Trump to Offer Concessions to China

U.S. and China kick off trade talks | Trump, Lula aim for Asia meeting with lower U.S. tariffs possible

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 24
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 24

Weekend Updates:

TRADE & FOREIGN POLICY
— Trump signals willingness to offer concessions to China
— Trump to raise China’s cut in Russian oil buys, signals hope for ‘comprehensive deal’
— U.S. and China kick off trade talks ahead of likely high-stakes Trump/Xi Summit
— Economist magazine: China’s triumph in the trade war
— U.S. launches China tariff probe ahead of possible Trump/Xi meeting
— Trump, Lula aim for Asia meeting with lower U.S. tariffs possible
— Canada says it’s ready to resume trade talks when U.S. is
 

DOMESTIC POLICY & SHUTDOWN IMPACT
— Food fight: SNAP benefits to run dry; USDA declines emergency funding
— Mexico and USDA ag leaders to meet week of Oct. 27
 

ASIA & TRADE EXPANSION
— Malaysia seeks 0% chip tariff, eyes critical minerals pact with Trump
 

DEFENSE & GOVERNMENT
— Trump friend donates $130 million to help pay military during shutdown
— Air traffic controller sick calls surge as shutdown deepens
 

FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities Friday and weekly change
— BlackRock’s Rieder sees inflation cooling, paving way for Fed rate cuts
— From hedge-fund whiz to Treasury hard-liner: Scott Bessent’s bold gamble
 

AG MARKETS
— Brazil’s corn ethanol boom is pushing global sugar prices to four-year lows
— Agriculture markets Friday and weekly change
 

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil prices slipped Fri. after rally; traders question impact of U.S. sanctions on Russia
— Cheap gas gives Trump a win — but experts warn it may not last
 

POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Argentina votes amid crisis and U.S. pressure
 

FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY
— Health activists ramp up war on processed foods amid MAHA movement
 

WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Atmospheric river activity across the Pacific Northwest continues

