Report: Mounting China Tensions Deepen U.S. Farm Crisis as Bankruptcies, Stress and Losses Surge

Report: Mounting China Tensions Deepen U.S. Farm Crisis as Bankruptcies, Stress and Losses Surge

Trump admin. still working on trade mitigation package | Trump calls on China to ‘speed up’ soybean purchases | Daily sale: 330,000 MT soybeans to China for 2025-26

Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov 14
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov. 14

Today’s Updates:

AGRICULTURE & FARM ECONOMY

— SCMP: Mounting China tensions deepen U.S. farm crisis as bankruptcies,
stress and losses surge
— White House prepares “clever and generous” farm aid package, Hassett says
— Trump calls on China to ‘speed up’ soybean purchases
— USDA announces daily sales to China: 330,000 MT soybeans to China for 2025-26
— More reports rescheduled following the government shutdown
— Update on CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report
— USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) export sales catch-up schedule
— USDA’s Rollins says egg prices, grocery costs falling as Trump pushes affordability
and SNAP reform
— Davids presses Trump administration for targeted farm relief

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today: Global shares were mixed amid cautious trading
— Equities yesterday
— Fed minutes to highlight deepening divisions over 2025 rate cuts
— Trump says he’s settled on his pick for next Fed chair
— Target cuts profit outlook as shoppers pull back
— U.S. farm machinery sales drop sharply in October

AG MARKETS

— Futures markets show soybeans firms as corn and cotton slip over past three months
— Argentine farmers face delays; central Buenos Aires flooding blocks field access
— Agriculture markets yesterday

FARM POLICY

— Projected ARC/PLC payments surge for 2025

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Oil prices eased slightly as an industry report showed higher U.S. crude inventories
— Oil prices edged higher as sanctions bite and Fed signals boost risk appetite
— Revived reactor: DOE assembles $1 billion package to reopen Three Mile Island
— HHS vows to release $3.7 billion in energy aid by month’s end
— California moves toward E15 rollout, but full implementation still months away

CHINA

— China to reimpose seafood import ban on Japan
— U.S. commission warns of ‘China shock 2.0’

CONGRESS

— Cole warns slow-going talks could force a full-year CR
— House sets 2026 schedule with extended August, October recesses

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— Federal court blocks Texas redistricting map backed by Trump
— Republicans’ Senate hold looked assured — until it didn’t

FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY

— Farm Bureau: Thanksgiving dinner costs dip, but farmers still struggling

TRANSPORTATION/LOGISTICS

— U.S. port volumes hold steady despite wild year of cargo swings
— Thanksgiving travel to surge to record levels
— FAA lifts flight restrictions at 40 major airports

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest
and southern Texas, light snow in western mountains

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Nov. 19, 2025

A screenshot of a document AI-generated content may be incorrect.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

—Equities today: Global shares were mixed amid cautious trading after another selloff driven by nerves over AI valuations, as investors eyed what could be make-or-break earnings from chip giant Nvidia and U.S. jobs data this week. Wall Street futures were in positive territory after major North American markets closed lower yesterday. Traders wait to see whether Nvidia earnings (after the close) will reinvigorate lackluster markets. Analysts expect the chipmaker to show more than 50% growth in revenue for the quarter. At the Bloomberg New Economy Forum, Goldman Sachs President John Waldron said markets are primed for possible further declines, while former Barclays CEO Bob Diamond said, “This is a healthy correction, not something that’s turning into a bear market.” Regarding the Fed, there are two noteworthy speakers on the calendar today: Miran (10:00 a.m. ET) and Williams (2:00 p.m. ET) and the October FOMC meeting minutes will be released mid-afternoon (2:00 p.m. ET). The more dovish for markets, the better for stocks. In Asia, Japan -0.3%. Hong Kong -0.4%. China +0.2%. India +0.6%. In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris flat. Frankfurt +0.3%.

—Equities yesterday:

Equity Index	Closing Price Nov. 18	Point Difference from Nov. 17	% Difference from Nov. 17
Dow	46,091.74	-498.50	-1.07%
Nasdaq	22,432.85	-275.23	-1.21%
S&P 500	6,617.32	-55.09	-0.83%

—Fed minutes to highlight deepening divisions over 2025 rate cuts

Stubborn inflation and shifting market expectations widen split inside the central bank

Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s Oct. 28–29 meeting, due out today, are expected to shed more light on a widening divide among policymakers over the path for interest rates heading into 2025.

A growing faction — led by new Fed Governor Stephen Miran — continues to push for more aggressive reductions in the federal funds rate. But others on the committee argue that the Fed must proceed far more cautiously, warning that recent inflation data shows price pressures are proving stickier than expected.

Following the September meeting, Fed projections still pointed to rate cuts at the remaining 2025 meetings. But the persistence of inflation since then has raised concerns and tempered expectations.

CME Fed funds futures now show a razor-thin margin favoring a steady rate at the upcoming Dec. 9–10 meeting — an abrupt turnaround from just a week ago, when markets assigned a 63% probability to a quarter-point cut. A month earlier, ahead of the October meeting, traders were pricing in a 94% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction, and a 6% chance of a 50-basis-point move, with no expectation of a hold.

—Trump says he’s settled on his pick for next Fed chair

President signals decision is made as search narrows; reiterates frustration with Powell but says advisers are restraining him

President Donald Trump said Tuesday he believes he has already identified his choice to lead the Federal Reserve, even as he claimed unnamed advisers are preventing him from firing current Fed Chair Jerome Powell before his term ends. “I think I already know my choice,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, declining to reveal the name. “I’d love to get the guy currently in there out right now, but people are holding me back.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent — who is running the search — has narrowed the field to five candidates, according to reports. The list includes sitting Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman; former Governor Kevin Warsh; National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett; and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder.

Trump said the administration is weighing both “surprising names” and “standard names,” adding, “We may go the standard way. It’s nice to every once in a while go politically correct.”

Bessent is expected to present formal recommendations after Thanksgiving. Trump has publicly praised several contenders but has been deliberately vague about whether he favors any particular candidate. Bessent told Fox News that the president will meet with three candidates after Thanksgiving and we’ll “hopefully have an answer before Christmas.” Bessent said it definitely won’t be him.

Powell’s term as Fed chair expires in May, though he could remain a governor until 2028. Trump again floated the idea of Bessent himself taking the top Fed job but said the Treasury secretary prefers to stay in his current role.

The next Fed chair will assume a 14-year governor term beginning Feb. 1, replacing Stephen Miran, whose seat opens then. Whoever Trump names will face immediate pressure to satisfy the president’s demand for lower interest rates while preserving the central bank’s credibility with investors.

—Target cuts profit outlook as shoppers pull back

Retailer leans on holiday value deals, ai tools as traffic and sales slide

Target reported another quarter of declining sales and lowered the upper end of its full-year profit forecast, underscoring the big-box retailer’s continued struggle to win back shoppers who are visiting less frequently and hunting for deeper discounts.

The company posted third-quarter revenue of $25.27 billion, slightly below Wall Street expectations, and said adjusted full-year EPS will now range from $7 to $8, trimming the top end of its previous $7–$9 outlook. Comparable sales fell 2.7%, driven by a 2.2% drop in traffic and a 0.5% decline in average transaction size. Net income was $689 million, down 19% from a year earlier.

Incoming CEO Michael Fiddelke, who takes over Feb. 1, faces a company that has seen roughly four years of stagnant sales, intensifying competition, and reputational challenges after customer backlash to changes in its diversity programs. Shares have dropped about 67% since late 2021.

Fiddelke said Target is “focused every day” on getting back to growth and will boost capital spending by 25% next year to $5 billion to refresh stores and enhance operations. The retailer is deploying new tools — including Target Trend Brain, a generative AI system for predicting design trends, and synthetic audience modeling to test consumer reactions — as part of a broader push to sharpen its merchandising and improve consistency across online and in-store shopping.

The company announced last month it would cut 1,800 corporate jobs, its largest layoff in a decade, while redesigning merchandise assortments and adjusting fulfillment processes to free employees for customer-facing work.

Still, the latest quarter showed persistent weakness. Digital sales rose 2.4%, bolstered by more than 35% growth in same-day delivery, but overall revenue and profitability fell. September sales dropped about 4%, and executives noted added pressure from the temporary SNAP benefits pause during the government shutdown.

To appeal to budget-conscious shoppers, Target recently reduced prices on 3,000 grocery and household products and emphasized bargain-priced holiday items, such as $1 ornaments and $5 candles. This year’s holiday assortment includes 20,000 new items, more than half exclusive to Target, along with a limited-time Starbucks collaboration offering a Frozen Peppermint Hot Chocolate frappuccino.

Chief Commercial Officer Rick Gomez said consumer behavior remains consistent with recent quarters: shoppers are “stretching budgets,” prioritizing food, essentials, and beauty, and making trade-offs in discretionary spending. During Halloween, for example, candy sales outperformed even as decor sales lagged.

For the holiday season, Target still expects sales to decline by a low-single-digit percentage — but executives anticipate shoppers will continue to be selective. As Gomez put it: “The consumer will prioritize what goes under the tree versus what goes on the tree.”

—U.S. farm machinery sales drop sharply in October

Steep declines in tractors and combines reflect tightening farm budgets in 2025

U.S. farm-tractor and combine sales saw significant year-over-year declines in October, underscoring growing financial strain across the agricultural sector, according to new data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM).

AEM reported that U.S. sales of agricultural tractors fell 19.6% in October 2025 from a year earlier.

Combine sales plunged even more sharply, down 26.8%.

The pullback adds to a difficult year for machinery makers and dealers: year-to-date tractor sales are down 9.2% to 171,680 units, while combine sales are down 38.4% to just 4,970 units through the end of October.

The weakness extended north of the border, with Canadian tractor sales down 11.6% and combine sales down 17.6% for the month compared to October 2024.

Reasons for downturn: Industry analysts say the declines reflect a combination of higher borrowing costs, lower commodity prices earlier in the year, tariff-driven equipment inflation, and tighter cash flow for producers, particularly in the grain and livestock sectors. Equipment dealers have also reported rising inventories as farmers delay major capital purchases heading into 2026, if then.

