U.S./China Trade Discussions in Beijing Around July 10 

A Prop 12 end-around in Senate has some lawmakers upset | Year-round E15 faces its toughest hurdle in the Senate | U.S. screwworm count rises as Rollins heads to Mexico

Link: Democratic Far Leftward Shift Creates New Midterm Political Test

Link: Trump Doubles Down on Iran Ag Sales Pledge at White House Dinner
Link: Trump Administration Ties Regenerative Farming to Expanding
         Biofuel Markets
Link: USDA Lowers 2026 Food Inflation Forecast, but Prices Keep Climbing
Link: Argentine Soy Strike Threat Adds Risk Premium to Soy Complex
Link: Rollins’ Mexico Visit Highlights Intensifying Binational Fight Against
          New World Screwworm
Link:  Supreme Court Backs Border ‘Metering’ Policy in Major Win for
           Trump’s Immigration Agenda

Link:   Supreme Court Shields Pesticide Makers from State
           Failure-to-Warn Claims

Link:Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, June 22 
Video show is now on You Tube,Spotify & Apple
Link:Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, June 22 

TOP STORIES

— China seeking price offers on soybeans, maybe corn: China is seeking new-crop U.S. soybean offers as both sides prepare for July trade talks that could trigger additional purchases and tariff reductions.

— Year-round E15 faces toughest Senate test: Disputes over small refinery exemptions and biodiesel impacts will determine whether permanent summer E15 sales can clear the Senate.

— U.S., Uzbekistan accelerate trade agreement talks: A proposed bilateral trade pact could expand export opportunities for U.S. agriculture and diversify overseas markets.

— Supreme Court rulings favor Trump administration and business: Decisions on Roundup litigation, immigration and other cases strengthen federal authority and reduce legal uncertainty for agriculture.

— Regenerative agriculture order advances 45Z framework: USDA finalized key feedstock standards and carbon tools, moving implementation of the clean fuel tax credit closer to reality.

— RFA defends EPA renewable fuel mandates: Biofuel advocates say record blending requirements support ethanol investment, rural economies and long-term corn demand.

— U.S. screwworm cases increase as Rollins visits Mexico: Rising Texas detections add urgency to expanding sterile-fly production and strengthening the U.S.-Mexico containment strategy.

STRAIT OF HORMUZ

— Crude continues flowing through Hormuz despite vessel attack: Oil shipments remain uninterrupted despite another maritime attack, limiting the geopolitical risk premium.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today: Global technology weakness is weighing on U.S. futures ahead of key economic reports and Fed commentary.

— Equities yesterday: Stocks finished mixed as investors rotated out of technology and into defensive sectors.

AG MARKETS

— Overnight grain markets weaken on harvest and weather pressure: Wheat leads declines while traders await next week’s USDA acreage and grain stocks reports.

— European heat wave threatens corn production: Deteriorating crop conditions are increasing expectations for larger EU corn imports later this year.

— International grain markets ease: Harvest pressure and aggressive Black Sea competition continue to outweigh growing European weather concerns.

— Cotton adjusted world price moves higher: USDA raised the cotton Adjusted World Price for the week.

— U.S. hog inventory slips slightly: A smaller breeding herd is offset by record litter sizes, pointing to gradual herd contraction.

— Ag markets rebound Thursday: Short covering, bargain buying and positioning ahead of USDA reports lifted most grain and livestock futures.

FARM POLICY

— Proposition 12 speculation complicates Senate farm bill: Rumors of a conference committee strategy are creating new uncertainty over Senate support.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Oil falls as Hormuz shipping recovers: Expanding Gulf exports and improved tanker traffic continue to pressure crude prices lower.

U.S./CANADA RELATIONS

— Bridge dispute adds pressure to U.S.-Canada talks: Delayed opening of the Gordie Howe Bridge highlights the administration’s willingness to revisit prior agreements.

LABOR & IMMIGRATION POLICY

— Farm Bureau renews push for agricultural labor reform: The organization will spotlight workforce shortages and advocate for modernization of the H-2A program.

WEATHER

— National Weather Service warns of storms, heat and fire danger: Heavy rain, severe weather and expanding heat remain the dominant U.S. weather threats.

— Heavy rains reshape crop outlook: Flooding delays wheat harvest while improving soil moisture ahead of hotter weather across the Corn Belt.
 

—Crude continues flowing through Hormuz despite latest vessel attack

The incident raises security concerns, but markets remain focused on whether oil exports are actually being disrupted 

The latest attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz has heightened tensions in one of the world’s most strategically important shipping lanes, but it has not stopped crude oil from moving through the waterway. That distinction is proving critical for energy markets, which have become increasingly focused on actual supply disruptions rather than geopolitical headlines alone.

The incident involved the Singapore-flagged container ship Ever Lovely, operated by Taiwan’s Evergreen Marine. According to the company and maritime authorities, the vessel was struck near Oman by what was initially described as an “unknown object” that damaged bridge windows on the starboard side. The crew was unharmed, the cargo remained secure, and the vessel continued its voyage after safely exiting the Strait of Hormuz. Maritime security officials believe the ship was most likely struck by a one-way attack drone.

