Trump Vows Fertilizer, Energy Relief for Farmers Within 90 Days

Second Texas screwworm case raises concerns, but USDA stresses outbreak remains contained | Texas Gov. takes action on screwworm | U.S./India trade talks advance toward July deadline | Federal managers move ahead with Colorado River plan as state talks stall | U.S. crackdown on Mexican truck drivers tightens cross-border freight market

Link: Structural Change or Just Another Down Cycle?

Note: Update for Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives coming Sunday, June 7

TOP STORIES
 

— Trump vows fertilizer, energy relief for farmers within 90 days: President ties cost promises to Iran war resolution as input prices squeeze margins heading into summer

— Second Texas screwworm case raises concerns, but USDA stresses outbreak remains contained: New detection highlights risks to cattle industry as federal and state officials intensify surveillance efforts

— Mexico turns border closure into beef export opportunity: Screwworm-related cattle restrictions are accelerating a structural shift in North American beef trade, allowing Mexico to capture more value through feeding, processing and beef exports rather than shipping live cattle to the U.S.

— Screwworm jumps to the top of the cattle industry’s risk list: Mike Sands warns market could be underestimating economic and supply-chain implications of South Texas cases

— Canada tightens livestock import rules after Texas screwworm detection: CFIA bars entry of animals recently in Texas as officials move to prevent the spread of the destructive livestock parasite into Canada

— U.S./India trade talks advance toward July deadline: Indian officials say a first-stage trade agreement could be completed by mid-July, despite tariff disputes and new U.S. scrutiny over forced-labor practices

— USMCA review likely to miss July deadline, setting stage for extended trade uncertainty: Trump administration appears poised to use review process to seek new concessions on autos, dairy and manufacturing

— Federal managers move ahead with Colorado River plan as state talks stall: Bureau of Reclamation proposes 10-year framework with mandatory renegotiations every two years amid worsening drought, shrinking reservoirs, and lack of consensus among seven basin states
 

WAR WITH IRAN
 

— Keane: Iran talks are a dead end, military pressure may be only remaining option: Retired four-star general says Tehran is using negotiations to buy time and argues the U.S. should be prepared to resume large-scale military operations if diplomacy fails
 

FINANCIAL MARKETS
 

— Equities Friday and weekly change: Technology stocks led a sharp market retreat Friday, with the Nasdaq suffering its steepest one-day decline in more than a year, falling nearly 5%, while the S&P 500 had its worst day since October and snapped a nine-week winning run, fueled by AI-sector weakness and a stronger-than-expected May jobs report

— Financial week ahead: inflation, Iran and central banks set the tone for markets: Markets focus on Middle East risks, U.S. inflation data and key central bank decisions
 

AG MARKETS
 

— Ag markets end lower as weather pressure and fund selling weigh on grains: Favorable crop prospects, improving global wheat outlook and broad commodity weakness trigger a difficult week for row-crop markets while livestock remains a bright spot

CARBON PIPELINE

— Summit Carbon pipeline faces $15 million contract lawsuit as trial nears: Delaware judge set to hear dispute between Summit Carbon Solutions and pipe manufacturer Welspun over canceled pipeline contract amid continued uncertainty surrounding the carbon capture project

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Friday: oil retreats as diplomatic hopes offset supply concerns: Middle East tensions ease modestly, but Strait of Hormuz disruptions and geopolitical risks continue to support crude prices

— Japan ramps up used cooking oil collection to meet sustainable aviation fuel goals: Nation turns to households, retailers and businesses as it races to supply 10% of aviation fuel demand with SAF by 2030

FEDERAL COURTS & AG POLICY

— Federal judge blocks USDA funding conditions tied to Trump policy priorities: Court sides with 20 states, preserves access to nutrition and farm program funding

TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS

— U.S. crackdown on Mexican truck drivers tightens cross-border freight market: Visa revocations over cabotage violations raise costs, capacity concerns and trade friction

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley, Central Plains, and Southern Plains Saturday and Sunday, with Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, Northern High Plains, Ohio Valley, and Northeast
 

