USTR Greer Comments on Summit and Board of Trade & Lower Tariffs Ahead 

Paxton easily defeats Cornyn in Texas as ag sector favorite Tom Sell also surges to GOP victory in Texas House primary 

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, May 22
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, May 22
 

TOP STORIES
 

— Paxton easily topples Cornyn in Texas GOP shakeup, setting up high-stakes November battle: Trump-backed attorney general defeats longtime Senate incumbent as Republicans brace for a competitive general election against Democrat James Talarico

— Cornyn defeat reshapes ag politics: Texas runoff outcome signals deeper shift toward populist conservatism in U.S. farm policy debates

— Sell easily wins West Texas GOP runoff: Tom Sell defeats Abraham Enriquez in Texas’ 19th Congressional District Republican primary runoff, positioning himself as the heavy favorite for November

— Tuesday’s Texas runoff elections delivered major political shakeups for both parties, including the first Democratic incumbent defeats of the 2026 election cycle

— Trump moves Cabinet meeting to White House from Camp David due to bad weather: High-level retreat comes as administration navigates national security and policy crosscurrents

— Greer signals imminent launch of U.S./China Board of Trade process: USTR to seek public comments as Trump administration moves ahead with new economic framework aimed at managing trade ties with Beijing and reducing tariffs on select goods

— FT: Stopgap U.S./Iran deal seen as “least worst option”: Financial Times says emerging ceasefire framework could ease energy fears while postponing deeper disputes over Iran’s nuclear and missile programs

— China uses UN stage to criticize U.S. foreign policy: Wang Yi warns against unilateral military action in thinly veiled swipe at Trump administration

— Rubio seeks to reassure India amid strained ties: Trump tariffs and Pakistan outreach complicate strategic partnership

— CFTC rethinks headquarters move: Regulator may abandon planned Patriots Plaza relocation in favor of co-locating with the SEC near Union Station

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today: Global equities pushed higher Wednesday as investors weighed prospects for extending a fragile U.S./Iran truce, while easing oil prices and AI enthusiasm supported broader risk appetite

— Equities yesterday: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at record highs, led by Micron’s 19% surge above a $1 trillion market cap for the first time

— Bernstein conference puts focus on corporate outlooks, economy: Top executives from banking, aerospace and other sectors expected to outline views on growth, markets and policy risks

— Mortgage rates hit highest level since August: Applications fall sharply as rising Treasury yields and fading Fed cut expectations pressure housing demand

— Trump backs CFTC control of prediction markets: President pushes for exclusive federal oversight as administration positions U.S. to dominate emerging event-based trading sector

AG MARKETS

— Grain markets face summer crosscurrents: Improving crop prospects, fund liquidation risk, easing Middle East tensions and uncertainty over China demand could pressure prices into August, say some analysts
— Overnight grain markets slide as planting nears finish line: Corn and wheat futures extend losses on improving U.S. weather, falling crude oil and mounting technical pressure while soybean traders monitor export demand and South American competition

— Global grain markets mixed as Russian wheat holds firm: Strong ruble, slow farmer selling support Russian prices while Paris wheat futures ease

— U.S. crop progress advances as corn and soybean planting outpace average: USDA data showed strong planting momentum for corn and soybeans during the week ended May 24, while winter wheat conditions remained historically weak and rice ratings held generally favorable

— Indonesia’s palm oil export shake-up disrupts supply chain: Bloomberg reports Indonesia’s proposed government takeover of key commodity exports is creating turmoil in the palm oil market, leaving some smallholder fruit uncollected and raising fresh concerns over supply-chain disruptions

— Agriculture markets yesterday

RICE INDUSTRY

— Missouri Rice rejoins National Federation: Bootheel producers regain access to USA Rice advocacy, trade promotion, and research programs as industry leaders push for a more unified voice amid export and farm policy challenges

FARM POLICY

— Boozman faces pressure on Prop 12: Republicans and pork industry lobbyists push Senate Ag chairman to revisit California livestock confinement language in farm bill talks

— NFU pushes Senate for broad farm safety net overhaul: Farm group sends letter to Senate lawmakers warning that mounting financial stress is threatening family farm viability

— Sugar coalition pushes back on new tariffs: Food manufacturers and consumer groups tell USTR additional Section 301 duties on sugar imports would raise grocery costs and undermine recent congressional reforms

FERTILIZER

— DOT extends fertilizer hauling hours waiver through 2026: FMCSA grants seasonal relief in 35 states after industry request, easing delivery pressures during peak fertilizer demand periods

— China signals urea export return: Reuters reports Beijing has issued export quotas as global buyers, including India, seek relief from tight fertilizer supplies tied to Middle East disruptions

— Fertilizer consolidation draws renewed scrutiny amid supply risks: Farmdoc Daily authors say concentrated nitrogen fertilizer industry could amplify pricing power and limit future production expansion

— Brazil fertilizer deals seen rebounding amid supply security push: Middle East disruptions and Brazil’s heavy import dependence are driving renewed interest in fertilizer-sector consolidation and domestic investment

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Wednesday: Oil slides on Iran deal hopes: Brent crude falls nearly 3% as markets weigh prospects for a U.S./Iran agreement and limited tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz

— Tuesday: Oil prices surge as U.S. strikes in Iran rattle markets: Renewed military tensions and continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz revive fears over global energy supplies and inflation pressures

TRADE POLICY

— Greer again floats reuse of Section 122 tariffs: USTR chief suggests temporary tariffs could be reimposed after July expiration as broader trade probes continue

— CBP processes $20 billion in tariff refunds as broader repayment effort expands: Agency says more than $85 billion in potential and certified refunds are now in the pipeline following court-ordered reversal of IEEPA tariffs

— House GOP targets Mexico VAT policy ahead of USMCA review: Lawmakers argue Mexico’s 16% VAT on some U.S. agricultural products acts as a “de facto tariff” that violates national treatment rules under the trade pact

CHINA

— China industrial profits surge on AI, energy demand: Manufacturing and mining earnings accelerated sharply as AI-linked sectors and higher oil prices boosted margins amid Middle East tensions

FEDERAL WORKERS

— OPM floats NDA requirement for federal workers: Proposal draws sharp union pushback over transparency and whistleblower concerns

LABOR & IMMIGRATION POLICY

— Thompson unveils H-2A expansion draft: Proposal would broaden access for year-round agriculture operations and revise wage, housing and recruitment rules

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— Courts, GOP lawmakers slow new redistricting pushes: Alabama map heads back to the Supreme Court while South Carolina Republicans resist a Trump-backed effort to redraw districts before the 2026 elections

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms continue for much of the Southern U.S. through late week; unsettled weather lingers across parts of the West; summerlike heat persists for the northern Plains and Upper Midwest

— Omega block to ease as Corn Belt rain chances return: Extended dry spell accelerates planting and crop development, but relief is expected in early June as the blocking weather pattern weakens

— Equities today: Global equities pushed higher Wednesday as investors weighed the prospects for extending a fragile U.S./Iran truce, while easing oil prices and continued enthusiasm around artificial intelligence stocks supported broader risk appetite.

European equities advanced after a strong session in Asia, where Japanese and South Korean indexes touched fresh record highs. MSCI’s All-Country World Index also moved higher as traders bet that diplomatic talks could prevent another major escalation in the Middle East. 