Whether the attack was intentional has become the central question. While no group has formally claimed responsibility, U.S. officials and several intelligence assessments cited by major news organizations conclude the vessel was deliberately targeted by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The strike came only hours after Tehran warned commercial ships not to use navigation routes that had not been approved by Iranian authorities, making the timing difficult to dismiss as coincidental. The vessel reportedly was traveling along a United Nations-backed maritime corridor established to facilitate safer commercial transit.

Iran, however, has stopped short of publicly acknowledging responsibility. Instead, Iranian officials have argued that vessels operating outside routes coordinated with Tehran cannot be guaranteed safe passage. That position allows Iran to pressure commercial shipping without explicitly admitting it is attacking civilian vessels, while also reinforcing its longstanding claim that, as the principal coastal state bordering the strait, it should have a central role in regulating maritime traffic.

Despite the attack, oil exports continue to move. Reuters ship-tracking data show several very large crude carriers have continued entering the Persian Gulf to load cargoes, including vessels carrying Iranian crude. Traffic has slowed noticeably as shipowners reassess risks, but it has not collapsed. Daily tanker transits remain below normal levels, yet enough vessels continue operating to prevent a significant interruption in global oil supplies.

That explains why crude prices have remained relatively subdued. Earlier in the conflict, markets quickly priced in the possibility of a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Today, traders appear to be distinguishing between isolated attacks — which increase insurance costs, freight rates and voyage risk — and an actual shutdown that would remove millions of barrels of oil from world markets. If exports continue, the geopolitical risk premium is likely to remain limited.

For agriculture, that distinction is equally important. Continued crude flows help contain diesel prices, fertilizer production costs and ocean freight expenses that directly affect U.S. farm profitability and export competitiveness. A sustained interruption of Hormuz traffic would ripple through virtually every agricultural input and transportation market, but the latest incident has not yet reached that threshold.

Of note: The strike came as Iran is pushing to make billions of dollars from the strait as the regime positions itself to manage the global oil artery. The Wall Street Journal reports that Tehran is pitching the idea to the wider Middle East and as far afield as Beijing, according to Iranian officials. It wants its Persian Gulf neighbors to be part of the agreement and share the revenue. The Islamic Republic estimates that charging for security, safety and environmental services in the strait would bring in $40 billion a year in revenue for states involved, according to officials familiar with the matter. “Everyone needs to know that management of the (Strait of Hormuz) will never return to the way it was before,” said Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s chief negotiator. U.S. officials say Iranian officials say something for Iranians and other things in meetings with U.S. negotiators.

The broader concern is that the attack could establish a precedent. If commercial vessels begin facing repeated drone or missile strikes, shipping companies may decide the risks outweigh the rewards, even if the strait technically remains open. At that point, reduced tanker availability — not an official closure — could become the mechanism that constrains oil supplies. For now, however, the evidence suggests the attack was a deliberate act of intimidation rather than the start of a successful blockade, and the continued movement of crude remains the dominant factor shaping market sentiment.

—Equities today: U.S. equity futures are pointing lower Friday, with technology stocks once again leading the decline as investors continue to reassess valuations across the artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors. The weakness follows another sharp overnight selloff in Asian chipmakers, suggesting concerns about the pace of AI infrastructure spending remain a global theme rather than simply a U.S. market issue.

The biggest overseas development came from South Korea, where the benchmark KOSPI index fell nearly 6%, driven by steep losses in memory-chip giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Those companies have been among the biggest beneficiaries of the AI investment boom, making them particularly vulnerable as investors question whether the current pace of data center construction and AI capital spending can be sustained.

Reports that OpenAI could delay plans for an initial public offering also added to the cautious tone. While an IPO timing change would have little direct impact on corporate earnings, it reinforces a broader narrative that investors are becoming more selective about AI-related investments after an extended rally.

Beyond technology, today’s economic calendar could influence trading. The advance U.S. trade balance will provide another look at whether tariff policies and import patterns are beginning to affect the nation’s goods deficit. A narrower-than-expected deficit could modestly support second-quarter GDP estimates, while a wider reading could weigh on growth expectations.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also receive close scrutiny. Markets are looking for a reading near 50.0. Stable or improving consumer confidence would reinforce the view that household spending remains resilient despite higher prices and elevated interest rates. A weaker-than-expected report, however, could amplify concerns that economic momentum is slowing alongside the recent weakness in equities.

Wholesale inventories are another key release because they feed directly into GDP calculations. Economists expect a modest 0.3% increase. A significantly larger inventory build could reflect slowing demand, while a smaller increase could point to leaner supply chains and stronger underlying sales.

Federal Reserve Governor Neel Kashkari’s remarks at 11:30 a.m. ET also warrant attention. Investors will be listening for any comments regarding inflation progress, labor market conditions and the outlook for future interest-rate policy. Although Kashkari is not typically viewed as a policy bellwether, markets remain highly sensitive to any indication that Fed officials are becoming more or less comfortable with the inflation outlook.

Overall, today’s session appears set to revolve around three questions: whether the AI-driven technology correction has further to run, whether incoming economic data continue to support expectations for a soft economic landing, and whether Fed officials provide any new insight into the path of monetary policy. Until investors gain greater confidence on those fronts, volatility in technology shares is likely to remain the dominant driver of overall market direction.

In Asia, Japan -4.2%. Hong Kong -1.8%. China -2.3%. India closed.
 

In Europe, at midday, London -0.8%. Paris -0.6%. Frankfurt -1.3%.

—Equities yesterday: U.S. stocks finished mixed Thursday as investors continued rotating out of high-growth technology shares and into more defensive blue-chip names ahead of closely watched inflation data and next week’s quarter-end portfolio repositioning.

The Dow rose 71.72 points, or 0.14%, to close at 51,920.62, extending its run of record highs. The gains reflected continued buying in industrial, financial and healthcare stocks, sectors viewed as relatively attractive after the market’s powerful technology-led advance during the first half of the year.

The S&P 500 was essentially unchanged, slipping just 0.73 points, or 0.01%, to 7,357.49, illustrating the market’s lack of broad direction. While gains in economically sensitive and defensive sectors offset much of the weakness in technology, the benchmark index lacked enough momentum to extend its recent rally.

The Nasdaq underperformed, falling 118.03 points, or 0.46%, to 25,358.60 as investors took profits in several large-cap technology and artificial intelligence names following weeks of outsized gains. The pullback came despite continued optimism surrounding AI investment and semiconductor demand, suggesting investors were locking in profits rather than fundamentally changing their outlook for the sector.

Thursday’s mixed performance followed strong earnings and upbeat guidance from major semiconductor companies earlier in the week that had helped fuel the AI trade. However, with many technology stocks trading at historically rich valuations, investors appeared willing to rotate capital into sectors that have lagged the broader market.

Market participants also remained cautious ahead of additional inflation and economic data that could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy later this year. While recent inflation reports have generally reinforced expectations for eventual interest-rate cuts, investors continue to watch for signs that price pressures are moderating sufficiently to give policymakers greater confidence.

For agricultural markets, the relatively stable performance in equities and continued investor confidence in the broader economy remain constructive for commodity demand. However, the technology-led pause underscores that financial markets are becoming more selective after a strong first-half rally, with investors increasingly rewarding earnings quality and valuation discipline rather than simply chasing momentum.

The divergence between the Dow and Nasdaq also reflects a broader shift toward portfolio diversification as institutional investors prepare for the second half of 2026, balancing enthusiasm for AI-related growth with exposure to more cyclical and value-oriented sectors that could benefit if economic growth remains resilient.

—Overnight grain markets weaken as weather and harvest pressure build

Wheat leads declines while soy complex eases ahead of key USDA reports

Overnight grain futures traded broadly lower, with wheat posting the sharpest losses as improving harvest conditions in parts of the U.S. Plains and Black Sea export competition continued to weigh on prices. Corn and soybean futures also moved lower as traders adjusted positions ahead of next week’s USDA planted acreage and quarterly grain stocks reports while continuing to monitor weather developments across North America and Europe.

July corn futures fell 2¼ cents to $4.12½ per bushel. Corn has surrendered some of Thursday’s gains as the market balances generally favorable U.S. crop conditions against mounting concerns over heat and dryness in portions of Europe. While recent forecasts continue to call for periodic rainfall across much of the central Corn Belt, traders remain focused on whether northwestern Iowa, Nebraska and parts of the western Midwest receive enough moisture as temperatures trend above normal into early July. With the U.S. crop entering a critical growth phase, weather will remain the dominant driver after next week’s USDA reports.

July soybeans declined 6¾ cents to $11.20¾, while July soybean meal dropped $3.80 to $304.40 per short ton. July soybean oil fell 0.65 cent to 70.16 cents per pound. The soybean complex is giving back part of Thursday’s strong advance as traders await confirmation of additional Chinese buying interest after reports Beijing recently sought U.S. soybean price quotations. Market participants are also watching developments in Argentina, where labor tensions at oilseed processing facilities could disrupt soybean meal and soybean oil exports if strike threats materialize next week. Even so, expectations for adequate U.S. crop development are limiting fresh buying interest.

Wheat futures again led the downside, with July Chicago soft red winter wheat falling 11½ cents to $5.79½ and July Kansas City hard red winter wheat losing 11¼ cents to $6.09¼. Harvest pressure continues to build across the southern Plains as weather disruptions ease, while competitively priced Russian wheat continues to dominate export business. Recent rainfall across Kansas may slow harvest in localized areas, but it is also expected to improve soil moisture ahead of planting for next season. Meanwhile, deteriorating crop conditions across France and other parts of Europe remain a longer-term supportive factor, suggesting global wheat supplies outside the Black Sea region could tighten later this year.

Overall, grain markets remain caught between near-term seasonal pressure and longer-term production uncertainty. Favorable U.S. weather forecasts, active harvest progress and aggressive Black Sea competition are weighing on prices today, but growing crop stress across Europe, the potential for increased Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans, and next week’s major USDA reports could quickly shift market sentiment.

—European heat wave raises new concerns for corn supply

French crop conditions deteriorate rapidly as drought expands across Europe

An intense and persistent heat wave across Western Europe is becoming a growing concern for global grain markets after French corn conditions suffered one of their sharpest weekly declines of the season.

France’s good-to-excellent corn rating dropped 9 percentage points to 76%, the weakest rating for this point in the growing season since 2018, highlighting how quickly crops can deteriorate when high temperatures coincide with limited soil moisture. While 76% still reflects a crop with considerable production potential, the pace of the decline suggests yield risks are mounting if rainfall does not arrive soon.

