears deepen: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a record low of 44.8 in May, driven by rising fuel costs, with long-run inflation expectations climbing sharply to 3.9%.

— Bond market revolt raises fears over global debt and inflation: Rising sovereign yields across the U.S., Europe, Japan, and the UK are fueling “bond vigilante” concerns, with the 30-year Treasury yield recently topping 5.1% for the first time since before the 2008 financial crisis.

— Moody’s downgrade pushes Mexico closer to junk status: Moody’s cut Mexico’s sovereign credit rating to the lowest investment-grade rung, citing fiscal deterioration, rising debt-servicing costs, and slowing growth under the Sheinbaum administration.

AG MARKETS

— USDA reports larger cattle feedlot inventory, slower marketings: Feedlot inventories rose 2% year-over-year to 11.584 million head as of May 1, while April marketings fell 10%, reinforcing expectations for continued tight beef supplies and elevated prices.

— China’s soybean buying surge lifts dry bulk shipping demand: China’s soybean imports rose nearly 10% year-over-year in early 2026, with Brazil supplying over 73% of global exports while U.S. shipments to China fell 20.8%.

— Agriculture markets Friday and weekly change: Corn, soybeans, and wheat posted mostly positive weekly moves, while cattle and hog futures declined on the week.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Friday: Oil market swings persist as Iran negotiations drive volatility: Brent settled Friday at $103.54 but fell 5.48% on the week, as traders remain highly sensitive to conflicting diplomatic signals surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, where disruptions have effectively removed an estimated 14 million barrels per day from world markets.

TRADE POLICY

— Mexico, EU finalize sweeping trade pact: The two sides signed a Modernized Global Agreement eliminating tariffs on 99% of traded goods, with agriculture emerging as a major beneficiary as both parties seek to reduce dependence on the U.S. market.

— Trade wars shift from tariffs to supply chains: A Financial Times analysis argues that export controls and supply-chain choke points — from semiconductors to rare earths to agricultural goods — have become the defining weapons in the escalating U.S./China economic conflict.

FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY

— Food reformulation may rival GLP-1s in reshaping U.S. diets: Some analysts argue that the food industry’s broad push toward lower-sugar, higher-protein products could ultimately affect more consumers than weight-loss drugs, with significant long-term implications for agricultural commodity demand.

— Natural food dyes face growing scrutiny: New French research found several natural color additives — including beta-carotene, curcumin, and anthocyanins — associated with elevated risks of Type 2 diabetes and certain cancers, complicating the MAHA push toward naturally derived ingredients.

LABOR & IMMIGRATION POLICY

— Trump administration moves to require most green card applicants to leave U.S.: A new USCIS policy will require most foreigners seeking green cards to apply from abroad rather than adjusting status inside the U.S., potentially affecting hundreds of thousands of applicants annually and raising fears of prolonged family separations.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— WSJ editorial warns Trump’s personal agenda is undermining GOP prospects: The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board argued that Trump’s focus on political retribution — including a proposed $1.776 billion “anti-weaponization fund” and intervention in Republican primaries — is creating avoidable liabilities ahead of the 2026 midterms.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Wet and stormy conditions are expected to persist across much of the eastern U.S. through Memorial Day, while the West transitions from warm and dry to increasing shower chances early to mid-next week.
 

—Equities Friday and weekly change: U.S. stocks moved higher Friday, buoyed by signs of progress in Middle East peace negotiations and another round of solid corporate earnings. The S&P 500 rose 0.37%, marking its eighth consecutive weekly gain — the longest winning streak since late 2023 — while the Dow climbed 294 points to a record close. The Nasdaq added 0.19%.

Markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Memorial Day.

—Markets brace for inflation data, Fed signals

Investors eye core PCE inflation, Fed commentary, and major tech earnings in a holiday-shortened trading week

Wall Street enters a holiday-shortened week focused on a fresh round of inflation data, Federal Reserve commentary, and key technology earnings that could shape expectations for interest rates and corporate spending trends.

The week’s main macroeconomic event will be Thursday’s core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index report — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, at least for now. Economists expect core PCE to rise 3.3%, a reading that would keep pressure on policymakers as investors continue debating the rate outlook under new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh.

Markets will also parse comments from a heavy lineup of Fed officials, including John Williams, Austan Goolsbee, and Neel Kashkari, for clues on the policy path ahead.

On the corporate side, earnings from Marvell Technology, Salesforce, Costco, Dell Technologies, and Snowflake are expected to provide fresh insight into AI spending, enterprise technology demand, and consumer health.

Dell’s earnings call will receive particular attention for commentary on AI infrastructure trends following last week’s closely watched results from Nvidia.

Investors will also monitor Meta Platforms’ annual shareholder meeting for updates on AI-related spending and capital return plans, while executives from Nvidia and Applied Materials are scheduled to appear at investor conferences during the week.

Outside financial markets, Disney is expected to dominate the Memorial Day box office with the release of Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu, marking the franchise’s first theatrical release since 2019.

—Warsh takes Fed Helm amid inflation pressures

Trump pledges Fed independence as markets brace for possible rate hikes under new chair Kevin Warsh.

Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in Friday as the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve during a White House ceremony, marking the first time since Alan Greenspan in 1987 that a Fed chair has taken the oath at the White House. President Donald Trump sought to calm investor concerns about political interference, saying he wants Warsh to be “totally independent” and to “do your own thing.”

Warsh enters the role facing persistent inflation, internal divisions at the Federal Open Market Committee, and growing expectations that the Fed’s next move could be a rate increase rather than a cut. Markets are currently pricing in an 84% probability of a rate hike as inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target. April consumer prices posted their biggest increase in three years, while wholesale inflation recorded its strongest monthly gain since 2022.

In his remarks, Warsh signaled a reform-oriented approach at the central bank, emphasizing price stability, institutional integrity, and a willingness to rethink longstanding Fed frameworks. He has previously criticized the Fed’s reliance on forward guidance and large-scale balance sheet expansion, arguing the central bank’s $6.7 trillion balance sheet has become excessively large.

The transition also comes amid heightened scrutiny over Fed independence. Warsh has longstanding ties to Trump-world through his father-in-law Ronald Lauder and has met frequently with the president, prompting criticism from Democrats, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who questioned whether Warsh could operate free from political influence. Still, Trump struck a notably softer tone toward Warsh than he did with former Chair Jerome Powell, whom he repeatedly criticized during his tenure.

Quote of note: “I want him to be totally independent,” Trump said just before Warsh was sworn in. “I want him to be independent and just do a great job. Don’t look at me, don’t look at anybody, just do your own thing and do a great job.”

Another quote of note: He’s going to do the right thing for inflation and growth,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said after being asked if Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh would cut interest rates.

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins commented on the swearing in ceremony in a statement on X: “Today, I was so honored to attend the swearing in of Kevin Warsh by @potus  as the new @federalreserve  Chair. Agriculture is no doubt a capital-intensive industry, and today marked a new chapter in our fight to make rural America prosperous again.”

—Consumer sentiment hits record low as inflation fears deepen

Rising gasoline prices tied to Strait of Hormuz disruptions and broader cost-of-living concerns pushed U.S. consumer confidence to its weakest level on record in May 

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to a record low of 44.8 in May 2026, revised down from a preliminary reading of 48.2 and marking the third consecutive monthly decline, as ongoing supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continued to drive gasoline prices higher.

Cost-of-living pressures remained the dominant concern among households, with 57% of consumers spontaneously citing high prices as a key factor hurting their personal finances. The sharpest deterioration in sentiment came among lower-income Americans and consumers without college degrees, groups considered especially vulnerable to rising fuel and essential goods costs.

The survey also revealed growing political and economic anxiety. Independents and Republicans registered the weakest sentiment readings of the current Trump administration, while Democratic sentiment was largely unchanged. Meanwhile, consumers increasingly expressed concern that inflationary pressures could spread beyond energy markets and become more entrenched across the broader economy.

Inflation expectations continued to move higher. Consumers’ year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.8% from 4.7%, while long-run inflation expectations climbed sharply to 3.9% from 3.5%, underscoring mounting worries that elevated prices could persist well beyond the current energy shock.

—Bond market revolt raises fears over global debt and inflation

Rising yields and renewed “bond vigilante” concerns are intensifying pressure on governments, central banks, and financial markets worldwide 

The Financial Times reported that a growing number of investors believe global bond markets are signaling a deeper structural problem as government borrowing costs continue to surge amid persistent inflation fears and mounting fiscal deficits.

The latest selloff has been fueled by elevated energy prices tied to the ongoing Iran conflict and disruptions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, which have reignited inflation concerns just as many central banks believed price pressures were easing. The result has been a sharp rise in sovereign bond yields across the U.S., Europe, Japan, and the United Kingdom.

The Financial Times said “a sense is setting in among bond-market professionals that we have a serious problem here,” as investors increasingly question whether governments can continue financing massive spending programs tied to defense, energy transition projects, industrial policy, and social support programs without triggering even higher borrowing costs.

The concern centers on the return of so-called “bond vigilantes” — investors who sell government debt when they believe fiscal and monetary policies are becoming inflationary or unsustainable. Rising yields effectively force governments to pay more to finance deficits and can constrain public spending plans.

In the U.S., the 30-year Treasury yield recently climbed above 5.1%, its highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis, while Japan and the U.K. also saw multi-decade highs in long-dated bond yields.

Reuters noted that investors are increasingly worried the Iran conflict could create a lasting inflation shock through sustained higher energy prices, potentially forcing central banks — including the Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh — to maintain tighter monetary policy for longer than previously expected.

The UK has emerged as a particular focal point for market anxiety. The FT and other analysts highlighted concerns over Britain’s high debt burden, political instability, and declining demand from traditional long-term gilt buyers such as pension funds. Hedge funds and leveraged trading strategies now play a larger role in the market, increasing fears of volatility and liquidity stress.

Meanwhile, equity markets have so far remained relatively resilient, supported by continued enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and strong corporate earnings. However, analysts warn that persistently rising bond yields could eventually pressure stock valuations, corporate borrowing, consumer spending, and housing markets globally.

—Moody’s downgrade pushes Mexico closer to junk status

Ratings cut underscores mounting concerns over fiscal deterioration, slower growth, and rising pressure on the Sheinbaum administration

Mexico moved one step closer to losing its investment-grade status after Moody’s Ratings downgraded the country’s sovereign credit rating to the lowest rung of investment grade, intensifying scrutiny over the nation’s fiscal trajectory and long-term economic outlook. The downgrade reflects growing concern that rising government deficits, expanding debt-servicing costs, and slowing economic activity are undermining confidence in Mexico’s public finances at a time when the country is also facing heightened political and trade uncertainty.

Moody’s said the decision was driven largely by what it described as a “continued deterioration” in Mexico’s fiscal position. Government borrowing needs have expanded sharply in recent years following elevated public spending, major infrastructure projects, and rising social program commitments. Meanwhile, weaker tax revenues and slower economic momentum have made it increasingly difficult for policymakers to stabilize debt levels.

The move leaves Mexico just one notch above non-investment-grade, or “junk,” territory at Moody’s, raising the stakes for President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration as it attempts to reassure global investors that fiscal discipline will remain intact. A further downgrade could materially increase borrowing costs for both the Mexican government and Mexican corporations, while also potentially forcing some institutional investors to reduce exposure to Mexican debt due to investment-grade restrictions.

Markets are especially focused on the trajectory of Mexico’s fiscal deficit, which widened significantly over the past year amid increased public-sector spending and slower-than-expected revenue growth. Analysts have also pointed to the growing financial pressures surrounding state-owned energy company Petróleos Mexicanos, commonly known as Pemex, whose debt burden remains one of the largest among global oil companies and continues to pose contingent risks to the federal balance sheet.

The downgrade also comes as Mexico faces softer external demand and growing uncertainty tied to U.S. trade and industrial policy. While nearshoring trends have benefited parts of Mexico’s manufacturing sector, economists warn that weaker U.S. consumer demand, elevated global interest rates, and energy market volatility are weighing on broader growth prospects.

