More Details & Analysis Surface Re: Chinese Buys of U.S. Soybeans
Some observers think gov’t shutdown will end next week after Tuesday elections
Link: Vaden Talks Shutdown, SNAP, Beef Prices, Aid and China Trade on AgriTalk
Link: FMC Shares Plunge 45% After Dividend Cut, India Write-Down
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 24, updated later today
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 24, updated later today
Today’s Updates:
POLITICS & SHUTDOWN
— Trump calls on Republicans to use ‘nuclear option’ to end filibuster
— Senate adjourns; shutdown likely into next week; post-Nov. 4 path?
— Of note: Speaker Johnson & Sec. Rollins presser 10 a.m. ET, Day 31
TRAVEL
— Airlines warn of holiday travel turmoil amid shutdown; Vance, Duffy urge action
U.S./CHINA TRADE & AGRICULTURE
— U.S./China working groups to hammer out agriculture & tariff details
— China expands U.S. soybean purchases after Trump/Xi talks
— USTR Greer: trade and foreign policy now “inseparable” under Trump strategy
— Greer reaffirms USTR will continue Section 301 investigation into China’s
unfulfilled obligations from Phase One deal
— Details and perspective on Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans
— China insists buys at “market prices,” seen as potential loophole
— China’s Ministry of Commerce outlines mutual tariff/export-control suspensions
— FT: China emerges as U.S. “peer rival” at Xi–Trump summit
— Quote of note: Bill Bishop says pause isn’t a fundamental improvement
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: choppy trading; tech beats lift U.S. futures
— Equities yesterday: Dow/Nasdaq/S&P declined
— Tech rally led by Amazon and Apple
CORPORATE
— Corteva declares quarterly dividend; EIDP announces preferred payouts
AG MARKETS
— HPAI confirmations continue; 3.85M birds affected in past 30 days
— Brazil shrugs off U.S./China soybean deal as seasonal trade
— Brazil beef exports set new October record
— Agriculture markets yesterday: price board
FARM POLICY
— USDA diverts $13B from CCC to tariff-relief account; core programs sidelined
— Potential trade-related aid depends on market response; MFP “teed up”
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil heads for third straight monthly drop
— Oil prices steadied Thursday amid trade optimism and supply concerns
— U.S. ready to sell more oil and gas to China
— Senate moves to open more Alaska lands for drilling
— Clean Fuels urges EPA to fully reallocate exempted RFS volumes
ANIMAL HEALTH / LIVESTOCK
— Mexico and U.S. still lack date to resume cattle exports amid screwworm outbreak
TRADE POLICY
— Senate again votes to repeal Trump tariffs; effort expected to stall in House
— Farm groups urge caution on USMCA renewal
CHINA ECONOMY
— China factory activity contracts for seventh straight month (PMI 49.0)
FOOD & GROCERY
— Judge weighs SNAP funding; contingency fund likely, shortfall looms
— U.S. grocers brace for sales hit as SNAP aid lapses
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
— U.S. and China suspend port fees amid negotiations
— Senate Commerce panel examines revival of U.S. shipbuilding
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: heavy PNW rains; mostly dry Halloween; below-average temps East
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Oct. 31, 2025
UP FRONTShutdown & Senate — Trump urges GOP to use the “nuclear option” to end the filibuster; Senate adjourns until Monday, pushing shutdown into next week with post–Nov. 4 movement possible. Note: Speaker Mike Johnson and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins hold a 10 a.m. ET presser (Day 31).Holiday travel risk — Airlines warn of Thanksgiving chaos as unpaid FAA/TSA staffing thins; VP Vance and Sec. Duffy press Congress to reopen government.U.S./China: Ag & tariffs — Working groups set to finalize a “substantial” one-year framework; Beijing signals resuming U.S. sorghum/lumber buys and rolling back retaliatory tariffs on chicken, wheat, pork, dairy; China booked at least four more U.S. soybean cargoes.USTR Greer’s line — Trade and foreign policy now “inseparable”; Southeast Asia deals used to boost leverage with China; fentanyl benchmarks coming; ag purchases to be tracked in real time; 301 probe continues.Soybean deal debate — Floor set at 12 MMT by January plus ~25 MMT/yr thereafter; critics say targets are low vs. recent history and include a “market price” clause; ASA calls them minimums; traders expect China to cut an extra 10% soybean tariff, but U.S. beans still face 13% tariff.Farmer aid outlook — USDA shifted ~$13B from CCC to a tariff-relief account, sidelining some farm-bill programs for now. Secretary Rollins/Vaden signal a post-shutdown aid package as a possible “bridge to next year,” size contingent on market response to new China buys; Sen. Hoeven says an MFP-style program is “teed up” but frozen by the shutdown.Markets — Tech-led tone: Amazon +12% on AWS reacceleration; Apple guides to strong holidays. Futures firmer after yesterday’s broad declines. Corteva declares $0.18 dividend.Energy — Oil heads for a third monthly drop on strong USD, weak China data, rising supply; prices steadied Thursday. U.S. signals more oil/gas sales to China if it trims Russian buys. Senate votes to reopen more Alaska lands to leasing. Clean Fuels urges EPA to fully reallocate exempted RFS volumes/ Ag disease & trade — HPAI confirmations continue (commercial turkeys plus notable broiler/layer cases). Mexico/U.S. still lack a date to resume live-cattle exports amid screwworm; testing higher-output sterile-fly modules.Brazil ag — Producers downplay U.S./China soybean deal as seasonal; credit/dryness weigh on outlook. Brazil’s October beef exports hit a record, exceeding Oct. ’24 totals.Trade policy — Senate again votes to roll back Trump tariffs, but efforts expected to stall in House and face veto. Farm groups urge extreme caution in USMCA review to preserve zero-tariff access.Food aid shock — Judge likely to order USDA to tap SNAP contingency fund, but only ~$5.5B vs. ~$9B needed for November; partial/delayed payments likely. Grocers brace for an ~$8B sales hit if SNAP lapses.Ports & shipbuilding — U.S. and China suspend reciprocal port fees for a year amid talks. Senate Commerce hearing spotlights economic and national security need to revive U.S. shipbuilding; support for SHIPS for America Act and stronger Jones Act enforcement.China macro — NBS Manufacturing PMI falls to 49.0 (7th straight contraction), with weaker orders, exports, and prices.Weather — Heavy Pacific Northwest rain Fri–Sat; largely dry Halloween; below-normal temps from Plains to East, warmer Rockies/West Coast. —Trump calls on Republicans to use ‘nuclear option’ and get rid of Senate filibuster. President Trump on Thursday called on Senate Republicans to initiate the “nuclear option” and get rid of the filibuster, allowing them to end the government shutdown and pass legislation with a simple majority. “It is now time for the Republicans to play their ‘TRUMP CARD,’ and go for what is called the Nuclear Option — Get rid of the Filibuster, and get rid of it, NOW!” Trump posted on Truth Social. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) suggested earlier this month that the party wouldn’t trigger the so-called nuclear option to push funding legislation forward. Thune repeated his opposition to the move and told Politico that he “had not had that conversation” when asked if the White House was pushing for it. The Senate adjourned Thursday which signals the shutdown now will last into next week. Some expect the odds for ending the shutdown could rise after the Nov. 4 elections which do not feature broad national elections. Some are suggesting that after the elections, there could be an agreement reached to reopen the government but even that may not be assured. The House remains out and the Senate adjourned Thursday and will return on Monday.Of note: House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins will hold a press conference on Day 31 of the government shutdown at 10 am ET. —Airlines warn of holiday travel turmoil amid gov’t shutdownVance, Duffy urge Congress to act as staffing shortages threaten record Thanksgiving travel With just weeks before what could be the busiest Thanksgiving air travel period ever, airlines are urging Congress to end the gov’t shutdown so air traffic controllers and TSA agents can be paid. Many FAA employees have missed paychecks this month, leading to staffing shortages as more workers call out sick. Vice President JD Vance and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned Thursday that Americans could face a travel “disaster” and “massive delays” if the shutdown continues into the holidays. Their comments followed a White House roundtable Vance hosted with aviation, travel, and union leaders to discuss short-term solutions, including ramping up recruitment of air traffic controllers. —U.S./China working groups to hammer out agriculture & tariff detailsNegotiation mechanics set, ag exports in the spotlight Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary, confirmed on Thursday that the two countries will convene multiple working groups in the “coming weeks” to “nail down details” of a broader trade framework with China. According to a White House official, Beijing has indicated a willingness to:•Resume purchases of U.S. sorghum and lumber.• Withdraw retaliatory tariffs on a range of U.S. agricultural products, including chicken, wheat, pork and dairy.• Increase U.S. agricultural purchases more generally under the emerging framework. Key mechanics of the process:• The working groups will cover both agriculture and tariff/trade issues, placing U.S./China farm-goods flows front and center.• The framework is already characterized by Bessent as “very substantial,” with the U.S. deferring a threatened 100% tariff on Chinese goods and China agreeing to boost U.S. farm-exports.• Agricultural interests gained immediate market response: grain markets rallied amid the announcement of Chinese purchasing commitments. Implications for U.S. agriculture & policy watchers:•Reviving purchases of U.S. sorghum, lumber and other products signals relief for export-oriented sectors that have been affected by Beijing’s trade retaliation.•Removal of retaliatory tariffs on chicken, wheat, pork and dairy would open sizeable export channels — potentially improving producer margins, country-level balance sheets, and rural income dynamics.•The working-group process suggests the agreement will be detailed rather than a high-level political handshake; for ag stakeholders, the devil will be in the product-eligibility, certification, timing and enforcement mechanisms.•From a broader geopolitical angle, the agreement underscores how farm trade and tariffs are now embedded in the strategic U.S.–China competition calculus—linking agriculture with rare-earths, export-controls and industrial policy issues. What to watch next:•Official confirmation from Beijing about which tariffs will be dropped and when.• A detailed U.S. Agriculture/Commerce/USTR joint statement specifying volumes, timelines and product-language (for example, whether sorghum and lumber purchases are new or resume existing flows).•Commodity-market reactions: look for movement in pork/chicken/wheat basis levels, lumber futures, as well as sorghum export booking trends. —China expands U.S. soybean purchases after Trump/Xi talksBeijing buys at least four more cargoes for late-2025 and early-2026 delivery China purchased at least four additional U.S. soybean cargoes following trade talks between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke with Bloomberg. The shipments are slated for delivery later this year and into early 2026, extending a buying spree that began immediately after the leaders’ meeting. The renewed Chinese demand underscores tentative progress in the year-long framework deal the two sides announced in Busan, which included commitments on agricultural purchases and tariff adjustments. Traders said the new sales likely total several hundred thousand metric tons and will provide a near-term boost for U.S. Gulf and Pacific Northwest export terminals amid competitive pressure from Brazil’s upcoming harvest.—USTR Greer: Trade and foreign policy now “inseparable” under Trump’s global strategyUSTR Jamieson Greer tells Kudlow that Southeast Asia deals strengthen U.S. leverage with China, outlines fentanyl benchmarks, agricultural enforcement, and continued 301 probe In an interview with Fox Business host Larry Kudlow, U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer described the Trump administration’s approach to trade and foreign policy as “inseparable,” highlighting the White House’s coordinated strategy to realign global trade rules while reinforcing national security objectives. The discussion came just after President Trump’s high-profile meetings across Asia and his 90-minute session with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea. Greer said the trip “made the U.S. presence known” and rallied partners around a “new global trade order” that combines market access, strategic deterrence, and defense cooperation. Asia-Pacific trade alignment and strategic leverage. Greer said President Trump’s recent trip through the eastern Pacific, Southeast Asia, and Northeast Asia was designed not just to “wave the flag,” but to rally friends and partners around a shared trade-security agenda. He cited new bilateral accords with Malaysia and Cambodia that lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers, strengthen cooperation against transshipment and circumvention, and include “elements of economic security.” “These are not symbolic agreements,” Greer told Kudlow. “They include detailed commitments on tariff reductions, enforcement coordination, and even defense-related provisions.” He added that these deals gave the U.S. a “very strong hand” heading into the Trump/Xi summit, signaling to Beijing that Washington has credible alternatives throughout the Indo-Pacific. Fentanyl commitments and tariff leverage. On the opioid crisis, Greer said Trump’s decision to halve fentanyl-related tariffs from 20% to 10% was intended to maintain leverage while securing Chinese cooperation on chemical precursors. He confirmed that the U.S. and China will form a joint working group to set benchmarks and milestones for compliance. “We still have leverage on this point,” he said. “Half the tariffs remain in place to make sure the Chinese follow through on their obligations.” Greer said the task force will include agencies such as the Department of Homeland Security and U.S. intelligence services to trace supply chains and ensure enforcement. He credited Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for spearheading interagency coordination on the issue. Agricultural trade: “We’ll monitor this like a hawk.” Agriculture was a central topic of Kudlow’s questioning, as both men reflected on China’s missed purchase targets under the original Phase One trade deal. Kudlow warned that Beijing had “sold us out last time,” and pressed Greer on what safeguards were now in place. Greer confirmed that USTR and USDA are jointly managing a real-time monitoring system to track Chinese imports of U.S. soybeans and other commodities. “We have an ag division at USTR, and of course USDA,” Greer said. “These people run the stats all the time — I look at them frequently.” He noted that China’s state-directed system makes such tracking feasible: “They’re used to managing their economy and doing directed purchases. It’s something they can do, and it’s something we can monitor and assess.” Greer said the one-year trade framework announced in Busan will serve as a confidence-building test for Beijing’s willingness to meet tangible agricultural goals. Both he and Kudlow referenced soybeans, corn, and energy products as key categories under review. At the same time, Greer linked agricultural trade to broader geostrategic diversification. Several of the Southeast Asian deals signed during the trip — notably with Malaysia, Cambodia, and Thailand — include new agricultural market-access provisions, sanitary-standard cooperation, and transshipment controls intended to lessen U.S. dependence on Chinese imports. “When we can open those markets, it strengthens our position going into negotiations with China,” Greer said. He characterized the approach as “confidence-building through accountability,” arguing that farm exports are the earliest and most measurable indicator of China’s sincerity. “If they follow through, it’s a win for both sides. If they don’t, we have other tools,” Greer concluded. One-year framework and managed decoupling. Asked whether the new arrangement marked a permanent thaw or merely a temporary truce, Greer said the answer “is in China’s hands.” He described the agreement as a one-year “confidence-building step,” emphasizing that Washington remains open to “mutually beneficial” trade in non-sensitive goods, but retains the option to re-escalate if progress stalls. “President Trump wants a great relationship with China,” he said, “but one built on fairness.” Kudlow characterized the deal as a “de-escalation,” while Greer portrayed it as a “managed decoupling” phase designed to test the limits of cooperation without sacrificing leverage. Russian oil and 301 investigation. Greer confirmed that Russian oil and the Ukraine conflict were discussed in the Trump/Xi meeting. “The discussion was wide-ranging,” he said, noting that Treasury’s sanctions “have had a real effect” and that both leaders agreed on the importance of ending the war. He also reaffirmed that the USTR will continue its Section 301 investigation into China’s unfulfilled obligations from the Phase One deal. “We didn’t solve every problem in the U.S./China relationship today,” Greer said, “but we got cooperation on fentanyl, resumed rare-earth purchases, and made real progress.” Closing exchange. Kudlow closed the segment by congratulating Greer, Treasury Secretary Bessent, and President Trump for what he called “a great success.” Greer replied that the administration’s strategy is not about “flag-waving” but about anchoring U.S. leadership in the Indo-Pacific through enforceable trade and security commitments. “The trip showed that trade policy and foreign policy are no longer separate silos,” Greer said. “They hold each other up — and together, they define America’s global strength.”  President Trump greeting Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week in South Korea. Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters —Details and perspective on Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans. Key issue: Floor or ceiling for Chinese purchase commitments for soybeans? Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China would buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans between now and January. That means this amount needs to be contracted for and on the books before the end of this calendar year. That was confirmed by USDA Deputy Secretary Steven Vaden in an interview with AgriTalk (link). Vaden: “Yes — 12 million metric tons by year-end for the 2025-26 marketing year, plus a commitment of 25 million metric tons in subsequent years (annually/calendar year). These are minimums, not ceilings — a baseline for growth. China will purchase more than in 2024 and 2023, giving farmers a solid demand floor going forward.” Did Trump’s team go too low on China’s soybean purchase commitments? Some observers think so. The following chart shows U.S. soybean exports to China on a calendar year basis, in million metric tons:  Here is a look at historical purchases by marketing year rather than calendar year:  Some observers think the 12-million-ton purchase commitment between now and January is too low. Why? That would still give China the opportunity to continue purchases of 2025 crop soybeans beyond the 12 MMT minimum into early 2026 and before new crop South American soybeans are available. Soybean industry analysts estimate that China’s needs before new crop South American soybeans are available is around 19 MMT to avoid tapping into reserves. Those same sources think the calendar year 25 MMT purchase commitment over the next three years is also too low based on the history of purchases shown in the chart above. The average purchases during the Biden administration were around 27 MMT annually, above the 25 MMT current commitment. Trump administration sources say this is a floor and not a ceiling, but some industry contacts believe from China’s standpoint, it will be a ceiling because of cheaper Brazilian soybeans. “Everything I’ve heard so far is that the so-called deal brings us back to the status quo from the day before President Trump was put in office,” said Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.). “So, if all you did for nine months was create problems, have sloppy policy, and then your big deal is just to bring us back to where we were before you started, I’m not sure that’s what I’d call the art of the deal.”Of note: Traders and crushers expect China to roll back an additional 10% tariff on US soybeans, which was implemented earlier this year as part of countermeasures against Washington — though Beijing hasn’t been explicit on this yet. However, even with that cut, American cargoes would still incur 13% duties, making them uncompetitive with Brazil, the Asian nation’s top supplier. The American Soybean Association (ASA) said the promised purchases are lower than China’s purchases in the past. ASA said it is “encouraged that these commitments are framed as minimums and looks forward to continued growth in soybean purchases beyond these levels… China has historically purchased 25 to 30 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in recent years, and today’s commitments lay a strong foundation to return to those traditional volumes over the coming marketing years.” An analysis by the economic research firm Veda Partners recalled that in the 2020 trade deal that Trump reached with China in his first term, China committed to buying about 142 million tons of U.S. soybeans over two years. In the agreement on Thursday, it committed to 87 million tons across four years. At current prices China’s four-year spending commitment on soybeans is about $34.2 billion, according to Veda’s estimates. That is far less than the approximately $56.4 billion that China had agreed to in the earlier deal. “For U.S. soybean farmers, the promise of enhanced sales to China as a result of the first trade war was a mirage,” said Henrietta Treyz, director of economic policy at Veda Partners. “Soybeans markets and farmers are finding the deal ‘underwhelming’ in part due to the short-term and transitory nature of the deal that doesn’t ink permanence or provide a lot of details around specific timing for future purchases.” —China this week booked its first soybean shipments of the new marketing year, but the agreement appears to include a potential loophole. According to the Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with Beijing’s position, Chinese negotiators are again expected to insist that purchases be made only at “market prices.” That phrasing is widely viewed as giving Beijing flexibility to bypass U.S. soybeans if they become uncompetitive on price. “This is a crucial distinction,” Ken Morrison, a commodities trader who follows China closely, told the Journal. “U.S. soybeans have only a brief window of price competitiveness before Brazil’s harvest hits the market.” White House spokesperson Kush Desai downplayed concerns, calling the “market prices” clause standard boilerplate. The provision, Desai said, simply ensures China pays prevailing market rates for soybeans “rather than some arbitrary price floor.” —Are some ag industry analysts and traders “nattering nabobs of negativism”? That’s the phrase former Vice President Spiro Agnew used to refer to the members of the media with whom he had a very acrimonious relationship. Said Agnew: “In the United States today, we have more than our share of the nattering nabobs of negativism. They have formed their own 4-H Club — the ‘hopeless, hysterical hypochondriacs of history.’” Some in the ag sector have noted all sorts of caveats relative to the Chinese commitment to purchase U.S. soybeans and other commodities like sorghum and cotton. The negatives include enforcement concerns, doubt about the level of purchases, while others will not believe the tonnages until they see them in print or they see them from China (see box below). —China’s Ministry of Commerce detailed the outcomes from the meeting: The U.S. side will cancel the 10% so-called “fentanyl tariffs” and suspend, for an additional year, the 24% reciprocal tariffs levied on Chinese goods, including goods from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macao Special Administrative Region, according to a spokesperson of the ministry. China will make corresponding adjustments to its countermeasures against the aforementioned U.S. tariffs, the spokesperson said, noting that both sides have agreed to continue extending certain tariff exclusion measures. The United States will suspend for one year the implementation of a new rule announced on Sept. 29 that expands its “entity-list” export restrictions to any entity that is at least 50% owned by one or more entities on the list. China will suspend the implementation of relevant export control measures announced on Oct. 9 for one year and will study and refine specific plans, the spokesperson said. The U.S. side will suspend the implementation of measures under its Section 301 investigation targeting China’s maritime, logistics and shipbuilding industries for one year. In response, China will correspondingly suspend the implementation of its countermeasures against the U.S. side for one year once the U.S. suspension takes effect, according to the spokesperson. In addition, the two sides also reached consensus on issues including anti-drug cooperation on fentanyl, expanding agricultural product trade, and the handling of individual cases involving relevant enterprises, according to the spokesperson. Both sides further confirmed the outcomes of the Madrid economic and trade talks. The U.S. side made positive commitments in areas such as investment, and China will properly resolve issues related to TikTok with the U.S. side. —FT: China emerges as U.S. ‘peer rival’ at Xi Jinping/Donald Trump summitNewspaper says Beijing demonstrates capacity to force Washington into trade concessions In the recent summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, China stepped out of the role of a subordinate interlocutor and emerged more squarely as a peer capable of pushing the U.S. to compromise, the Financial Times concludes. It says this represents a meaningful shift in the power dynamic between the world’s two largest economies. Xi framed the relationship with Trump around shared ambition: “I always believe that China’s development should go hand in hand with your vision to make America great again,” he told Trump, according to the FT. China has repeatedly forced Washington into the negotiating zone by using economic levers — notably through export-control threats and rare-earth restrictions that challenged U.S. leverage. The summit yielded a one-year suspension of some new export controls and tariff increases — a sign the FT says the U.S. is treating China as a counterpart rather than a junior partner. But the détente is tactical, not strategic: major structural divisions remain on Taiwan, South China Sea, high-tech competition and broader geopolitical rivalry. Analysts interpret this as China digging in for a long-term contest, leveraging its manufacturing base, critical minerals dominance, and growing resilience to U.S. controls. Implications & Significance For U.S. policy (and U.S. trade-policy watchers):•Washington must recalibrate: it’s no longer simply pressing down on China, but engaging a power that can push back and impose costs.•For the trade agenda, this means U.S. leverage may be lower than assumed — and China will increasingly use its own tools (exports, rare-earths, access) to shape outcomes.•Risk of complacency: U.S. assumption of primacy in high-tech, leadership in global supply chains may be eroding — China is positioning itself as a credible alternative in key domains.•Leaders across U.S. policy (trade, national security, technology) will need to factor in Chinese counter-leverage when designing initiatives (tariffs, export controls, industrial strategy). For China:•Beijing is signaling that it has moved beyond reactive posture and is asserting a full-spectrum strategy of self-reliance + contestation.•The rhetoric of equality — “You and I are at the helm of China/U.S. relations” — underscored by Xi during the summit, reflects a new posture.•But this doesn’t mean China foresees a cooperative future — rather, it is preparing for protracted competition while exploiting openings. Outlook. This summit appears to establish a new baseline: one of more balanced bargaining between the U.S. and China, though not a friendly reset. For U.S. trade strategists and policymakers:• Expect U.S. tariffs and controls to remain tools, but less one-sided; China will fight back and shape terms.• Emerging technologies, critical minerals, supply chains become arenas of sustained cross-border contest.• Short-term reprieves (like the one-year suspension) should not be taken as stable peace — instead as tactical breathing room.• Monitoring China’s high-tech push, rare-earth/critical-minerals strategy and how it uses them as leverage will be crucial. —Quote of note on U.S./China relations from China watcher Bill Bishop at Sinocism: “No one should be under illusions that this latest pause marks a fundamental improvement in U.S./China relations; just go read what we know so far about the forthcoming 15th Five-Year Plan to see how the PRC side is preparing for a long-term struggle with the U.S.” |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Global markets were choppy as investors digested a mixed bag of earnings from nearly all of Big Tech’s “Magnificent Seven,” balancing optimism over massive AI investments against uneven profit results. U.S. equity futures are higher thanks to better-than-expected tech earnings. Apple and Amazon both beat estimates and the stocks are rallying 2% and 12% respectively pre-market and pushing futures higher (see details below). Economically, Chinese PMIs were mixed as the manufacturing PMI slightly missed estimates (49 vs. (E) 49.6). There are no economic reports today but there are two Fed speakers, Logan (9:30 a.m. ET) and Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET) and given Powell’s hawkish surprise earlier in the week, markets will want to hear a dovish tone from both. In Asia, Japan +2.1%. Hong Kong -1.4%. China -0.8%. India -0.6%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.5%. Paris -0.3%. Frankfurt -0.5%.