French wheat has also begun to show signs of stress, with good-to-excellent ratings slipping to 74% from 76% a week earlier. Even so, the wheat crop remains in better condition than last year, when ratings stood at 68%, indicating that wheat production losses may be more limited than those expected for corn. Wheat in France is generally further advanced in development and therefore less vulnerable to the current heat than corn, which is entering one of its most yield-sensitive growth stages.

Perhaps the most market-sensitive development is the French agriculture ministry’s indication that 2026 corn production could fall roughly 30% from last year. That estimate reflects both a reduction in planted acreage and deteriorating crop prospects from drought. Importantly, many analysts believe even that projection assumes weather conditions stabilize during July. Current medium-range forecasts suggest that assumption may prove optimistic, with continued above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall expected across much of France and neighboring Spain.

The concern extends well beyond France. Forecast models increasingly point toward another expansion of extreme heat into Central and Eastern Europe, including Germany, Poland, Hungary, Romania and Ukraine. Those countries collectively represent a substantial share of European corn production, meaning additional weather deterioration could significantly tighten overall EU feed grain supplies.

For world grain markets, the implications extend beyond Europe. The European Union is already one of the world’s largest corn importers in years of reduced domestic production. Should weather continue to deteriorate, import demand would likely increase further, benefiting exporters such as Argentina and potentially the United States, particularly during the latter part of the marketing year when U.S. export availability becomes more competitive. Larger EU purchases could provide additional support for U.S. corn export demand at a time when traders are closely monitoring prospects for a large North American harvest.

The European weather situation also comes as global feed grain supplies face several competing uncertainties, including Black Sea weather risks and South American export logistics. While it remains too early to quantify ultimate production losses, the rapid decline in French crop ratings serves as an early warning that Europe’s production outlook is becoming increasingly weather dependent. Unless meaningful rainfall develops over the next two to three weeks, analysts are likely to continue trimming EU corn production estimates while raising import forecasts, a combination that could provide an increasingly supportive backdrop for global corn prices later this summer.

—International grain markets weaken as weather and harvest pressure build

European wheat and corn retreat while Russian offers hold steady

International grain markets were mostly lower on June 26 as favorable Northern Hemisphere harvest progress and continued pressure from improving Black Sea export availability outweighed mounting concerns over heat stress in parts of Western Europe. While the longer-term weather outlook remains supportive for weather-risk premiums, traders continue to focus on expanding harvest supplies and stiff export competition.

Paris September milling wheat futures fell €2.50 to €203.50 per metric ton, equivalent to roughly $236 per metric ton (about $6.42 per bushel using current exchange rates). That remains competitive with U.S. and Black Sea export values, although the decline reflects ongoing harvest pressure and expectations that French production will recover from last year’s weather-damaged crop despite recent heat and dryness.

Paris August corn futures slipped €0.50 to €227.50 per metric ton, equivalent to approximately $264 per metric ton or about $6.70 per bushel. Despite the modest decline, European corn continues to trade at a premium to U.S. Gulf values because of concerns that the current heat wave across France and portions of Central Europe could trim yield potential if meaningful rainfall does not develop during pollination. Those weather concerns are preventing a more pronounced selloff even as futures softened Friday.

Russian July FOB wheat offers were unchanged at $232 per metric ton (roughly $6.31 per bushel), underscoring Russia’s continued role as the world’s lowest-cost major wheat exporter. Stable Black Sea offers continue to cap rallies in both European and U.S. wheat despite weather concerns in portions of the EU and Plains. As Russian harvest activity accelerates, buyers continue to view Black Sea wheat as the benchmark against which other export origins must compete.

Malaysian August palm oil futures rose 4 ringgit to 4,539 ringgit per metric ton, equivalent to approximately US$1,070 per metric ton. The modest gain provided underlying support for competing vegetable oils, including soybean oil, although the move was relatively subdued as traders balanced firm energy prices against expectations for seasonally increasing Southeast Asian palm oil production.

Overall, international grain markets remain caught between two competing forces. In the near term, expanding wheat harvests in the Northern Hemisphere and aggressive Black Sea export pricing continue to pressure values. However, persistent heat across portions of Western and Central Europe, along with forecasts calling for limited precipitation into early July, leaves the market vulnerable to renewed weather-driven buying should crop conditions deteriorate further. That combination suggests wheat and corn prices are likely to remain volatile as traders balance abundant near-term supplies against increasing production risks for late-developing crops.

—Cotton AWP moves higher. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton is at 63.88 cents per pound, effective today (June 26), up from 62.37 cents per pound the prior week.

—U.S. hog inventory slips slightly as breeding herd continues to shrink

Breeding herd shrinks further as litter sizes hit a March-May record

The U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs totaled 73.7 million head on June 1, 2026, down slightly from a year earlier and down slightly from March 1, 2026, according to the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report released Thursday afternoon by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

Breeding herd. Of the 73.7 million head on farms, 67.8 million were market hogs and 5.88 million were kept for breeding. The breeding inventory was down 1% from last year and down slightly from the previous quarter, while market hog inventory was up slightly from a year earlier but down slightly from the March count. The mix suggests a swine herd holding roughly steady in total even as producers continue to trim sow numbers at the margins.

