House Returns to Work with Packed Schedule
New tariff rollback offers limited relief for Brazilian beef and coffee exporters; Trump removes April’s 10% duties, but steep August levies and quota-linked fees continue to restrict Brazilian shipments
Link: Weekend Updates, Nov. 15, 2025: Tariff Rollback Eases Fertilizer Pressures
Ahead of 2026 Planting Season
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov 14
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov. 14
TOP STORIES
— Trump scrambles for price relief as voters signal growing economic frustration
— Trump’s tariff “dividend” checks face hurdles
— Trump’s tariff rollbacks triggered by “critical mass” of new trade deals: USTR Greer
— New tariff rollback offers limited relief for Brazilian beef and coffee exporters
— Fed drift threatens U.S. growth, former governor warns
— U.S. trade envoy warns EU over stalled tariff talks
— Are you an optimist or a pessimist?
WASHINGTON FOCUS
— House returns amid a packed agenda and limited time due to long absence
— Epstein files vote coming in House
— House GOP targets Senate cell phone litigation provision
— Nine appropriations bills still outstanding
— ACA/ObamaCare subsidy fight returns
— Renewed push for a congressional stock trading ban
— NDAA negotiations
— Senate’s spending sprint stalls as shutdown fallout slows 2026 appropriations push
— Grain Standards Act rewrite moves forward after stopgap CR extends deadline
— Republicans scramble for a new health-care plan as ACA subsidy deadline nears
— Reapply or red tape? USDA re-certification push ignites new SNAP fight
ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS
— Economic data delays cloud the week ahead
— Key U.S. economic reports (Nov. 17–21)
— Federal Reserve speakers this week
KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG REPORTS & EVENTS
— Ag focus: China’s second batch of October trade data and key global grains
and palm oil events this week
KEY ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS
— Energy focus: COP30’s final week, slate of global energy conferences and data
The Week Ahead: Nov. 16, 2025
Up Front TOP STORIES— Trump scrambles for price relief as voters signal frustration: White House races to cut tariffs, explore $2,000 checks, and pressure industries as affordability becomes the central political test.— Trump’s tariff “dividend” checks face hurdles: Bessent says $2,000 payments need new legislation and could far exceed projected tariff revenue.— Trump’s tariff rollbacks tied to “critical mass” of trade deals: USTR Greer links new exemptions on coffee, bananas and beef to a network of recent U.S. trade agreements.— New tariff rollback offers limited relief for Brazilian exporters: April’s 10% duties are lifted, but steep August tariffs and quotas keep Brazilian beef and coffee at a big disadvantage.— Fed drift threatens U.S. growth, ex-governor warns: Kevin Warsh argues the central bank’s mistakes and outdated thinking are blunting an AI-driven productivity boom.— U.S. trade envoy warns EU over stalled talks: Greer tells the FT Europe is “running out of time” to cut tariffs and ease regulatory barriers before next week’s negotiations.— Are you an optimist or a pessimist? New WSJ-NORC poll finds many Americans feel financially comfortable today but pessimistic about long-term economic prospects.WASHINGTON FOCUS— House returns to a jammed post-shutdown calendar: Lawmakers face Epstein files, ACA subsidies, stock-trading bans and nine unfinished spending bills with little time before January deadlines.— Epstein files vote: Bipartisan pressure forces a House vote to require DOJ to release unclassified Jeffrey Epstein records, escalating partisan clashes over Trump-related allegations.— House GOP targets Senate cell-phone provision: Republicans move to repeal language letting senators sue over secretly obtained data, saying it was a last-minute, self-dealing add-on.— Nine appropriations bills still outstanding: Congress has funded only part of the government, leaving nine bills and a Jan. 30 deadline to avert another partial shutdown.— ACA/ObamaCare subsidy fight returns: Democrats push to extend enhanced ACA subsidies as Republicans search for an alternative that avoids premium spikes and political blowback.— Renewed push for a congressional stock-trading ban: A broad coalition revives efforts to bar lawmakers and families from trading individual stocks, but legislation still lags.— NDAA negotiations: House and Senate work to bridge differences on a nearly $900-plus billion defense bill that must pass before year-end.— Senate’s spending sprint stalls: Thune’s plan for a big minibus hits time and consent hurdles, leaving nine FY2026 appropriations bills and a tight pre-Jan. 30 runway.— Grain Standards Act rewrite moves forward: Boozman and Thompson push a five-year reauthorization focused on modern grain-grading technology before USDA’s fee authority lapses Jan. 30.— Republicans scramble for a new health-care plan: With ACA subsidies expiring, the GOP races to develop alternatives such as savings-account reforms while Democrats push a straight extension.— Reapply or red tape? New SNAP recertification push: USDA’s fraud-focused re-registration idea sparks Democratic warnings about mass disenrollment and new barriers for working families.ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS— Economic data delays cloud the week ahead: Shutdown-related gaps in jobs and inflation data leave markets leaning on Fed minutes, housing numbers and PMIs for guidance.— Key U.S. economic reports (Nov. 17–21): A packed slate includes trade, housing, jobless claims, PMIs and sentiment surveys, though some releases may slip.— Federal Reserve speakers this week: A full roster of Fed officials will discuss monetary policy, bank regulation, financial stability and the balance sheet across multiple events.KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG REPORTS & EVENTS— Ag focus this week: China’s October trade data, the International Grains Council report and a major palm-oil conference headline a dense calendar of USDA outlooks and global crop updates.KEY ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS— Energy focus: COP30 enters its final stretch as markets track climate negotiations, major energy conferences and routine U.S. inventory data against a backdrop of price-cap decisions.Top Stories: — Trump scrambles for price relief as voters signal growing economic frustrationAdministration races to cut tariffs, float rebate checks, and pressure industries—but structural forces limiting White House control keep prices stubbornly high Key word for both political parties: affordability. President Trump and his advisers are urgently searching for ways to bring down consumer prices after the November elections sent Republicans an unmistakable warning about voter frustration over the cost of living. The White House is weighing a wide range of actions — from $2,000 rebate checks to antitrust probes and new tariff rollbacks — but officials acknowledge their tools are limited and expectations among voters are high (see next item for more on possible $2,000 rebate checks and the hurdles it faces). Following the election, aides pushed Trump to prioritize affordability and are assembling plans on drugs, housing, energy, and food prices. Ideas under discussion include pushing pharmaceutical companies for lower drug costs, speeding approvals for new offshore-drilling projects, and new healthcare proposals. Trump has also ordered fresh options to address high housing costs, including a proposed 50-year mortgage. Yet the administration’s capacity to influence prices remains constrained. Most consumer costs are driven by market forces beyond the White House’s reach, and the Federal Reserve — immune to presidential pressure — still sets interest rates. Direct payments would require Congress, and regulatory or tariff actions can only reach so far. Tariff reductions remain Trump’s most immediate lever. On Friday, the administration slashed duties on beef, coffee, spices, nuts, and other food imports — one of the most notable retreats from the president’s tariff-heavy agenda. The steep rise in coffee prices, driven in part by a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil, became a visible symbol of inflation and helped fuel internal pressure for action. (See related items below.) Despite those steps, Trump has publicly dismissed the political advice to focus heavily on affordability, calling Democratic arguments about price burdens a “con job.” Privately, aides say he is frustrated by criticism that he hasn’t done enough to control costs—and by Republican lawmakers who he feels haven’t promoted his successes. The administration faces a familiar political challenge. Economists note there is “no secret dial” to lower prices quickly. Housing affordability is being squeezed by a structural home shortage that policy can’t fix overnight. Oil prices have eased, but electricity costs are climbing because of demand from data centers and aging grid infrastructure. Many businesses are slow to pass along savings even when tariffs come down. Inflation has cooled from its peaks but remains elevated — 3% in September compared with a year earlier — and consumers feel it in housing, food, and utilities. Politically, the issue is entrenched: Trump effectively hammered Biden over inflation, and now voters are holding him to the same expectations. Republican strategists warn that the public has little patience. Trump has argued that the economy remains strong and that his policies are working, but recent polling shows roughly two-thirds of voters believe he has fallen short on tackling cost-of-living pressures. That voter sentiment has now become central to his administration’s policy sprint heading into 2026. — Trump’s tariff ‘dividend’ checks face hurdlesTreasury secretary says $2,000 payments would require Congress Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that President Donald Trump’s proposal to send $2,000 “dividend” payments funded by tariff revenue cannot move forward without congressional approval. In an interview on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures, Bessent said simply, “We need legislation for that,” signaling the White House cannot unilaterally issue the checks. Trump has promoted the idea amid voter frustration over high living costs, arguing that record tariff revenue allows the government to return money to Americans — excluding “the rich,” he said aboard Air Force One on Friday. But early estimates highlight the plan’s massive price tag: the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget pegs the cost near $600 billion, roughly double expected tariff revenue for 2025. Despite the legislative obstacle, Bessent said households should see relief early next year from tax cuts enacted in Trump’s economic package. He predicted inflation will begin to ease and “real income” will accelerate in the first half of 2026. Of note: When asked if Trump would still send out tariff dividend checks if the Supreme Court rolls back his tariffs, Trump said, “Then I’d have to do something else.” — Trump’s tariff rollbacks triggered by ‘critical mass’ of new trade deals, USTR Greer saysUSTR Jamieson Greer links coffee, banana, beef tariff exemptions to a sweeping set of bilateral agreements that he says have reshaped U.S. leverage in global trade. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Friday that the administration’s newly announced tariff exemptions on goods such as coffee, bananas, cocoa and beef became possible only after President Trump secured a “critical mass” of bilateral trade agreements — a threshold he argues has fundamentally altered America’s global trade posture. Speaking to reporters outside the White House, Greer pointed to a rapid succession of deals with Europe, Asia, and, most recently, Latin America and Switzerland. The trade pacts with the European Union and United Kingdom over the summer, investment agreements with Japan and South Korea, and a series of new Western Hemisphere frameworks with Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador and Guatemala all contributed to what he described as a turning point. “With all these framework agreements and trade deals, we’ve started to reshape the global trade system in a way that’s better for America,” he said. That milestone, Greer continued, is why President Trump has begun lifting tariffs on products that the U.S. does not produce domestically. The president previewed the move in a Sept. 5 executive order granting the USTR and Commerce Dept. authority to adjust tariffs as new trade frameworks were implemented. But the exemptions have gained momentum only in recent weeks as agreements have advanced. Under the Latin American deals announced Nov. 13, countries exporting goods the U.S. does not grow — such as coffee and bananas — will see tariffs eliminated. Though the wording of each commitment differs among the four countries, Greer characterized the intent as consistent: removing duties on non-competitive imported products as part of broader trade concessions. “This is primarily food and agriculture products that we simply don’t make in the United States,” he said. The expanding network of deals, he added, means “now is the right time” to move forward on tariff relief. (See next item for more on the impact of the tariff rollbacks as they pertain to Brazil.) In a separate interview on CNBC, Greer described the tariffs on those goods as “leverage” that helped secure commitments from trading partners. Now that the negotiations have borne fruit, he said, the administration views rolling back those duties as both logical and mutually beneficial. Quote of note: “Are there micro areas, like bananas or coffee or cocoa or things like that where we don’t need a tariff? I think that’s right,” Greer said. “The president appropriately used them as leverage to get these deals… So the timing is right.” — New tariff rollback offers limited relief for Brazilian beef and coffee exportersTrump removes April’s 10% duties, but steep August levies and quota-linked fees continue to restrict Brazilian shipments The Trump administration has partially unwound its tariff regime on Brazilian agricultural goods, lifting the 10% duties first imposed in April on imports of beef, coffee and tropical fruits. But the far higher tariffs implemented in August — around 40% — as well as steep quota-based surcharges, remain firmly in place, leaving Brazilian shippers only marginally better off and keeping U.S. import costs elevated. Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said Saturday that Brazilian exported goods to the U.S. including coffee, beef and tropical fruits would still be tariffed 40%, despite President Donald Trump’s decision to remove some import taxes. In July, Trump imposed a further 40% tariff, citing — among other reasons — the trial of his ally, former President Jair Bolsonaro, which he called a “witch hunt.” Proceedings went ahead regardless and in September Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison for attempting a coup. Alckmin said some products, such as orange juice, would now have a zero tariff as they were not targeted by the additional 40%. But that extra tariff remains in place on products including coffee, beef and tropical fruits, such as mangos and pineapples. “Everyone got 10% less, but in Brazil’s case, which had 50%, we ended up with 40%, which is very high,” Alckmin told journalists in the capital Brasilia. Alckmin said that Friday’s decision means that 26% of Brazilian goods are now entering the U.S. without additional tariffs. That’s up from 23%. The changes were finalized in a Nov. 14 executive order, which specifies that the tariff relief applies retroactively to “goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption” after 12:01 a.m. ET on Nov. 13. The retroactive application is intended to clear goods already en route or stuck in warehouses at the higher April tariff rates. Diplomacy intensifies as Brazil presses for fuller relief. Brazil, a major supplier of beef, coffee and fruit to the U.S. market, has spent weeks urging Washington to reconsider the multi-tier tariff structure. Brazilian Foreign Affairs Minister Mauro Vieira raised the issue repeatedly in recent discussions with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, highlighting the strain on exporters and the destabilizing effects on bilateral agricultural trade. But while the rollback addresses the lowest tier of tariffs, the core of the burden remains. August tariffs still bite: up to 76% on out-of-quota beef. Beginning in early August, U.S. authorities imposed a complex combination of duties on Brazilian beef imports, pushing effective rates as high as 76% and slashing shipments by nearly half, according to industry data cited by importers. Under that structure:• In-quota Brazilian beef faced a 50% tariff• Out-of-quota beef faced a 76.4% tariff• Both categories are now reduced by 10 percentage points, but remain historically high By contrast, Australia now supplies most U.S. imported beef at a far lower 10% tariff rate, giving it a substantial competitive edge as American beef demand outstrips domestic supplies. U.S. beef import forecasts edge higher despite tariff volatility. USDA projects that total U.S. beef imports will reach 2.433 million tonnes in 2025, a 16% increase over 2024 as tightening U.S. cattle supplies require more foreign product. Imports are expected to contract slightly to 2.245 million tonnes in 2026, though trade officials caution that tariff uncertainty could shift volumes sharply. Importers and exporters alike say margins remain thin and unpredictable. Some U.S. buyers have turned to alternative suppliers to avoid the volatility, while Brazilian producers face weak profitability and shifting logistics patterns. Of note: When the U.S. under Donald Trump issued the executive order (EO) imposing a 40% country-specific tariff on many Brazilian-origin goods in early August, the EO’s Annex I exempted several key Brazilian exports, including orange juice, from the 40% surcharge. A partial reset, but not a resolution. The Nov. 14 order offers targeted relief but stops well short of reopening the U.S. market to pre-tariff levels. For Brazil, the rollback represents progress — but only incremental. For U.S. policy, it reflects the administration’s attempt to balance food-price pressure at home with a trade strategy still premised on “reciprocal” tariff structures. With bilateral talks ongoing and both countries watching inflation indicators closely, industry groups expect further negotiations, though not necessarily swift changes. ProductBaseline Tariff (Pre-April)April Tariff (Lifted Nov. 14)August Tariff (Still in Effect)Post–Nov. 14 TariffNotesBrazilian Beef (In-Quota)~0–10%+10%50%≈40%Remains the most affectedBrazilian Beef (Out-of-Quota)~10%+10%76.4%≈66%Volumes cut by ~half since AugustCoffee~0–5%+10%~40%~30%Shipments remain depressedTropical Fruits0–10%+10%~40%~30%Still subject to August surchargeOrange Juice (Finished OJ & Concentrate)0–5%+10%0% (EXEMPT)0–5% MFN onlyFully exempt from Aug tariffs; April removedOrange-Oil / Citrus By-Products0–5%+10%~40%~30%Still tariffed; not included in OJ waiverJuice bases & preparationsVaries+10%~40%~30%Not exempted Perspective: Impact on Brazilian beef to U.S. • Short-term: Modest recovery possible, but still blocked by 30–60% equivalent tariffs. Expect shipments to remain well below pre-August levels.• 2025 outlook: Imports into the U.S. may rise slightly from current depressed volumes but will not regain the nearly 50% that was lost under the 76% duty regime.• 2026 outlook: Slight growth possible if further tariff negotiations progress; otherwise, expect Brazil to remain a secondary supplier behind Australia, New Zealand, and Mexico. — Fed drift threatens U.S. growth, former governor warnsKevin Warsh argues in the Wall Street Journal that the central bank’s missteps are holding back wages, innovation and America’s competitive edge In a pointed Wall Street Journal commentary (link) published Nov. 16, 2025, former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh argues that the U.S. economy is primed for exceptional growth — if only the Federal Reserve’s leadership would stop “defending its mistakes” and start correcting them. Warsh contends that the combination of rapid technological advancement, a surge of private-sector investment, and the Trump administration’s deregulatory and pro-growth tax agenda has positioned the U.S. to outperform every major economy. Yet he warns that the Fed’s sluggish decision-making and adherence to outdated assumptions now risk undermining the very productivity boom that could lift American living standards. AI-fueled productivity and