Trump/Rollins Farmer Aid Plan Woefully Short of Accumulated Losses; Sugar, Specialty Crops Concerned
Lawmakers eye new round of farm aid | U.S. weighs phased reopening of cattle border with Mexico
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Dec. 5, updated Saturday, Dec. 13
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Dec. 5, updated Saturday, Dec. 13
Today’s Updates:
TOP NEWS
— Lawmakers eye new round of farm aid amid funding deadlines
— U.S. weighs phased reopening of cattle border with Mexico
— U.S. ag trade gap sets new record in FY 2025 despite
stronger-than-expected exports
— U.S. trade gap narrows sharply to five-year low
— November fiscal gap shrinks year-on-year as tariff revenue surges
— U.S./Mexico bilateral water talks advance as Trump threatens tariffs
— India again says trade deal near, but geopolitics delay final agreement
— Rollins presses Newsom to drop California land redistribution plan
— Canada posts surprise trade surplus as export rebound outpaces slumping imports
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight.
— Equities yesterday:
— Fed sidesteps White House pressure with early, unanimous reappointment
of regional presidents
— Fertilizer stocks surge after drone strikes on Russian plants
AG MARKETS
— USDA daily export sales
— China bought more U.S. soybeans yesterday and today.
— Argentina cuts farm export taxes, making reductions permanent
— Euronext adds evening window to boost ag futures liquidity
— Cotton AWP moves lower.
— Agriculture markets yesterday
FARM POLICY
— Farmers say Trump’s $12 bil. aid softens the blow — but falls far short of real relief
— Specialty crop growers warn USDA aid plan leaves them behind
— Analyst: Professor Zulauf’s critique of crop insurance misses the mark on
RMA’s legal authority
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Friday: Oil slips as supply glut and peace hopes weigh on markets
— Thursday: Oil falls to Oct. lows as peace signals and U.S. fuel glut weigh on market
— Biodiesel industry rallies behind Senate push to restore Blenders’ Tax Credit
CONGRESS
— ObamaCare fix still in flux as Congress scrambles for a subsidy deal
POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Indiana Senate blocks mid-decade map rewrite, derailing Trump’s push for
two new GOP seats
CHINA
— China accelerates global sales push as Trump’s tariffs reshape export strategy
TRANSPORTATION/LOGISTICS
— Duffy touts crackdown on English-language violations
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Drier weather for the Pacific Northwest but flooding effects to continue…
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Dec. 12, 2025
UP FRONT— Second farm-aid package debate Lawmakers weigh a $10–$20 billion follow-on farm aid package as thin specialty-crop funding, big Title I obligations and Jan. 30 funding deadlines collide with conservative resistance.— Mexico cattle border reopening U.S. and Mexico are exploring a phased 2026 reopening of the cattle border with new NWS quarantine zones and a possible framework announcement before Christmas.— Record U.S. ag trade deficit U.S. ag exports beat USDA’s FY 2025 forecast but record imports push the farm trade deficit to an all-time high, with FY 2026 projections clouded by new tariffs and stalled outlooks.— U.S. trade gap hits five-year low The overall U.S. trade deficit fell to a five-year low in September as exports picked up and tariff-driven shifts curbed imports, though the year-to-date gap remains wider than 2024.— Tariffs lift federal revenues The November U.S. budget deficit narrowed versus a year ago as tariff revenue more than tripled and early-FY 2026 red ink shrank despite mounting interest costs.— U.S./Mexico water standoff U.S./Mexico talks on 1944 treaty water deliveries continue under Trump’s 5% tariff threat, with Sheinbaum seeking drought flexibility and repayment stretched into the next five-year cycle.— U.S./India deal stuck on geopolitics India says almost all U.S./India trade disputes are resolved and targets a deal by March, but geopolitics — including Russian oil ties — are slowing final agreement.— Rollins vs. California land plan USDA Secretary Rollins warns California to drop its agricultural land-redistribution concept, calling it racially discriminatory and threatening immediate federal legal action.— Canada’s surprise trade surplus Canada swung to a surprise September trade surplus on rebounding exports of aircraft, vehicles, gold and oil, though economists say U.S. tariffs and USMCA risks keep the outlook fragile.— Global equities mixed Global equities are mixed to softer, with U.S. indexes set to open lower as markets parse multiple Fed speeches.— U.S. stocks diverge U.S. stocks diverged yesterday, with the Dow surging, the S&P 500 edging higher and the Nasdaq slipping modestly.— Fed locks in regional chiefs The Fed unanimously renewed all 12 regional bank presidents early, insulating its leadership from Trump-era pressure and ahead of a Supreme Court fight over Fed governance.— Fertilizer stocks spike Fertilizer shares spiked after Ukrainian drones hit Russian plants, reviving worries about nutrient supply chains and reversing earlier “peace premium” pricing.— Fresh USDA export sales USDA reported fresh U.S. soybean sales to China, soybean cake & meal to Mexico, and corn export sales to unknown buyers for 2025/26 and beyond.— China’s big U.S. soybean buys China has now booked an estimated 8–9 million tons of U.S. soybeans, confounding analysts who recently argued China wouldn’t need many U.S. supplies.— Argentina cuts farm export taxes Argentina permanently cut export taxes on soy complex, grains and sunflower, signaling a broader push to scrap farm levies and boost competitiveness.— Euronext extends ag hours Euronext will add a two-hour evening session for wheat, rapeseed and corn futures in February to deepen liquidity and attract more U.S. participation.— Cotton AWP drops, LDP rises A lower cotton AWP boosts the LDP to 1.61 cents per pound, the largest of the marketing year and the seventh LDP in nine weeks.— Grain and cattle futures firm Grain and livestock futures mostly firmed yesterday, with corn, soybeans, wheat and cattle higher while cotton and HRW wheat slipped.— Farmers say aid is inadequate Farmers say Trump’s $12 billion farm aid will cover only a fraction of tariff- and cost-driven losses and insist market recovery, not recurring programs, is the real solution.— Specialty crops feel shortchanged Specialty crop and sugar producers warn USDA’s $1 billion reserve pits non-row crops against each other and badly undershoots sector losses without new congressional authority.— Zulauf crop-insurance critique challenged A veteran analyst argues Professor Zulauf’s critique of USDA’s crop insurance changes misreads RMA’s legal authority and could spur unfounded attacks on the program.— Oil drifts lower on glut, peace hopes Oil is drifting lower and on track for a weekly loss as supply gluts and peace hopes outweigh Venezuela and Russia-related risks.— Crude under pressure from fuel glut Crude fell back to October lows Thursday on heavy U.S. fuel inventories and tentative Russia-Ukraine diplomacy, despite sporadic support from regional disruptions.