POLICY  •  NEWS  •  MARKETS

AG POLICY & MARKETS DAILY

MONDAY, AUGUST 24, 2026   |   SPECIAL REPORT & ANALYSIS

SPECIAL REPORT  |  CATTLE & SCREWWORM

USDA Targets a 60-Day Reopening of New Mexico Cattle Ports

The move helps feeder supplies sooner than it lowers retail beef prices

Analysis  ·  August 24, 2026

USDA is moving its reopening of the Mexican cattle trade from a single-port test toward a broader, more commercially significant schedule.

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said one of New Mexico’s two livestock ports — Santa Teresa or Columbus — would reopen 30 days after Monday’s restart at Douglas, Ariz., with the other New Mexico port following 30 days later, according to Bloomberg. If that timetable holds, the first New Mexico crossing would resume trade in late September and the second in late October.

That oral timetable is more specific than USDA’s published operating guidance. The Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service still lists the reopening dates for Santa Teresa and Columbus as “to be determined” and says the schedule can be adjusted or halted if Mexico fails to meet its animal-health commitments or if the risk changes in Sonora or Chihuahua. Rollins’s schedule therefore should be viewed as a target rather than an unconditional promise.

Table 1. What is scheduled, what is not. Shares are of 2024 U.S. cattle imports from Mexico. Source: USDA; USDA APHIS; Bloomberg.

New Mexico Is the Real Supply Valve

Douglas is important as the first test of USDA’s revised import system, but the New Mexico ports will determine whether the reopening becomes economically meaningful.

Santa Teresa alone handled nearly 43% of Mexican cattle entering the U.S. in 2023, the last full year before the screwworm disruptions. Santa Teresa and Columbus together accounted for more than 53% of the trade. By comparison, all six Texas cattle ports combined handled about 19%.

Figure 1. Two New Mexico ports control the majority of the Mexican cattle trade. Source: USDA; USDA APHIS; Bloomberg.

That makes the still-undisclosed order of the New Mexico reopenings significant:

• Opening Santa Teresa first would maximize cattle flow and provide the quickest relief to Southwestern stocker operators and feedlots.
• Opening Columbus first would suggest USDA prefers another lower-volume test before activating the border’s dominant cattle portal.

Rollins’s statement that Texas ports will not reopen soon is less restrictive to overall trade than it might initially appear. USDA can restore a large portion of the historically important feeder-cattle corridor through Arizona and New Mexico while avoiding ports closest to the center of current U.S. screwworm activity.

Douglas itself is being reopened gradually. Mexican animal-health officials have said shipments will initially be limited to about 700 head per day, rising to 900 in the second week and eventually to approximately 1,300 head per day. That is a controlled ramp-up, not a sudden flood of cattle.

Imports Will Be Noticeable, but Still Small Nationally

U.S. imports of Mexican cattle averaged about 1.17 million head annually from 2004 through 2023. Roughly 36% of the annual total historically entered between September and December, when new-crop Mexican calves begin moving north.

Oklahoma State University livestock economist Derrell Peel estimates that as many as 250,000 Mexican cattle could enter during the remainder of 2026, but considers approximately 150,000 head more realistic because the ports will require time to increase staffing, process paperwork and establish confidence that the border will remain open.

Even the upper estimate would equal less than 1% of USDA’s projected 32.5 million-head U.S. calf crop for 2026. The more realistic 150,000-head estimate would amount to roughly 0.5%. USDA says the calf crop is down 2% from 2025, while the number of beef cows is down 1%.

Table 2. The reopening is meaningful regionally and marginal nationally. Source: USDA; Oklahoma State University (Derrell Peel).

The reopening therefore can affect feeder cattle prices and regional basis levels without being large enough to reverse the national cattle shortage.

Feedlots Benefit Long Before Consumers Do

Nearly all Mexican cattle imports are lightweight feeder animals rather than cattle ready for slaughter. In 2023, about 98.7% weighed less than 700 pounds, and many were light enough to spend time in stocker or grazing programs before entering feedlots. Peel estimates the imported animals will generally require six to eight months before slaughter, meaning cattle entering this fall may not contribute beef supplies until around March 2027.

That creates a clear sequence of effects:

Figure 2. The reopening reaches feedlots this fall and beef production in 2027. Source: USDA; Oklahoma State University; Associated Press.

Southwestern stocker operators and feedlots benefit first. They regain access to a traditional source of calves and can fill pens that have been increasingly difficult and expensive to stock.

Domestic cow-calf producers face some additional competition. The effect should be greatest in the Southern Plains and Southwest, where Mexican calves compete most directly with U.S. feeder cattle. The impact becomes more substantial once Santa Teresa reopens.

Beef packers benefit later. Additional placements this fall could modestly improve slaughter-cattle availability and plant utilization in 2027.

Consumers are last in line. These are not immediate-slaughter cattle, so the reopening will not quickly add ground beef, steaks or roasts to supermarket supplies.

USDA’s own outlook continues to show tighter calf availability into late 2026 and early 2027. The department expects cattle prices to remain supported in 2027 even after raising its beef import forecasts.

That is why the administration’s separate plan to allow 300,000 metric tons of ground-beef imports under temporary tariff relief operates on a much faster clock. Imported beef can move directly into processing and retail channels, while imported Mexican calves must first be grown and fed. Even so, economists interviewed by the Associated Press said neither action is likely to produce a measurable near-term decline in retail beef prices.

The Herd May Be Stabilizing, but It Is Not Yet Rebuilt

USDA’s July cattle inventory contained the first tentative evidence that U.S. producers are beginning to retain more females for breeding. Beef replacement heifers totaled 3.8 million head, up about 3% from a year earlier. However, beef-cow numbers were still down 1%, the calf crop was down 2% and the supply of feeder cattle outside feedlots remained historically tight.

That combination means herd rebuilding has perhaps started at the margin, but it will initially make beef supplies tighter rather than larger. Every heifer kept for breeding is one less animal available for immediate feeding and slaughter. Her first calf will not become beef for several years.

Mexican feeder cattle can help bridge that gap. They can preserve feedlot utilization and support packing capacity while U.S. ranchers retain females. But imports cannot substitute for rebuilding the domestic cow herd.

USDA Is Reopening Trade Before Screwworm Is Eliminated

The biosecurity decision is more complicated than it appeared when USDA first announced the Douglas reopening in July.

At that time, USDA described Sonora and Chihuahua as Mexico’s lowest-risk states and said the closest active case to Douglas was about 325 miles away. Since then, Chihuahua has reported 183 confirmed cases following its first detection in July, while Sonora has confirmed two cases after reporting its first detection only last week. Mexico recently had 1,969 active cases spread across 30 of its 32 states.

Figure 3. The reopening ports sit in the two Mexican states where screwworm has most recently appeared. Source: USDA APHIS; Senasica; Bloomberg.

The U.S. also has recorded more than 40 cumulative animal cases in Texas and southeastern New Mexico. The statement that only two Texas cases remain “active” should not be interpreted to mean the outbreak risk has been reduced to two locations. APHIS classifies an individual animal case as inactive after treatment or other mitigation is completed, but the surrounding infested zone can remain active and subject to movement controls.

USDA is therefore not reopening the border because the pest has disappeared. It is reopening because the department believes cattle can be moved through a layered inspection, treatment and enforcement system while broader eradication work continues.

The Import Protocol Is Designed to Stop an Entire Shipment

Before export, cattle must receive a screwworm examination and an APHIS-approved treatment from an authorized Mexican veterinarian three to five days before the U.S. inspection. Animals with wounds or other noncompliance are removed from the shipment.

A Mexican government veterinarian must then examine and certify the cattle within 24 hours of the APHIS inspection. At the border facility, APHIS personnel conduct a physical examination, tick scratch test, detector-dog inspection, identification check and dip-vat treatment. Any animal with a suspicious wound can be refused entry.

If screwworm is suspected, the entire lot is held while samples are tested. A confirmed case results in all animals being removed from export, closure and disinfestation of the facility and a 90-day export prohibition.

Figure 4. Lot-level penalties push the screening burden back onto Mexican exporters and veterinarians. Source: USDA APHIS; Texas & Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association.

That severe lot-level penalty gives Mexican exporters, veterinarians and facility operators a strong financial incentive to identify questionable animals before they reach the border.

The Texas & Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association endorsed USDA’s phased approach but made clear that its support is conditional. The group said it would call for immediate port closures if an established safety trigger fails.

Sterile-Fly Capacity Remains a Constraint

USDA is releasing about 100 million sterile flies per week in Mexico and Texas, while Mexico has opened additional production capacity in Chiapas. USDA also operates a dispersal facility at Moore Air Base in Edinburg, Texas, capable of deploying more than 80 million flies weekly.

However, the Moore facility distributes flies; it does not produce them. The first major domestic U.S. production facility is still being built in southern Texas and is not expected to be completed until spring 2027. Until then, the U.S. response remains heavily dependent on flies produced in Panama and Mexico.

Table 3. Eradication capacity is still being built while trade resumes. Source: USDA APHIS; Senasica.

That dependence increases the importance of surveillance, shipment inspection and livestock-movement controls. USDA does not yet have unlimited sterile-fly capacity available to extinguish a large, rapidly expanding domestic outbreak.

Market Implications

For feeder cattle, the reopening is bearish at the margin because it adds calves directly to the segment where supplies have been tightest. The effect should become more visible once Santa Teresa resumes operations.

For live cattle, the immediate impact is smaller. Most imported cattle will not reach slaughter weights until 2027.

For feedlots and packers, the reopening is constructive because it supports placements, feed demand and future plant utilization.

For U.S. cow-calf producers, the principal risk is not an overwhelming volume of imports but the removal of part of the scarcity premium that has supported historically high calf prices.

The policy also introduces two-sided volatility. A successful reopening could gradually pressure feeder values, while a new screwworm detection near a port, a failed audit or a rejected shipment could abruptly close a crossing and restore the supply premium.

Table 4. Where the reopening lands, by market segment. Source: Ag Policy & Markets Daily analysis.

Bottom Line

USDA’s plan represents a meaningful normalization of the North American cattle supply chain, particularly once one of the New Mexico ports reopens. Santa Teresa is the critical decision because of its dominant historical share of Mexican cattle trade.

But the reopening is primarily a feedlot-supply and industry-capacity measure, not an immediate consumer-beef-price solution. The imported animals will influence feeder markets this fall, feedlot inventories over the winter and beef production in 2027. They are unlikely to materially change supermarket prices before then.

The greater uncertainty is biological rather than commercial. USDA is proceeding while screwworm remains active in the U.S. and in Mexico’s principal cattle-exporting states. The success of the policy will depend less on the announced 30-day calendar than on whether the inspection system, sterile-fly campaign and automatic closure triggers work when tested.

AG POLICY & MARKETS DAILY   |   SPECIAL REPORT  |  CATTLE & SCREWWORM — MONDAY, AUGUST 24, 2026