Trump-era policy tailwinds. Warsh attributes much of the nation’s economic momentum to what he calls a “new age of American innovation,” characterized by powerful AI systems, advanced chip design, and a uniquely dynamic U.S. tech ecosystem. These innovations, he writes, are redefining invention itself — enabling faster, more efficient creative cycles. He credits the Trump administration’s sweeping deregulation efforts and its July tax cut bill for accelerating more than $5.4 trillion in private capital investment this year, with equipment spending alone rising at an 8% annual rate. These policy gains, he argues, are helping revive U.S. manufacturing and fueling growth that rivals historical expansions. But he stresses that America’s real advantage is not just hyperscale tech giants — it is the ingenuity of American workers across factories, rigs, cubicles, and garages. Where the Fed goes wrong. Warsh argues that the economy should be producing even stronger real wage gains—but the Fed’s leadership is holding the country back. He identifies four core failures: 1. Clinging to a stagflation forecastWarsh calls the Fed’s medium-term outlook “a forecast of failure,” arguing that fears of slow growth and stubborn inflation ignore the coming productivity boom from AI. A 1-percentage-point increase in annual productivity, he notes, would double living standards within a generation. 2. Misdiagnosing inflationWarsh blasts the Powell-era Fed for “unwise choices” that fueled the post-pandemic inflation surge and for clinging to the view that growth and wages cause inflation. Inflation, he argues, stems from government overspending and money creation, not an overheated job market. He calls for a major balance-sheet unwind—redirecting liquidity from Wall Street giants toward households and smaller firms through lower interest rates. 3. Regulatory failures hurt small banksWarsh faults the Fed for supervisory lapses that allowed the 2022–23 deposit runs and for regulatory frameworks that disadvantage small and medium-sized lenders. These policies, he says, are choking off credit to the “real economy.” 4. Basel rules are not America’s endgameWarsh criticizes more than a decade of Fed efforts to harmonize bank rules with global standards negotiated in Basel. He argues that the U.S. should design its own regulatory regime to make America the preferred global banking hub—unlocking more domestic lending. A call for fundamental reform. Warsh concludes that the Fed’s reach has “extended far beyond its grasp,” and that only a sweeping overhaul of monetary and regulatory policy will allow the U.S. to fully capitalize on AI-driven productivity gains. If the Fed changes course, he writes, the U.S. could enter a “new golden age” marked by:• faster economic growth• stronger wage gains• lower inflation• broader prosperity for American workers Without such reforms, he warns, the central bank will remain a drag on the nation’s potential. — U.S. trade envoy warns EU over stalled tariff talksUSTR Greer says Brussels is “running out of time” as Washington pushes for faster concessions ahead of next week’s negotiations U.S. trade negotiator Jamieson Greer sharply criticized the European Union for dragging its feet on tariff reductions and regulatory alignment, warning that the issue is becoming a renewed “flashpoint” between Washington and Brussels, according to Financial Times reporting. Greer, a senior member of President Trump’s trade team, said the EU has been “slow walking” commitments on lowering duties and simplifying rules that U.S. officials say are necessary to move broader talks forward. With high-level negotiations set to resume next week, he cautioned that continued delays could jeopardize progress. Quote of note: “Europe needs to decide whether it actually wants a modern trading relationship,” Greer told the FT, adding that U.S. agricultural and industrial exporters face “persistent disadvantage” under Brussels’ current tariff regime. He also pointed to what he described as “opaque” EU regulatory practices that complicate market access for U.S. goods. U.S. officials are particularly focused on:• Tariff cuts on industrial and agricultural products that USTR argues remain higher than comparable U.S. rates.• Regulatory alignment, including product standards and conformity assessment rules, where the U.S. says EU procedures are “onerous and outdated.”• Digital trade and services barriers, which the U.S. contends harm competitive cross-border industries. Greer’s comments come amid broader efforts by the Trump administration to unlock foreign markets as it also pares back certain reciprocal tariffs at home. The administration views progress with the EU as essential to stabilizing supply chains and easing cost pressures that have fueled domestic political tensions. Brussels has countered that many of the requested changes require lengthy internal consultations and agreement among 27 member states—something U.S. officials say can no longer serve as an excuse. Negotiators on both sides expect a contentious round ahead, with Washington warning that absent movement on tariffs and regulatory processes, it is prepared to “reassess” the direction of the talks. — Are you an optimist or a pessimist? More than six out of 10 Americans say they feel financially comfortable. Most also have little confidence that the U.S. economy can provide them or their children with a prosperous future A recent WSJ-NORC poll found many Americans are comfortable pessimists: financially comfortable themselves but concerned about the economy’s future. See where you fit in. Link |
| WASHINGTON FOCUS |
— The House returns amid a packed agenda and limited time due to their long absence from Washington.
— House lawmakers are racing into a compressed legislative calendar after a month-long shutdown fight left the chamber idle and now facing a stack of must-pass deadlines. With a divided Congress and a razor-thin GOP majority, the next several weeks will determine whether lawmakers can avoid another shutdown in January, extend expiring health care subsidies, and finalize the annual defense policy bill.
Here’s what’s ahead in the House:
— Epstein files vote. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) plans a vote on the Epstein Files Transparency Act, which requires the Department of Justice to release unclassified records related to Jeffrey Epstein. The vote was forced by a bipartisan discharge petition that reached 218 signatures, led by Reps. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.). Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) predicted “100 or more” House Republicans could vote in favor of releasing files and documents related to the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein this week. “I think we could have a deluge of Republicans,” Massie said Sunday on ABC’s This Week when asked by Jonathan Karl about GOP support for the vote. “There could be 100 or more.”