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Oct. 30 | Point Difference from Oct. 29 | % Difference from Oct. 29 |
| Dow | 47,522.12 | -109.88 | -0.23% |
| Nasdaq | 23,581.14 | -377.33 | -1.57% |
| S&P 500 | 6,822.34 | -68.25 | -0.99% |
—Tech rally led by Amazon and Apple. Amazon shares surged 12% after its cloud division posted its fastest growth in nearly three years, easing investor worries that it was ceding ground to competitors. Sales topped $180 billion last quarter, and its profit soared 38%, to $21.2 billion. Revenues for the Amazon Web Services cloud business, a major profit driver, reached $33 billion for the quarter, up 20% from a year earlier. Andy Jassy, Amazon’s CEO, said the division “is growing at a pace we haven’t seen since 2022.” The company spent more than $34 billion on capital expenditures last quarter. Amazon is on track to exceed $125 billion in capital expenditure investments for the year, mostly on data centers that power cloud computing and AI.
Apple also delivered upbeat results, projecting a strong holiday sales rebound fueled by its latest iPhone lineup. It also notched $101.5 billion in revenues last quarter, a record, and a profit of $26.3 billion. On the downside, its China sales underwhelmed.
—Corteva declares quarterly dividend
Company to pay $0.18 per share on Dec. 15; EIDP also announces preferred stock payouts
Corteva, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors has approved a quarterly common stock dividend of $0.18 per share, payable Dec. 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of Dec. 1, 2025.
In a related move, EIDP, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Corteva and formerly known as E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, declared preferred stock dividends of $1.12½ per share on its $4.50 series and $0.87½ per share on its $3.50 series, both payable January 23, 2026, to stockholders of record on January 8, 2026.
Corteva describes itself as a “global pure-play agriculture company” focused on innovation in seeds, crop protection, and digital solutions, with the goal of enhancing farm productivity and sustainability.
| AG MARKETS |
—HPAI confirmations continue. Confirmed cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) continue to be reported by USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) with 62 confirmed flocks – 29 commercial flocks and 33 backyard flocks – and a total of 3.85 million birds affected over the past 30 days. Most of the cases remain in turkey operations but the past week has seen cases in other commercial operations – 139,000 birds in a commercial broiler production operation in Gordon County, Georgia, on Oct. 24 and 231,000 birds ina commercial table egg layer flock in Sonoma County, California, on Oct. 28.
—Brazil shrugs off U.S./China soybean deal as seasonal trade
Farmers say Beijing’s renewed U.S. buys won’t upend Brazil’s exports, but tight credit and dry weather cloud outlook
Brazilian soybean producers are dismissing concerns that China’s new deal to buy 12 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans will disrupt their dominance in the Chinese market, describing the move as routine seasonal trade. Mauricio Buffon, president of the Brazilian Soybean Producers Association (Aprosoja), said the purchases coincide with the U.S. harvest and low Brazilian stocks, calling it “a movement that happens every year.”
The U.S./China agreement — announced after Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met in South Korea — was hailed by Trump as a victory for U.S. farmers. But Buffon noted it could indirectly benefit Brazil by lifting benchmark prices on the Chicago Board of Trade. He cautioned, however, that domestic conditions are deteriorating, labeling the current season “a crop without money” due to delayed federal credit disbursements and weak government support. More than half of Brazil’s key agricultural financing program remains unfunded, and Buffon warned that without investment in fertilizers and soil correction, output could slump in top-producing states like Mato Grosso and Paraná.
Analysts across the region echoed that sentiment. In Argentina, Zeni brokerage analyst Eugenio Irazuegui told La Nación that while global soybean futures are rising, premiums for South American shipments have softened slightly following the deal. China had already purchased roughly 12 million tonnes from Brazil and Argentina between September and October, about half its seasonal demand.
Despite the renewed U.S. trade, Brazil remains China’s dominant supplier, shipping nearly three-quarters of its soybeans to the mainland — worth almost $44 billion last year — and holding roughly 78% of China’s import share by value in 2025. A Brazilian government official told the South China Morning Post that this “dominance won’t erode quickly,” pointing to China’s long-term sustainability partnerships and continued diversification of agricultural sourcing.
—Brazil beef exports set new record
October shipments surpass all of 2024 as strong global demand lifts prices and revenues
Brazilian beef exports in October 2025 have already outpaced last year’s total, signaling exceptional momentum in the country’s meat trade. According to data from Brazil’s Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex), shipments reached 276,500 tonnes by the fourth week of October, exceeding the 270,200 tonnes exported during the entire month of October 2024.
The daily average of exports surged 25% year over year, to 15,400 tonnes, reflecting robust global demand and Brazil’s growing competitiveness in major markets such as China and the Middle East.
Export revenues followed the same trajectory, totaling $1.527 billion through the fourth week — a 21% increase from $1.259 billion a year earlier. On a daily basis, earnings jumped 48.2%, reaching $84.88 million versus US$57.26 million in 2024.
