Trump: Trade Will Dominate Xi Summit Agenda Despite Iran War

U.S. producer prices surge in April | Fertilizer hearing | E15 vote in House | Bessent, He hold last-minute talks ahead of Trump/Xi summit

Link: FAPRI Analysis Raises New Concerns Over House E15
         and Small Refinery Exemption Proposal

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, May 9
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, May 9

TOP STORIES

— Trump signals trade will dominate Xi summit agenda despite Iran war: President Donald Trump said trade, investment, agricultural purchases and broader economic coordination — not the Iran conflict — will dominate discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping as both sides seek to stabilize relations and potentially extend the current trade truce.

— Bessent, He hold last-minute talks ahead of Trump/Xi summit: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held nearly four hours of private talks in South Korea ahead of the Beijing summit, signaling intense behind-the-scenes negotiations over trade, tariffs, energy cooperation and economic coordination.

— Lawmakers push for binding Trump/Xi agreements ahead of Beijing summit: Sens. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) warned that any U.S./China agreements should include enforcement mechanisms and congressional ratification to ensure long-term durability beyond the Trump administration.

— What others are saying about U.S. farm exports and China summit: Analysts and policy groups said China could announce new soybean purchases during the summit, though skepticism remains over whether Beijing would fully follow through on any agricultural commitments.

— U.S. beef export push to China sparks debate as imports surge: The U.S. cattle sector is debating whether the Trump administration should prioritize expanding beef exports to China while domestic cattle supplies remain historically tight and beef imports from Brazil and Australia continue rising sharply.

— U.S. beef industry pushes for full China market reopening ahead of Trump visit: The U.S. Meat Export Federation urged the Trump administration to secure a comprehensive reopening of China’s market for U.S. beef, arguing restrictions are costing the industry billions annually and benefiting competitors like Brazil and Australia.

— Lawmakers, farm groups push House to pass year-round E15 bill: A bipartisan coalition of lawmakers, farmers and biofuel groups urged House passage of legislation allowing nationwide year-round E15 sales, arguing it would boost corn demand, lower fuel prices and strengthen rural economies.

— CBO: E15 bill would increase deficit by $2.3 billion over 10 years: The Congressional Budget Office said the E15 legislation would increase federal deficits because Renewable Fuel Standard changes would weaken soybean oil demand and increase farm program spending despite modest gains in corn demand.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today: U.S. equity futures rose overnight amid strength in technology and semiconductor shares, while investors monitored Federal Reserve speakers, Treasury auctions and geopolitical developments tied to China and Iran.

— Equities yesterday: U.S. stock indexes finished mixed Tuesday as the Dow edged higher while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 weakened amid rising bond yields and inflation concerns.

— U.S. producer prices surge in April: U.S. producer prices jumped 1.4% in April — the largest monthly increase since 2022 — driven by surging energy costs, transportation expenses and wholesale service prices tied partly to Middle East disruptions.

— Mortgage rates edge higher as Treasury yields stay elevated: Mortgage rates climbed to their highest level since early April as Treasury yields remained elevated, though purchase loan demand rebounded modestly despite affordability pressures.

— Senate moves toward confirming Warsh as Federal Reserve chair: The Senate advanced Kevin Warsh toward becoming the next Federal Reserve chair as debate intensified over Jerome Powell’s transition and future interest rate policy direction.

AGRIBUSINESS

— Corteva seed spinoff Vylor to headquarter in Iowa: Corteva announced its new seed company Vylor will be headquartered in Johnston, Iowa, reconnecting the business with the historic home of Pioneer Hi-Bred and delivering a major win for Iowa’s bioscience sector.

AG MARKETS

— Overnight grain markets mixed as wheat strength offsets pressure in corn and soy oil: Wheat futures continued leading grain markets higher overnight as global supply concerns and worsening Plains weather supported hard red winter wheat prices.

— International grain prices rise as wheat supply concerns intensify ahead of Trump/Xi Summit: Global grain markets strengthened as tightening wheat supplies, Black Sea weather risks and expectations surrounding Chinese import demand supported world grain values.

— USDA delivers opening salvo on 2026/27 crops: USDA’s first official 2026/27 supply-and-demand forecasts showed severe drought damage to winter wheat, tighter global corn stocks and rising biofuel-driven soybean demand, creating a more bullish commodity outlook.

— Agriculture markets yesterday: Grain futures rallied sharply Tuesday, led by limit-up wheat markets following bullish USDA production estimates and tightening global supply expectations.

FARM POLICY

— PLC payments could drop sharply in 2026 despite expanded base acres: Farm policy analyst Paul Neiffer warned that PLC payments could fall below $3 billion in 2026 as improving commodity prices and crop conditions reduce eligibility for support payments.

— Senate Ag targets June release for farm bill text, markup: Senate Agriculture Committee Chair Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.) said lawmakers are targeting June for releasing farm bill text as bipartisan negotiations continue over SNAP, commodity programs and conservation funding.

FERTILIZER

— Senate Ag hearing highlights mounting pressure from fertilizer costs, supply risks: Senators, farm groups and industry leaders warned that rising fertilizer costs, geopolitical disruptions, market concentration and supply chain instability are worsening financial stress across U.S. agriculture.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Oil market stabilizes after sharp rally as IEA warns of severe supply tightness: Oil prices steadied after a major rally as the International Energy Agency warned that global crude inventories are falling at record rates amid continuing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

— Tuesday: Oil markets rebuild risk premium as Hormuz disruptions deepen: Crude oil surged Tuesday after President Trump said Iran ceasefire talks were on “life support” and the EIA warned Hormuz disruptions could persist well into 2027.

— FAPRI report highlights trade-offs in House E15 and refinery exemption proposal: A University of Missouri FAPRI analysis concluded that expanded E15 use could boost corn demand while refinery exemptions may weaken soybean oil demand and reduce overall farm income.

TRADE POLICY

— Tariff refund process accelerates as importers recover billions in overturned duties: U.S. Customs has now cleared more than $35 billion in tariff refunds following court rulings overturning Trump-era IEEPA tariffs, marking one of the largest trade repayment efforts in U.S. history.

— Federal appeals court temporarily reinstates Trump tariffs pending review: A federal appeals court temporarily reinstated Trump’s 10% global tariffs under Section 122 while broader legal challenges over presidential trade authority continue.

— USTR pushes ‘fortress North America’ strategy ahead of USMCA review: Deputy USTR Jeffrey Goettman outlined a tougher North American trade strategy focused on stricter origin rules, stronger regional supply chains and coordinated tariffs against Asian imports.

PERSONNEL

— Makary resigns as FDA commissioner after turbulent tenure: FDA Commissioner Dr. Marty Makary resigned after a contentious 13-month tenure marked by disputes over vaccines, vaping policy and political interference in scientific decision-making.