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Oct. 25, 2025

—Trump signals willingness to offer concessions to China ahead of potential Xi meetingTrump seeks to ease trade tensions as major tariff decisions loom President Donald Trump said he is open to making limited concessions to China to calm the escalating trade war, ahead of his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping next week at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in South Korea, Politico reported. “Sure they’ll have to make concessions… I guess we will, too,” Trump told reporters during his Asia tour, acknowledging that a mutual compromise may be necessary to reach a deal. He noted current tariffs on Chinese goods stand at 157%, calling that level “unsustainable” for Beijing.Note: As of today (Sat., Oct. 25), Beijing has confirmed only that Xi will visit South Korea for APEC Oct 30.–Nov 1 and has said China and the U.S. are “in close communication” about a possible leaders’ meeting. It hasn’t matched the White House’s announcement of a Thursday, Oct. 30 bilateral.  Trump has threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese exports in November unless China relaxes its rare earth export restrictions. When asked about the likelihood of proceeding with that tariff, Trump replied, “I don’t know. I have no odds. I don’t think they would want that. It would not be good for them.” The president also indicated plans to press Xi on China’s continued purchases of Russian oil, saying he hopes Beijing will “help us out with Russia” amid intensified U.S. sanctions. On Taiwan, Trump warned that any move by Beijing would be “very dangerous for them.” Trump said he would use a meeting with Xi to push for the release of Jimmy Lai, after a group of U.S. lawmakers urged him to appeal for the Hong Kong media mogul’s release. “I have a lot of respect for Rick Scott and a lot of them that are asking me to do that, and it’s on my list I’m going to ask,” Trump said Friday as he departed Washington for his trip to Asia. More than 30 lawmakers signed a letter headed by Scott, a U.S. Senator from Florida, asking Trump to raise the issue of Lai, noting that Lai is suffering from deteriorating health. “Time is not on his side — he must be released immediately,” the lawmakers wrote. “The humanitarian case for Lai’s release is stronger and more dire than ever, which is why this must be addressed at the highest possible level.” Trump has previously said he would “do everything I can” to free Lai, the former owner of Apple Daily. The outlet was harshly critical of Beijing and backed pro-democracy protests in the city in 2014 and 2019. The Chinese government has previously expressed stern opposition to any action seen as interfering in the country’s affairs. Trump added he would be open to meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during his Asia trip, saying, “I’d be open to it, 100%. I got along very well with Kim Jong Un.” Meanwhile, the price of Chicago soybeans jumped on Thursday to the highest intraday level since August after Trump said he expected to strike a trade deal with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, while both wheat and corn followed the oilseed higher. On Friday, prices for soybeans and wheat were largely unchanged, while corn dipped.—Trump to raise China’s cut in Russian oil buys, signals hope for ‘comprehensive deal’ with XiPresident expresses disappointment with Putin and optimism for Asia summit talks in South KoreaPresident Donald Trump said he may discuss China’s recent pullback in purchasing Russian oil during his upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, following new U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One en route to Asia, Trump voiced frustration with Vladimir Putin’s handling of the Ukraine war, saying, “I’ve always had a great relationship with Vladimir Putin, but this has been very disappointing.”Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held “very constructive” preliminary talks in Kuala Lumpur on Saturday (see next item for more), with negotiations expected to resume Sunday. Trump said he hopes Thursday’s summit with Xi will yield “a complete deal” covering agriculture, fentanyl exports, and tariffs. “We’ll be talking about a lot of things,” Trump said. “I think we have a really good chance of making a very comprehensive deal.”Trump noted that Chinese state firms, including Sinopec, had canceled some purchases of Russian seaborne crude after the U.S. blacklisted two major Russian oil producers. “China is cutting back very substantially on the purchase of Russian oil, and India is cutting back completely,” he said.While signaling optimism toward Xi, Trump was far less confident about cooperation from Moscow. He confirmed canceling a planned meeting with Putin in Hungary, adding, “I’m not going to be wasting my time.” The sanctions marked Washington’s toughest action yet on Russia’s petroleum sector and warned global financial firms against dealings with sanctioned entities.—U.S. and China kick off trade talks ahead of likely high-stakes Trump/Xi summitTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese vice-premier He Lifeng aim to ease tensions over tariffs The United States and China have opened pivotal trade negotiations in Kuala Lumpur ahead of a widely anticipated summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, in what authorities describe as an effort to stave off a renewed trade confrontation. According to U.S. officials, the first day of talks between Bessent and He Lifeng was “very constructive.” The Chinese delegation of about 20 people arrived at the Merdeka 118 tower, the highest skyscraper in Malaysia, just before 11am on Saturday. Among those taking part in the talks is Chinese vice-minister of commerce and key trade negotiator Li Chenggang. A representative of the Chinese embassy said before talks began that the Chinese delegation’s U.S. counterparts were already at the site. The discussions are taking place against a backdrop of deepening friction: Beijing recently imposed sweeping rare-earth export controls, and Washington issued a formal investigation into whether China is complying with a prior trade deal (see related item below), prompting Trump to threaten 100% tariffs on Chinese goods from Nov. 1.  Key themes  • Treasury Secretary Bessent has been vocal in his criticism of China’s export restrictions. In a prior FT article, he warned that, “Why are they trying to pull everyone else down with them?” when discussing China’s industrial-policy stance.• On the negotiations, U.S. officials said: “Today’s talks have concluded. They have been very constructive, and we expect them to resume in the morning.”