Two Months, Three Tracks: Congress Returns to an Unforgiving Ag Calendar

Farm aid | year-round E15 | Farm Bill 2.0 | FY 2027 appropriations | Fed chair Warsh testifies

Link: Weekend Updates, July 11: Ukraine’s Drone War Reaches Sea
          of Azov, Choking Corridor Carrying Quarter of Russia’s Wheat
Link: Farming’s Air Force: Drones Go from Novelty to Necessity in
         U.S. Agriculture

Link: Video: In the Ag Squawk PM July 10, Davis Michaelson was joined by Jim Wiesemeyer. They break down a market-moving USDA report and zoom out to the next yield milestones, weather risk, and the policy headlines that could steer farm prices for months.
Link: Audio: Ag Squawk PM, July 10

Note: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives podcast will be available Sunday afternoon, July 12

—With both chambers back July 13, lawmakers have roughly two working months before the Nov. 3 elections to move an $87.6 billion supplemental carrying $11.1 billion in farm aid, markup and advance Farm Bill 2.0, and salvage FY 2027 appropriations — or punt the pile to a lame duck.

—Washington’s quiet week is over. When the House and Senate gavel back on Monday, lawmakers will confront one of the most compressed and consequential legislative windows in recent memory for agriculture — and the shape of that window has changed in ways that matter since members scattered for the July Fourth recess. The math remains unforgiving: a five-week August adjournment begins around Aug. 7, October is effectively surrendered to the campaign trail, and the November midterms hang over every scheduling decision leadership makes. That leaves roughly four workweeks in July and the month of September — eight to nine legislative weeks in all — to move a war-and-farm-aid supplemental, complete or at least position a new farm bill, and make any meaningful progress on fiscal 2027 spending.

Anything left undone slides into a lame-duck session or, more likely for some items, into early 2027 under a Congress whose composition no one can yet predict.

—Supplemental: farm aid hitched to a war bill

The most immediate action item — and the one whose politics have shifted most — is the emergency supplemental President Trump sent to Capitol Hill June 24. What farm-state lawmakers spent the spring describing as a farm-aid vehicle arrived instead as an $87.6 billion package dominated by the Iran conflict: roughly $67 billion for the Pentagon to cover Operation Epic Fury’s costs, munitions replenishment and stockpile rebuilding, alongside $1.4 billion for the African Ebola response, $500 million for District of Columbia restoration and $1 billion for New York’s Penn Station.

Agriculture’s share is $11.1 billion — about 13 cents of every dollar. That includes $10 billion in temporary economic assistance for row crop and specialty crop producers covering the 2026 crop year and $1.1 billion in weather-related relief for Florida growers battered by last winter’s storms. The request also carries the administration’s explicit endorsement of codifying permanent, nationwide, year-round E15 — labeled an “urgent and needed policy change” — signaling the White House wants the ethanol fix attached to whatever vehicle moves.

The war wrapper cuts both ways. On one hand, a defense supplemental is the closest thing this Congress has to a must-pass bill, and hitching farm aid to it gives producers their best shot at money before November — USDA already has payment templates from prior bridge-assistance rounds, so dollars could move within weeks of a signature. On the other, the farm title is now hostage to a war-funding fight. Senate Appropriations Vice Chair Patty Murray (D-Wash.) has already served notice she will “not rubberstamp tens of billions more for this disastrous war of choice,” accusing the administration of using the emergency to bankroll “unrelated Pentagon priorities.” With a 60-vote threshold in the Senate, Democrats hold real leverage — and some members in both parties will treat any vote as a referendum on the Iran operation itself. Farm-state Democrats who badly want the economic assistance may find themselves squeezed between rural constituents and an antiwar base.