Adding to the bullish picture, average export prices rose 18.5% to $5,525.8 per tonne, up from $4,661.7 last October. The combination of higher volumes, stronger prices, and sustained international appetite for Brazilian beef underscores the country’s consolidation as one of the world’s top animal-protein suppliers heading into 2026.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Oct. 30 | Change vs. Oct. 29 |
| Corn | December | $4.30¼ | -3¾¢ |
| Soybeans | January | $11.07¾ | +13¼¢ |
| Soybean Meal | December | $315.60 | +$6.90 |
| Soybean Oil | December | 49.65¢ | -51 pts |
| Wheat (SRW) | December | $5.24¼ | -8¢ |
| Wheat (HRW) | December | $5.13 | -9¾¢ |
| Spring Wheat | December | $5.50½ | -10¢ |
| Cotton | December | 65.12¢ | -89 pts |
| Live Cattle | December | $231.10 | +20¢ |
| Feeder Cattle | January | $334.225 | +20¢ |
| Lean Hogs | December | $80.825 | +5¢ |
| FARM POLICY |
—USDA diverts $13 billion from farm support fund to tariff relief account
Core conservation and dairy programs sidelined as funds sit unused
USDA has shifted $13 billion from the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) — its line of credit at the Treasury Department intended to support farmers—into an emergency relief account created to offset President Trump’s tariffs, according to Government Executive. But the money is now largely idle, with no immediate purpose or payment plan in place.
The publication reported that while the transferred funds remain dormant, the move is already having ripple effects inside USDA. Programs authorized under the latest farm bill and normally funded through the CCC are being deprioritized, internal communications show. Among those impacted are the Conservation Reserve Program, which helps farmers convert environmentally sensitive land, and the Dairy Margin Coverage program, which protects producers from sharp declines in milk prices.
Other initiatives, including Marketing Assistance Loans (MALs) for commodity producers, may also be jeopardized, with some USDA agencies operating below capacity due to the funding shortfall.
Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), the top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee, criticized the reallocation, saying President Trump is “taking so much money” from CCC resources that it has “threatened core farm programs.”
—Coming trade-related aid could be impacted by China purchase commitments. Row-crop and cotton producers are feeling stress. USDA Secretary Rollins mentioned a possible aid package once the government reopens. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden was asked by AgriTalk if that is still the plan. Vaden: “Yes — but nothing can move until Congress reopens the government. No appropriations means no money, whether for SNAP recipients or farmers needing bridge support. We are, however, encouraged by President Trump’s new trade announcements — especially with China — and other deals with Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. We’re expanding markets so producers have more buyers.”
So, will the markets’ reaction determine whether financial aid is needed? Vaden: “Precisely. We’ll watch how markets respond. We might need a ‘bridge to next year,’ but its size depends on how the market performs. Soybean futures topping $11 and hitting 15-month highs is a great sign. Farmers prefer market-based returns to Treasury checks, and this rally is driven by trade momentum.”
Bottom line, according to Vaden: “We need to see how the markets respond. And as the Secretary has already noted, we may need to have a bridge to next year, but how many lanes that bridge has is going to be determined by what the market does between now and then.”
| Of note: Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) confirmed to reporters Thursday that a Market Facilitation Program — similar to the $28 billion farmer aid package over two years Trump issued during his first-term trade war — is “all teed up and good to go… “That’s being held up by the shutdown,” Hoeven added. |
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Oil heads for third straight monthly drop
Stronger dollar, weak China data and rising global supply weigh on prices
Oil prices slipped on Friday, positioning for a third consecutive monthly decline as a stronger U.S. dollar, weak Chinese manufacturing data, and rising output from major producers pressured the market. Brent crude futures fell 38 cents, 0.6%, to $64.62 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude declined by the same amount to $60.19.
The dollar’s strength — hovering near three-month highs — made oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, dampening demand. Adding to bearish sentiment, sources told Reuters that Saudi Arabia may cut its December selling prices to Asian buyers to multi-month lows amid plentiful supply.
China’s manufacturing contraction for a seventh straight month further signaled slowing demand, while data showed OPEC+ members ramping up production to gain market share. Both Brent and WTI are set to fall roughly 3.5% in October.
Saudi crude exports hit a six-month high of 6.4 million barrels per day in August, and U.S. production reached a record 13.6 million bpd, according to the Energy Information Administration. OPEC+ members, meanwhile, are leaning toward a modest output increase at their Sunday meeting, having already raised targets by 2.7 million bpd this year.
President Donald Trump said China has agreed to begin purchasing U.S. energy, potentially including a large Alaska oil and gas deal, though analysts remain skeptical that the limited trade deal will meaningfully lift Chinese demand.
—Oil prices steadied Thursday amid trade optimism and supply concerns
Tariff relief between U.S. and China offsets record U.S. output and weak producer earnings
Oil prices were little changed Thursday as traders balanced optimism from U.S./China trade progress against ongoing oversupply concerns. Brent crude edged up $0.08 to $65.00 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate gained $0.09 to $60.57.
President Donald Trump announced a one-year trade deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, cutting U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from 57% to 47% in exchange for renewed Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans, continued rare earth exports, and tighter fentanyl enforcement. While limited in scope, the deal eased market tensions and supported risk sentiment.
Earnings reports from Shell and TotalEnergies highlighted the strain of weaker oil prices, though Shell benefited from strong gas trading margins. The Federal Reserve’s quarter-point rate cut on Wednesday also lent modest support, as lower borrowing costs could boost energy demand. The Fed signaled, however, that further cuts are unlikely this year given the ongoing government shutdown.
Despite Thursday’s stability, crude benchmarks remain down about 3% for October — marking their third straight monthly decline — as U.S. production hit a record 13.6 million barrels per day. Investors are now watching the November 2 OPEC+ meeting, where members are expected to finalize a 137,000-bpd production increase for December, bringing total hikes since April to 2.7 million bpd.
Saudi Arabia’s third-quarter budget deficit widened to 88.5 billion riyals ($23.6 billion), underscoring how sustained low prices are straining top producers’ finances despite efforts to balance supply.