• The Financial Times characterized the meeting as “high-stakes,” noting the timing — just ahead of the Trump-Xi summit and following weeks of escalating trade tension. The likely summit between Trump and Xi is seen as pivotal — not just for bilateral trade, but for global supply-chains and technology flows. The rare-earth export controls raise broader concerns about industrial decoupling. If this round of talks leads to a breakthrough (or even a tactical de-escalation), it could relieve pressure on markets and global trading partners who are already navigating disruption from previous U.S./China tariff spats. Conversely, failure to bridge key differences — especially on export controls, technology transfer and market access — could trigger a fresh round of escalation, heightening risks for export-oriented economies and commodity markets. Outlook: Negotiators will meet again shortly, with the next substantive milestone being the upcoming Trump/Xi summit. Observers will be watching for (a) any interim agreements on tariff rollbacks or export-control adjustments, (b) language on rare-earths/critical-minerals supply chains, c) whether China signals greater openness to U.S. investment or market-access reforms and d) whether China agrees to purchase U.S. soybeans, sorghum and other commodities.—Economist magazine: China’s triumph in the trade warSays Beijing has outlasted Washington, reshaping global commerce in its image According to The Economist, China has effectively “rebuffed America and rewritten the norms of global commerce” as its trade confrontation with the United States enters a new phase under President Donald Trump’s second term. Despite Washington’s tariffs, export bans, and sanctions, Beijing has not only endured the economic assault but leveraged it to expand its influence and experiment with a new set of trading norms, the article concludes. (The Economist frequently tilts toward items opposing Trump and his policies.) “China is winning the trade war” because it has “learned to escalate and retaliate as effectively as America,” the magazine notes. While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insists China is “weak,” The Economist argues the opposite: “After six months China is breathing more easily than America.” Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs were rolled back after market turmoil, and his subsequent threats of 100% tariffs were never realized. Meanwhile, China has exercised what analysts term “escalatory dominance” — a capacity to retaliate proportionately while avoiding excessive self-harm. Beijing has also developed its own trade weapons. When Washington imposed port levies on Chinese ships, China countered with equivalent port charges and antitrust probes into firms like Google, DuPont, Nvidia, and Qualcomm. Its decision to halt soybean purchases — worth $12 billion to U.S. farmers last year — directly targets Trump’s political base. “On paper Mr. Trump could up the ante,” the article observes, “but he probably won’t; the resulting turmoil in financial markets would hurt America badly.” Beyond retaliation, China is “developing, by trial and error, a new set of global trading norms.” Its export licensing for rare earths — critical for Western manufacturing — represents “a fiercer version of the playbook America has used to control the semiconductor industry.” In the year to September, Chinese exports overall grew 8%, even as shipments to America plunged 27%. Finally, The Economist contends that the conflict has fortified Xi Jinping’s domestic position. “To many Chinese, Mr. Trump’s bullying has vindicated Mr. Xi’s 12-year project to prepare China for a hostile world by becoming a techno-industrial superpower.” The Communist Party’s new five-year plan, discussed this week, is expected to “double down on Mr. Xi’s techno-nationalist approach.” If Trump and Xi meet in South Korea, the magazine predicts any “show of de-escalation” will be superficial. The broader trend, it concludes, is toward a world “of belligerent giants weaponizing their economic power” — and though China may be winning the trade war, “the retreat from open commerce ultimately makes everyone a loser.” —U.S. launches China tariff probe ahead of possible Trump/Xi meetingNew Section 301 investigation revives trade war tensions before likely South Korea summit A new trade investigation into whether China violated the 2020 “Phase One” trade agreement was launched Friday, as expected, by the Trump administration, escalating tensions ahead of Thursday’s possible summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced Friday that the probe will determine whether China fully implemented its commitments under the deal, which required Beijing to increase purchases of American goods — especially agricultural products — and address structural trade barriers. The review, conducted under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, could open the door to new tariffs on Chinese imports. “The investigation will examine whether China has fully implemented its commitments under the Phase One Agreement… and what action, if any, should be taken in response,” USTR said in a statement. China pushed back, with embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu posting on X that Beijing has “scrupulously honored” the accord, while accusing the U.S. of failing to meet its own obligations. However, a 2024 study commissioned by the National Corn Growers Association and the American Soybean Association found that China purchased only $59.2 billion in U.S. agricultural products across 2020–2021 — well short of the $80 billion pledge made in the agreement. The probe adds new friction to already fraught relations. The Trump administration has imposed sweeping restrictions on Chinese tech exports, while Beijing has retaliated with controls on rare earth mineral exports vital to the energy and semiconductor industries. Trump has also threatened a 100% tariff on Chinese goods effective Nov. 1 if Beijing does not ease those curbs. The renewed investigation underscores the stakes of the potential Trump/Xi talks, which could decide whether the temporary truce on tariffs — set to expire in mid-November — holds or collapses into another round of economic confrontation. —Trump, Lula aim for Asia meeting with lower U.S. tariffs possibleBrazil seeks relief from 50% tariffs, including potential easing on beef exports as Trump signals openness to deal President Donald Trump said he expects to meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva during his Asia trip and suggested he is open to reducing the 50% U.S. tariffs imposed on Brazilian goods — a move that could include beef exports, one of Brazil’s top trade priorities. “Under the right circumstances, sure,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One Friday when asked about cutting the tariffs. The comments come as both sides look to arrange a face-to-face discussion on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Malaysia this weekend. According to Bloomberg, Lula’s team is pressing for relief on agricultural exports, particularly beef, which has faced steep U.S. tariffs since the 2024 trade crackdown. Brazil’s government has also been seeking the removal of sanctions targeting several senior