TOP STORIES—Trump vows fertilizer, energy relief for farmers within 90 daysPresident ties cost promises to Iran war resolution as input prices squeeze margins heading into summerPresident Donald Trump made his most direct commitment yet on farm input costs Friday, promising Wisconsin farmers that fertilizer and energy prices will fall sharply within 90 days as the administration works to resolve the conflict with Iran. Speaking at a roundtable at Custer Farms in Chippewa Falls — his first Wisconsin visit since his 2024 re-election — Trump told gathered producers that relief is coming. “Your fertilizer prices are going to go way down, just like they were four months ago,” he said. “Your fertilizer is down, your energy is down, your oil, your gas, is all coming way down.” USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, Sen. Ron Johnson, and Reps. Derrick Van Orden and Tom Tiffany joined the president on stage. The remarks go considerably further than the administration’s earlier signals. Trump had previously indicated the White House was “looking at something” for energy and fertilizer without offering specifics. Friday’s comments put a timeline on relief — 90 days — and tie the outlook explicitly to an anticipated end to the Iran war rather than a new domestic policy program. The president offered no specific mechanism for lowering costs. Trump said, without providing more details, that his administration is “looking at something to take the place of what’s happened” with regards to oil and fertilizer spikes, calling the cost hikes “artificial.” The stakes for farmers are significant. Fertilizer prices have risen approximately 40% since the start of the Iran conflict, according to the Associated Press, while the national average gasoline price hit $4.22 on Friday. A March study from Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture described the combined spike in diesel and fertilizer costs as “a severe shock arriving at the worst possible time for spring planting.” Roughly 70% of American farmers report they cannot afford all the fertilizer they need for the coming crop year, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. Those pressures have effectively erased the administration’s earlier relief efforts. The $12 billion Farmer Bridge Payment program announced last December — originally designed to offset trade disruption from tariffs — has been largely offset by Iran war-driven input cost increases, leaving many producers in no better financial position than during the volatile year of 2025. Rollins had previewed a broader initiative in late April, describing an upcoming fertilizer announcement as a large-scale investment initiative spanning USDA, EPA, the Department of Energy, Commerce, and the Interior. She framed fertilizer supply as a matter of national security and pointed to domestic LNG resources as the foundation for expanding U.S. nitrogen production capacity. The administration was still finalizing the size of the funding package at that time, and no formal announcement has followed. Trump’s Chippewa Falls visit also carried clear political undertones. With midterm elections six months away and his job approval near all-time lows in national polling, the president used the event to tout trade deals, regulatory rollbacks including right-to-repair provisions, and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s strengthened commodity reference prices. The district is among the most competitive in Wisconsin heading into the fall cycle. Trump reminded farmers that his administration provided roughly $28 billion in aid during the trade disputes of his first term and suggested a similar support package could be considered if needed. He emphasized that farmers have historically preferred fair trade opportunities over government subsidies, recounting conversations with producers who asked for a level playing field rather than direct payments. The president highlighted several agricultural priorities, including year-round E15 sales, expanded export opportunities, preservation of tax provisions in the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” repeal of what he described as burdensome regulations, and continued efforts to lower farm input costs. He also pointed to recent job growth figures and claimed agricultural incomes have improved since his return to office. Farmers participating in the discussion repeatedly stressed the importance of fair trade, lower input costs, stronger export demand, and policies that allow farms to be passed on to future generations. Several also cited concentration among seed, fertilizer, and meatpacking companies as an ongoing challenge for producers. For agriculture markets, Trump’s most notable news was his statement that the administration is “looking at something” for farmers affected by rising fertilizer and energy costs, suggesting potential policy or financial support could emerge if current geopolitical tensions continue to impact farm profitability. For corn producers in particular, the pressure is acute. Corn is among the most fertilizer-intensive row crops, and nitrogen costs remain a primary driver of planting decisions. Until the administration converts Trump’s 90-day pledge into a specific policy — whether through a formal Rollins announcement, tariff relief on imported nutrients, domestic production incentives, or energy-related measures — markets are unlikely to respond. Farm groups, fertilizer manufacturers, and grain producers will be watching closely for whether Friday’s promise translates into action before summer fieldwork wraps up.—Second Texas screwworm case raises concerns, but USDA stresses outbreak remains containedNew detection highlights risks to cattle industry as federal and state officials intensify surveillance efforts USDA on Friday confirmed a second case of New World screwworm (NWS) in a one-month-old calf in Zavala County, Texas (link), adding to concerns about the parasite’s return to the United States after nearly a decade. The newly infected calf was found approximately 5.6 miles from the first confirmed case announced earlier this week, placing it well within the 20-kilometer (12-mile) quarantine and surveillance zone already established by federal and state animal health officials. USDA officials emphasized that the second case was detected inside the existing containment area and does not necessarily indicate that the outbreak is spreading beyond the controlled zone. The agency has accelerated sterile fly releases, movement controls, animal inspections and surveillance efforts designed to prevent the flesh-eating parasite from becoming established in the United States. The second detection nevertheless raises the stakes for the cattle industry because it confirms that the initial case was not an isolated event. The critical question now is whether additional cases emerge outside the quarantine zone. If future detections remain clustered within the current containment area, animal health officials are likely to view the outbreak as manageable. A broader geographic spread, however, could prompt expanded restrictions on livestock movement and heighten concerns across the cattle sector. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott expanded a statewide disaster declaration in response to the screwworm’s arrival in Texas. Abbott’s expanded order authorizes the use of “all available resources of state government to respond to this disaster,” he said shortly before signingthe declaration during a news conference in Austin. The order further reassigns all resources from across the state as needed and makes available all state personnel, including those from university systems, to speed the shipment of sterile flies into Texas and the construction of a sterile fly facility in South Texas. Quote of note: “Here is the reality of this cycle. This is likely to spread over the course of the summer. During winter months, it may kill off the flies or reduce their number, but we can’t make it through a second summer,” Abbott said. “So I am pushing for the facility in the state of Texas, under construction right now, to be completed by May of next year, as opposed to November of next year.” The state is prioritizing resources for Zavala County and nearby Uvalde County. Abbott said the federal government is covering the cost of building facilities to raise and distribute sterile flies, adding that state agencies don’t need additional funds to meet his order but money will be provided if necessary. “We need a high volume of sterile flies as quickly as possible. It’s great news we are getting the volume that we are getting both from Panama, as well as Mexico, but listen, it’s critical that the new facility that is being constructed right now be completed even faster,” Abbott said. The governor’s expanded disaster proclamation follows a series of emergency declarations by county judges, including those in Kinney, Jim Webb and Uvalde counties. State law gives broad authority to the Texas governor and health commissioner in times of crisis, including the ability to waive laws that hinder state agencies’ ability to appropriately respond to screwworm. Gov. Greg Abbott signs an emergency declaration related to the New World screwworm at a news conference at the Texas Emergency Operations Center on Friday, June 5, 2026. Leila Saidane for The Texas Tribune Val Verde County Judge Lewis Owens took issue took issue with USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins blaming the proliferation of screwworm on President Joe Biden’s “open border” policies, which she said enabled the illicit movement of cattle throughout Mexico. “These flies do not fly to new areas on their own,” Rollins said during a call with media and officials on Thursday. “If they move, it’s because they are moving with the animal.” Owens pointed out that the USDA, under the Biden administration, closed ports of entry to cattle from Mexico in November 2024. The Trump administration announced their reopening in February 2025 only to shut them down again in May 2025. Crossings have been shut down, Owens said, adding: “So, let’s not keep blaming individuals or blaming other parties.” USDA is building a facility in Edinburg that will produce 300 million sterile flies per week. However, that facility is not expected to begin operating until fall 2027. “I specifically offered anybody and everybody from Texas A&M, anybody and everybody from any state agency, offering to ensure construction can be conducted 24 hours a day, seven days a week, to make sure the facility in Texas will be up and running even faster than what is currently scheduled,” Abbott said Friday. Federal officials are also working with Mexican partners to launch a facility in Metapa, Mexico that is expected to open later this month. Currently, the only active sterile fly production facility is in Panama. Sterile flies from that facility have been shipped to dispersal facilities in Mexico and Edinburg to help spread sterile flies to needed areas. Of note: Nowell Borders, an Edinburg rancher with ranches in Mexico, told The Texas Tribune, that he was concerned about his animals but was more worried about wildlife that will be much more difficult to catch and check for screwworm. “Deer is a several billion-dollar business in Texas and hunting, and I think it could be a detriment, a huge detriment to wildlife,” Borders said. Borders owns a 100,000-square-foot facility in South Texas that he has offered as a pop-up production facility for sterile flies. The New World screwworm is among the most destructive livestock parasites because its larvae feed on living tissue rather than dead tissue. Animals can quickly develop severe wounds and infections, and untreated infestations can become fatal. The United States successfully eradicated the pest decades ago through an extensive sterile insect release program, although isolated outbreaks have occasionally occurred, including a 2016 infestation among deer in the Florida Keys. The current Texas cases represent the first mainland U.S. livestock detections in years and come after an accelerating spread of the pest through parts of Mexico. For cattle producers, the timing is particularly challenging. The U.S. cattle herd remains near historic lows, and beef supplies are already constrained. Any disruption to cattle movements, prolonged restrictions on imports from Mexico or expansion of quarantine zones could further tighten supplies and lend support to already elevated cattle and beef prices. The outbreak has already prompted additional precautionary measures. Georgia announced restrictions on livestock and pet movements from several Texas counties, illustrating how state officials are seeking to limit the risk of the parasite spreading beyond the affected area. Meanwhile, USDA has reiterated that the screwworm poses no threat to the food supply and that approved animal treatments are available and already being distributed to affected regions. Zavala County, located near the Mexican border southwest of San Antonio, is not one of Texas’ largest cattle-producing regions but still supports a sizable livestock industry with an estimated 37,000 head of cattle. Its location is significant because federal officials have long viewed south Texas as the most vulnerable entry point for screwworm should infestations in Mexico continue moving northward. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the outbreak remains localized or evolves into a broader animal health challenge. USDA’s response strategy is built on decades of successful eradication experience, and officials appear confident that aggressive surveillance and sterile fly releases can contain the parasite. However, with Texas accounting for roughly 12.1 million cattle, or about 14% of the national herd, the livestock industry will be closely monitoring every new detection. From a market perspective, the second case is unlikely to have an immediate impact on cattle supplies or beef production. However, it reinforces concerns about potential future disruptions at a time when the cattle sector has little room for additional supply shocks. Unless new cases are found outside the current quarantine area, the development is likely to be viewed as a containment challenge rather than a full-scale outbreak. Still, the confirmation of a second infected calf serves as a reminder that vigilance will be essential as animal health officials work to prevent the parasite from gaining a foothold in the United States.—Mexico turns border closure into beef export opportunityScrewworm-related cattle restrictions are accelerating a structural shift in North American beef trade, allowing Mexico to capture more value through feeding, processing and beef exports rather than shipping live cattle to the U.S. The U.S. suspension of Mexican cattle imports because of the New World screwworm outbreak is creating an unintended winner: Mexico’s domestic beef industry. While U.S. feedlots and processors, particularly in Texas, have lost access to a key source of feeder cattle, Mexican producers are increasingly retaining animals, feeding them to heavier weights, and exporting finished beef products to the United States.In northern Mexico’s cattle-producing state of Coahuila, ranchers who traditionally shipped live cattle north are investing in feedlots, meat processing plants and workforce expansion. Producers are keeping cattle longer, adding weight domestically and capturing profits that historically accrued to U.S. feeders and packers. The shift is showing up in trade data. Mexican beef exports to the United States surged during the first four months of 2026 as processors capitalized on strong U.S. demand and elevated cattle prices. Instead of exporting relatively low-value feeder cattle, Mexico is increasingly exporting higher-value boxed beef and beef cuts. For the U.S. cattle sector, the development highlights the economic costs of the border closure. The U.S. entered 2026 with its smallest cattle herd in decades, making imported Mexican feeder cattle especially important for feedlot supplies. The shutdown has tightened cattle availability further, supporting record-high cattle prices but reducing throughput at feedlots and meatpacking facilities. The situation also illustrates a broader strategic concern for U.S. cattle producers. Historically, the North American cattle industry functioned as an integrated supply chain, with Mexico supplying feeder cattle that were finished and processed in the United States. The screwworm outbreak has disrupted that model and may encourage longer-term investment south of the border. If Mexico continues expanding feeding and slaughter capacity, some of that business may not return to the United States even after the border reopens. Once feedlots, packing plants and export channels are established, producers have a financial incentive to keep more value-added activity at home. Meatpackers feel the squeeze as cattle supplies tighten. The closure of the U.S./Mexico border to live cattle imports has intensified pressure on U.S. meatpackers and cattle feeders by further tightening an already constrained cattle supply chain. Major processors, including Tyson Foods, have reported significant losses in their beef operations as soaring cattle costs continue to outpace gains in wholesale beef prices. Industry executives say additional cattle supplies are essential to keep packing plants operating efficiently, and many view the resumption of Mexican cattle imports as the single most important factor for improving supply availability over the next 12 to 18 months. The supply crunch is already forcing difficult business decisions. Tyson Foods scaled back operations earlier this year at its Amarillo, Texas, beef plant and permanently closed a large Nebraska beef processing facility, eliminating thousands of jobs. The company said the actions were necessary to align operations with the shrinking cattle herd and improve competitiveness. Other major processors, including JBS and Cargill, have also felt the strain. Both companies have encountered unusual labor disputes at U.S. beef plants as workers sought higher wages amid inflation and industry uncertainty, highlighting how the cattle shortage is reverberating throughout the entire beef supply chain—from ranches and feedlots to packing plants and labor markets. From a market perspective, the trend could have mixed implications. In the short term, reduced feeder cattle imports are supportive to U.S. cattle prices and beef values. Over the longer term, however, a larger and more sophisticated Mexican beef-processing sector could emerge as a stronger competitor in the U.S. beef market. The development underscores that disease-related trade restrictions often reshape supply chains in unexpected ways. While the U.S. imposed the cattle import ban to protect its herd from screwworm, the policy is also accelerating investments that could permanently alter the flow of cattle and beef across the North American market.—Screwworm jumps to the top of the cattle industry’s risk listMike Sands warns market could be underestimating economic and supply-chain implications of South Texas cases On Tuesday, June 2, before USDA confirmed the first U.S. case of New World screwworm, the“Fat Tuesday with Mike Sands” podcast from AgBull (link), Sand said the New World screwworm has rapidly become the dominant issue facing the cattle industry. Sands focused on the biological threat, the potential market ramifications, and the need for aggressive containment, arguing that producers should not view the outbreak as merely a localized animal-health event but as a broader supply-chain risk for an already historically tight cattle sector.  The discussion comes as federal and state officials race to contain the first Texas cases since the parasite was eradicated from the United States. The infected calves were identified in Zavala County (link), triggering quarantine measures, enhanced surveillance, fly trapping, and sterile-fly releases designed to prevent establishment of a breeding population. Sands emphasized that the industry’s concern is not simply the number of current cases but the speed at which screwworm can spread if containment fails. Unlike many livestock diseases, screwworm larvae consume living tissue, causing severe damage to cattle, wildlife, horses, pets, and occasionally humans. The economic consequences can escalate quickly if infestations become widespread. A central theme of the discussion was the vulnerability of the U.S. cattle industry. With the national cattle herd already at multi-decade lows, any disruption that affects animal movement, feeder cattle supplies, or cross-border trade with Mexico could amplify price volatility. The closure of Mexican cattle imports earlier this year had already tightened supplies, and additional restrictions could further complicate herd rebuilding efforts. Sands also highlighted the importance of the sterile insect technique, the same strategy that successfully eradicated screwworm from the United States decades ago. Federal officials are expanding sterile-fly production and deployment while accelerating plans for additional production facilities in Mexico and Texas. However, the challenge remains one of scale, as experts estimate hundreds of millions of sterile flies may be required weekly to maintain an effective barrier against the pest’s northward movement. The cattle market is increasingly treating screwworm as more than a veterinary issue. The risk comes at a time when beef supplies are already constrained by years of drought-driven liquidation and historically low cattle inventories. If the infestation remains confined to a limited area of South Texas, market impacts are likely to be temporary and largely psychological. However, additional detections could quickly shift the conversation toward livestock movement restrictions, expanded quarantines, and prolonged trade disruptions. For producers, the key variable will be whether USDA’s containment strategy succeeds before summer conditions allow the fly population to expand. For traders, the issue adds another layer of uncertainty to feeder cattle and live cattle markets that are already highly sensitive to supply shocks. The industry’s experience in the 1960s and the successful Florida response in 2016-17 provide confidence that eradication is achievable. The question now is whether authorities can stay ahead of the parasite’s spread as it pressures the southern border region and threatens to test the resilience of the U.S. cattle supply chain.—Canada tightens livestock import rules after Texas screwworm detectionCFIA bars entry of animals recently in Texas as officials move to prevent the spread of the destructive livestock parasite into Canada  The Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) has imposed temporary import restrictions on livestock and horses from areas affected by New World screwworm following the recent confirmation of the parasite in a calf in Texas. Effective immediately, animals that originated in or were present in Texas within 21 days before crossing the border will not be permitted entry into Canada.The move mirrors precautionary actions already taken by several U.S. states and reflects growing concern about the northward spread of the flesh-eating parasite. CFIA officials said the restrictions are intended to reduce the risk of introducing New World screwworm into Canada, particularly during the warmer summer months when the fly can survive for limited periods despite Canada’s generally unfavorable climate. New World screwworm larvae feed on the living tissue of warm-blooded animals, causing severe wounds that can become fatal if left untreated. The pest can infest cattle, horses, sheep, goats, wildlife, pets, and, in rare cases, humans. Symptoms include worsening wounds accompanied by discharge and a foul odor. The Canadian action adds another layer of pressure on North American livestock movements and underscores how seriously animal health officials are treating the Texas case. Canada already bans imports of cattle, bison, sheep, goats, cervids, and swine from Mexico because of screwworm concerns and maintains strict import conditions on horses from Mexico. CFIA emphasized that New World screwworm is not established in Canada and cannot survive Canadian winters, but officials remain concerned about seasonal introductions. Livestock owners and veterinarians are being urged to monitor animals closely for suspicious wounds and report potential cases immediately, as laboratory testing is required to confirm infestations. The decision highlights the broader trade and animal health implications of the Texas detection, with regulators across North America moving quickly to prevent the parasite from gaining a foothold beyond its traditional range in Mexico, the Caribbean, and South America. For the livestock industry, the Canadian restrictions are another sign that reopening and normalizing cross-border animal movements could become more complicated until confidence is restored that the screwworm threat is fully contained.