House Elevates E15 Debate in FY 2026 Funding Rule
Leadership creates fast-track ethanol council as spending bills sidestep year-round E15 language
| LINKS |
Link: Donald Trump at Davos: Power, Security, Markets, and the
Case for a New Economic Order
Link: GOP Leadership Stalemate as Midwestern Holdouts Press for
Year-Round E15 Path
Link: Trump Signals Greenland Deal Framework With NATO,
Pauses Europe Tariff Threats
Link: Year-Round E15, Refinery Exemptions Targeted in
Budget Bill Amendment
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 16
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 16
| Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Jan. 22, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— House moves to elevate E15 debate as part of FY 2026 funding rule: Spending bills still omit direct ethanol language, but the floor rule adopts a separate resolution creating an E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council and sets a Feb. 15 recommendation deadline with a Feb. 25 target for congressional action.
— Trump heads to Iowa on Tuesday to launch midterm travel blitz: The White House is shifting into a more campaign-style posture with near-weekly domestic trips; Iowa is the kickoff stop, framed around the economy, energy policy and the farm economy — with ethanol likely to feature.
— Trump backs off Greenland tariffs after Davos talks with NATO chief: Trump drops a threatened extra 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries after meeting Mark Rutte and touts a “framework” tied to Greenland minerals and missile defense; Europe’s trade posture hardens even as markets read the retreat as de-escalation.
— Trump signals open-ended U.S. control of Greenland in Davos interview: Trump describes “total access” with no time limit and no purchase price, pitching the arrangement as a permanent security-driven deal tied to basing, minerals and the “Golden Dome,” with analysts arguing it could strengthen NATO by denying Russia/China strategic footholds.
— Trump signals Fed shake-up as prediction markets elevate Kevin Warsh: Trump says a Fed chair decision is coming “not too distant,” while Kalshi odds swing toward Kevin Warsh — raising stakes for a confirmation fight centered on Fed independence and the future direction of rates.
— USDA launches $100 million screwworm ‘grand challenge’ to shield U.S. livestock: Rollins announces up to $100M via APHIS to bolster detection, sterile-fly production and rapid-response tools (focused on Mexico/Central America); applications due Feb. 23 and USDA is promoting stakeholder updates via screwworm.gov.
— Winter storm to blanket much of the U.S. with snow, ice, and high winds: A major, far-reaching system is expected to hit more than two dozen states from Friday into Sunday, driving travel disruptions, ice-driven outage risk (especially in the South), and dangerous blowing/drifting snow farther north.
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: Global stocks extend a relief rally as Greenland-related tariff tensions cool (U.S. poised for a second day of gains; broad green across Asia and Europe at midday).
— Equities yesterday (index scoreboard): U.S. equities rallied strongly on Jan. 21 (Dow +588.64; Nasdaq +270.50; S&P 500 +78.76), reinforcing the “risk-on” response to reduced tariff escalation fears.
— U.S. GDP growth accelerates to two-year high in Q3: Q3 2025 growth revised up to 4.4% annualized, led by stronger exports and a sharply smaller inventory drag; consumer spending remains robust while fixed investment cools.
— Gold pauses near records as Greenland tensions ease: Haven demand cools after Trump backs off Europe tariffs, but gold remains supported by lingering geopolitical risk and renewed Fed-related uncertainty; Goldman lifts its year-end target to $5,400.
— Corteva, Bayer settle long-running patent fight over Roundup-resistant corn: The companies dismiss claims with prejudice in Delaware, ending a case involving multiple patents after PTAB setbacks and stalled Federal Circuit appeals.
— Berkshire Hathaway signals exit from Kraft Heinz after decade-long disappointment: Berkshire registers its full stake for potential sale as Kraft Heinz explores breakup options, signaling a post-Buffett-era willingness to unwind a long-underperforming holding.
— Supreme Court pushes back on Trump’s Fed power play: Justices from both wings express skepticism about Trump’s attempt to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, spotlighting central bank independence and procedural concerns.
AG MARKETS
— USDA daily export sale: 192,350 MT of soybeans sold to unknown destinations for 2025/26.
— Agriculture markets yesterday (futures recap): Mixed close with soy complex strength (beans and oil higher; meal slightly lower), corn and SRW/HRW wheat down modestly, livestock stronger (live/feeder cattle higher; hogs flat), and cotton slightly lower.