TOP STORIES—Trump signals trade will dominate Xi summit agenda despite Iran warPresident Donald Trump says trade, investment and economic ties — not the Iran conflict — will be the central focus of his upcoming summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, even as global energy markets remain under pressure from the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption Speaking Tuesday before departing for Beijing, Trump emphasized that discussions with Xi would center primarily on trade and the future structure of U.S./China economic relations. Trump said the administration is seeking additional business agreements and further development of a proposed “board of trade” mechanism designed to manage commercial ties between the world’s two largest economies.Trump also suggested that extending the current U.S./China trade truce reached last fall would likely be part of the negotiations. The talks come amid continued efforts by both governments to stabilize relations after years of tariff disputes, export controls, and supply chain tensions. While the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have created major volatility across global oil and shipping markets, Trump attempted to minimize the issue’s importance within the summit discussions. He told reporters the U.S. has Iran “very much under control” and indicated the administration views the conflict as manageable through either diplomacy or continued pressure. The comments marked a shift in emphasis after earlier indications that Trump intended to press Beijing over its relationship with Tehran. China remains one of Iran’s largest oil customers and has repeatedly called for the reopening of Hormuz, where shipping traffic remains heavily restricted amid U.S. naval operations and Iranian countermeasures. Meanwhile, the energy crisis created by the conflict continues to ripple through global markets. Disruptions to crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments have tightened supplies worldwide, contributing to elevated fuel prices and increasing pressure on major consuming nations, including China. Trump nonetheless struck an optimistic tone regarding his relationship with Xi, describing ties between the two leaders as strong and saying cooperation with China has recently been “very good.” The summit is expected to cover a wide range of issues beyond tariffs, including investment flows, agricultural trade, energy purchases, and broader economic coordination.—Bessent, He hold last-minute talks ahead of Trump/Xi summitTreasury Secretary, Chinese Vice Premier meet in South Korea as both sides prepare for high stakes Beijing discussions on trade and economic cooperation U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held nearly four hours of talks Wednesday in a VIP room at Incheon International Airport in South Korea, underscoring the intense behind-the-scenes diplomacy underway ahead of the highly anticipated summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. According to China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency, the discussions were described as “candid, in-depth and constructive exchanges” focused on economic and trade issues of mutual concern, as well as efforts to expand practical cooperation between the world’s two largest economies. The Biden administration did not immediately release its own readout of the meeting, reinforcing the sense that both sides are deliberately limiting public disclosures before the formal Trump-Xi sessions begin. The airport meeting appeared designed to smooth remaining differences and narrow negotiating gaps before the leaders convene in Beijing beginning Thursday. Trade remains the dominant issue hanging over the summit, with both governments seeking to stabilize bilateral relations after years of tariff disputes, supply chain tensions, export controls, and growing geopolitical rivalry. The quiet diplomacy between Bessent and He also reflects the growing importance of economic coordination as both countries confront slowing global growth, elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict, and continued uncertainty surrounding tariffs, technology restrictions, and industrial policy. Officials on both sides have signaled interest in expanding what the Trump administration has described as a potential “Board of Trade” framework intended to manage commercial disputes and deepen selected areas of cooperation. Meanwhile, the White House itinerary highlights the symbolic and strategic importance being attached to the summit. President Trump is scheduled to arrive in Beijing Wednesday evening, with formal meetings beginning Thursday morning. The schedule includes bilateral talks with Xi, an official banquet Thursday night, and additional tea and lunch meetings Friday before Trump departs later that afternoon. The summit is expected to center heavily on trade negotiations, possible extensions of the current tariff truce, agricultural purchases, energy cooperation, and broader economic engagement. The discussions also come amid heightened global attention on China’s role in Middle East diplomacy and the ongoing disruptions tied to the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. While few specifics have emerged from the Bessent/He discussions, the decision to hold a lengthy private session immediately before the leaders’ summit suggests both governments are attempting to maximize the chances of announcing tangible economic progress once Trump and Xi meet face-to-face in Beijing.—Lawmakers push for binding Trump/Xi agreements ahead of Beijing summitSenators warn that any U.S./China deal lacking congressional ratification and enforcement mechanisms could unravel after the Trump administration ends, while bipartisan concerns persist over export controls, trade policy, and China’s global influenceSen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) argued this week that any agreements reached between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping during their upcoming Beijing summit should be legally binding, include strong enforcement mechanisms, and receive congressional ratification to ensure long-term durability.  Speaking at the Brookings Institution, Tillis (R-N.C.) said China could otherwise simply wait until the next U.S. administration to renegotiate terms. Shaheen (D-N.H.) echoed those concerns, warning that Congress has increasingly “abdicated” its role on China policy despite years of bipartisan alignment viewing China as the United States’ top economic and military competitor. The senators also raised broader concerns ahead of the summit, with Tillis warning that China’s overseas infrastructure investments reflect Beijing’s long-term geopolitical ambitions. Shaheen cited a recent Senate Foreign Relations Committee Democratic report arguing that Trump administration trade and diplomatic policies have weakened U.S. alliances and undermined America’s economic competitiveness relative to China. A major point of bipartisan concern involved U.S. export controls and advanced semiconductor technology. Shaheen criticized the Trump administration’s January decision to ease restrictions on advanced AI chip exports to China, while Tillis said export controls alone are unlikely to prevent China from obtaining sensitive technology over time.—What others are saying about U.S. farm exports and China summit:• The Council on Foreign Relations said China will likely announce or reaffirm buying commitments for soybeans at the summit. Still, it says, the proposed 25 million metric ton annual purchase would be below the five-year average from 2020 to 2024.•Analysts at the Brookings Institution said expectations for the summit should remain low, since the relationship remains fragile. Many Chinese analysts expect a U.S. snap back to a more competitive China policy, either after the midterms or after Trump steps down in 2029, according to the Brookings Institution.• Naysayers usually note that even if China signals willingness to buy more farm products, details like timelines, volumes, pricing — and whether it follows through on its purchase commitments — still leaves room for uncertainty. The naysayers also frequently say that China’s future purchase of U.S. soybeans are likely to remain below historical norms.—U.S. beef export push to China sparks debate as imports surgeIndustry groups defend China market access strategy even as Brazil and Australia ship record beef volumes into the U.S. An increasingly uncomfortable debate is emerging within the U.S. cattle and beef sector as the Trump administration weighs steps that could allow additional beef imports while U.S. officials simultaneously continue pushing for expanded American beef exports to China. Some cattle producers, market analysts and policy observers are questioning why the United States is aggressively pursuing export growth into China at a time when domestic cattle supplies remain historically tight and retail beef prices continue climbing. According to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), the answer centers on maximizing the value of every animal produced in the United States by exporting cuts and variety meats that are less heavily consumed domestically but command stronger premiums overseas, particularly in Asia. The debate comes as China’s safeguard tariff system increasingly pressures major beef suppliers. USMEF reported that, as of May 9, Brazil had already utilized 50% of its 1.1 million metric ton safeguard volume into China. Brazil exported 461,000 metric tons of beef to China during the first four months of 2026, up 19% from a year earlier, after shipping another 513,000 metric tons during the final quarter of 2025. China’s safeguard (SG) will add an additional 55% to imports of Brazilian beef, which is currently subject to the 12% MFN rate, so the total tariff on Brazilian beef into China will be 67% once the SG volume is utilized. Australia is also rapidly approaching China’s safeguard threshold. USMEF said Australia had utilized 50% of its 205,000 metric ton safeguard level as of March 25 and was expected to reach the critical 80% threshold within roughly 10 days. Australian beef exports to China during January through April totaled 106,000 metric tons, up 36% from the same period last year. Meanwhile, both Australia and Brazil are simultaneously shipping large and growing volumes of beef into the United States. According to USMEF data, the United States is Australia’s largest beef export market, with Australian exports to the U.S. totaling 147,000 metric tons during the first four months of 2026, up 13% from a year earlier. Brazil has also sharply expanded shipments into the U.S. market. The United States is now Brazil’s second-largest beef export destination, with Brazilian exports to the U.S. reaching 150,000 metric tons during January through April, up 10% year-over-year. Brazil has continued shipping beef into the United States even after filling the 52,000 metric ton “others” quota early in January, with additional volumes facing a 26.4% duty. Australia, by contrast, maintains duty-free access through its free trade agreement with the United States. USMEF argues that regardless of future U.S. tariff policy, Brazil and Australia are expected to continue sending record volumes of beef into the American market, especially if Chinese safeguard mechanisms trigger substantially higher duties on shipments into China. Industry officials noted that Australian beef could soon face an additional 55% duty in China once safeguard thresholds are exceeded. That dynamic, according to USMEF, creates what it sees as a strategic opening for U.S. beef exports into China’s premium market segment. The organization argued that China’s high-end beef buyers may increasingly look toward U.S. product if Australian beef becomes substantially more expensive. USMEF emphasized that U.S. beef currently faces a lower effective import duty into China — approximately 22%, including retaliatory tariffs — compared to the potential 55% additional duty looming over Australian shipments once safeguard triggers are reached. Of note: The U.S. is subject to China’s new beef safeguard as well, but the country-specific SG volumes are based on historic trade- average annual imports from mid-2021 to mid-2024, and thus the SG is not an immediate concern for U.S. beef, even if we regain access to China. The organization also stressed that China remains the world’s largest beef importing country, making access to that market economically important even during periods of tight U.S. cattle inventories. USMEF maintains that exports are designed not to reduce domestic supply, but rather to improve overall carcass value by selling specific cuts and products into markets where demand and pricing are stronger than in the United States. Still, the issue is becoming politically sensitive as U.S. consumers continue facing elevated beef prices and as policymakers debate whether trade policy should prioritize domestic food supply concerns over export expansion opportunities.Facts and figures: On Nov. 13, 2025, the “reciprocal” tariffs on all beef imports were removed. This next step would reportedly remove all import tariffs, which have been long established through the Uruguay Round of the WTO and through subsequent trade agreements. The biggest impact will be on Brazil, the largest supplier of beef into the U.S., even when subject to the full 26.4% out-of-quota tariff rate. But it will impact all non-FTA suppliers, including New Zealand, Uruguay, Paraguay, Argentina, the European Union, the United Kingdom and Japan. These countries have been exporting under country-specific tariff rate quotas (New Zealand, Uruguay, Argentina and the UK), and under the “others” TRQ which was filled in the first couple days of the year (Brazil, Paraguay, the EU and Japan). Imports from Australia, Canada, Mexico and Central America were already essentially unlimited, receiving duty-free treatment through the respective free trade agreements. Currently, for countries without FTAs, the in-quota rate is minimal at 4.4 c/kg, while the out-of-quota rate is 26.4%. It is unclear whether both the in-quota and out-of-quota tariffs will be suspended. U.S. imports of beef in the first quarter totaled 556,300 mt, up 15.5% from last year’s record pace and led by: Brazil (118,900 mt, +11%), Australia (110,860 mt, +12%), Canada (79,680 mt, -7%), Mexico (71,130 mt, +21%), New Zealand (56,000 mt, -1%), Uruguay (38,845 mt, +26%), Paraguay (31,585 mt, +117%), Nicaragua (22,333 mt, +76%) and Argentina (20,259 mt, +91%). Argentina was already benefiting from its newly expanded access (additional 20,000 mt per quarter), but that advantage disappears with any suspension of all tariffs. The same will be true for the UK, whose carve-out of access (13,000 mt of the “others” quota) is now meaningless.   U.S. beef industry pushes for full China market reopening ahead of Trump visitUSMEF says partial measures will not restore meaningful access as industry warns of billions in lost value and growing competitive pressure from Brazil and Australia The U.S. Meat Export Federation is urging the Trump administration to pursue a full reopening of China’s market to U.S. beef ahead of President Donald Trump’s upcoming visit to China, arguing that current restrictions are costing the U.S. cattle and beef sector billions of dollars annually and allowing global competitors to gain market share. According to the organization’s Exporter Committee position paper, China’s market remains effectively closed to U.S. beef despite commitments made under the U.S./China Phase One Agreement. The industry is calling for a comprehensive resolution that includes updating expired U.S. plant registrations in China’s CIFER system, relisting suspended facilities, changing China’s testing protocol for MGA residues, and establishing a more predictable and timely process for relisting facilities after corrective actions are completed. The document argues that partial action by China would not meaningfully reopen the market. Even if China only updated CIFER registrations, roughly 24 U.S. slaughter facilities would remain eligible while another 23 facilities would still be suspended. Meanwhile, ongoing uncertainty surrounding China’s residue testing policies would likely discourage many exporters from shipping product into the market. USMEF contends that restoring access to China would not raise costs for American consumers because the products most commonly exported to China are cuts and variety meats with relatively limited domestic demand. These include short plates, short ribs, rib fingers, omasum, honeycomb tripe, and other offal products. The organization argues that exports help maximize total carcass value, which in turn supports producer profitability, processing plant utilization, and long-term herd rebuilding. The paper states that when export value is captured overseas, production costs are spread across more portions of the animal, reducing pricing pressure on cuts more commonly consumed by American households. USMEF also emphasized that China accounted for only about 2% of total U.S. beef production even at peak export levels in 2022, arguing that China does not directly compete with American consumers for core domestic beef supplies such as steaks, roasts, and ground beef. Instead, the industry says U.S. producers are competing against exporters from Brazil, Australia, Argentina, and Uruguay for access to the Chinese market. The paper warns that the loss of the China market has already reduced export premiums sharply, with estimated industry losses ranging from $150 to $165 per fed head, or roughly $3.5 billion to $4 billion annually. The organization also cautioned that weaker export demand could increase the risk of plant closures and shift reductions across the U.S. beef processing sector. Meanwhile, USMEF notes that China’s current beef safeguard measures are reshaping global trade flows by pushing more Brazilian and Australian beef into the United States and other export markets. USMEF argues that as competing suppliers eventually fill their Chinese safeguard allocations, opportunities could emerge for U.S. beef — particularly with Chinese customers and American-owned retailers operating in China, including Sam’s Club and Costco.  —Lawmakers, farm groups push House to pass year-round E15 billBipartisan coalition says expanded E15 access would boost corn demand, lower fuel costs, and strengthen rural economies ahead of key House vote A bipartisan group of lawmakers, farmers, and biofuel industry leaders gathered outside the Capitol on Tuesday to urge the U.S. House of Representatives to pass legislation allowing nationwide year-round sales of E15 gasoline blends, arguing the measure would provide relief to both consumers and struggling farm producers. The House is scheduled to vote today (May 13) on HR 1346, the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act, which would remove long-standing seasonal restrictions on the sale of gasoline blended with 15% ethanol. Supporters say the legislation would expand domestic markets for corn-based ethanol while helping lower gasoline prices during a period of elevated fuel costs and weak farm income.  CBO: E15 bill would increase deficit by $2.3 billion over 10 yearsBudget score ties higher farm program costs to weaker soybean demand and lower crop prices under revised Renewable Fuel Standard provisions The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said HR1346 — the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act of 2025 — would increase the federal deficit by an estimated $2.27 billion over the 2026-2036 period, largely because changes to the Renewable Fuel Standard would weaken demand for biomass-based diesel, pressure crop prices, and increase farm program payments. Link The legislation would permanently allow year-round sales of E15 gasoline while also restructuring small refinery exemptions under the Renewable Fuel Standard. CBO estimated the bill would increase direct spending by about $2.66 billion while increasing revenues by roughly $392 million over the 10-year window. CBO said the budget impact stems primarily from reduced demand for biomass-based diesel, particularly renewable diesel made from soybean oil. Under the bill, EPA would no longer be allowed to reallocate certain exempted renewable fuel obligations to larger refiners, reducing overall renewable fuel demand. According to the analysis, the resulting decline in soybean demand would outweigh the modest increase in corn demand associated with expanded year-round E15 sales. CBO concluded the net effect would be lower prices for both soybeans and corn, with spillover impacts on wheat and grain sorghum markets as well. The lower commodity price outlook would significantly increase projected costs for USDA commodity support programs. CBO estimated Agriculture Risk Coverage, Price Loss Coverage, and marketing-assistance loan programs would collectively increase federal spending by roughly $8 billion over the period before sequestration adjustments. After accounting for sequestration effects and offsets elsewhere, net farm support spending would still rise substantially. Meanwhile, CBO estimated federal crop insurance costs would decline by roughly $1.3 billion because lower crop prices reduce insured liability values. The report noted that allowing year-round E15 sales by itself would tend to reduce the deficit because higher ethanol blending would modestly increase corn demand and gasoline consumption, boosting federal gasoline tax revenues. However, CBO said those positive effects were more than offset by the broader Renewable Fuel Standard changes affecting biomass-based diesel markets. CBO also highlighted substantial uncertainty surrounding the estimate, including the pace of E15 adoption, the number of refinery exemptions ultimately granted, future crop market conditions, and production levels for renewable diesel and ethanol.    Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D-Ill.) said year-round E15 would provide long-awaited certainty for farmers and rural communities. She described the measure as a bipartisan effort that would strengthen demand for homegrown corn, reduce costs at the pump, and support economic growth across rural America. Rep. Adrian Smith (R-Neb.), sponsor of the legislation, argued Congress has an opportunity to simultaneously lower fuel prices, expand markets for biofuels, and strengthen U.S. energy independence through passage of the bill. House Ag Committee Vice Ranking Member Rep. Shontel Brown (D-Ohio.) called the legislation “one of the clearest bipartisan wins” before Congress, saying year-round E15 would benefit consumers, farmers, and working families alike. Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) said the measure would provide certainty for ethanol producers and farmers while helping advance “American energy dominance.” He said passage would end more than a decade of legislative gridlock surrounding E15 policy. Additional support came from Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Ill.) and Rep. Michelle Fischbach (R-Minn.), both of whom emphasized the role expanded ethanol markets could play in supporting farmers while helping reduce gasoline prices for consumers. Agricultural organizations also used the event to highlight mounting financial pressure across farm country. National Corn Growers Association President Jed Bower said year-round E15 would help absorb growing U.S. corn supplies and provide a more reliable domestic market for ethanol production. Supporters noted E15 — often marketed as UNL 88 — can be used in vehicles manufactured in 2001 and newer, representing roughly 96% of vehicles currently on the road. Advocates said the fuel blend can reduce gasoline prices by up to 30 cents per gallon and potentially save consumers more than $150 million during the summer driving season. American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall described year-round E15 as a “win-win” for both drivers and farmers, arguing the policy would create stronger demand for corn at a time of historically low prices. Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor tied the legislation directly to rising gasoline prices, saying permanent nationwide E15 access could provide immediate relief to consumers. Meanwhile, National Farmers Union President Rob Larew called the proposal “commonsense, bipartisan policy” that would strengthen rural economies and expand the use of American-grown fuel. Biofuel industry groups also stressed the broad coalition backing the legislation. Renewable Fuels Association President and CEO Geoff Cooper said the compromise bill had been negotiated among lawmakers, ethanol producers, fuel retailers, oil refiners, and agricultural stakeholders across the supply chain. National Sorghum Producers CEO Tim Lust added that momentum behind year-round E15 legislation has persisted despite years of delays and ongoing policy disputes.

