Wasserman Sees Democrats Favored for House, Senate Still a Republican Hold in 2026
Cook Political Report analyst tells cotton industry leaders that Trump’s weak approval ratings, economic concerns and turnout dynamics favor Democrats, but Senate geography and redistricting could limit GOP losses
VAIL, Colo. Speaking before the 89th Annual Cotton Warehouse Association of America meeting in Vail, Colorado, political analyst David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report painted a challenging political landscape for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterm elections, while arguing that structural advantages in the Senate and redistricting gains could prevent a complete Republican collapse.
Wasserman’s overarching assessment was that President Donald Trump’s declining approval ratings, voter concerns about the economy and healthcare, and a growing Democratic enthusiasm advantage have created a favorable environment for Democrats. However, he believes Republicans remain positioned to retain the Senate while Democrats are narrowly favored to reclaim the House.
Trump’s approval ratings and political risks
Wasserman opened with a stark assessment of Trump’s standing with voters, saying the Cook Political Report’s approval tracker shows the president at 39% approval and 59% disapproval. He argued that independent voters have become increasingly dissatisfied with Trump’s handling of several core promises made during the 2024 campaign.
According to Wasserman, voters elected Trump largely because they believed he would deliver an “economic golden age,” keep the United States out of foreign conflicts, and avoid major changes to entitlement programs. He contended that dissatisfaction on all three fronts has eroded support. “Independent voters have soured on his follow through on those three campaign promises,” Wasserman said.
He noted that Republican approval of Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict has weakened, particularly among the president’s most loyal supporters. While 81% of Republicans still approved of Trump’s overall job performance, only 62% approved of the military action in Iran. More concerning for Republicans, strong approval among GOP voters has fallen sharply.
“A year ago, 63% of Republicans strongly approved of the job that he was doing. Today, that’s fallen to 50%,” he said.
Iran conflict creates political headwinds
One of Wasserman’s strongest arguments centered on the political fallout from the administration’s actions toward Iran.
Rather than generating a traditional “rally-around-the-flag” effect, he argued that the conflict has become a liability for the White House. He cited polling showing only 33% of voters supported military action against Iran before U.S. involvement, while 49% opposed it. Additionally, 66% said the administration had not clearly explained its objectives.
Wasserman suggested that the conflict has fractured portions of the MAGA coalition, including influential conservative media personalities and online commentators who were instrumental in mobilizing less-frequent Republican voters in 2024.
For agriculture and rural America, the significance of the Iran issue goes beyond foreign policy. Wasserman repeatedly connected the conflict to energy markets, inflation and consumer sentiment, arguing that rising fuel costs could become a decisive factor in the midterms.
The economy remains Republicans’ biggest vulnerability
Wasserman repeatedly returned to economic concerns as the central political issue facing Republicans.
He argued that Trump won reelection largely because voters remembered lower prices during his first term. However, he said Trump’s economic approval rating now trails his overall approval rating by roughly three points, the reverse of what occurred during Trump’s first administration. Consumer confidence, he noted, recently hit historic lows.
“The president and his party really live and die by voters’ mood on the cost of living,” Wasserman said.
He criticized the administration’s messaging strategy, arguing that voters are experiencing a disconnect between White House claims that conditions are improving and what they see in grocery stores and at gas stations.
Perhaps most notably, Wasserman identified reopening the Strait of Hormuz as the single most important economic variable affecting Republican prospects.
“There’s no substitute for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and that is the single biggest variable between now and November that I think could save Republicans control of both houses of Congress,” he said.
Healthcare provisions could become a Democratic weapon
Wasserman predicted Democrats will heavily target healthcare provisions contained in what he repeatedly called the “One Big Beautiful Bill.”
Although many Medicaid and SNAP changes would not take effect until 2027, he argued voters are already worried about future healthcare costs and reductions in federal support. Democrats, he said, are preparing to run a playbook similar to their successful attacks on Republican Obamacare repeal efforts in 2018.
His analysis suggests healthcare could become one of the most effective Democratic issues in suburban swing districts where moderate voters remain uneasy about entitlement changes.
Turnout advantage has shifted toward Democrats
A major theme throughout the presentation was what Wasserman described as a reversal of recent turnout dynamics.