In Asia, Japan flat. Hong Kong -1.1%. China -1.3%. India -0.2%.
 

In Europe, at midday, London +0.3%. Paris +0.8%. Frankfurt +0.5%.

On Wall Street, futures pointed to another positive open after the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed at record highs Tuesday. Investors continued piling into AI-linked technology shares, with chipmakers remaining a major driver of the rally. Reuters reported that Micron Technology recently crossed the $1 trillion market valuation threshold, helping reinforce bullish sentiment across the semiconductor sector. 

Markets were also closely monitoring developments tied to the Strait of Hormuz after recent U.S. military strikes in Iran complicated negotiations. Although Tehran condemned the strikes, investors appeared encouraged that both sides were still signaling interest in continuing talks. 

Oil prices eased after Tuesday’s sharp rally. Brent crude slipped back below the $100-per-barrel mark in early trading, while U.S. crude futures also moved lower as traders reassessed the likelihood of prolonged supply disruptions. 

Meanwhile, investors are turning their attention to upcoming U.S. inflation data, particularly the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. Treasury yields edged lower for a third straight session as markets continued to balance geopolitical risks against expectations for economic resilience and strong corporate earnings growth.

Fed watch: In Tokyo, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson are set to participate in a panel discussion about monetary policy at the Monetary Policy from New Perspectives Conference hosted by the Bank of Japan Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Lisa Cook is slated to speak on “AI, the Economy, and the Financial System” before the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Policy Forum in Stanford.

— Equities yesterday: The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both closed at record highs. The Tuesday move was led by Micron, which soared 19% and traded above a $1 trillion market capitalization for the first time. The tech stock passed Walmart and Eli Lilly to become the 10th-largest U.S. company by market value.

— Bernstein conference puts focus on corporate outlooks, economy

Top executives from banking, aerospace and other sectors expected to outline views on growth, markets and policy risks

The annual Strategic Decisions Conference hosted by Bernstein begins this week, bringing together some of the most closely watched executives on Wall Street and across corporate America at a time of heightened investor focus on economic growth, interest rates, geopolitics and trade policy.

The three-day gathering is widely viewed by investors as an important venue for corporate leaders to provide updates on business conditions, capital spending plans, consumer demand and broader market sentiment heading into the second half of 2026. Executives often use the conference to discuss industry trends, regulatory developments and strategic priorities, while investors look for clues on earnings momentum and the macroeconomic outlook.

Among the opening day speakers are Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase, Kelly Ortberg of Boeing, and Brian Moynihan of Bank of America.

Dimon’s remarks are expected to draw particular attention as markets continue to assess the economic implications of Federal Reserve policy, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and uncertainty surrounding global trade negotiations. Investors will also watch for commentary on consumer credit conditions, corporate borrowing activity and capital markets trends.

Meanwhile, Ortberg’s appearance comes as Boeing continues efforts to stabilize aircraft production, improve manufacturing oversight and rebuild investor confidence following years of operational and regulatory challenges. Analysts will likely focus on updates involving commercial aircraft demand, supply-chain constraints and defense business trends.

Moynihan is also expected to address the health of the U.S. consumer, loan growth and business investment trends. Large banks have become key barometers for the broader economy as investors gauge whether higher interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty are beginning to weigh more heavily on spending and credit quality.

The conference arrives during a busy week for markets, with investors also monitoring U.S. inflation data, Federal Reserve expectations, developments surrounding U.S./Iran negotiations and the outlook for global trade and energy markets.

— Mortgage rates hit highest level since August

Applications fall sharply as rising Treasury yields and fading Fed cut expectations pressure housing demand 

The average U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate for conforming loans climbed to 6.65% in the week ending May 22 from 6.56% the previous week, marking the fifth straight weekly increase and the highest level since August 2025, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Higher borrowing costs tracked a rise in Treasury yields as investors reacted to persistent inflation concerns tied to elevated fuel prices and growing global public debt burdens. Markets have increasingly pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with some investors now pricing in the possibility of an interest-rate hike by the end of the year.

The jump in rates weighed heavily on housing activity. Total mortgage applications fell 8.5% from the prior week, the steepest decline in nearly two months. Refinance applications dropped 18.1%, while purchase applications edged down 0.4%, signaling continued affordability pressures for prospective homebuyers.

— Trump backs CFTC control of prediction markets

President pushes for exclusive federal oversight as administration positions U.S. to dominate emerging event-based trading sector

President Donald Trump said Tuesday that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) should retain exclusive authority over U.S. prediction markets, underscoring the administration’s support for a rapidly expanding sector that blends finance, politics, sports, and event forecasting. In a Truth Social post, Trump said it was “critically important” for the CFTC to maintain sole regulatory oversight, arguing that the administration was creating rules that would serve as the “Gold Standard for the States.”

Trump framed prediction markets as part of a broader effort to cement U.S. leadership in digital finance and emerging trading platforms. He warned that foreign competitors were seeking to capture the industry, saying “other countries are after this new form of Financial Market, and we want to remain at the top.” 

The comments also tied into his broader push to position the United States as the global hub for cryptocurrencies and blockchain-linked financial innovation.

Prediction markets — which allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of political elections, economic indicators, sporting events, and other real-world developments — have become a major flashpoint in the debate over federal financial regulation. The CFTC has traditionally overseen derivatives and futures markets, but state gaming regulators and some lawmakers have argued that certain prediction contracts resemble gambling products.

Trump’s remarks signal continued White House backing for the CFTC’s role amid growing industry pressure for clearer federal rules. Supporters argue that prediction markets improve price discovery and provide valuable forecasting signals, while critics warn the products could blur the line between regulated financial instruments and speculative betting.

The comments also arrive as the administration continues promoting digital asset markets more broadly. Trump reiterated Tuesday that the U.S. is the “crypto Capital of the World” and said the industry must be protected from regulatory fragmentation and overseas competition.

— Grain markets face summer crosscurrents

Improving crop prospects, fund liquidation risk, easing Middle East tensions and uncertainty over China demand could pressure prices into August, say some analysts

Grain markets are entering a period where several bearish macro and fundamental themes could converge at the same time, potentially driving corn, soybean and wheat futures lower through much of the summer if weather risks ease and speculative money begins exiting the market.

One scenario increasingly discussed in the trade is that the market may have already priced in a sizable amount of geopolitical and weather premium following months of uncertainty tied to the Middle East conflict, global fertilizer disruptions, uneven crop weather and hopes for expanded Chinese buying programs. If those concerns begin fading simultaneously, futures markets could struggle to maintain recent support levels.

At the center of the discussion is the large speculative long position held by managed money funds across portions of the grain complex. Funds accumulated bullish positions as weather concerns emerged in parts of the Corn Belt, energy prices surged during the Iran conflict, and traders anticipated stronger export demand tied to ongoing U.S.-China negotiations. But history shows that once weather fears moderate and crops stabilize during the critical June-through-August growing season, speculative liquidation can accelerate quickly.

The weather forecast itself is becoming increasingly important to market psychology. Forecast models have recently trended drier across portions of the western and northwestern Corn Belt, but if rains materialize and crop ratings stabilize or improve into July, traders may begin assuming a larger U.S. harvest is developing. In corn and soybeans especially, the market remains highly sensitive to yield expectations after several years of weather volatility globally.

