New Case of Screwworm in Northern Mexico

Reason for farmer aid delay: Scheduling with President Trump for announcement and still discussing program features 

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Link: North Dakota Judge Strikes Down CO₂ Storage Law as Unconstitutional
Link: Mexico Tightens Cattle Movement as Screwworm Threat Delays
         U.S. Border Reopening
Link: Bessent: U.S. Outlook Brightens as China Stays on Track with 
          Soybean Purchase Commitments
Link: Record-Setting 2025 Corn Crop Enters Market with Strong Quality
Link: SDS Re-Emerges as Major Threat in Soybeans This Year
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov. 28
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov 28

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Today’s Updates:

TOP STORIES
— Texas warns of rising screwworm risk after new case in Northern Mexico
— Mexico tightens screwworm controls as cross-border stakes rise
— Sheinbaum plans first U.S. trip as president for World Cup draw
— Trump’s tariff benchmark takes hold
— Bessent: U.S. outlook brightens as China stays on track with soybean commitments
— USTR Greer: India trade deal remains on track
— Top 5 risks to watch in 2026
— FT: Bond markets ring alarm over Kevin Hassett Fed bid
— Why Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair isn’t automatically bullish
— Bloomberg: Trump weighs expanding Bessent’s power base amid Fed chair decision

FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today
— Equities yesterday
— Walmart closed above a $900 billion market value for the first time
— Gavin Newsom not shy about criticizing the administration’s moves
— Census Bureau updates rescheduling of reports

AG MARKETS
— USDA daily export sales
— Initial China soybean purchases from U.S. showing in weekly USDA data
— Canada’s 2025 harvest delivers record wheat and canola output
— Western Argentina faces renewed crop stress
— China’s pork price slide deepens
— Agriculture markets yesterday

FARM AID PLAN
— Farmer aid package still in flux as White House targets $10–$12 billion range

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Thursday: Oil prices hold steady as Ukraine strike hits Russian pipeline 
     but leaves flows uninterrupted
— Wednesday: Oil prices inch higher as U.S./Russia talks stall on Ukraine
— Global diesel markets tighten as geopolitics drive crack spreads higher
— Trump moves to roll back Biden-era fuel mandates

TRADE POLICY
— USMCA review kicks off with sharp divides on how far revisions should go
— Farm leaders tout USMCA gains but warn of border bottlenecks, market imbalances 
— Ag exporters push for stability after a year of policy whiplash

CONGRESS
— Senate GOP awaits Democrats’ move on expiring ObamaCare enhanced subsidies

POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Buttigieg backs Angie Craig in high-stakes Minnesota Senate primary

FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY
— San Francisco targets Big Food in landmark public-health lawsuit
— Proposed SNAP benefit reductions: What’s changing and why it matters

TRANSPORTATION/LOGISTICS
— Black Sea war insurance soars as vessel attacks escalate

WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Active winter weather pattern continues…

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Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Dec. 4, 2025

UP FRONT— Texas warns of rising screwworm risk after new case in Northern Mexico: Texas officials are urging producers to intensify surveillance after a new screwworm case in northern Mexico was traced to cattle moved from the south.— Mexico tightens screwworm controls as cross-border stakes rise: Mexico is imposing tougher reporting and movement rules on livestock to contain screwworm outbreaks that have repeatedly disrupted U.S./Mexico cattle trade.— Sheinbaum plans first U.S. trip as president for World Cup draw: President Sheinbaum will travel to Washington for the 2026 World Cup draw, with a possible brief encounter with President Trump as she touts domestic labor reforms.— Trump’s tariff benchmark takes hold: Treasury Secretary Bessent says Trump has reset global norms by making 15%–20% tariffs the “new normal,” while warning of one-time price shocks.— Bessent: U.S. outlook brightens as China stays on track with soybean commitments: Bessent projects a solid 2026 economy and says China is on pace to complete a 12 MMT U.S. soybean purchase pledge by late February.— USTR Greer: India trade deal remains on track: Greer reports U.S./India trade talks are progressing, helped by India’s retreat from Russian oil, but offers no timing or sector specifics.— Top 5 risks to watch in 2026: Torsten Sløk flags re-accelerating U.S. growth, a global industrial build-out, politicized Fed cuts, an AI-driven equity bust, and surging bond supply as key 2026 risks.— Equities today: Global stocks are broadly higher on expectations of a U.S. rate cut next week after softer employment data.— Equities yesterday: Major U.S. indices closed higher, led by the Dow, as markets extended their rally on growing confidence in Fed easing.— Walmart closed above a $900 billion market value for the first time: Walmart’s latest stock gain lifted it past a $900 billion market cap, making it the 12th U.S. company to cross that threshold.— Gavin Newsom…“What the hell happened to free enterprise?”: Newsom blasted the administration’s moves to take equity stakes and “golden shares” in key firms, questioning its commitment to free markets.— Census Bureau updates rescheduling of reports: Census has reset several key economic releases delayed by the shutdown, compressing trade, inventory and retail-sales data into mid-December.— FT: Bond markets ring alarm over Kevin Hassett Fed bid: Investors warn Treasury that a Hassett-led Fed could undercut inflation fighting with politically driven cuts, risking a bond sell-off.— Why Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair isn’t automatically bullish: The Sevens Report argues a perceived dovish Hassett Fed could spook bond markets, revive 1970s-style inflation fears, and blunt equity gains.— Bloomberg: Trump weighs expanding Bessent’s power base amid Fed chair decision: Trump allies are discussing naming Bessent to run both Treasury and the NEC if Hassett goes to the Fed, further centralizing economic power.— USDA daily export sales: USDA reported sizable new corn sales to Colombia and Mexico for 2025/26.— Initial China soybean purchases from U.S. showing in weekly USDA data: Weekly data show the first tranche of China’s new-season U.S. soybean buying, alongside modest pork and cotton activity.— Canada’s 2025 harvest delivers record wheat and canola output: Statistics Canada pegs wheat and canola at record highs on strong Prairie yields, while eastern drought trims corn and soybean output.— Western Argentina faces renewed crop stress: Patchy rains and another looming dry spell threaten to intensify moisture stress on western Argentina corn and soy.— China’s pork price slide deepens: Bloomberg reports wholesale pork prices are down 18% this year as weak consumer confidence and lingering oversupply overwhelm herd-cut efforts.— Agriculture markets yesterday: Grains and cotton slipped while cattle and hog futures firmed, reflecting softer crop sentiment and steady livestock demand.— Farmer aid package still in flux as White House targets $10–$12 billion range: The long-promised aid plan keeps shifting around a $10–$12 billion price tag, with timing tied to Trump’s desire to headline the rollout.— Thursday: Oil prices hold steady as Ukraine strike hits Russian pipeline but leaves flows uninterrupted: Crude traded flat as a Ukrainian attack on the Druzhba pipeline failed to disrupt shipments and inventories rose.— Wednesday: Oil prices inch higher as U.S./Russia talks stall on Ukraine: Oil gained modestly after U.S./Russia talks produced no breakthrough and data showed a surprise U.S. stock build.— Global diesel markets tighten as geopolitics drive crack spreads higher: EIA says sanctions, refinery outages and war-damaged Russian capacity have pushed diesel crack spreads to 2025 highs and lifted U.S. prices.— Trump moves to roll back Biden-era fuel mandates: The administration proposes sharply weaker 2031 fuel-economy targets and ending credit trading, arguing it will cut car costs but drawing climate backlash.— USMCA review kicks off with sharp divides on how far revisions should go: Day one of USTR’s hearing exposed a split between experts favoring targeted tweaks and advocates pushing sweeping worker- and digital-rule overhauls, even questioning USMCA’s renewal.— Ag exporters push for stability after a year of policy whiplash: Exporters say 2025 tariffs, port fees, and transport rules were “self-inflicted wounds” and urge a 2026 agenda focused on keeping cargo moving.— Senate GOP awaits Democrats’ move on expiring ObamaCare enhanced subsidies: Republicans are delaying their plan on ACA subsidies until Democrats unveil theirs, raising the risk of year-end premium spikes.— Buttigieg backs Angie Craig in high-stakes Minnesota Senate primary: Pete Buttigieg’s endorsement of Rep. Angie Craig sharpens a Minnesota Senate primary clash between moderate and progressive Democrats.— San Francisco targets Big Food in landmark public-health lawsuit: The city is suing major food companies, alleging deceptive marketing of ultraprocessed foods fueled a costly chronic-disease crisis.— Proposed SNAP benefit reductions: What’s changing and why it matters: Possible SNAP cuts would trim a major pillar of U.S. food demand, pressuring meat and grocery sales while reinforcing trade-down to cheaper products.— Black Sea war insurance soars as vessel attacks escalate: War-risk premiums for Black Sea shipping have jumped about 250% as Ukrainian strikes on Russia-linked vessels widen the danger zone.— NWS outlook: A very active pattern brings snow to the Great Lakes, Northeast and Northwest, heavy Gulf Coast rain with some wintry mix inland, and record-challenging cold into the Midwest and Northeast. TOP STORIES  — Texas warns of rising screwworm risk after new case in Northern MexicoMiller urges vigilance as detection appears tied to livestock moved from southern Mexico Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller on Wednesday highlighted a New World screwworm (NWS) detection in Montemorelos, Nuevo León, about 120 miles south of the Texas border. USDA confirmed the case in a bovine transported from Veracruz — the second detection at the same feedlot since October, both linked to cattle moved from southern Mexico. The APHIS NWS site indicates there has been three cases of NWS on Nuevo Leon with one case still active. The other two cases are listed as being confirmed Sept. 9 and Oct. 5. APHIS currently shows five active cases in Mexico. Miller stressed that Texas remains screwworm-free but said the northernmost active case in Mexico underscores the need for vigilance. “We have beaten it before with resolve and science, and we’ll do it again, but Texas must stay vigilant,” he said. He urged Texas producers to watch for suspicious wounds or maggot activity in livestock, wildlife, and pets and to report any concerns immediately. Early detection, tight movement controls, and fly-suppression efforts remain key to keeping the pest from crossing the border. — Mexico tightens screwworm controls as cross-border stakes riseNew emergency rules aim to curb outbreaks that have repeatedly shut the U.S. border Mexico has rolled out tougher national measures to combat the cattle screwworm, escalating its animal-health emergency response amid rising pressure to prevent new outbreaks that could again disrupt livestock trade with the United States. Link to report on this topic filed Wednesday afternoon.  The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (SADER) strengthened the National Animal Health Emergency Response System (DINESA), issuing expanded requirements for mandatory case reporting, tighter hygiene protocols, and stricter controls on animal movement. Officials say collaboration from ranchers, veterinarians, and the public will be critical to containing the pest, which affects cattle, other livestock, wildlife, and even humans. The screwworm’s resurgence just over a year ago has already closed the U.S./Mexico livestock border three times — most recently on July 9 after a detection in Veracruz. In response, both countries signed a binational work plan in August covering inspection, trapping, transport verification, and sterile-fly releases to suppress the pest. The new DINESA rules impose obligations on state agencies and on all owners, certifiers, veterinarians, laboratories, importers, and transporters of susceptible animals. Movement of livestock now requires compliance with reinforced legal protocols and, in many cases, special permits. Livestock workers must report suspected cases to SENASICA and present the Animal Health Movement Certificate when transporting cattle, buffalo, bison, sheep, goats, swine, and poultry. The stakes are substantial: Mexico supplies more than one million head of livestock to the United States each year — roughly 60% of U.S. live cattle imports and about 3% of the domestic herd — making uninterrupted cross-border flows vital to both economies.  Is the Spread Linked to Cartels?What Is True vs. What Is a Myth – Screwworm ClaimsClaimRealityCartels are planting screwworm cases in northern Mexico/U.S. to block border opening.??? Answer depends on who you ask. While most say there is no evidence of a coordinated cartel “planting” campaign for political influence, some Mexican cattle producers say differently. Illegal cattle trafficking contributes to screwworm spread northward.✅ Supported. Outbreak geography mirrors illegal livestock routes.Screwworm’s northward movement raises risk to U.S. cattle industry.✅ True. The U.S. has halted certain livestock imports and is increasing surveillance and sterile-fly production.Cases in Mexico or travelers are part of a cartel-driven border strategy.❌ No evidence. Cases result from natural infestation patterns and livestock movement. Bottom Line: The screwworm’s northward spread is a biological issue linked to animal movements and a breached containment barrier, say most contacts. But others continue to note a cartel plan to “plant” infestations for geopolitical leverage. While illegal cattle trafficking contributes to its movement, the narrative of a deliberate cartel plot to make border control harder is hard to verify by official reports or expert consensus, other than reports from some Mexican cattle producers.   — Sheinbaum plans first U.S. trip as president for World Cup drawMexico’s leader signals possible brief meeting with President Trump as labor reforms take center stage at home Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum used her Wednesday mañanera to highlight major domestic labor moves — and to confirm her first U.S. trip as president, set for this Friday in Washington, D.C., for the 2026 FIFA World Cup draw. Labor Minister Marath Bolaños announced a 13% increase to Mexico’s minimum wage in 2026, alongside a proposal to reduce the standard workweek to 40 hours by 2030 — measures warmly received by workers following the administration’s push for improved labor conditions. Sheinbaum then turned to international affairs, revealing that the U.S. Department of State notified Mexico that President Donald Trump “would be happy to welcome us” at Friday’s World Cup event, hosted at the Kennedy Center. Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney are also expected to attend. Sheinbaum told reporters she will offer additional details Thursday but emphasized the event is “very short.” She also said she spoke with FIFA President Gianni Infantino, noting that the gathering provides an opportunity for the three North American leaders to signal that regional cooperation — and the USMCA trade pact — are moving forward ahead of the agreement’s 2026 review. Asked whether she would hold a separate bilateral meeting with Trump, Sheinbaum said nothing had been finalized, and if it happened, it would be “very brief.” The two leaders have not yet met in person but have spoken frequently by phone. Any bilateral touchpoint would likely focus on trade and security, with Mexico continuing to lobby against Trump administration tariffs imposed this year — and seeking better conditions with its largest trading partner. — Trump’s tariff benchmark takes holdBessent says 15%–20% duties are now the “new normal” in global trade debates Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Donald Trump has effectively “normalized” the idea of 15% to 20% tariffs, arguing that Trump’s aggressive approach reset global expectations around what constitutes acceptable baseline duties. Speaking at the New York Times DealBook Summit, Bessent said Trump was “right on tariffs” and credited the president’s higher risk tolerance for giving the administration significant negotiating leverage. On tariffs, he admitted, there could be a downside. “You could get a one-time price adjustment,” he said. Bessent noted that Trump “wanted to go big” on tariffs from the start — a posture that, in his view, broadened the political and economic space for the U.S. to pursue tougher trade terms. The strategy, he said, has now shaped both domestic and international conversations, where double-digit tariffs are treated less as extraordinary measures and more as part of the operating framework for U.S. trade policy going forward. (Bessent acknowledged that he and Trump were initially far apart on tariff strategy. “My evolution went to, ‘Well, I think we should do smaller incremental tariffs.’ And the president went in with a maximalist position,” he said, adding that Trump’s approach gave them leverage in trade negotiations… “I’ve had an open mind, and that I’ve evolved on this, and that the president’s been right.”) Of note: Bessent said the Trump administration can replicate the sweeping levies if the Supreme Court rules the president exceeded his authority to enact the duties. — Bessent: U.S. outlook brightens as China stays on track with soybean commitmentsTreasury chief projects strong 2026 economy and confirms Beijing will complete 12 MMT soybean purchase pledge by late February U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaking Wednesday, Bessent said the administration’s policy mix — said China is on track to fulfill its commitment to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, part of a broader trade agreement designed to reset commercial ties after years of volatility. He added that Beijing’s remaining purchases would be completed by the end of February 2026, marking the first time in several years that Chinese buying patterns aligned closely with U.S. expectations. Link for more. Of note: Bessent appeared to extend an earlier deadline for Beijing’s purchases. The White House said last month that China had agreed to buy the shipments “during the last two months of 2025… I will say that China is on track to keep every part of the deal, every part of the deal,” Bessent said during an interview at a New York Times event. Asked about the pace of soy purchases and the time left before the end of the year, he clarified that the target was “the end of the season, so I think that’ll be Feb. 28.” (This new deadline confused market participants.) The marketing year for U.S. soybeans runs from September to August. China is on an Oct./Sept. marketing year. “They are in a perfect cadence to complete that goal,” Bessent said. “If I look at the loadings, then their purchase by their central government is well into the correct cadence.” Traders expect Chinese state-owned importers, including Cofco, to step up buying of U.S. soybeans in coming weeks, in line with the deal. The timing and scale of shipments remain uncertain. — USTR Greer: India trade deal remains on trackTalks progressing, though timeline and sector details — including agriculture — remain unclear Negotiations on a U.S./India trade deal are “still going quite well,” U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer told Politico, signaling that both sides remain committed despite lingering uncertainties. Greer noted that India’s shift away from purchasing Russian oil has helped ease a key point of tension, saying the move improves the atmosphere for potential “tariff modification at some point.” But Greer gave no estimate for when a final package might be completed, and the published interview excerpts did not address agriculture or other major negotiating areas. For now, the trajectory appears positive — but with no firm details yet on what a final agreement would include or when it might materialize. — Top 5 risks to watch in 2026Sløk flags political, macro, and market threats that could reshape the year ahead Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Sløk outlined five major risks that could define the 2026 economic landscape, warning that both policy and market dynamics could shift sharply in the coming year. Sløk, writing in The Daily Spark, said the fading impact of the trade-war shock and the stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill could unexpectedly re-accelerate the U.S. economy in 2026. The danger: inflation could begin rising again from an already elevated level. He also highlighted a global industrial renaissance, with countries pouring capital into homeshoring advanced manufacturing, infrastructure, energy, defense, and supply-chain builds — a trend that could further fuel global growth but also strain resources and price stability. A third risk centers on the new Federal Reserve Chair, who Sløk warns could cut interest rates “purely for political reasons,” raising the prospect of a policy mistake at a delicate moment for inflation. Sløk said another potential shock would be an AI bubble burst, triggering a sharp correction in the Magnificent Seven stocks and slowing both capital spending and high-end consumer demand. Finally, he cautioned that a surge in fixed-income supply — driven by widening government deficits and heavy issuance from hyperscalers — may put significant upward pressure on interest rates and credit spreads in 2026. Together, Sløk writes, these forces underscore a year ahead “with meaningful upside and downside risks,” and one where policymakers and markets will have little room for error.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today: Global markets climbed on expectations of a U.S. interest-rate cut next week after economic data showed employment is slowing. Wall Street futures were mixed after major North American markets closed up yesterday. Traders are now pricing in a roughly 89% likelihood of a rate cut, up from under 70% a month ago, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. Michelle Bowman, the Fed’s top banking supervisor, speaks at 12 p.m. on bank supervision and regulation. In Asia, Japan +2.3%. Hong Kong +0.7%. China -0.1%. India +0.2%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.2%. Paris +0.4%. Frankfurt +0.8%.