Historically, Democrats benefited from high-turnout elections. However, he argued Trump changed that equation by attracting less-engaged voters who typically only participate in presidential elections.
With turnout expected to fall from approximately 157 million voters in 2024 to roughly 110 million to 120 million in 2026, Wasserman believes Democrats will regain a structural advantage.
“74% of Democrats say they’re extremely motivated to vote in 2026 versus 61% of Republicans,” he noted.
He pointed to recent gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, as well as special elections in heavily Republican districts, where Democratic candidates dramatically outperformed recent presidential benchmarks.
Senate outlook: Republicans still favored
Despite the favorable environment for Democrats, Wasserman believes Senate control remains difficult for Democrats because of geography.
With Republicans currently holding 53 seats, Democrats would need to gain four seats for a majority. Yet only a handful of genuinely competitive states are on the ballot.
He identified North Carolina as Democrats’ best pickup opportunity, praising former Gov. Roy Cooper’s candidacy. He also highlighted Ohio, where former Sen. Sherrod Brown is attempting a comeback, and Alaska, where former Rep. Mary Peltola is mounting a challenge.
Texas drew particular attention.
Wasserman estimated Democrat James Talarico has only a 25% to 30% chance of defeating Republican Sen. Ken Paxton, despite Democratic hopes that demographic shifts and dissatisfaction among some Republicans could tighten the race.
His bottom-line forecast was a 50-50 Senate split, leaving Vice President JD Vance with the tie-breaking vote. “I’d give them a 35 to 40% chance at controlling the Senate,” Wasserman said of Democrats.
According to Wasserman’s current Senate forecast, Democrats would gain three Republican-held seats but still fall short of winning the majority. His projected Democratic pickups are:North Carolina — Democrat Roy Cooper defeating Republican Michael Whatley. Wasserman called this Democrats’ “single best pickup opportunity in the country.” Maine — Democrat Graham Plattner defeating incumbent Sen. Susan Collins. Despite discussing Plattner’s controversies at length, Wasserman ultimately said he believes anti-Trump sentiment among Maine voters may be enough to carry the Democrat to victory. Ohio — Democrat Sherrod Brown defeating appointed Republican Sen. John Husted. Wasserman described Ohio as Democrats’ best opportunity among the states Trump carried by double digits in 2024. However, Wasserman projected Democrats would fall short in four key races:Texas — He gave Democrat James Talarico only about a 25% to 30% chance against Republican Ken Paxton. Iowa — He said the race is becoming more competitive but still leaned Republican. Alaska — He viewed Mary Peltola as competitive but still an underdog against Sen. Dan Sullivan. Georgia — He suggested incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff would likely hold his seat despite a competitive race. Wasserman summarized his Senate outlook this way:“I’m going to give North Carolina and Maine to the Democrats, and I’m going to give Ohio to the Democrats, but I think Iowa, Alaska and Texas Democrats fall short. We end up at a 50-50 Senate with JD Vance breaking a tie in Republicans’ favor.”So, in his current projection, Democrats gain North Carolina, Maine and Ohio, resulting in a 50-50 Senate, with Republicans retaining control because Vice President JD Vance would cast tie-breaking votes. |
House outlook: Democrats slightly favored
Wasserman was more bullish on Democratic prospects in the House.
While Republican-led redistricting efforts in Texas, Florida and parts of the South are likely to net five or six seats for Republicans, he believes the political environment remains favorable enough for Democrats to overcome those gains.
He said Democrats likely need to gain eight or nine Republican-held seats after accounting for redistricting changes. With 18 toss-up races nationwide, he sees enough opportunities in states such as Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Iowa to produce a Democratic majority.
“I still think Democrats win the House by a narrow margin,” he said.
Wasserman also highlighted an unusually large number of House retirements, including a record 39 Republican departures, creating additional uncertainty.
Agriculture’s representation in Congress
One observation that resonated with the cotton industry audience was Wasserman’s concern about declining agricultural representation among Democrats.
He noted that Democrats have relatively few members from rural districts and agricultural states compared to previous decades. “Democrats really don’t have a bench anymore from farm country or farm states or districts,” he said.
He pointed out that if Democrats were to regain control of the Senate, Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) could become chairman of the Senate Ag Committee despite being a vegan, illustrating how much the party’s geographic base has shifted toward urban and suburban areas.
