RIN Markets Whipsawed by EPA Rulemaking Uncertainty
SCOTUS on Trump trade policy | Trump on USMCA, Iran, Greenland | Gold, silver and copper prices hit new highs
| LINKS |
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 11
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 11
| Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Jan. 14, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— Greer signals ‘continuity first’ strategy as Supreme Court weighs Trump tariffs: USTR Jamieson Greer says the White House has a ready fallback plan (e.g., Sections 232/301/122) to quickly replicate today’s tariff map — same products, exemptions, and architecture — if the Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA tariffs, while keeping other tariff programs (steel/aluminum/autos/lumber) intact.
— Trump warns Iran against executing protesters: The State Department says a detained protester could be executed imminently; Trump threatened “strong action” if Iran proceeds and urged demonstrators to keep protesting, amid reports of thousands killed/arrested and added U.S. military deployments to the region.
— Trump downplays USMCA, says U.S. doesn’t need the trade pact: Trump called USMCA “irrelevant,” reviving uncertainty ahead of the 2026 review window and raising the stakes for North American supply chains and U.S. farm exports heavily reliant on Canada/Mexico demand.
— Trump says U.S. control of Greenland is ‘non-negotiable’ as territory reaffirms ties to Denmark: Trump escalated annexation rhetoric as a national-security/NATO imperative, even as Greenland’s leadership publicly rejected U.S. pressure and top Danish/Greenland officials headed to talks with VP Vance.
— OMB meeting calendar expands again on Treasury’s 45Z Clean Fuel rule: OMB has 16 stakeholder sessions scheduled on Treasury’s 45Z guidance — new meetings include RNG Coalition, Pivot Bio (via FGS Global), ASA, and Gevo — highlighting unresolved fights over feedstocks, lifecycle modeling, eligibility, and investment certainty.
— Trump extends national energy emergency for another year: The administration renewed the national energy emergency first declared Jan. 20, 2025, keeping emergency authorities in place to support actions aimed at boosting domestic output and managing energy supply risks.
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: U.S. futures lower on geopolitics and Japan fiscal-election worries; Asia mixed (Japan higher; China/India lower) and Europe modestly mixed; heavy Fed-speak slate on deck (Paulson, Miran, Bostic, Kashkari, Williams).
— Equities yesterday (Jan. 13 vs. Jan. 12): Stocks fell broadly — Dow -0.80%, S&P 500 -0.19%, Nasdaq -0.10%.
— U.S. producer inflation firms as headline PPI ticks higher: November PPI rose 0.2% m/m; core PPI was flat m/m (cooling), but y/y inflation firmed with headline and core at 3.0%, keeping the annual inflation signal uncomfortably elevated.
— Gold, silver and copper hit new highs as tensions mount: Precious metals surged on safe-haven demand and policy uncertainty, while copper/tin reached fresh peaks on tight supply and strong electrification-driven demand.
— Mortgage rates hit four-month low as policy push spurs demand: MBA shows the 30-year fixed rate fell to 6.18%, driving a big jump in applications (refis +40%); demand also lifted by a Trump order directing Fannie/Freddie to buy $200B in MBS to compress spreads.
AG MARKETS
— USDA daily export sales: 136,000 MT corn to South Korea (2025/26) and 334,000 MT soybeans to China (2025/26).
— China’s 2025 soybean imports hit record: China imported a record 111.83 MMT in 2025 (+6.5% y/y) as buyers front-loaded South American supply amid trade fear; December saw no U.S. arrivals again, but post–late-October truce China has reportedly booked large U.S. volumes for near-term delivery.
— Federal aid lifts 2025 Illinois crop returns, but 2026 outlook remains negative: farmdoc budgets show FBA plus expected ARC/PLC push some 2025 corn/soy rotations near break-even, but 2026 returns revert to losses as costs rise and trend yields return without new aid.
— Agriculture markets yesterday: Corn and soybeans lower; meal down and soybean oil sharply higher; wheat mixed; cattle and feeders higher; hogs slightly higher.
FARM POLICY
— Thompson launches Farm Bill 2.0 talks, eyes February markup: House Ag Chair GT Thompson says he’s starting bipartisan consultations and pledges early text release to members, but CBO scores and political headwinds could slow the path.
— USDA opens 2026 Dairy Margin Coverage enrollment under expanded safety net: Enrollment runs Jan. 12–Feb. 26; OBBBA boosts Tier 1 coverage to 6M lbs, requires a reset production history, and offers a 6-year lock-in with a premium discount.
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Wednesday: Oil prices rally on Iran tension fears: Brent and WTI extended gains for a fifth session as markets price supply-disruption risk tied to Iran unrest and retaliation threats, partially offset by signs of ample supply.
— Tuesday: Oil prices surge on geopolitical risk premium: Crude jumped >2% as unrest in Iran and Trump’s posture added a $3–$4/bbl risk premium, outweighing expectations for more Venezuelan barrels.
— EIA forecasts U.S. crude output decline as oil prices slide through 2026–27: EIA projects U.S. production easing to ~13.6 mbpd (2026) and ~13.3 mbpd (2027) as Brent averages ~$56 then ~$54; WTI ~$52 then ~$50; global supply exceeds demand, inventories build, and gasoline prices drift lower.
— RIN markets whipsawed by EPA rulemaking uncertainty: RINs are trading policy headlines as the market waits on EPA RVO decisions and potential imported-feedstock eligibility; rumors of broader pathways pressure RINs while supporting vegoils, with timing of EPA action still unclear.
— Indonesia delays B50 biodiesel push, raises palm oil export levies: Indonesia sticks with B40 in 2026 due to technical/funding constraints and hikes export levies March 1, easing near-term vegoil tightness concerns and weighing on palm prices.
TRADE POLICY
— China signals canola tariff relief for EV concessions during Carney visit: Beijing may ease curbs on Canadian rapeseed if Ottawa softens tariffs on Chinese EVs; the talks test Canada’s alignment with Washington and move canola/soyoil markets on expectations of renewed flows.
CHINA
— China’s record trade surplus underscores export resilience despite tariffs: China posted a record $1.19T 2025 surplus as exports rose 5.5% and markets diversified away from the U.S.; strong manufacturing offsets weak property/consumption, though economists warn 2026 repeat performance may be tougher.
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
— Beijing vs. BlackRock at the Panama Canal: CK Hutchison’s proposed sale of key Panama Canal terminals to a BlackRock-led consortium has become a U.S.-China flashpoint, complicated by Chinese regulatory scrutiny and a pending Panama Supreme Court review of the underlying port concessions.
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Colder air spreads across the Eastern U.S. today; wintry weather expands Midwest-to-Northeast, with a late-Thursday system expected to bring snow across the Northern Tier.
| TOP STORIES—Greer signals ‘continuity first’ strategy as Supreme Court weighs Trump tariffsUSTR says fallback plan would preserve structure, scope, and deal architecture even if IEEPA tariffs are struck down U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the Trump administration’s contingency planning for a potential Supreme Court loss on tariffs is centered on one word: continuity. In a Jan. 13 interview with the Economist, Greer said that if the Supreme Court overturns the administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China, and other trading partners, the administration would move quickly to replace them with similar duties under other statutes — while preserving as much of the existing tariff structure as possible. “Our goal, if we have to find a way to set up a replacement system, would be to have as much continuity as possible,” Greer said, stressing that the administration wants to maintain which products are tariffed, which are exempt, and the overall architecture of the current program. Fallback authorities, same outcome. Greer reiterated that alternative tools are ready, including Section 232 (national security), Section 301 (unfair trade practices), and Section 122 (temporary balance-of-payments tariffs). While acknowledging these statutes are more administratively complex than IEEPA, he emphasized that the White House has long planned for an adverse court ruling and would act “right away” if needed. Of note: He also underscored that existing non-IEEPA tariffs — including duties on steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber — are not part of the Supreme Court case and would remain untouched. Trade deals stay — but not forever. Greer said current bilateral and sectoral agreements would remain in force even if the tariff authority shifts. But he was blunt that the administration does not view legacy trade deals as binding if they fail to deliver results for U.S. workers or industry. “We shouldn’t be bound to agreements of the past that are 30, 40, 50 years old” if they no longer serve U.S. interests, he said, likening rigid adherence to outdated trade terms to a CEO refusing to exit a bad contract. Diplomacy takes a back seat to domestic impact. Pushing back hard on claims that tariffs have damaged relations with allies, Greer dismissed concerns about foreign officials being “heartbroken,” arguing that prior trade arrangements hollowed out U.S. manufacturing, fueled offshoring, and failed to protect American workers. While acknowledging that other countries have their own industrial strategies, Greer said U.S. policy is unapologetically focused on domestic outcomes — even if that means breaking or sidelining agreements that no longer rebalance trade. Japan cited as cautionary tale. As an example, Greer pointed to the 2019 U.S./Japan trade deal, arguing it failed to reduce a roughly $70 billion bilateral trade deficit. That outcome, he said, justified the administration’s decision to impose global auto tariffs — including on Japanese vehicles — and renegotiate terms from a position of leverage. Bottom Line: Greer’s comments signal that a Supreme Court ruling against IEEPA tariffs would change the legal pathway — but not the administration’s trade posture, tariff levels, or willingness to unwind deals it views as ineffective.—Trump warns Iran against executing protestersWhite House threatens “strong action” as death toll from Iran’s crackdown mounts The U.S. State Dept. said an Iranian protester detained last week could be executed as soon as today, raising the risk of fresh international backlash over Tehran’s escalating crackdown on dissent. A family member of the detainee confirmed the execution threat. President Donald Trump warned Iran against carrying out executions of protesters, saying the United States would take “strong action” in response. Trump also urged demonstrators to continue protesting, telling them that “help is on its way.” According to a U.S.-based human rights group, more than 2,400 protesters have been killed and at least 18,000 people arrested since large-scale anti-regime demonstrations erupted last month, underscoring the severity of the Iranian government’s response and the growing risk of further international confrontation. Of note: Last night, Trump sent F-35s and bombers to the Middle East. —Trump downplays USMCA, says U.S. doesn’t need the trade pactPresident argues North American deal benefits Canada more than the U.S.; casts doubt on renegotiation ahead of review window President Donald Trump on Tuesday sharply criticized the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), saying the United States gains little from the deal and could walk away without consequence. Speaking to reporters during a tour of a Ford Motor Company plant, Trump said the trade agreement — which replaced NAFTA during his first term — primarily advantages Canada, not the U.S. “We have no real advantage with USMCA,” Trump said. “Canada needs it, we don’t. Everybody’s moving here. We don’t need their