Farmers Likely to Stay Cautious on Big Machinery Purchases in 2026 Several indicators suggest U.S. farmers are likely to remain cautious about large new-machinery purchases in 2026. But that caution doesn’t mean a complete halt — rather a shift in timing, type of equipment, and purchase strategy. Here’s a breakdown of the case and key watch-points: Why caution is likely to persist •The agricultural machinery market remains under pressure: The AEM and other market watchers show a prolonged contraction in new equipment sales, elevated inventories, weak credit metrics and lower trade-in values. •Financing and balance-sheet constraints: Interest rates remain elevated for farm equipment loans, trade-in values are depressed (making upgrades more expensive net of trade-in), and cash flow for many grain and row-crop producers is under pressure. Inventory & supply-chain dynamic: Even though manufacturers are scaling back production, dealers still carry excess stock of unsold equipment and used-equipment values are struggling — this creates a reluctance on both sides (dealer/manufacturer and farmer) to aggressively push new purchases. Measurement of demand: A key survey (the Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Equipment-Sales Index) shows readings deep below the 50 neutral threshold, implying contraction rather than growth. Thus, the overall tone is one of prudence: farmers are likely to defer or scale back large-capex purchases until cash flows improve, commodity prices firm, or financing becomes more favorable. But there are offsetting factors pointing to cautious optimism Some surveys show rising farmer optimism and intention to invest: For example, an article from Farm Journal indicated that “over half of farmers expect to purchase new machinery or equipment within the next 6-12 months.” The 2026 outlook is mixed but not outright doom: According to the financing outfit AgDirect, themes for 2026 include “cautious spending, value-driven purchasing, strong interest in used equipment” — i.e., farmers who do buy are likely to be selective rather than aggressive. Bottom Line: Some analysts believe 2026 could mark the beginning of a recovery in equipment purchases, albeit modest. Key implications for 2026 farm equipment purchases •Purchase timing may shift: Rather than front-loading large orders, many farmers may delay until later in the year, or wait for improved commodity or interest-rate conditions. • Preference for value / used-equipment options: As new-equipment prices remain elevated and trade-ins weak, there may be increased substitution toward late-model used equipment, refurbishment, or component upgrades rather than full replacement. •Fleet rationalization over expansion: Farmers may prioritize replacing high-hours/old machines that threaten downtime or repair costs, rather than adding capacity or buying “nice to have” upgrades. •Financing and terms will matter: With elevated interest rates, longer maturities, and risk of weaker cash flows, financing terms (leases, incentives, deferred payments) will weigh heavily in purchase decisions. • Regional & crop-type variation: Large row-crop operations may still invest if they see strong commodity outlooks (e.g., corn/soy in Midwest) whereas smaller or livestock farms may remain more conservative. Upshot: Cautious is the operative word. Many expect 2026 to be a moderate recovery year rather than a boom. Many farmers will hold off on major machinery upgrades until commodity prices, margins and interest rates align more favorably. For those who do purchase, the decisions will be more surgical — focused on ROI, financing, and timing — rather than broad fleet renewal. Most think machinery purchases will remain below pre-pandemic peak levels for the full year 2026, with perhaps 20-30% growth possible in select segments (used equipment, component upgrades, mid-sized operations) if conditions improve.

AG MARKETS

—Futures markets show soybeans firms as corn and cotton slip over past three months

Oilseeds outperform grains and softs over the past three months, while sorghum cash prices also lag

Soybean futures have strengthened over the past three months while corn and cotton have posted moderate declines, according to a comparison of front-month and continuous contract values across major exchanges. The analysis highlights diverging market fundamentals across U.S. agricultural commodities heading into late 2025 — and underscores the difficulty of tracking sorghum, which lacks a liquid standalone futures contract.

Recent soybean futures are trading about $11.57/bu., up from $10.40–$10.50 three months ago, implying an increase of about 10%.

Corn futures, by contrast, have softened. Current levels near $4.34–$4.36 compare with $4.65–$4.70 several months earlier, a decline of roughly 7%, based on market data. The pullback reflects ample supplies.

Cotton #2 futures are also lower. ICE and continuous contract data show prices now in the 62.50–64.70¢/lb range, down from 66.20–68.50¢/lb three months ago — a drop of about 5%. Weaker global textile demand and large foreign stocks continue to weigh on the market.

Sorghum does not have a widely traded U.S. futures contract, making direct comparisons impossible. Producers and traders typically hedge sorghum through corn futures, meaning its price trend likely parallels corn with additional basis adjustments. However, Tim Lust, CEO of the National Sorghum Producers, says “While prices are different across different areas, we are seeing averages in the country around $3.25-$3.50 supported by FSA Posted County Price data and data we see reported by growers. This does not match with the $3.80 November WASDE that was reported recently. This is a significant difference. We have many elevators that the farmer bid is -$1.00 per bushel off the futures.” So futures-tracking methods underestimate the real weakness in local sorghum markets. Sorghum remains far below soybeans on a percentage basis, even more than corn or cotton, confirming its position as the weakest of the major U.S. row crops in recent months. Feed demand softness and export uncertainty keep pressure on local bids, with China buying fewer U.S. sorghum cargoes than in previous cycles.

These figures reflect futures contract values, not cash elevator bids, and may differ from local merchandising markets. Because futures contracts roll and differ by delivery month, continuous prices do not always map cleanly to a single crop period. Three-month-ago benchmarks are approximate due to limitations in publicly accessible historical settlement data. Units also differ — soybeans and corn trade in bushels, while cotton trades per pound — though percentage changes remain comparable.

Overall, soybeans have been the relative outperformer in recent months, while grains and softs continue to face headwinds from strong supply and uneven global demand.

—Argentine farmers face major delays as central Buenos Aires flooding blocks field access

Widespread inundation halts plantings, prolongs weather-driven uncertainty across key grain belt

Farmers in Argentina’s central Buenos Aires province are contending with severe flooding that has made many fields inaccessible and stalled early planting progress. Persistent rains over recent weeks have saturated soils, left rural roads impassable, and forced growers to halt machinery movement just as seeding windows tighten.

Producers report that low-lying zones remain underwater, with standing water in some areas expected to take days — if not weeks — to drain. The delays add fresh uncertainty to an already fragile planting season marked by uneven precipitation patterns across Argentina’s grain belt. Agronomists warn that if flooding persists, growers may be forced to shift acreage decisions or rework planting schedules, especially for soybeans and late corn.

While some higher-elevation areas remain workable, large portions of central Buenos Aires — a core hub for soybean, corn, and wheat production — will require prolonged drying before normal field operations can resume. The episode underscores how volatile spring weather continues to shape Argentina’s crop outlook at a critical stage.

—Agriculture markets yesterday:

Commodity	Contract Month	Closing Price Nov. 18	Difference from Nov. 17
Corn	December	$4.36 3/4	+2 cents
Soybeans	January	$11.53 1/2	-3 3/4 cents
Soybean Meal	December	$327.00	– $3.80
Soybean Oil	December	52.17 cents	+103 points
Wheat SRW	December	$5.46 1/2	+2 1/4 cents
Wheat HRW	December	$5.26 1/4	-2 1/2 cents
Spring Wheat	December	$5.82 3/4	+9 cents
Cotton	December	62.57 cents	+21 points
Live Cattle	December	$220.025	-$1.25
Feeder Cattle	January	$326.05	-22 1/2 cents
Lean Hogs	December	$77.90	-67 1/2 cents

FARM POLICY

—Projected ARC/PLC payments surge for 2025

University of Illinois economists project more than $13.5 billion in farm safety-net support

A new farmdoc daily analysis projects that Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs will deliver over $13.5 billion in payments for the 2025 crop year, with funds set to reach producers in October 2026. The report (link), authored by Nick Paulson, Henrique Monaco, Gary Schnitkey, and Jonathan Coppess of the University of Illinois, and Carl Zulauf of Ohio State University, outlines how changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill (OB3) reconciliation package significantly boost expected support payments.

Major program changes drive higher payments. The authors note that OB3 — signed into law July 4, 2025 — strengthens both ARC and PLC beginning with the 2025 crop season. Because farmers made their 2025 enrollment decisions before passage, they will receive the larger of the ARC-CO or PLC payment, further increasing total outlays.

Payment estimates rely on USDA’s latest WASDE price projections and updated Farm Service Agency (FSA) program data released Nov. 14.

Payment totals by commodity. According to Paulson, Monaco, Schnitkey, Coppess, and Zulauf, projections for major crops representing 95% of base acreage include:

•Corn: Just over $6 billion on 90+ million base acres

• Wheat: More than $2.9 billion

• Seed Cotton: About $1.4 billion

• Soybeans: Above $1 billion

• Long-grain Rice: Above $1 billion

• Grain Sorghum and Peanuts: Each projected to exceed $400 million

On a per-acre basis, projected 2025 payments range from:

• $286/acre for long-grain rice

• Nearly $200/acre for peanuts

• Just under $128/acre for seed cotton

• $66/acre for corn

• Just under $50/acre for wheat and sorghum

• Just over $22/acre for soybeans

These differences, the authors explain, reflect higher effective reference prices and ARC benchmarks for rice, peanuts, and cotton relative to market price expectations.

Regional variability. The report highlights sharp variation in county-level payments:

•The southern U.S. stands out with the highest projected average payments due to concentrations of rice, cotton, and peanut base acres.

•Midwest counties dominated by corn and soybeans show strong clusters above $50/acre, particularly across Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

•Mixed-crop regions show generally lower averages.

Higher historical yields or greater yield variability tend to drive higher projected payments in both ARC and PLC.

A screenshot of a paper AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Financial pressure remains high. Despite strengthened safety-net benefits, the authors stress that low commodity prices and elevated production costs mean average returns for major row crops remain weak — often “relatively low to negative.” They note that while ARC/PLC payments for 2025 are large, they won’t arrive until October 2026, leaving many producers facing acute short-term financial stress.

With discussions under way about possible bridge funding for 2025, the report warns policymakers to be cautious. Past cycles of ad hoc aid, layered atop existing crop-year programs, complicate efforts to target support effectively and may increase long-term spending pressures, the report concludes.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

—Oil prices eased slightly as an industry report showed higher crude inventories in the United States, reinforcing concerns about oversupply, though declines were limited by a tighter fuel market because of attacks against Russian oil infrastructure. Brent crude futures dropped 0.68% to $64.45 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 0.76% at $60.28 a barrel. The American Petroleum Institute report was relatively bearish, analysts said.

Today’s weekly EIA report will be closely watched for evidence that robust consumer demand for driving fuels remains intact, according to the Sevens Report, while tomorrow’s labor market report will also be critical for the near-to-medium-term outlook for the oil market. “The $60/barrel level has been acting as a pivot-point for WTI with prices oscillating on either side of the round number in recent weeks; however, $60 would become key support if we see WTI break above last week’s high close of $61.04 on a closing basis. From there, the level to beat for the bulls would be resistance between $62 and $62.50/barrel.”

—Oil prices edged higher as sanctions bite and Fed signals boost risk appetite

Crude gains after volatile session driven by Russia supply questions and expectations of easier U.S. monetary policy

Oil prices finished higher Tuesday after a choppy trading day, lifted by shifting expectations for U.S. interest rates and ongoing uncertainty around Russian supply. Brent settled up $0.69 at $64.89, while WTI added $0.83 to close at $60.74. Futures briefly spiked more than a dollar in afternoon trading after President Donald Trump said the administration has begun interviewing candidates for the next Federal Reserve chair (see related item above) — comments traders interpreted as a sign that monetary policy could turn more accommodative, bolstering risk appetite.

Sanctions on Russia remained central to market sentiment. The U.S. Treasury said last month’s measures targeting Russia’s top oil producers are already squeezing revenues and are expected to curb exports over time. Traders are closely watching how swiftly Russian flows could be disrupted, especially as lawmakers weigh new legislation that would penalize countries still doing business with Moscow. The recent temporary shutdown at Russia’s Novorossiysk export terminal — which handles about 2% of global supply — also lingered in the background after operations resumed over the weekend following a Ukrainian strike.

Despite the day’s gains, the broader outlook remains weighed down by expectations of a sizeable surplus in 2026. Several banks have cautioned that rising global production may cap prices through the coming months, even if sanctions tighten further on Russian barrels. Markets are now looking to weekly U.S. inventory data due later Tuesday for clues about short-term demand.

—Revived reactor: DOE assembles $1 billion package to reopen Three Mile Island

Energy Dept. moves to fast-track financing as Constellation seeks to bring the mothballed plant back online and expand 24/7 power supply

The Dept. of Energy is preparing a $1 billion loan package to help Constellation Energy restart the shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear plant, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told reporters. The initiative aims to strengthen U.S. electricity reliability, curb power prices, and increase the availability of around-the-clock, carbon-free generation.

According to officials, the DOE Loan Programs Office is working directly on the financing rather than following its traditional multi-step conditional approval approach — an unusual move intended to accelerate the timeline. Constellation, the nation’s largest nuclear plant operator, will guarantee the loans.

Wright said the administration views the Three Mile Island restart as a meaningful boost to baseload capacity at a time of rising electricity demand driven by data centers, manufacturing expansion, and electrification. The effort also reflects a broader push to extend or revive legacy nuclear units as policymakers seek reliable, non-emitting energy sources capable of running continuously.