Democrats escalated tensions after releasing emails alleging Epstein claimed President Trump knew about his relationships with underage girls. The White House dismissed the emails as a political distraction. House Republicans countered by releasing 20,000 pages of documents from Epstein’s estate, with Johnson arguing the bill is unnecessary given ongoing committee investigations.
— House GOP targets Senate cell phone litigation provision. Republicans are moving quickly to repeal a controversial provision in the new funding law allowing senators to sue the government for $500,000 if their data was secretly obtained — language benefiting eight senators whose phone records were seized during former special counsel Jack Smith’s Jan. 6 probe.
Johnson said he was “very angry” the provision was inserted at the last moment and is fast-tracking repeal legislation next week under suspension of the rules, expecting broad bipartisan support.
— Nine appropriations bills still outstanding. Congress has passed only three full-year spending bills, funding military construction, veterans’ affairs, USDA, and the legislative branch. Nine remain, covering Transportation, Commerce, Interior, and others.
A continuing resolution funds the rest of the government through Jan. 30, leaving lawmakers just weeks to pass the remaining bills—or another CR—to avoid a partial shutdown. GOP Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) said he’d prefer to finish the bills before year’s end rather than scramble for votes in late January.
— ACA/ObamaCare subsidy fight returns. ACA premium subsidies expire at the end of the year, setting up another high-stakes fight. Democrats launched a discharge petition to force a vote on a three-year extension, hoping moderate Republicans will join them.
Moderates have floated a narrower two-year extension with income caps for high earners. Johnson has said he cannot commit to a vote, leaving the issue one of the biggest obstacles to avoiding a January shutdown. (See item below for more on this topic.)
— Renewed push for a congressional stock trading ban. Momentum is building behind bipartisan legislation to ban lawmakers and their families from owning or trading individual stocks. A House Administration Committee hearing on Nov. 19 will review reforms to strengthen the STOCK Act.
A wide ideological coalition backs the bill, though it has not yet advanced out of committee.
— NDAA negotiations. With the shutdown over, negotiators are working to reconcile the House and Senate versions of the National Defense Authorization Act, which must pass this year. The Senate bill funds the military at $924.7 billion for FY2026, while the House version comes in lower at nearly $893 billion. Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) said lawmakers hope to finalize the bill by Thanksgiving and pass it in December.
— Senate’s spending sprint stalls as shutdown fallout slows 2026 appropriations push
Thune’s minibus ambition meets unanimous consent reality, leaving Congress with nine bills and little time
A Senate plan to advance a large fiscal 2026 appropriations package this week is increasingly unlikely, as the chamber confronts political headwinds, time constraints, and the lingering fallout from the recently ended 43-day partial government shutdown.
Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) had hoped to bring the Defense bill to the floor and, with unanimous consent, attach as many as four additional measures — Labor-HHS-Education, Commerce-Justice-Science, Interior-Environment, and Transportation-HUD — to form a massive “minibus.” While technically still possible, aides say the strategy is running into familiar obstacles: the difficulty of securing unanimous consent and the politically sensitive nature of the bills involved.
Complicating matters further, the Senate will forgo a full Monday workday and won’t convene until late Tuesday. With lawmakers eyeing the Thanksgiving recess, this week’s schedule may close by Thursday night, creating a razor-thin window.
Three full-year bills — Agriculture, Legislative Branch, and Military Construction-VA — were included in the short-term funding measure that reopened the government, totaling about $187 billion. That leaves nine appropriations bills for Congress to complete before Jan. 30, when funding again expires for most agencies.
On the House side, Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said the chamber’s “cardinals” — subcommittee leaders — will meet this week to reassess progress. Cole said he’ll “set them loose” to begin negotiations with Senate counterparts in search of common ground. Cole is also floating a smaller three-bill package — Energy-Water, Interior-Environment, and Transportation-HUD — as a more realistic next step. That plan would sidestep the politically fraught Defense and Labor-HHS-Education bills and keep the process moving without needing an overarching topline spending deal. House Transportation-HUD Chair Steve Womack (R-Ark.) said he views those same three bills as the natural “next batch,” noting recent conversations with Senate THUD Chair Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.). Interior-Environment Chair Mike Simpson (R-Idaho) said informal bipartisan staff-level talks are already underway.
So far, the House has advanced all 12 bills out of committee and passed three — Defense, Energy-Water, and Military Construction-VA — on the floor. The Senate Appropriations Committee has cleared eight.
The Senate Appropriations Committee still has not marked up several bills: Energy-Water, Financial Services, Homeland Security, and State-Foreign Operations. It remains unclear whether bipartisan agreements can be reached. If not, Senate Republicans may post partisan drafts to establish a negotiating baseline.
House action on additional full-year bills is also doubtful given the tight GOP majority and a crowded agenda after the lengthy shutdown.
Bottom Line: Womack summed up the broader challenge: “It’s not the failure on the part of the appropriators. It’s the lack of the resolve by the Congress writ large to put a priority on this work — and, you know, thin majorities.” With just ten weeks left before another potential shutdown, the clock is ticking — and confidence in a swift appropriations sprint is fading fast.
— Grain Standards Act rewrite moves forward after stopgap CR extends deadline
Boozman and Thompson push for technology-driven overhaul before Jan. 30 expiration
Top House and Senate Ag Committee leaders are preparing to move grain-inspection legislation across the finish line after the stopgap funding law bought Congress an additional three months to act. USDA’s fee-collection authority for supervising grain inspections and weighing lapsed on Sept. 30, halting some oversight activities until the stopgap restored temporary authority.
Of note: House Ag Chairman GT Thompson (R-Pa.) and Senate Ag Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark.) both say their goal is to enact a full five-year reauthorization before the Jan. 30 deadline — with a major emphasis on upgrading grain-grading technology for the modern era.