There is also a numbers gap worth watching. Senate Ag Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark.) and Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman John Hoeven (R-N.D.) spent the spring assembling an economic aid framework in the $15 billion to $17.3 billion range, and Boozman says the bridge payment details will be finalized “in the very near future.” The White House asked for $10 billion. Expect farm-state senators to try to build the number back up — and expect House Ag Chairman GT Thompson (R-Pa.) to keep pressing for a larger specialty crop tranche. With the American Farm Bureau Federation pegging accumulated farm losses above $50 billion over three crop years and input costs projected to climb another 2.2% to 3.3% into 2026-27, the pressure to deliver before the elections is intense. The supplemental remains the year’s best moving train; it just left the station carrying more freight and more enemies than farm groups had hoped.

—Farm Bill 2.0: markup window opens, then the hard part

The second track is the farm bill. The House passed its version in April — after leadership stripped the pesticide liability language that had stalled it, a concession hardliners like Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) have vowed to enforce in any conference. Boozman unveiled the Senate counterpart, the Agricultural Act of 2026, on June 23 and is aiming to mark it up in the window between the chamber’s July 13 return and the August adjournment.

The Senate draft is deliberately budget-neutral and largely mirrors the House-passed measure, building on the commodity-title enhancements enacted through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — which boosted farm-program spending by roughly $65 billion over a decade — while adding provisions that protect marketing assistance loans and loan deficiency payments from appropriations lapses, raise guaranteed operating loan limits to $3 million and direct operating loans to $750,000, create a specialty crop assistance framework, restates doubling market access program funding (already in legislation), stand up new forest and state conservation easement programs, and expand storage facility loans to cover propane and fertilizer infrastructure.

But the draft is defined as much by what it omits as what it contains. Year-round E15 is out on jurisdictional grounds. Federal pre-emption of California’s Proposition 12 is out on political ones. And Boozman has said flatly he has no plans to reopen OBBBA’s SNAP state cost-sharing provisions — the very provisions ranking member Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and committee Democrats have made their price of cooperation. That raises a genuine question about whether a bill that clears committee on party lines can find 60 votes on the floor. Even if the committee reports the bill this month, September floor time is a long shot, and most seasoned observers expect final passage — after a formal or informal conference — to slip past the midterms. Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall has framed the industry’s asks succinctly: economic aid, Prop 12 relief and year-round E15 remain the three priorities sitting outside the four corners of the draft, and Congress must find vehicles for all of them. The supplemental now offers a vehicle for two of the three. Prop 12 remains an orphan.

—FY 2027 appropriations: two chambers, two speeds

The third track is annual spending, and the chambers are badly out of sync. The House, pursuing regular order under Appropriations Chairman Tom Cole (R-Okla.), has already banked its agriculture bill: the FY 2027 Agriculture-FDA measure (HR 8646) cleared full committee 35-25 in late April and passed the House 213-210 on June 4, carrying a $26.27 billion discretionary allocation — about $380 million (1.4%) below FY 2026 — along with riders on foreign farmland ownership, gene editing, Packers and Stockyards enforcement and eliminated funding for the Rural Partners Network and climate initiatives.

The Senate is another story. Not one of the twelve subcommittees has marked up a bill. The planned full-committee markup of the Agriculture measure — grouped with Commerce-Justice-Science, Legislative Branch and Military Construction-VA as the “least controversial” quartet — was postponed twice in June after leadership failed to agree on topline 302(b) allocations, and the committee has now teed up a post-recess markup pairing the 302(b) allocations with the CJS and THUD bills. That sequencing tells you the toplines fight comes first; agriculture waits its turn.

The impasse frames September’s drama. With House bills running well above what Senate Democrats will accept and larded with policy riders they won’t swallow, completing all twelve bills before Oct. 1 is essentially off the table. A continuing resolution is the default path — and after last fall’s 43-day shutdown, neither party relishes a funding brinkmanship rerun five weeks before an election. For agriculture specifically, the stakes include contested cuts to research accounts, conservation technical assistance and rural development programs, plus the Packers and Stockyards rider fight that has drawn fire from livestock groups.

—Calendar is the story — and the triage is underway

Strip away the policy detail and the fundamental constraint is time, which forces a triage that is already visible. The 8-day/20-day asymmetry between the chambers is itself a tell: the House will do its eight days of business and toss everything across the Capitol, leaving the Senate three weeks alone in Washington — July 27 through Aug. 7 — to move the supplemental and markup the farm bill with no House partner in town. That means anything requiring both chambers’ signatures before the elections realistically has to be pre-cooked by July 23 or wait for the Sept. 14-Oct. 1 window when both bodies are finally back together.