—HHS vows to release $3.7 billion in energy aid by month’s end

Federal ‘special authority’ move aims to help states front winter heating costs after shutdown delay

The Health and Human Services Department (HHS) expects to release the bulk of federal home energy assistance money to states and providers by the end of November, after a shutdown-related delay, according to an email. Andrew Gradison, principal deputy assistant secretary at HHS’ Administration for Children and Families, told Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) recipients that the agency will use “special authority” to distribute $3.7 billion in funds — most of the program’s roughly $4 billion annual allocation — so states have resources on hand for winter bills.

Gradison stressed that LIHEAP administrators “need the majority of their funds on hand to assist households during the winter months” and said HHS is working “expeditiously” to meet that goal. Funding for energy aid, like food assistance, was frozen while the federal government was shut down from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12. Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, called the announcement significant because it is the first time HHS has given states advance notice of a release, allowing them to use state dollars now with greater confidence they will be reimbursed. HHS did not immediately comment on the email, which also attributed the shutdown and LIHEAP funding delays to Democrats.

—California moves toward E15 rollout, but full implementation still months away

State approval marks a major shift, yet regulatory steps and infrastructure upgrades are still delaying widespread retail availability

California recently took a historic step toward expanding fuel choices for drivers, formally authorizing the sale of E15 gasoline — a blend containing 15% ethanol — for the first time. But despite the legislative win and growing political momentum, the blend is not yet available at most retail stations, and key regulatory work is still underway before consumers will see broader adoption.

Governor Gavin Newsom signed Assembly Bill 30 (AB 30) on Oct. 2, 2025, making California the last state in the U.S. to approve E15 sales. The move followed years of pressure from ethanol producers, fuel retailers, and lawmakers seeking lower pump prices and expanded low-carbon fuel options. State agencies have since begun the complex work needed to bring E15 into California’s highly regulated fuel market.

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has launched formal rulemaking and held hearings to determine how E15 will fit within the state’s strict emissions and fuel-quality framework. The agency is completing a required “multimedia evaluation” assessing potential environmental, health, infrastructure, and vehicle-compatibility impacts. Budget documents indicate CARB requested additional staffing — ten full-time positions — to finalize this work and draft the rules governing commercial sales.

Even with legislative approval, full implementation is still several steps away. CARB expects to issue a full 45-day rulemaking proposal later in 2026, with permanent regulations likely taking effect in early 2027. Until then, major gasoline retailers are limited in what they can do: station conversions, tank certifications, and compliance testing all hinge on final regulatory guidance.

Supporters say the effort is worth it. State analysis suggests E15 could reduce gasoline prices by as much as 20 cents per gallon and save the average California household around $200 a year. Ethanol backers also argue the blend will help reduce carbon intensity in line with the state’s Low-Carbon Fuel Standard, while giving refiners and consumers more options amid continued price volatility.

The American Coalition for Ethanol (ACE) is urging CARB to issue swift and unambiguous guidance allowing E15 sales statewide, following CARB’s Oct. 14 Scoping Workshop on E15 implementation. In newly submitted comments (link), ACE said the board must formally classify E15 as a standard gasoline-grade fuel — consistent with federal treatment — to avoid regulatory uncertainty, added costs for retailers, and confusion for consumers.

ACE Chief Marketing Officer Ron Lamberty stressed that California’s current rules lack specifications and enforcement provisions for E15, creating unnecessary delays despite the Legislature’s recent authorization of E15 through AB 30. “We urge CARB to move quickly with a clear statement that the sale of E15 is allowed in California, and provide guidance promptly, so California fuel marketers can begin offering the low-cost and clean fuel to consumers immediately,” Lamberty wrote.

He emphasized that E15’s safety and compatibility have been demonstrated through EPA and DOE research and 14 years of everyday use across the country: “E15 is no longer a new, untested product. We now have 14 years of safe, real-world use in unmodified tanks, lines, and dispensers at thousands of retail stations.”

ACE argued that treating E15 as an “alternative fuel” would raise costs for retailers, restrict adoption, and limit the air-quality benefits California aims to deliver. Instead, classifying it as a regular gasoline grade would allow immediate market entry.

The organization also said California’s fuel infrastructure is already largely compatible with E15. Lamberty pointed CARB to ACE’s Flex Check tool on flexfuelforward.com, which helps retailers confirm their tanks, lines, dispensers, and other equipment can handle E15. “The short answer is there should be little or no cost for the majority of California’s fuel terminals and retailers,” he noted.

Finally, ACE highlighted the consumer benefits: E15 typically sells 5 to 15 cents per gallon below E10, and California’s strong blending economics, compatible infrastructure, and low-RVP base fuel position the state for faster-than-average adoption once CARB gives the green light.

But challenges remain. California’s environmental standards are among the toughest in the country, and regulators want to ensure E15 does not undermine progress on ozone reduction or air-toxics mitigation. Retailers also face potential infrastructure upgrades depending on the age and design of existing tanks and pumps. Fuel-supply logistics — from terminal blending to statewide distribution — must also be aligned with California’s unique fuel formulations.

For now, California’s E15 rollout is best described as underway but incomplete. The state has opened the door legally, launched the regulatory framework, and initiated the technical reviews needed to permit commercial sales. But until CARB finalizes its rulemaking and retailers complete required upgrades, widespread access to E15 will remain several months — and likely more than a year — away.

California E15 Rollout Timeline

Milestone	Description
Oct 2, 2025	Governor Newsom signs AB 30 authorizing E15 in California.
Oct 2025	CARB begins rulemaking and hearings on E15 integration.
2025-2026	CARB conducts required multimedia evaluation (MME).
Late 2026	Expected release of formal 45-day rulemaking proposal.
Early 2027	Anticipated final regulations and early retail rollout.

