White House Continues to Ease Food Tariffs to Cut Grocery Costs

Farmers in high anxiety mode over coming farm aid | U.S. beef access stalls and screwworm risks rise, NCBA warns

Link: Trump Expands Tariff Cuts on Brazilian Food Imports, Including Coffee, Beef
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov 14, updated later today
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov. 14, updated later today

Today’s Updates:

TOP ITEMS
— U.S. signals openness to easing EU food tariffs as part of broader push
to cut grocery costs
— Coffee prices sink as Trump scraps 40% tariffs on Brazilian imports
— U.S. beef access stalls and screwworm risks rise, NCBA warns
— White House/USDA should note Thursday’s futures prices for key ag commodities
— USDA reports today: Grain Crushings, Fats and Oils and Cotton Systems reports for
Aug are due today at 3 pm ET. Were scheduled for release Oct. 1

FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: U.S. equity futures are higher as markets try to stabilize
following Thursday’s reversal following a quiet night of news.
— Equities yesterday: meltdown
— Why NVDA’s blowout earnings didn’t lift the market
— Banks pivot to smaller $5 billion repo plan for Argentina as big bailout fades
— Cleveland Fed’s Hammack warns rate cuts could fuel inflation, heighten market risks

AG MARKETS
— China deepens grip on Brazilian agriculture as trade and investment ties expand
— Uruguay’s beef momentum builds in U.S. market
— Cotton AWP edges lower
— Top 5 importers of U.S. corn, for week ending Oct. 2, 2025
— U.S. meat & poultry processors’ impact surges
— Agriculture markets yesterday

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil prices slide for third straight session
— Oil prices eased Thursday as U.S. pushes Ukraine on new peace framework
— China’s storage surge and satellite visibility are rewriting oil market rules
— Trump DOE reorganization scraps clean-energy offices

TRADE POLICY
— CBO revises tariff windfall downward as new data cuts deficit impact
— Tariffs, productivity, and the price puzzle

CONGRESS
— Appropriators debate next minibus
— Reconciliation on the horizon?
— ACA/ObamaCare subsidy deadline looms

POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Utah GOP faces time crunch on appealing court-drawn map creating
new Democratic seat
— Trump’s Texas gerrymander backfires as court rejects mid-decade map

NOMINATIONS
— CFTC nominee advances amid expanding agency mandate

FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY
— New dairy options on the lunch line

TRANSPORTATION/LOGISTICS
— U.S./China pause on port fees and tariffs aims to ease costs and boost ag trade

WEATHER
— NOAA issues 2025–2026 U.S. winter weather outlook
— Agricultural implications of the 2025–2026 NOAA Winter Outlook
— NWS outlook: Additional heavy rain and flash flooding threat for southern California,
western Arizona and southern Nevada today and Saturday; record warmth along the
Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley; Arctic air absent from the Lower 48

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Nov. 21, 2025

A graph showing the price of coffee AI-generated content may be incorrect.

A graph of a number of bars AI-generated content may be incorrect.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today: U.S. equity futures are higher as markets try to stabilize following Thursday’s reversal following a quiet night of news. Global stocks sank mostly on momentum from Thursday’s U.S. declines and following underwhelming data. Turning to the Fed, Williams (7:30 a.m. ET) and Logan (9:00 a.m. ET) speak this morning and the more dovish they are, the better. Of note: A final November consumer-sentiment reading is due from the University of Michigan at 10 a.m. ET. A preliminary readout indicated sentiment has fallen toward record-low levels. Also due: a delayed BLS report on inflation-adjusted earnings (8:30 a.m. ET). In Asia, Japan -2.4%. Hong Kong -2.4%. China -2.5%. India -0.5%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.3%. Paris -0.3%. Frankfurt -0.8%.

— Equities yesterday:

Equity Index	Closing Price Nov. 20	Point Difference from Nov. 19	% Difference from Nov. 19
Dow	45,752.26	-386.51	-0.84%
Nasdaq	22,078.05	-486.18	-2.15%
S&P 500	6,538.76	-103.40	-1.56%

— NVDA’s blowout earnings didn’t lift the market — Here’s why

Sevens Report: Strong Nvidia results didn’t answer Wall Street’s real AI question

The Sevens Report explains that Nvidia’s earnings were not the problem — they were excellent, as virtually everyone expected. The issue is that NVDA’s results did nothing to resolve the deeper source of investor anxiety: whether the hyperscalers and AI developers are massively overbuilding datacenter and compute capacity.

Key Points from the Sevens Report

1. NVDA’s results were already priced in.

Nvidia surged 5% on strong earnings and bullish guidance, but — as the Sevens Report notes — no one on Wall Street expected a miss. With tech giants (MSFT, AMZN, META, GOOGL, ORCL) and AI labs (OpenAI, Anthropic) pouring money into hardware, a blowout quarter was the consensus expectation.

2. The market’s core worry is not NVDA demand — it’s future AI demand.

The report frames the underlying concern with a simple question:

“Do we need all this capacity?”

Even record demand for NVDA chips does not answer whether the enormous build-out of data centers and compute power will ultimately be justified. That uncertainty is what has driven the recent AI pullback.

3. NVDA doesn’t resolve fears of overcapacity.

Investors are increasingly skeptical that the current AI investment boom is sustainable.

The Sevens Report emphasizes that the market is wrestling with whether hyperscalers and AI firms:

• are over-investing in compute,

• are at risk of creating a capacity glut, and

• may be fueling the early stages of an AI bubble.

Strong NVDA earnings don’t address — or alleviate — those macro concerns.

4. Fed commentary compounded the selloff.

Adding to the reversal, several Fed officials issued hawkish comments on inflation and asset-price risks, which hit risk appetite and accelerated profit-taking in NVDA and other AI names.

— Banks pivot to smaller $5 billion repo plan for Argentina as big bailout fades

WSJ reports lenders are shelving a $20 billion rescue package and instead exploring a short-term facility to help Buenos Aires meet a looming January debt payment

Major international banks have abandoned discussions over a sweeping $20 billion bailout package for Argentina and are now concentrating on a much smaller, short-term debt relief plan, the Wall Street Journal reports. According to people familiar with the effort, lenders are instead evaluating a roughly $5 billion repurchase — or “repo” — facility that would provide near-term liquidity to the cash-strapped government.

Under the proposal, Argentina would temporarily exchange a portfolio of state-held investments for dollars supplied by the banks. The move would give Buenos Aires immediate access to funds needed to cover a roughly $4 billion debt payment due in January. The WSJ notes that banks grew hesitant to pursue the larger $20 billion package while awaiting clarity from the U.S. Treasury on acceptable collateral and guarantees that would shield lenders from losses.