officials and Supreme Court justices. “I came here with the intention that we can find a solution,” Lula said Saturday in Kuala Lumpur. “It all depends on the conversation. There are no demands from him, and none from me yet. Let’s lay the issues on the table and try to find a solution.” Lula, who left a Sunday afternoon window open in his ASEAN agenda, emphasized his readiness to make Brazil’s case directly. “I’m fully prepared to defend Brazil’s interests and to show that the tariffs imposed on Brazil were a mistake,” he said Friday while in Indonesia. Trump’s schedule includes a similar gap that could accommodate the meeting. Officials from both sides said any discussion would likely center on restoring agricultural trade flows and reversing punitive measures imposed during earlier rounds of Trump’s tariff campaign. A senior Brazilian trade official told Bloomberg the government’s goal is to “normalize” trade relations by reopening channels for beef, ethanol, and mineral exports, adding that “the president believes personal diplomacy can get it done.” —Canada says it’s ready to resume trade talks when U.S. isCarney signals flexibility after Trump halts negotiations over Ontario’s anti-tariff ad campaign Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Friday his country stands ready to resume trade talks with the U.S. “when the Americans are ready,” after President Donald Trump abruptly terminated negotiations in response to an Ontario-sponsored ad criticizing his tariff policy. Carney said talks had made “real progress” in the steel, aluminum, and energy sectors and could resume quickly once Washington re-engages. “We can’t control U.S. trade policy,” he said before departing for a nine-day trip to Asia. “We recognize that policy has fundamentally changed from the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s.” Trump had announced on social media Thursday night that “ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED”, calling the Ontario ad—featuring spliced clips of Ronald Reagan’s 1987 speech defending free trade—“FAKE.” The Ontario government, led by Premier Doug Ford, said Friday it would pause the campaign starting Monday “so that trade talks can resume.” White House adviser Kevin Hassett told Fox News the talks had “not been very collegial,” adding that Trump was “very frustrated.” The president has imposed tariffs of up to 35% on Canadian products, along with targeted duties on autos and metals. Canada’s economy, heavily dependent on exports to the U.S., has been hit hard, especially in Ontario’s manufacturing and steel hubs. Ford said the ad campaign had “achieved its goal” of sparking debate over tariffs’ economic impact, noting it reached “U.S. audiences at the highest levels.” Trump earlier blasted the ad, citing the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation’s statement that Ontario had “fraudulently used” Reagan’s 1987 radio address on free and fair trade without permission. “ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED,” Trump declared on Truth Social, accusing Ontario of attempting to “interfere with the decision of the U.S. Supreme Court.” The Reagan Foundation said the ad misrepresented Reagan’s remarks, which originally cautioned against overuse of tariffs during a semiconductor dispute with Japan. The foundation said it is reviewing “legal options” and shared the full, unedited 1987 speech online. In that address, Reagan warned that “high tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars,” adding that while tariffs can appear patriotic, they “hurt every American worker and consumer” over time. Both Carney and Trump are expected to attend a working dinner at the APEC summit in Korea next week, creating a potential opening for informal discussions. This marks the second time Trump has cut off talks with Canada in recent months — after briefly halting them in June over Ottawa’s now-scrapped digital services tax. Bottom Line: On Wednesday, Carney spoke to a group of students at the University of Ottawa and some reporters. Repeating what has become a standard line, Carney told the overflow crowd that Canada’s tight economic integration with the United States was never coming back. “Our relationship with the United States will never again be the same,” he said. As an alternative, Carney promised to double Canada’s exports to places other than the United States within a decade. Canadian analysts say it an ambitious target. To achieve it, Canada will have to substantially up its game in Asia. —Food fight: SNAP benefits set to run dry as USDA declines emergency funding amid shutdown42 million Americans could lose food aid by Nov. 1; Democrats denounce move as ‘cruel,’ White House blames opposition for impasse With Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) funds likely to run out by Nov. 1 due to the ongoing government shutdown, USDA has determined it cannot use emergency funds to sustain the program. The lapse could leave 42 million Americans without food assistance, though some states are exploring ways to cover the shortfall. In a memo released amid Democratic lawmakers’ pressure to get USDA to tap the fund, the department reiterated that it would not pay November benefits for SNAP, better known as food stamps. It also told states they wouldn’t be reimbursed if they pay the benefits. “SNAP contingency funds are only available to supplement regular monthly benefits when amounts have been appropriated for, but are insufficient to cover, benefits. The contingency fund is not available to support FY 2026 regular benefits, because the appropriation for regular benefits no longer exists,” the memo says. USDA put these comments on the top of its FNS website:   Democrats blasted the administration’s decision as “cruel” and politically motivated, pointing to other areas where the White House has shifted funds during the shutdown. Legal challenges are likely. The administration, however, maintains that Democrats are to blame for refusing to reopen the government and restore federal operations. Mexico and USDA ag leaders to meet week of Oct. 27 Mexico to push for reopening border but screwworm concerns a big hurdle Mexican Agriculture Secretary Julio Berdegué is expected in Washington to meet with USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins the week of Oct. 27. Rollins has said “we must see additional progress in combatting NWS in Veracruz and other nearby Mexican states in order to reopen livestock ports along the southern border.” USDA maintains restrictive posture on live‑animal imports pending full compliance by Mexico with surveillance, movement controls, and trap monitoring. Recent detections near the border (Nuevo León) and rising national case counts have kept the risk rating elevated.Timeline of Key EventsDateEvent / MilestoneNov 2024Initial NWS outbreak reported in southern Mexico; U.S. monitoring begins.Feb 2025Temporary reopening with enhanced protocols.May 11, 2025USDA suspends imports of live