— Equities yesterday:

Equity Index	Closing Price  Dec. 3	Point Difference  from Dec. 2	% Difference  from Dec. 2
Dow	47,882.90	+408.44	+0.86%
Nasdaq	23,454.09	+40.42	+0.17%
S&P 500	6,849.72	+20.35	+0.30%

— Walmart closed above a $900 billion market value for the first time. The retailer’s stock was up 1.8%, a gain that pushed it above the market-cap milestone and made it the 12th U.S. company to surpass it.

— Gavin Newsom, the California governor, was not shy about criticizing the administration’s moves to take equity stakes in the chipmaker Intel and MP Materials, an operator of rare earth mines, and a “golden share” in U.S. Steel. “What the hell happened to free enterprise?” Newsom said.

— Census Bureau updates rescheduling of reports. The Census Bureau has rescheduled additional reports that were affected by the government shutdown. The agency will now issue inventory data for September today, with International Trade in Goods and Services data for September set for release Dec. 11. That day will also see the release of Wholesale Inventories updates for September. October Retail Sales are now scheduled to be released Dec. 16, with Durable Goods Orders for October set for Dec. 23.

— FT: Bond markets ring alarm over Kevin Hassett Fed bid

Investors privately warn Treasury that a Hassett-led Fed could undercut the central bank’s inflation fight with aggressive rate cuts — risking a bond sell-off 

Bond-market participants have raised serious concerns to the U.S. Department of the Treasury about the possibility of Kevin Hassett becoming the next chair of the Federal Reserve, warning that a shift toward politically driven rate cuts could undermine confidence in the Fed and destabilize Treasuries, according to reporting by the Financial Times. 

Investors reportedly told Treasury officials that Hassett — a close adviser to Donald Trump — might push for aggressive interest rate cuts to align with the president’s pro-growth agenda, even if inflation remains elevated. Such a move could threaten the independence of the Fed, undermining long-standing confidence that monetary policy is set by technocrats rather than political considerations. 

Some investors fear that a “Hassett Fed” could trigger a sell-off in bonds as yields adjust to the higher inflation risk and uncertainty around long-term price stability. 

Market participants reportedly see other candidates — such as Rick Rieder of BlackRock and established Fed-insider Christopher Waller — as more “market-friendly” and less politically exposed. 

But broad unease remains: critics warn that a more dovish, politically aligned Fed could erode the credibility of U.S. monetary policy — a foundation of trust that underpins global bond markets. 

Market impacts:

• Bond yields and volatility: If markets begin to fear that rate cuts come before inflation genuinely abates, yields on Treasuries could rise, hurting bond-heavy portfolios and increasing funding costs.

• Fed independence: A shift toward political influence over interest-rate decisions could erode confidence in the central bank — making future inflation-fighting efforts more difficult.

• Market stability: A misstep could trigger broader financial turbulence, especially if investors reassess assumptions about U.S. debts, inflation, and currency strength.

— Why Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair isn’t automatically bullish

Sevens Report warns that a perceived dovish pivot could unsettle bond markets — and revive 1970s-style inflation fears

A growing share of investors has treated the near-certain nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next chair of the Federal Reserve as a bullish development — one that could accelerate rate-cut expectations and extend the market’s “dovish-pivot rally.” But the Sevens Report cautions that such optimism may be misplaced, arguing that a Hassett-led Fed could introduce new risks that outweigh the benefits. 

According to the report, the recent equity rebound has been powered by the belief that “a more dovish Fed” is coming in 2026, with President Trump all but confirming he intends to nominate Hassett. Markets have reacted accordingly: expectations for a December rate cut surged from under 50% to nearly 100% in just two weeks. Yet the bond market is sending a different message. “Nothing in markets is free,” the Sevens Report writes, noting that while stocks cheered a more dovish Fed chair, bond markets did not.” 

The 10-year Treasury yield has firmed in recent sessions, partly on global factors but also on investor unease that a too-dovish Hassett could allow inflation to re-accelerate. The report explicitly draws a parallel to former Chair Arthur Burns, whose episodic tightening and easing in the 1970s fed a cycle of persistent inflation and economic stagnation.

Treasury traders, it notes, are already wary of “poor decision making, political influence, [or] misread data” that could compromise the Fed’s independence. If that credibility erodes — even slightly — bond yields could rise enough to blunt, or even overwhelm, the bullish effects of lower policy rates. 

Quote of note: “If the Fed’s independence is viewed as compromised… yields will rise, something that could more than offset any fed funds rate cuts,” the Sevens Report cautions. 

The analysis stresses that Hassett has not demonstrated a willingness to sacrifice Federal Reserve independence over his career — a point that should reassure skeptics. Still, markets may not give him the benefit of the doubt at the outset. For equity investors, that may matter more than whether fed funds end 2026 at 3.625% or 2.875%.

As the report concludes, the central issue for 2026 isn’t the number of cuts—but whether investors trust the Fed to maintain inflation discipline. On that front, a Hassett-led Fed will face early scrutiny, and any wobble could reset the market narrative quickly.

— Bloomberg: Trump weighs expanding Bessent’s power base amid Fed chair decision

Treasury chief eyed to simultaneously lead National Economic Council as Trump considers elevating Kevin Hassett to the Federal Reserve

Donald Trump’s aides and allies are actively discussing whether Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent should also take over as director of the National Economic Council (NEC) — a move that would significantly consolidate his influence over the administration’s economic agenda, Bloomberg reports.

The potential reshuffle hinges on whether Trump selects current NEC Director Kevin Hassett as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, a decision the president has teased in recent days. Bloomberg noted that people familiar with the conversations — who spoke anonymously to describe internal deliberations — said naming Bessent to lead the NEC would make him the central operative shaping Trump’s economic policy, controlling both Treasury and the White House’s economic policy hub.

A White House official cautioned that any personnel changes remain speculative until Trump formally announces them. The Treasury Department declined to comment.

A consolidation of power. If selected, Bessent would gain a West Wing office and direct oversight over tax, health care, energy, and broader economic strategy — even as he already holds concurrent roles, including serving as the acting IRS commissioner. The arrangement would echo Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s unusually wide portfolio, which includes chairing the National Security Council and previously serving as acting USAID administrator.

Such dual-hatted roles have become more common in Trump’s second term, though it is unclear whether the president intends to continue expanding them.

NEC’s shifting role. While the NEC traditionally coordinates economic policymaking across the federal government, its role has narrowed under Trump’s second term. Hassett has largely focused on publicly promoting the administration’s economic narrative rather than developing major policy initiatives inside the White House.

Trump has said he has already chosen his preferred Fed candidate from a list of about ten contenders but will wait until early 2026 to announce the decision. Besides Hassett, finalists have included Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Governor Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder.