Meanwhile, the geopolitical premium embedded in energy and fertilizer markets could also begin eroding if the U.S. and Iran ultimately reach an agreement that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and normalizes regional shipping flows. Such a development would likely pressure crude oil prices lower, ease some fertilizer input concerns and reduce broader inflation fears that have helped support parts of the commodity sector.

Lower energy prices would carry particular implications for soybean oil and biofuel-linked demand expectations. During the Iran conflict, traders aggressively priced in risks to diesel, renewable fuel feedstocks and global vegetable oil flows. A de-escalation could reverse some of that premium, particularly if crude oil retreats sharply.

China remains another major variable. Markets continue waiting for evidence of a large-scale Chinese purchasing agreement following repeated optimism surrounding trade negotiations and summit diplomacy. But some traders increasingly worry about “China fatigue” developing in the marketplace — a situation where traders become less willing to price in anticipated purchases until actual sales are confirmed.

The market has repeatedly rallied on expectations of future Chinese demand only to see buying emerge more slowly than hoped. That uncertainty becomes more important if South American supplies remain competitive and Brazil continues dominating soybean exports into Asia.

Meanwhile, seasonal tendencies may also reinforce a softer tone into late summer. Grain markets often struggle during periods when weather threats diminish, harvest expectations rise and speculative money rotates into other sectors. If outside markets simultaneously become more optimistic about easing geopolitical tensions and slowing inflation, commodities broadly could lose some investor support.

That does not eliminate upside risks. A return to widespread Corn Belt heat or drought during pollination, renewed conflict involving Iran, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, or a surprise Chinese buying program could quickly reverse sentiment. Global grain inventories also remain tighter than in many past cycles, particularly when adjusted for exporter-controlled supplies.

Still, the market appears increasingly vulnerable to a “risk premium unwind” scenario over the next several months, some analysts note. If improving crop conditions combine with fund liquidation, easing energy prices and disappointment over Chinese demand, grain futures could face a difficult path heading toward August.

— Overnight grain markets slide as planting nears finish line

Corn and wheat futures extend losses on improving U.S. weather, falling crude oil and mounting technical pressure while soybean traders monitor export demand and South American competition

Corn, soybean and wheat futures were broadly lower in overnight trade as improving Midwest planting weather, declining crude oil prices and increasingly bearish technical signals pressured the grain complex. Corn futures led the downside move, with July corn briefly falling to its lowest intraday level since mid-April as speculative long liquidation accelerated. 

July corn futures fell 2.75 cents overnight to $4.5475 per bushel after touching $4.5450 earlier in the session, while December corn declined 2.5 cents to $4.7950. The market is now down more than 5% from the May 13 highs, reflecting a sharp shift in sentiment after weeks of weather-driven risk premium. 

Soybean futures also weakened overnight, though losses were more limited than corn. July soybeans slipped 0.75 cent to $11.8525 per bushel while November soybeans held near unchanged at $11.8025. Traders continue to monitor the lack of sustained Chinese buying interest alongside aggressive South American export competition. 

Wheat futures also extended their recent correction lower despite historically poor U.S. winter wheat crop ratings. July Chicago SRW wheat dropped 9 cents to $6.2650 while Kansas City HRW wheat lost 6.75 cents to $6.6950.  

From a broader market perspective, grain futures are entering a more weather-sensitive phase where summer rainfall patterns and temperature forecasts will increasingly dictate price direction. While export demand for U.S. corn remains historically strong and winter wheat conditions remain poor, traders are shifting attention toward improving planting progress, favorable near-term forecasts and the possibility of expanding global supplies later this year.

— Global grain markets mixed as Russian wheat holds firm

Strong ruble, slow farmer selling support Russian prices while Paris wheat futures ease

International grain markets were mixed Wednesday, with European wheat futures under pressure while Russian export wheat values remained firm amid currency strength, slow farmer selling, and growing weather concerns in key production areas.

On the Euronext exchange in Paris, September milling wheat futures fell €1.75 per metric ton to €212.50/MT. Using current exchange rates and standard conversion metrics, that equates to roughly $6.63 per bushel in U.S. terms. The decline reflected broader pressure from improving Northern Hemisphere harvest expectations and cautious global demand.

Meanwhile, Russian FOB wheat prices were steady, with nearby June shipment offers holding at $245/MT and new-crop offers near $244/MT. Those values translate to approximately $6.67 per bushel and $6.64 per bushel, respectively, on a U.S. Gulf equivalent basis.

The Russian wheat market continues to find support from a strengthening ruble, which reduces exporter competitiveness and discourages aggressive farmer selling. Traders also remain focused on weather risks across southwestern Russia, where forecasts call for excessive rainfall in an important winter wheat production region. Persistent wet conditions could threaten crop quality and slow harvest progress if forecasts verify.

Meanwhile, August Malaysian palm oil futures were unavailable due to a national holiday, limiting broader vegetable oil market direction during the session.

Global grain traders continue to closely monitor Black Sea weather developments, currency movements, and export competitiveness as Northern Hemisphere harvest activity accelerates heading into June.

— U.S. crop progress advances as corn and soybean planting outpace average

USDA data showed strong planting momentum for corn and soybeans during the week ended May 24, while winter wheat conditions remained historically weak and rice ratings held generally favorable

USDA’s latest weekly Crop Progress report showed U.S. farmers continuing to make rapid planting progress across much of the Corn Belt, aided by generally favorable field conditions in the Midwest and Plains. 

• Corn planting reached 86% complete in the top 18 producing states as of May 24, up from 76% the previous week and ahead of the five-year average pace of 83%. Corn emergence reached 60%, slightly above the historical average of 58%.

Major producing states posted rapid planting advances. Iowa corn planting reached 94%, Illinois 86%, Nebraska 92%, and Minnesota 94%. Corn emergence stood at 68% in Illinois, 73% in Missouri, and 85% in Texas.

• Soybean planting also accelerated sharply, reaching 79% complete in the top 18 producing states, ahead of the five-year average of 68% and above last year’s 75%. Soybean emergence reached 49%, also ahead of the normal pace of 40%. 

Iowa soybean planting reached 90%, Nebraska 91%, and Minnesota 90%, while Mississippi and Louisiana both exceeded 90%. Soybean emergence showed similarly strong development, with Arkansas at 80%, Mississippi at 84%, and Tennessee at 71%. Nationally, soybean emergence continued to run well ahead of average, reflecting favorable early-season weather across much of the Midwest. 

• Cotton planting reached 53% complete across the top 15 producing states, matching the five-year average pace. Texas, the nation’s largest cotton producer, was 42% planted, while Georgia stood at 58% and Mississippi reached 73%. Tennessee cotton planting advanced rapidly to 87%. 

• Rice planting across the six major producing states reached 93%, slightly above the five-year average of 92%, while rice emergence stood at 78%, matching the historical norm. Arkansas rice planting reached 98%, while Louisiana and Texas both hit 100%. Rice condition ratings were generally supportive, with 73% of the crop rated good-to-excellent nationally, compared to 74% a year ago. Only 4% was rated very poor-to-poor. 