Thompson said it’s his “goal” to finalize a long-term, five-year extension, stressing the need to incorporate real-time tools that enhance efficiency, transparency, and accuracy. “Technology is extremely important… recognizing this is 2025 and there’s some great efficiencies and accountability and transparency that can occur more in real time if we use technology,” he said.
Boozman echoed that message, highlighting the Senate Ag panel’s unanimous 23-0 approval of its amended version of the bill (HR 4550) earlier this month. “The unanimous support in the committee is encouraging to quickly pass the bill in the Senate,” he said.
Much of the century-old grain standards law — including mandatory inspection and weighing of exported grain — is permanently authorized. But USDA’s authority to collect fees from grain exporters requires congressional renewal, making the upcoming deadline critical for exporters, elevators, processors, and inspectors.
House/Senate differences still to be resolved. The House passed HR 4550 by voice vote in September, authorizing $23 million annually from FY 2026–2030 for standardization, compliance, and monitoring of foreign grain inspection systems. The Senate amended the bill to remove the authorization level and restructure the 15-member advisory committee. Under the Senate changes, USDA would be required to solicit nominations before member terms expire and allow current members to continue serving until replacements are appointed.
Thompson declined to endorse or reject the Senate’s revisions, saying only that House and Senate leaders “have been working together all along.” Boozman downplayed the differences in October, calling them “very technical changes” designed to increase transparency and meet industry requests.
Modernizing grain grading remains central. Both chambers remain aligned on the bill’s core goal: a modernization push for U.S. grain grading. The legislation directs the USDA secretary to prioritize improved technology that ensures more accurate, consistent grain grading across the system.
Industry groups say the update is overdue. “Modernization, efficiency and stability are nonnegotiables for the participants across the supply chain — from producers, elevators and processors to exporters,” said Mike Seyfert, president and CEO of the National Grain and Feed Association. “This is a pivotal moment for the grain value chain.”
Bottom Line: With broad bipartisan support and a clear deadline, congressional leaders are now racing to finalize a unified bill before the clock runs out on Jan. 30, 2026.
— Republicans scramble for a new health-care plan as ACA subsidy deadline nears
With enhanced Affordable Care Act /ObamaCare subsidies set to expire in weeks, the GOP races to offer an alternative to Democrats’ straightforward but expensive extension
Republicans are once again attempting to craft a replacement for the Affordable Care Act/ObamaCare, as President Donald Trump pushes for a “far better and far less expensive” alternative and lawmakers race toward a mid-December deadline for dueling health-care votes. For weeks during the record 43-day government shutdown, the White House refused to negotiate on the ACA subsidy issue at the center of Democrats’ demands. Now, with premium hikes hitting the individual market and enhanced ACA subsidies set to lapse next month, Congress is engaged in a compressed, high-stakes sprint to determine whether millions will retain affordable coverage.
Democrats: Extend the subsidies — the simplest option. Democrats argue the clearest path is simply to renew the pandemic-era ACA subsidies, which a large majority of Americans support. CBO estimates show a permanent extension would insure nearly 4 million more people over the next decade, though at a cost of $350 billion. Even in red states, analysts warn that lapsing subsidies would trigger widespread coverage losses and steep premium spikes.
Democrats extracted a floor vote on extending the subsidies as part of the shutdown deal, and some are already attacking the administration for premium increases in early campaign ads.
Republican resistance — and political risk. Despite warnings from GOP strategists and Trump’s own pollster that ending the subsidies would be politically damaging, conservatives remain divided. Some Republicans call the subsidies costly, fraud-prone, and distortionary, arguing they artificially inflate insurers’ profits. Others — wary of repeating the failed ObamaCare repeal efforts of Trump’s first term — fear another intraparty fight that could alienate swing voters.
Trump’s preferred alternative: Redirect the money to savings accounts. Trump is pushing a plan to divert ACA subsidy funds away from insurers and into consumers’ health-related savings accounts, arguing Americans should “buy their own health care” without relying on the ACA marketplaces. Conservative groups like the Paragon Health Institute have championed the idea, while many health economists warn it would trigger an ACA “death spiral” by encouraging healthier people to exit the insurance pool entirely.
The Senate Finance Committee will review healthcare costs Wednesday. Meanwhile, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) is preparing a late-November hearing on options, including his own plan to move subsidies into tax-free Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs). Critics note FSAs can’t be used to pay monthly premiums — leaving many enrollees unable to stay insured.
Other GOP ideas: Rebate checks and a reinsurance fund. The Trump administration has also explored sending rebate checks to those who buy ACA marketplace coverage but earn too much to qualify for subsidies. The idea, developed within CMS, remains under discussion but has not been approved.
Meanwhile, some Republican lawmakers are reviewing proposals like broadening age-rating bands to lower premiums for young adults and creating a $10-billion-per-year federal reinsurance fund to subsidize coverage for sicker enrollees — a potential bipartisan bridge.
Democrats see a potential bipartisan path — but only if Republicans prioritize stability. Democratic negotiators say they’re cautiously optimistic about extending the subsidies, especially with some GOP lawmakers signaling openness to limited compromises such as income caps or stronger anti-fraud measures.
In the House, a handful of Republicans have already backed proposals for one- or two-year extensions.
Still, major ideological divides remain — including abortion-related provisions tied to the Hyde Amendment that have derailed past bipartisan efforts to modify the ACA.
Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) said she’d prefer bigger changes to how the subsidies are distributed. “I like the president’s idea of giving the tax credits directly to the consumers,” Malliotakis said. “I don’t like that it’s going to subsidize wealthy insurance corporations.”
A compressed timeline with major consequences. With premium increases already hitting consumers and states setting 2025 rates, lawmakers face only weeks to decide how to prevent millions from losing affordable coverage.
