🌦️ Weather
- 🌧️ Brazil: Northern areas turn very dry for the next 10 days; limited to no rain until early November. Southern Brazil and Paraguay stay dry through Saturday, then turn wetter with near-to-above-normal rain in late October.
- ☔ Argentina: Widespread rains tonight–Friday (1.5–2.5″), then drier next week.
- 🇺🇸 U.S.: Corn Belt dry through the weekend, ideal for harvest; sub-freezing lows expected midweek. A major storm Oct 27–28 may bring strong winds and widespread rain.
- 🌡️ Southern Plains: Dry until Thursday, then rain chances return (2–4″ possible) for OK/TX/Mid-South.
🌾 Grains
- 🫘 Beans climbing on short covering and firm basis; China may still need 8–10 mmt for Dec/Jan slot.
- 🌽 Corn harvest 59% complete, beans 74%, wheat seeding 76%; all slightly behind last year.
- 🇧🇷 Brazil planting 23% done, well ahead of average; Mato Grosso driest start since 2015.
- 🇦🇷 Heavy rains this week improve Argentine moisture but unwanted in Buenos Aires.
- 🏛️ Gov’t shutdown persists—WASDE report at risk if no resolution soon.
🐂 Livestock
- 🇦🇷 Trump’s “beef deal” chatter continues—plan reportedly includes importing more beef from Argentina.
- ⚙️ Industry approval and inspection timelines mean 3–6 months before new Argentine supply could flow.
- 📊 Likely scenario: tariff cuts could double imports to ~30k MT, a mere 0.3% of U.S. production.
- ⚠️ Extreme scenario: removing quotas + diverting from China could lift imports 13x to 400k MT (6%), offsetting lost Brazilian supply.
- 🎯 Overall goal appears strategic leverage vs. China, not immediate U.S. price relief.
💰 Financials
- ⚡ AWS outage early Monday crippled thousands of sites; 90% of Fortune 500 rely on AWS.
- 🏦 Disruption caused billions in losses from halted logistics and productivity.
- 💻 Highlights risk of over-centralized cloud infrastructure — one outage cascades across entire sectors.
- 🔄 Points to need for decentralized backups and multi-cloud strategies to avoid single-point failures.
- 🧩 Lesson: convenience and efficiency bring systemic fragility in modern digital economies.
📅 Today’s Calendar (all times Central)
- Non-Manufacturing Activity Index – 7:30 AM
- CPI – 7:30 AM
Tommy Grisafi
Nesvick Trading Group, LLC
424 Church Street, Suite 1330
Nashville, TN 37219
615-988-1882 (office)
219-477-9167 (cell)
Disclaimer : Futures trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone
