Lawmakers Threaten to Block Trump’s Fed Pick Amid Powell Probe 

Key USDA reports today | More 45Z meetings at OMB | NCGA on corn outlook
 

LINKS

Link: The Week Ahead, Jan. 11: Fed Chair Powell Faces DOJ
          Investigation Over Building Renovations

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 11 
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 11
 

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Jan. x, 2026

UP FRONT

 TOP STORIES 

— Lawmakers threaten to block Trump’s Fed pick amid Powell probe
Bipartisan senators warn they will freeze Federal Reserve confirmations over a DOJ investigation into Chair Jerome Powell, escalating concerns about political pressure on central-bank independence.

— USDA report day could reset grain market narrative
Markets brace for potential corn yield cuts and key early-season demand signals, with corn feed and residual use the main swing factor; soybeans and wheat expected to see limited surprises.

— Q1 FY 2026 budget deficit narrows despite higher spending
A surge in federal revenues more than offset modest outlay growth, shrinking the first-quarter deficit by $110 billion year over year, according to CBO.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today
Stocks and the dollar dipped on news of the Powell probe, while gold and silver jumped as investors priced in Fed-independence risk.

— Equities Friday and weekly change
U.S. stocks finished Friday higher and posted solid weekly gains across major indexes.

— Gold and silver surge to records
Precious metals hit all-time highs as political pressure on the Fed, geopolitical risks, and safe-haven demand intensified.

— Credit card stocks slide after Trump floats 10% rate cap
Bank and card shares fell after Trump backed a temporary cap on credit card interest rates, sparking industry backlash over credit access.

— Supreme Court weighs Bayer bid to curb Roundup lawsuits
Justices are considering whether federal pesticide law blocks state cancer claims, a decision that could reshape mass-tort litigation and ignite political fallout.

AG MARKETS

—USDA daily export sales: 

204,000 MT corn to South Korea, 310,000 MT corn to unknown destinations for 2025/26.

— China restarts soybean auctions as U.S. buying continues
Beijing resumed state soybean auctions to manage inventories even as U.S. imports accelerate under the trade truce.

— Six forces shaping corn prices and farm profits in 2026
High acreage, elevated costs, trade risk, and ethanol policy dominate NCGA’s outlook, pointing to another year of tight margins.

— U.S. faces continued influx of Tier-2 sugar imports
Tight domestic and Mexican supplies are driving over-quota sugar imports from Brazil, Central America, and South America despite higher tariffs.

— Agriculture markets Friday and weekly change
Grains were mixed Friday, with corn and soybeans up on the week, while livestock markets softened.

FARM POLICY

— USDA final rule details OBBBA changes to ARC, PLC, and DMC
USDA locked in multi-year updates to crop and dairy safety-net programs, extending authorities through 2031 and boosting Tier 1 dairy coverage.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Monday: Oil prices slip as Iran says unrest ‘under control’
Crude eased as Iran unrest fears cooled and markets weighed potential Venezuelan supply against ample global inventories.

— Friday: Oil prices climb on geopolitical risk premium
Oil jumped about 2% on concerns over Iran unrest, Venezuela uncertainty, and broader geopolitical tensions.

— Trump signals possible exclusion of Exxon from Venezuela oil push
Trump criticized Exxon’s skepticism as he presses energy majors to help rebuild Venezuela’s oil sector.

— Treasury 45Z rule draws heavy OMB engagement
Eleven OMB meetings underscore intense industry lobbying over Treasury’s clean fuel tax credit rule.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— Peltola enters Alaska Senate race
Former Rep. Mary Peltola’s bid forces Republicans to defend a seat long seen as safe, modestly expanding Democrats’ 2026 map.

FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY

— Kennedy’s dietary guidelines flip the food pyramid
New federal guidance boosts protein and full-fat dairy, targets sugar and processed foods, and sparks sharp debate among health advocates.

— USDA sets SNAP compliance timeline under state waivers
Retailers get a 90-day grace period to comply with new SNAP purchase restrictions, but uncertainty remains over enforcement details.

— Fast food sticker shock
Drive-thru prices now rival sit-down meals, though consumers can still save with strategic ordering and app deals.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook
A rapid warm-up is forecast across much of the Lower 48 over the next two days.