Pig crop and litter size. Producers weaned 33.5 million pigs between March and May, up slightly from the same period in 2025, even though sows farrowing during the quarter fell 1% to 2.82 million head. The gain came entirely from productivity: the average litter size of 11.87 pigs per sow set a record for the March-May period, up from 11.75 a year earlier, extending a run of litter-size records NASS has logged in recent quarters as genetics and management continue to outpace any decline in sow numbers.

Farrowing intentions. Producers told NASS they intend to farrow 2.90 million sows during June-August, down 2% from actual farrowings in the same period last year, and 2.89 million sows during September-November, down 1 percent from a year earlier. Both figures point to a breeding herd that is contracting gradually rather than expanding, consistent with the modest year-over-year declines already evident in the breeding inventory.

State breakdown. Iowa remained the largest hog state by a wide margin, with a June 1 inventory of 24.7 million head, followed by Minnesota at 9.30 million head and North Carolina at 7.20 million head. North Carolina’s herd was down from 7.60 million head a year earlier, a steeper year-over-year decline than the national average and one of the more notable state-level moves in the report.

Market reaction. August lean hog futures fell $0.10 to $96.60, nearer the daily high on Thursday, down roughly 17% from a year earlier on CME data, and trade was mixed on spread positioning as traders squared up ahead of Thursday’s release. The numbers offer a mixed signal for the board: the year-over-year decline in breeding stock and the below-year-ago farrowing intentions for both the summer and fall quarters are the kind of incremental tightening that has historically supported deferred contracts, but a record-setting pig crop and a market hog inventory running slightly above last year argue against any sharp near-term rally. Traders are likely to treat this report as confirmation of the slow, grinding herd contraction already underway in 2026 rather than a fresh catalyst, with the more market-moving detail being the softer farrowing intentions that will shape hog supply expectations heading into 2027.

Survey methodology. NASS based the report on a survey of 4,254 U.S. hog and pig producers, with roughly 2,700 operations responding during the first half of June. Producers reported data through electronic reporting, mail, telephone and face-to-face interviews, with all responses referenced to inventories as of June 1, 2026.

—Ag markets Thur., June 25: grains and livestock rebound ahead of key USDA reports

Short covering, bargain buying and positioning drive broad ag market gains

Agricultural futures finished mostly higher on June 25 as traders shifted from an early defensive posture to broad-based buying ahead of next week’s closely watched USDA planted acreage and quarterly grain stocks reports. A weaker U.S. dollar added support across much of the commodity complex, while short covering and bargain hunting helped lift markets that had recently fallen to multi-month or contract lows.

Corn staged one of the day’s most impressive reversals. December futures settled 8 1/4 cents higher at $4.43 after falling to a new contract low early in the session. The recovery reflected aggressive short covering by speculative traders as well as value buying from commercial participants who viewed prices below $4.40 as attractive ahead of Tuesday’s USDA reports. Market attention is increasingly focused on acreage expectations, with many analysts anticipating soybean plantings increased at the expense of corn because of superior spring profitability. Even so, weather remains largely favorable across much of the Corn Belt, limiting enthusiasm for a sustained weather-driven rally.

Soybeans led the grain complex higher as November futures climbed 22 cents to $11.57, while September soybean meal gained $4.60 and soybean oil advanced 131 points. The rally was fueled by a combination of short covering, end-of-quarter position evening and bargain buying after recent weakness. Additional support came from reports that China is seeking bids for U.S. soybeans for September-forward shipment, reinforcing expectations that Beijing intends to continue meeting its commitment to purchase significant volumes of U.S. soybeans under the latest bilateral trade understandings. Traders also monitored reports that workers at Argentina’s major soybean crushing and export facilities could begin strike action next week over wage negotiations. While labor disruptions in Argentina have historically been relatively short-lived, even a brief interruption in the world’s largest soybean meal and soybean oil export hub could temporarily shift export demand toward the United States and Brazil, helping underpin soybean product prices. Even with those supportive developments, traders remain cautious until USDA provides updated acreage estimates and grain stocks data next Tuesday.

Wheat futures also recovered from early weakness. December Chicago soft red winter wheat gained 5 1/2 cents, while Kansas City hard red winter wheat added 5 cents after posting a nine-week low earlier in the day. The strength largely reflected spillover buying from corn and soybeans together with technical short covering following several sessions of selling pressure. Minneapolis spring wheat remained the weakest segment, slipping modestly as favorable northern Plains crop conditions continue to weigh on production prospects.

Cotton futures posted a corrective rebound, with December cotton advancing 71 points to 76.97 cents. The weaker dollar improved U.S. export competitiveness, while firmer crude oil prices lent support to fiber markets. Even so, traders remain cautious given uncertain global textile demand and the prospect of another sizable U.S. crop.

Livestock markets remained firm, led by live cattle. August live cattle futures gained 70 cents while feeder cattle ended only modestly higher after reaching a six-week high during the session. Underlying support continues to come from historically tight cattle supplies and concerns that detections of New World screwworm in Texas could further disrupt cattle movement and beef supplies if additional restrictions become necessary. Cash cattle and boxed beef values remain supportive of the broader bullish fundamental outlook.