The repo plan is designed as a bridge: Argentina would later seek to raise additional billions from international bond markets and then use those proceeds to repay the repo facility. But the WSJ cautions that the effort remains in early stages and could still collapse as negotiations continue.

— Cleveland Fed’s Hammack warns rate cuts could fuel inflation, heighten market risks

Beth Hammack cautions that easing policy to support jobs may backfire, extending high inflation and encouraging excessive risk-taking as Fed officials remain split ahead of the December meeting.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack warned Thursday that cutting interest rates to bolster the labor market could backfire by prolonging above-target inflation and increasing financial stability risks.

Pointing to recent stock market gains and easy credit conditions, Hammack said looser policy may embolden investors to take on additional risk — setting up the economy for a sharper downturn later. “Lowering interest rates to support the labor market risks prolonging this period of elevated inflation, and it could also encourage risk-taking in financial markets,” she said in remarks prepared for a Cleveland Fed conference.

Her comments come as investors scale back expectations for a December rate cut amid growing divisions inside the Federal Open Market Committee. Minutes from the Fed’s October meeting showed many officials leaning against further reductions this year, though “several participants” still see room for easing when policymakers gather Dec. 9–10.

The Cleveland Fed chief also reacted to Thursday’s newly released September jobs numbers — delayed by the government shutdown — which showed 119,000 jobs added and unemployment ticking up to 4.4%. She described the report as “mixed” and “stale” in a CNBC interview, reiterating that inflation remains uncomfortably high despite some signs of labor-market softening.

Hammack has consistently argued that the Fed must maintain pressure to bring inflation back to its 2% goal. She opposed the October rate cut and sees little justification for another reduction in December.

AG MARKETS

— China deepens grip on Brazilian agriculture as trade and investment ties expand

Surging Chinese demand for soybeans and beef accelerates Brazil’s export boom and fuels new infrastructure investment amid rising global protectionism.

China’s role as Brazil’s dominant agricultural buyer is becoming even more entrenched, solidifying a trade relationship that now underpins Brazil’s export earnings, logistics development, and broader economic strategy. With Chinese demand for soybeans, beef, and other commodities holding firm, Brazil is poised to close the year with record volumes and expanded bilateral cooperation.

Henry Osvald, president of the Brazilian Association of Industry, Trade and Innovation in China, told the Global Times that Chinese demand is “vital” for Brazilian producers — not only because of China’s sheer buying power, but because it offers stability in an increasingly volatile global market.

That demand is reflected in the numbers. The National Association of Cereal Exporters (ANEC) projects Brazil will ship 8 million tons of soybeans in November and December, bringing 2025 exports to 110 million tons. Roughly 79% of those soybeans will go to China, reinforcing Brazil’s dominant share of the global soybean market.

Chinese appetite for Brazilian beef is equally strong; more than 40% of China’s beef imports now come from Brazil, according to China’s Ministry of Agriculture.

Osvald said this purchasing power is also catalyzing new Chinese investments in Brazilian logistics, including ports, railways, and export corridors — areas where high operating costs have long constrained competitiveness. China’s demand, he noted, “drives quality and investment,” pushing Brazilian companies to meet higher standards while enabling lower-cost export routes.

Beyond trade flows, the relationship is shaped by China’s upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), which is expected to set priorities for economic modernization and investment rules. Osvald described the plan as a source of “certainty and strategic direction” for foreign partners like Brazil at a time when global protectionism continues to rise.

Experts say this is part of a broader regional pattern. Wang Youming of the China Institute of International Studies argues that China has become the most reliable buyer for major Latin American agricultural exporters — including Brazil, Chile, and Peru — as geopolitical tensions reshape global trade. China is now the largest trading partner for all three nations.

For Brazil, the calculus is clear: in a fragmented global economy, a vast and predictable market — one willing to invest directly in infrastructure — offers strategic advantages. As long as global trade remains uncertain, China’s influence in Brazilian agriculture is likely to grow.

— Uruguay’s beef momentum builds in U.S. market

Importers signal rising demand as political volatility and tight U.S. cattle supplies reshape buying patterns

Uruguay is strengthening its foothold in the U.S. beef market, with American importers reporting growing interest in Uruguayan product amid high domestic prices, firm consumption, and the smallest U.S. cattle herd in 70 years. That was the key takeaway from the latest meeting of MICA, the association representing U.S. meat importers, according to Dr. Gonzalo Valdés of the Uruguayan Rural Association.

Valdés said Uruguay now matches domestic U.S. beef in buyer perceptions of quality, particularly for specific cuts. While most trade still revolves around industrial trimmings, several importers emphasized they need more Uruguayan beef — even at steep tariff rates of 36.4% out-of-quota and 10% in-quota.

Political uncertainty in Washington is shaping sentiment just as much as market fundamentals. Importers remain wary of pending Supreme Court rulings, shifting tariff-quota policies involving Argentina and the UK, and measures announced by the U.S. government but not yet implemented. “Today, no one can say for sure what will happen tomorrow,” Valdés said.

Regional competitors are navigating their own challenges. Brazil’s additional tariff has sharply curtailed its U.S. shipments, while Argentina has gained a larger quota but lacks clarity on how it will operate. Valdés called the broader environment “enormously volatile,” though he does not expect Argentine growth to significantly hurt Uruguay in 2026.

U.S. buyers estimate it could take nearly three years to rebuild the American cattle herd, keeping demand for imported beef elevated. That outlook reinforces Uruguay’s strong short-term market position.

Valdés also addressed the recent decline in Uruguayan cattle prices, citing a mix of U.S. market signals, expectations around China’s safeguard mechanism, European dynamics, and a domestic market that had become out of line with export values. Even so, he believes steer prices may be near a bottom as Uruguay enters crucial weeks marked by the closing of the 481 quota, feedlot slaughter timing, and multiple international variables moving at once.

The “481 quota” was created to settle a long-running WTO dispute over the EU’s ban on hormone-treated beef. In exchange for concessions, the U.S. opened this special quota to supply “High Quality Beef” — defined largely by grain-feeding standards. Historically ~65,000 metric tons per year for the total group of eligible suppliers. Originally the suppliers were only the EU, but it was later expanded to include Uruguay, Argentina, and Australia, among others. Beef must come from grain-fed cattle, typically 100+ days on feed, meeting strict quality specifications. In-quota shipments enter without tariffs, making them far more competitive. Uruguay developed a strong feedlot sector specifically to qualify for this quota. When the “481 days”—the technical window for grain feeding—close or fill up early, Uruguay’s beef may have to enter outside the quota, facing much higher tariffs, which directly affects demand and pricing. Because it’s a shared quota, major suppliers can fill it quickly. Once the quota is exhausted for a quarter: Uruguay loses duty-free access, and exporters face steep out-of-quota tariffs until the next quarterly opening.