—U.S. ready to sell more oil, gas to China
Energy Secretary Wright says sales depend on Beijing cutting Russian imports
The United States is prepared to expand oil and natural gas exports to China, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Thursday, but only if Beijing reduces its purchases from Russia. “There’s so much space for mutually beneficial deals between the U.S. and China,” Wright said in an interview with Bloomberg Television, emphasizing that the U.S. is the world’s largest oil and gas exporter while China remains the biggest importer.
Wright is expected to travel to Asia within weeks — possibly sooner — following President Donald Trump’s trip to the region this week. Trump said he reached agreements with Chinese President Xi Jinping and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung for expanded purchases of U.S. energy products.
The president also referenced a “very large scale” deal involving Alaskan oil and gas in a post on Truth Social but provided no further details.
—Senate moves to open up more Alaska lands
Measure would overturn Biden-era restrictions on 13.3 million acres of North Slope reserve
The Senate on Thursday approved a resolution to reopen millions of acres in Alaska’s North Slope to oil and gas leasing, voting 52–45 to nullify a 2022 Biden administration rule that barred development on 13.3 million acres of the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska. The 2022 restrictions were aimed at protecting key habitats for migratory birds and caribou herds.
The measure (SJRes. 80) now heads to the House, where a companion resolution sponsored by Rep. Nick Begich (R-Alaska) awaits consideration. If enacted, the resolution would restore access for fossil fuel development across the region, reversing one of President Biden’s signature conservation actions in the Arctic.
—Clean Fuels urges EPA to fully reallocate exempted RFS volumes
Industry group says full accounting of small refinery exemptions essential to protect farmers and biodiesel producers
Clean Fuels Alliance America is calling on the Environmental Protection Agency to finalize its Supplemental Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) rule with complete reallocation of small refinery exemptions (SREs) for 2023 through 2025. The group said the move is vital to prevent erosion of biofuel blending targets and to safeguard the economic interests of farmers, biomass-based diesel producers, and rural communities.
In formal comments, Clean Fuels urged the EPA to project and include 100% of all granted, pending, and expected SREs when setting 2026 and 2027 RFS volumes, arguing that failure to do so would undercut demand for clean fuels. The organization submitted an economic analysis from World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services showing that unaccounted exemptions could reduce biomass-based diesel output by nearly a billion gallons and cost soybean producers up to $7.5 billion in crop value.
“Small refinery exemptions should not come at the expense of clean fuel producers and farmers,” said Kurt Kovarik, Clean Fuels’ vice president of federal affairs. “Accounting for 100% of the exemptions granted and expected is the only way to ensure that robust 2026 and 2027 RFS volumes will be met.”
| NEW WORLD SCREWWORM |
—Mexico, U.S. still without date to resume cattle exports
Binational health cooperation advances as screwworm outbreak halts live-cattle trade
Mexico’s Agriculture Minister Julio Berdegué said Thursday there is still no timeline for resuming live cattle exports to the United States, as both governments continue working to contain a screwworm outbreak that has disrupted cross-border livestock trade since May.
Berdegué, who recently held a video conference with USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, said the two sides agreed to test new mobile modular plants capable of producing up to 20 million sterile flies per week — an expansion of one of the most effective biological tools for eradicating the pest.
USDA maintains restrictions on imports of Mexican cattle to prevent the parasite’s entry, while collaborating with Mexico’s Senasica agency to strengthen field surveillance. The suspension has hit northern Mexican ranchers particularly hard, as they rely on the U.S. market for much of their live animal sales, though exports of processed beef continue.
Officials on both sides expressed optimism that the new eradication measures could speed containment, but Berdegué cautioned that reopening the border will depend on results from ongoing monitoring in the coming weeks.
| TRADE POLICY |
—Senate votes again to repeal Trump tariffs, but effort will stall in House
Another symbolic move as lawmakers seek to roll back emergency tariff powers
The Senate on Thursday approved yet another resolution aimed at ending tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump under his national emergency authority, voting 51–47 to terminate the declaration that allowed reciprocal levies of 10% globally and up to 50% on select nations.
Republican Senators Rand Paul (Ky.), Mitch McConnell (Ky.), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), and Susan Collins (Maine) joined Democrats in support. It follows earlier Senate votes this week to end the 40% tariffs on Brazil and the 35% tariffs on Canada.
However, the measures are unlikely to advance. The House has postponed any consideration of tariff rollbacks until at least March, and even if such bills were to pass, President Trump is expected to veto them — without sufficient support in Congress to override.
—Farm groups urge caution on USMCA renewal
Coalition warns against weakening zero-tariff provisions critical to U.S. agriculture
A coalition of 124 U.S. farm organizations has urged the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative to approach the renewal of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) with extreme care, warning that any changes could risk vital agricultural trade gains. In a letter (link) released by the National Corn Growers Association, the groups emphasized that “many U.S. agricultural commodities benefited from new or expanded market access in both Canada and Mexico,” thanks in large part to the preservation of zero-tariff provisions under the existing pact.
“Any adjustment should be carefully considered in order to avoid negative impacts on agriculture,” the coalition wrote, adding that any measure weakening USMCA would “lessen the strength and value of U.S. agricultural exports at a time when U.S. farmers and ranchers are at risk of losing other export markets.”
The letter concluded with a call to maintain trade certainty and prevent backsliding on current provisions: “It is critical not to backslide on the current provisions of USMCA and ensure that trade certainty is maintained and strengthened.”
Of note: The three countries are set to review their trilateral trade pact next July. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has suggested negotiations on the review could be conducted more on a bilateral basis than trilaterally.
| CHINA |
— China factory activity contracts for seventh straight month
October PMI slips to 49.0 as price competition intensifies and exports weaken
China’s official NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in October, down from 49.8 in September and below expectations of 49.6 — marking the lowest reading since April and the seventh consecutive month of contraction.
The report showed broad-based weakness: output shrank for the first time in six months (49.7 vs. 51.9 in September), new orders fell faster (48.8 vs. 49.7), and foreign sales plunged to 45.9, the steepest drop since April. Manufacturers also cut back on purchases (49.0 vs. 51.6), while employment declined slightly faster (48.3 vs. 48.5).
Despite Beijing’s efforts to spur overseas demand, companies largely resorted to price competition rather than seeing genuine sales growth. Selling prices dropped sharply to 47.5 — the steepest pace since June — even as input cost inflation eased (52.5 vs. 53.2).
Business sentiment also weakened, with confidence falling to a three-month low (52.8 vs. 54.1), underscoring continued pressure on China’s manufacturing sector heading into the final quarter of 2025.
| FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY |
—Judge weighs SNAP funding amid gov’t shutdown standoff
Talwani likely to order USDA to tap contingency fund, but shortfall looms
All eyes are on U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani in Massachusetts, who is weighing whether the administration can suspend Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits amid the ongoing government shutdown. During Thursday’s hearing, states suing the administration argued that an existing contingency fund should be used to keep the program running, while federal attorneys countered that the fund was meant only for disasters.
Talwani, an Obama appointee, signaled she would likely order USDA to use the fund. However, even such a ruling would not fully resolve the issue: USDA estimates more than $9 billion is required for a full month of benefits, while the contingency fund contains only about $5.5 billion. Because SNAP payments are staggered, states could still issue partial November benefits, but delays are expected as state agencies and EBT contractors require advance notice before disbursing funds. The benefits halt is set to take effect Nov. 1 unless a ruling intervenes.
—U.S. grocers brace for sharp sales hit as SNAP aid lapses amid shutdown
Shutdown threatens $8 billion revenue gap for retailers and suppliers; industry warns of ripple effects across food supply chain
U.S. grocery chains and food manufacturers — from Walmart to Smithfield Foods — are preparing for a significant sales decline in November as federal food aid payments are set to lapse due to the ongoing government shutdown. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), serving nearly 42 million Americans, faces suspension starting Nov. 1, marking the first interruption in benefits tied directly to a federal shutdown.
Trade groups and industry leaders warned the lapse could erase as much as $8 billion in grocery revenue, with smaller retailers and low-income communities hit hardest. “It’s not only poor people who are on SNAP who are going to be affected,” said NYU nutrition professor Marion Nestle. “It means the places where they spend the money aren’t going to get that money.”
The National Grocers Association urged Congress to act immediately, warning of “serious consequences for local grocers, their employees, and the food supply chain.” Retailers, already managing thin margins, could see inventory waste from unsold perishables and reduced staffing hours.
Walmart — which captures roughly 26% of all SNAP grocery spending — along with Dollar General and Dollar Tree, faces a potential sales dip of up to 1% in the fourth quarter, according to research firm Bernstein. Packaged-food suppliers like Kraft Heinz, General Mills, and Tyson Foods are also expected to take a modest hit.
Smithfield Foods, the nation’s largest pork processor, said it had factored potential SNAP disruptions into its outlook. “It does affect 40 million households in the U.S.,” CEO Shane Smith said, noting the company is working with retailers to promote affordable products.
Economists warn that smaller community grocers could face outsized stress. “Especially if you’re looking at a small-size grocery store in a low-income area, this is quite concerning,” said Michigan State University’s David Ortega.
The United Food and Commercial Workers Union said its members could see hours and wages cut if SNAP dollars disappear.
Meanwhile, food companies are reassessing their exposure — Kraft Heinz, for instance, has reduced the share of its sales tied to SNAP purchases from 20% in 2022 to 13% this year to mitigate volatility.
Bottom Line: Without swift congressional action to fund USDA programs, industry experts caution, the lapse could deepen consumer strain, fuel regional food insecurity, and weaken an already fragile retail economy heading into the holiday season.
| TRANSPORTATION/LOGISTICS |
—U.S. and China suspend port fees amid trade negotiations
Punitive charges aimed at boosting U.S. shipbuilding paused
The U.S. and China agreed to suspend their respective port fees on one another’s ships, a move signaling progress in ongoing trade negotiations. The fees — introduced by the Trump administration in April to revive the domestic shipbuilding industry — were paused for one year as President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in South Korea.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, speaking aboard Air Force One, confirmed the suspension while emphasizing Washington’s continued commitment to rebuilding U.S. shipbuilding capacity. The fees had originally targeted Chinese-built and -operated vessels after a U.S. investigation found Beijing had gained global maritime dominance through unfair trade practices.
The levies, which took effect Oct. 14, prompted carriers to reroute or reflag ships and even place new orders with Indian shipyards to avoid the charges. The suspension follows a series of conciliatory steps in recent days — including renewed Chinese purchases of U.S. commodities and tariff rollbacks — suggesting momentum toward a broader economic détente.
Separately, Trump announced that South Korea’s Hanwha conglomerate will construct a nuclear submarine at its Philadelphia shipyard, marking what he called “a turning point for American shipbuilding.”
—Senate Commerce Committee examines revival of U.S. shipbuilding industry
Lawmakers and industry leaders call for renewed federal commitment to restore maritime manufacturing capacity
The Senate Commerce Committee held a hearing on Oct. 28 titled “Sea Change: Reviving Commercial Shipbuilding,” where lawmakers and witnesses underscored the urgency of rebuilding America’s shipbuilding capacity. Testimony revealed that the United States now accounts for virtually none of global ocean-going vessel construction, while China produces nearly half of the world’s ships.
Industry experts and government officials warned that this imbalance poses not just economic challenges but also serious national-security risks, noting that modern shipyards, skilled welders, and trained mariners are critical to sustaining sealift and fleet readiness. Witnesses called for coordinated federal investment in shipyard modernization, workforce training, and long-term procurement contracts to revive domestic competitiveness.
Bipartisan committee members voiced support for the SHIPS for America Act and for strengthening enforcement of the Jones Act, which mandates U.S.-built, -owned, and -crewed vessels for domestic trade. Lawmakers from both parties agreed that restoring shipbuilding capacity will require sustained federal commitment and cross-agency collaboration to ensure the United States can meet both commercial and defense maritime needs.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Heavy rains over the Pacific Northwest Friday into Saturday… …Trick or Treating will be dry across much of the Lower 48, except for portions of the Pacific Northwest, northern & central Appalachians, & from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes… …Below average temperatures expected from the Plains into the East; above average temperatures from the High Plains/Rockies to the West coast.