FARM POLICY
— Soybean growers warn of deepening financial strain heading into 2026 planting season: The American Soybean Association says export weakness and high costs are stressing cash flow; it presses Congress for additional short-term aid to cover uncovered 2025 losses while urging biofuel policy clarity to support longer-term demand.
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Thursday: Oil slides as Trump softens geopolitical rhetoric, inventories weigh: Crude falls as Greenland/Iran tensions ease and inventory builds loom, despite a slightly firmer 2026 demand outlook; markets also watch Russia/Ukraine comments and potential sanctions implications.
— Wednesday: Oil prices edge higher as Kazakhstan outages and Venezuela constraints offset macro headwinds: Supply disruptions in Kazakhstan and slower Venezuelan restoration support prices, but tariff/growth worries and inventory expectations cap gains.
— Iowa House advances CO₂ eminent domain ban to Senate: House passes HF 2104 to block eminent domain for CO₂ pipelines, teeing up another Senate clash over property rights versus ethanol/low-carbon market access tied to carbon capture.
— First U.S. sales of Venezuelan crude reported: Valero and Phillips 66 buy initial cargoes via Vitol under the new U.S./Venezuela export arrangement, reportedly at a heavy-crude discount to Brent; the move marks early commercial uptake of sanctions-relief-linked flows.
TRADE POLICY
— EU eyes March provisional start for Mercosur trade pact: EU officials say provisional application could begin once the first Mercosur country ratifies — Paraguay is cited as the likely first mover — though legal challenges at the European Court of Justice could slow or complicate implementation.
POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— FCC signals crackdown on late-night TV’s political guest lineups: The FCC signals tougher enforcement of “equal time” rules for candidate appearances, potentially chilling bookings as the 2026 cycle heats up and raising new compliance risks for broadcasters.
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: snow squalls + dangerous cold + major ice threat: The NWS flags scattered snow squalls in the Northeast/New England through Friday, an Arctic air spill across the Plains/East into the weekend, and a major winter storm bringing crippling ice and sleet to parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley Friday.
| TOP STORIES — House moves to elevate E15 debate as part of FY 2026 funding ruleFloor package adopts resolution creating an E15-focused rural energy council, setting a fast-track timeline for ethanol legislation even as spending bills omit direct language House Republicans are advancing the debate over year-round sales of higher-ethanol gasoline by formally elevating E15 within a new House resolution adopted as part of the procedural rule for major FY 2026 spending legislation. While the underlying appropriations bills moving to the House floor — the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026 and the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026 — do not contain direct ethanol or biofuel mandates, the rule package explicitly adopts a separate resolution establishing an E-15 Rural Domestic Energy Council. The council, to be appointed by the Speaker, is tasked with developing legislative solutions to what the resolution describes as a growing crisis facing farmers and refiners. Its scope goes well beyond E15 sales alone, directing members to investigate the broader ethanol policy landscape, including refinery capacity, the Renewable Fuel Standard, Renewable Identification Numbers, market access challenges, and federal regulations viewed as barriers to U.S. energy dominance. Importantly for ethanol supporters, the council comes with an accelerated timeline. It must submit legislative recommendations to Congress by Feb. 15, 2026, with the express intent that lawmakers consider E15-related legislation no later than Feb. 25, 2026. That schedule signals continued pressure from Midwestern lawmakers and farm-state interests who have been seeking a clear pathway to year-round E15 authorization after repeated failures to secure the provision through appropriations bills. The move reflects a strategic shift rather than a retreat. With E15 excluded from the FY 2026 spending measures themselves, House leaders are using the rules process to keep ethanol policy front and center — creating a formal venue to bridge divides between biofuel producers, refiners, and leadership ahead of another legislative push. For corn growers and ethanol advocates, the council offers a concrete, if indirect, step toward action. For leadership, it provides a way to acknowledge mounting political pressure on E15 without reopening fragile funding negotiations — while preserving a near-term window for a standalone ethanol deal in early 2026. — Trump heads to Iowa on Tuesday to launch midterm travel blitzPresident to spotlight economy, energy policy as White House ramps up weekly domestic visits ahead of 2026 elections President Donald Trump is traveling to Iowa next week as part of a new push to take his economic message directly to voters ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The Iowa trip, scheduled for Tuesday, marks the opening salvo in what the White House describes as a plan for Trump to travel domestically on a near-weekly basis. Speaking to reporters during the World Economic Forum meetings in Davos, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles said the president intends to intensify his on-the-ground presence as voter concerns about the economy and affordability remain front and center. According to administration officials, Trump’s Iowa appearance will focus heavily on economic growth, energy policy, and the farm economy — issues with particular resonance in the Midwest. Iowa has long been a political bellwether and remains central to Trump’s political coalition, especially as Republicans look to defend and expand their congressional majorities in November. The visit also underscores the administration’s effort to reframe the national conversation around economic performance. Trump and his advisers have sought to highlight strong headline growth, energy production, and manufacturing investment while countering persistent voter unease over prices and household costs. Upshot: While specific details on the venue and timing of the Iowa speech have not yet been released, the stop is expected to draw close attention from agricultural, energy, and political audiences alike. Additional domestic trips are expected to follow quickly, as the White House moves into a more campaign-style posture months ahead of the midterm elections. When Trump goes to Iowa, ethanol is almost always part of the script, especially when the visit is framed around energy and the farm economy. — Trump backs off Greenland tariffs after Davos talks with NATO chiefWhite House signals pause in Europe trade escalation as markets, allies and Congress push back President Donald Trump abruptly canceled plans to impose an additional 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries after meeting with Mark Rutte on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, announcing instead a vague “framework of a future deal” involving Greenland. Trump said the framework centers on access to Greenland’s critical minerals and integration with his proposed Golden Dome missile defense concept. While he reiterated that he would not use military force to annex Greenland — a Danish territory — he underscored that the island remains a U.S. national security priority given growing Russian and Chinese activity in the Arctic. Trade shockwaves in Europe. The reversal came after several days of escalating pressure on U.S. allies, which had already begun to ripple through European policy circles. The European Union said earlier Wednesday that ongoing trade discussions with Washington were effectively frozen in response to Trump’s tariff threats. That pause jeopardized a tentative understanding reached last summer under which the EU would remove tariffs on certain U.S. imports and expand investment cooperation — an agreement that was never formally finalized and now appears stalled indefinitely. Financial and market fallout. In a more symbolic response, Denmark’s AkademikerPension fund moved to liquidate roughly $100 million in U.S. Treasury holdings, spanning short-term bills and longer-dated notes and bonds. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed the move, saying Denmark’s Treasury holdings — “like Denmark itself” — were irrelevant. Still, market participants and foreign governments appear to be drawing broader lessons. Rebecca Patterson, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said investors increasingly see tariff threats as less credible tools of economic coercion because Trump often retreats when financial markets react sharply. But she warned that persistent policy volatility and repeated threats are prompting foreign leaders to rethink their exposure to the U.S. What’s next. Beyond market concerns, Trump also faced the risk of rapid EU retaliation. European officials had openly discussed activating a new trade-defense instrument that could target U.S. technology firms, pharmaceutical companies and other multinational exporters. Bottom Line: Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said the president likely encountered limited support on Capitol Hill and strong opposition from major corporations with deep exposure to Europe. Together, that resistance appears to have helped force a tactical retreat — even as the administration keeps Greenland firmly in its strategic sights. Trump Signals Open-Ended U.S. Control of Greenland in Davos InterviewDavos — President frames Greenland access as national-security deal, not a purchase, as analysts say move strengthens NATO and counters China and Russia In an interview conducted moments before air during Mornings with Maria from Davos, President Donald Trump laid out his clearest case yet for sweeping U.S. control and access to Greenland — portraying it not as a traditional acquisition, but as a strategic, security-driven arrangement with no time limit and no purchase price. Asked whether the U.S. was seeking to buy Greenland, Trump rejected the premise. He said negotiations are underway for “total access” — including military basing and strategic deployment — without a fixed term such as the historic 99-year leases used in past territorial agreements. “There’s no end, there’s no time limit,” Trump said, emphasizing that the arrangement would be permanent in nature and tied directly to U.S. and allied security interests. No purchase price, full access. Trump argued that while Greenland’s annual GDP is roughly $3.3 billion, outside valuations of the territory range from $50 billion to nearly $1 trillion because of its mineral wealth, geographic position, and military significance. Still, he said the U.S. would not pay to acquire the territory. Instead, Trump framed the deal as an exchange of security guarantees and infrastructure investment, including deployment tied to his proposed “Golden Dome” missile defense system — which he described as vastly more advanced than Israel’s Iron Dome and fully manufactured in the United States. “We’re not going to have to pay anything,” Trump said. “We’re talking about national security