TOP STORIES—Lawmakers threaten to block Trump’s Fed pick amid Powell probe, citing ‘abuse of the law’Bipartisan criticism mounts as senators warn they will freeze confirmations until DOJ investigation into Fed chair is resolved Democrats and a handful of Republicans are warning they will block President Donald Trump’s nominee to replace Jerome Powell unless a Justice Department probe into the current Federal Reserve chair is dropped or clarified, escalating a standoff over central-bank independence. Powell said Sunday that the Department of Justice issued grand jury subpoenas tied to his congressional testimony last summer about the Federal Reserve’s Washington headquarters renovation — an investigation lawmakers across parties say risks politicizing monetary policy. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) accused Trump of “abusing the law,” vowing the Senate should not advance any Trump Fed nominee. Republican Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) echoed the threat, saying he would oppose confirmations until the legal matter is resolved. At issue is whether Powell misled Congress about renovation costs that rose from roughly $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion. Powell has rejected claims of waste, saying the project consolidates operations and reduces long-term costs. In a video message, he argued the probe is retaliation for the Federal Reserve setting interest rates independent of White House preferences — an assertion backed by lawmakers warning that pressure on the Fed could destabilize markets and inflation expectations. Powell said he would continue to do the job the Senate confirmed him to do “without fear or favor.”  Powell’s response, from a statement the Fed issued last night (along with a rare video message from the chair): “This new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings. It is not about Congress’s oversight role; the Fed through testimony and other public disclosures made every effort to keep Congress informed about the renovation project. Those are pretexts. The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president. “This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions — or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.”   Trump, who has repeatedly criticized Powell over rates and management, said he was unaware of the DOJ probe but renewed his complaints about the Fed’s performance. With Powell’s chair term ending in May — though he could remain a governor until early 2028 — senators’ threats raise the prospect of a confirmation freeze that could leave leadership in limbo and further strain relations between the White House and the central bank. Of note: Trump has already taken aim at a Fed governor, Lisa Cook, whose efforts to resist being fired by Trump are expected to be heard by the Supreme Court next week. —USDA report day could reset grain market narrativeYield revisions, early demand signals, and balance-sheet math take center stage for corn, soybeans, and wheat Monday, Jan. 12, shapes up as one of the most consequential USDA report days of the year, delivering final production updates for the 2025 crop and the first clear read on how demand held up early in the marketing year. Markets are especially focused on whether delayed objective yield data finally leads to meaningful revisions — particularly for corn. Corn: Yield cut possible, but demand may matter more. Some analysts note the extended gov’t shutdown delayed the collection of full objective yield data, meaning November’s corn yield estimate of 186 bushels per acre likely under-reflected actual test weights. Despite weaker plant populations and ear counts, yields were left unchanged. Expectations now center on a downward revision, with some estimates toward the low-180s. A Bloomberg survey shows analysts, on average, expect corn yield to dip about 2 bushels to 184 bpa — likely not enough on its own to materially tighten the balance sheet, as lost bushels would probably be offset by weaker demand assumptions. That said, if yields slip closer to 180 bpa — near last year’s final figure — the market could quickly shift from a supply-driven environment to one more supportive of higher prices. A critical variable will be feed and residual use in the first quarter of the marketing year. Historically, about 40% of annual feed and residual demand occurs between September and November, making Monday’s implied usage a key test of whether USDA’s full-year demand estimates are realistic. Soybeans: Tight balance sheet, but little surprise expected. Soybean pod counts were record-high in 2025, but pod weights appeared light. Analysts generally see little reason for USDA to deviate much from its November yield estimate of 53 bpa, with the Bloomberg consensus pointing to a minor dip to 52.7 bpa. Because 2025 soybean acres were relatively light, the balance sheet has less margin for error. Most demand is already well defined through exports and crush, leaving little room for residual adjustments. While a surprise yield cut could spark a sharp rally, current cash market behavior suggests a soybean shock is unlikely in this report. Wheat: Corn likely to lead price direction. Wheat stocks will also be updated, but are expected to play a secondary role. Analysts anticipate U.S. wheat stocks near 1.64 billion bushels, above last year’s level, reflecting strong production. Although exports are running at a five-year high, large domestic and global supplies continue to cap upside potential, and more time will be needed to work through the surplus. Separate USDA data on winter wheat seedings is expected to show another decline in planted acres, with estimates averaging about 32.4 million acres. Persistent oversupply and limited price opportunities remain a headwind for producers. Bottom Line: Corn yield revisions and early-season demand — especially feed and residual use — are the primary market drivers to watch. Soybeans look stable barring a surprise, while wheat prices are likely to follow corn’s lead rather than set their own direction. —Q1 FY 2026 budget deficit narrows despite higher spendingRevenue surge offsets modest outlay growth, trimming the federal shortfall year over year The federal budget deficit totaled $601 billion in the first quarter of fiscal year (FY) 2026, according to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office. That figure is $110 billion smaller than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year. The improvement was driven largely by stronger revenues, which rose $141 billion, or 13%, compared with a year earlier. Outlays also increased, but at a much slower pace — up $31 billion, or 2%. CBO noted that timing effects had only a marginal impact on the year-over-year comparison. Some payments normally due on Jan. 1 are made in December when the date falls on a holiday, boosting first-quarter outlays. Those shifts were similar in fiscal years 2025 and 2026. Absent the timing effects, the first-quarter deficit in FY2026 would have been $112 billion lower, rather than $110 billion lower, than last year’s shortfall.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

—Equities today: U.S. stock index futures and the dollar dipped immediately on Sunday evening following a report that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was the target of a criminal investigation. Gold and silver futures, a safe-haven trade that’s viewed as a hedge against the Fed losing its independence, jumped (see related item below). In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong +1.4%. China +1.1%. India +0.4%. In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris -0.2%. Frankfurt +0.4%.