—U.S./India trade talks advance toward July deadlineIndian officials say a first-stage trade agreement could be completed by mid-July, despite tariff disputes and new U.S. scrutiny over forced-labor practices India’s Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said Friday that negotiations with the United States are progressing rapidly and that an interim bilateral trade agreement could be finalized by mid-July. Goyal indicated that a higher-level U.S. delegation is expected to travel to India later this month after a recent visit by Assistant U.S. Trade Representative Brendan Lynch and his team, which he described as “excellent” and productive. According to Goyal, negotiators are working to close remaining issues in what would be the first phase of a broader trade pact aimed at expanding market access and strengthening economic ties between the two countries. He said the goal is to implement a “vibrant first tranche” of the agreement by the middle of next month. The July timeline is significant because current 10% U.S. tariffs on Indian goods imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 are scheduled to expire on July 24. Those tariffs were implemented after a Supreme Court ruling invalidated tariffs previously imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), forcing both countries to adjust the framework of their negotiations. Complicating the talks is a newly released U.S. Trade Representative Section 301 investigation proposing a 12.5% tariff on imports from 54 countries, including India, over alleged shortcomings in preventing imports produced with forced labor. India has pushed back on the findings but said it remains engaged with Washington both on the Section 301 process and on broader trade negotiations. Despite the new tariff proposal and President Donald Trump’s renewed criticism of India’s historically high tariff barriers, most observers believe the trade talks remain on track. Trump said Thursday that India had “for years taken advantage of the United States,” but added that he expects a deal because of his strong relationship with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Former U.S. trade official Mark Linscott said neither the Section 301 proposal nor Trump’s remarks are likely to derail negotiations. He noted that both countries anticipated the forced-labor review and that the talks appear to be in their final stages, although the remaining issues are often the most difficult to resolve. The broader objective remains a more comprehensive bilateral trade agreement that could eventually provide India with preferential access to the U.S. market while addressing long-standing U.S. concerns over tariffs, market access, labor standards, and other trade barriers. For agriculture, the negotiations are being closely watched because India remains one of the world’s most protected major markets for farm products. Any agreement that lowers tariffs or improves access for U.S. commodities such as ethanol, feed ingredients, tree nuts, pulses, dairy products, and other agricultural exports could create meaningful opportunities for U.S. producers. The next six weeks are expected to be critical as negotiators race to complete an agreement before the July 24 tariff deadline.—USMCA review likely to miss July deadline, setting stage for extended trade uncertaintyTrump administration appears poised to use review process to seek new concessions on autos, dairy and manufacturing The United States, Mexico and Canada are increasingly expected to miss the July 1 deadline for extending the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), triggering a formal review process that could stretch for months or even years. While the trade pact would remain in force until at least 2036, failure to renew it outright would shift North America’s largest trade agreement into annual reviews and negotiations, creating a prolonged period of uncertainty for businesses and investors across the continent. The development appears consistent with the Trump administration’s broader trade strategy of using deadlines, tariffs and uncertainty as leverage to extract concessions from trading partners. Rather than pursuing a straightforward 16-year extension of the agreement negotiated during President Trump’s first term, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has indicated Washington intends to use the review process to seek changes in key sectors, particularly automotive manufacturing. At stake is nearly $2 trillion in annual North American trade. The USMCA has largely shielded compliant goods from many of the tariffs imposed under Trump’s broader trade agenda, making its future critically important for agriculture, manufacturing, energy and transportation industries. A central U.S. objective appears to be tightening automotive rules of origin. The administration is reportedly pursuing a requirement that vehicles contain at least 50% U.S.-made content to qualify for tariff-free treatment. Such a move would go well beyond the current USMCA framework and reflects Trump’s longstanding goal of reshoring manufacturing jobs from Mexico and Canada back to the United States. For agriculture, the review process could reopen familiar disputes. Canada’s dairy supply management system remains a major irritant for U.S. negotiators, while Mexico continues to face pressure on biotechnology approvals, labor standards and broader market access issues. Although agriculture has generally benefited under USMCA, the annual review process could inject uncertainty into sectors ranging from dairy and poultry to grains and livestock. The review also comes against a backdrop of escalating tariff disputes. Despite USMCA protections, Canada and Mexico have been subjected to tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles, underscoring the administration’s willingness to separate tariff policy from trade agreement obligations. Canadian officials are particularly focused on obtaining relief from those tariffs as part of any broader negotiations. Pressure tactic or fundamental rewrite? The most important question for markets is whether the administration is using the review process as a negotiating tactic or whether it seeks a more fundamental restructuring of North American trade rules. The likely answer is both. Administration officials appear interested in avoiding the politically difficult process of reopening the actual USMCA text, which could require congressional approval. Instead, negotiators are exploring side agreements, protocols and bilateral arrangements that could effectively modify how the agreement operates without formally amending it. This approach offers Washington greater flexibility while maintaining leverage over Canada and Mexico. However, it also prolongs uncertainty for companies making long-term investment decisions. For Mexico, the timing is particularly challenging. Investment has already weakened amid tariff uncertainty, and the automotive sector — one of the country’s most important export industries — could face additional pressure if stricter U.S.-content requirements emerge. Canada faces similar concerns. Prime Minister Mark Carney has attempted to ease tensions through cooperation on critical minerals, energy and defense issues, but Ottawa remains vulnerable to further tariff actions and political pressure from Washington. Implications for agriculture. For U.S. agriculture, the near-term impact is likely limited because the USMCA remains in effect regardless of whether the July deadline is met. However, prolonged negotiations could create uncertainty for future investment decisions involving grain handling, livestock production, food processing and cross-border supply chains. Canada and Mexico remain the two largest export markets for many U.S. agricultural products, including corn, soybeans, dairy products, meat and ethanol. Any deterioration in trade relations could have significant consequences for rural America. The good news for agriculture is that all three countries have strong incentives to preserve the core agreement. The challenge is that the review process may become intertwined with broader disputes over tariffs, manufacturing policy, critical minerals, energy security and national competitiveness. Looking ahead. Rather than viewing July 1 as a make-or-break deadline, markets increasingly see it as the beginning of a new negotiation phase. The U.S. and Mexico are already planning additional talks in mid-July, while discussions with Canada continue on a less formal basis. The greatest risk may not be withdrawal from USMCA itself, but a prolonged period of rolling negotiations that discourages investment and leaves businesses uncertain about future trade rules. For agriculture, manufacturing and energy sectors that depend heavily on integrated North American supply chains, that uncertainty could become the biggest cost of all. —Federal managers move ahead with Colorado River plan as state talks stallBureau of Reclamation proposes 10-year framework with mandatory renegotiations every two years amid worsening drought, shrinking reservoirs, and lack of consensus among seven basin states Federal Colorado River managers will move forward with a federal management framework after the seven basin states failed to reach agreement on how to share and manage the river’s increasingly scarce water supplies. Speaking at a Colorado River conference in Boulder, Acting Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Scott Cameron said the agency plans to implement a 10-year framework that would require states to renegotiate operating rules every two years.The proposal reflects growing uncertainty over the river’s future as prolonged drought, declining runoff, and chronic overuse continue to strain the system. Cameron acknowledged that federal officials had repeatedly attempted to broker a long-term agreement among Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, Arizona, California, and Nevada, but negotiations have repeatedly broken down despite extensive discussions involving governors and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum. Under the federal approach, Reclamation intends to release a two-year operating plan by midsummer so it can be finalized before the new water year begins on Oct. 1. While federal officials would still welcome a basin-wide agreement at any time, hopes for a decades-long settlement have largely faded. State negotiators expressed concern that constant renegotiation could create uncertainty for water planning, infrastructure investments, and conservation projects. Colorado negotiator Becky Mitchell warned that failure to reach a durable agreement could trigger years of litigation, while Nevada negotiator John Entsminger cautioned against allowing courts or Congress to determine the river’s future. The urgency is underscored by worsening hydrologic conditions. Lake Powell is only 24% full and Lake Mead stands at 29% capacity. Forecasts indicate inflows into Lake Powell during this year’s runoff season will reach just 15% of the 1991-2020 average, the lowest level on record. To stabilize reservoir levels and protect hydropower generation at Glen Canyon Dam, federal officials recently authorized the release of up to 1 million acre-feet of water from Flaming Gorge Reservoir. Cameron emphasized, however, that such emergency transfers are only temporary measures and cannot solve the basin’s long-term water deficit. The federal action highlights the growing challenge facing the Colorado River Basin, which supplies water to roughly 40 million people and supports a significant share of Western U.S. agriculture. Without a comprehensive agreement, water users across the region face continued uncertainty as declining supplies force difficult allocation decisions.