What comes next: A nomination for Fed chair would require Senate confirmation, but the NEC post does not. Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed for being slow to cut rates and for pursuing costly renovations at its headquarters, raising the stakes for his choice.

If Bessent assumes the NEC role, it would further centralize the administration’s economic policymaking and potentially give Treasury unprecedented sway over both fiscal and White House economic priorities — a hallmark of Trump’s personnel style, where multiple roles are often stacked on a handful of trusted advisers.

AG MARKETS

— USDA daily export sales:

• 100,800 MT corn to Colombia and 392,500 MT corn to Mexico for 2025/26

— Initial China soybean purchases from U.S. showing in weekly USDA data. USDA Export Sales data for the week ended Oct. 30 for 2025/26 included net sales of 232,000 metric tons of soybeans to China, 100,000 metric tons of which were included in a daily sales announcement from USDA that covered daily sales that took place during the government shutdown. The only activity reported for cotton during the period were exports of 4,655 running bales. Net sales of 709 metric tons of pork were also reported for 2025 delivery. Outstanding sales of U.S. pork to China were at 14,800 metric tons.

— Canada’s 2025 harvest delivers record wheat and canola output

Statistics Canada reports strong Prairie yields despite early-season drought; Eastern crops hit by heat and dryness

Canadian farmers posted a strong 2025 harvest, with record wheat and canola production driven by remarkable yield gains across the Prairies, according to Statistics Canada’s November Field Crop Survey. While Western Canada benefited from timely late-season rains, producers in Eastern Canada struggled with below-average precipitation and heat, pushing down corn and soybean yields.

Prairie Weather Rebound Fuels Record Production

Western Canada’s growing season began with dry conditions, but well-timed rainfall late in the summer turned the outlook around. Harvest proceeded near normal pace and wrapped up by mid-October. The improved moisture and milder finish pushed yields for many Prairie crops to record or near-record levels.

Eastern Canada, by contrast, faced below-average rainfall and summer heat, contributing to yield declines in corn, soybeans, and other major crops.

Wheat: New All-Time High at 40 Million Tonnes

• Canada’s total wheat production surged 11.2% year over year to a record 40.0 million tonnes.

• Spring wheat: Up 10.3% to 29.3 million tonnes, driven by a 12.9% jump in yields to 58.8 bu/acre.

• Durum wheat: Up 11.8% to 7.1 million tonnes on both higher area and yields.

• Winter wheat: Up 17.0% to 3.6 million tonnes.

Provincial highlights:

• Saskatchewan: Despite a 4.3% drop in harvested area, yields rose 10.9%, boosting output 6.1%.

• Alberta: Yields surged 18.8%, pushing production up 23.6% to 12.3 million tonnes.

• Manitoba: Wheat output rose slightly (+2.2%) with strong yields and increased harvested area.

Canola: Another Record as Yields Surge

National canola production climbed 13.3% to a record 21.8 million tonnes, surpassing the previous high set in 2017. Yields averaged 44.7 bu/acre, with all Prairie provinces reporting exceptional results.

• Saskatchewan: Yields up 15.9%, production up 16.7% to 12.2 million tonnes.

• Alberta: Yields up 16.1% despite a small reduction in area; production rose 13.4%.

• Manitoba: Area fell nearly 9%, but yields improved 11.4%, nudging production up 1.6%.

Corn for Grain: Production Drops on Eastern Drought

Corn output slipped 3.1% to 14.9 million tonnes, with yields down 3.9% to 162.2 bu/acre. Eastern dryness drove the declines.

• Ontario: Production down 1.4% as yields fell to 175.6 bu/acre.

• Quebec: Production down 18.3%; yields sank 13%.

• Manitoba: A bright spot — yields rose 5.5% and area expanded, lifting production 22.5%.

Soybeans: Yields Fall, Production Down 10%

National soybean production fell 10.2% to 6.8 million tonnes, almost entirely due to yield losses from hot, dry Eastern conditions.

• Ontario: Production fell 18.2% on both lower area and yields.

• Quebec: Down 15.6% with yields tumbling 19.2%.

• Manitoba: Production rose 12.3% as expanded acres offset mildly lower yields.

Barley and Oats: Big Yield Gains Lift Output

Barley: Production up 19.4% to 9.7 million tonnes; yields jumped 25.6%.

Oats: Production up 16.7% to 3.9 million tonnes with increases in both area and yields.

Survey and release notes: The November Field Crop Survey collected data from 27,200 farms between October 3 and November 6, providing final 2025 production estimates (subject to two-year revision). Spring 2026 seeding intentions will be released March 5, 2026.

Crop	2024 Production (thousand tonnes)	2025 Production (thousand tonnes)	% Change 2024 to 2025
Total wheat	35939	39955	11.2%
Durum wheat	6380	7135	11.8%
Spring wheat	26515	29259	10.3%
Winter wheat	3043	3561	17.0%
Barley	8144	9725	19.4%
Canary seed	185	235	26.8%
Canola	19239	21804	13.3%
Chick peas	287	482	67.9%
Corn for grain	15345	14867	-3.1%
Dry beans	424	438	3.3%
Dry field peas	2997	3934	31.3%
Fall rye	416	672	61.3%
Flaxseed	258	454	76.2%
Lentils	2431	3363	38.3%
Mustard seed	192	140	-27.3%
Oats	3358	3920	16.7%
Soybeans	7568	6793	-10.2%
Sunflower seed	51	69	36.4%

— Western Argentina faces renewed crop stress

Patchy rainfall this week may leave key growing areas exposed ahead of another dry spell

Crop stress is expected to increase across parts of western Argentina as irregular rainfall patterns threaten to bypass some of the country’s most vulnerable growing regions. While showers are forecast from Sunday through Tuesday, early outlooks suggest that significant precipitation may not reach all areas — particularly in western Córdoba, La Pampa, San Luis, and western Buenos Aires.

Meteorologists warn that these gaps in rainfall could heighten moisture deficits just as crops move into sensitive stages of development. A return to drier weather is projected for Dec. 10–11, potentially tightening soil moisture even further.

A second round of rain advertised for Dec. 12–15 will be closely watched. If these systems track too far east or weaken upon arrival, agronomists say it could compound existing stress on corn and soybean fields. Producers in western zones — already dealing with uneven emergence and thin moisture reserves — could face renewed pressure on yield potential if the mid-month precipitation fails to deliver.

While eastern and central zones may fare better with more consistent rainfall, western regions remain at heightened risk heading into the second half of December. Agronomists and traders alike will monitor model consensus in the coming days for signs of meaningful relief.

— China’s pork price slide deepens

Bloomberg: Weak consumer confidence overshadows herd cuts and seasonal demand

Chinese pork prices continue to tumble, signaling deep consumer caution despite government herd-reduction efforts and the onset of what is normally a peak demand season, Bloomberg reports.

Wholesale pork prices have fallen 18% so far in 2025, hitting their lowest level in more than three years. Typically, consumption of China’s most important protein climbs as temperatures drop and households prepare for winter gatherings and Lunar New Year. But this year, the slide underscores a fragile mood in Chinese households.

A U.S./China trade truce has brought some stability, yet China’s property slump and weak labor market are still suppressing household spending. With the 5% GDP growth target in reach, Beijing is expected to refrain from major stimulus this year — leaving room for potential support in early 2026, according to Bloomberg Economics.

Despite a government push to shrink the breeding herd, including pressure on major hog producers to cut sow numbers, oversupply remains entrenched. Sow numbers were down just 2.1% year-over-year at the end of October, too small a change to lift prices.

Commodity consultancy Mysteel reports that:

• Restaurants and retailers aren’t stocking up as usual for winter.

• Pork normally sold fresh is being frozen and stockpiled due to slower sales.

• Major producers plan to slaughter more hogs in December, worsening the supply glut.

• Prices likely continue falling through year-end, with relief unlikely before Chinese New Year.

“Pork consumption is closely tied to catering, and at least 20% of previous spending has been held back,” said Pan Chenjun of Rabobank. She expects prices to rise in late 2026 as farmers deepen production cuts — but warns that consumption may stay soft, requiring producers to rethink strategy.

Overall, China’s pork market is trapped between ample supply, subdued confidence, and an economy still struggling to reignite household spending — with no quick turnaround in sight.

— Agriculture markets yesterday: 

Commodity	Contract  Month	Closing Price  Dec. 3	Difference vs.  Dec. 2
Corn	March	4.33 1/2	-6 1/2 cents
Soybeans	January	11.15 3/4	-9 cents
Soybean Meal	March	316.10	-0.50
Soybean Oil	March	52.19	-0.99
Wheat SRW	March	5.38 1/4	-2 3/4 cents
Wheat HRW	March	5.29 1/2	-3 1/2 cents
Spring Wheat	March	5.76 1/4	-4 1/2 cents
Cotton	March	64.46	-11 points
Live Cattle	February	221.90	+1.10
Feeder Cattle	January	331.85	+1.975
Lean Hogs	February	81.00	+0.825

FARM AID PLAN

— Farmer aid package still in flux as White House Targets $10–$12 billion range

Announcement timing remains uncertain as Trump likely part of rollout

The shape of the long-awaited farmer aid package continues to shift, with most administration and congressional signals now pointing to a cost “north of $10 billion,” concentrated in the $10–$12 billion range. Several farm-state lawmakers say internal USDA drafts have been revised multiple times in recent days as the White House weighs how to combine disaster relief, market-loss assistance, and tariff-related support into a single package.

One complication: President Donald Trump wants to personally participate in the rollout, according to multiple congressional contacts familiar with the planning. That has made the timing unusually volatile, with aides warning that the announcement could “move again” depending on Trump’s travel, Cabinet schedule, and other political considerations.

Producers are watching closely. After months of delays, repeated signals of “this week” or “next week,” and shifting descriptions of how the aid will be structured, frustration has grown across farm country. Many producers say the uncertainty is compounding financial stress caused by 2024–25 weather losses, rising input costs, and tariff-related market disruptions. 

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, who has repeatedly promised imminent details, has said the goal is to deliver “bridge” assistance until new trade agreements and improved market access can reduce dependence on federal checks. But for now, producers say they need clarity on eligibility, payment caps, timelines, and how the various disaster and market-loss programs will be bundled.

Meanwhile, Senate Ag Appropriations Subcommittee Chair John Hoeven (R-N.D.) said he expects Rollins to roll out new farmer assistance “within the next week or so.” Hoeven’s comments came in response to concerns from Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), who questioned whether USDA has sufficient resources to provide the aid.

More updates expected as the White House finalizes the rollout schedule.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Thursday: Oil prices hold steady as Ukraine strike hits russian pipeline but leaves flows uninterrupted

Market shrugs off latest attack amid stalled peace talks and rising U.S. inventories

Oil prices were stable Thursday as traders weighed Ukraine’s latest strike on Russian energy infrastructure against confirmation that crude flows through the targeted pipeline continued uninterrupted. Stalled U.S./Russia peace negotiations and a surprise build in U.S. inventories also shaped sentiment.

Brent crude edged up 24 cents, 0.4%, to $62.91, while West Texas Intermediate rose 33 cents, or 0.6%, to $59.28.

Ukraine hit the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia’s central Tambov region — the fifth such attack on the line supplying Hungary and Slovakia — but both the pipeline operator and Hungarian energy company MOL said shipments were moving normally. The incident underscores what consultancy Kpler described as a “more sustained and strategically coordinated” Ukrainian drone campaign against Russian refining assets. Kpler estimates Russian refining throughput from September to November fell 335,000 barrels per day year over year, with gasoline output taking the biggest hit.

Prices also drew some support from renewed pessimism on peace prospects. President Donald Trump’s envoys left recent talks with the Kremlin without any breakthroughs, prompting Trump to say it was unclear what comes next. Markets had previously priced in the possibility that a peace deal could unwind sanctions and return Russian barrels to an already oversupplied market.

Separately, U.S. crude and fuel inventories rose last week as refiners ramped up activity, the Energy Information Administration reported. Crude stocks increased by 574,000 barrels to 427.5 million — contrasting with expectations for a draw of roughly 821,000 barrels.

In a further sign of softening fundamentals, Fitch Ratings cut its oil price assumptions for 2025–2027, citing oversupply and production growth expected to exceed demand.

— Wednesday: Oil prices inch higher as U.S./Russia talks stall on Ukraine

Lack of breakthrough keeps sanctions intact; inventory build highlights oversupply concerns

Oil prices ticked up Wednesday after high-stakes negotiations between U.S. envoys and Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to produce a path toward ending the war in Ukraine, dimming hopes that sanctions on Moscow’s energy sector might soon be lifted. Brent crude rose $0.22 to $62.67, while West Texas Intermediate added $0.31 to close at $58.95, partially recovering from Tuesday’s declines.

Fresh data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration underscored persistent oversupply pressures. Crude inventories grew by 574,000 barrels last week despite expectations for a draw, while gasoline stocks surged by more than 4.5 million barrels and distillate supplies rose over 2 million barrels. The figures signaled softer U.S. demand heading into year-end and reinforced market views that global supply remains more than sufficient.

Geopolitical uncertainty continued to dominate trading sentiment. A five-hour meeting between Putin and senior U.S. officials ended without progress, ensuring that sanctions on major Russian producers — including Rosneft and Lukoil — remain in place. Traders remain focused on whether any future peace framework could eventually free up restricted Russian barrels, though Moscow dismissed current European proposals as “unacceptable.”

Meanwhile, recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian export terminals and tankers along the Black Sea highlighted the risk of further supply disruptions. Putin warned that Russia could retaliate against vessels from countries supporting Ukraine, adding new uncertainty to regional shipping.

Despite Wednesday’s modest uptick, analysts noted that the oil market remains acutely sensitive to developments in both peace negotiations and supply fundamentals, with sentiment swinging quickly on any shift in geopolitical signals.

— Global diesel markets tighten as geopolitics drive crack spreads higher

EIA: Refinery outages, sanctions, and strong export demand push diesel margins to highest levels of 2025

Global diesel prices have climbed sharply since late October, with diesel crack spreads hitting their highest levels of the year as geopolitical disruptions collide with constrained refinery output, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Crack spreads — a key indicator of the profitability of refining crude oil into diesel — surged above $1 per gallon in New York Harbor, the U.S. Gulf Coast, and the Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp (ARA) hub for the first time in more than a year. The EIA notes the jump reflects simultaneously tight supplies and strong international demand.

Sanctions and conflict reshape diesel flows. A series of escalating sanctions by the European Union is pressuring global diesel markets:

• October 2025: EU tightens restrictions on Rosneft, Lukoil, and Gazprom Neft.

• July 2025: EU bans imports of refined products made from Russian crude.

• Late 2022–early 2023: EU bans direct imports of Russian crude oil and diesel.

The latest sanctions not only curb Russian product flows directly but also target refineries in Türkiye and India that have been processing discounted Russian crude and re-exporting diesel to Europe. This has reduced the availability of lower-priced supply into EU markets.

Compounding the squeeze, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and petroleum export facilities have curtailed Russia’s own exports of diesel and other products — forcing dependent buyers to seek supply elsewhere at higher prices.

Refinery outages tighten the Atlantic Basin. Beyond Russia, several major supply hits have intensified the tightening:

• Kuwait’s Al Zour refinery, a key supplier since coming online in 2023, has been offline since late October.

• A heavy Middle East refinery maintenance season has further reduced regional processing rates.

• The Dangote refinery in Nigeria is facing unclear timelines for maintenance progress, adding pressure to Atlantic Basin availability.

These outages have reduced global refining capacity at precisely the moment when sanctions and conflict have reshaped trade flows.

U.S. refiners step in — and export more. Tight international supplies have increased demand for product from operational refineries — including those along the U.S. Gulf Coast, which anchor U.S. petroleum product exports.

The EIA reports that:

• U.S. gasoline exports are at their highest levels of 2025.

• U.S. distillate exports (including diesel) are also elevated in November compared to the 2020–24 five-year average.

Of note: Because U.S. refiners can sell into both domestic and global markets, higher international prices have lifted U.S. diesel prices as well.

Bottom Line: The convergence of sanctions, war-related disruptions, refinery outages, and strong export demand has tightened diesel supplies worldwide. As a result, diesel crack spreads and end-user prices remain elevated heading into winter — and global markets are likely to feel the pressure as long as geopolitical risks and refining constraints persist.

— Trump moves to roll back Biden-era fuel mandates

Plan would slash 2031 mileage target and curb EV push, framing shift as consumer cost relief

President Donald Trump on Wednesday outlined his administration’s plan to dismantle the Biden-era fuel-efficiency standards that had been designed to accelerate electric-vehicle adoption, proposing a sharp reduction in required mileage targets and the end of a key credit-trading program used by automakers to comply.

The Transportation Department proposal — which must still undergo formal rulemaking and could be finalized next year — would lower the 2031 model-year corporate average fuel economy requirement from roughly 50 miles per gallon under President Joe Biden to about 34.5 mpg. The plan would also abolish automaker credit trading starting in 2028, a long-standing tool used to manage compliance across diverse vehicle fleets.