—Equities Friday and weekly change: 

Equity Index	Closing Price  Jan. 9	Point Difference  from Jan. 8	% Difference  from Jan. 8	Weekly Change
Dow	49,504.07	+237.96	+0.48%	+2.32%
Nasdaq	23,671.35	+191.33	+0.81%	+1.88%
S&P 500	6,966.28	+44.82	+0.65%	+1.57%

—Gold and silver surge to records as Fed chair faces criminal subpoenas

Metals rally accelerates on fears over Federal Reserve independence, geopolitical risk, and renewed safe-haven demand

Gold and silver vaulted to fresh all-time highs as markets reacted to the U.S. Justice Department threatening the Federal Reserve System with a potential criminal indictment, intensifying concerns about political pressure on the central bank and shaking confidence in U.S. monetary governance.

Gold briefly surged toward $4,600 an ounce, while silver jumped above $84, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the looming legal threat comes amid “ongoing pressure” from the Trump administration over interest-rate policy. The dollar weakened as investors rotated toward hard assets, while Treasury yields edged higher.

Market participants say repeated attacks on the Fed have become a structural tailwind for precious metals.

Beyond Fed-related turmoil, metals prices are being supported by falling U.S. rates, elevated geopolitical tensions, and growing skepticism that Washington will maintain a firm grip on inflation. Investors have largely resisted taking profits, signaling continued conviction in gold’s long-term role as a store of value.

Silver’s rally has been especially dramatic. The metal is up nearly 150% over the past year, fueled by tight physical supplies, heavy industrial demand, and lingering effects of a historic short squeeze.

Geopolitical risks are adding further momentum. Deadly protests in Iran, renewed tariff uncertainty — including a pending Section 232 investigation that could target silver, platinum, and palladium — and an upcoming Supreme Court of the United States decision on President Trump’s tariff authority have reinforced demand for haven assets.

As one Bloomberg strategist put it, gold’s rally reflects a rare convergence of political, monetary, and geopolitical risks — making a push toward $5,000 an ounce increasingly plausible if current conditions persist.

—Credit card stocks slide after Trump floats 10% interest rate cap

Banks warn a proposed one-year cap could restrict credit access and push consumers toward costlier alternatives 

Credit card issuers and payment-network stocks moved lower in premarket trading Monday after President Donald Trump said he favors a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10%. The proposal sparked immediate pushback from major banking trade groups, which argued that such a cap would reduce available credit and drive borrowers toward less regulated, higher-cost lending options.

In a joint statement, the American Bankers Association and allied groups cautioned that price controls could have unintended consequences for consumers. Trump, however, framed the idea as consumer protection, saying Americans should no longer be “ripped off” by card rates that often exceed 20%–30%.

Shares of major issuers and networks — including American Express Company, along with large banks and card platforms — reacted negatively as investors weighed the policy risk and potential impact on profitability if the proposal gains traction.

Trump has not outlined how such a policy would be implemented — a move that would typically require congressional legislation or regulatory action — but he told reporters that lenders failing to comply by a Jan. 20 deadline would be “in violation of the law.”

The remarks underscore Trump’s growing focus on affordability, a political vulnerability for Republicans heading into the fall midterm elections as voters remain anxious about household costs and express dissatisfaction with the economy.

According to a recent study by the Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator, a 10% cap on credit card interest rates would save consumers roughly $100 billion annually in interest payments.

The proposal places Trump alongside progressive lawmakers such as Bernie Sanders, who — along with Josh Hawley — introduced legislation in February to cap credit card rates at 10% for five years. Sanders publicly criticized high card rates just hours before Trump issued his own call for a cap.

Wall Street and the financial industry have responded forcefully. Five major banking and financial trade groups warned that a 10% cap would reduce credit availability for millions of Americans and push borrowers toward less regulated, higher-cost alternatives. Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman briefly labeled the proposal a “mistake” on social media before deleting the post.

Banks argue that higher interest margins enable them to extend credit to higher-risk borrowers and subsidize rewards programs for customers with stronger credit profiles. The Vanderbilt study estimates that a cap could lead to a $27 billion reduction in rewards, disproportionately affecting consumers with lower credit scores.

The issue is also expected to loom large at the upcoming World Economic Forum in Switzerland, where Trump and top banking executives will be in attendance — setting the stage for tense conversations over consumer finance, regulation, and political risk.

—Supreme Court weighs Bayer bid to curb Roundup cancer lawsuits

Case could determine whether federal pesticide law blocks thousands of state tort claims — and ignite a political fight spanning Trump allies, Democrats, and MAHA activists

The Supreme Court of the United States is poised to decide whether to take up a closely watched case that could sharply limit one of the largest mass-tort battles in U.S. history: lawsuits alleging that Roundup, the world’s most widely used weedkiller, causes cancer.

At the center is Bayer, which acquired Monsanto in 2018, and inherited tens of thousands of claims tied to Roundup’s active ingredient, glyphosate. Bayer is asking the justices to rule that federal pesticide law pre-empts state failure-to-warn lawsuits, arguing that because the EPA approved Roundup’s label without a cancer warning, states cannot impose additional requirements.

Litigation at stake: Bayer has already paid more than $10 billion to settle roughly 100,000 cases and still faces thousands more. A ruling for Bayer could wipe out much of the remaining docket.

Regulation vs. courts: The case tests whether EPA approval sets a minimum standard — or an absolute shield — against state tort law.

Political collision: The Trump administration has backed Bayer, reversing the Biden administration’s position, drawing fire from Democrats, environmental groups, and Republican-aligned Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) activists.

The legal fault line: For years, courts sided with plaintiffs, holding that EPA approval does not bar states from requiring stronger warnings. But a 2024 federal appeals ruling in Pennsylvania broke with that view, finding Bayer could not comply with state law without violating federal rules — creating a split Bayer says only the Supreme Court can resolve.

The petition centers on Monsanto Co. v. Durnell, brought by a Missouri gardener who developed non-Hodgkin lymphoma after decades of Roundup use. Bayer argues federal law makes additional cancer warnings legally impossible; plaintiffs say EPA labeling is only a baseline and does not foreclose state protections.

Science, politics, and unusual alliances: In 2015, the WHO’s cancer research arm classified glyphosate as “probably carcinogenic,” while the EPA continues to say it is not a carcinogen. A recent journal retraction of a glyphosate-safety paper — citing Monsanto influence — has intensified skepticism of EPA conclusions. MAHA figures tied to Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have blasted the administration’s stance, calling it a giveaway to corporate immunity. Farm groups warn the opposite outcome could threaten yields, noting glyphosate is used on roughly 300 million U.S. acres.

A case with Trump-world implications: The dispute also intersects with the background of Clarence Thomas, who once worked for Monsanto but has expressed skepticism of broad federal pre-emption defenses.

Meanwhile, some Republicans are pushing to revive legislative protections for Bayer in the skinny farm bill, even as others question why the Justice Department is siding with the company.

What comes next: The justices are considering the petition in conference and could announce whether they’ll hear the case within days — or revisit it later this term. If accepted and decided in Bayer’s favor, the ruling could reshape pesticide litigation nationwide and redefine how far federal regulatory approval can go in insulating companies from state-level accountability.

AG MARKETS

—USDA daily export sales: 204,000 MT corn to South Korea, 310,000 MT corn to unknown destinations for 2025/26 

—China restarts soybean auctions as U.S. buying continues

Beijing moves to manage stockpiles while accelerating imports under trade truce

China has resumed state soybean auctions after a three-week pause, signaling efforts to clear storage even as purchases from the U.S. accelerate following the bilateral trade truce, Bloomberg reports.

State grain stockpiler Sinograin will auction 1.13 million tons of soybeans on Tuesday, according to the National Grain Trade Center. The sale follows December auctions — the first since U.S.-China talks in South Korea in late October.

China has committed to buy at least 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans, with state firms returning to the market in late October. In the last three auction rounds, buyers purchased about 900,000 tons out of 1.58 million tons offered, based on data from Mysteel.

Bottom Line: China is balancing inventory management at home while keeping U.S. soybean imports flowing.

—Six forces shaping corn prices and farm profits in 2026

High acreage, stubborn costs, trade uncertainty, and ethanol demand will determine whether U.S. corn growers stabilize margins or face another year of losses, according to the National Corn Growers Association 

The outlook, in brief: The NCGA’s 2026 economic outlook highlights six market forces converging on corn prices and farm profitability. The common thread: supply remains abundant and costs remain high, while demand growth hinges on policy decisions — especially trade and ethanol.

1) Planted acres keep supply heavy: Corn acres remain historically high. After 98.7 million planted acres in 2025 and a record 16.8 billion bushels, USDA’s projection of 95 million acres in 2026 still implies production north of 16 billion bushels if yields hold. The soybean-to-corn price ratio favors corn again, suggesting only modest acreage trimming — if any.

Why it matters: Rising U.S. and global supplies continue to pressure prices absent a demand shift.

2) Geopolitics drive fertilizer costs: Fertilizer markets were jolted in 2025 by export controls, the Russia/Ukraine war, logistics disruptions, and U.S. tariffs. Prices jumped ~21% year over year, with only modest relief expected in 2026. Chinese exports have resumed and most fertilizers were exempted from U.S. tariffs late in 2025, but tight global balances persist and natural gas exposure keeps volatility elevated.

Why it matters: Fertilizer accounts for roughly one-third of corn operating costs; even small swings materially affect margins.

3) Farm finances under strain: Average 2026 corn costs are forecast at $917 per acre, near record levels, while the market-year average price is projected at $4.10/bu — far below 2022. On average, growers lose $0.88 per bushel, marking a fourth consecutive year of losses and intensifying reliance on operating credit.

Why it matters: Working capital erosion and tighter credit conditions raise financial risk heading into 2026.

4) Interest rates and the macro backdrop: The Fed’s late-2025 rate cuts (75 bps) offer some relief, but outlooks for 2026 diverge widely. Rates influence borrowing costs, the dollar, export competitiveness, and downstream demand for ethanol and animal protein.

Why it matters: Monetary policy can tip the balance between manageable cash flow and razor-thin margins.

5) USMCA review is a demand wildcard: The July 2026 USMCA review is pivotal. Canada and Mexico account for roughly 40% of U.S. corn exports (about 1.28 billion bushels of bulk corn), and nearly 2 billion bushels when ethanol and meat equivalents are included.

Why it matters: Preserving tariff-free access is critical to sustaining demand and supporting prices.

6) Ethanol expansion is the fastest demand lever: Approving higher ethanol blends—especially nationwide E15—could quickly boost corn use. A 5-point increase in average blend rates would consume ~2.4 billion additional bushels. Longer term, ethanol’s role could expand into aviation, maritime fuels, and bio-based materials, even as gasoline demand gradually declines.

Why it matters: Ethanol remains the most scalable near-term demand catalyst, with broader low-carbon uses shaping longer-term growth.

Bottom Line: NCGA sees 2026 as a year of tight margins driven by abundant supply and elevated costs. The path to stabilization runs through policy and demand: safeguarding USMCA, expanding ethanol blends now, and positioning ethanol for new markets. How those levers move will determine whether c orn prices merely tread water — or begin to recover.

—U.S. faces continued influx of Tier-2 sugar imports as domestic supplies tighten

Mexico, Brazil and other major producers step up exports into U.S. above TRQ levels amid lower Mexican output and strong demand

The U.S. continues to see significant Tier 2 (“high-tier” or over-quota) sugar imports — sugar entering above the country’s tariff-rate quota (TRQ) levels and subject to higher duties — as domestic production tightens and foreign supplies become relatively more attractive, according to trade data and USDA projections.

What’s driving more Tier 2 imports? Under the U.S. sugar import program, tariff-rate quotas determine how much sugar may enter duty-free (or at low tariff) from WTO and free-trade partners. Any sugar imported above those quota limits faces a much higher tariff (Tier 2), historically designed to discourage excess imports.

However, several supply and demand factors have pushed U.S. buyers toward Tier 2 imports:

• Constrained Mexican exports: Mexico has traditionally been the largest source of sugar entering the United States, both within quota and above it. But recent lower production in Mexico — from drought and higher fertilizer costs — has limited the amount of quota-eligible sugar available, leaving U.S. buyers to fill the gap with over-quota shipments.

• Domestic production pressures: While U.S. beet and cane sugar output has remained robust in some regions, overall production forecasts show modest declines in certain sectors. This combination of weaker beet output and firm demand has increased reliance on imports beyond quota limits.

•Global exporters filling the gap: Countries such as Brazil, Guatemala, Dominican Republic, Colombia, El Salvador, Costa Rica and Argentina — among others — have stepped up exports, some entering the U.S. market above quota levels to meet demand. In recent years, the U.S. imported sugar from more than 70 countries, with a sizeable portion classified as Tier 2.

Where is Tier 2 sugar coming from? Although Mexico remains a pivotal supplier, strained Mexican output has created room for other producers:

• Brazil: One of the world’s top sugar exporters, Brazil’s shipments have continued into the U.S. market.

•Central American suppliers: Guatemala, El Salvador, and Costa Rica have exported significant quantities.

•Caribbean and South American sources: Dominican Republic, Colombia and Argentina have all been notable sources of U.S. imports.

These countries often export sugar to the U.S. above quota levels — incurring Tier 2 tariffs — because world sugar prices plus tariff costs can still be competitive relative to domestic U.S. prices when U.S. supplies tighten.

Why Tier 2 imports matter. Tier 2 imports have a direct impact on U.S. market dynamics:

• Price signals: Higher-than-expected Tier 2 shipments suggest that domestic prices are elevated relative to world markets, leading refiners and food manufacturers to seek cheaper foreign sugar even at a tariff penalty.

• Supply cushion: With domestic production subject to weather and other risks, Tier 2 imports provide a supplemental supply cushion, albeit at a cost.

•Policy pressures: Continued reliance on high-tier imports can generate pressure from sugar users — such as food and beverage manufacturers — for policy reforms aimed at increasing quota levels or reducing the punitive tariff differential.

Outlook: USDA forecasts project sugar supply and use for 2025/26 with relatively high ending stocks and a modest increase in imports, but these figures assume relatively tight quota allocations and continued demand. If domestic production falters or demand strengthens materially, Tier 2 volumes could remain elevated as buyers continue to source foreign sugar to avoid supply shortfalls.

In short, Tier 2 sugar imports are likely to stay part of the U.S. supply picture this year, drawing from a diverse set of global producers as market conditions evolve, and domestic supply continues to face uncertainty.
 

—Agriculture markets Friday and weekly change:

Commodity	Contract Month	Close Jan. 9	Change from Jan. 8	Weekly Change
Corn	March	$4.45 3/4	-1/4¢	Dec: +8 1/4¢
Soybeans	March	$10.62 1/2	+1 1/4¢	+16 1/4¢
Soybean Meal	March	$303.70	+$0.10	+$7.70
Soybean Oil	March	49.69¢	+24 pts	+39 pts
Wheat (SRW)	March	$5.17 1/4	-3/4¢	+10 3/4¢
Wheat (HRW)	March	$5.30 1/4	Unchanged	+15 1/4¢
Spring Wheat	March	$5.67 1/2	-3 3/4¢	-3 1/4¢
Cotton	March	64.41¢	-5 pts	+40 pts
Live Cattle	February	$233.725	-$1.55	-$2.275
Feeder Cattle	March	$354.70	-$3.025	Jan: +$1.75
Lean Hogs	February	$85.30,	-57 1/2¢	-85¢

FARM POLICY

—USDA final rule details OBBBA changes to ARC, PLC, and Dairy Margin Coverage

Federal Register notice locks in multi-year updates to crop and dairy safety-net programs, with revised reference prices, extended authorizations through 2031, and higher Tier 1 dairy coverage 

USDA has published a final rule in the Federal Register (link) implementing changes to key farm safety-net programs authorized under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), formalizing updates to Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC), Price Loss Coverage (PLC), and Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC).