Investors will now closely watch whether the Sheinbaum administration unveils credible fiscal consolidation measures in upcoming budget proposals. Without a meaningful effort to narrow deficits and stabilize debt dynamics, rating agencies could continue pressuring Mexico’s sovereign outlook, increasing fears that Latin America’s second-largest economy could eventually lose its investment-grade standing altogether.

—USDA reports larger cattle feedlot inventory, slower marketings

April placements rose sharply while fed cattle marketings fell, reinforcing expectations for continued tight beef supplies and elevated cattle prices

USDA’s latest monthly Cattle on Feed report showed feedlot inventories at 11.584 million head as of May 1, up 2% from a year ago, signaling that feedlots continue to hold historically large numbers of cattle despite tight overall U.S. herd supplies. 

April placements totaled 1.702 million head, 6% above last year, with much of the increase concentrated in heavier-weight cattle entering feedyards. USDA reported placements of 457,000 head in the 800–899-pound category and 210,000 head in the 900–999-pound class, indicating continued strong movement of feeder cattle into finishing operations.

Meanwhile, marketings fell sharply. Fed cattle marketings during April totaled 1.642 million head, down 10% from a year ago, suggesting packers processed fewer cattle amid tighter supplies and ongoing margin pressure in the beef sector.

Regionally, Nebraska remained the largest cattle-on-feed state at 2.64 million head, followed closely by Texas at 2.58 million head and Kansas at 2.37 million head. Texas placements increased 8% from a year earlier, while Colorado placements jumped 17%, reflecting continued movement into Southern Plains and High Plains feedyards.

The report also highlighted that “other disappearance” — including death loss and cattle moved back to pasture or to other feedlots — totaled 52,000 head, up 4% from last year.

Overall, the data reinforced the broader cattle market narrative:feedlots remain relatively full because cattle are being held longer at heavier weights, even as the underlying U.S. cattle herd remains historically tight. That combination continues to support elevated live cattle and beef prices while contributing to concerns about long-term beef supply availability and consumer price inflation.

—China’s soybean buying surge lifts dry bulk shipping demand

Banchero Costa says China’s soybean imports rebounded sharply in early 2026, boosting global dry bulk trade and reinforcing Brazil’s dominance in the Chinese feed market 

According to a report highlighted by Hellenic Shipping News and based on analysis from shipbroker Banchero Costa, China’s role in the global soybean trade strengthened further during the first four months of 2026 as imports surged nearly 10% year-over-year. The rebound has provided additional support for the dry bulk shipping market, particularly the Panamax and Kamsarmax vessel segments that dominate soybean transport routes.

Global seaborne soybean exports rose 11% year-over-year to 61.7 million metric tons during January through April 2026, led overwhelmingly by Brazil, which accounted for more than 73% of global soybean exports during the period. Brazilian soybean shipments climbed 5.9% from a year earlier to 45.1 million tons, while U.S. soybean exports rebounded 33.9% to 14.6 million tons after a weak 2025 comparison.

China remained the dominant buyer, accounting for nearly 60% of all global seaborne soybean imports. Chinese soybean imports increased 9.8% year-over-year to 27 million tons in the first four months of 2026, reflecting continued strong feed demand and heavy purchases from Brazil. By contrast, European Union soybean imports declined 6.8% during the same period.

The report also underscored the continuing shift in China’s sourcing patterns away from the United States and toward Brazil. Brazilian soybeans represented 59.3% of China’s imports during January through April, with shipments from Brazil to China rising 11% year-over-year to 16.1 million tons. Meanwhile, U.S. soybean shipments to China fell 20.8% to 7.8 million tons, continuing a multi-year decline in America’s share of the Chinese market.

Banchero Costa noted that seasonal export trends favor even stronger Brazilian shipments into China through the summer months, as Brazil’s harvest and export window typically peaks between February and July. U.S. soybean exports, meanwhile, generally strengthen later in the year during the fourth quarter.

—Agriculture markets Friday and weekly change:

—Friday: Oil market swings persist as Iran negotiations drive volatility

Crude prices rebound Friday but post sharp weekly losses as traders weigh fragile diplomacy, tightening supplies, and ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions

Brent crude futures settled Friday up 96 cents, or 0.94%, at $103.54 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 25 cents, or 0.26%, to $96.60 a barrel. Despite the late-session gains, both benchmarks finished sharply lower for the week as markets continued to react to rapidly shifting headlines surrounding U.S./Iran negotiations. Brent fell 5.48% on the week, while WTI dropped 8.37%.