—Keane: Iran talks are a dead end, military pressure may be only remaining option

Retired four-star general says Tehran is using negotiations to buy time and argues the U.S. should be prepared to resume large-scale military operations if diplomacy fails

Retired Gen. Jack Keane, former Army vice chief of staff and chairman of the Institute for the Study of War, said President Trump should recognize that a nuclear or security agreement with Iran is unlikely and that Tehran is using negotiations primarily to delay further U.S. military action.

Speaking on Fox News, Keane argued that Iran’s leadership is stretching out talks in hopes of reaching a point where domestic political considerations, including the 2026 midterm elections, make it less likely the Trump administration would resume military operations. He contended that Iran has a long history of violating agreements and warned against providing sanctions relief or economic concessions that could strengthen the regime.

While praising Trump’s decision to launch military operations against Iran earlier this year, Keane said the campaign ended before achieving its full objectives. He claimed U.S. and Israeli forces had significantly weakened Iran militarily and economically but stopped short of delivering a decisive blow. According to Keane, the pause in combat has allowed Iran time to regroup, while also providing the U.S. and its allies with additional intelligence and target opportunities.

Keane rejected the idea of limited military strikes designed solely to send a warning, arguing that Iran would retaliate regardless of the scale of an attack. Instead, he advocated for a broader campaign aimed at degrading Iran’s military capabilities, weapons infrastructure, and strategic assets to the greatest extent possible while continuing economic pressure on the regime.

The comments come amid growing debate in Washington over whether diplomacy can still produce a durable agreement with Tehran. Military sources cited in the report suggested that some policymakers increasingly doubt additional military pressure alone would change the behavior of Iran’s hardline leadership, given the ideological commitment of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and senior regime officials.

The discussion also reflects continued Israeli support for a tougher approach. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently reiterated his belief that increased pressure could accelerate political change inside Iran, arguing that the regime has been weakened but not defeated.

The broader policy question facing the Trump administration remains whether to continue pursuing negotiations or shift toward a strategy centered on renewed military and economic pressure. Keane’s remarks underscore a growing view among some national security hawks that diplomacy has reached its limits and that the focus should move toward further degrading Iran’s capabilities and increasing pressure on the regime.

—Equities Friday and weekly change: Technology stocks led a sharp market retreat Friday, with the Nasdaq suffering its steepest one-day decline in more than a year, falling nearly 5%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 had its worst day since October and snapped a nine-week winning run. The sell-off was fueled by weakness in artificial intelligence-related shares and a stronger-than-expected May jobs report, which halted the market’s recent record-setting rally. U.S. employers added 172,000 jobs last month, considerably above expectations, raising concerns that resilient labor market conditions could keep inflation pressures elevated and potentially prompt the Federal Reserve to consider additional interest-rate increases later this year while others see no rate changes this year.

—Financial week ahead: inflation, Iran and central banks set the tone for markets

Markets focus on Middle East risks, U.S. inflation data and key central bank decisions

Global markets enter the second week of June with investors closely watching whether any breakthrough emerges in U.S./Iran negotiations, a development that could have significant implications for energy prices, inflation, and monetary policy. Elevated oil prices tied to Middle East tensions and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have renewed concerns about inflation, placing central banks in a difficult position as they weigh economic growth against persistent price pressures.