—Equities today: U.S. equity futures are mixed, with Nasdaq futures higher on news that NVDA’s CEO Huang would join President Trump’s trip to China along with other big tech executives, contradicting previous reports. Meanwhile, oil and bond markets steadied overnight amid no material geopolitical headlines. There are a pair of Fed officials scheduled to speak: Collins (11:30 a.m. ET) and Kashkari (1:15 p.m. ET) as well as a 30-Year Treasury Bond auction at 1:30 p.m. ET (the stronger the demand metrics the better for stocks).

In Asia, Japan +0.8%. Hong Kong +0.2%. China +0.7%. India +0.1%.
 

In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris -0.4%. Frankfurt +0.6%.

The yield on a 10-year Treasury note hit 4.46% this morning, the point last April when bond-market turmoil drove Trump to back off from his most bruising tariffs.

The futures market this morning sees no rate cuts before September 2027, ahead of today’s Producer Price Index release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

—Equities yesterday: 

—U.S. producer prices surge in April. Producer prices in the U.S. soared 1.4% month-over-month in April 2026, the biggest increase since March 2022, following an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in March and well above forecasts of 0.5% as energy costs continue to rise amid the ongoing conflict with Iran.

Prices of services went up 1.2%, also the highest rate since March 2022, led by a a 3.5% increase in margins for machinery and equipment wholesaling. Cost also went up for truck transportation of freight; fuels and lubricants retailing; health, beauty, and optical goods retailing; chemicals and allied products wholesaling; and legal services also moved higher. In addition, prices of goods jumped 2%, led by a 15.6% jump in gasoline. Prices for jet fuel, diesel fuel, fresh and dry vegetables, industrial chemicals, and residual fuels also rose.

—Mortgage rates edge higher as Treasury yields stay elevated

Purchase loan demand rebounds despite persistent inflation and Fed rate concerns

The average U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate for conforming loans of $806,500 or less edged up to 6.46% in the week ending May 8, from 6.45% the previous week, reaching the highest level since early April, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Mortgage rates remained elevated as Treasury yields stayed firm amid stalled U.S./Iran negotiations and ongoing inflation concerns that have strengthened market expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike later this year or in early 2027.

Despite borrowing costs remaining near multi-month highs, overall mortgage application activity increased 1.7% after two consecutive weekly declines. The gain was largely driven by a 3.9% rebound in purchase applications, suggesting some homebuyers continued to move forward despite affordability pressures and elevated financing costs.

Meanwhile, refinancing activity continued to weaken, with refinance applications falling 0.8% from the previous week as higher rates reduced incentives for homeowners to refinance existing mortgages. Analysts continue to monitor Treasury market volatility, inflation data, and Federal Reserve policy expectations as key drivers of mortgage rate direction heading into the summer housing season.

—Senate moves toward confirming Warsh as Federal Reserve chair

Former Fed Governor clears Senate hurdle as debate intensifies over Powell transition and interest rate direction

The Senate moved closer Tuesday to installing Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Reserve after confirming him to a renewed term as a Fed governor on a largely party-line 51-45 vote. Only Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) joined Republicans in backing Warsh.

Following the confirmation vote, the Senate entered up to 30 hours of debate on Warsh’s separate nomination to serve as Fed chair, with a final confirmation vote expected today (May 130. Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to see his term as chair expire May 15.

Powell has indicated he intends to remain on the Fed’s Board of Governors after his chairmanship ends until questions surrounding an investigation into renovations at the Fed’s Washington headquarters are resolved. That decision has drawn criticism from some observers who argue it breaks with longstanding institutional norms in which departing Fed chairs typically leave the central bank entirely once their leadership term concludes, even if they technically retain time on their governor terms.

Warsh’s elevation would also reshape the policy dynamics inside the Fed. He will assume the governor seat previously occupied by Stephen Miran, who had consistently advocated for lower interest rates during his tenure on the board. Markets and policymakers are now closely watching whether Warsh will support a similarly dovish approach or align more closely with inflation-focused policymakers as the Fed navigates persistent price pressures, elevated Treasury yields, and growing debate over the timing of any future rate cuts.

—Corteva seed spinoff Vylor to headquarter in Iowa

Johnston lands Vylor headquarters as Corteva restructures seed business

Corteva announced that its seed spinoff, Vylor, will be headquartered in Johnston, Iowa, marking a major economic and symbolic victory for the state and reconnecting the company’s seed operations with the historic home of Pioneer Hi-Bred. The decision follows months of lobbying by Iowa officials and local leaders after Corteva revealed plans last October to separate its seed and crop protection businesses.

The move represents a return to the roots of Pioneer, the hybrid seed company founded in Johnston in 1926 by former U.S. Agriculture Secretary and Vice President Henry A. Wallace. Corteva’s seed research and development operations already remain based in the Polk County community, and company officials emphasized that Vylor will continue building on Iowa’s agricultural and biotechnology leadership.

Corteva CEO Chuck Magro, who is slated to lead Vylor, said the company’s roots “stretch back 100 years to a farm in Johnston,” adding that the new business will continue focusing on seed innovation and supporting farmers globally.

Indianapolis will remain headquarters for the crop protection business, temporarily referred to as “New Corteva.”

State and local leaders hailed the announcement as a major win for Iowa’s bioscience economy. Governor Kim Reynolds said the decision reinforces Iowa’s position as a leader in agriculture, bioscience and innovation, while Iowa Agriculture Secretary Mike Naig said locating the headquarters in Iowa sends a strong signal to farmers that the company values proximity to its agricultural customer base.

Johnston Mayor Paula Dierenfeld said local and state officials are still working through details on incentives and potential expansion plans, though the headquarters is expected to bring several hundred high-paying executive jobs to the area. Iowa economic development officials also credited a grassroots “Plant the Headquarters Here” campaign that gathered hundreds of signatures and testimonials supporting the bid.

The announcement comes as Iowa lawmakers consider new tax incentives aimed at attracting corporate headquarters involved in advanced manufacturing, bioscience, technology and research sectors. Specific incentive proposals tied to Vylor remain confidential pending formal approval processes later this year.

—Overnight grain markets mixed as wheat strength offsets pressure in corn and soy oil

Tight global wheat supplies and ongoing weather risks continue to support wheat futures while soybean meal extends rally

Overnight grain markets traded mixed early Wednesday, with wheat futures again leading the complex higher as traders continued to focus on tightening global supplies, adverse weather concerns in several key exporting regions, and sharply reduced U.S. hard red winter wheat production prospects.

July corn futures slipped 3/4 cent to $4.7925 per bushel as traders consolidated following the recent rally tied to bullish USDA supply-and-demand revisions and ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. planting weather. Market attention remains centered on developing precipitation forecasts across portions of the Corn Belt after an extended stretch of dryness helped accelerate planting progress but also reduced topsoil moisture in several western Midwest states.

Soybean futures remained firm, with July soybeans rising 1 1/2 cents to $12.2825 per bushel. Continued strength in soybean meal futures provided underlying support to the soybean complex, with July soybean meal climbing $2.40 to $330.80 per short ton as traders monitored global protein demand and tightening nearby meal supplies. Meanwhile, July soybean oil futures eased slightly, falling 0.05 cent to 75.31 cents per pound.

Wheat markets continued to attract the strongest buying interest overnight. July Chicago soft red winter wheat futures declined 3 cents to $6.76 per bushel after recent sharp gains, while July Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures surged another 9 3/4 cents to $7.41 per bushel. The hard red winter wheat market continued to draw support from worsening production concerns across the central Plains, where persistent dryness and above-normal temperatures have increased stress on developing crops.

Global wheat fundamentals also remained supportive following continued concern over Black Sea and European production risks. Traders remain increasingly focused on tightening exportable wheat supplies worldwide after USDA recently reduced U.S. winter wheat production estimates, reinforcing fears that global inventories could remain historically tight heading into the second half of 2026.

Outside markets were also closely monitored overnight, particularly crude oil futures and broader macroeconomic developments tied to the ongoing summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. Grain traders continue watching for any signals involving potential Chinese agricultural purchase agreements or broader trade policy developments that could influence export demand expectations for U.S. crops.

—International grain prices rise as wheat supply concerns intensify ahead of Trump/Xi Summit

Tightening global wheat supplies, Black Sea weather risks and China demand outlook drive world grain market volatility

International grain markets traded mixed to higher Wednesday, with wheat markets continuing to lead the upside amid tightening global export supplies, adverse weather concerns across key producing regions and heightened attention on China’s agricultural import outlook ahead of the summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.

Russian FOB June wheat was quoted bid at $236 per metric ton and offered at $238 per metric ton, reflecting continued strength in Black Sea export values as traders monitor dryness concerns in parts of Russia and Europe.

Meanwhile, September Paris milling wheat futures rose €5.00 per metric ton to €217.00, equivalent to roughly $6.55 per bushel in U.S. terms.

The wheat market has become increasingly sensitive to production risks after USDA reduced U.S. winter wheat production estimates, particularly for hard red winter wheat.

Traders also remain focused on deteriorating crop conditions in portions of the Black Sea region and Europe, reinforcing concerns about limited exportable supplies among major global wheat exporters.

World wheat inventories remain historically tight relative to demand, helping support futures markets across both Europe and the United States.

The rally in global wheat values has also provided spillover support to corn and soybean markets.

China’s grain demand outlook remains another central focus for global trade flows. Market analysts estimate China has imported roughly 6 million metric tons of corn, 7.2 million metric tons of wheat and 114 million metric tons of soybeans during the current marketing year. Traders continue watching for any potential agricultural purchase commitments or trade-related announcements tied to the Trump/Xi summit.

Corn markets remained comparatively steadier, though global feed grain demand continues to provide underlying support. Dalian corn futures in China were modestly firmer overnight, while traders monitored weather conditions across both the U.S. Corn Belt and South America. Current forecasts call for improving rainfall across portions of the central U.S. later this week after an extended period of dryness that had accelerated planting progress but depleted topsoil moisture in several states.

Soybean markets also remained supported by strong Chinese demand expectations and elevated vegetable oil values. Malaysian palm oil futures continued to trade at firm levels amid tightening edible oil supplies and ongoing energy market volatility tied to Middle East tensions and disruptions to crude oil shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Global grain traders also continue monitoring currency markets, freight costs and geopolitical developments, particularly as energy prices remain elevated. Higher crude oil values have supported biofuel-linked commodities including soybean oil and corn used for ethanol production.

Meanwhile, traders remain attentive to broader macroeconomic risks, including interest rate uncertainty, trade negotiations and global inflation pressures, all of which continue influencing agricultural commodity investment flows and export competitiveness.

—USDA delivers opening salvo on 2026/27 crops

Drought-ravaged wheat, tighter corn stocks, and surging biofuel demand paint a price-bullish picture across the commodity complex

The May 12 release of USDA’s Crop Production report and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) — the most closely watched dual release of the calendar year because it delivers the government’s first official look at 2026/27 supply and demand — landed with considerable weight on commodity markets Tuesday. Severe drought, freeze damage, and sharply reduced planted acres combined to produce a wheat outlook that came in notably worse than many in the trade had anticipated, while new-crop corn and soybean balance sheets broadly confirmed pre-report expectations on the U.S. side, key global figures — particularly world corn ending stocks — came in tighter than traders anticipated, adding to the price-bullish tone of the reports.

Wheat: A record low in the making

The headline number from USDA’s Crop Production report was stark: winter wheat production is forecast at 1.05 billion bushels, down 25% from 2025. The national yield of 47.6 bushels per acre falls 7.3 bushels below last year’s average, and harvested area of just 22.0 million acres, if realized, would represent a record low for the nation. Hard Red Winter bore the deepest wound, with production forecast at 515 million bushels — down 36% from a year ago — as punishing drought across Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, and Nebraska, compounded by freeze damage in mid-to-late April, devastated the crop. Kansas, the largest winter wheat-producing state, had only 22% of its crop rated in good-to-excellent condition as of May 3.

The WASDE built that crop production data into a stark supply picture for 2026/27. Total U.S. all-wheat production is projected at 1,561 million bushels, down 424 million from last year, and the all-wheat yield of 47.5 bushels per acre sits 5.8 bushels below 2025’s record. Ending stocks are projected at 762 million bushels, 18% below last year, on a stocks-to-use ratio that justifies a projected season-average farm price of $6.50 per bushel — up $1.50 from last year and the highest in recent memory. Exports are projected at 775 million bushels, down 135 million from revised 2025/26 levels, constrained by both reduced exportable supplies and higher U.S. prices.

The scope of the wheat damage substantially exceeded what the trade had been bracing for. USDA’s February Ag Outlook Forum had projected 2026/27 wheat production around 1,860 million bushels, assuming normal weather. The actual forecast of 1,561 million bushels lands nearly 300 million bushels below that early benchmark.

On the world stage, global wheat production is now forecast at 819.1 million metric tons, down from last year’s record 843.8 million, with significant cuts for the United States, the EU, Argentina, and Australia all pulling in the same bearish direction for supplies.

Corn: Tight but not shocking

For corn, USDA’s first look at 2026/27 was largely in line with pre-report trader expectations, though the underlying picture is one of meaningful tightening. Ahead of the report, Reuters trader surveys expected old-crop corn ending stocks to remain near 2.1 billion bushels, with new-crop estimates averaging around 1.9 billion bushels based on 95.3 million planted acres and a trend-line yield of 183 bushels per acre. USDA delivered almost exactly that: the 2026/27 corn crop is projected at 16.0 billion bushels on 95.3 million planted acres and a 183.0 bushel-per-acre weather-adjusted trend yield that assumes normal weather, with ending stocks coming in at 1.957 billion bushels — essentially on top of the average trade guess of 1.9 billion and close to the Dow Jones survey average.

Old-crop 2025/26 ending stocks were revised to 2.142 billion bushels, essentially matching the Dow Jones pre-report average of 2.140 billion bushels. The stocks-to-use ratio for new crop of 12.1 percent, while down from 13.0% the prior year, remains above the five-year average — providing some cushion, though it is the lowest reading in over a decade.

The season-average farm price for 2026/27 is projected at $4.40 per bushel, up 25 cents from 2025/26, consistent with the modest tightening in the balance sheet.

On a global basis, world corn production for 2026/27 is forecast at 1.295 billion metric tons, down 17.3 million from the prior year’s record but still the second highest on record. The Dow Jones pre-report survey had expected world corn ending stocks to rise modestly to about 296.5 million metric tons; USDA instead came in at 277.5 million metric tons — meaningfully tighter than the trade’s expectation and the lowest global corn carryout since 2013/14. That divergence from trader expectations on the world side carries a bullish undertone for corn prices that the headline U.S. numbers alone did not convey.

Soybeans: Biofuel demand reshapes the picture

USDA’s first 2026/27 soybean balance sheet featured higher production, a surge in domestic crush driven by biofuel policy, and ending stocks that came in tighter than many expected. The soybean crop is projected at 4.435 billion bushels on 84.7 million planted acres and a weather-adjusted trend model assuming normal weather yield of 53.0 bushels per acre — a solid crop that, combined with larger beginning stocks, puts total supplies 188 million bushels above the prior year.

The standout figure, however, is soybean oil use for biofuel, which USDA projects at 17.8 billion pounds for 2026/27, up 3.6 billion from 2025/26, supported by EPA’s Renewable Volume Obligations for 2026 and 2027.

That demand surge drives total domestic soybean oil use up 7% and pulls crush projections to 2.750 billion bushels — 120 million above the prior year. The result is that despite ample supplies, U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2026/27 are projected at just 310 million bushels, below the revised 2025/26 forecast of 340 million bushels.

Ahead of the report, traders expected old-crop soybean ending stocks to hold near 345.5 million bushels, while domestic crush had jumped 10% year-over-year in March and Brazilian competition intensified with an 18% surge in soybean export values. USDA’s 340 million bushel old-crop stocks estimate came in close to but slightly below the pre-report trade expectation, lending modest support to prices.

On the world level, traders anticipated 2026/27 world soybean ending stocks of approximately 126.3 million metric tons; USDA projected 124.78 million — slightly below that guess, another modestly supportive data point for beans.

Rice, sorghum, and cotton: Notable moves

The rice balance sheet carries some of the most dramatic year-over-year shifts. U.S. rice production for 2026/27 is projected at 175.2 million hundredweight, down 15% from last year on lower harvested area of just 2.27 million acres — the lowest planted acreage in recent history for the crop. Ending stocks are forecast to fall 18% to 42.3 million hundredweight. The season-average farm price is projected at $13.50 per hundredweight, up from $12.10 in 2025/26, with long-grain price strength leading the way.

For sorghum, the 2026/27 outlook reflects reduced planted area of 6.1 million acres and a projected yield of 69.2 bushels per acre, with production forecast at 367 million bushels — down from 437 million in the prior year. Ending stocks are expected to fall slightly to 34 million bushels and the projected farm price rises to $4.10 per bushel from $3.55, tracking corn’s directional move upward.

Cotton’s first 2026/27 balance sheet projects U.S. production at 13.30 million bales on 9.64 million planted acres, about 600,000 bales below 2025/26. Exports are pegged 300,000 bales higher at 12.30 million bales on stronger global demand, which draws ending stocks down to 3.90 million bales for a stocks-to-use ratio of 28.1%. The projected season-average farm price of 73 cents per pound would be a meaningful step up from the 63-cent projection for 2025/26. On the world level, global cotton consumption is projected to increase 1% to 121.7 million bales, led by China, India, and Bangladesh.

Bottom Line: Tuesday’s reports present a tighter commodity landscape than a year ago across the board. The wheat situation in particular, shaped by drought and freeze damage that unfolded faster than most pre-season models anticipated, represents a generational supply shock for Hard Red Winter that will reverberate through flour milling economics and export competition for months. While corn and soybean numbers largely met trade expectations at the headline level, the tighter-than-expected global corn stocks figure and the biofuel-driven squeeze on soybean oil both contain elements that traders will need to reassess. It remains very early in the growing season — USDA noted the highly tentative nature of all 2026/27 forecasts given that spring planting is still underway — but the May WASDE has put the market on notice that the comfortable cushions of recent years are narrowing.

—Agriculture markets yesterday:

—PLC payments could drop sharply in 2026 despite expanded base acres

Paul Neiffer warns corn, soybean and wheat producers may see little or no plc support if current price and yield trends hold

Farm policy analyst Paul Neiffer of CPA Farm Report is warning that federal farm program payments under the Price Loss Coverage (PLC) program could decline dramatically for the 2026 crop year, even after Congress expanded eligible base acres under the new farm bill framework.

Neiffer said maximum national PLC payments for the 2025 crop year are currently projected at roughly $11 billion, reflecting weaker commodity prices and elevated producer support levels built into recent legislation.

However, he cautioned that 2026 payments could fall to less than $3 billion if current market-year average (MYA) price projections and generally favorable crop conditions continue. Under that scenario, Neiffer said many major row-crop producers — particularly corn, soybean and wheat growers — may receive little or no PLC payments at all because projected MYA prices would remain above updated statutory reference prices.

For 2026 crops, farmers still must make annual elections between Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and PLC coverage, but Neiffer indicated the overall payout outlook has weakened substantially compared to earlier expectations. He noted that even with roughly 30 million additional base acres expected to become eligible under the revised farm bill structure, total payments may remain below $4 billion if current USDA price projections hold.

The comments underscore how sensitive commodity program payments remain to relatively modest changes in crop prices and production prospects. Improved yield expectations, stabilizing grain markets and the possibility of larger global supplies are all contributing to lower projected PLC exposure for the federal government heading into the 2026 crop year.

— Senate Ag targets June release for farm bill text, markup 

Boozman pushes aggressive timeline as bipartisan negotiations continue

Senate Ag Committee Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) said Tuesday that the committee is aiming to release its long-awaited farm bill text in June, signaling an accelerated push to advance bipartisan negotiations on major agriculture, nutrition, and conservation policy issues. “We’re going to get something done in June,” Boozman (R-Ark.) told reporters when asked about the timing for the legislation.

The comments provide one of the clearest indications yet that Senate Ag Committee leaders are preparing to move forward on a comprehensive farm bill package after months of negotiations complicated by budget fights, nutrition program debates, commodity support concerns, and broader partisan tensions on Capitol Hill.

Meanwhile, Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) described Boozman’s timetable as “ambitious,” while emphasizing that the Arkansas Republican remains focused on producing a bipartisan product capable of gaining support across the committee and eventually on the Senate floor. “He is committed to working and trying to get out a bipartisan bill,” Fischer said.

The Senate timeline comes as pressure continues building on lawmakers to complete work on a multi-year farm bill amid ongoing weakness in the agricultural economy, elevated input costs, and growing concerns from commodity groups over the adequacy of current farm safety net programs. Senate lawmakers also continue weighing how to address disputes over SNAP spending, conservation funding, commodity reference prices, crop insurance, and trade-related agricultural support.

Senate Ag Committee Democrats, including ranking member Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), have continued raising concerns about nutrition assistance provisions and potential spending shifts tied to broader budget reconciliation efforts. Democrats want to make changes to the section of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that shifts part of the cost of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) to the states based on the state error rates in SNAP payments.

Boozman’s comments suggest Senate negotiators believe momentum is building toward at least releasing legislative text before Congress moves deeper into the summer legislative calendar.

—Senate Ag hearing highlights mounting pressure from fertilizer costs, supply risks

Lawmakers, farmers and industry leaders debated market concentration, geopolitical disruptions, domestic production needs and transparency reforms as fertilizer costs squeeze farm profitability

Members of the Senate Ag Committee and industry witnesses on Tuesday painted a bleak picture of rising fertilizer costs, worsening farm finances and growing concern over the long-term stability of U.S. agricultural production during a hearing focused on ensuring an affordable and reliable fertilizer supply.

Ranking Member Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) focused heavily on the role of global conflict and tariffs in driving fertilizer inflation, arguing the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions sharply increased costs for urea and ammonia shipments. Klobuchar also pointed to fertilizer market concentration, noting that four companies controlled 77% of U.S. nitrogen fertilizer sales and all domestic potash and phosphate production in 2024. She promoted bipartisan legislation with Senate Majority Leader Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) to establish mandatory fertilizer price reporting at USDA.

Witnesses painted sharply different but overlapping pictures of the fertilizer market, with farmers and competition advocates arguing that consolidation and limited transparency are worsening already severe price pressures, while fertilizer industry representatives stressed that global geopolitical disruptions remain the dominant force behind rising costs.

Witnesses repeatedly emphasized that fertilizer inflation predates the current Middle East conflict but has been worsened by global supply disruptions tied to Iran, Russia, China and trade disputes.

