U.S. Raising Tariff Rate Quota for Argentina to 80,000 MT Beef to Reduce Prices
Oil prices surge after U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top energy firms | Trump/USDA plan to rebuild U.S. cattle industry | Partial FSA reopening today | SNAP goes pop
Link: Trump Admin. Unveils Major Plan to Rebuild U.S. Cattle Herd, Lower Beef Prices
Link: USDA White Paper: Trump Admin.’s Plan to Fortify the American Beef Industry
Link: Trump Claims Tariffs Made Ranchers Prosper, but Economists Say
the Picture Is More Complex
Link: U.S. Software Export Curbs Could Ripple Through Farm Sector
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 17
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 17
Today’s Updates:
UP FRONT
— Oil jumps >5% on fresh Russia sanctions
— U.S. sanctions on Rosneft/Lukoil threaten India oil flows
— China confirms Malaysia trade talks with U.S.
— USDA unveils comprehensive cattle-industry rebuild plan
— Ag & cattle groups, Sen. Thune push back on Argentina beef deal
— USDA to reopen FSA offices; $3B in payments
— SNAP funding cliff looms amid shutdown
— U.S. debt tops $38T, fastest non-pandemic surge
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: mixed to softer on earnings misses
— Equities yesterday: major indexes lower
— Tesla profit drop despite record revenue
— Netflix sinks after miss, disclosure worries
— Gold ETFs see biggest outflow in five months
— Markets price sharp post-election Argentine peso devaluation
AG MARKETS
— Soybeans edge higher on Trump’s China-deal optimism
— Farm economy strains from tariffs, labor, rising debt
— Ag markets scoreboard (Oct. 22 closes)
FARM POLICY
— Marketing loan use minimal for corn & soybeans
USDA REORGANIZATION
— Klobuchar, Slotkin press USDA on animal-health risks
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil surges on U.S. sanctions; supply impact debated
— Oil rises on U.S. demand, falling inventories
TRADE POLICY
— Carney targets doubling Canada’s non-U.S. exports by 2035
— Supreme Court to weigh Trump’s universal-tariff authority
— Analyst: Canada’s playbook to blunt U.S. tariff pressure
CONGRESS
— Congress approval drops to 15% as Trump holds at 41%
POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— North Carolina GOP advances new U.S. House map
— Cornyn–Paxton deadlocked in Texas GOP Senate primary
— John Sununu launches 2026 New Hampshire Senate bid
TRANSPORTATION/LOGISTICS
— Chemical industry urges blocking UP/NS rail merger
WEATHER
— Record-costly start to 2025 U.S. climate disasters
— NWS: Heavy rain/severe storms South; PNW unsettled; Great Lakes
tapering showers
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Oct. 23, 2025
Up front•USDA beef expansion plan. USDA unveiled a plan to boost U.S. cattle production, expanding grazing access to federal lands and funding small processors. The plan enforces “Product of USA” label rules starting Jan. 1, 2026. •White House announces U.S. raising tariff rate quota for Argentina to 80,000 metric tons of beef to reduce prices. That is a small share of the roughly 2 million tons the U.S. imports annually and versus around 13 million tons of beef consumption. White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Trump had pledged to protect ranchers and deliver economic relief for everyday Americans. The administration was accomplishing both by expanding beef imports from Argentina to lower consumer prices in the short term and rolling out new supports for ranchers, she said.• Oil surges on U.S. sanctions. Oil prices rallied after Washington sanctioned Russia’s largest producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, as President Trump increases pressure on Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war. Brent crude topped $65 per barrel. • Tesla profit drop hits shares. Tesla shares fell 3.2% in premarket trading after reporting a 40% plunge in operating profit. Record vehicle sales were undercut by higher costs as CEO Elon Musk shifts focus away from autos toward AI and robotics. • Beyond Meat frenzy unravels. Shares of Beyond Meat gave back much of a 1,000% four-day rally, highlighting speculative volatility around unprofitable food tech stocks. •U.S./China trade talks set in Malaysia. China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and USTR Jamieson Greer in Malaysia this weekend to ease tensions. The U.S. is weighing export restrictions on Chinese software, while President Trump expressed optimism about reaching a trade and agricultural deal with President Xi Jinping at next week’s APEC summit in South Korea. Meanwhile, soybean futures continue to rally on Trump’s upbeat comments about getting China to buy U.S. soybeans. •European markets near record highs. European stocks hovered near record peaks, buoyed by strong earnings from Nokia, Kering, and Volvo Car. U.S. futures also edged higher as quarterly results continued to beat expectations. •Wall Street bonus boom. Major U.S. banks are on track for record bonuses, driven by revived dealmaking and strong equity markets. •Canada’s Carney pushes export diversification. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a plan to double exports outside the U.S. by 2035, aiming to add C$300 billion in trade and reduce reliance on the American market. He called it a “generational investment” in Canada’s future. •SNAP benefits in jeopardy. 25 states warned they may halt SNAP (food aid) benefits on Nov. 1 due to the ongoing government shutdown. Lawmakers are considering using Section 32 funds or Sen. Josh Hawley’s bill to temporarily extend payments, but no agreement has been reached. •Marketing loans little used. Only 3% of corn and 2% of soybean production from 2024 has been placed under Marketing Assistance Loans (MALs), reflecting high commodity prices that keep producers from using federal loan programs.—Oil prices jumped more than 5% after Western nations imposed fresh sanctions on Russia’s energy industry, but only partially offsetting a drop of about 13% since late September. Brent and West Texas Intermediate, the two crude benchmarks, are still both trading in the $60s, below their average for the year to date. This comes ahead of a Brussels summit as the European Union moved to pressure Moscow into a ceasefire in Ukraine, unveiling plans to prohibit imports of Russian liquefied natural gas starting in 2027. Earlier, the Trump administration announced new sanctions targeting Russia’s two largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil. See details in the next item. —U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil threaten India’s Russian oil importsWashington’s new measures against Russia’s top oil firms risk cutting off 1.5 million barrels a day of crude to Indian refiners and reshaping global energy flows The Trump administration’s latest sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil producers — Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC — are set to sharply curtail Moscow’s oil exports, with Indian refiners among the most affected. The U.S. ban on dealings with these companies places refiners worldwide at risk of secondary sanctions if they continue purchasing Russian crude, jeopardizing their access to the U.S. banking system and capital markets. Executives at several Indian refineries said the move would make it virtually impossible to keep importing from Russia. These sanctions follow the additional tariffs President Donald Trump imposed on India in August to penalize its continued energy ties with Moscow. Despite those earlier measures, India had still been buying roughly 1.5 million barrels a day of Russian oil, according to Bloomberg vessel-tracking data. Should Indian refiners halt purchases, Russia will face the challenge of redirecting vast volumes of crude. China stands out as the likely alternative buyer, but Beijing has already voiced unease about becoming overly dependent on Russian supplies — leaving Moscow with fewer easy options to keep its oil flowing. Still, China is pushing ahead with imports of U.S.