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) summarized the stakes bluntly: If Republicans block a subsidy extension, “the American people will know who is responsible for their premiums shooting through the roof.”
| Oz Says ACA Subsidy Extension Under Discussion as Fraud Crackdown Takes Center StageCMS administrator cites “paralyzing” fraud concerns as Congress heads toward December showdown on Affordable Care Act premiums Dr. Mehmet Oz, the administrator for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), said Sunday that the Trump administration is actively discussing whether to extend Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium subsidies — but only if paired with aggressive action to curb fraud in the marketplace. Oz told CNN’s State of the Union that extending subsidies is on the table “if we deal with the fraud, waste and abuse that, right now, is paralyzing the system.” According to KFF, much of the fraud referenced involves agents, brokers, web brokers and third-party entities enrolling individuals in ACA plans without proper authorization or manipulating consumer data. The temporary enhanced ACA subsidies — initially created during the pandemic and later extended by the Inflation Reduction Act — expire at the end of this year. Their fate became a central point of contention during the 43-day government shutdown: Republicans insisted the government must reopen first before negotiating, while most Democrats demanded an extension be included in any funding bill. The continuing resolution signed by President Trump last week did not include subsidy renewal. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has pledged a December vote on an extension, while House Democrats have launched a discharge petition to force consideration of a three-year renewal. CMS projects that average 2026 health insurance premiums will rise to about $50 per month — $13 more than this year — even before factoring in the potential expiration of subsidies. President Trump, meanwhile, has floated an alternative: replacing subsidies paid to insurers with direct payments to Americans. The subsidy program has been a major driver of affordability — four out of five HealthCare.gov customers were able to obtain plans for $10 or less per month for 2024. “The big question is this: How do we insure people, but make it sustainable?” Oz said, framing the administration’s position heading into what is likely to be a high-stakes December debate. |
Bottom Line: The next month will determine whether Congress reaches a compromise — or plunges the ACA marketplaces back into familiar turbulence.
— Reapply or red tape? USDA re-certification push ignites new SNAP fight
Democrats warn reapplication plan risks mass disenrollment as Trump administration cites fraud, program integrity, and outdated eligibility systems
Partisan tensions over federal food aid flared again after USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) beneficiaries will soon be required to reapply for benefits in response to what the department describes as rising fraud and decades-old administrative vulnerabilities.
Rollins did not clarify whether USDA plans to shorten recertification periods, require new verification documents, or mandate more in-person interviews. But the secretary stressed that USDA must “ensure taxpayer funds are protected and that benefits go to those who truly qualify.”
Democrats push back: “This is not about fraud — it’s about barriers.” Democrats immediately blasted the announcement, warning that even modest changes to re-registration rules could disenroll eligible households at a time when food insecurity remains elevated. Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) called the idea “completely unacceptable,” arguing that millions could be knocked off the rolls not because they are ineligible, but because of paperwork hurdles. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) added that forcing beneficiaries to reapply would “make it harder for working people to get needed benefits,” particularly those with irregular schedules or limited internet access.
Why Democrats oppose re-registration requirements
• Procedural disenrollment risk. Democrats argue most SNAP drop-offs happen for paperwork-related reasons, not ineligibility. Additional re-registration steps, they say, will create “Medicaid-style” churn and leave eligible families without food assistance for months.
• Administrative strain on states. Caseworkers in many states are already overwhelmed. More frequent or more complex recertification cycles could slow down processing, cause delays, and increase error rates.
• Hardship for workers and families. Low-income workers with multiple jobs often can’t take time off for interviews or compile documents quickly. Democrats warn re-registration will punish people who are doing everything right but lack bandwidth to navigate new requirements.
• Limited evidence of widespread fraud. Democrats note that SNAP’s error rate is primarily administrative, not intentional misuse. They argue USDA has not provided evidence that matches the scale of the proposed response.
• Fear of political motives. After years of Republican proposals to tighten work rules and narrow eligibility, Democrats believe re-registration is part of a broader push to shrink participation quietly through procedural barriers rather than legislative cuts.
Why the Trump administration wants re-registration requirements. While USDA has not yet released formal guidance, administration officials and Republican allies point to several motivations:
• Heightened fraud concerns. The administration cites internal audits and state-level investigations showing suspicious patterns in identity verification, duplicate households, and benefits transferred across state lines. They argue re-registration is necessary to confirm eligibility more rigorously and prevent waste.
• Outdated systems and infrequent eligibility checks. Officials say some states have SNAP certification periods that stretch a year or more, which they argue allows income changes, job changes, or household shifts to go unreported. Re-registration, in their view, ensures that benefits reflect current circumstances, not outdated data.
• Pressure from GOP governors. Several Republican governors have lobbied USDA to tighten reviews, claiming that pandemic-era flexibilities created opportunities for abuse. The administration says re-registration will standardize integrity measures across states and respond to these demands.
• Budget and deficit politics. With tariff revenues being actively promoted for various policy priorities — including proposed “dividend” payments — the Trump administration has emphasized reducing improper payments across federal programs. Stricter SNAP verification is framed as part of a broader effort to cut costs without legislative fights.
• Appealing to a base demanding welfare oversight. Politically, re-registration aligns with longstanding conservative priorities: emphasizing work, reducing dependency, and asserting stronger federal oversight of means-tested programs. The move signals to Republican voters that the administration is tightening welfare rules after pandemic-era expansions.
What comes next. USDA has not said whether the coming changes will involve shorter certification periods, new identity checks, in-person interviews, or a full overhaul of state eligibility systems. Democrats are preparing oversight letters, pushing for hearings, and exploring legislative avenues to block any measure they believe will reduce access to food assistance. Republicans counter that they are simply strengthening program integrity and ensuring benefits reach the “truly eligible.”