cattle, horses, and bison from Mexico due to NWS risk.Jun 30, 2025USDA announces phased, risk‑based reopening starting as early as July 7.Jul 9–10, 2025New detections (e.g., Veracruz) prompt renewed halt/rollback of reopening plans.Jul 7, 2025Mexico announces $51M sterile‑fly production plant aimed for 1H 2026.Sep 25, 2025US publicly criticizes Mexico; detection <70 miles from U.S. border.Oct 1, 2025Reuters reports 32% jump in NWS cases since Aug; 6,703 confirmed cases as of Sept 13.Oct 23, 2025Report indicates Berdegué to visit Washington “next week” to discuss border reopening (Reuters). —Malaysia seeks 0% chip tariff, eyes critical minerals pact with TrumpKuala Lumpur aims to secure semiconductor exemption and rare earth partnership as U.S. tariffs loom Malaysia is in talks with the Trump administration to ensure its semiconductor exports remain free from new U.S. tariffs, as officials prepare to finalize a trade deal during President Donald Trump’s visit to Kuala Lumpur for the ASEAN summit on Sunday, Bloomberg reported. Investment, Trade and Industry Minister Zafrul Aziz told Bloomberg Television, “It’s zero for now and I hope it continues to be so,” noting that the U.S. is Malaysia’s third-largest market for semiconductor exports. Malaysia currently faces a 19% levy on exports, and Trump has floated tariffs of up to 300% on semiconductors — a move Kuala Lumpur says would be “concerning.” Zafrul also signaled that a critical minerals deal could be announced during Trump’s visit. “It is a possibility,” he said when asked about a potential agreement. The deal would align with Malaysia’s growing ambitions in rare earth mining and processing, key to technologies like electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and electronics. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim recently announced that sovereign wealth fund Khazanah Nasional Bhd. would partner with global companies on downstream rare earth processing, as Malaysia courts investment from China, Japan, Korea, and the United States. —Trump friend donates $130 million to help pay military during shutdownPentagon accepts anonymous gift amid funding crisis, sparking legal and ethical questions The Pentagon confirmed Friday that it accepted a $130 million donation from an unnamed “friend” of President Donald Trump to help pay U.S. military personnel during the ongoing government shutdown. Defense Department spokesperson Sean Parnell said the money was accepted “under its general gift acceptance authority,” though it represents only a small portion of what is owed to troops. Of note: Timothy Mellon, a reclusive billionaire and a major financial backer of President Trump, is the anonymous private donor , according to the New York Times, citing two people familiar with the matter. Mellon, who lives primarily in Wyoming, keeps a low profile despite his prolific political spending, the Times reported. He is also a significant supporter of Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who also ran for president last year. Mellon donated millions to Kennedy’s presidential campaign and has also given money to his anti-vaccine group, Children’s Health Defense. Trump announced the contribution Thursday, describing the donor as “a friend of mine” who “doesn’t really want the recognition.” The Defense Department has not specified how it will legally channel the funds. Under federal ethics rules, any donation above $10,000 must be reviewed to ensure the giver does not have interests that could be substantially affected by the gift. Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) questioned whether the donation violates the Anti-Deficiency Act, which prohibits spending money not appropriated by Congress. Former Senate GOP budget aide Bill Hoagland told CNN the law is “explicit that private donations cannot be used to offset a lapse in appropriations,” casting doubt on whether the funds can legally go toward military pay. The Pentagon said it accepted the donation under the general gift acceptance authority. “The donation was made on the condition that it be used to offset the cost of service members’ salaries and benefits,” Sean Parnell, the Pentagon’s chief spokesman, said in a statement. The $130 million gift covers roughly one-third of one day’s military pay, according to defense analyst Todd Harrison of the American Enterprise Institute. The federal government reportedly spent $6.5 billion on military salaries in the first half of October alone. The shutdown, now in its fourth week, has already led to missed paychecks for other federal employees. Earlier this month, the administration used research funds to pay service members, but it remains unclear how their next pay cycle will be financed. —Air traffic controller sick calls surge as shutdown deepensFAA issues multiple ground stops; unpaid controllers warn fatigue and absences will worsen delays nationwide The Federal Aviation Administration issued three ground stops Thursday evening at major U.S. airports due to staffing shortages, as unpaid air traffic controllers warned that sick calls are increasing and “will only get bigger” if the government shutdown continues — the second-longest in U.S. history. An FAA advisory Friday morning flagged “staffing triggers,” or inadequate personnel levels, at Newark Liberty International Airport and Houston’s TRACON facility, which manages flights in and out of both Bush Intercontinental and Hobby airports. Similar staffing issues grounded flights Thursday at Newark, New York’s LaGuardia, and Houston Bush, and later that evening, nine other control centers were affected. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy acknowledged Thursday that flight delays and cancellations are increasingly likely, saying on Capitol Hill, “It’s going to depend on our air traffic controllers coming in to work every single day.” Controllers said that the workforce is “stressed out and fatigued” and nearing “a breaking point,” with many working 10-hour shifts, six days per week, and taking second jobs on their limited days off to stay afloat. They will receive their first “zero paychecks” on Oct. 28 after a partial check earlier this month. Before the shutdown, controller shortages accounted for about 5% of flight delays, but that number has surged to 53%, Duffy said on Fox News earlier this month. The FAA, citing lack of funding, has stopped responding to media inquiries. The National Air Traffic Controllers Association president Nick Daniels said fatigue is becoming a safety concern as the workload remains unsustainable. “We’re all going to be faced with a tough decision,” said Washington, D.C.-based controller Pete Lefevre. “On my one day off, am I going to drive for Uber so I can make my payments?” The U.S. Travel Association estimates the shutdown has cost the economy $3.3 billion in lost travel spending — roughly $1 billion per week  —since it began. Congress remains deadlocked after dueling bills to pay some or all federal workers failed.

—Equities Friday and weekly change: 

All three indexes notched new records Friday, spurred higher by a much-awaited inflation report that came in cooler than expected. This was the S&P’s 34th record close of the year; the Nasdaq’s 33rd record close, and the Dow’s 13th. Investors are still riding the bull market, encouraged by a strong earnings season that carries into next week.

—BlackRock’s Rieder sees inflation cooling, paving way for Fed rate cuts. Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of BlackRock’s Global Fixed Income and head of the firm’s Global Allocation Investment Team, said he expects inflation to continue moderating over the coming year — a trend reflected in recent moves in inflation breakevens. “We think the overall inflation trend can continue to moderate over the next year, as inflation breakevens have recently suggested, allowing the Fed to maintain its bias toward rate cuts,” Rieder wrote. He added that current pricing pressures, such as those stemming from tariffs, are widely viewed as a “one-time price shock” that the Federal Reserve can look beyond in shaping its policy outlook.

—From hedge-fund whiz to Treasury hard-liner: Scott Bessent’s bold gamble

As Scott Bessent revamps the Treasury Dept under President Trump, he insists markets remain calm — but critics warn the façade may mask deeper fractures

From his office overlooking the White House, Scott Bessent has framed his message succinctly: “Where the hell is the market risk? … They’ve just been wrong.” Since assuming the job as U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent has become the embodiment of the administration’s hard-edged economic turn — championing tariffs, deregulation of crypto, unleashing the IRS on fringe organizations and drafting a multibillion-dollar rescue for Argentina.

He acknowledges the tension. “We want the most America-first policies that are possible, without incurring market wrath,” he told the Financial Times. And he added, perhaps more pointedly: “What gets the people in trouble is they come in, they have these ideas, but they don’t respect the market… you’ve got to respect the market.”

A new tone for Treasury. Bessent stands out in his own words: “Unlike most of my predecessors I have a very healthy skepticism of elite institutions and elite opinion.” That attitude dovetails neatly with the broader MAGA-style economic agenda: assertive trade moves, a stronger stance on industrial policy, and a willingness to mix political and market-outlook signaling in ways that previous Treasury secretaries shied from.

Market reaction — so far, so steady. Despite the aggressive policy pivot, markets have behaved. For Bessent, this is a kind of vindication: the markets did not waver under the new regime.

But that calm itself invites scrutiny — is it a lull or a false sense of security? Former Treasury officials warn that the political overlay risks undermining the department’s technical credibility. One cautioned: “If Treasury is viewed as an overly politicized institution… it loses face or credibility with markets and with market participants in a way that has, I think, serious and substantive ramifications.”

Bessent has arguably been seen as a stabilizing force (or “buffer”) amid the administration’s broader populist thrust. A Wall Street lobbyist described him as “our id” in the corner of CEOs — a protector of the market undercurrents even as the rhetoric runs hard.

But the backdrop is still rocky. The dollar has weakened noticeably — signaling underlying strain notwithstanding the equity market strength. Job growth has slowed, inflation remains above target and the debt dynamics are deteriorating.

The events of April — where sweeping tariffs were announced then swiftly paused — hinted at policy volatility. Bessent admitted that the announcement was part of leverage, telling the FT that the president “had always planned to announce high levies… and then bring them down.”

Critics ask: what happens when markets demand more than confidence calls? As one former official put it: “If markets are looking for Bessent to be a guardrail I think they are looking for too much.”

For analysts of policy, trade and economics, this shift under Bessent is a major inflection: He is repositioning Treasury not just as a technical adviser, but as a political actor aligned with the MAGA economic agenda. The interplay of market expectations, policy credence and institutional independence is being re-tested. If markets remain benign, that may reinforce further departures from orthodoxy. But if the calm breaks, the consequences for inflation, debt, the dollar and Treasury credibility could be notable.

Outlook: Scott Bessent’s stewardship of the Treasury is bold, unconventional and deeply political. He is betting that markets will tolerate — or even embrace — the administration’s aggressive vision. But the underlying question remains: when will the market risk show up? For now, Bessent’s retort stands: “They’ve just been wrong.”

—Brazil’s corn ethanol boom is pushing global sugar prices to four-year lows

As corn-based biofuel surges, Brazilian sugar-cane mills are forced to pivot toward sugar production — driving a steep drop in world prices and reshaping global sweetener markets.

A rapid expansion of corn ethanol production in Brazil is reshaping the country’s biofuel and sugar industries — and reverberating through global commodity markets. The surge in corn-based fuel has lured mills away from ethanol production, prompting them to divert record volumes of sugar cane toward sweetener output, Bloomberg reports.

The result: global sugar prices have tumbled to their lowest in four years, with futures falling as much as 2.4% on Friday and extending a 22% decline for 2025, the biggest annual drop since 2017. Commodity group StoneX expects worldwide sugar output to exceed consumption by 2.8 million metric tons this marketing year, reversing last season’s deficit. “The problem with the market today is that we have another element which is corn ethanol,” said Jeremy Austin, Brazil director for trader Sucres et Denrées, during São Paulo’s Sugar Week. “The price forecast is not going to be amazing.”

With corn ethanol now cheaper to produce than sugar-cane ethanol, mills such as Raízen SA and São Martinho SA are locked into sugar production even as margins shrink. Cane-based ethanol’s share of Brazil’s fuel market continues to erode—corn-based ethanol will make up 32% of Brazil’s biofuel output in the 2025–26 season, up from 23% this year, StoneX data show.

Consulting firm Datagro projects cane millers will churn out a record 43 million metric tons of sugar from next year’s harvest, up 4.6% from last year, while shares of Brazil’s top processors — Raízen, São Martinho, and Jalles Machado SA—have plunged between 37% and 56% this year. Datagro economist Bruno Wanderley de Freitas summed up the trend: “Brazilian cane millers will have no other choice but to make more sugar.”

—Agriculture markets Friday and weekly change:

—Oil prices slipped Friday after rally as traders question impact of U.S. sanctions on Russia

Brent and WTI notch biggest weekly gains since June despite late-session pullback

Brent crude futures fell 5 cents to settle at $65.94 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 29 cents to $61.50, trimming gains after two days of sharp rallies. Both benchmarks still ended the week more than 7% higher, marking their strongest weekly performance since mid-June.

The market initially surged on Thursday after the U.S. imposed sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, but prices eased later as traders questioned the durability and enforcement of the measures. The sanctions, designed to pressure President Vladimir Putin over the war in Ukraine, hit companies responsible for over 5% of global oil output. In response, Chinese refiners suspended short-term Russian purchases, while Indian refiners — Russia’s top seaborne buyers — scaled back imports. Still, market analysts noted that Russia could redirect exports elsewhere and that OPEC was prepared to boost production if needed. Putin called the sanctions an “unfriendly act” but insisted they would not seriously damage Russia’s economy.

—Cheap gas gives Trump a win — but experts warn it may not last

Falling prices delight consumers, but sanctions and weak demand could flip the market again

Gasoline prices have dropped to just over $3 per gallon — a welcome relief for consumers and a political win for President Donald Trump, who pledged to bring energy costs down. But experts warn the reprieve may not last, as global supply dynamics and U.S. sanctions on Russia introduce new uncertainties.

According to AAA, the national average stood at $3.07 per gallon on Friday, down from $3.16 a month ago and well below the highs of more than $5 seen in summer 2022. The main reason: oil markets are awash in supply. “OPEC+ has restored 2.2 million barrels a day of voluntary production cuts,” said Andrew Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates, adding that with weak demand, the market is “quite oversupplied.”

Seasonal demand declines have also helped, offering some inflation relief as food and electricity prices continue to climb. Yet, the same low prices are hitting drillers hard — prompting layoffs and reduced investment. “It’s going to be tough to convince people to ‘drill, baby, drill’ in the next 15 months,” said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at Turner, Mason & Company, describing the current “bust” phase of the industry’s boom-bust cycle.

The Trump administration has embraced the downturn, with the President declaring, “Energy is way down… you’re going to see $2 gasoline very soon.” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum went further, saying lower oil prices could help “break Russia,” one of the world’s largest producers.

Still, the administration’s new sanctions on Russian oil could change the equation. Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, warned that if the measures prove effective, they “could lead to a sharp increase in prices.”