For agricultural interests, that observation may prove particularly relevant as Congress debates future farm bills, conservation programs, trade policy and commodity support programs.
Data centers, land use and rural politics
One emerging issue Wasserman highlighted was rural opposition to artificial intelligence data centers. He cited polling showing roughly seven in ten Americans oppose local construction of AI data centers and suggested that land-use concerns could become a major issue in future gubernatorial and state-level races.
For rural communities, including many cotton-producing regions, the debate over farmland conversion, power consumption and economic development tied to AI infrastructure could become a significant political issue heading toward 2028.
Looking ahead to 2028
While emphasizing the unpredictability of presidential politics, Wasserman suggested the Democratic nomination battle could become one of the most crowded in modern history.
He expressed skepticism about California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s strength despite his high profile and argued candidates with experience winning in purple states — such as Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear — may ultimately have stronger general-election appeal.
On the Republican side, Wasserman believes Trump’s endorsement will largely determine the nominee. “I think as long as the president endorses a successor, there won’t be a meaningful Republican primary,” he said. He expects Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to remain the leading contenders for Trump’s backing.
| Wasserman: AOC Emerging as a Major Democratic Force for 2028Cook Political Report analyst says Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could shape the next Democratic presidential race — even if she doesn’t run VAIL, Colo. — While much of David Wasserman’s presentation focused on the 2026 midterm elections, the Cook Political Report analyst also offered an intriguing look ahead to the 2028 presidential contest, singling out Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as one of the Democratic Party’s most influential rising figures. Speaking at the 89th Annual Cotton Warehouse Association of America meeting in Vail, Wasserman argued that Ocasio-Cortez currently enjoys the strongest standing among Democratic activists and voters considering potential White House contenders. According to Wasserman, AOC holds the highest net favorability rating among Democrats at plus-61, roughly 10 points higher than former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Wasserman said he recently met with Ocasio-Cortez and came away convinced that she is considering a move beyond the House of Representatives in 2028. “She was pretty clear that she was going to run for something in 2028 that’s not in the House,” Wasserman told attendees. Despite her growing popularity, Wasserman suggested that a Senate campaign may be more likely than a presidential bid. He recounted attending an event where audience members reacted enthusiastically to the prospect of Ocasio-Cortez seeking higher office, but support was even stronger when the possibility of challenging Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) was raised. “The cheers were twice as loud, because that’s how much Democrats hate Chuck Schumer right now,” Wasserman said. Wasserman noted that if Ocasio-Cortez chooses not to enter the presidential race, she would leave a significant void on the party’s progressive flank. He described her as the dominant figure in what remains the party’s “Bernie wing,” a reference to supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders. “If she does not run, there would be a vacuum in the Bernie wing of the party,” he said. He suggested that Rep. Ro Khanna could attempt to fill that role but questioned whether Khanna possesses the same political charisma and social media reach that have made Ocasio-Cortez a national figure. Wasserman’s broader point was that Democratic politics may be moving in a more progressive direction than many establishment leaders realize. Recent primary victories by left-leaning candidates and Ocasio-Cortez’s popularity among Democratic voters indicate that the party’s activist base remains highly influential. Meanwhile, Wasserman cautioned against assuming that current front-runners will ultimately capture the nomination. He noted that many political observers failed to anticipate President Donald Trump’s rise in 2016, arguing that presidential primaries often reward candidates with intensely loyal followings rather than the highest name recognition. Whether Ocasio-Cortez ultimately runs for Senate, president, or another office, Wasserman made clear that he views her as one of the most consequential Democratic figures to watch as the party begins positioning itself for the post-Trump era. |
Bottom line: Wasserman’s presentation offered a nuanced view of the 2026 landscape. While Trump’s weak approval ratings, economic concerns, healthcare issues and Democratic enthusiasm point toward significant Republican losses, he argued that Senate geography, redistricting gains and Republican financial advantages will likely prevent a repeat of the 2018 Democratic wave.
His current forecast: Democrats narrowly recapture the House, Republicans narrowly retain the Senate, and the battle for control of Congress remains heavily dependent on inflation, energy prices and whether the administration can improve voter perceptions on the economy before Election Day.