• Sorghum planting remained slower than desired in some Plains areas. The six major producing states were 37% planted, roughly in line with the five-year average of 38%. Texas, however, remained the leader at 80% planted, while Kansas stood at just 17%. 

• Winter wheat development moved ahead steadily, with the crop 78% headed in the top 18 states, above the five-year average of 70%. Kansas winter wheat was 97% headed, Oklahoma 98%, and Texas 95%. 

However, winter wheat condition ratings remained historically weak. Nationally, only 26% of the crop was rated good-to-excellent, down from 27% the previous week and well below 50% last year. Meanwhile, 44% was rated poor-to-very poor, highlighting ongoing stress from drought and weather volatility across portions of the Plains. Nebraska remained especially troubled, with 82% of the crop rated poor-to-very poor, while Kansas showed 55% poor-to-very poor ratings. 

Spring wheat planting reached 79% complete in the six key producing states, matching the five-year average. Emergence reached 51%, slightly ahead of normal. North Dakota spring wheat was 83% planted and 43% emerged, while South Dakota was 98% planted and 90% emerged. 

• USDA also reported generally favorable field conditions nationally, with farmers averaging 5.7 days suitable for fieldwork during the week. Topsoil moisture nationwide was rated 64% adequate and 13% surplus, while subsoil moisture was 62% adequate and 10% surplus.

— Indonesia’s palm oil export shake-up disrupts supply chain

Bloomberg reports Indonesia’s proposed government takeover of key commodity exports is creating turmoil in the palm oil market, leaving some smallholder fruit uncollected and raising fresh concerns over supply-chain disruptions in the world’s largest palm oil producer 

According to Bloomberg, some Indonesian palm oil refiners are temporarily avoiding spot purchases of palm fruit from small farmers as they wait for details on President Prabowo Subianto’s new export-control framework. The uncertainty has slowed trading activity and disrupted the movement of fresh fruit bunches from rural plantations to refiners.

Industry groups warned that the disruption is already affecting small growers. Mansuetus Darto, chairman of the Indonesian Oil Palm Farmers’ Association, said collectors have stopped dispatching trucks to pick up fruit in some regions, leaving harvested palm fruit to spoil in the fields. Many independent farmers lack their own transportation and rely heavily on middlemen and collection networks to move fruit quickly before quality deteriorates.

The market reaction follows Prabowo’s announcement that Indonesia plans to place exports of several strategic commodities — including palm oil, thermal coal, and some nickel products — under more direct government control. Indonesia dominates global exports in all three sectors, making the policy shift highly significant for international commodity markets.

The uncertainty has also unsettled pricing mechanisms. State-linked tenders, which serve as a benchmark for domestic crude palm oil prices and export offers, reportedly slowed after the announcement as buyers sharply reduced bids for spot cargoes. The hesitation in Indonesia contrasted with rising Malaysian palm oil futures, creating unusual divergence between the two closely linked markets.

The policy shift is fueling broader investor concerns about government intervention in commodity trade flows. Traders are now watching for details on how export permits, pricing authority, and state participation would function under the proposed system. Any prolonged disruption in Indonesia’s exports could tighten global edible oil supplies and potentially support competing vegetable oils, including soybean oil and sunflower oil.

For agricultural markets, the developments are especially important because Indonesia accounts for roughly 60% of global palm oil exports. Any bottlenecks in Indonesian supply chains can quickly ripple into food inflation, biofuel markets, and global vegetable oil trade flows.

— Agriculture markets yesterday: 

Note: Prices as of market close. Differences reflect change from prior Friday (May 22, 2025) closing prices.

— Missouri Rice rejoins National Federation

Bootheel producers regain access to USA Rice advocacy, trade promotion, and research programs as industry leaders push for a more unified voice amid export and farm policy challenges 

The Missouri Rice Research and Merchandising Council voted to rejoin the USA Rice Federation, bringing Missouri back into the national rice advocacy group alongside Arkansas, California, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The move restores Missouri growers’ access to the federation’s domestic and international market development programs, legislative advocacy efforts, and industry research initiatives.

Industry leaders framed the decision as particularly important as the U.S. rice sector faces pressure in export markets and ongoing debates over the farm safety net in Washington. USA Rice Chair Keith Glover said a “united industry is a stronger industry,” arguing that broader coordination among rice-producing states will strengthen the industry’s position on trade and farm policy priorities.

The return of Missouri also bolsters USA Rice promotion efforts supported by USDA Foreign Agricultural Service funding, including export and consumer outreach programs operating in more than 20 countries. Officials said Missouri’s participation will add producers, research infrastructure, and additional financial resources to federation-wide initiatives.

Missouri’s rice production is concentrated in the Bootheel region, where growers have increasingly focused on maintaining export competitiveness and strengthening federal policy support. Rance Daniels, chair of the Missouri Rice Council and vice chair of the USA Rice Farmers Board, said rejoining the federation will give Missouri farmers a stronger voice in Washington and global markets while helping defend long-term farm viability.

The transition also includes leadership ties between the organizations. Mollie Buckler, who most recently served as president and CEO of the U.S. Rice Producers Association, will move with Missouri into the federation structure. USA Rice officials said committees and boards will be restructured over the summer to ensure Missouri representation throughout the organization.

— Boozman faces pressure on Prop 12

Republicans and pork industry lobbyists push Senate Ag chairman to revisit California livestock confinement language in farm bill talks

Senate Ag Committee Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) is facing growing pressure from some Republicans and agricultural groups to reconsider excluding Proposition 12 pre-emption language from the Senate farm bill, as lawmakers debate which controversial provisions can survive the chamber’s bipartisan threshold.

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) publicly criticized Boozman’s decision Tuesday, arguing the farm bill represents the best — and possibly only — legislative vehicle to address California’s animal confinement standards law. Grassley said Boozman’s effort to craft a bipartisan package has complicated inclusion of the provision because several Democrats oppose overturning or weakening Proposition 12.

Boozman reportedly supports finding a fix to Proposition 12 but believes the current language lacks the bipartisan backing needed to secure the 60 votes necessary for Senate passage. Boozman intends to continue discussions aimed at finding a compromise solution.

The debate centers on language approved by the House that would effectively preempt California’s Proposition 12 standards, which regulate the confinement of breeding pigs, egg-laying hens, and veal calves and impose requirements on products sold into the California market. Pork producers and many farm-state Republicans argue the law creates costly compliance burdens and allows one state to dictate production standards nationwide.

The National Pork Producers Council is actively lobbying Senate Democrats in hopes of demonstrating enough bipartisan support to convince Boozman to revisit the issue. 

The House Rules Committee blocked consideration of a bipartisan amendment from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) and Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.) that would have stripped the Proposition 12 preemption language from the House farm bill. Luna and Costa argued that overturning the standards would disadvantage farmers who already invested heavily to comply with California’s requirements.

— NFU pushes Senate for broad farm safety net overhaul

Farm group sends letter to Senate lawmakers warning that mounting financial stress is threatening family farm viability

The National Farmers Union is escalating pressure on the Senate to enact what it calls urgent and comprehensive reforms to the farm safety net, warning that many family farmers and ranchers are facing deepening financial strain amid weak commodity prices and elevated production costs.