Analysts said traders remain highly sensitive to conflicting reports about the status of diplomatic talks and the future of sanctions relief.

Diplomatic activity intensified Friday as regional intermediaries increased engagement with Tehran. Iran’s IRNA news agency reported that Pakistan’s army chief traveled to Iran, while a senior Iranian official told Reuters that differences between Washington and Tehran had narrowed. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also acknowledged incremental progress following a NATO ministers’ meeting in Sweden, saying discussions were moving forward but cautioning that significant work remains.

Meanwhile, Qatar also stepped up its involvement, with a Qatari delegation arriving in Tehran in coordination with the United States to support ongoing negotiations, according to Reuters.

Even with signs of diplomatic progress, traders remain focused on unresolved disputes over Iran’s uranium stockpile and Tehran’s push for greater control over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Supply concerns continue underpinning oil prices despite the weekly decline. Analysts warned that global inventories are tightening rapidly as shipping through Hormuz remains heavily constrained. Some analysts note that global oil inventories are depleting quickly as flows through the strait slow dramatically. Recurring optimism over a possible truce, combined with bearish rhetoric whenever Brent nears $110 a barrel, has prevented crude prices from moving materially higher.

The broader market remains increasingly concerned about the inflationary and economic effects of prolonged supply disruptions. Six weeks into the fragile ceasefire involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, elevated energy prices continue to pressure global growth expectations and inflation forecasts.

Before the conflict, roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments moved through the Strait of Hormuz. The war has effectively removed an estimated 14 million barrels per day of oil supply from world markets, including exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has warned that full normalization of flows through the waterway may not occur until early or mid-2027 even if fighting stops immediately.

—Mexico, EU finalize sweeping trade pact

Modernized agreement eliminates tariffs on 99% of traded goods as both sides seek to reduce dependence on the U.S. market

Mexico and the European Union signed a long-awaited Modernized Global Agreement (MGA) on Friday, marking a major expansion of trade ties between the two economies and underscoring a broader push by both sides to diversify exports and investment away from the United States amid ongoing tariff tensions.

The agreement, signed during an EU/Mexico summit in Mexico City, will eliminate tariffs on 99% of products traded between Mexico and the EU once ratified by the European Parliament and the Mexican Senate.

Mexican officials said the deal would reduce tariffs on European agricultural products by roughly 95% while also opening new opportunities in critical minerals, automotive manufacturing, electronics and agribusiness.

The updated accord modernizes the original 2000 EU/Mexico agreement, which focused largely on industrial goods, by adding provisions covering services, government procurement, digital trade, investment and agricultural products. The deal also removes mutual tariffs on electric vehicles and batteries, reflecting growing cooperation in advanced manufacturing and clean-energy supply chains.

Agriculture emerged as a major beneficiary of the new framework. Mexico will gain expanded duty-free access, subject to some quotas, for exports including chicken and asparagus, while European exporters will benefit from easier access for products such as cheese, milk powder and pork. Officials on both sides said the agreement should significantly facilitate agricultural trade flows.

Another notable change is the creation of a new Investment Dispute Resolution Tribunal, replacing older bilateral investment agreements and providing a new mechanism to handle trade and investment disputes.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum hosted European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa at the National Palace ahead of the signing ceremony. The summit marked the first formal Mexico–EU summit in more than a decade.

Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said the deal could accelerate economic growth by attracting more European investment into sectors such as auto parts, electronics, financial services and agribusiness. He noted that trade and investment trends already point toward deeper integration between Mexico and Europe.

Trade between Mexico and the EU has increased by roughly 75% over the past decade, driven by machinery, transportation equipment, chemicals, fuels and mining products. The EU was Mexico’s second-largest export destination after the United States last year, while Mexico ranks as the second-largest importer of European agri-food products in Latin America.