product.” Pressed on whether he would seek to renegotiate the agreement or allow it to expire, Trump dismissed the issue entirely. “We could have it or not, it wouldn’t matter,” he said. “It’s irrelevant.” USMCA does not expire this year; as part of a mandatory review process, the partners can agree to extend it another 16 years or let it expire after 10. However, withdrawal also is an option – and one Trump has said is on the table. “And we could have it or not,” he said in Michigan. “It wouldn’t matter to me. I think they want it. I don’t really care about it.” Why the comments matter: Trump’s remarks revive uncertainty around North American trade policy just as the USMCA approaches its mandatory 2026 joint review, a process that could lead to updates, extensions, or — if one party objects — a gradual sunset of the pact. While administration officials have previously framed the review as leverage to secure stronger enforcement and manufacturing commitments, Trump’s comments suggest a more confrontational posture. Implications for trade and agriculture. Canada and Mexico remain two of the largest export destinations for U.S. manufactured goods and agricultural products. Any move to let the agreement lapse — or to reintroduce tariffs — would likely disrupt supply chains, raise costs for U.S. manufacturers, and create uncertainty for farmers dependent on cross-border markets for corn, soybeans, beef, pork, dairy, and specialty crops. For now, no formal steps have been announced to withdraw from or renegotiate the pact. But Trump’s blunt dismissal signals that USMCA could become a bargaining chip in broader trade and industrial policy debates heading into the review window. —Trump says U.S. control of Greenland is ‘non-negotiable’ as territory reaffirms ties to DenmarkPresident argues annexation is vital to national security and NATO strength, even as Greenland’s leaders publicly reject U.S. pressure President Donald Trump escalated his rhetoric on Greenland, declaring that anything short of U.S. control of the territory is “unacceptable.” Speaking Wednesday, Trump reiterated his long-held view that annexing Greenland is essential for American national security and argued that NATO would be “far more formidable and effective” if Greenland were under U.S. jurisdiction. Trump suggested NATO “should be leading the way” in securing U.S. control of the strategically located Arctic territory, underscoring how central Greenland has become to his administration’s security and geopolitical narrative. The comments came just hours before the foreign ministers of Denmark and Greenland were scheduled to meet with U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance at the White House, raising diplomatic stakes ahead of already sensitive talks. Despite mounting pressure from Washington, Greenland’s leadership has forcefully rejected the idea of coming under U.S. control. In a pointed public rebuke Tuesday, Greenland Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen said that if forced to choose, “we choose Denmark.” Standing alongside Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in Copenhagen, Nielsen added that Greenland chooses NATO, the Kingdom of Denmark, and the European Union. Greenland is a self-governing territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, and its leaders have consistently emphasized their lack of interest in U.S. annexation — even as Trump frames the issue as a strategic imperative for American and allied security. —OMB meeting calendar expands again on Treasury’s 45Z Clean Fuel ruleStakeholder engagement intensifies as biofuels, ag groups line up sessions ahead of key decisions Meetings continue to pile up at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) as the Biden administration moves closer to finalizing Treasury’s proposed guidance for the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit. According to the latest public schedule, 16 meetings are now on the books at OMB related to the proposed rule sent over by the Treasury Dept. — with several new sessions clustered next week, underscoring the growing intensity of last-minute lobbying. Newly added meetings include:• Jan. 21: RNG Coalition•Jan. 22: FGS Global, on behalf of Pivot Bio•Jan. 23: American Soybean Association and Gevo Inc. The expanding docket adds to an already crowded slate of sessions involving ethanol producers, biodiesel interests, carbon intensity modelers, and farm-state groups — all seeking clarity or changes to how 45Z will treat feedstocks, lifecycle emissions, and eligibility pathways. Why it matters: The surge in OMB meetings signals unresolved pressure points in the rulemaking process, particularly around how Treasury balances climate objectives with farm income, biofuel competitiveness, and investment certainty. With multiple ag and renewable fuel constituencies still pushing their case, the final shape — and timing — of the 45Z guidance remains closely watched across commodity, energy, and tax-policy circles. —Trump extends national energy emergency for another yearWhite House says energy conditions still pose a threat to U.S. security, economy President Donald Trump ordered a one-year extension of the national energy emergency first declared at the start of his current term, citing ongoing risks to U.S. national security, foreign policy and economic stability. The White House published a notice in the Federal Register (link) confirming that the emergency, initially declared on Jan. 20, 2025, will remain in effect beyond its original expiration date of Jan. 20, 2026. In an executive order (link) signed Jan. 12, the administration said the underlying conditions “continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat” to the United States, warranting continuation of the emergency authorities. The designation has given the administration broad flexibility to act aimed at boosting domestic energy output and managing supply risks. Since the emergency was declared, it has served as a legal foundation for a range of energy-related moves, reinforcing the administration’s push to expand U.S. production and insulate the economy from global energy disruptions. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: U.S. equity futures are moderately lower due to ongoing geopolitical angst and growing concerns about Japan’s fiscal situation ahead of snap elections announced for February. In Asia, Japan +1.5%. Hong Kong +0.6%. China -0.3%. India -0.3%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.3%. Paris +0.2%. Frankfurt -0.3%. Fed Speak: Paulson (9:50 a.m. ET), Miran (10:00 a.m. ET), Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET), Kashkari (12:00 p.m. ET), Williams (2:10 p.m. ET).
