Week Ahead: Farm Bill Markup Thursday, SRE Waivers Monday — the Senate’s Last Week Is Loaded

The Senate Ag Committee marks up Farm Bill 2.0 Thursday with the vote count still unproven, EPA faces a court-ordered Monday deadline on refinery exemptions, a Teamsters vote could end the 70-day Cargill lockout, and bond traders spend the week sizing up Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh ahead of Friday’s jobs report — all after President Trump called off strikes on Iran, again, citing a possible deal.
 

Week of Aug. 3-7, 2026|Policy schedules and company calendars
 

Congress: one chamber, one week

The House left for its August recess a week ago Thursday and does not return until Aug. 31 — four more weeks away. The Senate is in session, but this is its own last week before the break, and the difference between the two absences matters: nothing can reach the president’s desk with one chamber gone, but what the Senate Ag Committee reports — or fails to report — this week will survive the recess and define the September agenda. When both chambers return, they will face a Sept. 30 collision of deadlines: the farm bill extension expires, government funding runs out, and the $12 billion farmer-aid reconciliation package remains parked behind the shutdown fight.

The rest of the Senate week is workmanlike. Hearings on Medicaid, biotechnology in health care and prescription-drug costs fill Tuesday; Senate Finance takes up Social Security solvency Wednesday; Banking examines access to capital Thursday. None of it moves agriculture. The farm policy story runs through one committee room on Thursday morning — and through an EPA docket on Monday.

Farm Bill 2.0: the markup is Thursday; the deal arrives first

Boozman released the revised text of Farm Bill 2.0 — the Agricultural Act of 2026 — late Friday, July 31, and scheduled the committee markup for Thursday, Aug. 6. The rewrite makes two late bets. First, a SNAP truce: the state cost-share regime enacted in last year’s reconciliation law is delayed one year, to fiscal 2029, in exchange for a tougher 20% penalty tier beginning in fiscal 2031 for states with payment error rates of 10% or more. Second, an E15 graft: Section 12501 permanently authorizes nationwide year-round E15 sales and winds down the small refinery exemption petition system after 2027, replacing it with an automatic, production-based carve-out for qualifying refineries — paired with mandatory reallocation of exempted gallons above a 500-million-gallon cushion, a structure more favorable to ethanol demand than the House-passed bill’s no-reallocation approach.

The arithmetic is the story. With McConnell absent for medical reasons, the committee is deadlocked at 11 votes a side. Boozman cannot report the bill without at least one Democrat, and cannot pass it on the floor without seven. Ranking Member Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) has not yet responded formally to the updated text; her opening statement Thursday may be the first public tell of an in depth response. Democrats opened these talks demanding a two-year SNAP delay — roughly $12.5 billion by committee-staff estimates, against about $6 billion for the one year in the text — and the package still lacks an agreed offset for the concession it does make.

Watch the manager’s amendment, not the base text. The bundle of negotiated fixes and pre-cleared member amendments — customarily offered first and adopted en bloc by voice vote — typically lands a day before the gavel, sometimes just hours. It is where farm bill deals are sealed, votes are purchased line by line and unvetted provisions ride along. Expect it Aug. 5 or the morning of the markup, with the SNAP cost-share terms the most likely candidate for further adjustment if a deal with committee Democrats comes together.

Refinery exemptions: EPA’s Monday deadline

Early in the week — Monday, by the agency’s own July 28 court filing — EPA is due to announce decisions on the two remanded 2024 small refinery exemption petitions from Alon Refining Krotz Springs and HF Sinclair. The April 7 D.C. Circuit ruling that vacated the original denials settled eligibility and lowered the bar for every retroactive exemption request; what remains is the hardship judgment, where EPA’s own August 2025 template — 50% partial exemptions as the default when the Energy Department’s scoring split the difference — makes partial grants the path of least resistance. A fresh denial would invite another round in a courtroom that has repeatedly sided with refiners.

The gallons matter more than the two refineries. The March 27 final rule baked a 70% reallocation of 2023-25 exempted volumes into the 2026-27 blending mandates; exemptions granted now raise the question of whether newly waived 2024 gallons are ever made up or simply become lost ethanol and biodiesel demand — a fight headed for EPA’s pending supplemental SRE rulemaking, and one sharpened by record-high 2026 mandates that have driven the value of an exemption to unprecedented levels. And the timing is exquisite: the rulings land three days before a Senate markup that would retire the case-by-case petition era altogether.

Weekend news: Trump calls off Iran strikes — again

President Trump announced Saturday night that he has canceled a planned military attack on Iran, saying on Truth Social he agreed “to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.” The framework under negotiation centers on Iran immediately and completely reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending its nuclear program. The pullback followed a Saturday call in which Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urged restraint, with Qatar, the UAE, Turkey and Pakistan also pressing both sides toward de-escalation after Iran and regional partners said “the perimeters of a deal had been agreed to.”

The caveat is the track record. Trump has paused military action against Iran several times before — announcing restraint to pursue negotiations, then resuming strikes when diplomacy stalled. Markets have learned the cycle: crude enters the week carrying July’s 24% Brent surge to $90.12 and a 21% WTI gain to $84.67, a premium built on Hormuz transit restrictions, Red Sea rerouting and thin U.S. inventories. A credible, verifiable reopening of the strait would deflate that premium quickly; another collapsed framework would rebuild it just as fast. Either way, the diesel problem outlasts the headlines — refined-product supplies are expected to stay tight through the second half, keeping harvest season fuel and freight costs elevated for farmers, elevators and railroads even if crude retreats.

Meat: a ratification vote at Fort Morgan

Teamsters Local 455 votes early this week on the tentative agreement reached July 28 with Cargill covering more than 1,700 workers at the Fort Morgan, Colo., beef plant — an apparent breakthrough after a lockout that began May 20, when workers rejected the company’s “last, best and final” offer. Neither side has disclosed terms ahead of the vote. The rejected offer carried first-year wages of $24.20 to $32.10 an hour and roughly $33.4 million in value over five years; the union’s sticking points ran to larger wage increases, health-care coverage and workplace conditions. The plant slaughtered about 2,500 head per day before the lockout — meaningful capacity in a cattle market already historically tight — and Cargill has a $90 million yield-technology investment riding on the facility’s future. A ratification restores throughput in a beef complex where August live cattle just posted bullish weekly closes; a rejection would extend one of the sector’s longest labor standoffs in years. Tyson’s results Monday, meanwhile, offer the quarter’s broadest read on protein margins.

The Fed: bond traders size up Warsh

With the FOMC meeting last week, this week is the first clean look at how the bond market and the Federal Reserve’s own officials digest Kevin Warsh’s debut. Last Wednesday’s decision held rates at 3.50%-3.75% over three dissents in favor of an immediate quarter-point increase, and the new chairman’s press conference landed badly — “all hat, no cattle,” in Bank of America’s phrase — as traders read tough inflation talk unmatched by action. The 10-year Treasury yield closed the week at 4.743%, its highest since January 2025; the 30-year reached 5.274%, its highest since 2007; and futures price roughly 65% odds of a September increase, down from 82% a week earlier but climbing again into the weekend.

This week’s speakers frame what lies ahead. Governor Lisa Cook addresses the economic outlook in Anchorage Wednesday, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaks Thursday, Richmond’s Thomas Barkin follows Friday, and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman holds a fireside chat Saturday. Listen for whether the hawkish dissent bloc is growing and whether Warsh’s colleagues echo his warning that favorable inflation readings are not proof the battle is won. The strategic question is credibility: some analysts argue the Fed now needs a September hike to re-establish its inflation-fighting bona fides, while others expect a hold all year if disinflation proves durable. Friday’s July employment report — consensus near 83,000 jobs and 4.3% unemployment — is the week’s decisive data point. For agriculture, the stakes run through operating-loan costs, farmland values and the machinery decisions that hinge on where the rate path settles.

Trade: tariff clocks keep ticking

Trade stays unsettled in the background, with two clocks running. The threatened 50% tariff on Canadian products takes effect Aug. 19, and new U.S. tariffs on Brazilian goods keep South American retaliation risk alive for U.S. farm exports. Tuesday’s BEA international trade report gives the official June read on the deficit, and Thursday’s FAS export sales remain the high-frequency test of whether China’s commitments — including a reported 25-million-tonne annual target for U.S. soybeans — are converting into actual purchases; last week’s grain selloff came despite those pledges. Tuesday also brings a CSIS session on the Strait of Hormuz energy crisis, a useful frame for the shipping-risk premium that both the Iran diplomacy and the tariff fights feed.