CHINA

—China to reimpose seafood import ban on Japan

Diplomatic row over Taiwan remarks prompts Beijing to reverse fisheries deal with Tokyo

China will re-impose a ban on imports of Japanese seafood products, as the diplomatic row over Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent comments on Taiwan escalated and officials in Beijing prepared for a protracted dispute.

The proposed ban would effectively return to one originally put in place in August 2023, following Japan’s release of treated wastewater from the Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant.

Tokyo and Beijing had negotiated an agreement in September last year to resume imports, and Japan confirmed the first shipment of seafood to China less than two weeks ago.

Chinese officials reportedly justified the fresh ban by citing the need for further monitoring of Fukushima wastewater.

—U.S. commission warns of ‘China shock 2.0’

Panel urges coordinated global trade remedies as subsidized Chinese exports surge

The U.S./China Economic and Security Review Commission is urging Congress and the administration to build an international coalition to jointly recognize and apply antidumping and countervailing duties against China, warning that a new “Second China Shock” is already destabilizing global manufacturing.

In its annual report released Tuesday (link), the congressionally mandated panel argues that the U.S. and like-minded economies must move toward mutual recognition of trade-remedy findings so that countries impose similar penalties simultaneously — preventing Beijing from playing trading partners against one another and discouraging the diversion of subsidized Chinese goods into unprotected markets.

The report warns that China’s massive industrial overcapacity — spanning steel, autos, construction machinery and more — is flooding the world with underpriced goods and exporting Beijing’s domestic market distortions abroad. “China uses its excess capacity to manufacture goods at a scale it cannot consume on its own,” the commission writes. “Rather than rebalance its economy, China is exporting its distortions,” triggering a broad manufacturing shock already visible in both advanced and emerging markets.

China’s exports of autos and machinery are highlighted as key pressure points. Chinese automakers are rapidly eroding U.S., European and Japanese market share, while construction-equipment giants are now earning roughly half their revenue abroad — a dramatic shift from the peak of China’s property boom. The report notes that Europe and the U.K. have already imposed duties on some Chinese machinery, but Southeast Asia is increasingly absorbing Beijing’s growing export wave.

Emerging economies are also filing more WTO-allowed trade cases, but many struggle to calculate accurate dumping margins due to China’s distorted domestic prices. The U.S. uses surrogate-country data for non-market economies; most countries lack such tools, resulting in weaker remedies.

The panel argues that WTO rules only allow action after economic damage has occurred, often too late to save industries. Meanwhile, the absence of coordinated responses has allowed China to retaliate selectively — as seen when Germany abstained from the EU’s vote to impose EV tariffs amid fears Beijing would punish its auto sector.

To counter what it calls “China Shock 2.0,” the commission recommends:

• Mutual recognition of AD/CVD findings: Congress should authorize a voluntary, expedited system enabling coordinated trade remedies among partner countries. Under such a mechanism, one country’s finding of an unfair trade practice could be adopted by another, and partners could jointly pressure third countries to act.

• A State Dept. analysis of the shock’s impact on developing economies: The study would detail how subsidized Chinese exports are reshaping markets and propose policies to blunt Beijing’s expanding influence.

• Creation of a multilateral forum led by USTR, State, Treasury, and Commerce to coordinate global responses, ensure reciprocal market access, and protect U.S. exporters facing distorted competition.

The commission concludes that without such a unified strategy, the next China shock will be “more widespread” than the first, reshaping global industrial supply chains and deepening U.S. and allied dependence on Chinese production.

CONGRESS

—Cole warns slow-going talks could force a full-year CR

House Appropriations chair signals he’ll push to avoid dragging negotiations into 2026 election cycle

House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) is preparing to tell his subcommittee chairs that any FY2026 spending bills not finalized by Jan. 30 — when the current continuing resolution (CR) expires — should be folded into a full-year CR, a move he openly acknowledged he does not prefer but views as increasingly necessary given the calendar.

Cole meets today with the Appropriations “cardinals” to gauge the path forward and will underscore that Congress cannot afford to let unresolved bills slip deeper into an already fraught 2026 election year. “I don’t want to do that,” Cole said of a full-year stopgap. “I want to get all these bills done. But I don’t want this dragging into next year and then delaying us again in what’s already going to be a pretty challenging environment simply because it’s an election year.”

Cole described his Tuesday discussion with Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) as “excellent,” though no decisions were made. He aims to assemble another “minibus” package before Christmas and is weighing which bills could realistically move this year. Easier consensus measures may be paired and advanced in December, while the more contentious Defense and Labor-HHS-Education bills could slip to January.

His suggestion of a full-year CR is expected to face resistance from both Democrats and some Republicans who want Congress to return to the regular appropriations process rather than rely on sweeping stopgaps to avert shutdowns.

—House sets 2026 schedule with extended August, October recesses

Election-year calendar gives members lengthy district time; sessions total 29 weeks

House lawmakers will spend most of August and October 2026 back in their districts as they prepare for the midterm elections, according to a newly released calendar (link).

The schedule outlines 29 full or partial working weeks, with customary breaks around Christmas, Labor Day, and other federal holidays. The plan largely mirrors previous election-year calendars, including 2024, with one notable change: the House is scheduled to hold votes on Veterans Day in 2026, unlike this year.

Discussions surrounding fiscal 2026 appropriations will likely occupy the House’s first month back as the deadline to pass nine remaining spending bills or another stopgap measure is Jan. 30.

The Senate hasn’t released its 2026 calendar.

As always, the calendar may shift. This year’s unprecedented 50-plus-day recess during the longest federal government shutdown on record underscored how quickly congressional schedules can change.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

—Federal court blocks Texas redistricting map backed by Trump

Ruling eliminates GOP path to five additional House seats in 2026

A federal court has struck down Texas’ congressional redistricting plan — a map strongly championed by President Donald Trump — closing off what Republicans had hoped would be a five-seat pickup in next year’s midterm elections.