In a letter (link) sent Tuesday to Senate leadership and members of the Senate Ag Committee, NFU called on lawmakers to modernize key farm programs and strengthen economic protections for producers. The organization said current safety net programs no longer adequately reflect today’s farm economy or the risks facing producers across rural America. NFU argued that prolonged margin compression, high interest rates, expensive inputs and ongoing market uncertainty are leaving many operations financially vulnerable heading into the second half of 2026. The group is urging senators to strengthen reference prices under commodity programs, improve crop insurance affordability and accessibility, expand disaster assistance and update support mechanisms to better address weather volatility and trade disruptions. (NFU provided no cost estimates of their proposals.) 

The organization also stressed that reforms should ensure small and mid-sized family farms are not disadvantaged relative to larger operations when federal support programs are updated. NFU said the Senate has an opportunity to craft a more durable and responsive safety net as lawmakers continue work on a broader farm bill package.

The renewed push comes as farm groups intensify lobbying efforts around the stalled farm bill debate and broader agricultural policy negotiations. Many commodity organizations have warned that declining crop prices, tighter credit conditions and uncertain export demand are increasing pressure on farm balance sheets despite generally solid production prospects in several regions.

NFU President Rob Larew said in the organization’s statement (link) that farmers need “meaningful action” from Congress rather than short-term fixes, arguing that the current economic environment is exposing weaknesses in existing support programs.

— Sugar coalition pushes back on new tariffs

Food manufacturers and consumer groups tell USTR additional Section 301 duties on sugar imports would raise grocery costs and undermine recent congressional reforms 

A coalition of food companies, trade associations, consumer groups, and free-market organizations is urging the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative to reject calls for additional Section 301 tariffs on imported sugar, arguing the current U.S. sugar program already heavily protects domestic producers and that new duties would increase costs for manufacturers and consumers.

In a May 22 letter (link) to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, the Alliance for Fair Sugar Policy criticized testimony submitted earlier this month by the American Sugar Alliance during USTR’s Section 301 hearings on global manufacturing overcapacity. The coalition said the U.S. sugar market is already governed by “tight restrictions on imported sugar” through tariff-rate quotas (TRQs), high over-quota tariffs, supply agreements with Mexico, and domestic production controls.

The letter was signed by a broad range of organizations, including the American Bakers Association, National Confectioners Association, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Consumer Federation of America, and the National Taxpayers Union.

The coalition argued that imposing additional tariffs on over-quota sugar imports would “simply increase the price of sugar for American food manufacturers and therefore drive food costs upward.” The group also said such a move would conflict with reforms included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which sought to improve sugar supply availability and quota administration.

The need for imports. AFSP said annual U.S. sugar demand totals roughly 12 million short tons, raw value, while domestic production averages closer to 9 million short tons, leaving the United States structurally dependent on imports to meet demand. The coalition contended that additional tariffs would not reduce that dependence but instead would restrict supplies needed by food manufacturers.

The letter also disputed arguments that rising volumes of “high tier” sugar imports demonstrate weakness in current tariff authorities. Instead, AFSP said those imports reflect supply shortages caused by domestic production limits and quota restrictions, forcing manufacturers to pay already steep over-quota duties to secure enough sugar supplies.

Meanwhile, the coalition pointed to recent OBBBA reforms intended to modernize sugar program administration, including provisions aimed at reallocating unused TRQ volumes more quickly. AFSP said USDA has not yet fully implemented those reforms and argued that expanding sugar availability — rather than layering on additional tariffs — aligns more closely with congressional intent.

The coalition warned that additional tariffs would ripple through grocery aisles because sugar is a key ingredient in products such as baked goods, cereals, snacks, peanut butter, and dairy products. The letter said higher input costs would weaken the competitiveness of U.S. food manufacturers relative to foreign rivals while raising prices for consumers.

AFSP also argued sugar should be treated similarly to other essential agricultural inputs that have received tariff exemptions when domestic production cannot fully meet demand. The group further noted that domestic sugar producers already have access to anti-dumping and countervailing duty laws to challenge unfair foreign trade practices, including past cases involving Mexico.

As an alternative, the coalition recommended fully implementing the OBBBA sugar reforms and increasing the raw sugar TRQ enough to achieve a 13.5% stocks-to-use ratio when combined with domestic production and Mexican imports. AFSP said that approach would help stabilize supplies and reduce reliance on high-tier imports over time.

— DOT extends fertilizer hauling hours waiver through 2026

FMCSA grants seasonal relief in 35 states after industry request, easing delivery pressures during peak fertilizer demand periods

The Transportation Department on Tuesday approved a broad hours-of-service waiver for fertilizer haulers through the remainder of 2026, giving trucking companies additional flexibility during peak application and delivery seasons.

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) said the waiver applies to drivers transporting straight or blended fertilizer products in 35 states after a request from The Fertilizer Institute. The exemption temporarily relaxes certain federal driving-time restrictions that normally govern how long commercial truck drivers can remain on duty before mandatory rest periods.

Industry groups argued that fertilizer demand surges during narrow planting and application windows can create major transportation bottlenecks, particularly in spring and fall. The waiver is intended to help retailers, cooperatives and distributors move products more quickly to farms during those critical periods.

The move comes as the agricultural supply chain continues to face logistical pressures tied to weather variability, shifting planting patterns and periodic transportation disruptions. Fertilizer dealers have long argued that strict hours-of-service requirements can hamper timely deliveries when producers are racing to apply nutrients ahead of rain events or during compressed planting schedules.

FMCSA typically issues such waivers on a seasonal or emergency basis, but the latest action extends the flexibility through the end of next year. 

Of note: The exemption applies only to drivers hauling fertilizer and does not remove requirements related to safe vehicle operation, drug and alcohol testing, or commercial driver licensing standards.

The Fertilizer Institute praised the decision, noting the move will help keep nutrients flowing to farms during a critical stretch of the growing season. TFI President and CEO Corey Rosenbusch thanked USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy for supporting the exemption, saying fertilizer application windows remain narrow as spring planting advances across much of the country.

Rosenbusch said expanding transportation flexibility could ease logistical strain and help prevent fertilizer supply bottlenecks as the industry moves from spring applications into summer and fall fill periods. He noted that fertilizer often relies on trucking for the final stage of delivery to farms, even when other transportation modes are used earlier in the supply chain.

TFI said it had raised the waiver request earlier this month in a letter to the White House to improve supply chain efficiency during the busy application season. Rosenbusch argued the exemption would help prevent fertilizer from becoming delayed at distribution hubs or retail facilities.

The waiver took effect May 26 and remains in place through Aug. 26, 2026. TFI emphasized that the fertilizer industry still intends to maintain strong transportation safety standards while ensuring farmers receive nutrients “exactly when and where they are needed.”

Supporters say the waiver should help reduce delivery delays and improve product availability during high-demand periods, particularly across major Corn Belt and Plains states where fertilizer applications intensify during planting and sidedress seasons. Critics of repeated hours-of-service exemptions, however, have previously raised concerns about driver fatigue and highway safety risks associated with longer work periods.

— China signals urea export return

Reuters reports Beijing has issued export quotas as global buyers, including India, seek relief from tight fertilizer supplies tied to Middle East disruptions

China has issued export quotas for urea fertilizer, according to Reuters, citing sources with direct knowledge of the matter, a move that could ease pressure on global nitrogen fertilizer markets after months of tight supplies and elevated prices.