— Cotton AWP edges lower. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton is at 50.80 cents per pound, effective today (Nov. 21), down from 51.83 cents per pound the prior week. This makes an LDP of 1.2 cent available marks and four out of the last seven weeks where an LDP has been available. Prior to this week, LDPs of 0.17 cent (Nov. 14), 0.11 cent (Oct. 24), and 0.36 cent (Oct. 17) were available as the AWP in those weeks had moved below the 52-cent threshold.

— Top 5 importers of U.S. corn, for week ending Oct. 2, 2025

Top 5 importers of U.S. corn, for the week ending Oct. 2, 2025

Importer / Item	YTD MY 2025/26 (1,000 mt)	YTD MY 2024/25 (1,000 mt)	% Change from Last MY	Exports 3-year Avg 2022-24 (1,000 mt)
Mexico	9,926	8,046	23	19,839
Japan	3,769	2,094	80	10,478
Colombia	2,124	1,606	32	5,493
China	0	6	-100	3,461
Korea	2,119	144	1369	3,127
Top 5 importers	15,820	11,752	35	39,272
Total U.S. corn export sales	29,384	17,650	66	54,276
% of YTD current month’s export projection	38%	25%	–	–
Change from prior week	2,232	1,222	–	–
Top 5 importers’ share of U.S. corn export sales	54%	67%	–	72%
USDA forecast November 2025	78,109	71,886	9	–
Corn use for ethanol USDA forecast, Nov 2025	142,240	138,075	3	–

Note: The top 5 importers are based on USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) marketing year ranking reports for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 (September 1 – August 31). “Total commitments” = cumulative exports (shipped) + outstanding sales (unshipped), from FAS weekly export sales report, or export sales query. Total commitments’ change (net sales) from prior week could include revisions from previous week’s outstanding sales or accumulated sales. In rightmost column, “Exports” = accumulated exports (as defined in FAS marketing year ranking reports). mt = metric ton; yr. = year; avg. = average; YTD = year to date; “-” = not applicable.
Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service.

— U.S. meat & poultry processors’ impact surges

Study: Sector adds $57.3 billion to U.S. Economy, supports 584,000 jobs

The Meat Institute released a new economic study (link) showing the meat and poultry processing sector remains a major driver of U.S. economic activity, contributing $57.3 billion in direct value and supporting 584,000 direct jobs nationwide. When factoring in indirect and induced impacts across feed, livestock production, equipment, and transportation, the broader meat and poultry industry generates $347.7 billion in total value and sustains more than 3.2 million jobs.

Meat Institute President and CEO Julie Anna Potts said the findings underscore the industry’s central role in rural America, noting that processors are often the largest employers in their communities and make “irreplaceable contributions” through taxes, food donations, and investments in housing, schools, childcare, and community spaces.

The study, conducted by Decision Innovation Solutions, details economic contributions at the state and congressional district levels. States with the greatest impact include Texas, Nebraska, Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina, Kansas, California, and Arkansas, while top districts include Nebraska-3, Iowa-4, Texas-13, Kansas-1, Minnesota-1, and Arkansas-3.

Key Findings (Direct Processing Sector, 2025):

• $57.3B in value

• 584,000 jobs

• $40.6B in labor income

• $311B in total sales

• $12.5B in taxes

Total Economic Contribution (Including Indirect & Induced):

• $347.7B in value

• 3.2M+ jobs

• $205.3B in labor income

• $911.7B in total sales

• $77B in taxes

The full national, state, and district-level data are available in the complete study.

— Agriculture markets yesterday:

Commodity	Contract Month	Closing Price Nov .20	Change from Nov. 19
Corn	December	4.26 1/2	-3.25c
Soybeans	January	11.22 1/2	-13.75c
Soybean Meal	December	314.00	-4.90
Soybean Oil	December	50.66	-0.44
Wheat SRW	December	5.27	-9.75c
Wheat HRW	December	5.06 1/4	-9.25c
Cotton	December	61.68	-0.62
Live Cattle	December	214.725	-1.575
Feeder Cattle	January	316.375	-5.075
Lean Hogs	December	79.475	+0.625

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Oil prices slide for third straight session

Peace-push signals potential supply boost as rate uncertainty weighs on markets

Oil prices fell sharply on Friday, dropping nearly 2% and extending losses into a third consecutive session as diplomatic momentum between the United States, Ukraine, and Russia raised the prospect of increased global supply — just as shifting expectations for U.S. interest rates dampened investor appetite for risk.

Brent crude slid $1.02, 1.6%, to $62.36 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.9%, $1.10, to $57.90. Both benchmarks are on track for weekly declines exceeding 3%, wiping out last week’s gains.

Market sentiment turned decisively bearish as Washington advanced a peace framework aimed at ending the three-year Russia/Ukraine war, coinciding with Friday’s implementation of U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signaled willingness to work with Washington on a plan, providing some relief to markets worried about tighter Russian supply.

Markets doubt the new sanctions will meaningfully restrict Russian supply, especially as Lukoil has until Dec. 13 to divest its global holdings.

A strengthening dollar added further pressure. With expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut falling to 35%, down from roughly 90% a month ago, rate uncertainty is contributing to the downtrend in crude.

— Oil prices eased Thursday as U.S. pushes Ukraine on new peace framework

Renewed diplomatic effort with Russia tempers geopolitical risk despite bullish U.S. inventory data

Oil prices drifted lower Thursday as the Trump administration intensified its effort to persuade Ukraine to consider a U.S.-drafted peace framework with Russia — moves that traders interpreted as potentially reducing geopolitical risk and eventually opening the door to higher Russian oil flows. Brent slipped 13 cents to $63.38, while WTI fell 30 cents to $59.14.

Prices had traded higher earlier in the session after a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude inventories. Government data showed crude stocks fell 3.4 million barrels last week, driven by stronger refinery runs and resilient export demand. But gasoline and distillate inventories rose for the first time in over a month, suggesting some cooling in domestic consumption.

Market attention shifted quickly to Washington’s renewed diplomatic push. The U.S. proposal reportedly includes territorial concessions and military restrictions for Ukraine — terms Kyiv has rejected before. President Zelenskiy said Thursday he would review the plan and continue discussions with Washington, creating uncertainty over whether upcoming sanctions deadlines might be delayed if talks show progress.