-sanctioned Russian liquefied natural gas, after the White House stopped short of putting additional restrictions on the trade in its latest wave of sanctions. Of note: With forecasters predicting an oil glut in the coming months, the timing of Trump’s move is opportune. More than 1 billion barrels of oil are already on the water and global production is expected to rise by as much as 550,000 barrels a day this quarter, according to the International Energy Agency. This surplus could explain why the market reaction to the potential loss of Russian supplies was sizable, but not extreme. The Treasury Department cited Russia’s “lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that the Treasury could take “further action if necessary.” These sanctions are related to plans for a meeting between President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin falling through, a senior White House official told NBC News.  —China confirms new round of trade talks with U.S. in Malaysia Vice Premier He Lifeng to meet Treasury Secretary Bessent as truce deadline looms China’s Commerce Ministry said Thursday that Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet with U.S. officials in Kuala Lumpur from Oct. 24–27 for the next round of trade talks aimed at easing tensions between Washington and Beijing. The discussions come as a temporary trade truce is set to expire Nov. 10, raising stakes for both sides amid escalating tariffs and export restrictions. Of note: According to Bloomberg, He — Beijing’s top trade negotiator and a close ally of President Xi Jinping — spoke last week with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ahead of the meetings. The two are expected to tackle recent U.S. tech restrictions, new levies on Chinese ships, and China’s export controls on rare earths and critical materials. The upcoming session could also help lay groundwork for an anticipated meeting between Xi and President Donald Trump later this month at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea. Tensions have intensified in recent weeks, with Trump threatening to impose “sky-high” tariffs and warning he could cancel his in-person summit with Xi. Beijing, for its part, has sought to reassure foreign businesses that its latest export curbs are not meant to choke off trade, even as it convened a large meeting with international firms earlier this week. Trump is also expected to visit Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea later this month — a trip that may overlap with Premier Li Qiang’s presence in Kuala Lumpur for a regional summit, though no bilateral meeting has been announced. —USDA launches comprehensive plan to rebuild U.S. cattle industryFocus on expanded grazing access, processor support, and “Made in USA” labeling enforcement; Trump import push from Argentina excluded USDA on Wednesday released a detailed plan aimed at revitalizing the American cattle sector through expanded access to federal grazing lands, improved risk management tools, greater processing capacity, and tighter enforcement of voluntary “Made in USA” beef labels. The 13-page strategy notably omits President Donald Trump’s controversial proposal to increase beef imports from Argentina, which had unsettled domestic cattle markets earlier in the week. However, the White House announced today it was raising the tariff rate quota on Argentinian beef to 80,000 metric tons to reduce prices and protect American farmers. According to USDA, the number of U.S. cattle operations has dropped by 17% since 2017 — over 150,000 ranches — while the national herd is at a 75-year low and beef demand has risen nearly 9% over the past decade. The agency said it aims to stabilize the sector by addressing supply bottlenecks and price volatility. Key initiatives 1. Expanding grazing access:In partnership with the Interior Department, USDA will reopen up to 24 million acres of currently vacant federal grazing allotments, streamline permitting, and use “targeted grazing” to manage invasive species and wildfire risks. Agencies will also prioritize drought and fire emergency flexibilities and hold regional meetings with ranchers to guide locally led range management plans. 2. Predator and risk management reforms:New compensation standards under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will provide full market-value indemnities — including for unborn livestock — lost to predation. The Risk Management Agency expanded the “beginning farmer” eligibility period from five to ten years, offering stepped premium subsidies over that timeframe. 3. Boosting slaughter and processing capacity:USDA’s Rural Business-Cooperative Service will launch a fourth round of Meat and Poultry Processing Expansion Program grants of up to $2 million per award, prioritizing small and medium beef processors. The Small Business Administration will offer low-interest loans to help new entrants offset start-up costs. 4. Labeling and market transparency:Beginning Jan. 1, 2026, only cattle born, raised, and slaughtered in the U.S. may use “Product of USA” or similar claims. USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service will oversee compliance and issue new guidance later in 2025. Meanwhile, the Agricultural Marketing Service will expand data tools such as the Cattle Contract Library to promote price transparency. 5. Innovation and technology:The plan promotes LiDAR-based feeder cattle assessment tools, virtual fencing, and other precision-management technologies to improve herd tracking and reduce labor costs. 6. Building demand:USDA will encourage domestic beef consumption through school sourcing programs, farm-to-school grants, and inclusion of protein-rich diets in the 2025-2030 Dietary Guidelines for Americans. Of note: The Trump administration said on Thursday it was raising the tariff rate quota on Argentinian beef to 80,000 metric tons to reduce prices and protect American farmers, a White House official said. That is a small share of the roughly 2 million tons the U.S. imports annually and versus around 13 million tons of beef consumption. White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Trump had pledged to protect ranchers and deliver economic relief for everyday Americans. The administration was accomplishing both by expanding beef imports from Argentina to lower consumer prices in the short term and rolling out new supports for ranchers, she said. Outlook: The initiative’s success hinges on close coordination among multiple federal agencies — a process that can be slow due to required memoranda of understanding. The plan’s emphasis on domestic production, technology, and labeling integrity underscores the administration’s goal of treating beef supply as a matter of national security. Link: Trump Administration Unveils Major Plan to Rebuild U.S. Cattle Herd, Lower Beef Prices and Link: USDA White Paper: The Trump Administration’s Plan to Fortify the American Beef Industry. —Ag, cattle groups and Sen. Thune continue to push back on Trump’s Argentina beef dealFarm Bureau and cattle groups warn expanded imports could weaken U.S. ranchers amid record-high beef prices; Thune wants Trump to backtrack U.S. farm and cattle organizations are voicing opposition to President Donald Trump’s proposal to increase beef imports from Argentina, a plan that has drawn sharp concern across the industry. The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) and the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) said Wednesday they remain focused on opposing the initiative, warning it could undermine U.S. ranchers already facing high costs and tight margins. While NCBA declined to comment directly on USDA’s plan, a communications director said the group remains “extremely concerned” by the administration’s continued push to buy Argentinian beef. President Trump, posting on Truth Social, defended his proposal, saying ranchers “don’t understand” the benefits tariffs have provided and urged producers to “get their prices down” for consumers. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, prices for ground chuck are at historic highs — up more than a dollar per pound since the start of the year. AFBF President Zippy Duvall countered that “farm families feel the impact of higher grocery costs, but don’t get to set the prices,” warning that expanded imports could “push farmers deeper into the red” and make the U.S. more dependent on foreign food sources. Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) doesn’t agree with Trump’s plans to import Argentine beef and drive down prices of the meat. That could hurt South Dakota’s ranchers, who are making themselves heard. “This isn’t the way to do it,” Thune told Semafor. “I’m hoping that the White House has gotten the message.” They apparently didn’t because this morning they announced a four-fold boost in beef imports from Argentina. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, in a Tuesday interview with News Nation, sought to downplay the effect, saying any deal with Argentina “won’t be too much of a huge differential” from current import levels. —USDA to reopen FSA county offices for limited operationsAgency to issue $3 billion in delayed farm payments, accept new marketing loan applications USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins announced that the department’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) county offices will reopen today for limited functions after being closed during the government shutdown. The offices will resume processing about $3 billion in farm payments owed to producers. In addition, FSA offices will begin accepting applications for marketing assistance loans (MALs), which allow farmers to use their newly harvested crops as collateral for non-recourse loans with nine-month terms. The reopening aims to restore critical financial support and liquidity for farmers as harvest season concludes. —SNAP funding cliff nears as shutdown drags onMillions face loss of food aid Nov. 1; states and senators scramble for stopgap solutions Millions of low-income Americans could lose access to food assistance on Nov. 1 as the gov’t shutdown enters its fourth week, with roughly half of U.S. states warning that Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits will be suspended. Twenty-five states have begun notifying SNAP participants that they will not receive November benefits, following guidance from USDA’s Food and Nutrition Service instructing states to pause distributions until further notice. USDA would need over $8 billion to continue SNAP payments if the shutdown persists. States have been drawing from their own budgets and limited federal contingency funding, but those resources are nearly exhausted. On Capitol Hill, Senate Republicans are debating a proposal by Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) that would fund SNAP for the duration of the shutdown. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said GOP leaders are reviewing “some options,” but no vote is yet scheduled. Hawley has vowed to seek unanimous consent for a vote if leadership delays action. Meanwhile, Senate Democrats are pressing USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins to use USDA’s Section 32 fund, which contains tariff revenue, to keep food aid flowing. That same fund was recently tapped to sustain the WIC program for women and infants. Despite the looming cutoff, Democratic leaders have refused to reopen the government without a broader budget deal. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Republicans should “sit down and negotiate,” while Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) argued that prolonging the shutdown “isn’t worth it” if it denies Americans “health care and food.” —U.S. debt tops $38 trillion, fastest non-pandemic increase on recordFiscal alarm grows as debt rises $1 trillion in just two months, with credit downgrades mounting and interest costs soaring The U.S. gross federal debt has surpassed $38 trillion, only two months after crossing the $37 trillion mark — the fastest $1 trillion jump outside of a pandemic, according to the Peterson Foundation. The Washington-based group warns that fiscal milestones are now being reached twice as quickly as they were at the start of the century. “Three successive downgrades of the U.S. credit rating should alarm elected leaders, but our national debt remains on an unsustainable trajectory,” said Michael Peterson, CEO of the foundation. “The United States now finds itself with credit ratings below its former AAA peers — such as Australia, Denmark, and Germany — and instead among nations like Austria, New Zealand, and France. However, even among those nations, the United States is still a fiscal outlier, given that it has approximately 119% of gross debt to GDP and an annual deficit of more than 7%.” Of note: Despite modest efforts such as the Deficit Optimization and Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative, policymakers remain reluctant to confront the ballooning debt. Entitlement programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security remain politically untouchable, while defense spending continues to expand. Recent legislative packages — notably the “One Big Beautiful Bill” — have only worsened the fiscal outlook. Interest payments have become the third-largest federal expenditure, trailing only Social Security and defense. Investors have taken notice: gold prices have surged this year amid concerns over fiscal stability (despite a recent pullback), the dollar has weakened, and bond yields remain high — a combination that risks slowing economic growth if sustained. The debt milestone comes as the government shutdown drags on, now the second-longest in U.S. history, with lawmakers deadlocked over spending priorities, including whether to extend enhanced ACA/ObamaCare tax credits. Analysts warn that unless Washington can forge a bipartisan consensus on structural reforms and spending caps, the U.S. faces a future of higher borrowing costs, weaker growth, and continued fiscal erosion. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to narrowly mixed openings. Earnings overnight were disappointing, as TSLA, IBM and SAP all missed earnings or cut guidance. Geopolitically, the U.S. sanctioned Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft, causing a 5% spike in oil prices.
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Oct. 22 | Point Difference from Oct. 21 | % Difference from Oct. 21 |
| Dow | 46,590.41 | -334.33 | -0.71% |
| Nasdaq | 22,740.40 | -213.27 | -0.93% |
| S&P 500 | 6,699.40 | -35.95 | -0.53% |
—Tesla reported third-quarter profits of $1.4 billion, down 37% from a year earlier, even as revenue climbed to a record $28 billion. The decline was attributed in part to higher research spending on robotics and artificial intelligence. Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja also noted that new tariffs had imposed more than $400 million in costs during the quarter.