Reuters reported that two Chinese exporters confirmed they had received export quotas, although they did not disclose volumes or timing. Other sources told the news service the total quota could amount to roughly 1.5 million metric tons. China’s General Administration of Customs and the National Development Reform Commission did not publicly confirm the development.

The potential return of Chinese urea exports is significant for global fertilizer markets because China is one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of nitrogen fertilizer. Beijing had largely restricted exports in recent years to prioritize domestic supply stability and control food inflation.

China’s domestic urea prices currently sit below international levels, making Chinese product attractive to major importers. India, one of the world’s largest urea buyers, has been seeking additional supplies as fertilizer markets remain sensitive to disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict and shipping constraints through the Strait of Hormuz.

Bloomberg reported in March that India asked China to permit some urea cargo sales following the outbreak of the Middle East war, which heightened concerns over global fertilizer logistics and natural gas-linked production costs.

A resumption of Chinese exports could pressure global urea prices lower and provide some relief to importing countries facing higher input costs ahead of key planting seasons. Meanwhile, traders will closely watch whether Beijing formally expands quotas or keeps exports tightly controlled to avoid domestic price spikes. Rumors suggest China could export around 1.5 MMT of urea, providing a key supply bridge for farmers in Australia and South America ahead of upcoming crop planting. China exported roughly 4.9 MMT of urea in 2025.

— Fertilizer consolidation draws renewed scrutiny amid supply risks

Farmdoc Daily authors say concentrated nitrogen fertilizer industry could amplify pricing power and limit future production expansion

Authors Henrique Monaco, Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, and Carl Zulauf wrote in a new farmdoc Daily analysis (link) that renewed geopolitical tensions involving Iran are again highlighting the concentrated structure of the U.S. fertilizer industry and the potential pricing implications for farmers. The authors noted that domestic fertilizer production capacity is controlled by a relatively small group of manufacturers, with current Department of Justice guidelines classifying the nitrogen fertilizer sector as “highly concentrated.”

The report found that the top four nitrogen fertilizer manufacturers controlled 70% of U.S. ammonia production capacity in 2023, up from 50% in 2000. CF Industries alone accounted for 39% of domestic production capacity, followed by Nutrien at 16%. Meanwhile, the number of ammonia plants declined from 46 to 33 over the same period. 

The authors calculated the industry’s Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) at 0.201, or 2,010 points, in 2023 — above the DOJ and FTC’s current threshold for a highly concentrated industry. However, they noted the sector would have been classified only as “moderately concentrated” under older federal guidelines. 

The analysis also stressed that consolidation trends extend beyond nitrogen into phosphate and potash markets. Two companies — Nutrien and Mosaic — control more than 89% of North American potash production capacity, according to the report. 

The authors argued consolidation is a common outcome in mature commodity industries, but warned that concentrated ownership can create market power over farmers and potentially discourage additional production investment. They added that environmental regulations, safety requirements, and barriers to entry could further reinforce the dominance of large incumbent firms.

The report said policymakers have discussed possible responses ranging from greater fertilizer price transparency and reduced trade barriers to formal USDA studies and potential Department of Justice investigations. However, the authors cautioned that any policy changes would likely take years to implement and their impacts on fertilizer prices remain uncertain.

— Brazil fertilizer deals seen rebounding amid supply security push

Middle East disruptions and Brazil’s heavy import dependence are driving renewed interest in fertilizer-sector consolidation and domestic investment 

Brazil’s fertilizer sector could see a rebound in mergers and acquisitions activity in 2026 as geopolitical disruptions and supply-security concerns push companies and policymakers to strengthen domestic production capacity, according to a KPMG survey reported by Globo Rural. Fertilizer-sector deals fell 44% in 2025, while sugar-and-ethanol transactions also declined sharply as high capital costs, weak agribusiness margins, and tighter credit conditions weighed on investment appetite.

KPMG agribusiness partner Giovana Araújo said the conflict-related disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz underscored Brazil’s vulnerability due to its heavy reliance on imported fertilizer inputs. Brazil imported 93% of its fertilizer needs in 2025, according to the Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA), making supply security an increasingly important strategic concern.

Petrobras reportedly has restarted investments in nitrogen fertilizer production while domestic and international firms are increasing investments in potash, phosphate, and fertilizer infrastructure projects, often with support from Brazil’s development bank, BNDES. Araújo said future dealmaking could be driven not only by consolidation, but also by vertical integration and efforts to reduce exposure to geopolitical risks.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s fertilizer import bill continues to rise. CNA data showed nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer imports fell 4% year-over-year in the first four months of 2026, but total spending climbed 16% to $4.3 billion because of higher logistics costs and the impact of the Iran conflict.

In the sugar-and-ethanol sector, KPMG said consolidation is likely to remain selective, although long-term drivers tied to bioenergy, decarbonization, and operational efficiency could support future investment. 

The consultancy also observed that recent transactions across both sectors have shifted toward smaller strategic acquisitions, restructurings, and technology-focused partnerships rather than large transformational deals.

— Wednesday: Oil slides on Iran deal hopes

Brent crude falls nearly 3% as markets weigh prospects for a U.S./Iran agreement and limited tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz

Brent crude futures fell about 3% Wednesday to roughly $96.60 per barrel, hovering near a five-week low, as traders grew more optimistic that the U.S. and Iran could still reach a diplomatic agreement despite continued military clashes around the Strait of Hormuz. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a potential deal could still take several days to finalize, helping ease fears of a prolonged disruption to global energy supplies.

Meanwhile, tensions in the region remained elevated. U.S. forces reportedly struck targets near the strait, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed it fired on multiple U.S. aircraft entering Iranian airspace. The Strait of Hormuz — which typically handles about 20% of global oil and LNG shipments — remains effectively closed due to blockades and military activity by both sides.

Still, markets took some comfort from signs that limited energy flows may be resuming after two non-Iranian supertankers successfully exited the chokepoint Tuesday, marking the first notable movement of unrestricted crude cargoes in roughly a week.

— Tuesday: Oil prices surge as U.S. strikes in Iran rattle markets

Renewed military tensions and continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz revive fears over global energy supplies and inflation pressures

Oil markets turned sharply higher Tuesday after renewed U.S. military strikes in Iran dashed hopes for a near-term diplomatic breakthrough that could have reopened the Strait of Hormuz and eased pressure on global energy supplies.

Global benchmark Brent crude rose $3.44, or 3.6%, to settle at $99.58 per barrel. 

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $93.89 per barrel. 

Traders reacted to escalating tensions after Iran accused Washington of violating a fragile ceasefire by conducting strikes in Iran’s southern Hormozgan province. The latest flare-up came as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said negotiations toward a broader agreement with Tehran could still take several more days, underscoring continued uncertainty surrounding diplomatic efforts.

Markets remain intensely focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows. Iran has largely restricted non-Iranian shipping traffic through the strait since fighting began in late February, creating ongoing fears of supply shortages and logistical disruptions across global energy markets.

Despite the restrictions, some shipping activity has resumed in recent days. Tankers carrying LNG to Pakistan, China, and India reportedly transited the waterway, while a supertanker loaded with Iraqi crude successfully departed the Gulf for China after being stranded for months.