Sanctions targeting dealings with Russia’s major oil producers are set to take effect Friday, with a second deadline in December requiring Lukoil to divest its foreign assets. Traders remain highly sensitive to how these measures could interact with any political movement on the conflict — and what that could mean for global oil supply.

— China’s storage surge and satellite visibility are rewriting oil market rules

Barron’s commentary by Kayrros chief analyst Antoine Halff says a fearless, hyper-transparent oil market no longer reacts to shocks the way it once did — forcing governments and traders to rethink energy-security and pricing assumptions

A structural transformation. Antoine Halff, Kayrros chief analyst and formerly IEA Chief Analyst, writing in Barron’s, argues that the global oil market is undergoing a structural transformation that has rendered many old assumptions obsolete. Despite a clear oversupply — global production well above consumption — prices have not collapsed as traditional models would predict. Instead, two powerful forces are reshaping how the market absorbs shocks and interprets risk: China’s massive storage expansion and unprecedented transparency from satellite, shipping, and geospatial data.

China as the World’s Oil Shock Absorber

Halff highlights a profound shift: China’s storage capacity is expanding faster than its oil demand or even its inventory builds. Since 2020, Chinese crude stocks have climbed to new records, yet inventories as a share of capacity have fallen because capacity is growing even faster.

Key figures he cites:

• Between February and September 2025, China added ~160 million barrels to crude inventories—about 800,000 barrels per day for six months.

• This accounted for ~90% of the total global stock build over that period.

• As of September, its inventories were ~10% above 2020 peaks, while declared capacity utilization has dropped 15%.

China now holds both enormous stocks and even larger spare capacity, giving Beijing the ability to stabilize or destabilize prices at will. The direction of global oil prices, Halff argues, increasingly hinges on Chinese policy choices—whether Beijing continues soaking up excess crude or shifts to drawing down inventories.

Radical Transparency Has Changed Market Psychology

Historically, oil markets were opaque, especially regarding China’s inventories. Today, advances in satellite imagery, cargo tracking, and AI-based geospatial analysis have made formerly hidden information widely visible. This transparency has made the market far less reactive to geopolitical shocks:

The 2019 Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq facility is an early case: satellites quickly showed the damage and subsequent repairs. Prices jumped, but the spike was brief.

Recent Iran-Israel missile exchanges barely moved prices because imagery showed Iran’s domestic gas infrastructure — not export terminals — had been hit.

With near real-time intelligence, traders no longer fear worst-case scenarios or prolonged disruption. Volatility is subdued, and panic buying has disappeared. Supply reroutes quickly, and spare capacity feels more comfortable within a more efficient, data-aware system.

Trading and Policy Implications

Halff says the “fear premium” that once defined oil has largely evaporated. Traditional strategies—betting on sharp volatility after headline shocks—have become less profitable. Instead, traders thrive on:

• regional arbitrage

• structural, long-horizon positions

• logistics flexibility

• exploiting granular price differentials revealed by real-time data

Governments, however, are lagging. Energy-security frameworks built for an era of panic and scarcity no longer match market behavior. Sanctions still hurt targeted states but no longer spook the market: oil finds new routes and buyers quickly.

Strategic petroleum reserves may need redesign, as markets now stabilize themselves without large emergency releases. Meanwhile, Halff argues that new vulnerabilities—not oil—now dominate energy-security risk, particularly in electricity grids and renewables facing intermittency and integration challenges.

A More Transparent but Still Unpredictable Market

While the market is less fearful, Halff cautions it is not necessarily safer. New forms of disruption—extreme weather, tariffs, economic warfare, digital sabotage, rapid technological upheaval—are harder to model than traditional supply shocks.

Yet the biggest transformation is this: The oil market now operates in plain sight.

Transparency has reshaped how prices form, how risk is perceived, and how energy security must be managed.

Halff concludes that even without a “crystal ball,” the ability to see physical flows as they are — instantly and globally — has fundamentally rewritten the rules of oil.

— Trump DOE reorganization scraps clean-energy offices

Hydrocarbons, fusion, and critical minerals elevated as renewable units are dismantled

The Trump administration unveiled a sweeping overhaul of the Department of Energy that eliminates several clean-energy and renewable-power offices, replacing them with units focused on hydrocarbons, fusion, and critical minerals.

Under the reorganization announced Thursday, the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations — which under President Biden awarded billions for carbon-capture projects and hydrogen hubs — is being shuttered. The Energy Department had previously targeted the office for deep staffing cuts and the cancellation of major awards.

The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, a key funder of research into solar, wind, LEDs, and electric trucks, was also eliminated under the new structure. DOE says it has been renamed the Office of Critical Minerals and Energy Innovation, with staff reassigned from dissolved units including the Grid Deployment Office.

In their place, DOE has created a Hydrocarbons and Geothermal Energy Office, an Office of Fusion, and the newly titled Office of Energy Dominance Financing, formerly the Loan Programs Office.

In a statement, the agency said the realignment “reflects the Administration’s priorities of expanding American energy production, accelerating scientific and technological leadership, and ensuring the continued safety and readiness of the Nation’s nuclear weapons stockpile.”

TRADE POLICY

— CBO revises tariff windfall downward as new data cuts deficit impact

Updated projections show Trump-era tariff hikes reducing deficits by $3T — $1T less than earlier estimates — as exemptions expand and effective rates fluctuate

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has sharply lowered its estimate of how much President Donald Trump’s tariff increases will shrink the federal deficit over the next decade, citing new data, broadened exemptions, and shifting tariff structures.

In its latest projection (link), CBO Director Phillip Swagel writes that tariff hikes implemented between January 6 and November 15, 2025, would reduce primary deficits by $2.5 trillion from 2025–2035 if the current rates remain in place. Reduced borrowing would further trim interest outlays by $0.5 trillion, bringing the total estimated deficit reduction to $3.0 trillion.

That figure is $1 trillion lower than CBO’s August estimate, which the White House had heavily promoted as validation of the administration’s tariff strategy.

About two-thirds of the downward revision comes from updated data on trade flows, while the rest reflects changes in tariff policy. Although rates on some items rose this fall, the net effect has been a lower effective tariff rate than CBO assumed in August — largely due to new carveouts and expanded exemptions.

CBO now estimates that more than one-third of U.S. imports are untouched by the 2025 tariff actions. Exempted goods include aircraft and parts, pharmaceutical inputs, certain natural resources, consumer electronics, semiconductors, and a range of agricultural products.