The supplemental, with its presidential imprimatur, war-funding urgency and E15 language, is the likeliest vehicle to reach the president’s desk before November — provided the Iran politics don’t sink it, and provided farm-state members can keep the ag title intact as Democrats extract their price. The farm bill’s realistic ceiling before the midterms is a committee-reported Senate bill that stakes out conference positions; its fate more plausibly rests with a lame duck, where the election outcome will shape every negotiating posture. And the FY 2027 spending fight almost certainly extends into a CR, with the real endgame deferred to December or beyond.

Watch three tells in the next four weeks: whether Senate Appropriations actually holds its 302(b) markup or postpones a third time (a proxy for whether September is manageable or a train wreck); whether Boozman locks in a farm bill markup date before August (a proxy for whether Farm Bill 2.0 is a 2026 bill or a 2027 one); and how leadership packages the supplemental — clean and fast, or opened up to become the year’s Christmas tree. Layered over all of it: the USMCA joint review that formally opened July 1, with roughly $60 billion in annual ag exports to Mexico and Canada riding on the outcome, and Thompson’s newly introduced H-2A overhaul competing for the same scarce floor time.

Bottom line: For producers watching from the countryside amid a third straight year of punishing margins, the message from Washington is familiar: help is coming, but the clock — not the need — will dictate when. What’s new is the fine print: the help is now riding on a war bill, and the war bill’s politics belong to everyone.

— Congress returns as Fed, trade and agriculture take center stage

Warsh’s first congressional testimony, a Brazil tariff decision and major farm-group Hill visits will shape the July 13–17 agenda 

Congress returns Monday with the Senate resuming confirmation work and the House preparing the fiscal 2027 National Security and State appropriations bill. Agricultural groups will have a strong Washington presence throughout the week, led by Renewable Fuels Association Hill visits, American Soybean Association policy meetings and NCGA’s Corn Congress.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first semiannual monetary policy testimony before the House on Tuesday and the Senate on Wednesday, while several other Federal Reserve officials speak ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period. The Senate also begins moving toward debate on the fiscal 2027 defense authorization bill.

Trade policy reaches a key deadline Wednesday, when USTR is expected to announce its decision in the Section 301 investigation of Brazil, potentially imposing a 25% tariff on about $15 billion in Brazilian goods. Congressional hearings during the week will also focus on export controls, China supply-chain dependence, artificial intelligence, FDA innovation, the CFPB and economic security.

The week closes with a Senate Banking hearing on CFPB reforms, FERC’s monthly meeting and a House field hearing in New York on digital-asset regulation and the CLARITY Act.

Monday, July 13

• Congress returns: Senate convenes 3:00 pm ET (judicial confirmation vote ~5:30 pm); House Rules Committee meets 4:00 pm to tee up HR 8595, the FY27 National Security/State appropriations bill, for floor action this week.
• Ethanol: Renewable Fuels Association board meeting and Hill visits, Washington, July 13–15.
• Cattle: NCBA Cattle Industry Summer Business Meeting continues, Aurora, Colo. (July 12–14).
• Economics: NBER Summer Institute Week 1 opens, Cambridge, Mass. (July 13–17), with international trade and monetary economics workshops.
• Fertilizer: Southwestern Fertilizer Conference 100th anniversary meeting, New Orleans, July 12–16 (billed as the industry’s largest annual gathering).

