Shock to Farm Bureau: Spending Bills Advance Without Farm Aid or Biofuel Add-Ons

Bessent: China completes initial 12 MMT U.S. soybean purchase commitment 

LINKS

Link: Latest News, Jan. 20: Trump Shrugs Off EU Retaliation Risk Over 
          Greenland as Tariff Tensions Rise

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 16
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 16
 

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Jan. 21, 2026

UP FRONT

TOP STORIES 
 

— Spending bills advance without farm aid or E15: House sends FY 2026 funding to the Senate without additional ag aid or year-round E15, leaving both priorities unresolved ahead of the Jan. 30 CR deadline.
— Farm Bureau warns of prolonged farm crisis as aid, e15 left out of spending bills: Zippy Duvall urges Congress to expand bridge support for farmers, citing rising bankruptcies and consolidation risks

— Farm Bureau: farm costs keep climbing into 2026 as federal aid falls short of breakeven: USDA cost projections show rising per-acre expenses across all major crops, leaving producers facing another year of losses despite bridge assistance

— Trump arrives in Davos amid Greenland and tariff tensions: A delayed arrival after Air Force One trouble doesn’t slow Trump’s push on Greenland, tariffs, and global power dynamics, drawing sharp European pushback.

— Bessent signals continued China talks: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calls Davos meetings with Vice Premier He Lifeng “positive,” with more talks planned as focus shifts to enforcing existing deals.

— USTR Greer tees up pre-Xi meeting talks: Jamieson Greer says the U.S. may meet China ahead of an April Trump/Xi summit, prioritizing “non-sensitive” trade while deferring tougher issues.

— U.S./EU tariff standoff threatens $100B in exports: EU retaliation options loom as suspended duties could snap back Feb. 7 if Trump follows through on Greenland-linked tariffs.

— Trump says Panama Canal control is ‘on the table’: The president openly floats reclaiming the canal, reviving treaty, trade, and diplomatic concerns tied to global shipping routes.

— Trump plans travel blitz ahead of midterms: Weekly domestic travel will highlight affordability, manufacturing, and farm and energy policy as Republicans defend narrow majorities.

— Arctic blast fuels historic natgas rally: Extreme cold risks and potential Texas freeze-offs push U.S. natural gas toward its biggest weekly gain in 35+ years.
 

FINANCIAL MARKETS
 

— Equities today: Market stress remains elevated after a global bond selloff, with gold bid and stocks cautious ahead of Trump’s Davos speech.

— Equities yesterday: U.S. stocks posted sharp losses, led by tech, as volatility surged and bond markets unraveled.

— Supreme Court to hear Trump/Fed case: Justices will weigh Trump’s attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a case with major implications for Fed independence.

— Lutnick predicts 5%+ growth: Commerce Secretary says early-2026 growth could exceed 5% and reach 6% if rate cuts materialize.

AG MARKETS
 

— USDA export sales: USDA reports new MY 2025/26 corn sales to Colombia and unknown destinations.

— China completes 12 MMT soybean purchase: Beijing fulfills its first tranche under a four-year deal, easing doubts over compliance.

— China lifts Brazil poultry ban: Beijing ends an 18-month ban tied to Newcastle disease, reopening a key export channel for Brazil.

— Brazil crop expansion pressures U.S. producers: Record soy output, cotton export dominance, and safrinha corn timing keep Brazil central to global markets.

— Ag markets yesterday: Grains mostly lower, livestock mixed, as macro volatility weighs on prices.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
 

— Oil slips Wednesday: Crude eases as traders weigh expected U.S. inventory builds against Kazakh outages and Greenland-linked geopolitical risk.

— Oil climbed Tuesday: Prices rose ~1.5% on Kazakhstan supply disruptions and stronger China data.
 

— Venezuela receives first oil proceeds: Caracas gets ~$300M from a U.S.-arranged sale as Washington seizes another sanctioned tanker.

TRADE POLICY
 

— Daines presses India on pulse crops: Sen. Steve Daines urges improved access for U.S. pulse farmers as U.S./India trade talks restart.

CONGRESS
 

— House advances two-track FY 2026 plan: Leadership pushes final spending packages despite razor-thin margins, aiming for Senate action before Jan. 30.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS
 

— California GOP seeks SCOTUS block of Prop. 50 maps: Republicans ask the Court to halt new redistricting lines amid election-timing concerns.

— Maryland panel advances all-Democratic map: Governor-appointed commission backs a map that could give Democrats all eight House seats.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Lake-effect snow and dangerously cold Arctic air spread across the Great Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes region.
 