—Netflix shares fell 10% on Thursday, a day after the company posted quarterly results that missed expectations. Executives said a tax dispute in Brazil had dented profits, but investor concerns extend beyond that. Persistent worries over Netflix’s lofty valuation — and its decision to stop reporting subscriber numbers — continue to weigh on sentiment.
—Gold’s two-day price slump of about 6% saw large outflows from exchange-traded funds backed by the precious metal. On Wednesday they cut 297,451 troy ounces from their holdings, the biggest single day decline in five months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
—Investors expect sharp devaluation of Argentine peso amid election-linked uncertainty
Despite a $40 billion support package, forward contracts price in a roughly 12% drop for the currency after this weekend’s elections
According to Financial Times reporting, investors are increasingly betting that the Argentine peso will undergo a significant devaluation in the coming months, despite a large U.S. support package aimed at propping up the currency.
Key take-aways:
• Offshore forward contracts imply about a 12% depreciation of the peso over the next three months.
• This confidence in devaluation comes despite a U.S. support program totaling roughly $40 billion.
Underlying concerns include:
• The current currency-band regime is viewed by many analysts as unsustainable.
• The government’s reserves have been significantly depleted amid intervention efforts.
• The upcoming mid-term elections are seen as a possible inflection point for policy, raising fears that the regime supporting the peso could be reversed or relaxed afterwards.
Analysts quoted in the FT suggest that once the election occurs, the central bank may abandon the existing band or widen the trading range, triggering a realignment of the peso.
Although this devaluation expectation appears to challenge the official narrative (economy officials claim no change to the current scheme), the forward-markets are already pricing in the move.
Upshot: The market is signaling a lack of confidence that Argentina can maintain the current exchange-rate policy indefinitely — even with significant U.S. backing — and is positioning ahead of what many expect to be a post-election shift.
| AG MARKETS |
—Soybeans edge higher on Trump’s confidence in China deal
Futures climb as Trump signals agreement on farm goods, rare earths ahead of Xi meeting
U.S. soybean futures rose early Thursday after President Donald Trump expressed confidence he would reach a trade agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their planned meeting in South Korea next week — one that could include renewed Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural goods.
Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump said he and Xi would discuss “Russian oil, resuming soybean purchases and rare earths exports,” adding, “We’ll make a deal on, I think, everything.”
January soybean contracts gained as much as 0.3%, marking a second straight day of gains and hovering just below a two-month high. However, traders remained cautious amid uncertainty about the meeting’s outcome — or whether it would take place at all.
—U.S. farm economy faces mounting pressure from tariffs, labor shortages, and rising debt
EconoFact warns of deepening stress in agriculture as farm debt hits record highs and exports slump
The U.S. agricultural sector is entering a period of acute stress, according to EconoFact’s latest analysis by Menzie Chinn of the University of Wisconsin–Madison. The report warns that high input costs, low crop prices, rising interest expenses, and new trade and immigration policies are straining producers across the country. “The U.S. agricultural sector is facing multiple challenges,” Chinn writes. “High input and production costs together with low commodity prices for some of the country’s major crops — including soy, corn and wheat — contribute to slim or even negative profit margins.”
Rising costs, weak prices, and record farm debt. EconoFact notes that net farm income excluding government support is forecast to be flat in 2025, with real income from commodity sales roughly unchanged from 2024. Disaster relief payments will temporarily lift total net income, but the underlying picture remains weak.
Farm debt is projected to reach $386.4 billion in 2025, the highest on record. “High interest rates have raised the cost of borrowing money,” Chinn observes, estimating that total interest expenses for farm operations will be nearly 18% higher than in 2023. Bankruptcies are also climbing — 181 filings in the first half of 2025 alone, putting the year on pace to exceed 2024’s total.
Tariff shock on farm inputs. The report underscores the burden from tariffs imposed under the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974, and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). “As a result of tariff actions, the average effective tariff rate on agricultural inputs had jumped from 1 percent to 12 percent as of August 2025,” Chinn notes, adding that pesticides, tractors, and machinery face the steepest increases — “effective tariff rates on herbicides and pesticides are 20 percent or higher.”
Export losses and retaliation. Foreign retaliation has sharply reduced U.S. soybean exports, with China — historically the top buyer — purchasing no U.S. soybeans in September 2025. Brazil and Argentina have filled the gap, exporting record volumes to China. “Overall, the trade tensions have added a layer of uncertainty to future U.S. agricultural exports,” EconoFact warns, as new rounds of tariff threats loom from Canada, the EU, and Mexico.
Labor shortages worsen as immigration tightens. The report highlights worsening labor constraints amid restrictive immigration policies. “About two-thirds of agricultural workers in crop and crop-related work are noncitizen immigrants and surveys indicate that nearly half lack work authorization,” Chinn writes. Recent declines in agricultural employment — down 155,000 between March and July 2025 — could drive up costs and reduce output. The Labor Department itself acknowledged in an October 2025 filing that without swift action to expand farm visa programs, “labor shortages will likely intensify, driving up production costs, limiting output … and increasing reliance on imported food products.”
Limited fiscal room for a new aid package. While the Trump administration is weighing a $10–14 billion farm bailout, EconoFact notes that most Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) funds were stripped under the One Big Beautiful Budget Act of 2025, leaving only $4 billion available. During the previous trade war, CCC funded $28 billion in farm relief — a level now out of reach. “According to projected figures for 2025, 22.4% of farm net cash income will come from federal programs,” Chinn concludes, cautioning that the farm sector’s growing dependence on government aid raises “concerns with how this relief program has increased the industry’s dependency on government support.”