Analysts said traders remain highly reactive to any signals tied to ceasefire negotiations, military activity, or shipping disruptions. Markets are still awaiting more clarity on a possible agreement while renewed Middle East tensions continue to support prices amid restricted flows through Hormuz.

The U.S. strikes coincided with talks in Doha between Iranian officials and Qatari mediators aimed at advancing a temporary framework that could reduce hostilities, partially reopen shipping lanes, and create space for broader negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

Meanwhile, maritime security risks remain elevated throughout the region. United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported that a tanker near Oman experienced an external explosion near the vessel’s waterline, highlighting persistent threats to commercial shipping.

The renewed volatility in energy markets is also intensifying broader macroeconomic concerns. Higher crude prices threaten to add fresh inflationary pressure globally, complicating the outlook for central banks already balancing slowing growth risks with elevated consumer prices.

— Greer again floats reuse of Section 122 tariffs

USTR chief suggests temporary tariffs could be reimposed after July expiration as broader trade probes continue

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer signaled the Trump administration may consider reimposing Section 122 tariffs after their scheduled July 24 expiration, raising fresh questions about the durability of the administration’s post-IEEPA tariff strategy.

Speaking at a Council on Foreign Relations event in Washington, Greer noted that Section 122 tariffs are statutorily limited to 150 days, but argued the law does not explicitly prohibit the administration from using the authority again. “When you look at that statute, it says they expire,” Greer said. “But it doesn’t say when you can redo it.”

The comments come as the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative continues Section 301 investigations tied to forced labor and global industrial overcapacity. USTR previously indicated those probes could be completed before the Section 122 tariffs expire, but Greer’s remarks now suggest the administration may either need additional time or could use Section 122 as a bridge mechanism for countries not ultimately covered by the Section 301 cases.

Greer acknowledged the legal ambiguity surrounding repeated use of Section 122 authority, which is intended to address balance-of-payments concerns. “I can’t imagine that Congress would say this is just once per term,” he said, while also conceding there is “some tension” between the temporary nature of the statute and the possibility of reusing it.

The Section 122 tariffs were imposed in late February after the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated the administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, as a tariff authority. Since then, trade lawyers and industry groups have speculated the administration could attempt to cycle or reimpose the tariffs if broader trade actions were not ready before the July deadline.

— CBP processes $20 billion in tariff refunds as broader repayment effort expands

Agency says more than $85 billion in potential and certified refunds are now in the pipeline following court-ordered reversal of IEEPA tariffs

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has processed more than $20 billion in tariff refunds tied to overturned International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) duties, while preparing to handle tens of billions more as the government works through a massive court-ordered repayment effort.

In a May 26 status report (link) filed with the U.S. Court of International Trade, CBP trade official Brandon Lord said the agency had sent roughly $20.6 billion in refunds, including interest, to the Treasury Department for disbursement as of May 22. The refunds stem from the reversal of IEEPA tariffs that were previously ruled unlawful.

The filing was submitted to Judge Richard Eaton, who ordered CBP to repay more than $165 billion in collected duties. According to the declaration, approximately $85 billion in “potential and certified refunds” has already been accepted into CBP’s Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) system for processing.

CBP said it has completed the liquidation or reliquidation of more than 8.5 million import entries without the tariffs, a key administrative step required before Treasury can issue repayments to importers and customs brokers through automated clearing house transactions. That total represents roughly half of the nearly 15.9 million entries that have passed validation checks and qualified for tariff removal through CAPE.

The agency’s latest figures show only modest progress since its May 11 update, when CBP reported approximately 8.3 million entries had been liquidated or reliquidated.

Lord also acknowledged that CBP previously overstated projected refund obligations by about $10 billion because of a data-query error. Earlier estimates indicated that refunds and interest tied to the processed entries totaled about $35.46 billion, but CBP now says the correct figure should have been closer to $25.46 billion.

The agency emphasized that the error was related to internal calculations rather than flaws in the CAPE refund system itself.

CBP estimates the government could ultimately repay duties on roughly 53 million import entries, with total refunds expected to exceed $165 billion once interest costs are included. However, the agency warned that the current “phase one” version of CAPE can process only about 63% of affected entries. More advanced system upgrades will be needed to address complicated cases involving antidumping and countervailing duties.

— House GOP targets Mexico VAT policy ahead of USMCA review

Lawmakers argue Mexico’s 16% VAT on some U.S. agricultural products acts as a “de facto tariff” that violates national treatment rules under the trade pact

A group of 20 House Republicans is pressing the Trump administration to challenge what they describe as Mexico’s improper application of a 16% value-added tax (VAT) on certain U.S. exports during the upcoming review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

In a May 22 letter (link) to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the lawmakers said Mexico’s tax authority, SAT, is imposing new interpretations and documentation requirements on products including animal protein meals and feed additives that previously qualified for VAT exemptions. The lawmakers argued the policy is undermining the USMCA’s national treatment provisions because comparable Mexican products are not facing the same tax burden.

The letter , led by House Ways & Means Trade Subcommittee Chair Adrian Smith (R-Mo.), said some U.S. exporters are facing retroactive audits, repayment demands, denied deductions and other penalties tied to the VAT dispute. The lawmakers contended Mexico is effectively using the tax policy to raise revenue at the expense of U.S. exporters and warned the move is making American agricultural ingredients less competitive in the Mexican market.

Republicans said the issue should become a priority during the inaugural USMCA review process, which formally begins July 1. The dispute adds to a growing list of agricultural trade irritants between Washington and Mexico ahead of the review negotiations.

Industry groups have raised similar concerns in recent months. During USTR hearings last December, the North American Renderers Association  (NAR) argued the VAT effectively operates as a tariff on U.S. exports used in pet food and biofuels production. NARA’s Dana Johnson Downing told USTR officials the tax “undermines the spirit and letter of the USMCA” and harms both U.S. exporters and Mexican buyers operating on thin margins.

The VAT issue is expected to surface as U.S. and Mexican officials begin their first formal negotiating round tied to the broader USMCA review process this week.

— China industrial profits surge on AI, energy demand

Manufacturing and mining earnings accelerated sharply as AI-linked sectors and higher oil prices boosted margins amid Middle East tensions 

China’s industrial profits rose 18.2% year-over-year in the January-April 2026 period, accelerating from a 15.5% increase in the first quarter as strong AI-related demand and higher global energy prices lifted earnings across key sectors. April profits alone jumped 24.7% from a year earlier — the strongest monthly gain since November 2023 — following a 15.8% rise in March.

Manufacturing remained the primary growth engine, with profits climbing 20.4%, while mining profits surged 26.0% as elevated oil and commodity prices tied to the Middle East conflict supported margins. Utilities, however, saw profits fall 1.9%.

Technology-related industries posted some of the strongest gains. Profits in computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing more than doubled, rising 107.7%, reflecting continued investment tied to artificial intelligence and advanced computing demand. Non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing profits jumped 117.8%, underscoring robust industrial materials demand.

By ownership type, state-owned enterprises posted a 17.1% increase in profits to CNY (Chinese yuan) 827.15 billion, while joint-stock companies saw profits surge 24.0% to CNY 1.88 trillion. Private-sector firms remained a major contributor to overall growth, although profit gains moderated slightly to 23.7% from 25.4% in the first quarter, reaching CNY 651.14 billion.

— OPM floats NDA requirement for federal workers

Proposal draws sharp union pushback over transparency and whistleblower concerns

The Trump administration is facing immediate backlash after the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) published a proposal seeking public comment on whether federal employees should be required to sign non-disclosure agreements, or NDAs, as a condition of employment.

According to the notice (link), OPM said the proposal is being driven by “several recent instances in which internal agency communications related to rulemaking and policy development were disclosed without authorization.” 

The agency suggested stronger confidentiality requirements could help protect sensitive deliberations inside the federal government and prevent leaks involving policy discussions before official decisions are finalized.

The proposal immediately triggered criticism from organized labor and government accountability advocates, who warned the move could chill whistleblower activity and weaken transparency across federal agencies. The nation’s largest federal employee union argued that requiring NDAs could intimidate workers from reporting misconduct, waste, fraud, or political interference inside agencies.

Critics are also expected to scrutinize how such agreements would interact with existing federal whistleblower protections and statutes governing disclosure of government information. Current law already restricts employees from improperly sharing classified or protected information, while also safeguarding lawful disclosures to inspectors general, Congress, and oversight authorities.

The proposal comes amid broader Trump administration efforts to tighten control over the federal workforce and reduce unauthorized leaks from agencies. Administration officials have repeatedly argued that internal disclosures have undermined policymaking and damaged trust within departments handling politically sensitive regulatory and enforcement decisions.

Federal employee advocates, however, contend the administration is moving toward a more centralized and restrictive personnel structure that could discourage dissent and internal debate. Labor groups are expected to submit formal comments opposing any requirement that could be interpreted as limiting protected communications with Congress, unions, inspectors general, or the media.

The issue could become particularly contentious on Capitol Hill, where lawmakers in both parties have historically defended federal whistleblower protections even while criticizing unauthorized leaks of sensitive information.

— Thompson unveils H-2A expansion draft

Proposal would broaden access for year-round agriculture operations and revise wage, housing and recruitment rules

According to Politico, House Ag Chair GT Thompson (R-Pa.) is circulating a draft bill that would significantly expand the H-2A agricultural guest worker program, a long-sought priority for farm groups facing persistent labor shortages and tighter immigration enforcement under President Donald Trump.

One of the most consequential provisions would redefine “temporary” agricultural work to include contracts lasting fewer than 350 days, regardless of whether the job itself is year-round. That change would effectively open the H-2A program to dairy operations and other sectors previously excluded because they require labor throughout the year.

A House Ag Committee aide told Politico the proposal emerged from extensive stakeholder meetings and the committee’s Agricultural Labor Working Group process, arguing that “arbitrary interpretations” of existing law have prevented large segments of agriculture from accessing the program.

The draft also includes several provisions aimed at lowering costs and streamlining recruitment for employers. It would permit employers to deduct housing charges from worker wages and would revise the Adverse Effect Wage Rate (AEWR) system by setting entry-level pay at the 17th percentile of comparable state wages. The legislation would also cap how sharply AEWRs could increase from year to year, addressing a major concern among growers who argue labor costs have risen too rapidly.

Additional changes would waive in-person interview requirements for returning H-2A workers, require the Department of Labor to maintain a public online recruitment registry, and shift petition approval authority from the attorney general to the Department of Homeland Security secretary.

The proposal is likely to draw support from major agricultural organizations that have pushed for broader H-2A eligibility and more predictable wage rules. However, labor advocates are expected to criticize provisions allowing housing deductions and lower wage benchmarks, arguing they could weaken protections for both domestic and foreign farmworkers.

— Courts, GOP lawmakers slow new redistricting pushes

Alabama map heads back to the Supreme Court while South Carolina Republicans resist a Trump-backed effort to redraw districts before the 2026 elections.

Republican-led efforts to redraw congressional maps ahead of the 2026 midterms ran into significant resistance Tuesday as courts and state lawmakers pushed back against aggressive GOP redistricting plans in Alabama and South Carolina.

In Alabama, a three-judge federal panel blocked a Republican-backed congressional map that would have effectively eliminated one of the state’s two majority-Black districts. The panel — including two judges appointed by President Donald Trump — said the plan appeared designed “to dilute minority votes with a veneer of legislative regularity.” Alabama officials quickly appealed the ruling to the Supreme Court, extending a years-long legal fight over compliance with the Voting Rights Act. The dispute centers on whether Alabama must preserve two districts in which Black voters have a meaningful opportunity to elect candidates of their choice. The Supreme Court previously ruled against Alabama in a landmark 2023 decision requiring a second majority-Black district.

Meanwhile, in South Carolina, the state Senate again rejected a White House-backed push to redraw congressional lines to create an additional Republican-leaning seat. Twelve Republicans joined Democrats in opposing the proposal, effectively delaying the issue until the next legislative session and resisting pressure from President Trump and his allies to target the district held by Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.). State Sen. Richard Cash (R-S.C.), one of the chamber’s most conservative members, said lawmakers should not intervene while election preparations are already underway. “Neither my conscience nor my common sense will allow me to stop an election underway,” Cash said during debate on the measure.

Republicans did notch victories elsewhere. In Tennessee, a federal judge declined to block the state’s new congressional map, which maintains a nine-seat Republican delegation and no Democratic-held districts. Separately, a Florida circuit judge rejected a challenge to that state’s GOP-favored map, ruling challengers failed to provide sufficient evidence of unconstitutional partisan intent. Judges in both Tennessee and Florida cited concerns about election disruption and voter confusion ahead of August primaries as factors weighing against late-stage judicial intervention.

— NWS outlook: Rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms continue for much of the Southern U.S. through late week… …Unsettled weather lingers across parts of the West as a slow-moving Pacific low spins over California and the Great Basin… …Summerlike heat persists for the northern Plains and Upper Midwest with widespread high temperatures well into the 80s and 90s. 

— Omega block to ease as Corn Belt rain chances return

Extended dry spell accelerates planting and crop development, but relief is expected in early June as the blocking weather pattern weakens

An expansive omega block weather pattern is expected to keep nearly all of the Corn Belt — outside the far western edge — exceptionally dry through the next 10 days, allowing producers in the southeastern Corn Belt to wrap up the final stages of spring planting. However, the prolonged dryness is also expected to sharply deplete topsoil moisture across much of the region.

The biggest forecast shift is growing model agreement that the blocking pattern will begin breaking down early in Week Two, restoring near-normal precipitation chances across the Corn Belt during the 11–15-day period and providing needed relief for emerging crops.

Temperature patterns remain sharply divided across the country. The western Corn Belt and northern Plains are forecast to remain under intense heat, with temperatures running 10 to 20 degrees above normal through the end of May, accelerating crop development and drying soils further. 

Meanwhile, forecasters now expect a notable cooling trend to spread across the eastern Corn Belt and Mid-South during the June 2-5 timeframe.

Elsewhere, the Mid-South and Southeast are expected to remain locked in an exceptionally wet pattern over the next two weeks, with rainfall totals more than double normal levels. The heavy rains are likely to temporarily halt fieldwork but should provide meaningful long-term drought relief. At the same time, the Hard Red Winter wheat belt is forecast to receive widespread and consistent rainfall over the next 10 days, improving moisture supplies for developing summer crops and pasture conditions.