Trent Kubik, president of the South Dakota Corn Growers Association, told senators that many producers are delaying fertilizer purchases in hopes prices stabilize after the recent Middle East conflict sent markets sharply higher. Kubik said his own operation had not prepaid fertilizer ahead of the 2026 season and is now facing costs that have “almost doubled” following the Iran-related disruptions. He argued that fertilizer pricing no longer appears tied primarily to natural gas costs and instead reflects excessive concentration and potential anti-competitive behavior in the industry. He testified that fertilizer costs on his farm nearly doubled in recent years, with urea prices jumping from roughly $355 per ton in 2020 to $830 in 2022. He said phosphate prices also surged and remained elevated, forcing his operation to skip phosphate applications entirely in 2025 because the economics no longer worked. Kubik argued that fertilizer manufacturers were using market power to sustain high margins even as U.S. natural gas costs remained comparatively low. He strongly endorsed the Fertilizer Transparency Act of 2026 and Sen. Chuck Grassley’s (R-Iowa) Fertilizer Research Act as tools to provide farmers better market visibility.

Kubik testified that four firms control roughly 75% of the U.S. nitrogen fertilizer market, while phosphate and potash markets are even more concentrated. He also raised concerns about vertical integration among major fertilizer manufacturers and distributors, arguing that growers have little negotiating power when contracts are changed or canceled. Kubik described cases where farmers allegedly saw fertilizer contracts canceled and then reoffered at significantly higher prices.

Several senators from both parties repeatedly raised concerns about fertilizer industry concentration and profit levels. Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) cited data showing major fertilizer company profits rose between 100% and 200% during the 2021-2022 fertilizer spike and questioned whether companies were exploiting market power. Kubik responded that farmers felt fertilizer firms could raise prices “because they can,” while farmers themselves remained price takers on both ends of the market.

Witnesses echoed demands last month from more than 60 agriculture groups, who asked the U.S. Department of Commerce to revoke countervailing duty orders in imports of phosphate fertilizer from Morocco and Russia.

Kubik referred to a Texas A & M study found that the U.S. countervailing duty on Moroccan phosphate fertilizers imports “increased the cost of phosphorus fertilizers for U.S. producers by an estimated $6.9 billion between 2021 and 2025.”

“A [countervailing duty] would make sense if the domestic industry were competitive and if those foreign imports were harming that industry. Instead, the [countervailing duty) in this scenario is just increasing costs for American farmers,” Kubik said.

Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) called escalating costs, including on fertilizers, the “No. 1 issue” that affects American farmers. He said the duties increase costs for American farms to protect an American company that controls more than 60% of phosphate production. Although he did not mention the name, Mosaic is the largest U.S. phosphate supplier. “Getting rid of those countervailing duties would be the quickest and most immediate impact that the American farmer could see in the real world today,” Marshall said.

Andy Green of Center Market Strategies echoed those concerns, telling senators that highly concentrated fertilizer markets have left farmers vulnerable to persistent price spikes that do not appear fully explained by input costs or supply-demand fundamentals. Green pointed to studies showing fertilizer prices increasingly track corn prices rather than embedded natural gas costs, suggesting companies may be exercising market power during periods of elevated crop prices.

Green urged lawmakers and regulators to pursue stronger antitrust enforcement, reconsider past fertilizer mergers, and expand market transparency requirements. He specifically highlighted the 2018 Agrium-PotashCorp merger that created Nutrien, arguing it deserves renewed scrutiny given recent fertilizer price spikes and rising company margins.

Green, who served as USDA senior adviser for fair and competitive markets in the Biden administration, said he is optimistic that the Trump administration will take action to improve the supply of fertilizer in the long run. He praised the administration for continuing the USDA Fertilizer Expansion Program started under the Biden administration and for launching investigations into the fertilizer industry.

Kentucky Farm Bureau President Eddie Melton focused heavily on the financial stress facing farmers as fertilizer costs continue climbing while commodity prices remain weak. Melton said this marks the fourth consecutive year of deterioration in the farm economy, with producers squeezed between declining crop prices and persistently high input costs. He noted that some farmers, including his own operation, reduced acreage or abandoned planned wheat and canola plantings because fertilizer expenses became too difficult to justify economically. He said his own operation skipped wheat and canola plantings because of fertilizer prices and cited Farm Bureau survey data showing severe affordability challenges across the South. Melton noted fertilizer prices had climbed sharply since February, including a 55% increase in urea prices, while corn prices had fallen from roughly $7 per bushel in 2022 to around $4.50 today.

Melton acknowledged that disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz have intensified fertilizer market volatility, particularly for nitrogen products dependent on natural gas and globally traded urea and phosphate shipments. He cited data showing one-third of globally shipped fertilizer moves through the Strait and warned that uncertainty about future availability is becoming a major concern for producers planning ahead for the 2027 crop year.

Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.,) said fertilizer companies have made billions in profits while farmers continue to struggle with rising costs. “There’s plenty of money in agriculture,” Smith said. “The question is who’s getting it, and it’s not farmers right now.”

Meanwhile, Corey Rosenbusch, president and CEO of The Fertilizer Institute, pushed back against suggestions that consolidation alone explains current pricing conditions. Rosenbusch repeatedly emphasized that fertilizer operates within a deeply interconnected global commodity market heavily influenced by geopolitics, trade restrictions, natural gas availability, and shipping disruptions.

Rosenbusch detailed how the Iran conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted roughly one-third of globally traded fertilizer shipments, including major shares of ammonia, urea, phosphate, and sulfur exports. He also pointed to China’s fertilizer export restrictions, India’s aggressive state-backed fertilizer purchasing programs, the Russia-Ukraine war, and natural gas shortages in multiple regions as major drivers of the current supply shock.

The Fertilizer Institute also defended the competitiveness of the U.S. fertilizer sector, arguing that American producers compete against hundreds of global suppliers and operate within a worldwide commodity market dominated by countries such as China, India, Russia, Canada, Belarus, and Morocco. Rosenbusch testified that the U.S. still imports a substantial share of its fertilizer needs despite maintaining significant domestic production. He noted that fertilizer goes to the countries that are willing to pay the highest prices and that several countries, including India, buy fertilizer at high prices and then provide it to farmers at low, subsidized prices. He said the U.S. accounts for only about 7% of global fertilizer production and remains a net importer.

Boozman asked Rosenbusch if there should be a government reserve for fertilizer, but Rosenbusch said a reserve would be difficult because fertilizer is hard to store.

Sen. Marshall asked Rosenbusch about farmers “getting squeezed on both sides with less domestic supply and restricted imports.”

“We a hundred percent agree that fertilizer manufactured in bolstering domestic supply of fertilizer is incredibly important to deliver to U.S. growers the fertilizer they need in order to be profitable,” Rosenbusch said.

Sen. Ben Ray Lujan (D-N.M.) said the administration “closed off entire markets to American farmers” and pressed Rosenbusch over whether “President Trump’s war in Iran” is “directly related to the spike in fertilizer prices we’ve seen since February of 2006.”

Several lawmakers asked Rosenbusch for his views on the countervailing duties on fertilizer from Morocco, but Rosenbusch said his organization has no position on the issue because his members are divided on it.

Joshua Westling, founder and CEO of J Westling & Co., focused his testimony on the need to expand domestic fertilizer manufacturing capacity. Westling described his company’s proposed $1 billion “Project Meadowlark” fertilizer complex in Nebraska as an example of the type of regional production investment needed to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign fertilizer supplies and vulnerable global shipping routes. Westling testified that building new nitrogen fertilizer facilities in the United States requires enormous upfront capital and faces lengthy permitting and financing hurdles. He said Project Meadowlark facility would produce hundreds of thousands of tons of nitrogen products annually beginning in 2029 but stressed that the industry needed faster permitting, better federal coordination and more early-stage financing support if the U.S. wanted to reduce dependence on foreign supply chains.

Westling argued that heavy reliance on imports from Russia, Trinidad, and other foreign suppliers has exposed U.S. farmers to geopolitical shocks and volatile prices. He noted that only a handful of major new nitrogen fertilizer plants have been built in the United States since the early 1980s and said the federal government should treat fertilizer production as both a food security and national security priority.

Across the hearing, senators heard repeated calls for increased fertilizer market transparency, expanded domestic production, and policies aimed at stabilizing supplies during a period of growing global uncertainty. Witnesses broadly agreed that fertilizer affordability has become one of the central economic challenges confronting U.S. agriculture heading into the 2026 crop season.

—Oil market stabilizes after sharp rally as IEA warns of severe supply tightness

IEA cites record global inventory draws while Middle East disruptions continue to pressure crude markets ahead of peak summer demand

WTI crude oil futures steadied near $102 per barrel Wednesday after trimming earlier losses, following a powerful three-session rally that lifted prices roughly 7.6%. The market remained supported by mounting concerns over tightening global supplies after the International Energy Agency warned that observed oil inventories declined at a record pace of roughly 4 million barrels per day during March and April. Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, dipped to around $107 a barrel today, even though the Strait of Hormuz has remained virtually closed to ship traffic.

In its latest Oil Market Report, the IEA said the sharp inventory drawdowns underscore how strained the global oil market has become amid ongoing Middle East disruptions. The agency warned that even if the regional conflict eases sooner than expected, crude markets could remain significantly undersupplied through October as the world moves into the peak summer demand season.

The report added to growing fears that the market is rebuilding a substantial geopolitical risk premium tied to instability surrounding the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy shipping chokepoint that normally handles roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.

Asian refiners, including buyers in Japan, are increasingly seeking alternative crude supplies outside the Persian Gulf as uncertainty over regional shipping security persists.

Meanwhile, reports that Iranian oil export shipments have recently stalled marked the first sustained interruption in flows since the conflict began, further tightening available global supply.

President Donald Trump attempted to calm markets ahead of his summit discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping, saying the situation remained “under control.” However, traders continue closely monitoring the conflict’s impact on exports, shipping routes, and refinery operations as concerns grow that supply disruptions could extend deeper into the second half of 2026.