—Trade wars shift from tariffs to supply chains

Financial Times analysis says export controls and supply-chain choke points are becoming the defining weapons in the escalating U.S.-China economic conflict 

The Financial Times argues that modern trade wars are increasingly being fought through export restrictions rather than traditional tariffs, with the U.S. and China weaponizing critical supply chains tied to semiconductors, rare earth minerals, energy, and advanced technologies. The piece notes that while President Donald Trump has long relied on tariffs as leverage against Beijing, China has spent years building countermeasures through its dominance in manufacturing and strategic materials. 

According to the FT, export controls have surged globally since the Covid-19 pandemic and intensified further following geopolitical disruptions such as the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Governments increasingly view restrictions on chips, fuel, fertilizer, medicines, and industrial components as national security tools. China’s growing use of rare earth licensing rules and restrictions on “dual-use” goods reflects how Beijing is attempting to counter Washington’s semiconductor curbs.

The article stresses that such restrictions often backfire over time by forcing targeted countries and companies to diversify supply chains and accelerate domestic innovation. The FT points to Chinese advances in semiconductor equipment after U.S. chip sanctions, as well as global efforts to reroute oil and commodity flows following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is cited warning that U.S. export controls have strengthened Chinese competitors by pushing Beijing to develop homegrown alternatives.

Of note: An agriculture angle is what is going on relative to the U.S. closing its border with Mexico relative to the New World screwworm situation. Mexico is using the closure to build up its cattle feeding operations and if the border continues to be closed, Mexico will accelerate its beef exports to the United States, rather than sending its cattle to U.S. feedlots.

Meanwhile, the FT concludes that while “no one wins” a trade war outright, the countries best positioned to endure prolonged economic conflict will be those that build alliances, diversify suppliers, stockpile key materials, and reduce dependence on geopolitical rivals.

—Food reformulation may rival GLP-1s in reshaping U.S. diets

Some analysts argue the food industry’s push toward lower-sugar and “better-for-you” products could have a broader long-term impact on consumption patterns than weight-loss drugs alone

The explosive rise of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy has triggered widespread debate about the future of the food industry, with investors closely watching whether appetite-suppressing medications will permanently reduce demand for snacks, sweets, sugary beverages and highly processed foods. But a growing number of food executives, nutrition analysts and market strategists contend the bigger long-term disruption may come not from pharmaceuticals, but from the food industry itself.

Their argument is that large consumer packaged goods companies, restaurant chains and ingredient suppliers are already reformulating products to reduce sugar, improve protein content, add fiber and eliminate ingredients increasingly viewed negatively by consumers and policymakers.

Unlike GLP-1 drugs, which are still expensive, require medical supervision and primarily reach a subset of consumers, reformulated foods can affect nearly the entire population through everyday purchasing behavior.

Executives across the food sector increasingly describe reformulation as a defensive necessity rather than a niche wellness trend. Consumer demand has shifted sharply toward products marketed as lower sugar, higher protein, minimally processed or metabolically healthier. Meanwhile, pressure is mounting from Washington, public health advocates and state-level policymakers scrutinizing ultra-processed foods, food additives and obesity-related healthcare costs.

The movement has accelerated as major retailers devote more shelf space to “better-for-you” products and as younger consumers increasingly read labels and track nutrition metrics. Food manufacturers are responding by quietly adjusting recipes — often gradually enough that consumers do not notice dramatic taste changes — while attempting to preserve margins and brand loyalty.

Some industry observers believe this incremental reformulation strategy may ultimately prove more economically significant than GLP-1 adoption because it changes the underlying composition of the food supply itself. In that scenario, consumers continue purchasing familiar brands and products, but the nutritional profile slowly shifts over time toward lower sugar and calorie density.

Meanwhile, GLP-1 drugs are creating an important secondary effect: they are accelerating pressure on food companies to adapt. Food manufacturers increasingly recognize that consumers using GLP-1 medications often seek smaller portions, higher protein intake and foods perceived as more nutritionally efficient. That has prompted companies to redesign products around satiety, protein content and blood sugar management.

The debate is especially important for agriculture because reformulation trends could alter long-term demand patterns for corn sweeteners, sugar, dairy ingredients, vegetable oils and specialty crops. Reduced sugar inclusion rates across beverages, cereals and packaged foods could pressure traditional sweetener demand over time, while boosting markets tied to protein ingredients, fiber additives, fermentation technologies and alternative sweeteners.