The agency estimates that the effective tariff rate is now about 14 percentage points higher than the 2.5% baseline from 2024 trade flows — still a historic jump, but not as steep as earlier projections.

Swagel emphasizes the deep uncertainty around long-term projections. The Trump administration could further alter its tariff policies; new exemption mechanisms could sharply reduce revenues; and consumers and businesses may react differently than historical models predict. The Supreme Court is also weighing a challenge to some of the authorities Trump used to impose certain tariffs, an outcome that could reshape the revenue picture.

CBO notes it has limited empirical evidence for estimating the long-run effects of tariffs of this magnitude, given that the U.S. has not imposed comparable increases in decades.

The agency plans to update its projections if tariff policies — or their legal standing — change.

Tariffs Touch Everything — Yet Leave Few Clear FingerprintsA closer look at Bloomberg’s Trumponomics podcast reveals how President Trump’s sweeping levies permeate markets and headlines — while their true economic impact remains surprisingly diffuse In a new episode of Bloomberg’s Trumponomics, host Stephanie Flanders probes what she calls “the curious case of the everywhere, nowhere tariffs” — sweeping trade levies that have defined President Donald Trump’s second-term economic strategy but whose actual macroeconomic effects remain murky. Joined by Anna Wong, Bloomberg Economics’ chief U.S. economist, and Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Flanders unpacks who is paying the tariffs, where the pressure is building, and why the broad economy shows only faint traces of their impact so far. Consumers and Small Firms Are Bearing the Brunt According to Wong, American consumers are absorbing roughly one-third of tariff costs, while corporate America — especially small manufacturers and wholesalers — is absorbing most of the rest. Despite the breadth of the tariff programs, she estimates the overall inflation impact at about 0.3 percentage points. Thus far, the U.S. economy appears resilient: growth has held up, and many large companies are reporting record profits. But Wong warns that such headline numbers mask mounting stress further down the supply chain. Tech and Pharma Giants Are Largely Untouched Setser notes that large tech and pharmaceutical firms — the most dominant players in U.S. corporate earnings — have been “mostly insulated” from Trump’s tariff structure. Their continued profit strength, he argues, obscures the strain on smaller firms that rely on imported components. No Sign of a Manufacturing Revival Despite White House claims that tariffs are designed to “liberate” and revive U.S. industry, Wong and Setser say there is little evidence so far that Trump’s levies are reshoring manufacturing or narrowing the trade deficit. Instead, global supply chains are rerouting, with production shifting from China to Southeast Asia and Mexico — often permanently. Companies appear to be adapting rather than returning production home. Labor Market Softens as Uncertainty Rises Flanders notes that the U.S. labor market has begun to weaken, adding to questions about how long the economy can absorb tariff-driven pressure without broader fallout. For now, Trump’s tariffs are everywhere in political debate and nowhere in clear-cut economic data — a disconnect that may not last as supply chain reconfiguration, consumer costs, and labor-market softening accumulate. For another viewpoint, see the next item.

— Tariffs, productivity, and the price puzzle

A Breitbart analysis argues that the San Francisco Fed’s new tariff study is better explained by a structural shift toward higher U.S. productivity — not demand destruction

A recent Breitbart commentary examines a new research paper (link) from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco showing that, across 150 years of history, tariff hikes are followed by lower inflation and higher unemployment. The findings challenge the conventional belief that tariffs must raise consumer prices while protecting domestic jobs. The San Francisco Fed’s own interpretation centers on demand destruction — but Breitbart argues a very different story explains the results more convincingly and aligns more closely with President Trump’s current policy mix.

The Fed’s Puzzle: Lower Inflation, Higher Unemployment

The San Francisco Fed paper concludes that tariffs may shrink investment and tighten financial conditions by injecting uncertainty into economic policy. Investors pull back, asset prices soften, and businesses scale down spending — reducing demand. That, the Fed says, leads to fewer jobs and softer price pressure.

But Breitbart contends this demand-destruction model doesn’t fit what is happening on the ground under Trump, nor does it adequately explain a persistent historical pattern of tariffs leading to disinflation.

A Competing Theory: Tariffs Break the Low-Wage Equilibrium

Breitbart proposes a supply-side interpretation: that tariffs alter the structure of production rather than suppress aggregate demand.

For decades, low tariffs and open borders pushed U.S. firms into a low-wage, low-productivity competitive model. Domestic producers survived by suppressing wages, hiring more low-skill labor, and underinvesting in capital.

Broad-based tariffs disrupt this model. According to the analysis:

Foreign cost pressure weakens, reducing the wage-squeezing pressure created by global price competition.

Worker bargaining power rises because firms can no longer credibly threaten outsourcing.

Low-skill labor becomes relatively more expensive, nudging firms toward capital investment and better production methods.

Combined with Trump-era policies — lower taxes on capital, immediate expensing, tighter low-skill immigration, and pressure for lower interest rates — the economy is pushed toward higher productivity and more capital-intensive production.

Why Tariffs Can Lower Prices

The key metric in Breitbart’s argument is unit labor cost: wages divided by output per worker. While tariffs and tighter labor markets increase wages, investment simultaneously raises productivity. If productivity outpaces wage growth, unit labor costs fall.

Lower unit costs mean firms can produce each unit of output more cheaply, even as workers earn more. In competitive markets, those cost savings filter into prices. That, Breitbart argues, explains the San Francisco Fed’s finding of disinflation following tariff hikes: tariffs ultimately induce efficiency, not price spikes.

The Employment Transition

Breitbart acknowledges that unemployment often rises after tariff increases — but interprets it not as recessionary weakness but as a temporary transition away from low-productivity jobs. As firms modernize and reorganize, some low-skill positions disappear. Over time, higher-productivity industries absorb workers into better-paying roles.

Two Theories, One Data Pattern

Both the Fed’s demand-collapse model and Breitbart’s supply-shift model fit the same historical data pattern. But Breitbart argues the supply-side story:

better matches Trump’s policy package (tariffs + immigration limits + capital incentives + monetary easing),

and better reflects long-run improvements in real wages and productivity.

While the piece concedes not all tariffs are justified — and that some consumer goods, such as coffee and bananas, probably should not face duties — it argues the Fed’s findings vindicate a larger thesis: tariffs can be a tool not just for trade leverage, but for breaking a low-productivity trap and triggering a higher-wage, higher-productivity U.S. economy with cooler inflation.

CONGRESS

— Appropriators debate next minibus

House, Senate split on size and scope of next spending package

Appropriators are trying to maintain momentum on government funding bills, but the House and Senate remain far apart on the makeup of the next minibus.