Trump is announcing the rollback alongside Detroit auto executives at an Oval Office event, casting the move as part of a broader affordability push at a time when new vehicle prices have surpassed $50,000 on average. The administration says the changes would save Americans $109 billion over five years, lowering the average cost of a new vehicle by about $1,000. But enforcing the stricter standards would have saved Americans $23 billion in fuel costs, said Public Citizen’s Will Anderson.

Automakers and the oil industry have pressed for relief from what they argued were unrealistic technology demands that effectively nudged companies away from gasoline models. Critics, however, warn the rollback will mean less-efficient vehicles, higher lifetime fuel costs for drivers, and weakened progress on emissions. 

Environmental groups note that Biden-era standards were expected to cut gasoline use by nearly 70 billion gallons through 2050, with consumer fuel savings of over $23 billion.

Trump’s broader reversal of Biden-era clean-transportation rules has also included lifting penalties for failing to meet mileage standards, eliminating EV tax credits, and proposing to repeal EPA tailpipe-emission limits. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy argues the Biden rules were “artificially high” and inconsistent with Trump’s policy of promoting domestic oil, natural gas and biofuels.

Although gasoline prices have fallen to $2.99 per gallon, the administration’s claim of savings faces skepticism from environmentalists, who say the rollback primarily benefits oil companies. “This isn’t about saving money for drivers or automakers — it’s about boosting oil companies’ profits,” said Kathy Harris of the Natural Resources Defense Council.

Under federal law, fuel-economy standards must reflect the “maximum feasible” level — a threshold environmental groups say Trump’s plan fails to meet. Dan Becker of the Center for Biological Diversity said the move “kills” progress in a favor to “Big Oil, Big Auto and OPEC golf buddies,” underscoring the political and legal fight likely ahead.

TRADE POLICY

— USMCA review kicks off with sharp divides on how far revisions should go

Analysts urge targeted updates while lawmakers and advocates call for sweeping changes in worker protections and digital rules

Trade researchers, lawmakers, and civil society advocates opened day one of the U.S. Trade Representative’s three-day USMCA review hearing with sharply contrasting visions for the pact’s future. Analysts and think-tank experts largely praised the agreement’s performance and recommended focused updates, while progressive lawmakers and advocacy groups pressed for far more ambitious reforms — and warned the administration not to prioritize corporate interests in the coming renegotiation.

Rep. Josh Riley (D-NY) launched the morning with an emotional critique of NAFTA, USMCA’s predecessor, calling it an “absolute disaster” for manufacturing towns like the one where he grew up. Urging officials to “care less” about the bottom lines of multinational corporations, Riley echoed calls from civil society groups—including Rethink Trade — for a worker-centered overhaul during next July’s formal review.

The review will determine whether the three countries extend USMCA for 16 years or allow it to begin expiring a decade from now. President Trump, who renegotiated the pact in his first term but has since imposed tariffs that critics say violate it, signaled again Wednesday that renewal is far from guaranteed: “It expires in about a year,” he said. “And we’ll either let it expire or we’ll maybe work out another deal with Mexico and Canada.”

Meanwhile, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Politico he echoed those possibilities. “I mean, that’s always a scenario,” Greer said. “The president’s view is he only wants deals that are a good deal. The reason why we built a review period into USMCA was in case we needed to revise it, review it or exit it.” Greer also noted another possibility would be to reach individual trade deals with Mexico and Canada. “Our relationship with the Canadian economy is totally different than our relationship with the Mexican economy,” Greer said. “It actually doesn’t make a ton of economic sense why we would marry those three together.”

Rep. Chris Smith (R-N.J.), unable to attend due to a scheduling conflict, submitted testimony focused on a NAFTA-era investor dispute involving a New Jersey family whose $7 million award he says fell far short of proven losses. Smith urged USTR to revisit the case and pressed Canada to settle “as a way to demonstrate a commitment to greater fairness.”

Analysts from universities and policy institutes largely urged continuity — with modernization. Rice University’s David Gantz said the Trump renegotiation was “wildly successful,” arguing the next review should follow a similar “first, do no harm” approach. Ed Gresser of the Progressive Policy Institute made the case for preserving stability, warning that a “fragmented region” would make shared economic goals harder to achieve. Five years in, he said, USMCA is “working reasonably well,” noting that persistent U.S. trade deficits stem from domestic fiscal policy, not the agreement itself.

Other experts encouraged targeted reforms.

• Economic security coordination: CNAS’s Emily Kilcrease urged embedding export-control and investment-screening cooperation into the pact, backed by a new trilateral committee rather than formal dispute settlement.

• Customs transparency: Silverado Policy Accelerator CEO Sarah Stewart advocated a joint monitoring system to spot import surges earlier and proposed data collection on steel and aluminum emissions to curb environmental “arbitrage.”

• Forced-labor screening: CSIS fellow Diego Marroquín Bitar recommended a “North American product passport” to track inputs across supply chains.

But civil society groups said such modest adjustments fall far short of what’s needed. Public Citizen’s Melinda St. Louis called USMCA “a big win for Big Tech,” urging removal of provisions limiting government access to source code and enabling cross-border data flows. Others, including the Citizens Trade Campaign, argued that rules favoring major pharmaceutical and digital firms should also be stripped out.

Advocates pressed for stronger labor standards, with Rethink Trade’s Lori Wallach citing low Mexican wages — “40% lower in manufacturing than in China” — and calling for sectoral minimum wages backed by unions across the region. St. Louis also urged a “fully transparent process,” including release of draft negotiating texts.

Farm Leaders Tout USMCA Gains but Warn of Border Bottlenecks, Market Imbalances in Review Hearing Ag groups praise stability under USMCA yet urge fixes on rail rates, inspections, fruit-and-vegetable surges, dairy quotas, and unequal treatment of U.S. animal-protein exports. Agricultural leaders offered a broad but nuanced defense of the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement during this week’s review hearing, emphasizing that the pact remains essential to North American farm trade while calling for urgent fixes to border frictions, regulatory inconsistencies, and product-specific market pressures. Ed Bower, president of the National Corn Growers Association, said Mexico’s retreat from its proposed ban on genetically modified corn proved that the pact’s dispute-resolution system “works.” Still, he and National Grain and Feed Association CEO Mike Seyfert pressed for negotiations on rail freight rates and border inspections that are slowing the movement of grain and other goods. Dave Walton, secretary of the American Soybean Association, called USMCA indispensable, noting it has brought “stability, predictability, and modernized trade rules.” Although he did not reference China’s recent cutback in U.S. soybean imports tied to President Trump’s tariffs, Walton warned that “failure to renew USMCA would be catastrophic” for growers facing one of the toughest markets in a generation. Alejandra Castillo, president and CEO of the North American Export Grain Association, urged negotiators to “resist” reopening the core text of the pact but recommended targeted changes to strengthen regulatory consistency at the border.  Stu Swanson of the U.S. Grains and BioProducts Council highlighted ethanol’s potential to provide Mexico cleaner gasoline, while Samuel Crowell of the American Seed Trade Association cautioned against revisiting the sanitary and phytosanitary chapter but said the seed sector needs stronger intellectual-property protections given the 15-year timeline to develop new varieties. Fruit and Vegetable Sectors Split Over Market Access Disagreements were sharper among fresh-produce groups.  Western Growers’ Dennis Nuxoll supported continued tariff-free access across the three countries but sought “improvements,” including reforms to Mexico’s child-labor laws.  In contrast, California Avocado Commission President Ken Melban called for tariff-rate quotas, arguing Mexican avocados dominate the U.S. market and threaten the domestic industry. Florida Fruit and Vegetable Association President Michael Joyner similarly pressed for quotas to counter damaging import surges from Mexico across multiple crops. Dairy Groups Target Canada’s TRQs; Some Call for COOL Becky Rasdall Vargas of the International Dairy Foods Association said USMCA is “critical to U.S. dairy’s success,” with Canada and Mexico accounting for 44% of dairy exports, or $3.6 billion annually. But she said Canada’s tariff-rate quota administration and pricing practices continue to limit U.S. access and must be corrected. Others argued the United States should change course.  Karen Hansen-Kuhn of the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy urged the reinstatement of mandatory country-of-origin labeling (COOL) for meat and warned against pressuring Canada to abandon its supply-management system, which she said keeps markets balanced and would not be solved by increased U.S. exports.  Justin Tupper of the U.S. Cattlemen’s Association also supported mandatory COOL. Rendered-Product Sector Flags VAT Barrier in Mexico Dana Johnson Downing of the North American Renderers Association said USMCA’s benefits “can only be fully realized if every trading partner adheres to the letter and spirit of its commitments.” She criticized Mexico’s continued application of a 16% value-added tax on U.S.-origin rendered animal-protein meals and other feed inputs — despite market-access rules guaranteeing duty-free entry — while Mexican-produced equivalents are exempt. “This VAT operates as a de facto tariff,” she said, undermining USMCA and hurting both U.S. exporters and price-sensitive Mexican feed buyers.