Some analysts also note that reformulation may face fewer structural barriers than widespread GLP-1 adoption. Although use of obesity drugs continues growing rapidly, insurers and government programs still face major cost questions surrounding long-term coverage. Food reformulation, by contrast, can scale across mass-market products without requiring physician access or reimbursement systems.

Still, skeptics caution that reformulation efforts have limits. Consumers consistently prioritize taste, convenience and affordability, and many past attempts at “healthier” processed foods failed because products were viewed as inferior or overly expensive. Critics also argue that lowering sugar alone does not necessarily make highly processed foods healthy, particularly if manufacturers replace sugar with additives or artificial ingredients consumers distrust.

The food industry is also navigating growing political scrutiny surrounding nutrition policy. Discussions around ultra-processed foods, school meals, SNAP purchasing incentives and food labeling have intensified under the Trump administration and among some public health advocates. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has repeatedly criticized processed foods and artificial additives, increasing pressure on major manufacturers to proactively adapt before stricter regulations emerge.

Upshot: For investors and policymakers, the broader question is whether the future of healthier eating will be driven primarily through medicine or through gradual changes to the food system itself. Increasingly, some on Wall Street and within the consumer products industry believe the answer may be both — but that food reformulation could ultimately reach far more consumers than prescription obesity drugs ever will.

—Natural food dyes face growing scrutiny

French research suggests some “natural” food color additives promoted as alternatives to synthetic dyes may also carry health risks, complicating the MAHA movement’s push for cleaner ingredient labels

New research from French universities and health institutes is raising questions about whether natural food color additives are significantly safer than synthetic dyes, even as the Trump administration and the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement push food companies toward naturally derived alternatives.

The studies, published this week in the journals Diabetes Care and the European Journal of Epidemiology, tracked the diets of more than 100,000 people over an average of eight years. Researchers found that several natural color additives were associated with elevated risks of Type 2 diabetes and certain cancers — in some cases at levels comparable to artificial dyes.

Among the findings, beta-carotene — a coloring extracted from carrots or red palm oil and commonly used in cheese, yogurt, cakes and fruit drinks — was linked to a 44% higher risk of Type 2 diabetes among people with higher intake levels. Curcumin and anthocyanins, also naturally sourced from fruits and vegetables, were associated with 49% and 40% increased diabetes risks, respectively.

In a separate cancer-focused study, researchers found that both natural and synthetic food colorings were linked to a 21% higher risk of breast cancer. Beta-carotene alone was associated with a 41% increased breast cancer risk, while ordinary caramel coloring was tied to a 15% increase in overall cancer risk.

The findings arrive as the Trump administration intensifies pressure on major food manufacturers to phase out artificial dyes. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has made the shift toward natural food ingredients a central pillar of the MAHA agenda. Food companies including General Mills and WK Kellogg have already announced plans to remove certain synthetic dyes from products such as Froot Loops.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved several new natural food colorings over the past year, while states including California, West Virginia and Utah have enacted or considered restrictions on artificial dyes.

Of note: Lead researcher Mathilde Touvier of France’s National Institute of Health and Medical Research said the results underscore that “natural” does not automatically mean safe. Researchers suggested that when compounds are isolated, processed and concentrated into additives, they may behave differently in the body than when consumed in whole foods. Emerging laboratory and animal studies indicate some additives may contribute to inflammation, insulin resistance and disruptions to the gut microbiome.

The researchers emphasized that the studies were observational and do not prove direct causation. Still, the findings add complexity to the broader debate over ultraprocessed foods and ingredient reformulation strategies. While policymakers and food manufacturers increasingly position natural dyes as a healthier replacement for synthetic additives, the research suggests the larger issue may be the growing reliance on highly processed foods themselves rather than the source of the coloring alone.

—Trump administration moves to require most green card applicants to leave U.S.

New policy would force many immigrants to apply from abroad, raising fears of family separations, legal challenges, and longer processing delays

The Trump administration announced a major shift in U.S. immigration policy Friday, saying most foreigners seeking green cards will now have to leave the United States and apply from their home countries rather than remain in the U.S. during the process. The change, outlined in a new U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services memo, marks a significant tightening of legal immigration rules and could affect hundreds of thousands of applicants each year. 