House Republicans, led by Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.), prefer a smaller package they believe can move through their chamber before Christmas. Cole met with subcommittee chairs this week but declined to say which bills he wants to advance. He emphasized the House is “open” to Senate preferences and Democratic input but admitted lawmakers are still in a “holding pattern,” according to Labor-HHS-Education Chair Robert Aderholt (R-Ala.). Cole has encouraged House cardinals to begin discussions with Senate counterparts on individual bills while leaders negotiate the scope of the next package.

The Senate, meanwhile, is weighing a much larger five-bill minibus that would combine Defense, Labor-HHS-Education, Transportation-HUD, Commerce-Justice-Science, and Interior-Environment — a package that would cover most discretionary spending. Senior appropriator Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) said Republicans are working through “seven or eight objections” but insisted none are “insurmountable.”

One major sticking point appears close to resolution: Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) had previously blocked the Commerce-Justice-Science bill over the FBI headquarters site dispute, but he and Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) say they are now near agreement. “We’re very, very, very close,” Van Hollen said.

The key role of congressional leaders from both political parties, and especially appropriators from both chambers, is to fund the government. The inability of those key lawmakers to accomplish that task was the real reason why there was a shutdown of the government for a record 43 days.

— Reconciliation on the horizon? Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) is backing White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair’s push for a potential reconciliation bill early next year to address health-care issues — depending on the outcome of bipartisan discussions this winter. Republicans want more flexibility on Health Savings Accounts, while Democrats are pushing to extend expiring Affordable Care Act tax credits. Blair said reconciliation remains a fallback if bipartisan talks fail.

Capito, however, pushed back on the idea that reconciliation should include additional defense funding, stressing that passing the standalone Defense appropriations bill remains the “key” to boosting Pentagon resources.

— ACA/ObamaCare subsidy deadline looms

Millions could face higher premiums as lawmakers remain deadlocked

Unless Congress reaches an agreement to extend the enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA/ObamaCare) subsidies, premiums are expected to jump by roughly 30% on average — the largest increase since the ACA took effect more than a decade ago. However, Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) estimates that as many as 22 million Americans on ACA plans could see their monthly health insurance premiums jump 114% if the tax credits lapse, and many could lose coverage. One estimate suggests that about 4 million more Americans could become uninsured if the subsidies expire. Current ACA enrollment stands at nearly 24 million, almost double the level in 2015.

Lawmakers remain far apart on a path forward. Republicans want to overhaul the federal health care program but are short on both time and concrete proposals. Some who are open to a subsidy extension have pushed for tighter income thresholds and an end to zero-premium plans as conditions for their support. Democrats, meanwhile, are struggling to persuade Republicans to accept a long-term renewal of the Covid-era tax credits, in part because of their $350 billion price tag over 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

With time running out, both parties may ultimately settle on a short-term extension, possibly one or two years. Pressure to act will intensify as the year winds down: Open enrollment began Nov. 1 and runs through Jan. 15, 2026, with a Dec. 15 deadline for coverage starting Jan. 1. Even if Congress lands on a compromise, any late-breaking changes are almost certain to create confusion across the individual insurance markets.

Of note: According to KFF data for the federal marketplace (HealthCare.gov-run states), about 17% of enrollees are rural residents — which translates to roughly 4 million rural Americans covered via Marketplace plans.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— Utah GOP faces time crunch on appealing court-drawn map creating new Democratic seat

Utah House Speaker Mike Schultz (R) suggested Republicans likely do not have enough time to appeal the recently court-enacted map in time for the 2026 midterms. Schultz said the Legislature is considering all its options, but a Nov. 10 deadline to finalize a map may make an appeal difficult. The speaker accused District Judge Dianna Gibson of waiting until the final minute to issue a decision. The ruling created a new Democratic seat in the Salt Lake City area.

— Trump’s Texas gerrymander backfires as court rejects mid-decade map

Wall Street Journal editorial warns GOP may lose more seats than it hoped to gain after judges strike down Texas map as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander

A Wall Street Journal editorial (link) says President Trump’s push for Texas to redraw its congressional districts before the 2026 elections has backfired, after a federal court struck down the new map as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. What Trump saw as a fast-track to five additional Republican House seats has instead created legal turmoil, triggered a rebuke of the Justice Department’s guidance, and opened the door for Democrats to gain ground in redistricting battles nationwide.

The July 2025 Justice Department letter to Texas officials alleged that the state’s 2021 “coalition districts” were illegal under federal law — an assessment the court later described as factually and legally flawed.

The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board recounts how Trump pressured Texas Republicans to undertake a mid-decade remap, aiming to carve out as many as five new GOP-held congressional districts. But the attempt collapsed on Tuesday when a federal judicial panel ruled 2–1 that Texas’s revised districts were racially gerrymandered.

Judge Jeffrey Brown’s majority opinion sharply criticized the Justice Department’s 2025 letter — calling it rife with factual, legal, and typographical errors — and concluded the original 2021 map was permissible because it wasn’t drawn with race as a predominant factor. By contrast, the new 2025 map was unconstitutional precisely because Texas lawmakers made race central to their revisions after DOJ’s warning.

This sequence, the editorial argues, underscores how the Supreme Court’s Gingles doctrine has trapped states in a contradictory legal regime: too much race in mapmaking violates the Constitution, too little violates the Voting Rights Act.

The WSJ notes that Trump’s intervention has created political exposure for Republicans far beyond Texas. California voters just approved Gov. Gavin Newsom’s Prop. 50, which will award Democrats five more House seats. GOP hopes for gains in Ohio and North Carolina remain uncertain, and even Trump-friendly redrawn districts in South Texas could fall to Democrats in a blue-wave scenario.

The Board concludes that unless the Supreme Court resolves the racial gerrymandering dilemma in Louisiana v. Callais, Trump’s insistence on a redistricting “race to the bottom” may ultimately cost Republicans the House majority they sought to secure.

Comments: The two-judge panel issued their opinion without waiting for the dissent to be filed. Highly irregular.

NOMINATIONS

— CFTC nominee advances amid expanding agency mandate

Senate panel moves Michael Selig forward as prediction markets and crypto oversight loom large

The Senate Ag Committee on Thursday advanced Michael Selig’s nomination to lead the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), positioning him to take charge as the agency faces a rapidly expanding portfolio. Once a quiet regulator focused on swaps and derivatives, the CFTC is increasingly at the center of policy debates over fast-growing prediction markets, sports wagering, and efforts to give the agency broader authority over the crypto sector.