TOP STORIES — Spending bills advance without farm aid or biofuel add-onsHouse moves FY 2026 packages to the Senate, leaving ag aid and E15 unresolved House Republicans are moving ahead this week with procedural steps on the final four FY 2026 spending bills, aiming to clear them out of the chamber and send them to the Senate before the current continuing resolution expires on Jan. 30. But the packages headed for passage, as we alerted Tuesday, do not include long-sought provisions for additional agricultural aid or year-round sales of E15 fuel. Lawmakers from both parties had floated separate agricultural assistance proposals, yet neither made it into the last tranche of spending bills. Likewise, a bipartisan push to authorize year-round E15 sales — which had gained support from both biofuel groups and refiners — was ultimately excluded from the Defense, Labor-HHS-Education, Transportation-HUD and Homeland Security measures released Tuesday. With those issues left out of the House spending plans, supporters of farm aid and E15 are now looking for an alternative legislative vehicle as FY 2026 funding negotiations move to the Senate. (See Congress section for details.)  — Farm Bureau warns of prolonged farm crisis as aid, e15 left out of spending billsZippy Duvall urges Congress to expand bridge support for farmers, citing rising bankruptcies and consolidation risks American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall warned that U.S. farmers face another punishing year unless Congress moves quickly to expand bridge support programs and advance year-round E15 fuel sales. Duvall said new Farm Bureau analysis (see next item) shows the economic downturn in farm country is likely to persist, with climbing bankruptcies and accelerating consolidation if markets fail to improve. While acknowledging recent congressional aid, he stressed it falls short of what’s needed to stabilize producers who lack control over commodity prices and face soaring input costs. He also highlighted bipartisan assurances that more assistance is needed and pointed to broad support for year-round E15 as a “win-win” for farmers and consumers by boosting corn and sorghum demand while lowering fuel prices. However, Duvall said it was “a shock” that House spending bill text omitted both farm aid expansion and E15 provisions, despite months of expectations they would be included. He urged lawmakers to act before final passage, arguing failure would not only harm farmers but undermine food security for American families. “The importance of including a lifeline for farmers … cannot be overstated,” Duvall said, calling continued inaction a risk to the nation’s food supply. — Farm Bureau: farm costs keep climbing into 2026 as federal aid falls short of breakevenUSDA cost projections show rising per-acre expenses across all major crops, leaving producers facing another year of losses despite bridge assistance  U.S. farmers are heading into 2026 with production costs still rising and commodity prices insufficient to cover expenses, extending a financial squeeze that began after 2021, according to analysis (link) by Farm Bureau economist Faith Parum, Ph.D. drawing on USDA data.  Data from the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) December update to Commodity Costs and Returns show that average total per-acre production costs are projected to increase for all nine principal row crops in 2026 — corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, rice, barley, oats, peanuts and sorghum — by roughly 2.2% to 3.3%.    When operating expenses and farm-level overhead such as land, equipment and management are combined, ERS estimates 2025 total costs per acre at approximately $1,308 for rice, $1,166 for peanuts, $943 for cotton, $890 for corn, $658 for soybeans, $498 for oats, $491 for barley, $443 for sorghum and $396 for wheat (USDA-ERS). Looking ahead to 2026, ERS projects costs remaining highest for rice ($1,336), peanuts ($1,194) and cotton ($965), while wheat ($409), sorghum ($458) and oats ($513) remain at the lower end of the cost spectrum.  Operating costs — including seed, fertilizer, chemicals, fuel, labor and interest — remain the main drivers of elevated breakeven prices. ERS data show that since 2020, interest expenses are up about 71%, labor 47%, fertilizer 37%, fuel and oil 32%, chemicals 25% and maintenance 27%, with notable increases also in seed and marketing costs (USDA-ERS). While some inputs have moderated from recent peaks, costs remain well above pre-2021 levels.   Against this cost backdrop, commodity prices have not kept pace. Farm Bureau analysis shows that returns over total costs remain negative for all nine principal crops, even after accounting for crop insurance indemnities and federal assistance programs. Based on loss calculations used in the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) Program, estimated per-acre losses after aid reach roughly $210 for rice, $202 for cotton, $159 for oats, $131 for peanuts, $91 for sorghum, $87 for corn, $70 for wheat, $61 for soybeans and $42 for barley. Cumulative net losses across U.S. agriculture are estimated to exceed $50 billion over the past three crop years. The FBA Program and the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) provide short-term support but were designed primarily to address 2023–2024 losses, not ongoing cost pressures in 2025 and beyond. As a result, Farm Bureau notes that aid helps slow the erosion of working capital but does not restore profitability, leaving many producers facing a fourth or fifth consecutive year of losses.   Farm Bureau also notes that specialty crop growers face similar economic pressures, including rising input and labor costs, weather and disease risks, and trade instability. However, limited cost-of-production data make per-acre loss estimates difficult. The 2024 Marketing Assistance for Specialty Crop Program offered limited relief and represented one of the first federal efforts to address market-related losses in the sector. Overall, ERS cost projections confirm that elevated production expenses remain “sticky” across U.S. agriculture, pushing breakeven prices higher while commodity prices lag. While longer-term safety-net enhancements in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act are expected to take effect in late 2026, Farm Bureau stresses they do not address near-term financial stress. In a recent letter organized by the American Farm Bureau Federation and signed by 56 agricultural organizations, farm groups warned Congress of an economic crisis in rural America driven by multiyear losses, record-high input costs and historically low commodity prices. — Trump arrives in Davos with Greenland, tariffs and global power plays at the forefrontA brief World Economic Forum visit — delayed by Air Force One trouble — puts President Trump’s territorial ambitions, trade threats and Gaza plan on a collision course with Europe  President Donald Trump heads into the World Economic Forum in Davos with a packed and contentious agenda after an unusual travel hiccup. Air Force One was forced to turn back shortly after takeoff due to a minor electrical issue, delaying Trump’s arrival by several hours and raising questions about whether he would make his scheduled opening appearance. Despite the delay, Trump plans roughly two days of meetings with political and business leaders, with tensions already elevated over trade, security and U.S./Europe relations.  At the top of his agenda is a push to acquire Greenland, which he argues is critical to U.S. and NATO national security. Danish and Greenlandic leaders have rejected the proposal, while European leaders have pushed back publicly. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer stressed that Greenland’s future belongs solely to its people and Denmark, while French President Emmanuel Macron warned that Washington risks destabilizing and subordinating Europe. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has taken a more measured tone, confirming talks with Trump on Arctic security and signaling openness to continued dialogue. Trump has already announced tariffs targeting certain European countries over their opposition to the Greenland proposal and warned that any trade retaliation would be met forcefully. He is expected to press the issue directly with European leaders while in Davos. — Bessent signals continued China talks after ‘positive’ Davos meetingTreasury secretary says he expects to meet Vice Premier He Lifeng again soon as economic deal implementation remains in focus U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he is looking forward to another meeting with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng, underscoring continued high-level engagement between Washington and Beijing following talks in Davos.“I look forward to meeting with the Vice Premier again soon,” Bessent wrote in a post on X, characterizing their recent discussions at the World Economic Forum in Davos as “positive.” According to Bessent, the two sides discussed the implementation of their existing economic agreement, signaling a shift from headline-level negotiations toward follow-through on commitments already made.  The remarks suggest the Trump administration is prioritizing execution and compliance as it manages a complex trade and economic relationship with China, even as broader geopolitical and tariff tensions persist. Bessent’s comments also reinforce that the Treasury Department remains a central channel for U.S./China economic dialogue, with further meetings expected as both sides assess progress and potential next steps on trade, investment, and financial cooperation. Meanwhile, Jamieson Greer, the U.S. Trade Representative, has publicly discussed plans to hold additional talks with his Chinese counterparts ahead of a planned April meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Greer told reporters in Davos that there’s “a chance that we might meet before then” to try to secure further agreements on areas of non-sensitive trade before the leaders’ summit in April. This dovetails with broader U.S. efforts to smooth economic relations and establish frameworks that a presidential meeting could build on. Of note: Greer said he was unsure if the U.S. will get a comprehensive trade deal with China, he said on Fox Business. “I think you’ll see a focus on what I just called normal trade, right, and non-sensitive goods in the first instance, and some of those stickier questions, maybe for later,” he added. U.S. has the rare earths inflow that it needs right now, Greer stressed.  — U.S./EU tariff standoff puts $100B in exports at riskSuspended EU duties could snap back in February if Washington moves ahead with Greenland-linked tariffs Roughly $100 billion in U.S. exports — ranging from Boeing aircraft to bourbon whiskey — could be swept into a new transatlantic trade clash if President Donald Trump proceeds with threats to impose tariffs on European allies tied to opposition to his Greenland push. Under a deal struck last year, the European Union suspended import duties on hundreds of categories of American goods. That suspension is scheduled to expire Feb. 7, creating a ready-made retaliation option if Washington moves forward with new duties on several European countries over Greenland.  EU officials say they are prioritizing dialogue with the Trump administration to avoid escalation. Leaders from the bloc’s member states are set to meet Thursday to discuss the issue, though diplomats caution that firm decisions are unlikely until the U.S. acts. While reinstating last year’s tariff list remains the most straightforward response, officials note the EU could revise targets or deploy alternative countermeasures if tensions intensify. — Trump signals Panama Canal control is under considerationPresident says reclaiming the strategic waterway is “sort of on the table,” reviving debate over U.S. influence and global shipping routes President Donald Trump suggested that the idea of the United States taking back control of the Panama Canal is being actively contemplated, telling reporters that it is “sort of, that’s sort of on the table” when asked directly about the prospect. The comment marks Trump’s most explicit acknowledgment to date that reclaiming the canal — transferred fully to Panama in 1999 under treaties negotiated during the Carter administration — is at least under discussion within his orbit. While he did not outline any specific plan or timeline, the comment underscores his willingness to revisit long-settled geopolitical arrangements in pursuit of what he argues are U.S. strategic and economic interests. Trump has repeatedly criticized foreign control or influence over critical infrastructure tied to global trade and U.S. security, and the Panama Canal — a vital artery for U.S. agricultural exports, energy shipments, and military logistics — has long featured in nationalist political rhetoric. Any move to reassert U.S. control would almost certainly trigger sharp diplomatic pushback from Panama, raise treaty and international law questions, and unsettle global shipping markets already on edge from trade tensions. For now, the White House has offered no further clarification, leaving Trump’s comment as a signal rather than a policy — but one that is likely to reverberate quickly in Latin America, global trade circles, and Congress. — Trump plans nationwide travel blitz to sell economic agenda ahead of midtermsWhite House says president will hit the road weekly, spotlighting affordability, manufacturing and farm/energy issues as November elections near President Donald Trump is preparing to sharply increase domestic travel in the months leading up to November’s midterm elections, aiming to intensify messaging around his economic agenda as voter concerns about affordability remain high. White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles said the president will be on the road “every week,” with travel accelerating as the battle for control of Congress heats up. Trump is set to visit Iowa next, where he plans to highlight farm economy and energy issues in a state central to his political rise. The broader push includes Cabinet officials scaling back international travel in favor of domestic stops, reflecting what Wiles described as a full-court press to reinforce the administration’s economic message. Until now, Trump’s travel has been relatively limited, with recent appearances including a visit to a Ford Motor Company facility and remarks at the Detroit Economic Club, where he promoted tariffs and domestic manufacturing. The stepped-up travel comes as Trump prepares to deliver a major address on affordability at the World Economic Forum, outlining a populist policy package that includes restricting institutional investors from buying single-family homes, temporarily capping credit-card interest rates at 10%, and directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds to help lower borrowing costs. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Trump also plans to propose allowing limited use of 401(k) funds for home down payments. While Trump signed an executive order this week outlining steps to curb institutional home purchases, the administration has yet to impose immediate restrictions. The renewed travel push underscores growing Republican anxiety about holding narrow congressional majorities, as high costs for housing, groceries, utilities and healthcare continue to weigh on voters — and as Trump seeks to sharpen, and consistently deliver, his economic message ahead of the midterms. — Arctic blast supercharges natgas rallyU.S. natural gas futures poised for biggest weekly jump in 35+ years as deep freeze looms U.S. natural gas futures are surging toward their largest weekly gain in more than three decades, driven by forecasts that an Arctic cold front will sweep across much of North America next week, sharply lifting heating demand just as winter inventories are drawn down. Why prices are spiking• Demand shock: The incoming cold is expected to blanket large population centers across the Midwest, Northeast, and parts of the South, pushing space-heating demand sharply higher.• Supply risk: Snow is forecast this weekend in Texas, a critical hub for U.S. gas production and processing. Winter weather there raises the risk of freeze-offs and operational disruptions, tightening supply at the margin.• Storage draw fears: With winter storage already under pressure, traders are pricing in heavier-than-normal withdrawals if the cold persists. Market context. The move caps a rapid repricing as weather models converged on colder outcomes, triggering short-covering and fresh speculative buying. Volatility has jumped alongside prices, reflecting uncertainty over how long the cold lasts and whether Texas production avoids meaningful outages. What to watch next• Updated weather runs over the next 48–72 hours for confirmation of duration and severity.• Texas operational updates (freeze-offs, processing constraints).• Weekly storage data, which could validate — or temper —t he rally if draws come in above expectations. Bottom Line: A rare alignment of extreme cold risk and potential supply constraints has set the stage for a historic weekly gain. Whether it sticks will hinge on how long the freeze lasts and how resilient Texas production proves under winter stress.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today: Market stress stayed elevated following a sharp selloff in global bond markets, driving investors toward safe-haven assets such as gold. Global equities drifted lower as U.S. threats to acquire Greenland unsettled markets ahead of President Donald Trump’s remarks in Davos. There are no economic reports due to be released today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak. U.S. Dow is currently up just over 200 points, a modest rebound at the open after the previous session’s steep losses. Meanwhile, President Trump won’t announce his pick for Fed chair while in Davos because he hasn’t made up his mind, a White House official told reporters on Wednesday. In Asia, Japan -0.4%. Hong Kong +0.4%. China +0.1%. India -0.3%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.2%. Paris -0.4%. Frankfurt -1%.

— Equities yesterday:

Equity Index	Closing Price  Jan. 20	Point Difference  from Jan. 16	% Difference  from Jan. 16
Dow	48,488.59	-870.74	-1.76%
Nasdaq	22,954.32	-561.07	-2.39%
S&P 500	6,796.86	-143.15	-2.06%

— Supreme Court to hear case testing Trump’s power to fire Fed governor

Dispute over Lisa Cook’s removal could reshape Federal Reserve independence and expand presidential authority over monetary policymakers

The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments in a closely watched case over whether President Donald Trump can remove Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, a move that would mark an unprecedented challenge to the central bank’s independence.

Trump is seeking to dismiss Cook over allegations of mortgage fraud, which she has forcefully denied. The case goes beyond the specific accusations, however, raising fundamental questions about whether Fed governors — who traditionally enjoy protection from removal except for cause — can be fired by a president for reasons that may include policy disagreements.

Legal scholars and market participants are watching closely because a ruling in Trump’s favor could significantly alter the balance between the White House and the Fed. Such a precedent would open the door for current and future presidents to pressure or remove central bank officials whose views diverge from their own on interest rates, inflation, or financial regulation.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to attend the hearing in a rare public show of solidarity with a sitting governor, underscoring the institution’s concern about the broader implications for central bank independence. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, however, criticized Powell’s presence, calling it a “mistake” and signaling internal administration tensions over how aggressively to confront the Fed.

The court’s decision could have lasting consequences not only for Cook’s tenure, but also for the institutional safeguards that have long insulated U.S. monetary policy from direct political control — an issue with potentially significant implications for financial markets, inflation expectations, and global confidence in the Fed.

— Lutnick predicts 5%+ growth surge in early 2026

Commerce Secretary says rate cuts could push full-year expansion toward 6%

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the U.S. economy is on track to post first-quarter growth exceeding 5%, projecting an unusually strong start to 2026 as fiscal, trade, and investment tailwinds converge.

Speaking from Davos in an interview with Fox Business metwork, Lutnick argued that momentum from domestic investment, energy production, and reshoring efforts is accelerating faster than many forecasters expect. He added that if the Federal Reserve moves to cut interest rates, full-year 2026 growth could approach 6% — a pace well above recent trend estimates.

The comments underscore the administration’s upbeat economic narrative as President Trump and senior officials use the World Economic Forum to pitch the U.S. as the premier destination for capital amid global uncertainty. Lutnick’s forecast also raises the stakes for upcoming data releases and Fed deliberations, with markets weighing whether policy easing would amplify growth — or risk reigniting inflation pressures later in the year.

AG MARKETS

— USDA daily export sales for MY 2025/26:
• 150,000 MT corn to Colombia
• 195,000 MT corn to unknown destinations

— China completes initial 12 MMT U.S. soybean purchase commitment

Beijing finishes first tranche under four-year deal as talks turn to larger volumes ahead

China has completed its initial commitment to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday during an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Speaking to Fox Business, Bessent said he met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Davos, where He confirmed the purchases were finalized this week. 

Bessent added that discussions are already focused on next year’s target of 25 million metric tons, joking that China could consider buying even more.

The confirmation marks a key milestone in the broader soybean agreement China reached in October, under which Beijing pledged to buy 87 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans over four years. The deal calls for 12 million tons by the end of the current crop year, followed by 25 million tons annually for the subsequent three years.

For U.S. agriculture and trade officials, the completed first tranche provides early evidence that China is following through on commodity commitments at a time when broader U.S./China economic relations remain closely watched. It also shows how some grain analysts and ag consulting reports were initially wrong in saying China would not fulfill its purchase commitment regarding the 12 MMT of soybeans. 

— China lifts poultry ban on Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul

Move ends 18-month suspension tied to Newcastle disease, though some plant approvals are still pending

China lifted its ban on chicken imports from Brazil’s southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, ending an embargo imposed in July 2024 after a Newcastle disease case at a commercial farm. China’s General Administration of Customs of China said the decision followed a risk assessment clearing the state.

Brazilian officials say the move removes all remaining China-related restrictions on Brazilian poultry, though export approvals for individual plants are still being reactivated. As of midday Jan. 20, eight facilities — including plants operated by BRF and JBS — remained listed as restricted.

Brazil exported 247,970 tonnes of chicken to China last year, down nearly 56%, but industry groups say the reopening is a key step toward normalizing trade with one of Brazil’s most important poultry markets.

— Brazil’s expanding crop footprint raises stakes for U.S. producers

Opposite-season harvests, record soy output, and rising corn and cotton exports keep Brazil at the center of global competition

Why U.S. producers must monitor Brazil. Southern Ag Today and William E. Maples, Assistant Professor and Extension Economist, notes that Brazil’s continued expansion in soybeans, corn, and cotton highlights why U.S. row-crop producers must closely monitor South American crop conditions. Because Brazil’s growing season runs opposite that of the United States, soybean harvest is just beginning while corn and cotton outcomes will be determined through late winter and spring — often shaping global markets ahead of U.S. planting decisions. The estimates and outlook discussed below draw primarily from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and Brazil’s national statistics agency CONAB, as summarized by Southern Ag Today.

Soybeans: record output driven by biofuels and China. Soybean planting in Brazil typically runs from September through December. While irregular rainfall caused early planting delays in some regions during 2025, progress accelerated later in the season and planting was largely completed on schedule (CONAB). As of Jan. 10, harvest had begun in select areas, though national progress remained below 1% (CONAB).

According to the January WASDE report from USDA, Brazilian soybean production is projected at 178 million metric tons, up from 171.5 million metric tons last year and potentially another record. Growth is being supported by expansion of Brazil’s B15 biodiesel mandate and continued strong demand from China. USDA also projects Brazilian soybean exports at 114 million metric tons, compared with 42.86 million metric tons for the United States, reinforcing Brazil’s dominant position in the Chinese import market (USDA WASDE).

Corn: safrinha timing is the key risk. Brazil produces two corn crops annually. The first crop is planted from October through December and harvested beginning in February, while the second crop — known as safrinha — is planted after early-season soybean harvest in January and February and harvested from June through September (CONAB).

USDA currently projects 2025 Brazilian corn production at 131 million metric tons, roughly 2% lower than last year, largely due to expected yield impacts from La Niña conditions (USDA WASDE). Importantly, the second corn crop — accounting for roughly 79% of Brazil’s total corn production in recent years — has not yet been planted (CONAB). Delays in soybean harvest could push safrinha planting outside its optimal window, increasing downside production risk as the season develops.

Cotton: Brazil surpasses the U.S. in exports. Brazilian cotton planting occurs from December through February, with harvest from May through September. The USDA projects Brazilian cotton production at 18.75 million bales, up 10% from last year and 28% from 2023 (USDA WASDE).

For the first time in 2024, Brazil surpassed the United States as the world’s leading cotton exporter and is projected to maintain that position during the current crop year (USDA). Improvements in cotton quality have driven stronger global demand, while ongoing trade uncertainty has encouraged importing countries to diversify suppliers—further supporting Brazilian exports (USDA, CONAB).

Where producers can track Brazilian crops. The USDA WASDE report remains the primary global reference for supply-and-demand estimates across major commodities. Brazil’s CONAB Agricultural Information Portal provides detailed, regularly updated production data by crop and region. While published in Portuguese, browser-based translation tools make the information accessible. As emphasized by Southern Ag Today, state Extension crop marketing specialists remain an important resource for interpreting these data and assessing market implications for U.S. producers.

Bottom Line: USDA and CONAB data show Brazil’s continued expansion — especially in soybeans and cotton — will keep it a dominant force in global markets, with safrinha corn progress emerging as a key variable to watch in the months ahead.

— Agriculture markets yesterday: 

Commodity	Contract  Month	Close Jan. 20	Change from  Jan. 16
Corn	March	$4.23 3/4	-1 cent
Soybeans	March	$10.53	-4 3/4 cents
Soybean Meal	March	$291.60	+$1.60
Soybean Oil	March	52.56 cents	-5 points
Wheat (SRW)	March	$5.10 1/4	-7 3/4 cents
Wheat (HRW)	March	$5.23	-4 1/4 cents
Spring Wheat	March	$5.62	-3 cents
Cotton	March	64.34 cents	-32 points
Live Cattle	February	$232.375	+22 1/2 cents
Feeder Cattle	March	$357.675	+$1.225
Lean Hogs	February	$87.85	-42 1/2 cents

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Wednesday: Oil slips as inventory builds, Kazakhstan disruptions and Greenland tensions collide

Crude prices ease despite recent gains, with traders weighing U.S. stockpile expectations, temporary Kazakh outages and escalating tariff-driven geopolitical risk

Oil prices edged lower Wednesday as markets balanced near-term supply disruptions against expectations of rising U.S. inventories and fresh geopolitical tension linked to Washington’s tariff threats over Greenland.

Brent crude slipped 12 cents (-0.2%) to $64.80 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 11 cents (-0.2%) to $60.25. The pullback followed roughly 1.5% gains in the prior session, driven by temporary output halts in Kazakhstan and supportive Chinese economic data.

Production at the Tengiz and Korolev oilfields was halted Sunday due to power distribution issues, with outages potentially lasting another 7–10 days, according to industry sources. Even so, analysts cautioned that the stoppage is temporary and that downward pressure from expected U.S. inventory builds could persist, alongside geopolitical risk tied to trade tensions.

Those tensions intensified after Donald Trump said there was “no going back” on his goal to control Greenland, reiterating plans to escalate tariffs on European allies—moves analysts warn could dampen growth and add to risk-off sentiment in oil markets.

On inventories, a Reuters poll of analysts points to a roughly 1.7 million-barrel rise in U.S. crude stocks for the week ended Jan. 16. Data from the American Petroleum Institute is due Wednesday, followed by official figures from the Energy Information Administration on Thursday (both delayed a day by a U.S. federal holiday). Gasoline stocks are also expected to rise, while distillates likely fell.

Looking ahead, some see upside risks: analysts note that a potential re-escalation of U.S.–Iran tensions could lend support to prices, partially offsetting the bearish impact of inventories and tariff uncertainty.

— Tuesday: Oil prices climb on Kazakhstan supply disruption, firm growth signals

Brent and WTI gain about 1.5% as a temporary outage at major Kazakh fields tightens near-term flows, while strong China data offsets renewed tariff jitters tied to President Trump

Oil prices moved higher Tuesday as a temporary halt at Kazakhstan’s largest oil fields tightened near-term supply and stronger global growth signals lifted demand sentiment, even as markets tracked escalating tariff threats from President Donald Trump.

Brent crude settled up 98 cents, 1.5%, at $64.92 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose about 1.5% to roughly $60.35, with the more active March contract gaining 1.7%.

Support came from production stoppages at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz and Korolev fields after a power disruption, an outage expected to last up to 10 days and curb exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. While seen as temporary, the scale of Tengiz made the pause meaningful for short-term crude flows.

Prices also drew lift from stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data, including better fourth-quarter growth and rising refinery throughput, alongside firmer diesel prices and a weaker U.S. dollar.

Capping gains, analysts flagged renewed trade-tension risks after Trump threatened tariffs on multiple European countries tied to Greenland-related negotiations, warning that escalation could ultimately weigh on global growth and oil demand if implemented.

— Venezuela gets first oil revenue as U.S. action intensifies

Government receives roughly $300M from initial $500M U.S. sale; U.S. seizes seventh sanctioned Venezuela-linked tanker amid ongoing control efforts

Venezuela’s government has received its first payment — about $300 million — from the $500 million sale of Venezuelan oil arranged by the United States, easing the influx of much-needed foreign currency into the economy for the first time in about a month. Meanwhile, U.S. military forces have seized a seventh sanctioned oil tanker tied to Venezuela, part of broader U.S. efforts to control the country’s oil shipments and enforce sanctions.

TRADE POLICY

— Daines presses India on pulse crops as trade talks resume

Montana senator urges favorable access for U.S. pulse farmers amid tariffs and renewed U.S./India negotiations

Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) used a weekend visit to New Delhi to push Indian officials for improved treatment of U.S. pulse crops in any future U.S./India trade agreement, citing the importance of export access for Montana farmers.

Daines’ agenda. According to a U.S. Embassy statement, Daines met with India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, members of Parliament, and business leaders from both countries. Daines said the trip was aimed at reaffirming the strategic partnership while advocating directly for Montana’s pulse producers.

The embassy said Daines urged “favorable pulse crop provisions” and pressed for faster progress toward a “fair and reciprocal” bilateral trade deal, including cooperation on supply-chain security. Montana is the top U.S. producer of pulse crops, while India is the world’s largest consumer.

The push comes as Washington and New Delhi explore a trade agreement following tariff escalation by Donald Trump, who imposed — and later doubled — 25% tariffs on Indian imports to pressure India over purchases of Russian oil. India, for its part, imposed a 30% tariff on yellow peas last October, effective in November.

Earlier this month, Daines and Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) urged Trump to address the pea tariff, calling it unfair and a competitive disadvantage for U.S. exporters. They noted the issue was raised during Trump’s first term and said a letter hand-delivered to Prime Minister Narendra Modi helped bring producers “to the table.”

It remains unclear whether Daines directly asked Indian officials to reduce or remove the 30% yellow-pea tariff during the visit. 

CONGRESS

— House advances two-track plan to finish FY 2026 funding before Jan. 30 deadline

Rules vote and razor-thin margins loom as leadership pushes final spending package to the Senate

House leaders are moving to wrap up the chamber’s remaining Fiscal Year 2026 spending work ahead of the Jan. 30 expiration of the current continuing resolution, setting up a complex, two-track floor strategy this week.

The U.S. House of Representatives is preparing to consider a four-bill funding package that would complete its FY 2026 appropriations. The House Rules Committee plans to take up the legislation in two parts: one covering Defense, Labor-HHS-Education, and Transportation-HUD, and a second, standalone track for Homeland Security.

Leadership opted for separate handling of the Homeland Security bill due to its higher political sensitivity, allowing for an independent vote on that measure. The expectation is that the House will pass both components, then fold them into a single, consolidated spending package.

Before sending the bill to the U.S. Senate, House leaders also plan to add the Financial Services and National Security–State appropriations measures, further broadening the package.

The biggest near-term hurdle is procedural: leadership must secure near-unanimous support within the majority to adopt the rule governing floor debate — a risky step given the chamber’s razor-thin margins. Assuming the rule clears, a final House vote is expected Thursday, setting up Senate consideration next week just ahead of the Jan. 30 funding deadline.

If the timeline holds, the strategy would allow Congress to avert another short-term extension and move closer to locking in full-year FY 2026 funding.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— California GOP Seeks Emergency Supreme Court Block on Proposition 50 Redistricting Maps

Republicans warn the voter-approved overhaul would upend election timelines and dilute representation if allowed to proceed before full judicial review

California Republicans filed an emergency appeal asking the Supreme Court of the United States to halt implementation of the new congressional and legislative maps produced under Proposition 50, arguing the process violates constitutional protections and risks election chaos if left in place. In their filing, GOP leaders contend that the Prop. 50 framework — approved by voters and now producing updated district boundaries — changes long-standing redistricting rules in ways that could unfairly disadvantage certain regions and voters. They also argue that proceeding under the new maps ahead of a merits decision would force candidates, election administrators, and voters to operate under lines that could later be invalidated.

The emergency request asks the court to issue a temporary stay, preserving the prior maps while lower-court challenges continue. Supporters of Prop. 50 counter that voters explicitly endorsed the changes to improve fairness and transparency, and that delaying the maps would undermine the will of the electorate and compress already tight election calendars.

The Supreme Court is not required to act immediately, but emergency applications are typically routed to the justice overseeing the relevant circuit before potentially going to the full court. If the justices grant a stay, it would pause the new maps for upcoming contests; if not, elections would likely move forward under the Prop. 50 lines while the broader legal fight plays out.

— Maryland panel advances map that could hand Democrats all eight House seats

Proposal approved by governor-appointed commission heads to legislature despite internal Democratic dissent

The Maryland Redistricting Advisory Commission, appointed by Democratic Gov. Wes Moore, has approved a proposed congressional map that would give Democrats control of all eight of Maryland’s U.S. House seats.

The so-called concept map now moves to the General Assembly, where lawmakers will decide whether to adopt, amend, or reject the plan. If enacted as drawn, the map would eliminate the state’s lone Republican-held district and cement a clean Democratic sweep in a delegation that currently stands at 7–1.

Notably, the vote exposed intraparty divisions. State Senate President Bill Ferguson, a Democrat who serves on the commission, voted against the proposal. Ferguson has argued that reopening congressional lines risks unnecessary political backlash and legal scrutiny, particularly given Maryland’s recent redistricting history.

Supporters of the map counter that the configuration better reflects Maryland’s statewide voting patterns and complies with federal requirements on population equality and minority representation. Critics, however, warn it could invite court challenges on partisan-gerrymandering grounds and fuel broader national fights over redistricting norms.

The legislature is expected to take up the proposal in the coming weeks, setting the stage for a high-stakes debate that could shape Maryland’s congressional representation for the next decade — and add to the national redistricting chessboard ahead of future election cycles.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Lake effect snow expected downwind of the Great Lakes over the next couple of days… …Dangerously cold Arctic air spills out over the Great Plains and Midwest beginning tonight.