In its ruling, the court found that the map violated federal protections for minority voters, concluding that Texas lawmakers intentionally diluted the political power of Latino, Black, and Asian American communities in several fast-growing regions. Judges pointed specifically to districts in the Dallas/Fort Worth suburbs, Houston’s outer counties, and South Texas as areas where the Legislature’s mapmakers failed to meet Voting Rights Act requirements.

The decision is a major setback for Republicans, who had viewed the map as a crucial part of their strategy to expand the party’s narrow House majority. Trump had repeatedly praised the Texas plan at campaign events, calling it “a model for the country” and urging other GOP-led states to adopt similar approaches.

Democrats and civil-rights groups celebrated the ruling, arguing that the map represented one of the most aggressive examples of partisan gerrymandering in decades. They noted that despite nearly all of Texas’ population growth over the last decade coming from minority communities, the struck-down plan would have reduced the number of districts where voters of color could meaningfully influence outcomes.

With the ruling in place, Texas will likely need to submit a revised map on an expedited basis. If lawmakers cannot agree on a new plan — or if subsequent revisions also fail legal scrutiny — the court could impose its own interim map to ensure districts are in place for the 2026 elections.

Republicans are expected to appeal, but for now, a path to a five-seat GOP gain has been effectively closed.

Impact of California’s New Congressional Map
California’s adoption of a legislature-drawn congressional map — replacing the independent redistricting commission for the 2026, 2028, and 2030 cycles — marks one of the most significant redistricting shifts in the country. The new map is projected to add 5–6 safe or strongly leaning Democratic seats, tightening the national House battlefield and complicating Republican efforts to expand their majority in 2026.The plan creates more Latino-majority or Latino-influence districts, especially in Los Angeles County, the Inland Empire, and the Central Valley — a key reason the DOJ and California GOP have challenged the map in federal court.Republicans argue the design constitutes a racial gerrymander, while Democrats defend it as reflecting population growth and demographic realities.If upheld, the map would solidify Democratic dominance in California’s House delegation for the remainder of the decade, shifting several formerly competitive seats firmly into Democratic territory. Lawsuits are ongoing, but legal experts say challengers will have a harder time proving a racial gerrymander than a partisan one, since federal courts cannot strike down maps simply for being politically biased.For now, unless the courts intervene swiftly, California’s new map is likely to stand for 2026, strengthening Democrats’ national House position and further reducing the number of true swing districts in the state.

—Republicans’ Senate hold looked assured — until it didn’t

New RealClearPolitics polling shows tightening dynamics as Democrats eye a narrow path back to the majority

Republicans entered the 2026 cycle with every structural advantage: a favorable map, few vulnerable GOP incumbents, and Democrats defending most of the competitive seats. For much of the year, analysts considered it nearly impossible for the GOP to lose its 53–47 Senate majority.

But early November elections altered the landscape. Democratic over-performance across several states — coupled with shifting national polling — has cut Republicans’ odds of holding the chamber to roughly 67%, according to updated modeling. The newfound volatility has given Democrats a meaningful, if still uphill, path to reclaiming the Senate.

A narrow but real Democratic path. Democrats’ route requires threading the needle in a handful of GOP-held states while protecting their own incumbents. The map remains tough, but the momentum generated from recent off-year results has party strategists reassessing what once looked like a static playing field.

RealClearPolitics data shows national winds favor Democrats. According to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) Average, Democrats now lead the 2026 Generic Congressional Ballot by 4.6 points — a dramatic inversion from Republicans’ 2.7-point advantage in 2024. This shift suggests a broader national environment leaning toward Democrats, even as the Senate map remains structurally favorable to Republicans.

Trump’s approval remains deeply underwater. President Trump’s standing also weighs on GOP prospects. Per the RCP Average, Trump’s net job approval — which had improved slightly after the end of the shutdown — now sits at -11.9. That is almost identical to President Biden’s approval at the same point in his first term (-12.2 on Nov. 18, 2021).

While presidential approval does not always dictate midterm or off-year Senate performances, historically it shapes the overall climate — and Democrats are banking on that trend holding.

Bottom Line: Republicans remain favored to retain the Senate in 2026, but what once looked inevitable is now competitive. With national polling swinging toward Democrats and Trump’s approval still deeply negative, Democrats’ slim path to 51 seats is no longer theoretical — it’s emerging.

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FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY

—Thanksgiving dinner costs dip, but farmers still struggling

AFBF survey shows 5% decline, with sides driving higher costs despite cheaper turkey

The 40th annual American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) Thanksgiving dinner survey (link) shows a 5% drop in the cost of a classic holiday meal for 10 people — now averaging $55.18 — but the decline doesn’t erase years of elevated food inflation nor the deep financial stress on U.S. farm families who produce the ingredients.

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AFBF’s longstanding thanksgiving basket tradition. Since 1986, the Farm Bureau has relied on volunteer shoppers in all 50 states and Puerto Rico to price a standard basket of Thanksgiving staples: turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, dinner rolls, peas, cranberries, celery, carrots, pumpkin pie mix, pie crusts, whole milk and whipping cream. This year’s results reflect a mixed environment — some relief for consumers but rising costs for growers.

Turkey prices fall sharply, no longer the cost driver. For the first time in decades, turkey accounts for less than 40% of the classic meal’s total cost — its lowest share since 2000. A 16-pound turkey averages $21.50, down 16% from 2024. Frozen turkey prices continued to decline, even as fresh turkey remains costly due to persistent HPAI challenges. U.S. turkey consumption keeps sliding, now roughly 13 pounds per person per year, down nearly 3 pounds in six years.

Side dishes now weigh heaviest on the receipt. Despite the overall decline, the cost burden has shifted toward side dishes. AFBF economists note that rising production costs — fertilizer, fuel, machinery, labor and land — are reshaping the price profile of the meal.

Biggest increases:

• Vegetable tray (carrots/celery): up 61%

•Sweet potatoes: up 37% (North Carolina hurricane damage cut yields)

• Fresh produce volatility tied to weather, labor shortages and transportation pressures remains a key factor.