— Push to revive biodiesel BTC Biodiesel, fuel and retail groups are backing Sen. Blackburn’s six-month revival of the Blenders’ Tax Credit as a bridge while uncertain 45Z rules stall soybean-based fuel output.— Data centers self-generate power Explosive AI-driven power demand is pushing data centers toward self-generated energy, microgrids and dedicated plants, reshaping both electricity markets and infrastructure planning.— ObamaCare subsidy fix uncertain Congress remains deadlocked on expiring ACA subsidies, but new bipartisan House bills suggest a short-term extension deal is still likely before election-year fallout hits.— Indiana kills mid-cycle GOP map Indiana’s GOP-run Senate unexpectedly killed a mid-decade congressional map redraw that would have added two Republican seats, though redistricting fights could resume in January.— China pivots exports beyond U.S. China is pivoting exports toward the Middle East and emerging markets as U.S. tariffs bite, even as domestic property woes strain manufacturers and fuel new trade tensions.— Duffy touts English crackdown Transportation Secretary Duffy touts removing nearly 9,500 truckers from the road for English-language violations, as critics question how accurately the crackdown reflects actual safety risks.— NWS sees warmth West, snow Midwest The NWS sees lingering flood impacts in the Pacific Northwest, record warmth in parts of the West, Arctic air dropping into the Northern Plains and a swath of snow from the Dakotas to the Appalachians.TOP STORIES —Lawmakers eye new round of farm aid amid funding deadlinesPush grows for $10–$20 billion package, but timing and scope remain unsettled Lawmakers in both chambers are already exploring a second agricultural aid package, even as the administration’s newly announced $12 billion program rolls out. House Ag Committee Chair GT Thompson (R-Pa.) told Politico he wants “another 10 [billion dollars],” but conceded he has “no” clear timeline. In the Senate, Appropriations Agriculture Subcommittee Chair John Hoeven (R-N.D.) said the package “is still a work in progress,” declining to name a target number. Some lawmakers are pushing for as much as $20 billion in additional relief, particularly after specialty crops received just $1 billion in the current package. The debate is intensifying ahead of the Jan. 30 expiration of the continuing resolution, with many hoping to attach the agriculture aid package to whatever measure keeps the government funded. A key pressure point will be the administration’s by-commodity payment levels expected next week, which early signals suggest may be spread thin (a speculative look at payment rates from tax expert Paul Neiffer follows). That concern is colliding with broader legislative demands, including a potential “farm bill 2.0” to address provisions left unresolved by the Inflation Reduction Act and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Thompson aims for a January markup — further complicating the path for new aid. Adding to the uncertainty, some conservative House Republicans are likely to resist another round of agricultural assistance, while other sectors of the economy, still without aid of their own, may also press for relief. The following is a speculative look at possible farmer aid payment rates from Paul Neiffer, Farm CPA Report: This appears to be a similar calculation to the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP). ECAP took the December 2024 MYA estimates from USDA and then subtracted the estimated cost of production for the 2024 crop and then applied a payment percentage. $10 billion was authorized for ECAP, $11 billion for FBA. Therefore, Neiffer says it is likely that FBA payment rates will be at least 10% higher on average. “Let’s assume that any increase in the cost of production for 2025 compared to 2024 will be about the same percentage for all crops. Therefore, the only difference between ECAP and FBA is the estimated MYA price. Here are our estimates of how the final FBA payment rates will be:”CropDec 2024Dec 2025% Diff2025 ECAP2026 FBA Est.90% LevelCorn$4.10$4.002.4%$42.91$48.35$43.52Soybeans$10.20$10.50-2.9%$29.76$31.77$28.59Wheat$5.60$5.0010.7%$30.69$37.38$33.64Cotton$0.3473$0.32526.4%$84.74$99.15$89.24Rice$0.145$0.10527.6%$76.94$107.98$97.18Sorghum$4.10$3.807.3%$42.52$50.19$45.17Barley$6.60$5.3019.7%$21.67$28.53$25.68Oats$3.40$3.108.8%$77.66$92.96$83.66Peanuts$0.27$0.2505.7%$75.51$87.76$78.98Dry Peas$0.14$0.11814.8%$16.02$20.23$18.21Lentils$0.34$0.3137.9%$19.30$22.92$20.63Canola$0.20$0.215-5.9%$31.83$32.94$29.65Large Chickpeas$0.33$0.28015.2%$24.02$30.43$27.39Small Chickpeas$0.26$0.19425.4%$31.45$43.38$39.04Sunflower Seed$0.20$0.23-16.7%$27.23$24.95$22.46Flaxseed$13.00$13.50-3.8%$20.97$22.18$19.96Mustard Seed$0.48$0.42810.3%$11.36$13.85$12.47Rapeseed$0.16$0.313-95.3%$23.63$1.22$1.10Safflower$0.30$0.23023.3%$26.32$35.71$32.14Crambe$0.19$0.375-95.3%$19.08$0.98$0.88Sesame Seed$0.39$0.33015.4%$16.83$21.36$19.22Neiffer says “there may be some tweakage among the crops. For example, this assumes that soybeans may not get as much as an increase due to the price increase over the last year. However, the perception is that soybean growers have been damaged due to the lack of China buys.” Of note: Internal Trump administration estimates peg crop losses just among major crops at $46 billion. And this: Says one key source: “Appropriators continue to restrict tariff revenue used for producers to $350 million. And CCC borrowing authority yet again remains at $30 billion. They are essentially asking USDA Secretary Rollins, who knows she will owe around $18 billion in Title 1 alone in October 2026, to stick her head in the sand and pay. Congress needs to step up. That includes the two legislators from Minnesota who just put out press releases with no solutions.” The anemic farmer aid funding for specialty crops and sugar growers is a big issue, with more on this topic in the Farm Policy section below. —U.S. weighs phased reopening of cattle border with MexicoPossible pre-Christmas announcement as officials eye 2026 timeline Attention is mounting over a potential plan to reopen the U.S. border to cattle imports from Mexico, with several industry contacts indicating that a tentative agreement may already be in place. The approach under discussion closely mirrors the phased-in reopening effort the administration attempted this summer — an effort that was halted within days after a case of New World Screwworm (NWS) was detected in northern Mexico near the U.S. border. According to those familiar with the talks, officials are considering announcing the framework for a gradual reopening ahead of Christmas, though there is still uncertainty around the timing of implementation. Most market observers believe actual cattle movements would not resume until early 2026. Key provisions believed to be part of the plan include establishing a quarantine zone — estimated at roughly 12 miles — around the site of any future NWS detections in Mexico. The targeted-buffer approach is intended to minimize risk while allowing cross-border cattle trade to resume under controlled conditions.