The committee voted 12-11 to clear Selig and before senators left town for Thanksgiving. Democrats remained united against the nominee. Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) stood in for Ranking Member Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and said that the Minnesota Democrat “looks forward to working with Mr. Selig.” But Klobuchar stopped short of supporting Selig, Welch said, because the Trump administration did not provide a commitment “to nominate a full complement of bipartisan commissioners.” Democrats have been pushing for minority nominees on the CFTC.

The Senate vote on Selig’s nomination won’t come any sooner than post-Thanksgiving. Senate Republican leadership is planning to put forward a bundle of nominees the Monday after the Senate returns in December, which Selig could conceivably be included.

Selig has been a key player in President Donald Trump’s second-term crypto agenda, serving as chief counsel to the SEC’s crypto task force and advising SEC Chairman Paul Atkins. He is expected to continue coordinating crypto rulemaking between the SEC and CFTC, particularly as the CFTC’s five-member commission remains vacant aside from Acting Chair Caroline Pham.

His financial disclosures show past work for prominent crypto clients — such as eToro and Paradigm — and personal sales of Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana. If confirmed, Selig will also confront intensifying legal fights over prediction-market platforms like Kalshi and Crypto.com. Casino operators, tribal governments, and state gambling regulators argue these exchanges are using federal commodities authority to intrude on state-regulated gambling turf. A federal judge has recently signaled sympathy with Nevada regulators, and Kalshi faces similar challenges in more than a dozen states.

Selig is Trump’s second nominee for the role this year after the withdrawal of Brian Quintenz. That move followed objections from Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss, who argued Quintenz’s role on Kalshi’s board created untenable conflicts. Gemini is preparing to launch its own prediction-market products, according to recent Bloomberg reporting.

FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY

— New dairy options on the lunch line

Senate vote sets stage for major shift in school milk rules

The near-monopoly dairy has long held over school beverage choices may finally be cracking. The Senate voted unanimously Thursday to approve the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act, opening the door for schools to serve whole milk again — and, for the first time, to offer non-dairy milks without requiring a doctor’s note.

The change reflects growing pressure on schools to align menus with sustainability concerns, cultural preferences, and evolving dietary needs. Many students today face a stark choice at lunch: milk or nothing.

Still, even if the bill becomes law, immediate transformation is unlikely. Non-dairy milks remain costly, and suppliers may struggle to provide the small cartons schools rely on. The bill also stops short of mandating any menu changes. Districts and milk processors will need time to assess demand.

Animal-welfare advocates praised the bill, noting that nearly one-third of school milk cartons are thrown out unopened. Wayne Pacelle, president of Animal Wellness Action and the Center for a Humane Economy, said the plant-based provisions represent “a long-overdue acknowledgment that kids need choices, farmers and processors producing many types of nutritious fluid beverages want fair markets and animals deserve better than to labor in extreme ways only to see their milk tossed in the trash.”

A win for dairy — even with new competition. While plant-based milks grab headlines, the legislation also marks a meaningful win for the dairy sector. Whole milk — removed from school meals in 2012 under Obama-era nutrition reforms aimed at reducing saturated fat and combating childhood obesity — would return alongside existing nonfat, 1%, and flavored offerings.

Dairy farmers have long argued that forcing kids to drink lower-fat milk soured them on dairy altogether, pushing them toward soda and other alternatives. Supporters of the bill call the whole-milk provision “common sense,” a chance to “honor” dairy farmers and, in their view, “a watershed moment for children’s health.”

But some nutrition experts urge caution, noting that whole milk’s higher calorie and fat content matters.

Next step: House Ag Chair GT Thompson (R-Pa.) is scouting for a legislative vehicle to advance the House version, which cleared committee in February.

TRANSPORTATION/LOGISTICS

— U.S./China pause on port fees and tariffs aims to ease costs and boost ag trade

One-year suspension expected to lower shipping expenses and spur major Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and grains

The United States and China recently suspended reciprocal port fees and a tranche of reciprocal tariffs for one year, beginning Nov. 10, as part of a new bilateral trade deal. Prior to the announcement, stakeholders told the U.S. Trade Representative that pausing port fees would help reduce shipping costs and ease transit disruptions. The World Shipping Council said the suspension would “contribute to lower costs for U.S. farmers and manufacturers who rely on ocean liner transportation to move $335 billion in American exports each year.”

The agreement also includes significant Chinese agricultural purchase commitments. The Trump administration says Beijing pledged to buy at least 12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans during the final two months of 2025, and no less than 25 MMT annually in 2026, 2027, and 2028. China further agreed to suspend certain retaliatory tariffs, including duties on wheat, corn, sorghum, and other agricultural goods. If these provisions lead China to increase its purchases of U.S. grain, the deal is expected to bolster grain transportation demand and support U.S. export flows.

WEATHER

— NOAA issues 2025–2026 U.S. winter weather outlook

La Niña returns, tilting the nation toward a classic North–South weather split

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has released its official 2025–2026 U.S. winter outlook (link), confirming that the equatorial Pacific has shifted into La Niña, a cool-water phase that historically drives strong regional climate patterns. The update appears in the NRCS Water and Climate Update for Nov. 20, 2025.

A map of the united states AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Key Takeaways from NOAA’s Outlook

La Niña now in place. NOAA confirms the Pacific has transitioned into a La Niña phase, which typically lasts through winter.

La Niña winters often bring:

• Cooler and wetter conditions across the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, Upper Midwest.

• Warmer and drier conditions across the Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, and Southeast.

Regional winter outlook. Based on NOAA’s probability maps included in the report:

Precipitation

• Above normal precipitation favored in the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, Great Lakes, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

• Below normal precipitation likely for California, the Southwest, the Southern Plains, and the Gulf Coast — a classic La Niña precipitation pattern.

Temperature

• Colder-than-normal temperatures most probable along the Northern Tier, stretching from Washington and Montana into the Upper Midwest.

• Warmer-than-normal temperatures are likely for the Southwest, Southern Plains, Gulf States, and Florida, consistent with La Niña-driven subtropical jet weakening.

Storm variability still expected. NOAA emphasizes that while the overall climate signal is clear, individual storm systems may depart from seasonal trends — meaning:

• Occasional cold outbreaks may still reach the South.

• The North could see intermittent warm spells.

• The jet stream may fluctuate sharply, creating periods of heavy snow in traditionally favored regions.

Drought implications. The seasonal drought outlook shows:

• Improvement likely across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies due to wetter La Niña conditions.

• Persistence or expansion of drought expected across California, the Southwest, the Southern Plains, and parts of the Southeast, aligning with NOAA’s drier forecasts for southern states.

