🌦️ Weather
- 🌧️ Brazil: Northern Brazil stays active through Tuesday — great for soybeans — with planting 43.6% complete in Mato Grosso and 23.3% nationwide, both well ahead of normal. A dry stretch starts Wednesday, lasting about a week, before rains return early November.
- 🌦️ Southern Brazil & Paraguay: Favorable soil moisture; dry through Friday for fieldwork, then 1–2” rain Oct 25–27.
- ☀️ Argentina: Dry until early Tuesday, then 1.5–2.5” widespread rain Tuesday–Friday before returning to light activity.
- 🇺🇸 U.S.: After weekend rain, Corn Belt mostly dry all week, ideal for harvest. A major storm Oct 26–29 may bring heavy rain and strong winds.
- 🌡️ Southern Plains: Dry until Thursday; then beneficial wheat rains (1+ inch) possible through Oct 28.
🌾 Grains
- 🌽 Corn gained 10¢ for the week, wheat +6–7¢, beans +12¢, meal +$6, oil +115 pts.
- ☔ Brazil’s weekend rains help short term, but drier trend midweek limits relief until November.
- 🌾 U.S. corn yields off 20–30% from earlier highs in parts of IA/WCB — possible national yield <180 bu/acre vs USDA’s 186.7.
- 💰 Corn demand steady; CIF basis firmer, farmers holding grain; U.S./Argentina remain cheapest exporters.
- 🇨🇳 Flood damage in China could raise import needs if trade tensions ease; U.S. export outlook not far off.
🐂 Livestock
- 📉 Cattle futures collapsed Friday — live down $4–7, feeders limit down $9.25 — after Trump’s comments about a “deal” to lower beef prices sparked panic selling.
- 🐮 Fears of imports or price controls crushed sentiment despite no policy details.
- 📊 Cash trade stayed $240–241, futures ignored it; open interest –5,000 contracts.
- ⚖️ Fundamentally, supplies remain tightest since 1950, but politics triggered the correction.
- 🚀 Today: expanded limits (live +$10.75 / feeder +$13.75) could widen volatility if no follow-up news emerges.
💰 Financials
- ⚠️ Regional bank stress back in focus after Zions’ $50M loan charge-off and Western Alliance fraud claims.
- 🏢 CRE exposure = 44% of regional bank portfolios vs 13% for large banks; office delinquencies 10.4%, near 2008 levels.
- 💣 Over $1T CRE debt due by year-end, creating a “maturity wall” in a high-rate environment.
- 🐜 JPM’s Dimon: “When you see one cockroach, there are probably more.”
- 🔍 Analysts warn “extend and pretend” restructurings may be failing to hide loan deterioration.
📅 Today’s Calendar (all times Central)
- Export Inspections – 10:00 AM
- Crop Progress – 3:00 PM
Tommy Grisafi
Nesvick Trading Group, LLC
424 Church Street, Suite 1330
Nashville, TN 37219
615-988-1882 (office)
219-477-9167 (cell)
Disclaimer : Futures trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone