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Jan. 13 | Point Difference from Jan. 12 | % Difference from Jan. 12 |
| Dow | 49,191.99 | -398.21 | -0.80% |
| Nasdaq | 23,709.87 | -24.03 | -0.10% |
| S&P 500 | 6,963.74 | -13.53 | -0.19% |
—U.S. producer inflation firms as headline PPI ticks higher
Annual price pressures build even as core monthly gains cool sharply
U.S. producer prices rose 0.2% month over month in November 2025, up from a 0.1% increase in October and in line with expectations, according to delayed data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Beneath the surface, inflation momentum was mixed. Core PPI, which strips out food and energy, was flat on the month, a sharp deceleration from October’s 0.3% gain and below forecasts for a 0.2% increase — suggesting easing near-term price pressures for producers.
On a year-over-year basis, however, inflation firmed. Headline PPI accelerated to 3.0% from 2.8%, topping expectations of 2.7%, while core PPI also edged up to 3.0% from 2.9%, likewise exceeding forecasts. The divergence points to cooling monthly momentum but persistently elevated annual inflation, keeping pressure on the broader inflation outlook.
—Gold, silver and copper prices hit new highs as global tensions mount
Tin also reaches fresh peak as metals extend recent strong run amid geopolitical risk and supply concerns
Global metals markets have pushed deeper into record territory, with gold, silver and copper prices climbing to unprecedented levels as escalating geopolitical tensions and concerns over supply constraints continue to roil investor sentiment.
Gold is around $4,645 per troy ounce and silver around $91.99 per troy ounce.
Precious metals surge as safe-haven demand grows. Gold and silver — traditionally viewed as safe-haven assets — have soared to all-time highs, buoyed by mounting international tensions, bets on future interest rate cuts and persistent uncertainty in financial markets. Investor flight toward hard assets has accelerated as geopolitical flashpoints and central bank policy ambiguity deepen.
Gold’s rally has been driven in part by expectations of slower monetary tightening in the United States, a weaker U.S. dollar, and heightened risk aversion among global investors. Silver, which combines safe-haven appeal with industrial demand, has also benefited from these dynamics, pushing its price higher alongside gold.
Industrial metals extend rally. Industrial metals have not been left behind. Copper prices climbed to new record highs, reflecting not just broader market bullishness but also underlying supply concerns and strong demand fundamentals. Production disruptions at major mines and logistical bottlenecks — coupled with global demand tied to infrastructure and green energy transitions — have tightened supply, fueling further price gains.
Besides copper’s run, tin prices also reached fresh peak levels, underscoring the strength of the rally across a wide spectrum of base and precious metals.
Geopolitical and market drivers. Analysts point to a convergence of geopolitical risk factors — including heightened tensions in the Middle East and apprehension over central bank independence — as core drivers behind the metals rally. The increased appeal of safe assets like gold and silver aligns with broader investor caution amid uncertain policy environments and potential disruptions to capital markets.
Simultaneously, industrial metals such as copper have benefited from robust demand linked to electrification and decarbonization trends, as well as concerns that supply will struggle to keep pace with long-term growth in demand.
Market Outlook: With major metals benchmarks extending their strong runs, market watchers are closely monitoring geopolitical developments and supply/demand fundamentals for signs of continuation or reversal. While safe-haven flows may sustain precious metals, industrial metals’ trajectories hinge on supply growth and infrastructure investment trends worldwide.
—Mortgage rates hit four-month low as policy push spurs demand
MBA data show 30-year fixed rate falls to 6.18%, fueling sharp rebound in refinancing and home-purchase activity
U.S. mortgage rates continued their early-year slide, with the average contract rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage on conforming loans ($806,500 or less) falling to 6.18% in the week ending Jan. 9 — the lowest level since September 2024, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The decline marks the fourth straight weekly drop.
The rate move translated quickly into demand. Total mortgage applications jumped 28.5%, led by a 40.1% surge in refinancing, while purchase applications rose 15.9%, signaling renewed buyer interest as borrowing costs eased.
MBA economists attributed the shift to a mix of typical post-holiday volatility and a more durable policy catalyst. President Donald Trump ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, a move aimed at compressing spreads and pushing mortgage rates lower.
Bottom Line: A combination of easing spreads and direct federal intervention has delivered the lowest mortgage rates in four months, unlocking pent-up refinancing demand and offering tentative relief to would-be homebuyers.
| AG MARKETS |
—USDA daily export sales:
• 136,000 MT corn to South Korea for 2025/26
•334,000 MT soybeans to China for 2025/26
—China’s 2025 soybean imports hit record as trade fears drive South American buying
Front-loaded purchases from Brazil and Argentina lifted imports to an all-time high, as Chinese buyers hedged against prolonged trade tensions with Washington
China imported a record 111.83 million metric tons of soybeans in 2025, up 6.5% year over year, as buyers accelerated purchases from South America to guard against potential supply disruptions tied to the China/U.S. trade dispute.
According to customs data released Wednesday, concentrated shipments from major producers including Brazil and Argentina drove a sharp rise in imports during the first half of the year, lifting annual volumes to a new high. Analysts said uncertainty surrounding access to U.S. supplies during the escalation of trade tensions in the second and third quarters prompted Chinese crushers and traders to bring forward large-scale South American purchases.
December arrivals totaled 8.04 million tons, up 1.3% from a year earlier and broadly in line with market expectations, though down 0.9% from November. December marked the third straight month with no U.S. soybean imports, reflecting earlier tariff deterrents. Delays in customs clearance also slowed inbound flows, forcing some crushing plants to suspend operations or limit deliveries amid spot supply tightness.
Looking ahead, analysts expect arrivals to ease early in 2026, with forecasts of 7.48 million tons in January and 5.2 million tons in February as inventories tighten seasonally.
Beijing has, however, stepped up U.S. soybean purchases following a late-October trade truce with Washington. By early last week, traders estimated China had bought nearly 10 million tons of U.S. beans — up to 80% of a 12-million-ton pledge cited by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for delivery by the end of February. China’s state stockpiler has also held four auctions since December, widely seen as an effort to clear storage capacity ahead of expected U.S. shipments.
—Federal aid lifts 2025 Illinois crop returns, but 2026 outlook remains negative
Updated farmdoc budgets show Farmer Bridge Assistance and ARC/PLC payments push some 2025 corn/soy returns near break-even, while 2026 projections point to continued losses without additional support
Revised Illinois crop budgets show a modestly improved financial outlook for the 2025 crop year, driven largely by federal assistance rather than market strength. According to the farmdoc analysis (link), slightly higher price projections combined with payments from the new Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program and expected ARC/PLC support lift projected 2025 returns for corn and soybeans across all regions of Illinois. In northern and central Illinois, average corn/soybean rotations move to near or slightly above break-even, though southern Illinois remains in negative territory.
The farmdoc authors emphasize that without the FBA and anticipated ARC/PLC payments, 2025 returns would still be decisively negative. For example, on high-productivity cash-rented farmland in central Illinois, combined FBA and ARC/PLC support is projected at roughly $94 per acre, flipping returns from a loss to a modest gain.
Looking ahead to 2026, the outlook deteriorates again. Despite marginally higher price assumptions — corn at $4.25 per bushel and soybeans at $10.40 — production costs are expected to rise and yields revert to trend levels. As a result, average corn returns are projected to be negative across all Illinois regions, while soybean returns are only slightly positive in northern and central Illinois and remain negative in the south. Break-even prices needed to cover full costs are well above current market prices, underscoring the likelihood of continued financial pressure.
The analysis concludes that 2026 conditions closely resemble 2025 projections before emergency aid was added, suggesting that absent stronger prices or further ad hoc assistance, Illinois farmers face another year of below-average profitability and ongoing calls for federal support.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Jan. 13 | Change from Jan. 12 |
| Corn | March | $4.19 3/4 | -1 3/4¢ |
| Soybeans | March | $10.38 3/4 | -10 1/4¢ |
| Soybean Meal | March | $291.60 | -$6.70 |
| Soybean Oil | March | 51.20¢ | +93 points |
| Wheat (SRW) | March | $5.10 1/2 | -3/4¢ |
| Wheat (HRW) | March | $5.19 1/2 | -7 1/4¢ |
| Spring Wheat | March | $5.66 1/2 | +3/4¢ |
| Cotton | March | 64.88¢ | -3 points |
| Live Cattle | February | $237.25 | +$2.00 |
| Feeder Cattle | March | $362.175 | +$5.95 |
| Lean Hogs | February | $84.625 | +20¢ |
| FARM POLICY |
—Thompson launches Farm Bill 2.0 talks, eyes February markup
House Ag chair begins bipartisan consultations as budget scores and political headwinds loom
House Ag Committee Chair GT Thompson (R-Pa.) says he has begun discussions with committee members on a “farm bill 2.0,” aiming for a committee markup as soon as February, according to Politico.
Thompson said he has pledged to provide full legislative text to members on both sides of the aisle well ahead of any markup, giving lawmakers time to thoroughly review the proposal. He has previously indicated that most of the policy language is largely complete, with the committee now awaiting budget scores from the Congressional Budget Office.
Despite the push to move quickly, the path forward remains uncertain. A crowded legislative calendar and the potential for resistance from both conservative Republicans and Democrats — depending on final policy and funding details — could complicate efforts to advance the bill beyond committee.
—USDA opens 2026 Dairy Margin Coverage enrollment under expanded farm safety net
Producers can sign up through Feb. 26 as OBBBA boosts Tier 1 protection and resets production history
USDA has opened enrollment for the 2026 Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program, giving dairy producers access to a key safety-net option designed to help offset swings between milk prices and feed costs.
Enrollment runs Jan. 12 through Feb. 26, 2026. The program was reauthorized and expanded under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed into law by Donald Trump on July 4, 2025, extending DMC through 2031 and making several structural changes.
What’s New for 2026
•Higher Tier 1 coverage: The top Tier 1 protection threshold increases from 5 million to 6 million pounds of production, expanding the amount of milk eligible for the program’s most favorable premiums.
•Reset production history: All operations enrolling in 2026 must establish a new production history.
- Existing operations (marketing milk on or before Jan. 1, 2023) will use the highest of their 2021, 2022, or 2023 milk marketings.
- New operations (starting after Jan. 1, 2023) will base history on their first year of monthly marketings, even if partial.
• Documentation required: Milk marketing statements or other production evidence must be provided to set production history.
• Long-term option: Producers may lock in coverage for six years (2026–2031) and receive a 25% discount on premium fees.
Coverage choices. DMC offers multiple coverage levels, including a no-premium option (aside from a $100 administrative fee). USDA encourages producers to use its online dairy decision tool to evaluate which coverage level best fits their operation.
Bottom Line: With expanded Tier 1 coverage and a reset production baseline, the 2026 enrollment offers producers a chance to reassess risk protection under a more generous DMC framework.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Wednesday: Oil prices rally on Iran tension fears
Market jitters over possible U.S./Iran conflict lift crude for a fifth straight session amid supply disruption risks
Oil prices climbed for a fifth consecutive session Wednesday as traders priced in the risk of disruptions to Iranian crude flows amid escalating political unrest and threats of military action.
Brent futures rose about 1.4% to around $66.39 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained roughly 1.4% to about $62.02 a barrel by late morning in Europe.
Heightened geopolitical tension — including Iranian warnings that it could strike U.S. military bases in the region if attacked — and U.S. commentary encouraging protests have driven concerns that instability could tighten global oil balances and add a geopolitical risk premium to prices. Citi analysts raised their Brent outlook toward $70 a barrel over the next three months on these risks, even though unrest has not yet hit Iran’s main oil-producing areas.
Meanwhile, the rally has been tempered by signs of ample supply: U.S. crude and product stocks showed large builds in recent API data, and Venezuela has begun reversing prior production cuts with crude exports resuming under a new supply arrangement.
—Tuesday: Oil Prices Surge on Geopolitical Risk Premium
Crude Climbs Over 2% as Iran Unrest and Trump Policy Stance Prop Up Market
Oil prices jumped more than 2% Tuesday, with Brent crude up about 2.5% to $65.47 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising roughly 2.8% to $61.15, as traders priced in heightened geopolitical risk that could disrupt Iranian crude supplies.
Market attention has shifted toward global political risks — particularly escalating unrest in Iran — which analysts say are adding roughly $3–$4 per barrel in geopolitical risk premium to crude.
In Iran, widespread anti-government protests — some of the most severe in years — and a brutal crackdown have raised fears of supply interruptions from one of OPEC’s key producers. U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran, urged protesters to intensify demonstrations, and called off diplomatic talks, further underscoring market unease over future crude flows.
Those supply concerns have overshadowed expectations that Venezuelan crude exports may return, which could add barrels to the market and limit price advances.
Additional volatility stems from incidents involving oil tankers struck near Russia’s Black Sea export routes, reinforcing broader supply-risk sentiment across key producing regions.
—EIA forecasts U.S. crude output decline as oil prices slide through 2026–27
Lower global oil prices and oversupply outlook prompt EIA to project a modest fall in U.S. production and gasoline prices, with global supply outpacing demand through 2027
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook projects that U.S. crude oil production will ease to about 13.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, roughly 1% lower than 2025, and further slip to 13.3 million bpd in 2027 as weaker crude prices dampen drilling activity. This marks a reversal from recent years of growth and reflects expectations that lower prices will offset productivity gains in many U.S. basins.
EIA’s forecasts hinge on a global oil market where supply outstrips demand, causing inventories to build and pushing Brent crude prices to average about $56 per barrel in 2026 and $54 in 2027 — down roughly 19% from 2025. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is expected to average about $52 per barrel in 2026 and $50 in 2027, down from around $65 in 2025.
Global crude oil production is also seen rising, with an increase of about 1.4 million bpd in 2026 and another 0.5 million bpd in 2027, driven initially by OPEC+ growth and later by non-OPEC producers. EIA’s forecasts assume current sanctions on Venezuela remain in place through 2027, but note that China will continue significant strategic crude stockpiling—albeit at a slightly lower pace in 2027.
On the consumer side, the outlook anticipates U.S. gasoline prices averaging about $2.92 per gallon in 2026, down about 18 cents from 2025, and edging up to around $2.95 per gallon in 2027 as lower crude costs partly offset other market dynamics.
—RIN markets whipsawed by EPA rulemaking uncertainty
Traders await clarity on RVO levels and imported feedstock eligibility as policy signals — not fuel demand — set prices
Renewable Identification Number (RIN) markets are being driven less by biofuel consumption trends and more by regulatory uncertainty, as traders wait for the Environmental Protection Agency to clarify the next phase of Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) rulemaking.
At the center of the market’s unease is the EPA’s pending decision on an expanded Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) and possible changes to compliance rules. With no formal guidance yet, RIN prices have remained volatile and elevated, reflecting risk premiums tied to policy outcomes rather than underlying fuel or blending economics.
A particularly sensitive issue is whether the EPA will allow full RIN generation for imported green diesel feedstocks, including canola, tallow, and used cooking oil (UCO). Market rumors suggest such a move is under consideration. If approved, the change would amount to an implicit subsidy of roughly $1.15 per gallon for imported feedstocks, reshaping competitive dynamics and raising concerns among domestic biofuel and oilseed producers. EPA proposed cutting RIN values in half for fuel produced from imported feedstocks.
So far, market behavior reflects these expectations. RIN values have come under pressure on the prospect of expanded compliance supply, while vegetable oil markets — led by soybean oil and palm oil — have been supported by anticipated increases in renewable fuel demand. The result has been a divergence between weakening RIN prices and strengthening feedstock values.
However, analysts caution that the rally in renewable feedstocks may be nearing a ceiling. Without a formal EPA announcement, further gains are likely limited. Confirmation of a larger RVO would lock in higher feedstock demand but could simultaneously push RIN prices lower as additional compliance pathways enter the market.
Timing is now critical. Some reports note February is emerging as a key window for EPA action while others say no timeline is available currently. Until regulatory clarity arrives, RIN markets are expected to remain headline driven. Traders appear reluctant to take aggressive positions, leaving prices vulnerable to abrupt swings on policy news. However, EPA has not sent the final RVO nor the plan on reallocating volumes waived due to SREs to OMB for review.
Bottom Line: RIN pricing is a policy trade, not a fundamentals trade. Until the EPA resolves questions around RVO levels and imported feedstock eligibility, volatility will persist — with downside risk if compliance options are broadened, and upside potential only if regulators delay or narrow their proposed changes.
—Indonesia delays B50 biodiesel push, raises palm oil export levies
Technical and funding hurdles keep the fuel mandate at B40 in 2026, while higher export taxes pressure palm oil prices and ease global vegoil supply concerns
Indonesia will not implement a mandatory B50 biodiesel blend this year, opting to remain at the current B40 level due to technical and financing constraints, government officials said. The B50 plan — requiring fuel to contain 50% palm-oil-based biodiesel — had been slated for the second half of 2026.
“This year, it will stay at B40,” Deputy Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Yuliot Tanjung said, following an interagency meeting. The shelved move would have absorbed an additional 2 million metric tons of crude palm oil on top of the 13.6 MMT used in 2025. Officials said prospects for B50 in 2027 will hinge on the price spread between conventional diesel and palm-based fuel.
Meanwhile, Indonesia will raise its crude palm oil export levy to 12.5% from 10% starting March 1, while levies on refined products will increase by 2.5 percentage points from a current 4.75%–9.5% range.
Market impact: The twin decisions weighed on palm oil futures and are expected to temper biofuel-driven demand growth, easing near-term concerns about tight global vegetable oil supplies.
| TRADE POLICY |
—China signals canola tariff relief in exchange for EV concessions during Carney visit
Beijing floats easing curbs on Canadian rapeseed as it presses Ottawa to soften tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, testing Canada’s trade alignment with Washington
China is preparing to offer limited relief on restrictions affecting Canadian canola exports if Ottawa agrees to relax its tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, according to people familiar with the matter. The proposal is expected to be raised during this week’s visit to China by Mark Carney, his first trip to the country as prime minister and the first by a Canadian leader in more than eight years, Bloomberg News reported.
Chinese officials plan to frame any easing of rapeseed (canola) curbs as part of a broader trade discussion that could also include reductions in levies on other Chinese industrial products. Canadian officials, speaking on background, said they hope the talks can lower trade tensions but cautioned that a swift deal on EV tariffs is unlikely, according to Bloomberg.
Markets reacted quickly to the prospect of renewed trade flows. Canadian canola futures climbed as much as 2.8% on Tuesday, the strongest gain in three weeks, while soybean oil prices also rose sharply. In China, rapeseed meal futures have fallen more than 4% since mid-last week, signaling expectations of increased supply.
The backdrop is a sharp deterioration in bilateral agricultural trade. China imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products in retaliation for Ottawa’s 2024 decision — under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — to slap a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs, along with duties on aluminum and steel. The measures were designed to protect domestic manufacturing and align Canada with U.S. trade policy. Beijing’s response effectively shut down a trade that had been worth about C$4.9 billion ($3.5 billion) in 2024, when China was Canada’s second-largest destination for canola exports, Bloomberg reported.
Any rollback on EV restrictions would be politically sensitive in Canada. Automakers and provincial leaders, including Ontario Premier Doug Ford, have publicly opposed easing barriers on Chinese vehicles. At the same time, Canadian farmers have pushed aggressively for relief from agricultural tariffs that have hammered oilseed exports.
The talks also carry broader geopolitical weight. The Trump administration has pressed both Canada and Mexico to tighten defenses against Chinese imports ahead of a review of North America’s trade agreement, adding another layer of pressure as Ottawa weighs Beijing’s overture. President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned allies against opening their markets to Chinese EVs.
Carney is expected to arrive in Beijing on Wednesday and meet President Xi Jinping on Friday. His office said discussions will cover trade, agriculture, energy and international security, and that several documents are expected to be signed, though details remain confidential amid ongoing negotiations.
| CHINA |
—China’s record trade surplus underscores export resilience despite tariffs
Manufacturing strength and market diversification keep exports driving growth, even as domestic demand lags
China posted a record $1.19 trillion trade surplus in 2025, defying expectations that renewed U.S. tariffs would meaningfully slow its export engine. Exports rose 5.5% year over year, while imports rebounded late in the year, highlighting the durability of China’s manufacturing base even as its property market and consumer confidence remained weak.
What’s driving the surplus:
• Market diversification: Shipments to the U.S. fell 20%, but exporters offset the hit by expanding elsewhere—exports rose 13% to Southeast Asia, 8.4% to the EU, 7.4% to Latin America, and 26% to Africa.
•Global demand tailwinds: AI-related investment and steady global growth supported external demand.
• Price competitiveness: Ongoing producer-price deflation made Chinese goods more attractive abroad.
• Supply-chain stickiness: Even as assembly shifts to countries like Vietnam or Mexico, many supply chains still rely on Chinese components and equipment.
Monthly snapshot
• December exports grew 6.6% y/y (up from 5.9% in November).
• Imports increased 5.7% y/y, reversing a prior decline.
• December’s trade surplus came in at $114.1 billion, above forecasts.
Economic implications. Strong exports helped propel growth last year, easing pressure on Beijing to pivot decisively toward consumption-led expansion—an outcome some economists expected after Donald Trump returned to the White House. Analysts increasingly describe China’s economy as two-track: manufacturing and exports are powering growth, while real estate and household demand lag.
Geopolitical and policy context. The expanding global trade imbalance is raising concerns abroad — particularly in Europe — about a surge of low-priced Chinese goods. The International Monetary Fund has warned that China is too large to rely on exports as its primary growth engine.
Looking ahead: Economists caution that replicating 2025’s export performance in 2026 may be harder. Order frontloading during last year’s tariff uncertainty boosted shipments, and Beijing has begun phasing out export tax rebates for oversupplied sectors like solar products and batteries. Still, many expect China’s export competitiveness to remain resilient amid steady global demand and a tentative U.S./China tariff truce.
| TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS |
—Beijing vs. BlackRock at the Panama Canal: Geopolitics, trade wars, and the battle for strategic ports
A multibillion-dollar port sale stokes U.S./China tensions as the Panama Canal becomes a pivot in Washington’s hemispheric strategy — and Beijing pushes back against perceived loss of influence
A high-stakes confrontation over control of strategic port facilities at the Panama Canal has emerged as a flashpoint in broader U.S./China geopolitical rivalry — one that could define influence in the Western Hemisphere for years to come. At the center of this dispute is a contentious deal involving Hong Kong-based conglomerate CK Hutchison Holdings, a Wall Street-led investor consortium, Beijing’s regulators and diplomats, Panama’s judiciary, and the White House under President Donald Trump.
The deal that sparked a geopolitical fight. In early 2025, CK Hutchison agreed in principle to sell a portfolio of global port assets — including two of the most important port terminals at each end of the Panama Canal (Balboa on the Pacific and Cristóbal on the Atlantic) — to a consortium led by U.S. asset management giant BlackRock, along with partners such as Global Infrastructure Partners and Terminal Investment Limited, for roughly $22.8–$23 billion.
For Washington, the transaction wasn’t just a big private equity play. Trump publicly framed it as part of a broader effort to reduce Chinese influence in a region the U.S. considers its strategic backyard — sometimes invoking rhetoric about “taking back” the Panama Canal that Panama and Beijing both denied factually.
Beijing’s pushback. Chinese authorities quickly signaled deep unease. Beijing initiated regulatory scrutiny of the deal through its State Administration for Market Regulation and raised legal concerns, effectively delaying final signing and insisting that any transaction satisfy national security and competition standards. Beijing also signaled support for having its state-owned shipping giant COSCO included as a significant investor in the transaction, seeking a meaningful stake in the port assets rather than seeing them pass wholly into Western control.
Pro-Beijing media and commentators in Hong Kong blasted the sale as a betrayal and warned that anti-trust and security reviews could be used to block or reshape the transaction, contributing to a slide in CK Hutchison’s share price at the time.
Panama’s complications. Adding another layer of complexity, Panama’s comptroller general raised legal challenges to the underlying concession granted to CK Hutchison for the ports, which Panama’s Supreme Court is now reviewing. Should the court annul the concession, Panama could re-open the bidding or assert more control over the terminals — a move that would reassure Washington but likely infuriate Beijing, which views its commercial ties to the region as key to its broader Belt and Road and influence strategies.
U.S. strategic leverage. The Trump administration has been more explicit in linking the fate of the Panama Canal port deal to its broader hemispheric strategy. Recent U.S. diplomatic engagements — including naval visits and security cooperation statements with Panama — highlight Washington’s desire to limit Chinese economic and strategic footholds near the Canal.
Predictive markets and political analysts have begun factoring the canal dispute into expectations for future U.S./China negotiations, especially with high-level meetings anticipated between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. Some observers see Beijing’s resistance not simply as commercial protectionism but as a bargaining chip in the ongoing trade and geopolitical standoff.
What’s at stake: The Panama Canal remains one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, moving roughly 5 % of global seaborne trade. Control or influence over its key port terminals has outsized implications for national security, trade flows and geostrategic positioning. The outcome of this deal — and the legal and diplomatic processes surrounding it — could send signals far beyond Panama, shaping how infrastructure investments are contested between great powers in the coming decade.
Of note: Panama’s Supreme Court has not yet issued a decision on the legal challenge to CK Hutchison’s port concession at the Panama Canal, but a ruling is widely expected in the near term. The court is reviewing cases filed by Panama’s comptroller general and others seeking to annul or reopen the 25-year concession covering the Balboa and Cristóbal ports. The outcome is pivotal: striking down the contract would likely force a rebidding process and complicate the stalled BlackRock deal, while upholding it would preserve the status quo but keep geopolitical and commercial tensions unresolved.
In sum, the battle over CK Hutchison’s Panama Canal port sale is far from a simple corporate transaction. It has become a geopolitical crucible — Beijing and BlackRock, Panama’s courts, and Washington’s hemispheric ambitions all locked in a high-stakes contest that could redefine strategic infrastructure ownership in Latin America.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Cold weather arrives over the Eastern U.S. today; wintry weather to spread from the Midwest into the Northeast… …System late Thursday to produce snow along the Northern Tier.