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Oct. 22 | Change from Oct. 21 |
| Corn | December | $4.23 | +3 1/4¢ |
| Soybeans | January | $10.50 | +1 1/2¢ |
| Soybean Meal | December | $290.00 | +$3.10 |
| Soybean Oil | December | 50.07¢ | -58 pts |
| SRW Wheat | December | $5.03 3/4 | +3 1/2¢ |
| HRW Wheat | December | $4.88 1/2 | +3 1/2¢ |
| Spring Wheat | December | $5.47 3/4 | +3¢ |
| Cotton | December | 63.74¢ | -68 pts |
| Live Cattle | December | $239.825 | -$5.60 |
| Feeder Cattle | January | $361.025 | -$9.25 (limit) |
| Lean Hogs | December | $82.40 | -87 1/2¢ |
| FARM POLICY |
—Marketing loan use now minimal for corn, soybeans. The use of USDA marketing assistance loans (MALs) has dropped sharply in recent years as market prices for most crops have remained well above government loan rates. In earlier decades, farmers frequently placed billions of bushels of corn “under loan,” but that practice has largely faded. Part of the decline stems from the availability of loan deficiency payments (LDPs), which allow producers to collect the difference between the loan rate and posted county price without pledging their crops as collateral.
Corn: Loan activity data as of Sept. 1, 2025:
2024 crop corn put under loan: 504.7 million bu. (67.9 million outstanding)
2023 crop 479.5 million
2022 crop 361.9 million
Soybeans:
2024 crop 94.5 million bu. (10 million outstanding)
2023 crop 74.7 million
2022 crop 68.3 million
Bottom Line: Given total 2024 U.S. production of 14.87 billion bushels of corn and 4.37 billion bushels of soybeans, only about 3% of corn and 2% of soybeans were placed under loan. At this time, no loan deficiency payments are available for most 2025 production.
| USDA REORGANIZATION |
—Klobuchar, Slotkin lead lawmakers in urging USDA to reassess animal health risks from reorganization
Senators warn Deputy Secretary Vaden that staff losses and structural changes could weaken defenses against livestock diseases
Letter to USDA Deputy Secretary Vaden. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Ranking Member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, and Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), Ranking Member of the House Livestock, Dairy, Poultry, and Food Safety Subcommittee, led seven colleagues in a letter to USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden expressing deep concern that the department’s proposed reorganization could undermine critical animal and plant health programs.
In the letter, the lawmakers warned that USDA’s plan “could disrupt critical animal and plant health activities” and weaken the department’s capacity to combat threats such as New World Screwworm (NWS) and Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). They cited significant workforce losses — more than 1,300 Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) employees have left since the start of the Trump Administration, including about 100 veterinarians — and said USDA has done little to replace them, noting that only two veterinary medical officer positions have been posted so far in 2025, compared to 52 in 2024.
The group criticized USDA’s handling of the recent human NWS case, saying the department “failed to meet the moment” and “caused confusion and concern by trickling out information over the course of the ensuing weeks.” They warned that further disruption from the reorganization could harm livestock health, raise grocery prices, and jeopardize research at the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center, which has played a leading role in combating NWS.
Vaden pressed to respond. Klobuchar, Slotkin, and their colleagues — Sens. Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Mark Warner (D-Va.), and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) — pressed Vaden to explain how USDA will preserve coordination with the CDC, maintain communication with stakeholders, and fill critical animal-health vacancies without poaching personnel from state and local agencies.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Oil prices surge after U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top energy firms
Market questions whether measures will alter global supply dynamics
Oil prices climbed sharply Thursday, building on the previous day’s gains, after Washington announced new sanctions targeting Russia’s leading energy companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, over the ongoing war in Ukraine. Brent crude futures rose 4.3% to $65.30 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 4.4% to $61.06.
Despite the jump, analysts cautioned that the market remains uncertain about whether the measures will meaningfully disrupt global oil flows. “So far, almost all the sanctions against Russia for the past 3.5 years have mostly failed to dent either the volumes produced by the country or the oil revenues,” said Claudio Galimberti, an analyst at Rystad Energy.
Regarding this morning’s news of sanctions on Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft, that does potentially shift the set up in a more bullish direction, although the scope and enforcement of the sanctions remains to be seen, according to the Sevens Report. “While it has obviously caused a spike higher, it’s too early to say these moves alter what is a still challenged oil market, with too much support and not enough demand,” the analysts concluded.
—Oil prices climbed Wednesday for second straight day on strong U.S. demand, trade deal hopes
Falling inventories and renewed optimism over U.S. trade talks with China and India boost crude markets
Oil prices rose for a second consecutive day Wednesday as signs of robust U.S. energy consumption and optimism surrounding potential trade deals with China and India lifted market sentiment.
Brent crude futures gained $1.27 to $62.59 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed $1.26 to $58.50. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a surprise draw in U.S. crude stocks — down 961,000 barrels to 422.8 million — defying expectations from a Reuters poll for an increase. Gasoline and distillate inventories also declined, reflecting stronger refining activity and rising demand.
“Very impressive for shoulder season,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. “It shows the demand side of the equation of oil is robust, and the supply numbers are not suggesting this oil glut, at least here in the U.S.”
Market attention also turned to U.S./China trade talks set for this week in Malaysia, with President Donald Trump expressing optimism about reaching a fair deal with President Xi Jinping, though later casting doubt over the timing of their meeting.
Geopolitical factors also fueled gains. A postponed Trump-Putin summit raised supply concerns, while Western pressure on Asian refiners to curb Russian oil imports intensified. Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged to limit India’s purchases of Russian crude, aligning with reports that Washington and New Delhi are nearing a trade agreement that would lower U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to 15–16% from 50%.
| TRADE POLICY |
—Carney aims to double Canada’s non-U.S. exports by 2035
Prime minister outlines C$300 billion ($214 billion) trade expansion plan as U.S. tariffs hit Canadian industries
Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a sweeping strategy to double Canada’s exports to markets beyond the United States within a decade, targeting an additional C$300 billion ($214 billion) in trade. In a rare prime-time national address ahead of the Nov. 4 federal budget, Carney said the initiative will form part of a broader push to diversify Canada’s economic base and reduce reliance on the U.S., which currently buys about 75% of Canadian exports. “Many of our former strengths — based on close ties to America — have become our vulnerabilities,” Carney said at the University of Ottawa. He warned that U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump are inflicting job losses in key industries such as autos, steel, and lumber, while investment is being stifled by “a pall of uncertainty.”
