Trade Aid and RFS/Reallocation Details May Be Delayed
Facts and figures regarding runup in cattle prices | Hassett: Lost October data clouds economic outlook | Union firemen and oilers union back UP/NS merger
Link: Updates AM: Nov. 11, 2025
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov 7
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov. 7
Updates, PM: Policy/News/Markets, Nov. 11, 2025
—Trade mitigation payments may not be announced this week. Some gov’t source signal she expected around $13 billion in trade mitigation payments may not be unveiled this week despite USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) and others saying the trade aid plan would be unveiled as soon as the U.S government reopens. While the U.S. gov’t reopening is now expected to occur sometime Wednesday afternoon, the trade aid payment may be delayed for several reasons, including: (1) USDA may want to review the USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports on Friday to see how that may impact some analysis done prior to the reports; (2) USDA will be busy getting SNAP/food stamp and WIC payments back up and running; (3) the White House is expected to play a role in the timing of the announcement and/or there may be an “event” that the announcement will be made. For the record: On Oct. 9, 2025, Secretary Brooke Rollins said aid would have to wait until the government reopens, adding: “We’ve got to get the government reopened… once we do, we’ll be able to move out a significant program to help our farmers.” That was widely read as a trade-mitigation-style package. For context, she later moved to partially reopen FSA offices and release roughly $3B from existing CCC authorities even before a full reopening. For the record, on Oct. 30, 2025, according to reports, Hoeven said a program “similar to the $28 billion farmer [aid plan]” from an earlier trade war is “all teed up and good to go,” noting the only thing holding it up was the ongoing government shutdown. —Timeline for 2026 and 2027 RVOs for RFS and reallocations of SRE waivers may take longer than most now think. While biofuel industry officials have been expecting a December announcement from EPA, sources signal it could instead come in the January-February 2026 timeslot, for several reasons, including the record long time the government has been shut down, and further analysis needed for reallocations. EPA will eventually send a final rule to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and after that review is completed, an announcement usually comes rather quickly. —Trump administration or China needs to release signed agreement on China’s commitments to purchase U.S. soybeans. Reason: Some commodity analysts, trader and consultants openly note China has never confirmed the tonnage levels of 12 MMT purchases from November through December 2025, and 25 MMT annually for 2026, 2027 and 2028. Others want proof that China has specified U.S. prices must be competitive and see this as a China escape clause for purchase commitments. Such a clause was in the Phase One agreement signed during the first Trump administration. Of note: It will be interesting to see what USDA’s WASDE report says Friday regarding the Trump/Xi agreement. —Facts and figures regarding cattle prices. A cattle industry contact details: “Cattle prices moving from 210-250 from July through September was 85% due to govt policies (tariffs with Brazil and Mexican border being closed) not industry manipulation of prices. If the Trump administration wants beef prices down, reopen the Mexico border and let Brazilian imports get back to business as usual. Of note: Brazilian imports is 90% trim and grinds and affects the quick service restaurants more than retail. But all ships move up and down the price ladder with the tide. No Brazil imports acts like pulling back 8% of U.S. production. Please feel free to pass that along to those in this administration that might understand this.” And extremely tight cattle supplies due to smallest cattle herd and smallest beef cow herd since 1951 are a factor, too. —Hassett: Lost October data clouds economic outlookWhite House National Economic Director Kevin Hassett warned Tuesday that the record-long government shutdown has erased key October economic data, leaving the outlook “cloudy” as agencies struggle to recover Hassett told CNBC that some federal surveys “were never actually completed,” meaning certain data — including the October CPI and household employment survey — may never be recorded. The Bureau of Labor Statistics and Census Bureau have been unable to collect or process information during the 42-day shutdown, potentially delaying multiple reports once operations resume. Economists expect a backlog of releases when the government reopens but fear gaps in data will complicate policymaking and economic forecasting. Hassett acknowledged a near-term economic hit but predicted growth could rebound to a 3–4% pace by early 2026. The Senate passed legislation late Monday to end the shutdown and fund the government through Jan. 30., with full fiscal year spending for several agencies, including USDA. The House is expected to vote Wednesday afternoon before sending the bill to President Donald Trump for signature. —Union firemen and oilers union back UP/NS mergerDeal guarantees lifetime job security for members under $85B rail merger plan Union Pacific Railroad (UP) and the National Conference of Firemen and Oilers (NCFO) have reached an agreement ensuring job security for hundreds of union members if UP’s proposed $85 billion merger with Norfolk Southern (NS) moves forward. Under the deal, NCFO members employed at the time of the merger would be guaranteed jobs for the duration of their careers, subject to standard employment conditions. NCFO President Michael Pistone said the merger offers “an opportunity to strengthen long-term stability, expand opportunities for our members, and protect quality jobs for the future.” UP CEO Jim Vena called the agreement a reflection of the company’s commitment to “lifetime job security” for all union employees. “This merger will transform our industry, unlocking new sources of growth and opportunities for our country, customers, and employees,” Vena said. The NCFO joins SMART-TD, the largest rail labor union, which endorsed the merger in September after reaching its own deal with UP. Shareholders of both railroads are set to vote Friday on the proposed merger, which still requires approval from the Surface Transportation Board. —Trump spars with Fox’s Laura Ingraham over 50-year mortgage plan and MAGA criticismPresident defends housing proposal, brushes off backlash from conservative base in fiery Fox News exchangePresident Donald Trump’s Monday interview with Fox News’s Laura Ingraham was unusually tense, with the two sparring over his proposed 50-year mortgage plan, China policy, the MAGA movement, and even his Oval Office decor. The sharpest moment came when Trump defended his housing proposal, which has drawn criticism from his own supporters. “It’s not even a big deal,” Trump told Ingraham, saying the plan would simply lower monthly payments. “You go from 40 to 50 years and what it means is you pay something less… It’s not like a big factor.” Fox Business anchor Charles Payne later broke down the math, noting that while a 50-year mortgage could save about $500 a month, borrowers would pay roughly double in total interest over the life of the loan — $700,000 versus $359,000 on a $2,300 monthly payment at 4%. Other moments from the interview included: • On MAGA backlash: “MAGA was my idea,” Trump said, pushing back against criticism from right-wing commentators. “I know what MAGA wants better than anybody else.” • On air traffic controllers: Trump backed $10,000 bonuses for working controllers despite the shutdown, saying he’d “get [the money] from some place.” •On China: In a fiery exchange, Trump countered Ingraham’s jab that “the French are better,” saying, “Really? I’m not so sure. We’ve had a lot of problems with the French.” •On the East Wing remodel: Trump described the East Wing as “a poor, sad sight” before renovations, adding that Melania Trump “took a day” to support the makeover. •On his gold Oval Office decor: Asked if it came from “Home Depot,” Trump quipped, “No, this is not Home Depot stuff.” |