Under the new guidance, green cards will only be granted to applicants already inside the country under “extraordinary circumstances,” sharply limiting the long-standing “adjustment of status” process that has allowed many immigrants to transition from temporary visas to permanent residency without leaving the U.S.

Agency officials argued the move restores the immigration system to its original intent and reduces the risk of applicants remaining in the country illegally after denials.

The policy is expected to impact a wide range of immigrants, including spouses of U.S. citizens, students, and foreign workers on temporary visas such as H-1Bs. Immigration attorneys warned the changes could create lengthy family separations because applicants may now be required to wait overseas for months or even years while their cases are processed through already strained U.S. consulates abroad.

The announcement triggered immediate uncertainty across the immigration legal community, with attorneys scrambling to determine which categories of immigrants may still qualify for exemptions. USCIS suggested refugees would likely remain exempt, while also indicating applicants deemed to provide economic or national-interest benefits could still qualify to stay in the U.S. during processing. However, officials provided few specifics.

The policy represents another escalation in President Donald Trump’s broader immigration crackdown, which has increasingly targeted not only undocumented immigrants but also legal immigration pathways. According to Department of Homeland Security data cited in the report, more than 820,000 green cards in 2024 were granted through adjustment of status to people already living inside the U.S., including roughly 250,000 marriage-based green cards.

—WSJ editorial warns Trump’s personal agenda is undermining GOP prospects

Wall Street Journal opinion writers argue President Trump’s focus on political revenge and symbolic projects is weakening Republican unity and threatening the party’s congressional majority ahead of the 2026 midterms

A sharply critical editorial from the editorial board of The Wall Street Journal argues that President Donald Trump’s second term is increasingly being driven by “personal political obsessions” that are damaging both his presidency and Republican electoral prospects. 

The editorial (link) contends that Republican lawmakers are privately frustrated by what it describes as Trump’s fixation on “retribution” politics, warning that the White House is creating avoidable political liabilities at a time when Republicans are already facing a difficult fight to retain control of Congress. The piece says Trump’s priorities are “handing Democrats gift after gift and forcing Republicans to take difficult votes that could cost them in November.”

The Journal specifically highlights Trump’s proposed $1.776 billion “anti-weaponization fund,” which would reportedly compensate Jan. 6 defendants and others Trump believes were unfairly targeted by Democratic officials. The editorial board sharply criticized the proposal, noting that Trump “is on both sides of the deal” because the Justice Department reports to him.

The piece also cites growing Republican unease over what Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) allegedly called a “galactic blunder.” According to the editorial, GOP leaders pulled Department of Homeland Security funding legislation after Democrats prepared amendments aimed at forcing Republicans to publicly defend taxpayer payouts tied to Jan. 6 participants. Another point of contention was Trump’s push for $220 million in congressional funding for a new East Wing ballroom at the White House.

The editorial said Senate Republicans became frustrated after the Senate parliamentarian ruled the project could not move through reconciliation procedures, requiring 60 Senate votes instead of a simple majority. Trump then called for the parliamentarian to be fired.

The editorial also criticized Trump for intervening in Republican primaries against incumbent GOP senators, including Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas). The board argued Trump’s actions were largely motivated by “revenge” and could weaken relationships with lawmakers whose support he still needs to advance legislation.

Meanwhile, the Journal warned that Republican resistance is extending beyond spending disputes to foreign policy. House GOP leaders reportedly delayed a war powers vote when it appeared Trump-backed positions might fail, while the editorial described growing concern about “overall eroding political support” for the administration’s approach.

The editorial concludes with a broader warning that Trump risks squandering his second term if he remains consumed by personal grievances rather than governing priorities like inflation and the economy. “Mr. Trump needs a second-year reset,” the board wrote, “or he is headed toward a second-term failure.”

— NWS outlook: Wet, stormy, and unsettled weather continues for much of the eastern half of the U.S. through Memorial Day… …Warm and mainly dry weather across the West gives way to increasing shower chances early to mid next week.