—Tuesday: Oil markets rebuild risk premium as Hormuz disruptions deepen

Trump says ceasefire talks on “life support” while EIA warns shipping and supply normalization could take until 2027

Global oil markets extended their sharp rally Tuesday as traders continued rebuilding geopolitical risk premiums tied to the Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude surged $3.56, or 3.42%, to settle at $107.77 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed $4.11, or 4.19%, to $102.18.

The latest gains followed another escalation in concerns surrounding the deteriorating diplomatic situation between the United States and Iran. President Donald Trump said ceasefire negotiations were on “life support,” reinforcing market fears that no near-term agreement is likely. Meanwhile, Iranian officials continued demanding an end to regional hostilities, removal of the U.S. naval blockade, restoration of Iranian oil exports, sanctions relief, and compensation for war-related damage.

Markets remain heavily focused on the Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows. Iran’s continued emphasis on maintaining sovereignty and influence over traffic through the waterway added to concerns that shipping disruptions may persist for months rather than weeks.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) significantly extended its outlook for the disruption, now expecting the strait to remain effectively closed through at least late May. The agency also warned that even after shipping resumes, global crude production and trade flows may not fully normalize until late 2026 or early 2027 due to logistical bottlenecks, infrastructure strain, and inventory depletion across key consuming regions.

Supply losses are also continuing to mount. The EIA estimated approximately 10.5 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern production were disrupted during April, with the risk of additional shut-ins increasing as regional storage capacity tightens. Several private-sector analysts have projected an even larger effective supply gap, with some estimates approaching 14 million barrels per day.

Meanwhile, tightening inventories are becoming increasingly evident across global markets. OPEC production has fallen to multi-decade lows, U.S. crude and refined fuel inventories are expected to post additional declines, and strong export demand for American energy products continues drawing down available supplies from international markets.

The renewed rally marked a sharp reversal from last week’s temporary selloff, when markets had briefly hoped diplomacy could quickly reopen the Strait of Hormuz and stabilize global energy flows. Instead, traders are increasingly positioning for a prolonged disruption scenario that could keep crude prices elevated well into the second half of 2026.

—FAPRI report highlights trade-offs in House E15 and refinery exemption proposal

University of Missouri analysis finds year-round E15 could boost corn demand while permanent refinery exemptions pressure soybean oil markets and weigh on farm income

On Wednesday, we detailed a new report (link) from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri that concludes that proposed year-round E15 legislation could increase ethanol use and support corn demand, but warns that accompanying small refinery exemption (SRE) provisions may ultimately reduce overall renewable fuel demand and create financial pressure across parts of the farm economy. 

The May 2026 analysis examined the House-passed E15 and SRE framework tied to HR 1346 and modeled its impacts on fuel markets, crop prices, government outlays, and farm income over the next decade.

The report assumes nationwide year-round E15 availability leads to gradual but steady adoption by consumers and fuel suppliers, with ethanol blend rates rising over time. Under the study’s assumptions, average ethanol blends eventually rise to 13% nationally by 2035, increasing domestic ethanol use by roughly 2 billion gallons compared to baseline projections.

That expanded ethanol demand increases corn usage and modestly raises corn prices and acreage. FAPRI projects corn prices could rise between 3 cents and 14 cents per bushel above baseline levels over the projection period while corn acreage expands by roughly 1.5 million acres.

Meanwhile, the report concludes that greater ethanol usage displaces biomass-based diesel within Renewable Fuel Standard compliance markets. Because soybean oil is a primary biodiesel feedstock, the study projects lower soybean oil demand and weaker soybean prices.

The analysis becomes more negative for the soybean sector when incorporating proposed changes to refinery exemptions. Under the House proposal, qualifying small refineries would automatically receive exemptions from Renewable Fuel Standard obligations, while only 25% of the exempted volumes would be redistributed to other refiners. FAPRI said that effectively lowers overall national renewable fuel mandates because 75% of those exempted gallons would no longer need to be replaced elsewhere in the system.

Researchers modeled scenarios involving 600 million gallons and 900 million gallons of exempted renewable fuel obligations. In both cases, the report found lower Renewable Fuel Standard requirements reduced demand for biomass-based diesel more significantly than ethanol. Soybean oil prices in some scenarios fell more than 11 cents per pound below baseline levels by the end of the projection period, while soybean prices declined by more than 40 cents per bushel.

The report also found that net farm income weakens during much of the forecast window under the SRE scenarios. In the larger exemption scenario, net farm income falls by as much as $1 billion below baseline during the early 2030s before partially recovering later in the decade.

FAPRI emphasized that the findings depend heavily on assumptions regarding actual E15 adoption. The authors stressed that the legislation itself merely permits year-round E15 sales and does not guarantee consumers or fuel retailers will significantly expand usage. The report warned that one possible outcome is that “consumers and firms buy very little” E15, which would substantially reduce the projected impacts. The report also noted that future EPA implementation decisions, Renewable Fuel Standard policies, and market conditions could materially alter the long-term effects on both fuel and agricultural markets.

—Tariff refund process accelerates as importers recover billions in overturned duties

More than $35.5 billion in tariff refunds have now been cleared for U.S. importers following the Supreme Court’s decision striking down President Donald Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose broad import duties, underscoring the enormous financial and logistical fallout from the administration’s now-invalidated IEEPA tariff program 

According to a new court filing (link), U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has validated nearly 87,000 refund declarations submitted through the government’s newly created Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries — or CAPE — portal as of May 11. Those validated claims represent more than $35.5 billion in refunds that are now eligible for payment by the Treasury Department, with interest included on the returned duties.

The refund process stems from the Supreme Court’s Feb. 20 ruling that the Trump administration unlawfully relied on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping tariffs on imported goods. In a 6-3 decision, the court concluded the statute did not authorize the broad-based tariff program, although the justices left the issue of refunds for lower courts to resolve.

Since the CAPE system launched on April 20, importers have submitted roughly 126,000 declarations covering tariff payments tied to more than 8 million import entries. Customs officials said approximately 8.3 million accepted entries have already been reprocessed to remove the IEEPA duties from the underlying transactions.

The scale of the refunds highlights how deeply the emergency tariffs had become embedded across U.S. supply chains. The overturned duties covered approximately $166 billion in tariff collections, affecting industries ranging from manufacturing and retail to agriculture, chemicals, machinery and consumer goods.

Meanwhile, the refund rollout remains incomplete. CBP officials acknowledged in earlier court filings that the current phase of the CAPE portal can process only the less complicated claims. More complex entries — including those involving multiple duty programs, amended filings or unresolved importer documentation — are expected to be addressed in later phases, though Customs has not yet provided a timetable.

The filing also revealed operational hurdles remain. Nearly 1,900 consolidated refunds have not yet been forwarded to Treasury for payment because importers failed to provide banking information needed for electronic transfers.

The refund effort is now emerging as one of the largest trade-related repayment programs in U.S. history and could carry broader implications for future presidential use of emergency trade authorities. Trade lawyers and importers are closely watching whether Congress or the administration attempts to craft alternative tariff mechanisms following the court’s rejection of the IEEPA approach.

—Federal appeals court temporarily reinstates Trump tariffs pending review

Administrative stay allows U.S. Customs to continue collecting 10% global tariffs as legal battle over presidential trade powers moves forward

A federal appeals court on Tuesday temporarily halted a lower court ruling that had declared President Donald Trump’s latest round of global tariffs unlawful, allowing the administration to continue collecting the duties while the broader legal dispute proceeds. The decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit represents an important short-term victory for the Trump administration as it seeks to preserve one of the president’s signature trade policies.

The appeals court issued what is known as an administrative stay, a procedural move designed to maintain the status quo while judges consider whether a longer-term pause should remain in place during the appeal. The order does not resolve the underlying legal questions but means importers must continue paying the 10% tariffs imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.

The case centers on whether the Trump administration exceeded its authority by using Section 122 — a rarely used provision of U.S. trade law — to impose broad-based tariffs. The statute gives the president limited powers to address balance-of-payments issues and currency-related concerns, but critics argue the administration stretched the law far beyond its intended purpose. A lower federal court previously agreed, ruling the tariffs unlawful and triggering a scramble among importers seeking refunds on duties already paid.

Tuesday’s appeals court action temporarily freezes the impact of that lower court decision. The judges directed both sides to submit additional legal briefs over the next two weeks before the court decides whether the tariffs can remain in place throughout the full appeals process.

The dispute has major implications for importers, manufacturers, retailers, and global trading partners because the tariffs affect a broad range of imported goods. The case also carries broader constitutional and economic significance by testing the limits of presidential authority over trade policy absent explicit congressional approval.

The ruling comes as the administration is already processing billions of dollars in separate tariff refund claims tied to earlier court decisions involving other Trump-era duties. Customs and Border Protection recently disclosed that more than $35 billion in refunds tied to overturned tariffs are already moving through the federal payment system, underscoring the massive financial stakes surrounding the administration’s trade agenda.

—USTR pushes ‘fortress North America’ strategy ahead of USMCA review

Deputy USTR Jeffrey Goettman signals support for unified North American steel tariffs, tougher origin rules, and stronger protections against Asian imports as Trump administration prepares next phase of USMCA negotiations

Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Goettman said the Trump administration wants a next-generation U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) built around stronger North American trade protections, including “unified tariff borders” for industries such as steel, aluminum, and autos. Speaking at the American Iron and Steel Institute’s annual meeting in Washington, Goettman said the administration is increasingly concerned about derivative products made with steel and other inputs from outside North America entering the U.S. market through Canada and Mexico.

Goettman said USTR’s broader goal is to strengthen regional supply chains while increasing North American and specifically U.S. content requirements under USMCA. He also emphasized the need for greater transparency regarding the origin of products crossing North American borders. According to Goettman, President Donald Trump remains highly focused on reducing the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico, which has expanded since the original USMCA renegotiation during Trump’s first term.