Tuesday, July 14

• Monetary policy: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s debut semiannual Monetary Policy Report testimony, House Financial Services, 10:00 am. Several other Fed officials (Waller, Barr, Goolsbee, Cook, Bowman) speak during the day. Last week before the pre-FOMC blackout.
• Trade: AEI panel, “A Strategic Rethink: Congress Versus the President on US Trade Policy,” 10:00–11:30 am, Washington.
• Soybeans: American Soybean Association board and state-affiliate policy meetings, Washington, July 14–15, with Hill visits.
• Appropriations: House Appropriations FSGG subcommittee: Supreme Court budget hearing, 10:00 am; SBA oversight hearing, 2:00 pm.
• Export controls/trade: House Foreign Affairs: FY 2027 Bureau of Industry and Security budget and “the AI arms race,” 10:00 am; economic security zones hearing, 2:00 pm.
• Small business: House Small Business hearing, “AI on Main Street,” 10:00 am.
• Senate floor: Second Circuit confirmation vote at noon; cloture ripens on motion to proceed to the FY27 NDAA.
• NCGA’s 2026 Corn Congress: July 14–16 in Washington, D.C.

Wednesday, July 15

• Trade: USTR decision deadline in the Section 301 investigation of Brazil: potential 25% tariff on roughly 4,200 Brazilian products (~$15 billion), an investigation covering ethanol market access, digital trade, and IP.
• Monetary policy/economy: Warsh testifies before Senate Banking, 10:00 am. 
• FDA/food & drug: House Energy & Commerce Health subcommittee, “Maintaining America’s Leadership in Biomedical Innovation: FDA’s Role in Advancing U.S. Drug Development,” 10:15 am.
• Financial regulation: House Financial Services hearing on the CFPB semiannual report, 10:00 am.
• Supply chains/China:  House Foreign Affairs, “Ending Supply Chain Dependency,” 10:00 am; House Select Committee on the CCP, federal research security, 10:00 am.
• Transportation/nominations: Senate Commerce executive session (markup), 10:00 am — Surface Transportation Board, NTSB, and CPSC nominations plus aviation bills.

Thursday, July 16

• Financial regulation: Senate Banking hearing, “The CFPB Semi-Annual Report: A New Day at the CFPB Through Reform,” with Acting Director Russell Vought, 10:00 am.
• Energy: FERC monthly open meeting, 10:00 am. 

Friday, July 17

• Digital assets: House Financial Services digital-assets subcommittee field hearing on the CLARITY Act, Federal Hall, New York City, 10:00 am.
• Fertilizer: The Fertilizer Institute 4R Field Day, Ithaca, Neb. 

—Inflation, spending and housing take center stage

CPI, retail sales and industrial data will shape the economic outlook, while the Beige Book and major earnings add market signals 

The week opens Monday with the Treasury budget, offering a fresh look at federal finances. Tuesday brings the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and the closely watched Consumer Price Index, which could influence expectations for inflation and Federal Reserve policy.

Wednesday’s focus shifts to producer inflation, regional manufacturing and the Fed’s Beige Book, alongside earnings from Aker BP and United Airlines. Thursday is the busiest day, with jobless claims, retail sales, manufacturing surveys, business inventories and several housing indicators providing a broad reading on consumer demand and economic momentum.

Friday rounds out the week with housing starts, trade-price data, industrial production and consumer sentiment. Reliance Industries also reports earnings, adding an international corporate perspective to an otherwise U.S.-focused data calendar.

Mon., July 13

• Treasury Budget    

Tue., July 14

• NFIB Small Business Optimism Index | CPI   

Wed., July 15

• PPI-FD | Empire State Manufacturing | Beige Book | Earnings: Aker BP; United Airlines

Thur., July 16

• Jobless Claims | Retail Sales | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing | Business Inventories | Housing Market Index | Pending Home Sales Index

Fri., July 17

• Housing Starts   | Import & Export Prices | Industrial Production | Consumer Sentiment | Earnings: Reliance Industries

—Global crop and trade signals dominate agriculture calendar

Markets will focus on U.S. crop conditions, weather, Brazil’s production outlook, China’s import demand and fresh oilseed-crush and export data 

Monday opens with U.S. export inspections, crop progress and updated wheat and season-average price data, while Brazil’s Unica may release new sugarcane crush and sugar production figures. These reports will help gauge export demand, crop development and the pace of Brazil’s harvest and processing season.