ARC and PLC: USDA said OBBBA authorizes modifications for the 2025 crop year and extends both ARC and PLC for 2026 through 2031. The final rule updates provisions tied to reference prices and effective reference prices, base acres, program elections, and payment provisions, reflecting the statute’s adjustments to how benefits are calculated and administered.

Dairy Margin Coverage: The rule also extends DMC authority through 2031, giving participating dairy operations the option to establish a new production history. In a notable expansion, Tier 1 coverage increases by 1 million pounds to a 6-million-pound limit, while eligibility for multi-year (lock-in) contracts is preserved through December 30, 2031.

Administrative updates and timing: Beyond programmatic changes, USDA noted minor administrative updates across ARC, PLC, DMC, and other regulations that apply to multiple Farm Service Agency programs. The Office of Management and Budget reviewed the final rule between Dec. 5–29, 2025. Implementation timelines for 2025 and beyond have been outlined by USDA’s Farm Service Agency, setting the stage for enrollment and operational changes under the updated framework.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

—Monday: Oil prices slip as Iran says unrest ‘under control,’ easing supply fears

Brent and WTI retreat modestly as markets weigh easing Iran disruption risk, potential Venezuelan export resumption and looming global supply surplus 

Oil prices dipped on Monday after Iran’s foreign minister said the government had “total control” following widespread anti-government demonstrations, tempering immediate concerns over supply from the OPEC producer. Brent crude futures were down about 0.2% around $63.19 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell about 0.3% to roughly $58.93, retreating from strong gains late last week.

Investors also assessed progress toward restarting Venezuelan oil exports, with U.S. agreements and trading houses moving to market Venezuelan crude, which could add barrels to the market after years of sanctions-related curbs.

Analysts say the broader oil outlook is being shaped by ample global supply. Goldman Sachs forecasts a 2026 surplus that could push Brent and WTI lower on average this year, even as episodic volatility persists.

—Friday: Oil prices climb on geopolitical risk premium

Crude rises ~2% on worries about supply disruptions from unrest in Iran and ongoing geopolitical tensions

Oil prices rose about 2% on Friday, with Brent crude futures settling $1.35 higher at $63.34 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gaining $1.36 to $59.12 a barrel, extending gains from the previous session to mark the highest levels for Brent since late December.

Traders pointed to intensifying protests in Iran — a major oil producer — as a key catalyst lifting risk premiums over fears that sustained unrest could eventually disrupt production or exports.

Supply uncertainty linked to Venezuela has also underpinned the market. Following the recent capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, the U.S. has stepped up control over Venezuelan oil flows, and companies and trading houses are racing to secure rights and logistics for exporting stored crude.

Broader geopolitical risks, including the Russia/Ukraine war, remain on traders’ radars as potential threats to supplies. However, analysts caution that rising global inventories and expectations of ample supply through 2026 could temper further gains.

—Trump signals possible exclusion of Exxon from Venezuela oil push

President criticizes Exxon’s skepticism as he presses U.S. energy majors to help rebuild Venezuela’s oil sector

President Donald Trump said he is inclined to exclude Exxon Mobil Corp. from his administration’s effort to enlist U.S. oil majors in rebuilding Venezuela’s battered petroleum industry, citing dissatisfaction with the company’s response to his initiative.

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One late Sunday, Trump said Exxon was “playing too cute” after its CEO, Darren Woods, described Venezuela as “uninvestable” during a White House meeting with nearly 20 oil executives. Woods pointed to weak legal and commercial frameworks and highlighted Exxon’s past experience with asset seizures and nationalization under Hugo Chávez.

Trump’s remarks underscore the difficulty of persuading major oil companies to commit to a long-term reconstruction of Venezuela’s once-dominant energy sector — an effort the president announced shortly after the capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Analysts estimate reviving production could require roughly $100 billion in investment and take up to a decade, raising questions about security, governance, and investment protections.

Asked what assurances he is offering, Trump said he promised companies guarantees of safety and stability, adding, “And there won’t be” problems. He did not specify how Exxon might be excluded, and the company did not immediately comment.

In contrast to Exxon’s caution, Chevron Corp. — the only major Western oil firm that continued operating in Venezuela during the Maduro era — signaled readiness to expand. Chevron Vice Chairman Mark Nelson said the company could lift output by about 50% over the next 18 to 24 months from current levels near 240,000 barrels per day.

Other international players struck a more optimistic tone as well. Repsol CEO Josu Jon Imaz San Miguel said the company is prepared to invest more once appropriate legal and commercial frameworks are established, highlighting the divergent views among energy majors as Washington pushes ahead with its Venezuela strategy.

—Treasury 45Z rule draws heavy OMB engagement

Eleven meetings now scheduled as biofuels, grain, and clean fuels groups press their case ahead of final rule

The Office of Management and Budget has added several additional meetings tied to the Treasury Department’s proposed rule implementing the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, underscoring the intensifying push by industry stakeholders to shape the final framework.

In total, 11 meetings are now scheduled at Office of Management and Budget related to the rule. Sessions begin today (Jan. 12), with one meeting scheduled today and two meetings per day planned for the remainder of the week.

Among the upcoming sessions:

•POET is slated to meet with OMB on Jan. 16.

• Meetings on Jan. 20 are scheduled with the National Grain and Feed Association and Clean Fuels Alliance America.

The expanding meeting calendar highlights the high stakes surrounding Treasury’s proposed interpretation of 45Z, which will determine how clean fuel pathways, feedstocks, and lifecycle emissions are treated under the credit — an issue with major implications for ethanol producers, biodiesel and renewable diesel interests, and grain markets alike.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

—Peltola enters Alaska Senate race, boosting Democrats’ odds

Former congresswoman challenges GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan in a long-shot bid to flip a red-leaning seat

Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola announced she will challenge Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska, giving Democrats a credible contender as they seek to regain Senate control in the 2026 midterms.

Democrats need to flip at least four seats to overcome the GOP’s 53–47 majority and had heavily recruited Peltola to expand the electoral map. She pledged to put Alaska’s interests first, focusing on affordability and government accountability.

Democratic groups aligned with Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) have already targeted Sullivan over healthcare and energy costs. Sullivan has acknowledged those pressures and recently broke with most Republicans on extending health subsidies.

Peltola, the first woman and first Alaska Native elected to Congress, benefits from strong name recognition and bipartisan goodwill, including support from Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska). While Alaska remains a tough lift for Democrats, her entry forces Republicans to defend a seat once considered safe.

FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY

—Kennedy’s dietary guidelines flip the food pyramid, boosting protein and whole dairy

RFK Jr.’s overhaul targets sugar and processed foods while loosening alcohol guidance — earning praise from meat and dairy interests and pushback from public-health advocates

The Trump administration’s newly released dietary guidelines, led by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., mark a sharp departure from prior federal advice, emphasizing whole foods, higher protein intake, and full-fat dairy while urging Americans to cut back on sugar, refined carbohydrates, and heavily processed foods.

Supporters call the shift a cultural reset for how Americans eat. Critics say the guidance elevates industry-friendly choices and muddies long-standing public-health messaging — particularly on saturated fat and alcohol.

Here is The Hill ‘s list of the “winners and losers” of new guidelines:

Winners

Meat and dairy: The new guidelines explicitly promote full-fat dairy and recommend 1.2–1.6 grams of protein per kilogram of body weight per day, a notable increase from prior ounce-based guidance. Low-fat and fat-free dairy options are no longer highlighted. Kennedy has framed the changes as ending the “war” on saturated fat, though the guidelines still advise keeping saturated fat below 10% of daily calories. “In this new guidance, we are telling young people, kids, schools, you don’t need to tiptoe around fat and dairy,” Kennedy said at a press conference. “You don’t need to push low-fat milk to kids, and we are maintaining the 10% of calories as saturated fat in the guidance.”

Public-health critics, including the Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine, argue the recommendations overemphasize animal proteins high in saturated fat and cholesterol.

“These guidelines take us back to the diets of the 1950s when everyone was eating lots of meat and dairy and not worrying much about vegetables, and heart disease was rampant,” nutritionist Marion Nestle wrote on her blog Food Politics. “I’m all for eating whole foods but these guidelines dismiss 75 years of research favoring diets higher in plant foods.”

Alcohol: The updated advice drops specific daily limits for men and women, replacing them with a general message to “consume less alcohol for better overall health.” That softer tone diverges from the World Health Organization, which says no amount of alcohol is safe. Alcohol-policy advocates say the change benefits the industry, while beverage trade groups argue the guidance reflects the weight of scientific evidence. Dietitians warn the vagueness could confuse consumers.

Mixed Bag

Heart health: Major health groups broadly welcomed the focus on fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and reduced added sugars. But the American Heart Association cautioned against heavy promotion of red meat and full-fat dairy, urging consumers to prioritize plant-based proteins, seafood, and lean meats to reduce cardiovascular risk.

Fruits and vegetables: Produce advocates say recommendations are largely unchanged, though serving-size guidance is less detailed. The new pyramid condenses food groups and recommends three daily servings of vegetables and two of fruit—roughly in line with past advice but with fewer subcategories, according to the International Fresh Produce Association.

Losers

Processed foods: The guidelines call for sharply limiting “highly processed foods,” described as items heavy in refined carbs, added sugars, excess sodium, unhealthy fats, and additives. They stop short of adopting the formal “ultra-processed” definition used by systems like NOVA, drawing criticism for ambiguity.

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins emphasized that whole foods — fresh, frozen, canned, or dried — remain acceptable. Industry groups, including SNAC International, argue many packaged foods provide affordable nutrition and should not be broadly stigmatized. Health advocates counter that clearer distinctions are needed between minimally processed staples and junk foods.

Bottom Line: Kennedy’s “upside-down” food pyramid reshapes federal nutrition advice by elevating protein, full-fat dairy, and whole foods while easing alcohol limits and taking aim at processed products. Whether it improves public health or deepens confusion will depend on how consumers — and school and federal meal programs — interpret and implement the new guidance.

Dietary guidelines: 2020–2025 vs. 2025–2030
Source: Marion Nestle, Food Politics

Recommendation	2020–2025	2025–2030	Change?
Number of pages	149	10
Calories	Measure by weight status	Eat the right amount	Same
Water	Choose	Choose	Same, but stronger
Protein	56 g/2000 kcal (0.8 g/kg)	84–112 g/2000 kcal (1.2–1.6 g/kg)	Increase
Dairy	3 cups/day	3 servings	Same
Vegetables	2.5 cups/day	3 servings/day	Decrease
Fruits	2 cups/day	2 servings/day	Decrease
Fats	27 g/day oils	Healthy fats	Prioritize animal sources
Saturated fat	<10% calories	<10% calories	Same
Grains	6 oz, >3 whole/day	2–4 servings/day	Decrease, prioritize whole
Processed foods (non-meat)	Not mentioned	Limit, avoid	Major improvement
Added sugars	Eat less	Limit, avoid	Stronger
Sodium	<2300 mg/day	<2300 mg/day	Same
Alcohol	<2 drinks/day men; 1 women	Limit, consume less	Weaker
Eat more	Vegetables, fruits, legumes, whole grains, low/non-fat dairy, lean meats, poultry, seafood, nuts, unsaturated vegetable oils	Animal-source foods, full-fat dairy, vegetables, fruits, healthy fats, butter, beef tallow, whole grains
Eat less	Red and processed meats, sugar-sweetened foods and beverages, refined grains, alcohol	Added sugars, refined grains, chemical additives, fruit & vegetable juices, highly processed foods and beverages, sodium, alcohol
Dietary sustainability	Not mentioned	Not mentioned	Same

—USDA sets compliance timeline for retailers under state SNAP waivers

Grocery industry welcomes 90-day grace period but says guidance still leaves retailers and consumers unclear on banned items like soda and candy

USDA finally issued long-awaited guidance outlining how retailers must comply with state waivers that restrict certain purchases under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), including bans on products such as candy and soda.

Under the new rules, retailers will have 90 days to comply once a state waiver takes effect. After that window, noncompliant retailers will receive a warning and an additional 30 days to fix violations before risking removal from SNAP. Retailers that lose authorization can later reapply, USDA said.

The guidance arrives just days after the first five states — Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Utah and West Virginia — implemented their waivers on Jan. 1, and after months of pressure from the grocery sector for clearer rules. The Food Industry Association (FMI) said the grace period is critical but warned that uncertainty remains over which products are restricted and how errors will be treated.

FMI is urging USDA and waiver states to validate retailer-developed, UPC-level lists of restricted products and to create clearer, customer-facing materials to prevent confusion at checkout. The group also raised concerns about online and cross-state fulfillment, noting that warehouse-shipped SNAP orders must comply with the restrictions tied to a customer’s EBT card.
 

USDA has approved SNAP waivers for 18 states so far and expects more to follow. FMI said retailers need assurances that penalties — including involuntary withdrawal from SNAP — will be limited to intentional violations, not accidental miscoding across tens of thousands of products.

—Fast food sticker shock

Once a cheap convenience, drive-thru meals now rival sit-down prices — but savvy ordering can still trim the bill

Fast food has quietly crossed a psychological threshold. What was once a reliable budget option now routinely costs $13–$20 per person, with portion sizes largely unchanged. According to ConsumerAffairs and reporting cited by AllRecipes, incremental menu hikes — rather than dramatic single increases — have pushed many chains into sit-down restaurant price territory, leaving longtime customers frustrated over value.

Chains diners say have gotten the most expensive

• Chipotle: A chicken burrito that once hovered around $7.50 now runs $10+, while premium bowls with carne asada and guac can exceed $16. Social media comparisons show homemade versions costing a fraction of in-store prices.

• Five Guys: Known for quality and generous fries, but prices now rival casual dining. A cheeseburger near $13.59, fries around $4.69, and drinks push meals past $20; viral receipts show $50–$60 for two.

•Jack in the Box: Once a late-night value staple, some large combos now approach $16, with customers citing smaller portions alongside higher prices.

•Jersey Mike’s: Regular subs near $12 and “giant” premium subs nearing $20. Fans justify the cost by splitting giants across multiple meals.

•Panda Express: Portions remain hearty, but plates with premium entrées often land near $14, and Bigger Plates can exceed $16.

•Shake Shack: Specialty burgers regularly top $15, and full meals can surpass $25. A consumer pricing study labeled it among the most overpriced fast-food options.

•Wendy’s: Even legacy value players feel pricier. A Baconator combo that once cost $6–$7 now frequently exceeds $13, with critics saying increases outpaced rivals.

How to eat fast food without paying sit-down prices

• Skip the combo: Build your own — a value sandwich, a small side, and water or an app-discounted drink can save $2–$4.

•Hunt for hidden value: Smaller sandwiches, snack wraps, and kids’ sides often still exist — just not on the main boards.

•Time it right: Late-afternoon or late-night app deals, cheaper breakfast menus, and localized mid-week promos can materially cut costs.

Bottom Line: Fast food’s value proposition has shifted, but strategic ordering — and a little patience with apps and timing — can still keep meals closer to their old price point.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Rapid warm-up forecast across much of the Lower 48 today and tomorrow.