Bottom Line: Day one illustrated the core dilemma facing USTR: analysts want stability and incremental modernization, while lawmakers and advocates are demanding deeper structural changes to tilt the pact toward workers and consumers. The disagreements underscore the political and economic stakes heading into next year’s high-profile review — and the possibility that even the future of the agreement itself may be up for debate.

— Ag exporters push for stability after a year of policy whiplash

Industry leaders warn that tariff shocks, port-fee missteps, and rigid transport rules left U.S. agriculture at a competitive disadvantage in 2025 — and say keeping cargo moving must define the 2026 agenda 

U.S. agricultural exporters are eager to put 2025 behind them after a year marked by unpredictable tariffs, geopolitical flare-ups and maritime policy experiments that repeatedly disrupted cargo flows and weakened the global competitiveness of American farm and chemical products.

Speaking to the Traffic Club of New York on Nov. 25, Agriculture Transportation Coalition (AgTC) Executive Director Peter Friedmann said the U.S. must confront a series of “self-inflicted wounds” that throttled export volumes and left transport networks idle. Tariffs, he emphasized, struck at the foundation of the supply chain: “If the cargo isn’t coming because of trade battles or tariffs … it doesn’t matter how nice your trucking fleet is,” he said. “There’s got to be the cargo.”

Tariffs accelerated market shifts away from the U.S. Friedmann stressed that trading partners have ample alternatives to U.S. production. California almonds, once reliably bound for India, are now being sourced competitively from Australia, whose trade agreement with India gives growers preferred access.

A similar story unfolded in soybeans. China’s retaliatory boycott during the 2025 trade war pause revealed deeper structural changes that will outlast any truce. China now buys far more from Brazil — where rapid deforestation continues to expand production — and has also scaled up domestic output. “The number one consumer of soybeans in the world is China,” Friedmann noted.

Legal uncertainty over tariffs looms large. The industry is bracing for a Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Trump’s tariffs — a decision that could trigger tens of billions of dollars in refunds. Friedmann warned the outcome could be chaotic for exporters, calling it “a bit of a cluster.”

Port fees on Chinese vessels: a bipartisan misstep. Friedmann blasted the now-suspended U.S. port fees on Chinese-owned or Chinese-built ships — a policy first drafted under Biden and implemented under Trump — calling it a “stupid, brain-dead idea.” The intent was to counter Beijing’s shipbuilding dominance and encourage U.S. yards, but the U.S. does not build modern container ships above 3,400 TEUs. With no viable American-built alternatives, ag exporters faced dramatically higher costs overnight. Pressure from exporters, importers, carriers and truckers won a crucial exemption for empty ships and ultimately a one-year suspension of the fees set to begin Oct. 14. But Friedmann cautioned: “Suspended” means “still on the books.” Without action, the fees return next October.

Truck weight limits, rail mergers and port technology: more pressure points. Friedmann repeated long-standing industry complaints about outdated federal truck weight limits — 80,000 lbs. in the U.S. vs. more than 105,000 lbs. in Canada and Europe. The disparity forces U.S. exporters to rely on twice as many trucks to move the same amount of cargo, driving up costs and congestion.

He also warned that the proposed Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger — which would create the first freight-only transcontinental railroad — could reroute cargo flows and upend drayage patterns in ways shippers may not expect.

Another barrier: labor unions resisting automation at ports. “If we ban automation … we do it knowing that there’s going to be something else we have to do to make up for that loss of efficiency,” Friedmann said.

Independent-contractor rules and trucking constraints intensify cost pressures. Friedmann highlighted a growing state-level push — beginning in California — to reclassify independent contractors as employees. He warned that potential cost increases of 20–25% would ultimately hit exporters: “Who’s going to pay for that? The cargo.”

Other regulatory pressures include:

• DOT consideration of eliminating state-issued non-domiciled CDLs

• Potential restrictions on non-English-speaking drivers

• Increasing freight visibility expectations amid soaring cargo-theft risks

Of note: A single tampered seal, he added, can prompt a consignee to reject an entire load of perishable or agricultural goods.

Bottom Line for 2026: keep cargo moving. Friedmann said the AgTC’s number one priority remains ensuring that goods can move freely — without tariff shocks, policy reversals or transport constraints. After a turbulent 2025, exporters hope for a year focused on operational continuity rather than political crossfire. “Our trading partners will always find other places to buy what we produce,” Friedmann warned. “If we want the cargo, we have to stop creating our own obstacles.”

CONGRESS

— Senate GOP awaits Democrats’ move on expiring ObamaCare enhanced subsidies

Thune says Republicans won’t finalize their plan until Democrats reveal theirs, raising the risk of premium hikes for 20+ million Americans

Senate Republicans are holding off on presenting their own plan to address expiring Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare) premium subsidies until Democrats unveil theirs — a strategic delay that threatens to compress an already tight end-of-year legislative calendar and heighten the risk of premium spikes for millions of enrollees.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said Wednesday that GOP leaders won’t lock in their approach until they see exactly what Democrats put forward. While he has guaranteed Democrats a floor vote on their proposal by the end of next week, Republicans remain divided internally over how to structure their counterplan.

Quote of note: “My guess is, unless there’s a serious attempt to work through some of the obstacles that currently present impediments to getting to a bipartisan deal, the votes, however they happen next week, perhaps don’t get to 60,” Thune said. “But we won’t know that until we get there.”

The enhanced ACA tax credits are scheduled to expire at year’s end unless Congress acts, potentially driving up costs for more than 20 million Americans in an election year when health policy is expected to be politically pivotal. With Congress set to recess after the third week of December, lawmakers have only a narrow window to find a bipartisan path capable of passing both chambers.

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who chairs the Senate committee handling health policy, urged colleagues to focus on what can “get done three weeks from now,” promoting his health savings account-focused proposal as a potential solution.

Senate Democrats plan to offer a clean three-year extension of the ObamaCare enhanced premium tax credits for next week’s planned health care vote on the Senate floor, Punchbowl News first reported, citing multiple sources familiar with the matter. The proposal aligns Senate Democrats with House Democrats, whose leaders have put forward a clean three-year extension for a discharge petition.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) blasted the GOP for what he called internal paralysis, warning that Americans will “pay the price when premiums go up.”

In the House, Republicans are also waiting on Senate movement while navigating their own divisions. Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Colo.) and a bipartisan group are pushing a two-year extension paired with income caps and anti-fraud measures. Moderates like Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) say they are working with senators on a plan that could win the 60 Senate votes and 218 House votes needed for passage.

House conservatives, however, caution that broad Republican support is unlikely, especially if the Senate produces a narrow or partisan bill. Energy and Commerce Committee member Rep. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) said she expects few House GOP votes when a package reaches her chamber.

Bottom Line: With no consensus yet — and Democrats still finalizing their next move — both chambers are bracing for a high-stakes scramble as the ACA subsidy deadline looms.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— Buttigieg backs Angie Craig in high-stakes Minnesota Senate primary

Endorsement sharpens proxy battle between progressives and pragmatists

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg on Wednesday endorsed Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) in Minnesota’s closely watched Democratic Senate primary on Aug. 11, 2026, throwing his support behind a candidate viewed as a leading voice for the party’s pragmatic, centrist wing.

The contest to fill the state’s open Senate seat has quickly become a proxy fight between Democrats’ ideological factions. While Buttigieg and several moderates have lined up behind Craig, progressives are rallying around Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who has secured endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and a slate of left-leaning senators.

Craig, a three-term congresswoman from a suburban Twin Cities district, is pitching herself as a consensus-builder focused on kitchen-table issues and bipartisan results. Buttigieg’s endorsement underscores that message, framing Craig as a disciplined legislator with Midwestern sensibilities and national experience.

Flanagan, meanwhile, is leaning heavily into the energy of the party’s progressive flank. Backed by Sanders and other leading liberals, she is emphasizing economic justice, tribal issues, climate action, and a more confrontational approach toward corporate power.

Upshot: With two well-known statewide figures and two energized wings of the Democratic coalition, the Minnesota primary is shaping up as one of 2026’s most defining intraparty battles — a test of message, momentum, and the direction Democratic voters want their party to take next.

FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY

— San Francisco targets Big Food in landmark public-health lawsuit

City Claims Kraft Heinz, Coca-Cola and others fueled a crisis through deceptive marketing

San Francisco has launched a first-of-its-kind legal offensive against some of the world’s largest food manufacturers, alleging they intentionally marketed ultraprocessed foods in ways that harmed public health and saddled the city with rising medical costs. The lawsuit — filed Tuesday in San Francisco Superior Court — names 10 industry giants, including Kraft Heinz, Mondelēz International, Post Holdings, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, General Mills, Nestlé USA, Kellogg, Mars Incorporated, and Conagra Brands.