The comments come as steel industry groups intensify pressure on the administration to expand protections against what they describe as global overcapacity, particularly from China and Southeast Asia. Industry representatives recently urged USTR to strengthen trade actions targeting derivative steel products that they argue are bypassing existing Section 232 tariffs and other trade remedies.

Goettman also suggested negotiations have progressed more smoothly with Mexico than Canada because Mexican officials share many of the administration’s concerns regarding Asian imports. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick separately suggested that the current trilateral agreement could eventually evolve into two separate bilateral frameworks — one between the U.S. and Mexico and another between the U.S. and Canada. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has similarly floated the idea of negotiating separate protocols with each country layered onto the existing agreement.

The steel industry strongly backed the administration’s tougher approach. American Iron and Steel Institute President Kevin Dempsey said there is broad support across the North American steel sector for a “melt-and-pour” rule of origin requirement, which would require steel traded under USMCA to be melted and poured within North America. AISI Chair Lourenco Goncalves described the industry’s preferred strategy as “Fortress North America,” while signaling openness to tariff relief discussions only if Canada and Mexico adopt trade protections comparable to those imposed by the United States.

Goncalves also criticized Canada for lowering tariffs on up to 49,000 Chinese vehicles, arguing Ottawa has not taken sufficiently aggressive action to protect North American industries from Chinese competition.

—Makary resigns as FDA commissioner after turbulent tenure

Leadership shakeup follows clashes over vaccines, vaping policy, and broader tensions inside the Trump administration’s health agenda

Dr. Marty Makary has resigned as commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) after serving 13 months in a tenure marked by internal disputes, political controversy, and mounting criticism over the agency’s direction under the Trump administration. The decision was made by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and approved by the White House.

President Donald Trump confirmed the departure, telling reporters that Makary was “a great doctor” but had experienced “some difficulty” in the role. The White House announced that Kyle Diamantas will serve as acting commissioner while the administration searches for a permanent replacement, who will require Senate confirmation.

Makary’s exit follows weeks of speculation fueled by growing tensions surrounding FDA decision-making, particularly involving vaccine policy, vaping regulation, and disputes between political appointees and career scientific staff. Critics increasingly argued that political considerations were overriding the agency’s traditional science-based review process.

Controversy intensified around vaccine approvals and regulatory reviews overseen by Makary and former deputy Dr. Vinay Prasad. Several pharmaceutical companies developing vaccines for rare or difficult-to-treat diseases reportedly received rejection notices or requests for additional clinical studies despite earlier support from FDA staff reviewers. Prasad’s repeated departures from the agency added to concerns about instability within the FDA’s vaccine and biotechnology divisions.

Makary also faced pressure from vaping industry lobbyists and public health advocates as the agency struggled to balance anti-smoking policies with industry demands. Those disputes further amplified criticism that the FDA lacked consistent regulatory direction during his tenure.

The leadership transition creates additional uncertainty for the FDA at a time when the agency is navigating politically sensitive debates over vaccines, food safety, biotechnology approvals, and tobacco regulation under Kennedy’s broader restructuring efforts at the Department of Health and Human Services.

—China moves to rewrite core agriculture law amid food security push

Beijing seeks stronger grain safeguards, rural income growth and greater state oversight

China is undertaking its first major overhaul of the country’s foundational Agriculture Law in more than a decade, underscoring Beijing’s intensifying focus on food security, rural revitalization and farmer income support amid mounting geopolitical and economic pressures. According to a report from Caixin Global, the revised draft law was recently submitted to the Standing Committee of the 14th National People’s Congress for initial review and has now been opened for public comment.

Originally enacted in 1993 and comprehensively revised in 2002, the Agriculture Law serves as the legal framework governing China’s agricultural production system, rural economic development and state support mechanisms for farming. The latest rewrite comes as Chinese officials increasingly frame food security as a matter of national security, particularly following years of trade tensions with the United States, climate-related production risks, geopolitical instability and concerns over reliance on imported feed grains and oilseeds.

The proposed revisions are expected to further strengthen Beijing’s ability to stabilize domestic grain production, protect farmland, improve seed technology development and expand state-backed support for producers. The effort also aligns with Chinese President Xi Jinping’s broader “rural revitalization” strategy, which seeks to narrow income disparities between urban and rural areas while modernizing agricultural production systems.

The timing is significant given China’s growing concern over external supply vulnerabilities. Chinese policymakers have repeatedly warned against excessive dependence on imports of soybeans, corn and other agricultural commodities, especially as trade disputes and global conflicts continue disrupting supply chains. Beijing has simultaneously pursued higher domestic yields, expanded strategic reserves, increased biotechnology investment and greater self-sufficiency in key commodities.

The revised law is also expected to place additional emphasis on safeguarding arable land, improving rural infrastructure, advancing agricultural mechanization and strengthening farmer protections. Chinese officials have increasingly stressed the importance of preventing the loss of farmland to industrial or real estate development while boosting long-term productivity through technology and state-directed investment.

Meanwhile, the overhaul reflects broader structural pressures inside China’s rural economy. Slowing economic growth, weak consumer demand and persistent local government debt problems have complicated efforts to raise rural incomes and sustain agricultural profitability. Policymakers are increasingly attempting to use agriculture policy not only as a food-security tool, but also as a stabilizer for employment and domestic consumption.

The draft legislation remains under review and could undergo additional revisions before final approval by the National People’s Congress. Still, the move signals that agricultural policy is becoming an even more central component of China’s long-term economic and national security planning.

—Redistricting battles intensify as Cook Political Report warns of “nuclear war” environment ahead of 2026 midterms

Dave Wasserman and the Cook Political Report team say escalating court fights, aggressive partisan map-drawing, and rapidly shifting state-level boundaries are transforming the 2026 redistricting cycle into an all-out political war with major implications for House control 

In the latest Editors Roundtable from the Cook Political Report (CPR), election analyst David Wasserman and the CPR team argued that the battle over congressional maps has entered an exceptionally volatile phase, with both parties increasingly willing to use aggressive legal and political tactics to maximize House gains ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

The discussion centered on the rapidly evolving redistricting landscape in key states including Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia, where recent court decisions and newly proposed maps could significantly alter the balance of power in the House. The CPR analysts described the current environment as unprecedented in both intensity and partisan stakes, with Wasserman characterizing the fight as “nuclear war” in terms of redistricting escalation.

According to the panel, Republicans currently appear positioned to benefit from several favorable developments, particularly in states where courts have allowed more aggressive GOP-drawn maps to move forward. Florida has emerged as one of the most consequential battlegrounds, with CPR analysts estimating Republicans could potentially gain as many as four additional seats under proposed new congressional lines. Tennessee and Virginia were also highlighted as major flashpoints after recent judicial actions reshaped expectations for Democratic opportunities.

The broader concern discussed by the CPR team is that mid-decade redistricting — once relatively uncommon — is becoming increasingly normalized as both parties search for structural advantages before the next census cycle. Analysts warned that the legal precedent surrounding Voting Rights Act challenges, partisan gerrymandering disputes, and state supreme court rulings could encourage additional states to revisit maps before 2026.

The Editors Roundtable also tied the redistricting fights to the broader national political environment heading into the midterms. CPR analysts noted that while historical trends would normally favor Democrats in a midterm under a Republican president, structural map advantages could blunt or even offset some of those traditional dynamics in critical House battlegrounds.

The subscriber-only discussion reflects growing attention in Washington to the role court rulings and redistricting decisions may play in determining House control, particularly as both parties prepare for what is increasingly expected to be a highly competitive and legally contentious 2026 election cycle.

2025-2026 Redistricting Tracker: How Many Seats Could Flip?

The Cook Political Report is tracking developments in every state taking up mid-decade redistricting, as well as the gains that each party could make under new maps. 

CPR currently projects that the likeliest scenario is Republicans netting around six to seven seats, following a ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court on the Voting Rights Act and a ruling from the Supreme Court of Virginia overturning the state’s new map. Given that scenario, CPR says, “we still believe that Democrats [are] favored to win control of the House due to the poor national environment for the GOP. But they are no longer overwhelming favorites.”

— NWS outlook: There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Rockies into the Central Great Basin on Wednesday… …There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains on Thursday… …Mixed precipitation for the Northern Intermountain Region overnight Thursday.

—U.S. weather pattern shifts raise crop stress concerns while rain relief looms

Extended dryness and extreme heat boost planting pace but increase risks for Corn Belt and winter wheat areas

A persistently dry weather pattern across the Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat belt is expected to continue through Thursday, allowing farmers to make rapid planting progress but intensifying concerns over declining soil moisture and crop stress. States including Iowa and Minnesota remain especially vulnerable as limited precipitation combines with increasing heat to further dry already parched topsoil conditions.

The developing weather pattern also features a sharp temperature divide across the country. Cooler conditions are expected to persist in the eastern U.S., while the central Plains and western Corn Belt face exceptional heat through the weekend, with temperatures climbing 10 degrees or more above seasonal norms and reaching into the 90s in some areas. The hotter conditions are expected to place additional stress on developing hard red winter wheat crops already dealing with moisture shortages.

Forecasters, however, are projecting a significant pattern change beginning Friday and continuing into the 6–10-day outlook period. An active storm system is expected to bring near to above-normal rainfall across much of the middle of the country, offering critical moisture relief for deteriorating crops and dry soils. At the same time, the anticipated rainfall is likely to abruptly slow or temporarily halt widespread planting operations that had accelerated during the recent dry stretch.

The extended outlook also points to a notable cooling trend. Much cooler temperatures are forecast to move into the Plains and western Corn Belt by early next week before spreading into the eastern Corn Belt by midweek, easing some of the heat-related stress concerns for crops.

Meanwhile, the Mid-South and Southeast are expected to remain mostly dry through the weekend, providing additional time for spring fieldwork before a transition toward wetter conditions in Week Two. That rainfall could help alleviate longer-term drought concerns developing across portions of the southern growing regions.