Carney highlighted recent trade breakthroughs, including a free trade agreement with Indonesia and new accords with the United Arab Emirates on artificial intelligence, the European Union on defense, and Germany on critical minerals. He also noted renewed engagement with India and China ahead of his upcoming appearances at the ASEAN and APEC summits.
The prime minister said the November budget will focus on “generational investments” and “taking control” of the nation’s future through measures to streamline infrastructure and resource development. A new federal office will fast-track approval for major projects in sectors like mining and construction. “This is what the upcoming budget will be about — building, taking control and winning,” Carney concluded.
—Supreme Court to weigh Trump’s universal tariff authority
Wells Fargo economists warn potential $90 billion in refunds, lasting uncertainty for U.S. businesses
The Supreme Court is preparing to hear a landmark case that could determine whether President Donald Trump’s sweeping “universal tariffs” — covering about 65% of all U.S. imports — are legally justified under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The Wells Fargo Economics Group warns that the case could reshape America’s trade policy and fiscal landscape, potentially triggering $70–$90 billion in tariff refunds if the justices find the tariffs unlawful.
What’s at stake. The Court will begin oral arguments on Nov. 5, examining whether the IEEPA gives the president authority to impose broad, economy-wide tariffs following a national emergency declaration. The case stems from challenges to Trump’s “fentanyl trafficking” and “reciprocal” tariffs — levies introduced under the IEEPA that bypassed traditional Commerce Department investigations required by Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.
Economists Shannon Grein, Tim Quinlan, and Andrew Thompson write that prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi place roughly a 60% chance that the Supreme Court will strike down the IEEPA-based tariffs.
Billions at risk. Through September, the U.S. Treasury collected $174 billion in tariffs this year — more than double 2024’s total. If half of that revenue came from IEEPA-based tariffs, as Wells Fargo estimates, the government could be required to refund importers between $70 and $90 billion, though the process “would take years” and require documentation, legal claims, and congressional appropriations.
Economic and legal fallout. If the Court invalidates the tariffs, the administration could attempt to reimpose duties under other laws — such as Sections 232 or 301 of the Trade Act — but none offer the same immediate, sweeping authority as IEEPA. Wells Fargo cautions that even a favorable ruling for businesses could prolong uncertainty: “It wasn’t just the added cost of tariffs, but the uncertainty around which products and partners would ultimately be exposed that paralyzed decision-making,” the authors write.
Of note: Even without IEEPA tariffs, the U.S. effective tariff rate would remain near 9% — the highest since World War II, keeping pressure on inflation and trade flows into 2026.
—Analyst: Canada shows how to neutralize Trump’s trade attacks
Ottawa’s reforms offer a roadmap for countries seeking to withstand U.S. tariff pressures and global trade fragmentation.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Sept. 22 speech at the Council on Foreign Relations marked a turning point in Ottawa’s response to President Donald Trump’s escalating trade measures. “For an open, democratic economy such as Canada, the end of the rules-based global order and the trade challenges stemming from both the United States and China are existential threats,” wrote Agathe Demarais in Foreign Policy. Yet, she added, Carney’s message was pragmatic: nations should “get on with what we can control.”
That focus on self-strengthening — rather than confrontation — is driving a series of sweeping reforms that Demarais calls a blueprint for other open economies. The measures aim to protect exporters, deepen domestic trade, and reduce dependence on U.S. markets, while expanding alliances through new trade agreements.
Breaking down Canada’s domestic barriers. Canada’s most immediate challenge is internal. Only 27% of Canadian firms sold goods or services outside their home province between mid-2023 and late 2024, according to government data cited by Foreign Policy. Meanwhile, inter-provincial trade remains only half as large as Canada’s exports abroad.
Demarais notes that the “One Canadian Economy Act,” passed in June, directly targets those inefficiencies by removing regulatory and technical barriers that make it “easier to buy goods from abroad than from another province.” The new law allows products approved in one province to be recognized by others and by the federal government.
Ottawa also scrapped 53 federal exemptions that had blocked free movement of goods between provinces. While some regions — particularly Québec —r emain cautious, the International Monetary Fund estimates that removing non-geographic barriers could raise GDP per capita by nearly 4%, or about $1,500 per Canadian, with even higher gains in remote provinces. “These reforms,” Demarais cautions, “are no magic bullet,” but they represent a structural shift in how Canada cushions itself against external economic shocks.
Diversifying beyond the United States. The second prong of Ottawa’s response centers on trade diversification. In August, Canada signed a free-trade pact with Indonesia, a move that may appear modest economically but positions Canada for a broader agreement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
Carney plans to attend the ASEAN summit in Malaysia later this month to finalize the framework. Though the Indonesia deal could disadvantage domestic nickel miners—since Indonesia is the world’s largest producer—Demarais says the larger goal is strategic: establishing footholds in emerging Asian markets less exposed to U.S. tariffs and Chinese coercion.
Turning natural resources into strategic leverage. Demarais emphasizes that Canada is also leveraging its critical-minerals advantage. The country ranks among the world’s top producers of nickel, cobalt, palladium, and lithium — resources increasingly vital for electric-vehicle and defense supply chains.
Rather than a rush to open new mines, Ottawa is forging alliances. Canada recently concluded a minerals-supply agreement with Germany and continues to promote a G7 “buyers’ club” for critical minerals to reduce dependence on China. “China’s dominance in refining rare earths has long been a source of geopolitical leverage,” Demarais writes, “but Canada’s diversified reserves give it both economic and diplomatic capital.”
A template for other democracies. Demarais concludes that Canada’s model offers valuable lessons for others — especially the European Union, which faces similar dilemmas under Trump’s revived trade offensives. The IMF estimates that regulatory fragmentation among EU members acts as the equivalent of a 44% tariff on internal trade. “Instead of debating Trump’s every utterance,” Demarais writes, “EU policymakers could be well advised to ask the Canadians for some policy memos.”
Her central point: Ottawa’s approach — strengthening internal markets, diversifying trade partnerships, and leveraging strategic assets — is not just a defensive strategy. It’s a proactive playbook for any democracy navigating an era of tariffs, uncertainty, and shifting global power.
| CONGRESS |
—Congress’ job rating sinks to 15% as Trump holds steady at 41%
Gallup survey shows GOP frustration driving decline in congressional approval while Trump’s rating remains resilient amid shutdown and foreign policy challenges
As the U.S. government shutdown stretches into its third week, Americans’ approval of Congress has dropped sharply to just 15%, according to a new Gallup poll conducted Oct. 1–16, 2025. Nearly four in five Americans (79%) now disapprove, marking an 11-point decline from the previous month and returning congressional approval to levels seen a year ago.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating, meanwhile, remains steady at 41%, with 54% disapproving — virtually unchanged despite the ongoing budget impasse. Gallup notes that Trump’s current figure “is slightly higher than his third-quarter average of 40.3%, which spanned July 20 to Oct. 19,” a period that overlapped both the shutdown’s onset and the ceasefire he brokered in the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Republican support for Congress collapses. Gallup attributes the overall decline in congressional approval largely to a steep drop among Republicans, whose approval of the GOP-controlled Congress has plunged 21 points in the past month. Independents’ approval is also down nine points, while Democrats’ approval — already at 7% in September — dipped slightly to 5%.
Quote of note: “Since February, after Republicans assumed control of both houses of Congress and the presidency, Republicans’ approval of the body has ranged from 49% to 63%,” Gallup reported. “The current decline may reflect their disapproval of congressional Democrats” amid the spending standoff.
By contrast, Republican approval of Trump remains high at 91%, with 33% of independents and 6% of Democrats approving of his job performance. Gallup analysts suggested that “either Republicans’ approval of Trump is unaffected by recent events or that the positive (Israel/Hamas ceasefire) and negative (shutdown) events are offsetting each other.”
Trump’s standing in historical context. Trump’s third-quarter approval average of 40.3% places him below most post-World War II presidents at a comparable stage in their terms. While it exceeds his first-term third-quarter rating of 36.9%, it trails Joe Biden’s 44.7% and falls short of every other elected president except Bill Clinton’s 47.7% in 1993.
Among presidents in their second terms, Trump’s 40.3% rating is also historically low — surpassed only by Richard Nixon’s 31.8%. Gallup found that “Reagan, Clinton and Eisenhower all had majority-level quarterly ratings in their second presidential terms, ranging from 58.8% to 61.3%.”
Bottom Line: With the government shutdown deepening, Gallup finds public patience wearing thin toward Congress, particularly among Republicans frustrated by stalled negotiations. Yet Trump’s steady approval suggests that voters are distinguishing between congressional dysfunction and presidential leadership — even as his 40% average remains below most historical benchmarks.
“Congress is once again facing approval in the teens,” Gallup concluded, “while President Trump retains stable support as he navigates both a domestic budget crisis and unprecedented diplomacy in the Middle East.”
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
—North Carolina GOP advances new congressional map
Redrawn lines give Republicans edge in one additional seat, flipping Don Davis’ district
North Carolina’s Republican-controlled legislature has approved a new congressional map that positions the GOP to gain one seat in next year’s elections. The state House passed the proposal Wednesday on a party-line vote, following Senate approval the day before.
The redrawn lines make Rep. Don Davis’ coastal district significantly more Republican — shifting from a seat President Donald Trump would have won by 3 points under the old map to one he would have carried by 11 points. The new configuration is expected to produce an 11–3 GOP advantage in the state’s 14-member congressional delegation.
—Cornyn and Paxton deadlocked in Texas GOP Senate primary
University of Texas poll shows tight race; Allred leads Democratic field but faces challenge from Talarico
A University of Texas at Tyler poll conducted Sept. 17–24 shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) and Sen. John Cornyn (R) effectively tied in the state’s GOP Senate primary, with Paxton at 31%, Cornyn at 29%, and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-38) at 14%, while 26% of voters remain undecided. In a head-to-head matchup, Cornyn led narrowly, 39% to 37%, with 23% undecided — underscoring a volatile primary that could hinge on turnout and Trump’s influence in the state.
In the Democratic primary, 2024 nominee Colin Allred leads with 42%, ahead of state Rep. James Talarico at 30%, with 24% undecided. Analysts note that more than half of Texas voters don’t yet recognize Talarico’s name, but his $5 million war chest could help him close that gap before spring.
In general election matchups, Cornyn leads Allred 43%–37% and Talarico 41%–35%, while Paxton trails Allred 41%–38% and narrowly leads Talarico 38%–37%. The results suggest that Paxton’s legal controversies could pose electability risks for Republicans in a general election, while Cornyn maintains broader appeal among moderates.
Meanwhile, in Louisiana, a JMC Analytics and Polling survey (Oct. 15–17; 610 likely voters) found Treasurer John Fleming (R) at 25%, narrowly ahead of Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) at 23%, with 35% undecided in a prospective GOP Senate primary. In a one-on-one matchup, Fleming led Cassidy 40%–29%, signaling growing pressure on the incumbent from his right flank as he faces potential challengers, including Rep. Julia Letlow (R-05), who is reportedly being encouraged by the White House to enter the race.
—John Sununu launches bid to reclaim New Hampshire Senate seat
Former senator enters 2026 race as Shaheen retires, setting up high-profile GOP primary battle
Former U.S. Senator John E. Sununu announced Tuesday that he is entering the 2026 race for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire, seeking to reclaim the seat he lost to Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in 2008. His return to the political stage comes as Shaheen prepares to retire, opening one of the most competitive Senate contests in the country.
Quote of note: Shortly after jumping in, the Senate Majority Leader John Thune-aligned Senate Leadership Fund praised Sununu as a candidate who “puts the Granite State in play for Republicans.”
Sununu, 61, said in his campaign launch that Washington has become “too loud, too angry, and too dysfunctional,” and that he hopes to bring “a practical, results-oriented voice” back to the Senate. He emphasized making life more affordable for working families, reducing health-care costs, and protecting Medicare — issues that he said resonate with New Hampshire’s independent-minded voters. “New Hampshire deserves serious leadership focused on solving problems, not partisan shouting matches,” Sununu said in his announcement. “We can do better — and I’m ready to serve again.”
A familiar name in New Hampshire politics. The Sununu name is synonymous with New Hampshire Republican politics. John E. Sununu previously represented the state in the U.S. House from 1997 to 2003 and in the Senate from 2003 to 2009. His father, John H. Sununu, served as governor and later White House chief of staff under President George H. W. Bush, while his younger brother, Chris Sununu, was governor from 2017 to 2025.
After losing his Senate seat to Shaheen, Sununu moved into the private sector and served on several corporate boards. His re-entry into politics marks his first campaign in more than 15 years.
GOP field already crowded. Sununu’s decision sets up a competitive Republican primary. Former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown, who has deep roots in the state and previously served as U.S. ambassador to New Zealand under President Donald Trump, entered the race earlier this year. Brown is expected to appeal to Trump-aligned voters, while Sununu’s more moderate record — and past criticism of Trump — could draw support from the party’s establishment wing.
A recent University of New Hampshire poll showed Sununu and Democratic Congressman Chris Pappas virtually tied in a hypothetical general-election matchup, 45% to 43%, suggesting the seat could again become a national battleground.
Dems respond. “While John Sununu was cashing in and making millions selling out to corporations and working for special interests, Chris Pappas was delivering for New Hampshire,“ Rachel Petri, Pappas’ campaign manager, said in a statement. Senate Majority PAC spokesperson Lauren French welcomed Sununu into the race by calling the Republican “a corporate shill.”
Balancing act within the GOP. Although Sununu has expressed respect for Trump, he notably endorsed Nikki Haley during the 2024 Republican primaries — a stance that could complicate his bid for support from Trump’s base. Still, national Republicans see him as a strong contender capable of expanding the GOP’s reach in New England.
Republican strategists believe Sununu’s name recognition, combined with his technocratic style and record on fiscal issues, could make him a formidable challenger in the general election. Democrats, meanwhile, are expected to link him to corporate interests and portray him as out of touch after years away from public service.
What’s at stake. The New Hampshire seat is one of a handful that could determine control of the Senate in 2026. With President Trump seeking to solidify Republican dominance in Congress, Sununu’s candidacy could play a pivotal role in shaping the party’s image in swing states. If successful, his return would mark a rare political comeback — and a potential revival of one of New England’s most prominent Republican dynasties.
| TRANSPORTATION/LOGISTICS |
—Chemical industry warns Trump: UP/NS rail merger could cripple U.S. manufacturing
ACC letter urges White House and STB to block deal that would “leave manufacturers, farmers, and energy producers with fewer choices, higher costs, and less reliable service”
Forty CEOs representing the American Chemistry Council (ACC) have urged President Donald Trump to oppose the proposed Union Pacific/Norfolk Southern merger, warning that it threatens U.S. manufacturing competitiveness and could spark “a nationwide railroad duopoly.”
In a letter (link), the CEOs wrote, “Today, the U.S. freight rail system is less competitive than ever. Just four railroads control more than 90% of U.S. rail traffic… Past mergers have led to severe service disruptions, rising rates, weakened supply chains and a less competitive U.S. industrial base.” They said combining UP and NS “will make these problems worse.”
The letter calls on the Surface Transportation Board (STB) to set a high bar for any merger approval, saying it should reject any deal that fails to “clearly demonstrate how it would improve service, increase safety, and enhance rail-to-rail competition.”
ACC President Chris Jahn told Logistics Management that every merger in recent decades has led to degraded service: “We’ve gone from 23 railroads down to six, with four controlling 90% of the traffic. Every single time there’s a merger, there’s a degradation of service.” He added that rates for captive chemical facilities have risen 240% over 15 years, compared with 24% for competitive ones — “literally 10 times as much.”
While the chemical sector is unified in opposition, the merger has drawn strong labor backing. The SMART-TD rail union, representing more than 100,000 workers, endorsed the deal last month, calling it a “groundbreaking agreement” guaranteeing career-long job protection. SMART-TD President Jeremy Ferguson said, “We are protecting jobs, protecting families, and protecting the future of the U.S. supply chain.”
Union Pacific CEO Jim Vena countered that the merger will “unlock new sources of growth for the country” and reduce truck congestion, while Norfolk Southern’s Mark George said it would “create growth opportunities for businesses and people.”
Bottom Line: The clash between chemical manufacturers and rail labor sets up a major test for the Surface Transportation Board, which must decide whether the merger serves the “public interest” — a ruling that could reshape the nation’s freight network for decades.
| WEATHER |
— Costliest start to any year for U.S. climate disasters on record
Wildfires, storms, and tornadoes drive $101 billion in damage during first half of 2025
Wildfires in Los Angeles, widespread tornadoes in the Midwest, and severe storms across the South made the first six months of 2025 the costliest start to any year for U.S. climate disasters, according to new data from the nonprofit Climate Central. The group began tracking billion-dollar weather events earlier this year after the Trump administration cut funding for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) disaster database.
Climate Central reported $101 billion in total damage through June, encompassing 14 separate billion-dollar disasters: six tornado outbreaks, six severe storms, one hail and flooding event, and the devastating Los Angeles wildfires. Those January wildfires alone destroyed about 16,000 buildings and caused $61 billion in losses, ranking as the 10th costliest disaster in U.S. history — and the only one in the top 10 not linked to a hurricane.
The group is using NOAA’s former methodology, led by Adam Smith, a former NOAA economist who now maintains the independent tracker.
Since 1980, the United States has endured 417 billion-dollar disasters totaling $3.1 trillion in damages. Scientists warn that rising global temperatures are amplifying storm intensity, wildfire spread, and flood potential, making such costly events increasingly common. From 1980 to 2024, the U.S. averaged nine billion-dollar disasters annually; in the past five years, that number has surged to 24.
Bottom Line: Climate Central warns that U.S. resilience measures lag far behind the pace of accelerating climate impacts.
—NWS outlook: Heavy rain and severe weather threats emerge and expand across the south Plains to the Arklatex Thursday night through Saturday morning… …Unsettled weather with locally heavy rain reaching the Pacific Northwest on Friday followed by another round early Saturday… …Chilly and showery weather across the Great Lakes will gradually taper off through the next couple of days.
