Bessent Provides Some Details of China Purchases of U.S. Soybeans and Market Pops Higher

What U.S. and China agreed to and key questions to be answered 

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Link: Early Chinese Soybean Buys May Signal Thaw, Not Disappointment
Link: Fed Cuts Rates, To End Balance Sheet Runoff as Shutdown Clouds Outlook
Link: Senate Finance Panel Grills USTR Nominee on Argentina, China, Soybeans,
         Sorghum, Cotton, Wheat, Potatoes & Meat
Link: Mexico, U.S. Advance Talks on Cattle Border Reopening — But No Date Set
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 24
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 24

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Today’s Updates:
 

U.S./CHINA RELATIONS
— Trump says Beijing committed to “tremendous” U.S. ag purchases after
     one-year deal with President Xi; Bessent provides some details
— Trump to visit China in April
 

MONETARY POLICY
— Powell cautions on December rate cut amid data blackout
— Did the Fed weaken the bullish argument?
 

ECONOMY & FISCAL POLICY
— CBO warns shutdown’s economic impact could cost up to $14 billion in lost output
 

FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: Mixed markets ahead of major earnings, cautious Fed tone
— Equities yesterday: Indices mostly lower as investors assess Fed decision
 

AGRICULTURE
— Brazil’s soybean processing to hit record 60 million tons in 2025/26
— Agriculture markets yesterday: Commodity futures mixed with strength in cattle
 

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil prices eased Thursday despite Trump’s tariff rollback on China
— Oil prices rebounded Wednesday on strong U.S. inventory draw, trade optimism
 

TRADE POLICY
— Senate vote to end Brazil tariffs doomed beyond upper chamber
— WTO clears EU retaliation on U.S. olives dispute
 

CONGRESS & POLITICS
— Senate optimism grows amid lingering shutdown gridlock
 

NOMINATIONS
— Surgeon general hearing postponed as nominee goes into labor
— Senate grills ag nominees on USDA overhaul, staffing, and rulemaking
 

WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Storms, heavy rain, and below-avg. temps across much of U.S.

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Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Oct. 30, 2025