Bottom Line: NOAA’s 2025–2026 outlook points to a textbook La Niña winter, strengthening the divide between:

• A colder, wetter North, and

• A warmer, drier South.

This pattern will influence snowpack, water supply outlooks, drought evolution, agriculture, and energy demand throughout the winter months.

— Agricultural Implications of the 2025–2026 NOAA Winter Outlook
La Niña Winter to Reshape Moisture, Drought, and Crop Conditions Across U.S. Farm Regions

NOAA’s winter forecast — driven by a newly formed La Niña — carries significant consequences for winter wheat, livestock operators, forage availability, hydrology, specialty crops, and input logistics across all major producing regions. Below is a region-by-region and sector-by-sector breakdown.

Northern Tier & Upper Midwest (MT, ND, SD, MN, WI)

Colder, Wetter Outlook → Beneficial for Moisture Recharge

NOAA projects above-normal precipitation and cooler temperatures for the northern tier.
Snowpack rebuilding in the Northern Rockies and Upper Midwest will:
- Improve soil moisture recharge for spring planting.
- Enhance runoff potential for irrigation-dependent systems (sugar beets, potatoes, specialty crops).
Winter wheat stands in the Northern Plains may benefit from better snow cover, reducing winterkill.

Risks:

Extended cold spells could stress overwintering livestock and raise feed requirements.
Higher snowfall increases risk of spring flooding along the Red River Basin.

Pacific Northwest (WA, OR, ID)

Wetter Pattern Strengthens Water Supplies

NOAA’s precipitation maps (page 17) signal markedly above-normal precipitation, consistent with La Niña.
Snowpack recovery in the Cascades and Northern Rockies supports:
- Irrigation allocations for 2026.
- Tree fruit and hop production stability.
- Reduced wildfire risk entering next summer.

Concern:

Saturated soils may complicate late-winter fieldwork and orchard management.

California & the Southwest (CA, AZ, NM, NV, UT)

Drier-Than-Normal Conditions → Renewed Water Stress

NOAA projects below-normal precipitation for CA and the Southwest—significant given ongoing drought expansion in the document’s drought maps (pages 8–11).
Agricultural impacts:
- Lower reservoir inflows reduce 2026 surface water allocations, pressuring permanent crops (almonds, citrus, grapes).
- Forage scarcity likely for cow-calf producers in CA and AZ.
- Higher reliance on groundwater pumping, raising costs for dairies and vegetable growers.

Wildfire risk:

A drier winter increases early-season fire dangers near agricultural corridors, especially in the Central Valley foothills.

Central & Southern Plains (KS, OK, TX)

Warm, Dry La Niña → Winter Wheat at Risk

NOAA shows below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures, especially across TX–OK.
Implications for winter wheat:
- Increased moisture stress during emergence and tillering.
- Higher probability of winterkill due to limited snow cover.
- Reduced yield potential unless late-season moisture arrives.

Livestock impacts:

Poor forage and deteriorating pasture conditions will:
- Increase hay and feed costs.
- Raise culling rates in cow-calf operations.
- Tighten feeder cattle supplies heading into summer 2026.

Southeast & Gulf Coast (LA, MS, AL, GA, FL, SC)

Warmer, Drier Winter → Drought Intensification

NOAA highlights below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures, typical of La Niña.
Agricultural risks:
- Winter grazing in the Southeast will suffer, raising feed costs for poultry and cattle operations.
- Drought threatens citrus, especially in Florida, where groves are sensitive to warm, dry winters.
- Peanut and cotton producers may face poor soil moisture recharge heading into spring 2026.

Opportunity:

Reduced freeze risk may benefit vegetable production during early 2026.

Corn Belt (IA, IL, IN, MO, OH)

Mixed but Generally Favorable Soil Moisture

Most of the Corn Belt sits in a zone with near-normal to slightly above-normal precipitation (per CPC maps).
Impacts:
- Adequate soil moisture recharge supports 2026 planting.
- Cooler northern temperatures help preserve soil structure during winter.

Concerns:

Warmer southern portions (MO, southern IL) may experience increased overwintering of pests such as rootworm and aphids.

Mountain West (CO, WY, UT, MT Reservoir Systems)

Snowpack Rebound Expected in the Northern Rockies

NOAA’s maps show strong probabilities of above-normal snow from MT into northern WY.
Benefits:
- Improved river system flows feeding the Platte, Missouri, and Columbia basins.
- Better irrigation water reliability for hay, sugar beets, barley, and potatoes.

Risk:

Colorado and Utah fall into a mixed zone, with some southern dryness—a concern for fruit orchards and hay producers.

Livestock & Forage Summary

Northern Plains & Rockies: Improved forage conditions by spring 2026 due to snowpack recovery.
Southern Plains & Southeast: Significant forage stress; producers face:
- Higher supplemental feeding costs.
- Potential herd reductions.
- Increased hay movement from northern states.

Input, Logistics & Pest Management

Warmer Southern Winter → Pest Pressure

La Niña-driven warmth in the South may:
- Increase overwinter survival of bollworms, rootworm beetles, aphids, and armyworms.
- Elevate spring disease risk in early planted crops.

Cold Northern Winter → Supply Chain Interruptions

Increased snowfall in the northern tier could disrupt:
- Fertilizer and seed distribution.
- Rail and barge flows, crucial when winter wheat fertilization begins.

Hydrology & Reservoir Outlook

Improving water storage prospects for the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, Upper Midwest.
Worsening hydrologic stress for California, Southwest, Southern Plains, aligning with NOAA’s seasonal drought outlook (page 17).

— NWS outlook: Additional heavy rain and flash flooding threat for southern

California, western Arizona and southern Nevada today and Saturday… …Record warmth to continue along the Gulf Coast, across the lower Mississippi Valley and into the Southeast… …Arctic air to remain absent from the Lower 48 over the next few days.

A map of the united states with weather forecast AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Ag Intel

White House Continues to Ease Food Tariffs to Cut Grocery Costs

— Agricultural Implications of the 2025–2026 NOAA Winter Outlook
La Niña Winter to Reshape Moisture, Drought, and Crop Conditions Across U.S. Farm Regions

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Ag Intel

White House Continues to Ease Food Tariffs to Cut Grocery Costs

— Agricultural Implications of the 2025–2026 NOAA Winter OutlookLa Niña Winter to Reshape Moisture, Drought, and Crop Conditions Across U.S. Farm Regions

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— Agricultural Implications of the 2025–2026 NOAA Winter Outlook
La Niña Winter to Reshape Moisture, Drought, and Crop Conditions Across U.S. Farm Regions