Tuesday brings a broad slate of USDA outlook reports covering grains, oilseeds, cotton, livestock and meat prices. Brazil’s Conab production update for corn, soybeans and cotton and China’s initial June trade figures, including soybean and edible oil imports, will be particularly important for assessing global supply and demand. European grain and oilseed trade data will also be released, although French markets will be closed for a holiday.

Wednesday’s attention shifts to processing and production, led by the National Oilseed Processors Association’s monthly soybean crush report. USDA will also issue dairy, vegetable chemical-use, broiler hatchery and catfish reports, while France updates crop estimates and Malaysia reports palm oil exports for the first half of July.

Thursday features weekly U.S. export sales and livestock slaughter data, along with USDA outlooks for livestock, dairy, poultry and sugar. FranceAgriMer’s grains balance sheet and the International Grains Council’s market report will provide broader signals on world grain supplies, trade flows and price risks.

Friday closes the week with U.S. peanut prices, French crop-condition ratings, Australia’s Western Australian crop report and the CFTC’s weekly trader-positioning data. Fertilizer producer Yara’s earnings may also offer insight into global nutrient demand, pricing and farmer purchasing conditions.

Mon., July 13

• AMS. Export Inspections ERS: Season-Average Price Forecasts | Wheat Data NASS: Turkey Hatchery | Crop Progress
• Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)

Tue., July 14

• ERS: Meat Price Spreads | Cotton and Wool Outlook | Oil Crops Outlook | Feed Outlook | Wheat Outlook | Rice Outlook 
• EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Brazil’s Conab to release production data for corn, soybeans and cotton
• China’s first batch of June trade data, including soybean and edible oil imports

• Holiday: France

Wed., July 15

• ERS: Dairy Monthly Tables NASS: Agricultural Chemical Usage – Vegetables  | Broiler Hatchery | Catfish Production
• France agriculture ministry estimates for key crops
• National Oilseed Processors Association’s monthly crush report
• Malaysia July 1-15 palm oil exports

Thur., July 16

• FAS: Export Sales ERS: Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook | Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook NASS:  Slaughter Weekly 
• FranceAgriMer monthly grains balance sheet

• International Grains Council grain market report

Fri., July 17

• NASS: Peanut Prices
• FranceAgriMer weekly crop conditions data
• CFTC commitments of traders weekly report
• Grain Industry Association of Western Australia crop report
• Earnings: Yara

—Oil supply, inventories and minerals outlook drive energy week

OPEC and IEA reports, U.S. inventory data and key futures expirations will shape expectations for crude, fuels and natural gas 

Monday begins with OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report, which will update forecasts for global demand, supply and production. The OilChem LDPE conference in Suzhou, China, also opens and runs through Wednesday, offering insight into petrochemical demand and plastics markets.

Tuesday’s focus shifts to the American Petroleum Institute’s estimate of U.S. crude and refined-product inventories. Trading activity in parts of Europe may be lighter because of the French holiday.

Wednesday brings the Energy Information Administration’s closely watched Petroleum Status Report and weekly ethanol production data. Genscape’s Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp inventory estimates will provide another signal on European fuel supplies, while Turkish markets are closed for a holiday.

Thursday features the EIA’s natural gas storage report, Singapore’s weekly oil-product stockpile data and the International Energy Agency’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026. Expiration of August WTI options could add volatility to crude futures.

Friday closes the week with the Baker Hughes rig count and weekly trader-positioning reports for crude oil, Brent and gasoil. These reports will help markets assess producer activity and whether speculative positioning is reinforcing or challenging the prevailing price trend.

Mon., July 13

• OilChem LDPE conference, in Suzhou, China; runs through Wednesday | OPEC MOMR

Tue., July 14

• API US inventory report | Holiday: France

Wed., July 15

• EIA Petroleum Status Report | Weekly Ethanol Production | Genscape ARA inventories | Holiday: Turkey

Thur., July 16

• EIA Natural Gas Report | Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data | IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 | WTI August options expire

Fri., July 17

• Baker-Hughes Rig Count | ICE weekly Commitments of Tradersreport for Brent, gasoil | CFTC Commitments of Traders | Holiday: South Korea