Lean hog futures eased slightly, with August contracts slipping 10 cents in what appeared to be routine profit-taking after recent gains. Despite Thursday’s minor setback, the market remains technically improved, and another strong close could reinforce the view that hog futures have established a seasonal bottom.

The broader market tone suggests traders are becoming increasingly reluctant to add new short positions immediately ahead of Tuesday’s USDA data. Acreage revisions, quarterly grain inventories and updated demand expectations could significantly reshape price direction entering July. Until then, much of Thursday’s action reflected risk management rather than a meaningful shift in underlying supply-and-demand fundamentals. The sharp recovery from early lows nevertheless signals that value-oriented buyers are becoming more active as new-crop grain prices approach levels that could discourage additional producer selling.

—Proposition 12 speculation clouds Senate farm bill path

Rumored House-Senate strategy raises doubts about floor support

As the Senate Ag Committee moves closer to advancing its version of a long-awaited farm bill, a growing undercurrent of concern is emerging among lawmakers over an issue that is not even included in the committee draft: Proposition 12. Several senators believe Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark.) has reached at least an informal understanding with House Agriculture Committee Chairman GT Thompson (R-Pa.) to address Proposition 12 during a House-Senate conference committee rather than in the Senate bill itself. Whether that perception is accurate may prove less important than the political consequences it is already creating.

The House-passed farm bill includes language designed to limit the reach of California’s Proposition 12, the voter-approved animal housing law that has reshaped pork production and interstate commerce. That provision has long been a top priority for many livestock organizations and producers who argue the California law effectively imposes one state’s production standards on farmers across the country. However, it remains one of the most divisive issues in agricultural policy, drawing strong opposition from animal welfare groups and several senators representing states where Proposition 12 enjoys political support.

The Senate committee draft deliberately leaves the issue untouched, allowing Boozman to avoid a fight that could fracture the bipartisan coalition needed to move the legislation through committee. But several senators privately question whether the omission is simply tactical. They believe the strategy is to secure Senate passage first and then negotiate Proposition 12 language behind closed doors during conference with the House, where Thompson has consistently argued the issue must be resolved in a final farm bill.

That belief is creating unease among senators who might otherwise support the legislation. For some lawmakers, a vote for the Senate bill could become, in their view, a vote to keep Proposition 12 alive for later negotiations. Even if no formal agreement exists between the two chairmen, the suspicion alone could influence voting decisions.

The political arithmetic is particularly delicate because the Senate cannot afford to lose many supporters if the measure reaches the floor. Senators opposed to reopening the Proposition 12 debate may decide that defeating the bill outright is preferable to allowing it to advance into a conference where compromises become far more difficult to stop. Conversely, livestock-state senators who strongly support overturning Proposition 12 may ultimately view conference negotiations as their best opportunity to secure policy changes unavailable through the Senate drafting process.

Boozman faces the difficult task of reassuring both camps without undermining future negotiating flexibility. Publicly committing that Proposition 12 will never be considered in conference could weaken the Senate’s bargaining position with the House. Yet declining to provide assurances risks reinforcing suspicions that a side agreement already exists.

For Thompson, maintaining Proposition 12 language in the House bill strengthens his leverage in any eventual negotiations. House leaders have repeatedly argued that livestock producers need national standards to prevent individual states from dictating production practices beyond their borders. That position enjoys strong backing from many pork and cattle groups but remains politically toxic for several Senate Democrats and some Republicans.

The broader lesson is that conference committees often become the venue where the most contentious agricultural policy disputes are resolved. Experienced lawmakers understand that provisions omitted from one chamber’s bill are not necessarily dead. That reality explains why rumors surrounding Proposition 12 have gained traction even before the Senate has completed its own work.

Whether the speculation reflects an actual understanding between Boozman and Thompson or simply Capitol Hill rumor, it has become a political factor in its own right. If enough senators conclude that Proposition 12 is destined to reappear in conference, that perception alone could complicate efforts to assemble the bipartisan coalition needed to pass the Senate bill. In that sense, the controversy surrounding legislation that is not currently in the Senate draft may ultimately become one of the biggest obstacles to getting the bill to conference in the first place.

—Friday: Oil slides as Hormuz traffic rebounds and Gulf exports recover

Expanded shipping and rising OPEC output ease geopolitical risk premium

WTI Crude oil prices fell nearly 4% Friday to around $69 per barrel, the lowest level since late February, as traders continued to remove the geopolitical risk premium that had been built into the market during the recent conflict involving Iran. The sharp decline reflected growing confidence that energy supplies from the Persian Gulf will continue to move despite lingering security concerns. Brent crude oil also declined around 4% to just over $72 per barrel. 

A key driver has been the rapid recovery in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, where vessel traffic has accelerated following progress toward a U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Export flows have reportedly recovered to roughly 75% of pre-conflict levels, reducing fears of a prolonged disruption to one of the world’s most important oil transit chokepoints. An important milestone came as Saudi Arabia resumed loading crude tankers at its Ras Tanura export terminal, signaling that the kingdom is prepared to restore exports and potentially increase production.

The market briefly rebounded Thursday after the container ship Ever Lovely was struck by a projectile southeast of Oman, renewing concerns over maritime security. However, the incident did not disrupt commercial shipping, and President Donald Trump said the Strait of Hormuz remains open and vessel traffic has continued. The absence of any sustained interruption reinforced the view that the attack was an isolated event rather than the start of a broader campaign against commercial shipping.

Meanwhile, several major Gulf producers are increasing exports. The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar are moving additional crude into world markets, although tanker availability has become a logistical constraint. Iraq is also pressing for a higher OPEC production quota to recover export revenues lost during the conflict, adding to expectations that more barrels could reach the market in the months ahead.

The combination of improving supply, uninterrupted shipping and easing geopolitical tensions has shifted market attention back to underlying fundamentals, including ample global inventories and uncertain demand growth. With crude on track for roughly a 10% weekly decline—its steepest drop in about a month—the market is signaling that the immediate threat of a major supply shock has diminished, even as traders continue to monitor developments in the Persian Gulf for any renewed security risks.

—Bridge dispute becomes another front in U.S./Canada negotiations

Delayed opening underscores Trump’s willingness to revisit past deals

A Bloomberg report (link) that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick delayed the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge while seeking a larger U.S. share of future toll revenue appears to fit the broader negotiating strategy the Trump administration has employed across trade and infrastructure issues, although some of the article’s most detailed claims remain based on unnamed sources.

The most significant point in ˆreporting — that the United States requested postponing the bridge’s opening — is no longer in serious dispute. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney publicly acknowledged earlier this month that Canada agreed to delay the opening at Washington’s request while both governments worked through unresolved issues. Likewise, the White House has publicly confirmed that Lutnick has taken the lead in the negotiations, lending credibility to Bloomberg’s central premise.

Where Bloomberg advances the story is its reporting that Lutnick is pressing Canada to renegotiate the existing toll-sharing arrangement. According to the article, the administration wants a greater share of future toll revenue than provided under the current agreement. The Commerce Department has not confirmed that specific objective, but neither has it denied it, saying only that Lutnick is committed to securing “the best possible deal for America.”

That position would be consistent with President Donald Trump’s longstanding criticism of the bridge agreement. Trump argued earlier this year that Canada received too favorable a financial arrangement after paying the bridge’s construction costs while retaining toll revenues until those costs are recovered. He has repeatedly suggested that the United States deserves greater compensation because the bridge’s economic value ultimately depends on access to the American market.

From a negotiating standpoint, the bridge has become much more than an infrastructure project. The administration increasingly views individual economic agreements as leverage within broader trade negotiations, much as it has approached tariffs, investment agreements and market-access discussions with several trading partners. Rather than accepting previous agreements as fixed, the White House has demonstrated a willingness to reopen negotiations whenever it believes additional concessions can be obtained.

Whether that strategy succeeds is another question. Canada financed the C$6.4 billion (approximately $4.5 billion) project largely because earlier efforts involving both governments repeatedly stalled. The current ownership and toll arrangements were negotiated years ago to make construction possible. Reopening those terms after construction has been completed could create concerns among future infrastructure partners about whether negotiated agreements remain durable after political leadership changes.

For agriculture and other industries, the timing is significant. The Detroit/Windsor crossing is one of North America’s most important commercial gateways, handling large volumes of agricultural commodities, food products, livestock, fertilizer, automotive parts and manufactured goods. The new bridge is expected to improve freight efficiency and reduce congestion once it opens. A prolonged delay therefore carries economic costs beyond the political dispute over toll revenues.

The bridge negotiations also arrive amid broader uncertainty in the U.S./Canada relationship. The Trump administration is reviewing the future of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement while continuing discussions over tariffs, market access and other bilateral trade issues. That broader backdrop makes it difficult to separate the bridge dispute from the larger economic negotiations underway between the two governments.

One portion of Bloomberg’s article deserves careful treatment. The story notes that the owners of the competing Ambassador Bridge recently made a significant contribution to a Trump-aligned political organization. While that contribution has been publicly reported, no evidence has emerged showing it influenced the administration’s handling of the Gordie Howe Bridge negotiations. Bloomberg does not claim such proof exists, and no public investigation has established a direct connection.

Overall, Bloomberg’s reporting appears substantially accurate based on the public record. The delay itself, Lutnick’s leadership role and the administration’s desire to revisit aspects of the agreement are all supported by official statements or previous reporting. The specific details regarding changes to toll-sharing arrangements rely primarily on anonymous sources, but they are consistent with President Trump’s previously stated views and the administration’s broader negotiating philosophy of using economic leverage to seek more favorable terms for the United States.

—AFBF to spotlight farm labor crisis as workforce debate intensifies

Farm labor reform push comes as growers face mounting cost pressures

The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) will focus attention on one of agriculture’s most pressing policy issues when it hosts a virtual briefing on Monday, June 29, at 11:00 a.m. EDT, featuring AFBF President Zippy Duvall, Farm Bureau policy experts and farmers from Arizona, New York, North Carolina, California and Alabama to discuss the industry’s labor shortages and the future of Rep. GT Thompson’s (R-Pa.) Securing Agriculture’s Workforce Act.

The event comes at a time when labor has become one of the defining cost and competitiveness issues facing U.S. agriculture. While the H-2A temporary agricultural worker program has expanded rapidly over the past decade, many producers argue it has become increasingly expensive and administratively burdensome, leaving large segments of agriculture — including livestock, dairy, specialty crops and diversified farms — without a practical workforce solution.

Farm Bureau is expected to highlight how escalating Adverse Effect Wage Rates (AEWR), housing and transportation mandates, regulatory compliance costs and lengthy administrative requirements have driven total labor expenses sharply higher. Those costs are arriving at a particularly difficult time as many farmers confront lower commodity prices, elevated interest rates and still-high input expenses, squeezing already thin operating margins.

The briefing also serves as another opportunity for supporters to build momentum behind the Securing Agriculture’s Workforce Act, legislation championed by Thompson. The proposal seeks to modernize the H-2A program by streamlining application procedures, providing greater flexibility for employers and creating a pathway to legal status for experienced agricultural workers already employed in the industry. Supporters contend the legislation would provide greater labor certainty while strengthening border security through a legal workforce framework.

Although the bill has received broad backing from many agricultural organizations, including Farm Bureau, significant political hurdles remain. Immigration reform continues to divide Congress, and any agricultural workforce package must navigate broader debates over border security, employment verification and legal immigration. Even proposals narrowly focused on agriculture have historically struggled to gain sufficient bipartisan support despite widespread agreement that labor shortages threaten domestic food production.

The geographic diversity of farmers participating in Monday’s discussion — from Arizona, California and North Carolina to Alabama and New York—is likely intended to demonstrate that labor challenges extend well beyond fruit and vegetable production. Labor shortages increasingly affect nursery operations, dairy farms, livestock producers and other labor-intensive sectors across virtually every region of the country.

The discussion could also help shape the debate heading into the second half of the year as Congress weighs broader agricultural priorities. With many producers warning that workforce availability has become as critical as weather and input costs to maintaining production, Farm Bureau will likely argue that labor reform has evolved from a regional concern into a national competitiveness issue for U.S. agriculture.

— NWS outlook: Heavy rainfall and severe storms continue across portions of the Central U.S. the next few days; with expansion across Eastern U.S by Saturday… …Heat starts to build across the Southern U.S. by Saturday, while below normal temperatures spread from the West into the Northern Plains and Rockies… …Extremely Critical Fire Weather risk over parts of the central Great Basin and Southwest Friday; fire weather conditions continue this weekend.

—Heavy rains reshape wheat outlook as heat builds across Corn Belt

Flooding aids drought areas but raises quality concerns as heat follows

An unusually intense weather system is delivering one of the most consequential moisture events of the growing season across the central U.S., bringing major relief to drought-stressed areas of the hard red winter wheat belt while also creating new concerns over flooding, harvest delays and grain quality. The heaviest rainfall has fallen across south-central and southeastern Kansas, where widespread totals of 1.5 to 3 inches and isolated amounts of 5 to 6 inches near Wichita have triggered flash flooding and pushed parts of the state into one of their five wettest Junes on record.

For wheat producers, the rainfall is arriving at a mixed stage of the crop cycle. While moisture will benefit recently planted double-crop soybeans, replenish depleted soil moisture and improve prospects for fall wheat establishment, it is less welcome for mature hard red winter wheat that is awaiting harvest. Fields that were nearly ready for combines could face significant delays, and prolonged wet conditions increase the risk of lodging, sprouting and declines in test weight and milling quality. Exporters and millers will closely monitor quality reports from Kansas, the nation’s largest hard red winter wheat-producing state.

The storm system is now shifting eastward, with flood watches extending across portions of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Those areas could see localized flooding before the system lifts northward over the weekend. As a warm front advances Saturday into Sunday, scattered thunderstorms are expected to spread across much of the Corn Belt, providing additional rainfall to corn and soybean areas that have recently experienced uneven moisture.

Looking into next week, forecasters expect a more active weather regime to develop across the central Plains and western Corn Belt. Multiple rounds of nighttime thunderstorms are forecast to target northwestern Iowa and northern Nebraska, areas that have remained among the most moisture-deficient sections of the Corn Belt. If those storms materialize as projected, they could significantly improve crop conditions ahead of the critical pollination period for corn.

However, the moisture pattern will be accompanied by increasing heat. Beginning Monday and continuing through around July 3, temperatures are expected to average 4 to 8 degrees above normal across much of the Midwest, with anomalies of 8 to 10 degrees above normal near the Great Lakes. Afternoon highs are projected to reach the upper 80s to mid-90s across much of the Corn Belt, while portions of the southern Plains, Mid-South and Southeast could exceed 95 degrees.

From a market perspective, traders are likely to focus on whether the forecast thunderstorms verify across the western Corn Belt. Timely rainfall would reduce immediate stress on corn entering pollination and soybeans entering key vegetative growth stages, potentially limiting weather premium in grain futures. Conversely, if the anticipated precipitation underperforms while the heat intensifies, markets could quickly rebuild weather risk premiums during the first half of July.

Forecast models also suggest an active “ridge-rider” pattern developing during the July 6-10 period, with storm systems tracking around the northern edge of a western U.S. high-pressure ridge. Such patterns often produce repeated rounds of thunderstorms across the northern Plains and upper Midwest while allowing heat to persist farther south, making early July a pivotal period for both crop development and grain market direction.