In the United States, attention will center on the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), the final major inflation readings before the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting. Economists expect headline inflation to rise to 4.2% year-over-year, the highest level since April 2023, largely due to higher energy costs. Core inflation is also forecast to tick up to 2.9%, reinforcing concerns that inflationary pressures may be broadening beyond energy.

The inflation data will be particularly important after May employment growth exceeded expectations, reducing the urgency for the Fed to cut interest rates. If inflation comes in hotter than expected, markets could further push back expectations for policy easing later this year.

Additional U.S. releases include existing home sales, April trade data, the federal budget statement, and preliminary June consumer sentiment figures from the University of Michigan. Consumer confidence remains near historic lows despite a resilient labor market, highlighting ongoing concerns about inflation and household purchasing power.

On the corporate front, investors will closely monitor Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference for details on its artificial intelligence strategy, while earnings reports from Oracle, Adobe, and GameStop could provide insight into business spending and consumer demand trends. The planned debut of SpaceX is expected to attract significant attention as what could become the largest IPO in history.

In Canada, the Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged as policymakers await additional inflation data and assess the impact of recent economic strength. The decision will provide another gauge of how central banks are balancing inflation concerns against slowing global growth.

Elsewhere in the Americas, inflation reports from Brazil and Mexico will be watched closely for signs that higher global energy prices are filtering into consumer prices. Both countries have been among the first major economies to begin easing monetary policy, but rising inflation risks could complicate that path.

China will release trade and inflation figures that could provide a fresh reading on the strength of global demand and the health of the world’s second-largest economy. Markets will be looking for evidence that recent stimulus measures are gaining traction amid ongoing trade tensions and weak domestic consumption.

In Europe, investors will assess monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank while also reviewing economic data from Germany and the United Kingdom, including industrial production, trade balances, and UK GDP. These reports will offer insight into whether Europe’s economy is gaining momentum after a sluggish start to the year.

The dominant theme for global markets remains the intersection of geopolitics and inflation. Energy prices have become the key transmission mechanism linking Middle East developments to financial markets. Any signs of easing tensions between Washington and Tehran could help reduce oil prices and ease inflation concerns. Conversely, continued disruptions to energy supplies could strengthen the case for central banks to remain cautious about cutting interest rates.

For agricultural markets, traders will also be preparing for the release of USDA’s June Crop Production and WASDE reports on Thursday, June 11, which could add another layer of volatility to commodity markets already reacting to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.

The combination of inflation data, central bank decisions, geopolitical risks, and major corporate events makes the coming week one of the most consequential of the month for investors across equities, commodities, currencies, and fixed-income markets.

—Ag markets end lower as weather pressure and fund selling weigh on grains

Favorable crop prospects, improving global wheat outlook and broad commodity weakness trigger a difficult week for row-crop markets while livestock remains a bright spot

Agricultural markets finished the week largely on the defensive as traders focused on improving crop prospects across much of the Northern Hemisphere, ongoing fund liquidation and a lack of immediate weather threats to U.S. corn and soybean production. Most grain and oilseed markets posted substantial weekly losses, while cattle futures continued to demonstrate impressive strength amid historically tight supplies.

Corn futures saw a major downside move, falling 29 1/4 cents for the week. Favorable planting progress, generally adequate moisture across key production areas and expectations for a large 2026 crop encouraged traders to remove weather premium from the market. The trade also continues to grapple with the prospect of trendline or better yields after USDA projected a record national corn yield earlier this season. With crop conditions expected to improve further in upcoming reports, bulls struggled to attract fresh buying interest.

Soybean futures suffered even steeper losses, dropping 65 1/4 cents on the week. Soybeans remain vulnerable to expectations for expanding global supplies, uncertainty regarding export demand and pressure from broader commodity markets. While soybean oil continues to benefit from biofuel policy discussions and renewable fuel demand, those supportive factors were insufficient to offset bearish supply expectations.

Soybean meal posted one of the sharpest setbacks among the major agricultural contracts, declining $20.70 per ton. The weakness reflects expectations for ample global protein supplies and the spillover effect from lower soybean prices.

Soybean oil also retreated, losing 360 points as traders booked profits after recent gains tied to biofuel optimism.

Wheat markets were unable to escape the broader grain weakness. Chicago wheat fell 30 1/2 cents, Kansas City wheat dropped 29 cents, and Minneapolis wheat lost 42 cents. Additional rainfall across northern France, Germany and western Poland, combined with favorable weather in Russia and Ukraine, boosted expectations for larger European and Black Sea wheat crops. Those developments continue to increase competition for U.S. wheat exports and limit upside potential despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

The livestock sector once again provided a stark contrast to grain markets. Live cattle futures gained $2.60 per hundredweight as cash cattle prices remained historically strong and supplies stayed exceptionally tight. The U.S. cattle inventory remains near its lowest level in more than seven decades, providing fundamental support despite concerns over consumer demand and elevated retail beef prices.

Feeder cattle futures surged $5.475 per hundredweight for the week, extending a remarkable rally driven by limited feeder supplies and aggressive demand from feedlots. Although high corn prices have been a concern for cattle feeders, the recent decline in grain markets provided some relief to feeding margins.

Lean hog futures slipped $1.125 per hundredweight as traders monitored export demand and seasonal production trends. While hog supplies remain manageable, the market lacks the bullish supply story currently supporting cattle.

Looking ahead: weather and USDA reports take center stage. Weather forecasts will remain a key driver of grain prices. Forecasts calling for periodic rainfall across much of the Corn Belt continue to favor crop development and keep pressure on corn and soybean futures. However, traders remain cautious about becoming overly bearish too early in the growing season. Any shift toward hotter, drier conditions during pollination could quickly alter market sentiment. Meanwhile, market attention will increasingly shift to USDA’s June Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports scheduled for release Thursday, June 11. While major acreage revisions are not expected until later in the summer, traders will closely scrutinize any changes to U.S. and global corn, soybean and wheat balance sheets, export forecasts, and ending stocks projections.

The reports arrive at a pivotal time for the market. Favorable weather across much of the Corn Belt has reinforced expectations for large U.S. corn and soybean crops, while improving production prospects in Europe, Russia and Ukraine have weighed on wheat prices. If USDA confirms ample domestic and global supplies, the reports could reinforce the recent bearish trend in grains. Conversely, any unexpected tightening in old-crop inventories, stronger export demand, or reductions in South American production estimates could trigger short-covering rallies.

For livestock markets, traders will continue monitoring cash cattle strength, feed costs and beef demand. The recent decline in corn prices has improved feeding margins, providing an additional tailwind for cattle producers already benefiting from historically tight supplies.

The coming week’s USDA reports, combined with evolving weather forecasts, will likely determine whether grains can stabilize after a difficult week or whether the market extends its seasonal decline into mid-June. Meanwhile, cattle markets remain supported by powerful supply fundamentals that continue to overshadow broader commodity weakness.

For now, the market’s message is clear: abundant crop potential is weighing on grains, while historically tight livestock supplies continue to support cattle prices. That divergence is likely to remain a defining feature of agricultural markets through the summer months.

Agriculture markets Friday and weekly change:

Source: Market close data, June 5, 2025. Prices in cents per bushel unless noted.

—Summit carbon pipeline faces $15 million contract lawsuit as trial nears

Delaware judge set to hear dispute between Summit Carbon Solutions and pipe manufacturer Welspun over canceled pipeline contract amid continued uncertainty surrounding the carbon capture project 

A $15 million breach-of-contract lawsuit against Summit Carbon Solutions is moving toward a three-day bench trial beginning June 15 in Delaware after settlement negotiations between Summit and pipe manufacturer Welspun Tubular reached a deadlock. 

Welspun alleges Summit canceled a major pipe supply agreement tied to its proposed Midwest carbon dioxide pipeline project, triggering contractual cancellation fees and material cost reimbursements totaling roughly $15 million. Summit denies wrongdoing, and the case will be decided by a judge rather than a jury. According to reporting by Clark Kauffman of the Iowa Capital Dispatch (link), attorneys for both sides informed the court earlier this year that settlement discussions had reached a “fundamental impasse,” clearing the way for trial.

The dispute stems from a 2023 agreement under which Welspun was contracted to manufacture approximately 785 miles of pipe valued at roughly $183 million for Summit’s multistate carbon capture and sequestration network.

Welspun claims Summit initially exercised contractual provisions allowing production delays as the pipeline project encountered permitting challenges and growing public opposition. The manufacturer alleges that after accommodating multiple postponements, Summit ultimately sought to terminate the agreement altogether when the project fell significantly behind schedule.

According to court filings, Welspun argues the cancellation triggered a contractual fee of approximately $15 million, besides compensation for materials already procured for pipe production. Summit has rejected those claims and maintains it did not violate the agreement.

The lawsuit comes during a period of significant uncertainty for Summit’s carbon pipeline project. In May, the company unveiled major route revisions that would remove several Iowa counties from the proposed pipeline path and shift carbon sequestration plans away from North Dakota to Wyoming.

Those changes followed setbacks in South Dakota, where regulators denied a permit and state lawmakers enacted restrictions on the use of eminent domain for carbon dioxide pipelines. Summit subsequently asked the Iowa Utilities Commission to amend conditions attached to its Iowa permit approval.

Opponents of the project argue the route revisions reflect mounting difficulties for the company. Environmental groups and affected landowners continue to challenge the project, while Iowa property owners have urged state regulators to reject Summit’s latest route proposal.

The upcoming Delaware trial adds another layer of risk for Summit as it works to preserve the viability of its carbon capture network. A ruling in Welspun’s favor could increase financial pressure on the project at a time when regulatory approvals, route changes, and landowner opposition remain significant hurdles to construction.

—Friday: oil retreats as diplomatic hopes offset supply concerns

Middle East tensions ease modestly, but Strait of Hormuz disruptions and geopolitical risks continue to support crude prices

Crude oil futures fell sharply Friday as traders grew more optimistic that tensions between the United States and Iran may be easing, reducing fears of a broader regional conflict. Brent crude settled at $93.09 per barrel, down $1.94, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $90.54, down $2.50. The declines followed steep losses in the previous session as markets reassessed geopolitical risk premiums.

Investor sentiment improved despite the absence of a formal U.S./Iran agreement. Market participants increasingly focused on signs that the conflict may not escalate significantly, while concerns over a potential disruption to Oman’s crude exports eased after Petroleum Development Oman reported that operations at the Mina al Fahal export terminal remained unaffected following reports of an explosion nearby.

Even with Friday’s selloff, both benchmarks posted weekly gains — their first in three weeks. Brent rose 1.2% on the week and WTI gained about 3.6%, supported by ongoing restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and continued uncertainty surrounding U.S./Iran negotiations.

Oil traders are also closely monitoring developments involving Lebanon and Hezbollah, as Iran has tied any broader agreement with Washington to a lasting ceasefire in Lebanon. Optimistic comments from President Trump regarding progress between Israel and Lebanon further reinforced expectations that regional tensions could gradually cool.

Still, several factors continue to underpin crude prices. OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026, while disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continue to constrain energy flows. Countering those bullish influences are slower demand growth in China, alternative export routes, and adequate global inventories, which have helped prevent prices from moving substantially higher.

The oil market ended the week balancing tentative diplomatic progress against persistent supply disruptions and unresolved geopolitical risks across the Middle East, leaving traders highly sensitive to developments in the region.

—Japan ramps up used cooking oil collection to meet sustainable aviation fuel goals

Nation turns to households, retailers and businesses as it races to supply 10% of aviation fuel demand with SAF by 2030

Japan is intensifying efforts to collect used cooking oil from households and businesses as it seeks to dramatically expand production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), a key component of the country’s strategy to reduce aviation emissions and strengthen energy security. According to Reuters, Japan aims to source 10% of its jet fuel from SAF by 2030, requiring an estimated 1.7 million kiloliters annually. Yet current domestic production stands at just 30,000 kiloliters, or about 0.3% of total jet fuel consumption.

The initiative has taken on added urgency amid higher energy costs and concerns about fuel supplies stemming from Middle East tensions. Through the public-private “Fry to Fly” campaign, households are being encouraged to recycle used cooking oil, which is viewed as Japan’s most practical near-term feedstock for SAF production. Roughly 300 collection sites, including supermarkets and community centers, now participate in the program.

Airlines and refiners acknowledge the challenge ahead. Japan’s two largest carriers, ANA and Japan Airlines, recently warned that SAF development is proving more difficult than anticipated due to limited feedstock supplies and infrastructure constraints. Industry officials note that refiners must make final investment decisions by March 2027 to ensure sufficient production capacity by 2030.

Major companies are expanding collection efforts. The Tokyo metropolitan government is targeting the city’s 7.8 million households, while firms such as Fujifilm and retailers including Aeon, Ito-Yokado and 7-Eleven are adding drop-off locations. However, officials estimate that even if every available drop of used cooking oil were recovered nationwide, it would provide only about 550,000 kiloliters of feedstock — enough to meet roughly one-quarter of projected SAF demand.

The economics remain challenging. SAF production requires extensive collection, processing, hydrogenation and refining, making it significantly more expensive than conventional jet fuel. Industry leader Eneos is evaluating a project with Mitsubishi Corporation that could produce 400,000 kiloliters of SAF annually after fiscal 2028, but investment decisions hinge on securing reliable feedstock supplies.

Analysts say Japan will almost certainly need to import SAF or feedstocks to meet its 2030 target. While future technologies such as bioethanol-based jet fuel may eventually supplement supplies, used cooking oil remains the country’s most viable domestic option in the near term. As one industry economist noted, Japan’s 2030 SAF mandate remains highly ambitious, underscoring the broader challenge facing the global aviation sector as it works to reduce carbon emissions.

—Federal judge blocks USDA funding conditions tied to Trump policy priorities

Court sides with 20 states, preserves access to nutrition and farm program funding

A federal judge has temporarily blocked the Trump administration from requiring states to comply with a range of White House policy USDA funding, marking another legal setback for the administration’s effort to use federal grants to advance broader policy objectives.

U.S. District Judge Myong Joun in Boston granted a preliminary injunction sought by attorneys general from 20 Democratic-led states and the District of Columbia. The ruling prevents USDA from withholding federal funds while the lawsuit proceeds. The states argued that the agency’s new certification requirements threatened more than $74 billion annually in nutrition assistance and agricultural support programs.

At issue was a USDA directive requiring states to certify compliance with unspecified federal “policies” to receive funding. State officials contended the requirement was overly broad and could force compliance with executive orders related to immigration enforcement, diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) programs, transgender issues, and participation of transgender athletes in sports.

The lawsuit argued USDA lacked statutory authority to impose the new conditions and that the policy violated the Constitution’s Spending Clause by attaching requirements unrelated to the purpose of the federal funds. The states also maintained the department failed to follow required administrative procedures before implementing the changes.

Programs potentially affected by the policy included the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), school meal programs, and the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC), along with various farm and rural development programs.

The Trump administration defended the policy by arguing that states already must comply with federal anti-discrimination requirements to receive federal funding and that broader federal policy compliance should similarly apply.

The decision highlights the growing legal battle over executive authority and the administration’s use of federal funding as leverage to advance policy goals. For agriculture, the ruling provides short-term certainty that major USDA funding streams — including SNAP, WIC, and school nutrition programs — will continue flowing to states without the newly proposed certification requirements.

The case also underscores the political sensitivity surrounding USDA programs. While farm groups often focus on commodity, conservation, and crop insurance programs, nutrition assistance accounts for the majority of USDA spending. Any disruption to those funds would have significant implications for state budgets, food assistance recipients, schools, and agricultural demand.

The injunction is preliminary, meaning the underlying lawsuit will continue. Judge Joun said a detailed written opinion explaining his reasoning will be issued later. The outcome could ultimately help define the limits of executive branch authority to attach new policy conditions to congressionally appropriated agricultural and nutrition funding.

—U.S. crackdown on Mexican truck drivers tightens cross-border freight market

Visa revocations over cabotage violations raise costs, capacity concerns and trade friction

A growing U.S. enforcement campaign against cabotage violations has resulted in the revocation of visas for an estimated 3,200 Mexican truck drivers, creating new uncertainty for cross-border freight transportation at a time when North American supply chains are already facing mounting regulatory and trade pressures.

According to Mexico’s National Chamber of Freight Transportation (CANACAR), the visa cancellations stem from enhanced coordination between the U.S. Department of Transportation and U.S. Customs and Border Protection, allowing authorities to identify commercial drivers previously cited or warned for alleged cabotage violations. In many cases, drivers reportedly learned of the revocations only when attempting to cross the border.

Cabotage rules prohibit foreign carriers from transporting freight between two points within the United States. Mexican carriers are permitted to move international cargo into the U.S. and return with export loads, but they cannot legally perform domestic freight movements. U.S. regulators have long viewed cabotage enforcement as essential to maintaining a level playing field for domestic trucking companies, labor groups and owner-operators.

The recent crackdown appears to represent a significant escalation in enforcement. Industry groups report that authorities are not only examining current operations but are also reviewing alleged violations dating back several years. What may once have resulted in administrative warnings now carries immigration consequences, including visa revocation and potential future restrictions on U.S. entry.

The issue goes beyond individual drivers. Cross-border trucking is the backbone of North American trade under the USMCA framework, handling hundreds of billions of dollars in annual commerce between the United States and Mexico. Any reduction in available drivers could have ripple effects throughout supply chains serving agriculture, manufacturing, automotive production, retail goods and food distribution.

The impact may be especially pronounced at major gateways such as Laredo, Texas, which handles the largest share of U.S.-Mexico truck trade. Even modest disruptions in driver availability can create bottlenecks, increase transit times and raise transportation costs.

Industry organizations on both sides of the border are warning that the loss of thousands of qualified drivers could tighten capacity in an already constrained freight market. While Mexico continues to face its own driver shortages and may absorb some displaced operators into domestic service, replacing experienced cross-border drivers is not a quick process due to licensing, customs and security requirements.

Potential agricultural implications. For agriculture, the development deserves close attention. Mexico is America’s largest agricultural trading partner, and truck transportation plays a critical role in moving fresh produce, livestock products, feed ingredients, grain products, fertilizers and food products across the border.

Longer wait times or reduced trucking capacity could raise logistics costs for importers and exporters alike. Fresh produce shipments are particularly sensitive because delays can affect product quality and shelf life. Higher freight costs could eventually be reflected in consumer prices or lower margins for producers and processors.

The timing is also noteworthy as U.S.-Mexico agricultural trade is already navigating several areas of tension, including livestock movement restrictions related to New World screwworm concerns, ongoing tomato trade disputes and broader uncertainty surrounding the upcoming USMCA review process.

Enforcement reflects broader Trump administration priorities. The visa revocations fit within a broader trend of stricter border, immigration and transportation enforcement under the Trump administration. Federal agencies have increasingly emphasized compliance with customs, labor, transportation and immigration regulations as part of a wider effort to strengthen border security and domestic economic protections.

From Washington’s perspective, stricter cabotage enforcement protects U.S. trucking jobs and ensures foreign carriers do not gain an unfair competitive advantage by performing domestic freight movements. U.S. trucking groups have long argued that lax enforcement undermines rates and employment opportunities for American drivers.

Meanwhile, business groups warn that aggressive enforcement could create unintended economic consequences if driver shortages begin to impede cross-border commerce.

The key question is whether this represents a one-time cleanup of historical violations or the beginning of a sustained enforcement regime. If regulators continue to review past records and aggressively monitor current operations, carriers on both sides of the border may need to overhaul compliance procedures and documentation practices.

The development also comes as the United States, Mexico and Canada enter a period of heightened trade negotiations ahead of the USMCA review process. While cabotage enforcement is technically separate from trade policy, actions affecting freight mobility inevitably become part of broader discussions about North American economic integration.

For now, carriers are being reminded that cross-border trucking rules are receiving unprecedented scrutiny. The loss of more than 3,000 drivers sends a clear signal that U.S. authorities intend to enforce cabotage restrictions more aggressively, with potentially significant implications for freight costs, supply chains and U.S.-Mexico trade flows in the months ahead.

— NWS outlook: There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains, and Southern Plains on Saturday and over the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday… …There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains, and Southern Plains on Sunday… …There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains, and Middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday and over parts of the Northern High Plains, Ohio Valley, and Northeast on Sunday.