For now, the U.S. continues to pump at record levels — 13.6 million barrels per day in July — even as companies tread carefully. Whether cheap gas lasts may hinge on the success, or failure, of Trump’s latest geopolitical gamble.

—Argentina votes amid crisis and U.S. pressure

Trump’s bailout comments loom over Milei’s high-stakes midterms

Argentina heads to the polls Sunday in a crucial midterm election that will decide the fate of President Javier Milei’s libertarian experiment, as voters weigh two turbulent years of austerity, corruption scandals, and a collapsing peso. The election unfolds under the shadow of alleged interference by President Donald Trump, whose warnings about withdrawing a $40 billion U.S. bailout have sparked outrage in Buenos Aires.

Milei — who swept to power in 2023 promising to slash spending and inflation—has seen some success in cooling triple-digit price growth but now faces widespread disillusionment and political turmoil. Recent corruption allegations involving his sister and chief-of-staff, Karina Milei, and a humiliating provincial defeat in Buenos Aires have weakened his party, La Libertad Avanza.

Trump, Milei’s strongest foreign ally, told reporters that “Argentina is fighting for its life … They are dying,” and warned that U.S. aid could be withdrawn if Milei fares poorly: “If he doesn’t win, we’re gone.” Critics across Argentina condemned the comments as coercive. Peronist lawmaker Itai Hagman called the remarks “a clear interference in the internal affairs of another country,” vowing that voters would “defend their sovereignty and democracy.”

Analysts expect Milei’s coalition to suffer losses but not collapse. Gustavo Córdoba of Zuban Córdoba predicted voters would punish Milei for “economic hardship,” while Benjamin Gedan of the Stimson Center warned that a poor showing could trigger “a real economic and financial crisis and another run on the peso.” A mixed result, Gedan added, might let Milei survive politically but would make “continuing to transform Argentina in any sustainable way” increasingly difficult.

Supporters argue Milei needs time. “We cannot solve 100 years of problems in two,” said Gonzalo Roca, a leading Freedom Advance candidate. But for many Argentinians struggling to make ends meet, Milei’s “shock therapy” has tested the limits of patience — and Sunday’s vote will reveal whether that patience has run out.

—Health activists ramp up war on processed foods amid MAHA movement

Nutrition reformers target additives and “ultra-processed” marketing as HHS weighs new food safety standards

Health advocates inspired by the “Make America Healthy Again” (MAHA) movement are intensifying efforts to curb the influence of processed foods, which researchers link to obesity, type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and even cognitive decline, The Hill reported. Dr. Joel “Gator” Warsh, a pediatrician and author, told The Hill’s sister network NewsNation that conditions like type 2 diabetes—once confined to adults—are now appearing regularly in children. “It’s literally called adult-onset — it wasn’t something you really ever saw in kids, even 40 or 50 years ago, and now we’re seeing it all the time in kids,” he said.

The movement builds on decades of advocacy stretching back to the 1970s, from Michelle Obama’s “Let’s Move!” campaign to Michael Bloomberg’s soda-size restrictions. Despite those efforts, obesity rates have continued to climb.

Vani Hari, a prominent voice in the MAHA campaign and author of The Food Babe blog, says the change this time is coming “from the bottom up.” “It starts with moms,” Hari told The Hill. “People are looking at ingredient lists more than ever. Over 60 percent of Americans now are looking at ingredient labels.”

Hari has also pushed Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to tighten food safety standards, arguing that major companies are already moving in the right direction. “Over 60% of the food companies in America have voluntarily said that they were going to remove artificial food dyes,” she said. “Huge companies like Kraft Heinz, General Mills, Kellogg’s, and Tyson have made the commitment.”

But Hari warned of a growing backlash from groups she says are aligned with food industry interests. “There’s a new group called the Americans for Ingredient Transparency,” she said. “It sounds very humble and nice … but actually they’re trying to take away our right to do state and local food chemical reform.” In a statement to NewsNation, Americans for Ingredient Transparency countered that “states are now implementing their own patchwork of contradictory ingredient rules” and that their goal is “to cut through confusion and ensure everyone has access to clear information.”

The clash over food additives and state-level regulation marks a new phase in the MAHA movement — one where federal health officials, industry groups, and grassroots activists are all jockeying to define what “healthy” means for the American diet.

— NWS outlook: Atmospheric river activity across the Pacific Northwest continues

through Sunday with heavy lower elevation rain and hazardous mountain snow

expected… …Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue to bring a flash

flood and severe weather threat from the Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley today and into Sunday… …Coastal storm to generate periods of rain and thunderstorms in the Southeast on Monday; generally drier than normal and cooler than normal temperatures continue in the Northeast; warmer than normal in the

Southwest.