Items that declined:

• Dinner rolls: –14.6%

• Stuffing mix: –9%

• Cranberries: –2.8%

Pumpkin pie ingredients were essentially unchanged.

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Expanded meal: Nearly flat from 2024. When including ham, Russet potatoes and green beans — items added to the survey in 2018 — the total price rises to $77.09 or $7.71 per person. This broader basket is essentially unchanged from last year, down just 28 cents.

Regional price differences remain stark. AFBF’s regional analysis shows:

Classic dinner (10 people):

• West: $61.75 (highest)

• Northeast: $60.82

• Midwest: $54.38

• South: $50.01 (lowest)

Expanded Basket:

•West: $84.97 (highest)

• Northeast: $82.97

•Midwest: $76.33

• South: $71.20 (lowest)

Farm Families Face a Harsh Economic Backdrop. AFBF underscores that farm and ranch families remain under intense strain:

•Crop prices have dropped again.

• Input costs — fuel, fertilizer, machinery, labor — remain persistently high.

• Weather disasters (drought, flooding, hurricanes) reduced production.

• Export demand is weakening.

Many operations are now below breakeven, contributing to rising financial stress across rural America.

Bottom Line: The Farm Bureau’s latest Thanksgiving survey shows consumer relief, but it comes as American farmers head into 2026 facing a “poor farm economy” and tightening margins. While grocery store prices for several items eased this year, the underlying pressures — labor shortages, supply-chain disruptions, and extreme weather — continue to shape both the cost of the holiday table and the livelihoods of the families who make it possible.

TRANSPORTATION/LOGISTICS

—U.S. port volumes hold steady despite wild year of cargo swings

Front-loaded imports and resilient consumer demand keep 2025 on track to match last year’s throughput

A year that lurched between shipping surges and slow patches now appears likely to finish with overall seaborne cargo volumes roughly in line with 2024, according to operators of the largest U.S. container gateways. Solid consumer demand helped steady the outlook after a front-loaded first half padded port totals.

The Port of Los Angeles — the nation’s busiest maritime trade hub — handled about 848,400 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in October, a 6% drop from the same month last year. Roughly 429,300 of those were loaded imports, down 7% from October 2024. Loaded exports, making up about 15% of total throughput, ticked slightly higher year over year.

Gene Seroka, the port’s executive director, said Tuesday that LA moved 8.6 million TEUs during the first 10 months of 2025, roughly 2% ahead of last year’s pace. The year-to-date performance “puts us in a strong position heading into the final stretch of 2025,” Seroka said, adding that the port is within striking distance of surpassing 10 million TEUs for only the third time. He expects volumes to ease by 10% to 15% through year-end due to normal seasonal slowing.

Looking into 2026, he relayed that the view on the ground is “caution” about business decisions and “hopeful” for stability as President Donald Trump’s taxes on American importers are still elevated and trade deals remain unresolved. “That’s why many CEOs and logistics leaders I’ve spoken with, both overseas and here at home, are saying they’re still holding back on new capital investments and to a large extent hiring until there’s more clarity on trade policy and tariffs,” Seroka said.

At the Port of Savannah on the East Coast, total volumes in the January-to-October period were 4.8 million TEUs, up about 4%, even as last month’s figures were down 8.4% from a year earlier. “We’ve been impacted by the trade downturn, so we look forward to seeing more trade deals come together and we’re hopeful the market bounces back in the new year,” Georgia Ports President and CEO Griff Lynch said in a press release.

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—Thanksgiving travel to surge to record levels

AAA says 81.8 million Americans will hit the roads, skies and rails

AAA is forecasting the busiest Thanksgiving travel period on record, with an estimated 81.8 million Americans expected to travel at least 50 miles between Nov. 25 and Dec. 1. That’s 1.6 million more travelers than last year, underscoring strong demand for holiday travel despite crowding, shifting flight schedules, and lingering cost concerns.

Vice President of AAA Travel Stacey Barber said Thanksgiving remains a holiday people prioritize for in-person gatherings, with millions willing to adjust plans to see friends and family.

Most travelers are driving

Roughly 73 million people — about 90% of all holiday travelers — will be on the road. That’s up by 1.3 million from last year and could grow if more flyers pivot to driving due to cancellations.

Air and other travel modes also rise

About 6 million Americans are expected to fly, a 2% increase over 2024, though cancellations may sway final numbers.

Another 2.5 million travelers will take trains, buses, or cruises, an 8.5% jump from last year.

Holiday costs hold steady

• Car rentals: Hertz says the Wednesday before Thanksgiving will be the busiest rental day, though domestic rental prices are 15% lower than last year.

• Flights: Round-trip domestic airfare averages $700, similar to 2024.

• Gas: Prices remain in line with last year’s Thanksgiving average of $3.06 per gallon.

Top destinations

Domestic: Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, Miami, Anaheim/Los Angeles, Tampa, New York City, San Francisco, Honolulu, Las Vegas and Atlanta.

International: Paris, Amsterdam, Vienna, Cancun, Punta Cana, Basel, Sydney, Barcelona, Budapest and Aruba.

—FAA lifts flight restrictions at 40 major airports

Agency says staffing has stabilized enough to ease pressure on the national airspace system

The Federal Aviation Administration has formally published the notice, effective Nov. 17, that ends flight restrictions at 40 major U.S. airports put in place during the latter stages of the government shutdown. “The FAA has continued to monitor data on National Airspace System (NAS) operations and has determined that ATO staffing levels have maintained at a consistently sufficient level to reduce stress on the NAS,” the agency said.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the

Southwest on Wednesday and southern Texas on Thursday… …Light snow over parts of the southern Utah Mountains, the Colorado Mountains, and the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

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Ag Intel

Report: Mounting China Tensions Deepen U.S. Farm Crisis as Bankruptcies, Stress and Losses Surge

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