—Trump says Beijing committed to “tremendous” U.S. ag purchases after one-year deal with President Xi“Tremendous amounts of the soybeans and other farm products are going to be purchased immediately,” Trump said after meeting Xi in Busan; some details on scope and commodities provided by Treasury Secretary Bessent President Donald Trump met for 90 minutes with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea on the sidelines of the APEC 2025 Summit and announced they had reached a one-year framework deal covering trade, agriculture, rare-earths and fentanyl precursor controls. Trump said the countries would be able to finalize the trade deal “pretty soon.” However, he said that the deal will have to be renewed annually. “Now every year, we’ll renegotiate the deal, but I think the deal will go on for a long time, long beyond the year,” Trump said. (Trump is due back into D.C. at around 3 p.m. ET and will head straight to a Halloween party at the White House.) Xi and Trump at Gimhae Air Base on Thursday. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images) Of note: In a post on Truth Social, Trump said that he was “extremely honored by the fact that President Xi authorized China to begin the purchase of massive amounts of Soybeans, Sorghum, and other Farm products. Our Farmers will be very happy!” Trump indicated that as he had said during this first administration, “farmers should immediately go out and buy more land and larger tractors.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Fox Business that China will purchase 12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans during the current season through January and would purchase a minimum of 25 MMT annually for the next three years (25 MMT would be ~2 MMT shy of 2015-24 average; that includes 2018 and 2019, which were low due to the U.S./China trade war; removing those years it would be 30 MMT average… so 5 MMT shy). Ahead of the Trump/Xi meeting, market talk was that it would involve 30 MMT to 50 MMT over three years. Bessent told Fox Business Network’s Mornings with Maria program that other countries in Southeast Asia have agreed to buy another 19 million tons of U.S. soybeans, but did not specify a timeframe for those purchases. “So our great soybean farmers, who the Chinese used as political pawns, that’s off the table, and they should prosper in the years to come,” Bessent said.  USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins posted the Trump message on X, saying “LETS GOOO!!! Soybeans! Sorghum! Big news out of President Trump’s historic meeting with President Xi! More details coming soon.” Note: As is typical of general farm media, they are just focusing on soybeans, and most are not mentioning sorghum and other U.S. farm products. The U.S. side said tariffs on Chinese imports would fall from ~57% to ~47% under the deal. Washington will suspend for one year an investigation into China’s shipbuilding sector and a rule that would have expanded the application of export controls to companies’ subsidiaries, according to a spokesperson for China’s Commerce Ministry. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, speaking alongside Trump, said the U.S. would “postpone” action under Section 301 related to shipping and ports. China will suspend its fees imposed on U.S. ships. “So that’s no longer an issue,” Trump said. Market impact: Many traders and analysts were pessimistic on Wednesday before some details this morning. It will be interesting to see what additional self-made hurdles this pessimistic crowd surfaces today. Link to special report. China will also make purchases of U.S. energy, Trump said, with a “very large-scale transaction may take place concerning the purchase of Oil and Gas from the great state of Alaska.” U.S. energy officials including Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other U.S. officials will meet with their Chinese counter parts to “see if such an Energy Deal can be worked out,” he added. China concessions: Beijing will defer the rare earth export controls announced in October by one year, expand cooperation on stopping the flow of fentanyl precursor chemicals into the U.S. — which Trump has accused China of facilitating — and boost agricultural trade. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said China signaled it “over-stepped” in imposing new export controls on rare earths/strategic minerals. China also said it will “resolve issues related to TikTok.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says he expects the TikTok deal to “go forward in the coming weeks and months.” The U.S. finalized the TikTok agreement in terms of getting Chinese approval, Bessent said on Fox Business. Bessent confirms U.S. won’t expand entity list curbs for a year. “Yes, we are going to be suspending that for a year in return for the suspension on the rare earth licensing regime,”  Bessent said on Fox Business. Bessent responded to a question about whether the U.S. agreed with China that it will suspend the expansion of export restrictions to any entity that is at least 50% owned by one or more sanctioned entities. Trump also said he spoke to Xi about chip technology. He said China would be in discussions with Nvidia about additional semiconductor purchases but that the company’s newest generation of advanced processors were not part of the conversation. China’s official read-out showed that Beijing “looks forward to working … to inject more certainty and stability into Sino/U.S. economic and trade cooperation.” But Beijing did not disclose precise volumes, commodity breakdowns or timing of the ag purchases. Trump comments: “I would say on a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best, I would say the meeting was a 12,” Trump said on Air Force One as he departed. From the air, he thanked Xi for the “truly great” meeting in a Truth Social post. Although China booked a few specific cargoes of soybeans from the 2025 U.S. harvest, the volumes remain modest and far behind the scale needed to restore the U.S./share of China’s imports. Some analysts caution that while the announcement creates positive headline optics, the lack of binding targets or enforcement mechanisms means the “tremendous amounts” claim may not immediately translate into large, sustained U.S. exports. But that assessment has to confront what Bessent revealed this morning. For markets: Soybean futures had risen on build-up to the meeting, but some pullback occurred once market actors noted the absence of clear quantitative commitments. Again, this was before Bessent’s comments on Fox Business. For structural change: Despite the agricultural headline, the deal remains temporary (one year) and reportedly lacks deep structural reforms — so while it may improve near-term flows, it doesn’t resolve the broader U.S. concerns about China’s state-led industrial practices, export controls, or trade distortions. President Trump announced Tuesday that the United States will resume nuclear weapons testing for the first time since 1992, ending a three-decade moratorium. “We have more nuclear weapons than anybody. We don’t do testing… but with others doing testing, I think it’s appropriate that we do also,” Trump said, referring to China and Russia. Trump added that he still favors eventual denuclearization but maintained that renewed testing is “appropriate” given current international conditions. The U.S., Russia, and China have not conducted nuclear tests since 1992, 1990, and 1996 respectively. Neither Xi nor Trump mentioned nuclear weapons or testing in the meeting. The two men spoke at length on Ukraine, but with no serious discussion of reducing Chinese spending on Russian oil. “We didn’t really discuss the oil,” Trump said. “We discussed working together to see if we can get that war finished.” And Taiwan just “never came up,” per Trump.  Unanswered questions & risks• What concrete volume of U.S. soybeans or other farm commodities has China committed to purchase? Bessent’s comments revealed some of this information. • As for China’s purchases of U.S. soybeans, sorghum and other agricultural products, the U.S. gov’t shutdown means that the usual daily export sales reporting system and the weekly Export Sales report is not available to confirm purchases made beyond certain levels.• Will China rollback or reduce tariffs/quotas specifically on U.S. agriculture, or will purchases continue under the existing tariff regime? For example, still no mention of whether China will remove/reduce the 20% retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybeans. That will determine if purchases are by state-owned firms only or state-owned and commercial.• How will U.S. transportation, port logistics, and farm supply chains adjust if a surge in demand comes?• Could this deal be undermined if other parts of U.S./China relations (e.g., rare earths, tech restrictions) deteriorate?• How will this play out in the 2025/26 U.S. soybean marketing year, given the timing of harvest, competition from Brazilian/Argentinian beans, and farmers’ supply decisions?  Bottom Line: “I don’t think you’re going to see decoupling — I think you’re going to see strategic decoupling,” Robert Lighthizer, Trump’s lead trade negotiator with China during his first term, told Bloomberg Television on Thursday as the summit kicked off. “This is only going to be something that’s going to last for a period of months, or perhaps a year or so,” he added. “And then we’re going to be back there, and have to look at it again.” A reminder: The last time the leaders met face to face, in 2019, Trump hailed the talks as a breakthrough, only for the two sides to ratchet up trade barriers afterward. The uncertainty will most likely hang over companies and markets. —Trump to visit China in AprilLeaders plan reciprocal visits as U.S./China relations stabilize after APEC talks President Donald Trump announced Thursday that he will travel to China in April, with Chinese President Xi Jinping expected to make a return visit to the United States later in the year. The announcement followed their bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea — a session widely seen as a step toward rebuilding high-level dialogue between Washington and Beijing. The planned exchange of state visits marks the first formal round of leader-to-leader meetings outside of multilateral forums since Trump returned to office. Analysts said the move signals a “normalization” of diplomatic engagement between the world’s two largest economies, shifting away from ad-hoc encounters at international summits. While officials from both sides described the talks as productive, they acknowledged that much of the hard work lies ahead. Trump and Xi directed lower-level negotiators to hammer out the technical details of the trade and security understandings reached in principle — including tariff adjustments, fentanyl cooperation, and technology export rules. Quote of note: “The fact that both leaders agreed on a structured follow-up process is itself a positive,” one senior U.S. official said after the meeting. “But the next several weeks will determine whether the momentum holds.” —Powell cautions on December rate cut amid data blackoutFed Chair says lack of official economic data could make policymakers more cautious heading into the next meeting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned investors Wednesday that another interest rate cut at the Dec.  9–10 meeting “is not a foregone conclusion — far from it.” Link to special report. While the Fed followed through on its September plan to cut interest rates by a quarter point to a target range of 3.75%–4.00%, Powell signaled that the ongoing government shutdown has complicated the central bank’s outlook. With federal statistical agencies unable to release key data since Oct. 1, policymakers have been forced to rely on private-sector indicators from firms such as PriceStats and Adobe, as well as ADP wage data and regional bank surveys. Powell acknowledged these substitutes only go so far. “I don’t think we will have a granular understanding of the economy while this [government] data is not available,” he said. The lack of official readings on jobs, consumer spending, and inflation could make the Fed more cautious at upcoming meetings. “If you’re driving in the fog, you slow down,” Powell said, hinting that the data blackout might justify a pause in rate moves. While stressing that the Fed would continue to “collect every scrap of data” it can, Powell left open the possibility that uncertainty from the shutdown could “make sense to be more cautious about moving forward.”

FINANCIAL MARKETS

—Equities today: Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight, while U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly lower openings.U.S. equities slipped as traders navigated the U.S./China truce, mixed tech earnings and a cautious Fed. There’s another flood of earnings today, including Apple and Amazon after the close.As expected, the Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter percentage point to support a softening labor market. Jerome Powell said lowering borrowing costs again in December is “far from” a foregone conclusion as he highlighted differing views among policymakers. New Governor Stephen Miran favored a half-point reduction, while Jeff Schmid preferred no cut at all. Treasuries extended losses and the dollar advanced. In Asia, Japan flat. Hong Kong -0.2%. China -0.7%. India -0.7%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.6%. Paris -0.8%. Frankfurt -0.2%.

—Equities yesterday: 

Equity Index	Closing Price  Oct. 29	Point Difference  from Oct. 28	% Difference  from Oct. 28
Dow	47,632.74	-73.63	-0.15%
Nasdaq	23,902.28	+74.79	+0.31%
S&P 500	6,882.03	-8.86	-0.13%

—Did the Fed weaken the bullish argument?

Sevens Report says Powell’s hawkish tone won’t derail the rally

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s surprise pushback on expectations for a December rate cut prompted investors to question whether the central bank had just undermined the bullish case for equities. But according to the Sevens Report, the answer is a clear “no.”

Powell’s remarks — that a December cut is “not for sure, far from it” — slashed market-implied odds of a cut from over 90% to roughly 55%. Yet the Sevens Report notes that the broader rationale for the market’s strength remains intact. “It’s not so much which month the Fed cuts rates as it is the fact that they are still cutting rates,” the report said.

Easing bias remains in place. Despite Powell’s tougher tone, the official FOMC statement kept forward guidance unchanged and maintained a clear easing bias — evidence, according to the Sevens Report, that the committee’s consensus still favors additional rate reductions. “While Powell pushed back on expectations for a December rate cut, it’s entirely possible we still get one,” the authors wrote, emphasizing that the broader rate-cutting cycle “has not ended.”

AI still the dominant driver. The report underscored that the No. 1 force powering equities remains artificial intelligence. “AI enthusiasm has shifted into overdrive,” it said, pointing to daily multi-billion-dollar investment announcements and partnerships among major tech firms. Even with mixed quarterly results from Microsoft, Meta, and Google, each company reaffirmed large capital-expenditure plans that “ensure continued stimulus for the economy and markets.”

The Sevens Report observed that while the equal-weighted S&P 500 is down for the month due to weak earnings outside tech, the cap-weighted index remains higher — “thanks almost exclusively to strength in AI-linked tech stocks.” Powell’s comments, it added, are unlikely to dull that enthusiasm.

Other supports still in place. Beyond AI, the publication reaffirmed the four key pillars of the rally:

• AI enthusiasm

• Solid economic growth

• Ongoing Fed rate cuts

• Stable trade dynamics

Of these, AI remains “by far, the most important.” With all major tech players maintaining aggressive spending, the report concluded that “while the market could dip given the recent run-up,” Powell’s hedging on December “doesn’t reduce the tailwind on risk assets.”

—CBO warns shutdown’s economic impact could cost up to $14 billion in lost output

Analysis finds extended government lapse could trim Q4 GDP growth by up to two percentage points

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a quantitative analysis (link) detailing the potential economic fallout of the ongoing U.S. gov’t shutdown under three duration scenarios — four, six, and eight weeks. The report, sent to House Budget Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-Tex.), projects a substantial but mostly temporary hit to economic activity, warning that up to $14 billion in output may be permanently lost depending on the shutdown’s length.

Three scenarios, one clear conclusion: Growth takes a hit. CBO estimates that annualized real GDP growth in Q4 2025 will decline by 1.0 percentage point if the shutdown ends after four weeks, 1.5 points after six weeks, and 2.0 points after eight weeks. While most of the delayed spending and production would rebound once federal operations resume, the agency projects $7 billion to $14 billion in unrecoverable economic losses due to workweeks lost by furloughed employees.

The analysis finds that real GDP in Q4 2025 would be $18 billion lower under a four-week scenario, $28 billion lower after six weeks, and $39 billion lower if the shutdown extended to eight weeks. In each case, the economy would rebound modestly in early 2026 as delayed spending is made up, but CBO stresses that the lost labor hours cannot be recovered.

Federal spending delays: $33–$74 billion held back. The shutdown’s most immediate effect is a sharp delay in federal outlays. CBO projects $33 billion in delayed spending under a four-week lapse, $54 billion under six weeks, and $74 billion under eight weeks. That includes frozen employee compensation, paused federal contracts for goods and services, and potential interruptions to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits if the shutdown extends into November.

The agency’s modeling assumes roughly 650,000 federal employees furloughed and another 600,000 deemed “excepted” and working without pay. Although all affected workers are expected to receive retroactive pay, the temporary halt in income is expected to suppress consumer spending and weaken near-term aggregate demand.

Labor market: Temporary Spike in Unemployment. If furloughed federal employees are counted as unemployed, the jobless rate could rise by up to 0.4 percentage points for October. The CBO notes this impact should fade quickly once funding resumes, though the temporary shortfall in demand could ripple briefly into the private sector, depressing hiring and output.

Methodology and uncertainty. CBO based its analysis on a framework refined after the 2018–2019 five-week shutdown, updating assumptions about agency spending patterns, biweekly pay schedules, and household consumption behavior. The model incorporates a demand multiplier of 1.2 over four quarters, reflecting how delayed government spending affects private consumption and investment.

However, the agency cautions that the actual effects could vary widely depending on administrative decisions — including how many employees are furloughed and whether key benefits like SNAP continue. “The effects of the shutdown will depend on decisions made by the Administration throughout the shutdown,” CBO Director Phillip Swagel wrote to lawmakers.

Bottom Line: Even a relatively short shutdown leaves measurable scars on the economy. While much of the lost output may be regained once the government reopens, the CBO’s Oct. 29 analysis underscores the cumulative cost of political gridlock — both in billions of dollars and in the thousands of lost workweeks across the federal workforce.
 

AG MARKETS

—Brazil’s soybean processing to hit record 60 million tons in 2025/26

Rabobank sees rising domestic demand, stable exports, and biodiesel-driven industrial growth

Brazil is set to reach a record 60 million tons of soybean crushing in the 2025/26 season, according to a Rabobank forecast. The increase — up from 58 million tons in the prior year — underscores Brazil’s growing role as a global oilseed processing hub alongside the U.S. and China.

Rabobank projects soybean output will rise 3% to 177 million tons, driven by expanded acreage in Mato Grosso, Goiás, and Bahia and better weather conditions. While exports will hold steady at 111 million tons, a larger share of production will feed domestic processors to meet rising demand for vegetable oil, protein meal, and biodiesel.

The report highlights a strategic shift in Brazil’s soybean sector — from primarily exporting raw beans to industrializing its oilseed output. Major agribusinesses including Bunge, Cargill, ADM, and Cofco are expanding and modernizing plants to capture the growing demand for soybean oil used in biofuels and protein meal for livestock feed.

Brazil’s National Biodiesel Program (PNPB), which will lift the mandatory biodiesel blend to B15 in 2026, is also a key demand driver. Soybean oil already accounts for more than 70% of the country’s biofuel feedstock.

Rabobank noted that farmer profitability could improve if global soybean prices remain firm, though La Niña-related weather risks persist in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul. Still, the central-west region is expected to benefit from improved moisture and high-yielding seed varieties.

With a robust harvest, steady exports, and surging industrial capacity, Brazil is consolidating its leadership in the global soybean complex, strengthening its role as a critical supplier of plant-based proteins and biofuel feedstocks to markets in China, the EU, and Southeast Asia.

—Agriculture markets yesterday:

Commodity	Contract  Month	Closing Price  Oct. 29	Change from  Oct. 28
Corn	Dec	$4.34	+2¢
Soybeans	Jan	$10.94½	−¾¢
Soybean Meal	Dec	$308.70	+$2.20
Soybean Oil	Dec	50.16¢	−10 pts
Wheat (SRW)	Dec	$5.32¼	+3¼¢
Wheat (HRW)	Dec	$5.22¾	+2¾¢
Spring Wheat	Dec	$5.60½	−1¼¢
Cotton	Dec	66.01¢	+96 pts
Live Cattle	Dec	$230.90	+$4.325
Feeder Cattle	Jan	$334.025	+$9.15
Lean Hogs	Dec	$80.775	−5¢

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

—Oil prices eased Thursday despite Trump saying he would lower tariffs on China after his meeting with Xi amid skepticism it marked an end to the trade war.

 Brent crude futures fell 0.82% to $64.39 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 0.76% to $60.02.

—Oil prices rebounded Wednesday on strong U.S. inventory draw, trade optimism

Crude markets find support as Trump/Xi talks lift sentiment and U.S. stockpiles tighten

Oil prices climbed on Wednesday after U.S. data revealed a much steeper drop in crude and fuel inventories than anticipated, reinforcing hopes of tightening supply. Brent crude rose $0.52, 0.8%, to $64.92 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained $0.33, 0.6%, to $60.48.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, crude inventories fell by nearly 7 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations for a modest decline. Gasoline and distillate stocks also saw substantial drawdowns, signaling firmer demand across the fuel complex and prompting traders to scale back expectations of a near-term surplus.

Analysts said the data pointed to a more balanced market despite record U.S. production and rising OPEC+ output. The gains were reinforced by renewed optimism over trade relations after President Donald Trump said he expected a “good outcome” from his upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, where the two leaders are set to discuss tariffs and technology restrictions.

The improved sentiment offset Tuesday’s losses, when prices slid nearly 2% amid worries that OPEC+ might further raise production. The group’s ministers are due to meet in early December to consider a potential 137,000 barrel-per-day increase as they weigh market share goals against fragile global demand.

TRADE POLICY

—Senate vote to end Brazil tariffs doomed beyond upper chamber

House delay and certain Trump veto block path to repeal of 50% import duties

The Senate voted 52–48 to repeal the additional 50% tariffs the U.S. imposed on imports from Brazil, but the move is expected to stall beyond the chamber. The House has postponed any action on Trump-era tariff measures until at least March 2026 and, even then, the repeal faces little chance of advancing.

Of note: Even if the House were to approve ending the national emergency declaration President Trump used to justify the tariffs, the president has made clear he would veto the measure — and lawmakers lack the two-thirds majority needed to override that veto.

—WTO clears EU retaliation on U.S. olives dispute

EU authorized to target $13.6 million in American exports after U.S. noncompliance finding

A World Trade Organization (WTO) arbitrator on Wednesday authorized the European Union to impose tariffs on $13.64 million worth of U.S. goods after determining that Washington failed to comply with an earlier ruling against its countervailing duties on ripe olives from Spain.

The decision stems from a 2021 WTO ruling that found U.S. countervailing duties violated global trade rules by improperly concluding that Spanish olive growers benefited from subsidies tied to European Union agricultural programs. Despite U.S. claims of compliance, the arbitrator agreed with Brussels that Washington had not fully addressed the violations.

The EU can now move forward with retaliatory tariffs up to the authorized level, though it has not yet announced which U.S. products will be targeted. The olive case, initiated in 2018, has been a long-running point of contention between the two trading partners and comes amid broader tensions over agricultural subsidies and food labeling.

Trade analysts said the modest dollar amount reflects the limited size of the dispute but underscores ongoing frictions over how the U.S. applies its countervailing duty laws to EU farm goods — a sensitive issue as both sides explore cooperation in other trade areas.

CONGRESS

—Senate optimism grows amid lingering shutdown gridlock

Bipartisan talks pick up as both parties feel pressure from expiring benefits and looming elections

Senators from both parties are expressing cautious optimism that the month-long government shutdown could end as soon as next week, even as neither side appears ready to yield ground. Conversations among rank-and-file members have intensified, suggesting at least a flicker of movement after 30 days of stalemate.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said he’s been engaging with Democrats to find a path forward, while Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) reported a “significant uptick in bipartisan conversations,” adding that cross-party dialogue is the only way to end the impasse.

Democrats argue that cracks are forming in GOP ranks as Americans begin receiving notices of higher premiums following the expiration of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies. Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) noted that the impact is hitting hardest in Republican-leaning districts, urging the GOP to “fight for their own people.” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) suggested that next week’s off-year elections could pressure Republicans to negotiate, predicting that “real-world impacts” may soon force a solution.

Republicans counter that Democrats will face mounting pressure as millions risk losing access to federal nutrition and childcare programs, including SNAP and WIC. Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) warned that “TSA not getting paid, and now SNAP recipients not getting benefits” make it untenable to continue without action.

At the same time, appropriators are reviving discussions about using a new spending package to reopen the government. Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) said talks are centering on a potential three-bill “minibus” that could pair the Defense, Labor-HHS-Education, and Transportation-HUD appropriations bills. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) voiced optimism that Democrats are recognizing the need to pass appropriations to retain influence, while Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) stressed that progress requires leadership-level engagement.

Despite rising optimism, no clear breakthrough has emerged — and both parties remain convinced the other will blink first. ObamaCare prices will go up by about 30% for a typical plan if Congress doesn’t extend subsidies, new data shows. The subsidies are a sticking point in the shutdown.

NOMINATIONS

—Surgeon general hearing postponed as nominee goes into labor. President Donald Trump’s nominee for surgeon general, Dr. Casey Means, was unable to appear for her Senate confirmation hearing after going into labor, according to a spokesperson for the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. The hearing, which was to be held virtually, will be rescheduled to a later date.

—Senate grills ag nominees on USDA overhaul, staffing, and rulemaking

Food safety, Hill outreach, beef trade with Argentina, and SNAP data oversight take center stage

— USDA reorg & workforce: Senators pressed multiple nominees on the department’s reorganization plan and staff retention amid an extended shutdown backdrop and ongoing vacancies.

— Mindy Brashears (Food Safety): Told Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) that a “top priority” is finalizing higher line speeds in meat plants — picking up work she led during Trump 1.0.

— Yvette Herrell (Assistant Sec. for Congressional Relations): Assured Senate Ag Ranking Member Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) she’ll continue truly bipartisan briefings, after Democrats were previously left out of USDA shutdown briefings.

— Julie Callahan (Chief Ag Negotiator, USTR): Said Trump’s plan to allow Argentine beef imports would be structured as a “two-way” arrangement, with opportunities to expand U.S. beef access in Argentina. Link for special report.

— John Walk (USDA Inspector General): Pressed by Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) on whether he would notify Congress about the legality of SNAP personal data collection; Walk signaled he would evaluate and report findings to lawmakers.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Strengthening storm system to bring widespread showers and

thunderstorms as well as gusty winds and the risk for coastal flooding to the Northeast Thursday… …Widespread cool, well below average afternoon highs and chilly morning lows continue from the Southeast to the central/southern Plains… …Pacific storm system/atmospheric river to bring heavy rain to the Pacific Northwest Friday.