Reports: jobs week, with the data load light until Friday

Monday: EPA’s ruling, crop conditions and a Tyson read

The EPA refinery-exemption decisions are due under the court clock. USDA’s weekly export inspections arrive at 11 a.m. ET ahead of the 4 p.m. Crop Progress report — the first national read on how crops fared through the weekend soaking, with a heat ridge rebuilding midweek. NASS releases its monthly processing block: Cotton System, Fats & Oils, Grain Crushings, Flour Milling and Honey Bee Colonies. The macro calendar opens with the ISM manufacturing index, final August PMI manufacturing and construction spending. Tyson Foods headlines earnings alongside CNH and Diamondback Energy — protein margins and farm-equipment demand in a single morning.

Tuesday: trade data and an ADM checkup

The BEA international trade report lands at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by factory orders and JOLTS job openings. Archer-Daniels-Midland reports results — the purest public read on global crush margins and grain-handling volumes amid the tariff noise — with BP, Marathon Petroleum and Devon Energy on the energy side. The API inventory report closes the day.

Wednesday: ethanol data, a Fed voice and fertilizer earnings

The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report — including weekly fuel ethanol production and stocks, the week’s most direct intersection of energy and corn demand — arrives at 10:30 a.m. ET, and NASS releases Broiler Hatchery. ADP private payrolls preview Friday’s jobs report; the ISM services index and final PMI composite fill out the morning. Cook speaks in Anchorage. CF Industries reports — the fertilizer-cost read for 2027 crop budgets — with Phillips 66, Suncor, EOG and Occidental framing refining and upstream margins. The Sweetener Symposium wraps in Vail; Soy Connext opens in Chicago.

Thursday: the markup, export sales and jobless claims

The Senate Ag Committee gavels in the Farm Bill 2.0 markup — the week’s main event. FAS Export Sales at 8:30 a.m. ET tests overseas demand and China’s follow-through; NASS releases Dairy Products and weekly slaughter. Jobless claims and productivity and costs carry the macro morning, Musalem speaks, EIA natural gas storage arrives, and NOAA updates its 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook. ConocoPhillips and Canadian Natural Resources lead energy earnings.

Friday: the jobs report

The July employment report at 8:30 a.m. ET is the week’s heaviest macro print — consensus near 83,000 payrolls and 4.3% unemployment, with September rate-hike odds hanging on the result. Barkin speaks, consumer credit follows in the afternoon, and NASS Peanut Prices is the lone USDA release. Baker Hughes rig counts and the CFTC Commitments of Traders report close the energy and positioning week; Bowman’s Saturday fireside chat provides the coda.

The conference circuit: sugar in the mountains, soy on the river

The American Sugar Alliance’s International Sweetener Symposium — “Navigating a Turbulent American Sugar Market” — continues in Vail, Colo., through Wednesday, Aug. 5, with Deputy Agriculture Secretary Stephen Vaden among the speakers. With the sugar program embedded in the farm bill text headed to markup the next morning, the Vail podium is the administration’s clearest scheduled opportunity to signal where USDA stands.

Soy Connext, the U.S. Soybean Export Council’s flagship global trade event, runs Wednesday through Friday at the Hyatt Regency Chicago, gathering more than 800 international buyers, sellers and growers of U.S. soy. The timing is pointed: the summit convenes days after soybeans posted a 66-cent weekly loss despite China’s purchase commitments, making the export-demand conversations on the sidelines as market-relevant as anything on the agenda.

Week at a glance

Scenario map: what could move agriculture most

What to watch first

The first priority is the manager’s amendment — its authorship before its contents. A joint Boozman/Klobuchar package, whenever it lands, all but announces the outcome of Thursday’s vote before the gavel falls. A chairman-only package means the SNAP truce did not buy what it was priced to buy, and the smart money shifts to a one-year extension. Everything else about the markup — amendment count, attendance, the E15 title’s survival — flows from that one signature question.

Second, read EPA’s Monday rulings for the reallocation signal, not the headline. Partial exemptions for Alon and HF Sinclair are broadly expected; what matters for corn demand is whether the agency addresses making the waived gallons up, and whether the language previews its posture in the supplemental SRE rulemaking. The answer will be quoted on both sides of Thursday’s markup debate.

Third, treat Friday’s jobs report as the Warsh referendum. The bond market spent last week telling the new chairman it doubts his resolve; this week his colleagues speak Wednesday through Saturday, and the July employment print either validates the 65% September-hike pricing or unwinds it. For farm balance sheets, the difference s