Upshot: Without specific guidance from USDA, the political fight over SNAP — already inflamed by the recent shutdown and high grocery prices — is likely to intensify in the weeks ahead.
| ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS |
— Economic data delays cloud the week ahead
Key indicators still missing as markets brace for Fed minutes and heavyweight earnings
The federal government has reopened, but major holes remain in the economic picture. The Bureau of Labor Statistics says it will release the long-delayed September jobs report this Thursday. Yet the White House warned that two key indicators — the October employment report and the October consumer price index — may never be published, leaving policymakers and markets without critical visibility on inflation and labor conditions.
Even without those reports, it will be a busy week for economic signals. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will publish minutes from its late-October FOMC meeting, offering new insight into how officials viewed inflation risks and the shutdown’s data blackout. Housing-starts data from the Census Bureau arrives Thursday, followed Friday by S&P Global’s Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which will provide real-time readings on economic momentum.
Corporate earnings will command equal attention. Nvidia, still considered a bellwether for the global AI boom and once labeled “the most important stock on earth” by Goldman Sachs, reports Wednesday. Its results and guidance will be scrutinized for signs of whether AI-driven investment remains resilient despite macro uncertainty.
Retail giants also take center stage as the holiday season approaches. Home Depot reports Tuesday, followed by Lowe’s and Target on Wednesday. Walmart — the industry’s dominant player — releases results Thursday amid news that Doug McMillon, its CEO since 2014, is stepping down. Investors will be watching for what the retailer says about consumer strength, pricing, and inventory trends heading into year-end.
— Key U.S. economic reports (Nov. 17-21)
Note: Several government data releases remain uncertain or delayed due to the previous U.S. gov’t shutdown.
Mon., Nov. 17
• Empire State Manufacturing
Tue. Nov. 18
• Import & Export Prices
• Industrial Production
• Housing Market Index
Wed., Nov. 19
• Housing Starts
• Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
• FOMC Minutes
Thurs. Nov. 20
• Jobless Claims
• Employment
• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
• Existing Home Sales
• Leading Indicators
• KC Fed Manufacturing
Fri., Nov. 21
• PMI Composite Flash
• Consumer Sentiment
— Federal Reserve speakers this week include:
Monday: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson discusses monetary policy in Kansas City, Mo., at 9:30 a.m. Fed Gov. Chris Waller discusses the economic outlook in London at 3:35 p.m.
Tuesday: Fed Gov. Michael Barr discusses bank supervision at 10:30 a.m. in Washington, D.C.
Wednesday: Fed Gov. Stephen Miran discusses bank regulation and the Fed’s balance sheet with the Bank Policy Institute at 10 a.m.
Thursday: Fed Gov. Lisa Cook discusses financial stability at 11 a.m. in Washington, D.C. The Fed’s Miran will do a fireside chat with the American Investment Council at 6:15 p.m.
Friday: The Fed’s Jefferson discusses financial stability in Cleveland at 8:45 a.m.
| — KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG REPORTS & EVENTS |
— Ag focus: China’s second batch of trade data for October, including grains, sugar and cotton imports, will be released on Tuesday. Focus during the week will also be on the International Grains Council’s monthly report and a global palm oil conference in Kuala Lumpur.
NOTE: U.S. releases are listed as normal, though data may be delayed or postponed due to the prior gov’t shutdown (for example, USDA’s NASS took down its previous November calendar of reports).
Mon., Nov. 17
• Export Inspections
• Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook
• Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook
• Crop Progress
Tue., Nov. 18
• EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• China’s 2nd batch of October trade data, including grains, sugar, cotton, palm oil,
pork & beef imports
• MPOB International Palm Oil Congress, Kuala Lumpur, day 1
• Food Dollar Series
• Vegetables and Pulses Data
• Fruit & Tree Nut Data
• Rural America at a Glance: 2025 Edition
Wed., Nov. 19
• MPOB International Palm Oil Congress, Kuala Lumpur, day 2
Thurs., Nov. 20
• IGC grains market report
• China’s 3rd batch of Oct. trade data, including country breakdowns
• MPOB International Palm Oil Congress, Kuala Lumpur, day 3
• Malaysia’s Nov. 1-20 palm oil exports
• Sugar: World Markets and Trade
• Agricultural Exchange Rate Data Set
• Livestock Slaughter
• Slaughter Weekly
Fri., Nov. 21
• FranceAgriMer weekly crop conditions report
• CFTC Commitments of Traders
• Export Sales
• Cotton Ginnings
• Cattle on Feed
• Chickens & Eggs
• Milk Production
• Peanut Prices
• Holiday: Argentina
| — KEY ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS |
— Energy focus: The COP30 climate change conference in Brazil is scheduled to conclude Nov. 21 amid negotiations on how to bring down projected temperature increases and boost financing, though the talks may run over.
Energy-focused conferences during the week include the Aurora Energy Transition Summit in London, the Evolen conference in Paris, and a BloombergNEF Forum in Geneva.
Britain’s energy regulator, Ofgem, is due to announce its latest energy price cap level by Nov. 25
NOTE: U.S. releases are listed as normal, though data may be delayed or postponed due to the prior gov’t shutdown.
Mon., Nov. 17
• UN COP30 conference continues; runs through Nov. 21
• WTI options for December expire
• Holiday: Mexico
Tue., Nov. 18
• API US inventory report
Wed. Nov. 19
• EIA Petroleum Status Report
• Weekly Ethanol Production
• WTI CSOs for December expire
• Bloomberg New Economy Forum, Singapore; runs through Friday
• Aurora Energy Transition Summit, London
• Evolen energy conference, Paris; runs through Thursday
Thurs., Nov. 20
• EIA Natural Gas Report
• Singapore onshore oil product stockpile weekly data
• BloombergNEF Forum, Geneva
• WTI futures for December expire
• Holiday: Brazil
Fri., Nov. 14
• ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil
