Calls Mount to Bring Back USDA’s Daily Export Sales “Flash” When Warranted
After a U.S./China soybean pact and restored November crop reports, traders and farm groups are urging USDA to resume same-day sales announcements to reduce market blind spots
Calls are growing across the grain trade for USDA to restore its same-day (“daily”) export sales announcements whenever thresholds are met, arguing the market needs timely confirmation of big deals — especially with China pledging fresh purchases of U.S. soybeans and other farm goods. The push follows the Trump/Xi understanding under which China committed to near-term buys (12 MMT through January) and multi-year annual soybean purchases (25 MMT), a development that immediately raised the stakes for transparent reporting.
The pressure intensified as USDA found funding to deliver November’s Crop Production and WASDE on Nov. 14, even as other data had been disrupted during the shutdown. NASS’ Oct. 31 notice confirms the Crop Production report and the World Agricultural Outlook Board’s WASDE will publish together that day — reassuring markets that at least the flagship monthly snapshot is back on the calendar. Indications are that some of the data was needed for activities by the Farm Service Agency, such as the milk output data being a component for some dairy protection programs and data for ELAP (Emergency Assistance for Livestock, Honeybees, and Farm-Raised Fish (ELAP) program).
| On Friday (Oct. 31), NASS announced the following reports will be released during November: • Milk Production – Nov. 10 (previously scheduled for Oct. 22)• Crop Production – Nov. 14 (previously scheduled for Nov. 10)• Cattle on Feed – Nov. 21 (as previously scheduled)• Milk Production – Nov. 21 (as previously scheduled) The World Agricultural Outlook Board will release the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) in conjunction with the Crop Production release on Nov. 14. |
Why the “daily flashes” matter
Under USDA’s Export Sales Reporting Program, exporters must report large sales, and USDA posts a public “daily” announcement at 9:00 a.m. ET. A “large” sale generally means ≥100,000 metric tons of a single commodity to one destination in a day (with lower thresholds for soybean oil) or ≥200,000 tons in aggregate during a week. Those daily flashes complement the weekly export sales report and help level the playing field so that no one subset of traders has an information advantage on major transactions.
During the current shutdown, however, both the weekly report and the daily announcements were halted, leaving merchants, producers, and hedgers “flying blind” at a moment when Chinese demand signals suddenly matter again. That suspension has been widely noted across the ag press and wire services. Resuming the daily flashes whenever warranted would quickly restore critical transparency even if other publications remain delayed.
Born from a shock: the “Great Grain Robbery”
Industry veterans cite the very reason the export sales system exists. In 1972, the Soviet Union quietly amassed huge U.S. grain purchases — about 440 million bushels of wheat (≈12 MMT) in July–August alone — helping to drain reserves and spike food prices. The episode, dubbed the “Great (American) Grain Robbery,” prompted the U.S. to institute formal export sales reporting the following year so policymakers and markets could see big deals in real time — the scandal spurred Congress to act, and in 1973 the Export Sales Reporting Program was created to ensure transparency for large export deals. Today’s debates echo that lesson: when demand pivots fast, timely disclosure is a public good.
The case for flipping the switch back on
- China signal needs verification. With Beijing’s soybean commitments back in headlines, traders argue that daily flashes are the cleanest way to separate rumor from booked business, reduce volatility, and guide basis and freight decisions.
- Partial data beats darkness. Even if some USDA series remain constrained by the shutdown, restarting the daily flashes “when warranted” would immediately shrink information asymmetries until full reporting resumes.
- It’s what the program was built for. The statutory framework and FAS procedures already specify thresholds and timelines; using them amid renewed large-lot activity restores confidence without reinventing processes.
Bottom Line: With China back in the market and Nov. 14’s Crop Production/WASDE now slated for release, the fastest way to restore transparency is to reinstate USDA’s daily export sales flashes whenever threshold sales occur — the very safeguard created after 1972 to prevent markets from being blindsided again.