—U.S. ag trade gap sets new record in FY 2025 despite stronger-than-expected exportsExports edge past USDA’s forecast, imports come in slightly lower—but the deficit still climbs to an all-time high as policymakers await a delayed trade outlook clouded by new tariffs and pending agreements U.S. agricultural exports rose to $13.46 billion in September, up from $13.21 billion in August, while imports eased to $15.79 billion, a touch below August’s $15.91 billion. The result was a $2.32 billion monthly deficit, slightly narrower than the prior month. For the full FY 2025, exports totaled $175.61 billion, surpassing USDA’s August forecast of $173 billion, while imports came in at a record $219.36 billion, just under USDA’s $220 billion projection. The resulting $43.75 billion trade deficit marks the largest on record. The fiscal year results halted a two-year slide in U.S. agricultural exports. Notably, FY 2025 also marked the first year since FY 2016 in which imports did not set a new record high, even though they remained elevated. USDA was scheduled to release an updated trade outlook on Nov. 25, but the government shutdown prevented publication. An initial rescheduled release date of Dec. 23 has since been set aside with no new date announced. The agency’s preliminary FY 2026 outlook, issued in August, projected exports at $169 billion and imports at $210.5 billion, for a deficit of $41.5 billion. But USDA analysts must now rework that forecast to account for the new wave of import tariffs imposed on key trading partners and to evaluate how many of the Trump administration’s trade agreements may be finalized in time to influence export flows. Since May 2025, USDA has omitted explanatory commentary from its trade outlook reports — an absence that now looms large as markets and policymakers seek clarity on the evolving FY 2026 trade landscape. —U.S. trade gap narrows sharply to five-year lowSeptember deficit drops as Trump-era tariffs reshape import patterns The U.S. trade deficit fell to its lowest monthly level in five years as September data showed exports strengthening and imports rising more slowly amid continued tariff adjustments under President Donald Trump. Exports climbed to $289.3 billion while imports reached $342.1 billion, resulting in a $52.8 billion deficit — down from $59.3 billion in August and the smallest gap since June 2020, when the pandemic upended global supply chains. The report, released late due to the fall government shutdown, highlights shifting trade flows as companies adapt to steep and evolving tariffs. The year-to-date deficit remains 17% larger than the same period in 2024, a reflection of the early-year import surge as firms raced to bring in goods ahead of new duties. September’s export gains were driven by stronger sales of gold and consumer goods such as pharmaceuticals. On the import side, declines in computers and other electronics helped offset increases in consumer products, contributing to the narrower monthly deficit. —November fiscal gap shrinks year-on-year as tariff revenue surgesCustoms duties triple from last November, helping narrow the early-FY 2026 deficit despite rising interest costs The U.S. government recorded a $173.3 billion budget deficit in November, with $336.0 billion in receipts and $509.3 billion in outlays, according to Treasury data. For the first two months of Fiscal Year 2026, the cumulative deficit stands at $458 billion, a notable improvement from $624 billion at the same point in FY 2025. The early-year deficit narrowed as revenues climbed to $740 billion, compared with $629 billion a year earlier, while spending dipped to $1.198 trillion from $1.253 trillion in the same period of FY 2025. A major driver of the revenue surge was Customs Duties, which hit $32 billion in November — a 330% jump from the $7 billion collected in November 2024. Through the first two months of FY 2026, tariff revenue has reached $65 billion, up from $15 billion in the same stretch of FY 2025, a 323% increase driven by the Trump administration’s expanded tariff regime. Interest costs, however, continue to climb. The government paid $88 billion in net interest in November and $179 billion so far in FY 2026. Interest on the public debt reached $96 billion in November (up from $87 billion a year earlier), totaling $201 billion for the first two months — 19% higher than the $169 billion recorded over the same period in FY 2025. —U.S./Mexico bilateral water talks advance as Trump threatens tariffsMexico seeks flexibility under 1944 treaty as drought-driven shortfall fuels U.S. pressure Mexico’s government says negotiations with the United States are progressing after President Donald Trump warned he would impose an additional 5% tariff on Mexican goods unless Mexico promptly delivers a substantial volume of water owed under the 1944 water-sharing treaty. President Claudia Sheinbaum said Thursday that her administration remains confident an agreement will be reached, noting that another bilateral meeting was scheduled later in the day. She emphasized that both nations must recognize Mexico endured “five years of drought” during the 2020–25 treaty cycle — a period in which Mexico was required to send 1.75 million acre-feet of water north but delivered just over half that amount. Sheinbaum stressed that the shortfall was not political but environmental. “There was drought — because there wasn’t water, it’s as simple as that,” she said. Much of the Mexico/U.S. border remains abnormally dry despite a generous rainy season, according to the National Water Commission. Under the treaty, countries may compensate for missed deliveries in the following five-year cycle, a provision Mexico is now relying on. “That’s what we’re working on,” Sheinbaum said, adding that the pace of repayment “depends on how much rain we have.” —India again says trade deal near, but geopolitics delay final agreementNew Delhi argues most U.S./India trade issues are resolved, with remaining hurdles tied to global politics rather than tariffs India’s chief economic adviser said Thursday that the U.S. and India have settled nearly all trade-related disputes, but finalizing a deal is now held up by geopolitical considerations. V. Anantha Nageswaran told BloombergTV that while negotiations have made “substantial” progress, predicting a timeline has become difficult. Talks restarted in September, and Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Rick Switzer finished meetings in New Delhi this week. Despite the progress, tensions over India’s continued — though declining — purchases of Russian oil remain a political complication. The U.S. imposed two rounds of 25% tariffs on Indian goods this year, citing both the trade deficit and India’s Russian oil imports. Nageswaran said he still expects an agreement by March. USTR Jamieson Greer this week called India’s latest proposals “the best we’ve ever received,” prompting Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal to say the U.S. should “sign on the dotted line” if that is the case. Prime Minister Narendra Modi also spoke with President Trump on Thursday, calling the discussion warm but offering no update on the trade deal’s timing. —Rollins presses Newsom to drop California land redistribution plan USDA warns of “immediate legal action” if state advances equity task force proposal USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins sharply rebuked California’s proposed agricultural land-redistribution framework on Thursday, sending a letter (link) to Gov. Gavin Newsom urging the state to abandon the idea and warning of swift federal intervention if it moves forward. Rollins charges to “plainly racially discriminatory policies.” Rollins said the proposal under review by the California Agricultural Land Equity Task Force — a body created under the 2022 state budget and charged with recommending policies to address what it calls an “agricultural land equity crisis” — amounts to “plainly racially discriminatory policies.” The task force is required to deliver a report with policy recommendations to the governor and legislature by Jan. 1, 2026. Speaking on behalf of USDA, Rollins wrote that “the department demands California abandon any effort to implement the actions recommended in the report. If California persists, expect immediate legal action.” While California leaders have framed the task force’s work as an effort to expand land access and correct generational inequities in farm ownership, Rollins’ letter signals the clearest and most confrontational federal stance yet against state-level equity initiatives in agriculture — setting up a potential legal and political showdown heading into 2026. —Canada posts surprise trade surplus as export rebound outpaces slumping importsAircraft, gold and vehicle shipments drive a sharp September turnaround, but economists warn Canada’s trade recovery remains fragile amid U.S. tariffs and looming USMCA talks Canada recorded its first international trade surplus in seven months in September — a modest $153 million, but a dramatic reversal from the $6.4-billion deficit logged in August. Statistics Canada said the shift came from a powerful rebound in exports, particularly to the United States, combined with a broad pullback in imports. Total exports jumped 6.3% to $64.2 billion, the strongest monthly gain since early 2024, following a steep drop in August. Shipments to the U.S. rose 4.6%, widening Canada’s bilateral surplus from $6 billion to $8.6 billion, its largest since February — just before President Donald Trump’s tariff actions began disrupting cross-border trade. Exports were boosted by a surge in aircraft sales, including a notable increase in private jet deliveries to the U.S., which helped push aircraft exports up more than 72%. Additional strength came from light truck and unwrought gold shipments, with gold exports rising to markets including Switzerland, the U.S., and Britain. Crude oil exports were also up 5.8%, driven largely by higher volumes shipped to Germany. Canada’s diversification push showed progress as well: exports to non-U.S. markets increased 11%, while imports from those countries fell 7.3%, narrowing Canada’s non-U.S. trade deficit from a record $12.4 billion to $8.5 billion. But the September surplus was also heavily dependent on a 4.1% decline in imports, driven by weaker purchases of metals, minerals, consumer goods, and pharmaceuticals. High-value gold imports from South Africa and Switzerland that inflated August numbers did not recur, and pharmaceutical imports — particularly from Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark — fell nearly 14%. Economists cautioned that Canada’s trade rebound remains vulnerable. The upcoming USMCA review and Trump’s tariff posture pose significant risks for exporters already hit hard earlier this year. Despite September’s surge, export volumes remain well below year-ago levels and may soften again before staging a more durable recovery in 2026. Bottom Line: Canada’s trade picture is still far from stabilized. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings. Several Fed officials are speaking today, including Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee. In Asia, Japan +1.4%. Hong Kong +1.8%. China +0.4%. India +0.5%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.3%. Paris +0.5%. Frankfurt +0.2%.
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Dec. 11 | Point Difference from Dec. 10 | % Difference from Dec. 10 |
| Dow | 48,704.01 | +646.26 | +1.34% |
| Nasdaq | 23,593.86 | -60.30 | -0.25% |
| S&P 500 | 6,901.00 | +14.32 | +0.21% |
—Fed sidesteps White House pressure with early, unanimous reappointment of regional presidents
Move shores up leadership stability ahead of Supreme Court challenge and a potential change at the top of the central bank
The Federal Reserve made an unexpected end run around the Trump administration on Thursday, unanimously reappointing all 12 regional Reserve Bank presidents to new five-year terms beginning March 1, 2026 — months earlier than anticipated (except for Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who previously announced plans to retire.) The decision, typically announced in February, followed intense speculation that the White House might seek to influence or block certain reappointments as part of a broader effort to reshape Fed leadership.
The early move comes after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Kevin Hassett — now viewed as the leading contender to replace Chair Jerome Powell in May — publicly floated the idea of imposing a three-year residency requirement on regional presidents. Some observers had also expected Trump-aligned governors to raise objections to specific recertifications.
The timing adds significance: the Supreme Court is set to hear arguments next month in the case surrounding Fed Gov. Lisa Cook and Trump’s earlier attempt to remove her from the board. By locking in regional leadership now, the central bank aims to preserve institutional stability as it navigates that legal battle and prepares for a new chair.
—Fertilizer stocks surge after drone strikes on Russian plants
Markets reprice supply risks as geopolitical tensions disrupt expectations for peace
Fertilizer stocks rallied sharply after Ukraine said drones struck two fertilizer facilities in western Russia, raising fresh concerns about disruptions to global nutrient supply chains. Ukraine’s Commander of the Unmanned Forces, Robert Brovdi, said on Facebook that drones hit Acron and Dorogobuzh plants—producers of nitric acid, ammonia and other materials also used in explosives manufacturing.
Although the two sites represent only a small share of Russia’s total fertilizer output, markets reacted to the renewed geopolitical risk. “The market priced in expectations for peace which they’re now reversing,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Alexis Maxwell said.
Fertilizer trade flows have been strained since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which previously pushed U.S. nitrogen fertilizer prices to record highs. On Thursday, Mosaic Co. jumped as much as 7.8%, leading gains in the S&P 500. Nutrien rose as much as 4.9%, and CF Industries climbed 4.7%, helping lift the S&P Composite 1500 Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals Index by up to 3%.
| AG MARKETS |
—USDA daily export sales:
•132,000MT soybeans to China for 2025/26
•104,328 MT soybean cake and meal to Mexico. Of the total, 93,895 MT for 2025/26, and 10,433 MT for2026/27
•250,000 MT corn received in the reporting period to unknown destinations for 2025/26
—China bought more U.S. soybeans yesterday and today. The total is now believed to be in the 8-to-9-million-ton area. Go back and look at some soybean industry analysts who just a month or so ago said China did not need and would not buy many U.S. soybeans.
—Argentina cuts farm export taxes, making reductions permanent
Buenos Aires officially moves to ease levies on soy complex, grains as government signals broader push to eliminate tariffs
Argentina has formally enacted a new round of agricultural export tax cuts, publishing the changes in the Official Gazette and locking them in as permanent reductions. The moves lower export duties on key commodities: soybeans to 24% (from 26%), soybean oil and meal to 22.5% (from 24.5%), wheat and barley to 7.5% (from 9.5%), corn and sorghum to 8.5% (from 9.5%), and sunflower to 4.5% (from 5.5%).
Economy Minister Luis Caputo, who previewed the reductions earlier, said on X that “eliminating export tariffs has always been a priority,” adding that the administration will continue working toward that goal “as soon as possible.” He emphasized that the newly published cuts are permanent — unlike earlier, temporary adjustments made this year — marking a substantive shift in Argentina’s efforts to boost competitiveness and revive its farm economy.
—Euronext adds evening window to boost ag futures liquidity
Exchange to launch two-hour post-close session in February, aiming to give traders — especially in the U.S. — greater flexibility
Euronext will roll out a two-hour evening trading window for its key agricultural futures on Feb. 2, 2026, extending access for market participants in milling wheat, rapeseed, and corn. The expanded schedule adds a 6:30 p.m. to 8:30 p.m. Central European Time (CET) session to the current 10:45 a.m.–6:30 p.m. CET trading day (3:45 a.m.–11:30 a.m. CT).
The exchange said the added window is intended to “support clients’ trading activity by offering more flexibility beyond the regular trading session.” The new session will apply to all contract months except the front month during the final three days before expiration.
Daily settlement will continue to be fixed at 6:30 p.m. CET, and trades executed during the evening session will count toward the same day’s volume and open interest, marked to market using that settlement price.
Reuters previously reported in September that the long-rumored extension was widely viewed as an effort to draw additional U.S.-based participation in Euronext’s agricultural markets.
—Cotton AWP moves lower. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton moved to 50.39 cents per pound, effective today (Dec. 12), down from 51.28 cents per pound the prior week. This results in an LDP of 1.61 cents per pound, the largest of the marketing year and marks seven out of the last nine weeks that an LDP has been available.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Dec. 11 | Difference from Dec. 10 |
| Corn | March | 4.46 1/2 | Up 2 1/4 cents |
| Soybeans | January | 10.93 1/2 | Up 2 1/4 cents |
| Soybean Meal | January | 302.10 | Up $0.90 |
| Soybean Oil | January | 50.82 | Down 27 points |
| Wheat SRW | March | 5.33 1/2 | Up 4 cents |
| Wheat HRW | March | 5.22 1/4 | Down 1 cent |
| Spring Wheat | March | 5.76 1/2 | Up 1 1/4 cents |
| Cotton | March | 63.97 | Down 15 points |
| Live Cattle | February | 230.95 | Up $2.425 |
| Feeder Cattle | January | 343.40 | Up $5.025 |
| Lean Hogs | February | 84.175 | Up $1.75 |
| FARM POLICY |
—Farmers say Trump’s $12 billion aid softens the blow — but falls far short of real relief
Producers warn the new program covers only a fraction of tariff- and input-driven losses, urging long-term market solutions over temporary federal support
Farmers across the U.S. are offering measured — often frustrated — reactions to the Trump administration’s new $12 billion economic-loss aid program, unveiled as compensation for revenue hits tied to years of weakened export demand and input-related inflation. While many producers say the support will help them stay afloat through another difficult year, they stress that the relief is nowhere close to covering the true financial damage sustained.
Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association and a Kentucky-based farmer, said Tuesday that the federal package will cover only about a quarter of the average losses soybean producers have absorbed. “This is a Band-Aid on an open wound,” Ragland told CNN. “We’re thankful that there’s something, that this will help keep some farms in business, but what we truly need are market-based solutions. Those are sustainable long-term.”
Soybean growers say they have been among the hardest hit, facing steep price declines, ongoing export uncertainty, and weaker forward contracting opportunities. (Some other crop sectors have faced a more negative price/margin shortfall, including sorghum and cotton farmers.) Producers note that the financial strain did not occur overnight but has accumulated across multiple seasons of depressed margins, rising input costs, and shifting global buying patterns — especially from China, once the U.S.’ largest soybean customer.
Farmers welcome short-term aid but insist only stable, profitable markets — not recurring federal payouts — can secure their long-term survival. Ragland emphasized that while farmers appreciate any assistance that keeps operations viable, they reject the notion that federal payments can substitute for functioning, profitable markets. “What farmers want,” he added, “is opportunities to make a living, to make a profit from the market, not being dependent on the next program to keep us from bleeding to death.”
Many other producers echoed the sentiment, saying that uncertainty surrounding export demand, soybean crush margins, and global competition continues to weigh heavily on planting decisions and long-term investment planning.
Some warn that the narrow scope of the aid program — relative to multiyear income losses — may accelerate consolidation in the farm sector as smaller and mid-sized operations struggle to manage debt loads.
Agricultural economists note that while the $12 billion program offers short-term liquidity, it does not address the structural challenges created by ongoing tariffs, retaliatory measures, and the erosion of predictable global trade flows. Markets, they say, remain the core driver of farm profitability, with federal stopgaps serving only as temporary stabilizers.
Meanwhile, specialty crop producers, who for now only get $1 billion in financial aid, say that tally falls well short of actual need. (See next item for more on specialty crops.)
Bottom Line: For many growers, the message is the same: emergency aid may help them survive another year, but market restoration — not recurring government programs — is what will ultimately determine whether they can thrive.
—Specialty crop growers warn USDA aid plan leaves them behind
Producers fear $1 billion reserve will spark competition for scarce relief; industry leaders say specialty crops face deeper losses and fewer safety-net tools; big issue is that sugar growers included in specialty crop category
Specialty crop growers say they are increasingly frustrated with USDA’s new $12 billion farm aid package, warning that the decision to reserve $1 billion for future, to-be-determined support effectively pits producers against one another and leaves fruit, vegetable, tree-nut, and nursery operations at a disadvantage.
USDA plans to distribute $11 billion to row-crop producers by the end of February, while holding back $1 billion for “specialty crops and others” as it gathers more information on sector-wide needs, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said during a Dec. 8 roundtable. That delay — and uncertainty — has specialty crop groups alarmed.
Quote of note: Kam Quarles, CEO of the National Potato Council and co-chair of the Specialty Crop Farm Bill Alliance, said the reserve leaves his industry unsure of both timing and scale of support: “The $1 billion is very much in question and what share of it the specialty crop industry would receive is also in question.”
He added that any non–row-crop producer seeking relief will face additional hurdles to prove eligibility. Even under the best circumstances, he argued, $1 billion falls far short of what the sector requires given soaring production costs, shrinking margins, and export risks tied to global trade tensions.
An October American Farm Bureau analysis underscored those pressures, citing rapid cost inflation, volatile demand, and limited access to traditional safety-net programs. A “more responsive safety net,” it concluded, is essential for sustaining the diversity of U.S. agriculture.
Of note: In announcing the farmer aid package, USDA put sugar alongside specialty crops. Sugar beet losses alone exceed $500 million, sources advise. One first-year grower planting beets says he is losing $700 per acre. Throwing every non-row crop into the $1 billion aid pot is being called “Hunger Games,” according to one contact.
Quarles and other industry representatives emphasized that USDA is hamstrung by limited authorities and will need additional help from Congress. Rebeckah Adcock of the International Fresh Produce Association said producers want to compete globally—not against each other—and that Congress must supply USDA with more resources to address the “very strong economic winds” buffeting the sector.
Lawmakers are already weighing targeted relief. A bipartisan group in the House last week introduced the “Specialty Crop & Wine Producer Tariff Relief Act,” which would authorize USDA to compensate growers and wine producers for losses tied to increased tariffs, reduced exports, labor cost spikes, and weakened foreign demand. The bill would give USDA broad authority to structure payments, while leaving final funding levels to future appropriations decisions. Aid under the program could be delivered through 2030.
Backers of the legislation frame the challenge differently: Democratic sponsors blame Trump-era tariff impacts, while Republicans stress that both row-crop and specialty-crop growers are suffering and should be supported together.
Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.) said: “The agricultural economy is suffering, and dividing farm country isn’t the solution.”
Bottom Line: Specialty crop leaders warn that without congressional intervention, the sector risks being underfunded again — despite bearing some of the steepest cost burdens and fewest safety-net protections in U.S. agriculture.
—Analyst: Professor Zulauf’s critique of crop insurance misses the mark on RMA’s legal authority
While Zulauf’s laissez-faire policy views merit debate, analyst says his claims about USDA’s statutory limits misread the law and risk fueling unfounded challenges to the federal crop insurance program
It didn’t take long to get reaction to an item when Carl Zulauf warned (link) USDA administrative changes have expanded ECO subsidies far beyond Farm Bill scoring, raising fiscal-integrity concerns.
One veteran policy observer emailed: “It’s not a secret that Professor Zulauf does not particularly like federal crop insurance. His reasons are largely grounded in his laissez faire perspective, at least when it comes to agriculture. But a lawyer he is not and his appraisal of RMA’s statutory authority is inaccurate. He may well know this but if he can thread a plausible argument, it might gain the attention of some critic of crop insurance that could explore his legal theories even if they sail way too close to the wind. Certainly respect the professor’s opinions on agriculture policy, though I disagree with them, but the legal theories he propounds are without any basis.”
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Friday: Oil slips as supply glut and peace hopes weigh on markets
Benchmarks head for weekly loss despite geopolitical tensions offering occasional support
Oil prices edged lower Friday and were poised for a weekly decline, as traders focused on a growing global supply glut and the possibility of a Russia/Ukraine peace deal—despite fresh concerns over Venezuelan supply disruptions.
Brent crude dipped 19 cents, 0.31%, to $61.09 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate slipped 15 cents, 0.26%, to $57.45. Both benchmarks had fallen roughly 1.5% on Thursday and are down more than 4% for the week.
While the overarching market narrative points to supply outweighing demand, several geopolitical factors are still providing intermittent support. Rystad Energy analyst Janiv Shah noted rising tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, as well as Ukrainian drone strikes on a Russian oil rig in the Caspian Sea. The U.S. is preparing to intercept additional vessels carrying Venezuelan oil following the seizure of a tanker earlier this week, six sources told Reuters.
Russia’s November seaborne oil product exports slipped just 0.8% from October, as the end of refinery maintenance helped offset reduced flows from the Black Sea and Azov Sea, according to industry data and Reuters calculations.
Still, analysts say any upward price moves are likely to be short-lived.
OPEC’s latest outlook shows global oil supply and demand aligning more closely in 2026 — a more bearish shift from earlier this year, and one that diverges from the International Energy Agency’s projections.
—Thursday: Oil falls back to October lows as peace signals and U.S. fuel glut weigh on market
Rising gasoline and distillate stocks, easing geopolitical risk, and shifting IEA forecasts combine to pressure crude benchmarks
Oil prices retreated on Thursday, dragged lower by a combination of bloated U.S. fuel inventories and signs of possible movement in Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Brent settled at $61.28, down $0.93 (-1.49%), while WTI closed at $57.60, down $0.86 (-1.47%), with both benchmarks briefly off nearly 2% and returning to levels last seen in October.
Physical-market weakness remained a primary headwind. U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories each climbed by roughly 2.5 million barrels last week, extending an oversupply trend that continues to compress refining margins and undermine crude demand. Analysts said the persistent glut in product stocks is one of the market’s heaviest drags.
Geopolitical developments added further pressure. Diplomatic channels between Russia and Ukraine appeared to inch forward, with U.S., British, French, and German officials holding a coordinated call they described as a critical phase in ongoing negotiations. Moscow signaled that U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff’s recent visit eased certain “misunderstandings,” though major differences remain. Any path toward a negotiated framework raises the prospect of additional Russian barrels eventually returning to the market.
Ukraine’s strike on a Russian offshore platform in the Caspian Sea briefly lent intraday support, marking the first time production there has been halted by the conflict, but optimism around diplomacy outweighed the disruption.
Elsewhere, tensions between Washington and Caracas persisted after the U.S. seized a tanker near Venezuela. While flows have not yet been affected, analysts warned that further escalation could roil heavy-crude markets. Asian buyers are already demanding steep discounts for Venezuelan barrels amid heightened loading risks and increased competition from sanctioned Russian and Iranian crude.
The macro backdrop added another layer of complexity. The International Energy Agency boosted its 2026 demand projections while trimming supply growth estimates, pointing to a somewhat narrower surplus next year. Still, traders remain focused on near-term oversupply in refined products — and the possibility of more Russian oil re-entering the system — as the dominant bearish forces in the market.
—Biodiesel industry rallies behind Senate push to restore Blenders’ Tax Credit
Blackburn bill would revive the BTC for six months as producers warn 45Z uncertainty is crippling soybean-based fuel output
Truck stops, convenience stores, fuel retailers and heating oil dealers are lining up behind a new legislative proposal (link) to bring back the Biodiesel Blenders’ Tax Credit (BTC), arguing it would provide an immediate boost to soybean demand and stabilize a sector hammered by policy uncertainty.
Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) this week introduced a bill to reinstate the BTC for six months, through May 31, 2026. Under the proposal, taxpayers could choose between claiming the revived BTC or using the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, which replaced the BTC at the start of the year but remains paralyzed by the absence of formal Trump administration guidance.
Of note: Indications are that there could be action by the U.S. Treasury to release guidance on 45Z covering only 2025 as that would allow companies to know the rules for their 2025 tax year.
Biofuel producers say the regulatory vacuum has chilled production, especially for biodiesel, which relies heavily on soybean oil. Many refiners have pulled back output or paused expansion plans while they wait for clarity on 45Z eligibility, lifecycle accounting, and compliance pathways. Expectations are that the 45Z credit may not come close to matching the $1 per gallon BTC.
Backers of the legislation say that reinstating the BTC— even briefly — would serve as a bridge for producers, stabilize soybean oil markets, and prevent layoffs across the fuel distribution chain while the administration completes work on the long-delayed 45Z regulations.
| There’s no publicly released official cost estimate specific to the six-month reinstatement of the Biodiesel Blenders’ Tax Credit (BTC) proposed in Sen. Marsha Blackburn’s bill — e.g., from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) or Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT). Government scorekeepers often produce such estimates only after a bill is formally reported out of committee, which hasn’t happened yet for this proposal. Here’s what is known from related data:• Historically, the BTC has been a $1 per-gallon tax credit for biodiesel and renewable diesel blenders when active.• Previous Congressional estimates suggest that extending biodiesel credits over multiple years could involve billions in tax expenditures — for example, an extension through several years was previously estimated at roughly $15.2 billion over five years in a pre-2019 analysis.• By contrast, the newer 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit (which replaced BTC in 2025) was projected by the Joint Committee on Taxation to cost around $8.4 billion over three years, or roughly $2.8 billion per year on average. Given the BTC’s per-gallon structure and the relatively short six-month window proposed, analysts expect the fiscal impact of a temporary reinstatement would be materially smaller than multi-year extensions, but still meaningfully larger than nominal administrative costs — potentially in the hundreds of millions to low billions of dollars, depending on how much biodiesel and renewable diesel is blended and claimed during the extension period. If the bill advances and receives a formal CBO or JCT score, a more precise estimate will become publicly available. |
—Why more data centers are powering themselves: Inside the shift toward self-generated energy
AI-driven electricity demand and grid constraints are pushing data centers to build, buy, or directly tap their own power sources — transforming the future of digital infrastructure
Data centers — the engines behind cloud computing and the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence — are increasingly telling regulators and communities that they are “providing their own energy.” In practice, this doesn’t mean going completely off grid. Rather, it signals a major shift: operators are no longer relying solely on traditional utility infrastructure and are instead generating or securing dedicated electricity sources to guarantee reliability and manage soaring energy loads.
On-site power generation becomes standard practice. Many of the newest facilities are being built with their own power assets installed directly on the property. Natural-gas generators and microturbines are moving from emergency-backup roles to continuous operation, often paired with combined heat and power systems for higher efficiency and lower cost volatility. Fuel-cell farms — particularly those powered by natural gas or hydrogen — offer modular, ultra-reliable power that scales with rising compute demand. On-site solar contributes a relatively small share, but when paired with batteries it can help offset demand spikes and reduce grid draws.
Direct wires and private plants: A fast-growing model. For the largest hyperscalers and AI labs, the fastest-growing approach is connecting directly to a dedicated energy source “behind the meter.” These arrangements bypass the congested utility interconnection process and allow a data center to draw power from a bespoke natural-gas plant, a dedicated wind or solar farm, or — looking ahead — a future small modular nuclear reactor. This model offers maximum reliability and control, which is increasingly vital as AI workloads multiply.
Buying power plants outright. Some operators are going even further by purchasing or co-financing entire power plants. That includes natural-gas facilities built specifically to match data center load curves or renewable projects whose output is fully committed via long-term purchase agreements. These investments effectively give a data center its own exclusive energy portfolio — an advantage in regions where the grid can no longer accommodate another gigawatt-scale customer.
Microgrids add resilience and flexibility. Microgrids are emerging as a preferred architecture for balancing on-site and off-site sources. Combining gas turbines, solar arrays, battery storage, and advanced switching software, a microgrid can operate in tandem with the utility grid or detach completely during outages or high-cost periods. For operators who cannot afford seconds of downtime, this resilience is indispensable.
Why this shift is accelerating. Several forces are driving data centers toward self-provisioned power:
• Grid bottlenecks: Utilities often lack the generation or transmission capacity to handle rapidly accelerating AI demand, creating multi-year wait times for new interconnections.
•Reliability requirements: Outages can cost millions per hour for cloud and AI providers.
• Cost certainty: Owning or contracting energy sources locks in pricing for decades.
• Sustainability goals: Operators can match dedicated renewable output to their own consumption and avoid the appearance of straining local grids.
Still connected — but no longer dependent. Despite this shift, most data centers keep a grid connection for redundancy. But the defining change is that their primary electricity supply is no longer the utility: it is their own generators, fuel cells, microgrids, or dedicated power plants. As AI accelerates, this hybrid, self-powered model is rapidly becoming the default blueprint for the next generation of data centers — one that reshapes not only the tech landscape but the energy system that supports it.
| CONGRESS |
—ObamaCare fix still in flux as Congress scrambles for a subsidy deal
Senate plans stall, but new bipartisan House proposals revive hopes for a short-term extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies before election-year pressure intensifies
Congress remains deeply divided over how to address expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies for more than 20 million Americans, with two competing Senate bills failing to advance on Thursday. Both proposals fell 51–48, far short of the 60 votes required.
The Republican bill — backed by Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) — would have replaced ACA premium subsidies with annual HSA deposits and tightened Medicaid eligibility, while also banning HSA funds for abortion or gender-transition services. Sen. Rand Paul was the lone GOP “no” vote.
The Democratic bill, led by Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), would have extended current ACA subsidies through 2028 and removed the income cap that is set to return Jan. 1 1 if Congress fails to act.
Despite the Senate gridlock, two bipartisan House proposals are gaining traction. A new bill from Reps. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) and Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) would provide a two-year subsidy extension along with safeguards against “ghost beneficiaries,” a longer open-enrollment period, and reforms targeting pharmacy benefit managers. A second proposal from Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) would extend subsidies through 2027, expand access to health savings accounts, and require even the lowest-income enrollees to make minimum monthly contributions.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is also reviewing additional options — including HSA expansion, PBM reforms, and price-transparency measures — as Republicans weigh the political risks of inaction heading into the 2026 midterms. Analysts note that battleground-district Republicans see at least a short-term subsidy extension as crucial to avoiding voter backlash. More than 3 in 4 ObamaCare enrollees live in states that Trump won last year.
Bottom Line: While no clear path has emerged, the rapid introduction of new proposals and mounting electoral pressure suggest lawmakers are likely to reach some form of compromise to blunt rising healthcare costs and prevent a lapse in ACA subsidies.
| A look at how Sen. Rand Paul votes As a Republican senator, Sen. Paul often votes in line with his party on many routine or procedural votes and on legislation that aligns with his libertarian-leaning priorities (e.g., certain budget cuts, tax policy issues), though specific individual votes vary widely over time. Scorecards from conservative organizations show that he often receives a high score on Republican/liberty-aligned votes (e.g., a high rating on the Republican Liberty Caucus scorecard reflecting support for many GOP/liberty-oriented positions).Republican Liberty Caucus Times he votes against Republican bills. However, Paul frequently votes against major Republican leadership-backed bills, especially when he believes they increase spending, expand federal power, or don’t sufficiently cut deficits: •Government funding/stopgap bills: Paul voted against a Republican stopgap funding bill that most of his GOP colleagues supported, because he objected to spending levels; this included a high-profile vote that Republicans needed to avoid a government shutdown. •Major GOP budget/reconciliation bills: In 2025, Paul joined a small minority of Republicans opposing a large budget reconciliation bill or Republican-backed “big, beautiful” spending package, even when most GOP senators supported it. •Healthcare-related Republican bill: As noted, he opposed a Republican healthcare alternative in the Senate that most GOP senators favored, instead voting against it alongside Democrats. •Other national security or surveillance extensions: For example, he was one of two Republicans voting against extending key provisions of the USA PATRIOT Act — a position that broke with broader GOP support. |
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
—Indiana Senate blocks mid-decade map rewrite, derailing Trump’s push for two new GOP seats
Nineteen Republicans join Democrats to sink redistricting bill, preserving two vulnerable Democratic districts — but a renewed fight looms in January
Indiana’s Republican-controlled state Senate delivered a sharp rebuke to President Donald Trump’s electoral strategy on Thursday, rejecting a mid-decade redistricting bill that would have carved out two additional Republican-leaning congressional seats ahead of the 2026 midterms.
The chamber voted 19–31 against the proposal — a stunning margin in a legislature long known for party discipline — after the Indiana House passed the map last week. The defeat effectively preserves the districts held by Democratic Reps. Frank Mrvan and André Carson, who were widely expected to be targeted under the new boundaries.
The bill would have reopened the congressional map less than halfway through the decade, a move Trump allies argued was necessary to “align representation with population shifts” and ensure a stronger GOP majority in Washington. But critics — including a bloc of Senate Republicans — warned that approving a mid-cycle redraw risked both legal challenges and public backlash, especially in a state that had avoided internal partisan turmoil during the last round of redistricting.
Even some Republicans who supported the concept privately expressed concern about the speed of the effort and its overtly political framing, according to lawmakers familiar with internal discussions.
The rejection does not end the fight. Legislative leaders signaled that a revised proposal could return when the General Assembly reconvenes in January, giving Trump’s political operation another chance to press for a map more favorable to GOP congressional gains.
For now, however, the Senate’s vote temporarily derails an aggressive partisan redistricting push and spares Democrats from immediate, map-induced jeopardy — at least until lawmakers decide whether to re-engage the battle in the new year.
| CHINA |
— China accelerates global sales push as Trump’s tariffs reshape export strategy
Yiwu’s vast wholesale hub shows China shifting toward Middle Eastern and emerging markets to sustain export growth despite U.S. tariffs and domestic economic strains
China is intensifying its export diversification drive as U.S. tariffs weigh on shipments to America. At Yiwu International Trade City — the world’s largest wholesale marketplace — merchants now prominently use Arabic signage, target Middle Eastern buyers, and sell products ranging from perfumes to plush toys and industrial robots. Free Arabic classes and expanded facilities underscore a state-driven push to tap non-U.S. markets.
Even as exports to the U.S. keep falling, China’s overall shipments rose 5.9% in November, lifting its annual trade surplus above $1 trillion. Yiwu’s operator is expanding its new Global Digital Trade Center and reports a 35% surge in cross-border
payments via Yiwu Pay.
But the domestic backdrop is weakening. The property slump has devastated manufacturers in hubs like Foshan, where aluminum window-frame producers have collapsed under falling home sales and U.S. tariffs that erode their competitiveness. Many are pivoting to Southeast Asia, though margins are thin.
Still, the export rebound is helping Beijing stay on track for roughly 5% growth this year, even as rising global unease over China’s swelling surplus fuels new trade tensions.
| TRANSPORTATION/LOGISTICS |
—Duffy touts crackdown on English-language violations
Nearly 9,500 commercial drivers sidelined under renewed federal enforcement
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said Wednesday that roughly 9,500 commercial truck drivers have been taken off U.S. highways this year for failing to meet federal English-language requirements, underscoring an aggressive enforcement push the administration says is aimed at improving safety. FMCSA data shows 8,953 out-of-service violations tied to English proficiency so far, with border states such as Texas and Arizona reporting the highest counts.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Drier weather for the Pacific Northwest but flooding effects to
continue… …Record warmth across portions of the west, while arctic air surges
south into the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley through Saturday… …Stripe of accumulating snow to spread from Northern Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley today, then from Midwest to Central Appalachians on Saturday… …Lake effect snow re-invigorates on Saturday and Sunday.