A tobacco-style case without clear definitions. City Attorney David Chiu argues the companies “engineered a public health crisis” through products linked to chronic conditions such as Type 2 diabetes and heart disease — conditions the city says taxpayers ultimately pay to treat. The case mirrors decades of litigation against tobacco and opioid manufacturers, but faces a major complication: there is no universally accepted definition of “ultraprocessed food.”

While California recently approved the nation’s first school ban tied to state-level definitions, key questions remain about which products count — from obvious categories like chips and sodas to items perceived as healthier, like granola bars and yogurts. The FDA is also exploring definitions but is still in early stages, leaving legal and regulatory terrain unsettled.

Even without national standards, consumer sentiment is shifting. Pressure campaigns targeting artificial dyes and additives have accelerated reformulation efforts, and political interest has broadened. The Make America Healthy Again movement — once considered niche — is now cutting across party lines as voters increasingly scrutinize processed ingredients.

Chiu said Americans “want to avoid ultra-processed foods, but we are inundated by them,” arguing that companies profited while externalizing the health consequences onto the public sector.

The lawsuit seeks financial damages to offset healthcare spending and an end to what the city calls deceptive marketing practices. It also asks a judge to require corrective steps from manufacturers, such as:

• Consumer education on the health risks of ultraprocessed foods

• Subsidies or support for “real food” in disproportionately affected communities

• Changes to marketing practices aimed at children and low-income households

Industry pushback expected. The suit comes as food companies are already pushing back against a growing patchwork of state-level rules involving ingredient bans or warning labels. Major manufacturers recently formed a new lobbying initiative seeking a uniform national standard, citing the costs of frequent packaging changes and reformulation.

Courts may proceed cautiously. A judge in August dismissed a similar complaint from a 19-year-old consumer who alleged ultraprocessed foods caused his diabetes, ruling he had failed to identify specific products.

Still, San Francisco’s case signals a new phase in public-health litigation — one targeting the processed-food industry with the same scrutiny previously reserved for tobacco and opioids.

— Proposed SNAP benefit reductions: What’s changing and why it matters

Cuts would hit a cornerstone of U.S. food demand — with outsized pressure on meat, poultry, dairy, and prepared foods

Republicans in Congress and some in the Trump administration have advanced proposals that would reduce SNAP benefits by tightening eligibility, adjusting the Thrifty Food Plan formula, or imposing work-requirement expansions. While none are finalized, USDA and CBO modeling show these changes would lower total SNAP outlays by billions over the next decade.

Because SNAP is one of the largest and most stable sources of food spending in the United States, even modest changes have system-wide demand implications.

How much market demand SNAP represents. SNAP purchases are enormous in aggregate:

• Around 25% of all grocery sales are influenced by SNAP households (either direct EBT purchases or SNAP-eligible households buying with cash).

• Around 10% of all U.S. meat sales are directly tied to SNAP purchases.

• For some categories (ground beef, chicken legs/thighs, pork cuts, processed meats), SNAP households can make up 15–20%+ of weekly retail volume.

SNAP is essentially a countercyclical stabilizer for food demand — during downturns, it props up grocery sales and protein consumption.

Market effects of SNAP benefit reductions. Below is a sector-by-sector impact assessment assuming benefit reductions or tighter eligibility.

1. Retail grocery sector

Impact: Moderate to significant decline in volume

• Retailers heavily exposed to SNAP traffic (Walmart, Aldi, regional grocers) could see 2–4% lower annualized volume, with deeper hits in low-income ZIP codes.

• Expect increased price sensitivity, faster trade-down to private-label, more couponing, and pressure on high-margin categories (prepared foods, branded packaged goods).

Winners

• Private-label manufacturers

• Dollar stores (if eligibility is cut, cash spend may still shift down-market)

Losers

• Large Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) brands with heavy reliance on center-aisle products

2. Meat & poultry markets

Impact: Bearish on retail meat prices

If SNAP is trimmed 5–10%, analysts estimate:

• 1–3% decline in total U.S. meat demand

• Ground beef most exposed: heavily reliant on SNAP households

• Chicken leg quarters, thighs, drumsticks would see notable demand erosion

• Pork (especially ribs, shoulder/Boston butt) would see volume pressure

In an already tight cattle supply environment, this doesn’t reverse high wholesale prices but slows price acceleration.

Key point: SNAP cuts almost always push consumers toward cheaper proteins, boosting chicken relative to beef.

3. Dairy

Impact: Mild but negative

• Fluid milk, cheese, and yogurt volumes dip.

• WIC is a bigger driver of dairy stability, so SNAP reductions hit dairy less directly than meat.

4. Fruit & vegetables

Impact: Strong trade-down

• Fresh produce takes a hit first — historically when benefits fall, households shift to canned/frozen.

• Retailers respond with price promotions and merchandising to maintain volume.

5. Commodity markets & farm-gate impacts
 

Corn & Soy: Lower livestock and ethanol demand swamp any SNAP effect; SNAP cuts do not meaningfully shift grain markets.

Livestock: Hogs and poultry see the clearest negative effect due to lower retail demand for value cuts. Beef retail demand softens at the margin — helps moderate historically tight supplies and high cutout values.

Cattle markets effect: SNAP cuts slightly temper the retail ground beef pull, but don’t relieve packer-side supply constraints. Overall effect: Marginally bearish for live cattle demand but not a trend-changer.

6. Food inflation & pricing strategy

Impact: Disinflationary at retail

SNAP cuts typically:

• Force aggressive discounting

• Slow price increases by grocers and meat departments

• Pressure higher-margin branded goods more than staples

This effect is strongest in:

• Meat

• Packaged breads/bakery

• Snacks

• Beverages

7. Rural & farm-state economic effects

Reduced SNAP benefits:

• Hit rural grocery stores disproportionately (many depend on SNAP sales ≥ 35% of revenue)

• Potentially accelerate small-store closures in low-income counties

• Lower overall small-town economic activity — important for local beef/pork/poultry processors

Bottom Line for markets

If a 5–10% SNAP reduction is implemented, expect:

Retail volumes: 2–4% decline

Meat demand: 1–3% reduction

→ Bearish for pork & chicken

→ Slightly bearish for ground beef

CPG: Lower revenue growth, faster trade-down to private label

Inflation: Disinflationary pressure on grocery CPI

Farm impacts: Minimal on grains; modest on livestock through retail channel softening.

In Short: SNAP cuts act as a demand shock to groceries and proteins, with the biggest hit falling on low-income-dependent retail channels and specific meat categories.
 

TRANSPORTATION/LOGISTICS

— Black Sea war insurance soars as vessel attacks escalate

Surging premiums reflect rising risks, broader strike zones, and fears of Russian retaliation

Insurance costs for ships operating in the Black Sea have skyrocketed — up roughly 250% — after a wave of Ukrainian strikes on tankers tied to Russia’s shadow fleet and additional incidents involving Moscow-linked vessels.

Marsh, the world’s largest insurance broker, reports that premiums for calling at Russian Black Sea ports have surged from 0.25%–0.3% of vessel value to as high as 1% for some Ukrainian ports, reflecting both the expanding geography of attacks and the growing likelihood of repeat strikes.

Underwriters are now pricing in a wider range of potential strike locations and an elevated risk of Russian retaliation, said Munro Anderson of Vessel Protect, noting that the escalating pattern of strikes significantly increases the danger for ships connected to Ukraine.

The heightened premiums follow four recent attacks on Russia-linked tankers — including two vessels from the country’s “shadow fleet,” which operates covertly to evade sanctions. Three of the incidents occurred directly in the Black Sea, compounding volatility in a region already rattled by strikes on Russian oil infrastructure.

The tension isn’t limited to Russia and Ukraine. Romania’s defense ministry revealed that divers neutralized a Sea Baby drone 36 miles off Constanta on Wednesday, highlighting broader threats to shipping across Black Sea nations.

Rates are continuing to climb “in direct response to further attacks which appear increasingly to target vessels as well as port and terminal infrastructure,” said Dylan Mortimer, Marsh’s UK Marine Hull War Leader, underscoring that the region’s maritime risk profile is still deteriorating.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Active winter weather pattern continues with snow impacting the Great Lakes, interior Northeast, and Pacific Northwest/Rockies the next couple of days… …Moderate to heavy rainfall for the Gulf Coast with isolated flash flooding possible; some wintry precipitation expected north into the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic Friday… …Surge of arctic air forecast to challenge low temperature records across the Midwest Thursday and the northern Mid-Atlantic to New England Friday.