and international security.” He also pointed to market reaction, noting that U.S. stocks rose after the Greenland framework was announced — a sign, in his view, that investors see the move as stabilizing rather than disruptive. Panel: NATO strengthened, not undermined. Following the interview, Mornings with Maria host Maria Bartiromo turned to analysts John Lonski of The Lonski Group and Lee Carter, a pollster, who both argued the Greenland move runs counter to fears that Trump would weaken NATO. Lonski said the arrangement could ultimately reinforce the alliance by locking down a critical Arctic territory and preventing strategic encroachment by rivals. “The most important aspect of this agreement might be that it keeps Russia and China out of Greenland,” Lonski said, citing both military positioning and access to critical minerals. Carter echoed that view, saying European leaders at Davos are scrambling to engage Trump directly as they reassess his strategy. “Never bet against Donald Trump,” Carter said, arguing that what critics initially dismissed as bombastic rhetoric now appears to be a calculated geopolitical play. A broader geopolitical reset. Both analysts placed Greenland in a wider context that includes U.S. pressure on Venezuela, Iran, and China — describing the administration’s approach as a deliberate effort to reshape global power dynamics. Carter said Trump is advancing a coherent “America First” philosophy centered on national security, energy resources, and economic leverage, without apologizing for the shift. “We’re really changing world order here,” she said. “He’s setting the whole stage for Davos.” Bartiromo closed the segment by previewing additional parts of her Trump interview, including discussions on affordability, free-market capitalism, and U.S. economic policy heading into the midterm elections — underscoring that, once again, Trump himself has become the dominant storyline at the World Economic Forum. — Trump signals Fed shake-up as prediction markets elevate Kevin WarshKalshi odds swing toward former Fed governor as president hints Powell successor decision is near President Donald Trump on Wednesday intensified speculation over the future leadership of the Federal Reserve, signaling that a decision on the next central bank chair could come soon — even as prediction markets move decisively toward Kevin Warsh as the leading contender. Speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump said he had effectively settled on a replacement for current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term has been marked by repeated public clashes with the president over interest rates and inflation policy. “I’ll be announcing a new Fed chairman in the not-too-distant future,” Trump said. “Somebody that’s very respected.” Prediction markets tilt toward Warsh. The comments came as the prediction market Kalshi showed Warsh emerging as the front-runner to succeed Powell. Kalshi traders sharply increased the implied probability of Warsh’s appointment following Trump’s Davos remarks, reflecting growing confidence that the White House is leaning toward a familiar, market-friendly figure. Warsh, who served as a Federal Reserve governor from 2006 to 2011, has long been a favorite in Republican policy circles and was previously on Trump’s shortlist for Treasury secretary during his first term. He is viewed by many investors as more skeptical of prolonged monetary accommodation and more receptive to critiques of the Fed’s post-crisis balance sheet expansion. A signal to markets — and the Fed. Trump’s renewed focus on Fed leadership underscores his desire to exert greater influence over monetary policy, a theme that has resurfaced as inflation, tariffs, and slowing global growth converge as economic risks. While Trump did not name Warsh directly, his emphasis on choosing someone “very respected” was widely interpreted in financial circles as pointing to a candidate with deep institutional credibility rather than a political outsider. Any formal nomination would still need Senate confirmation, setting the stage for a high-stakes political and economic debate over the Fed’s independence, its inflation mandate, and the direction of U.S. interest-rate policy heading into 2026. — USDA launches $100 million screwworm ‘grand challenge’ to shield U.S. livestockFunding push targets early detection, sterile-fly production, and regional defenses in Mexico and Central America USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins unveiled a new funding initiative aimed at preventing the New World screwworm (NWS) from advancing north and threatening U.S. livestock. The New World Screwworm Grand Challenge, led by USDA, is designed to accelerate innovation and strengthen regional defenses against the pest. The effort focuses on improving detection, preparedness, and response capabilities — particularly by expanding sterile-fly production and surveillance capacity in Mexico and Central America, where controlling outbreaks is critical to keeping the pest out of the United States. Rollins framed the initiative as both an agricultural and national security priority, emphasizing that protecting livestock health is essential to rebuilding the U.S. cattle herd, stabilizing supplies, and easing pressure on consumer food prices. Up to $100 million in funding. Through USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), the department plans to make up to $100 million available for projects that strengthen NWS prevention and response, with a focus on safeguarding U.S. animal health, agricultural trade, and rural economies. Priority areas for grants. USDA says proposals should support one or more of the following objectives:• Expanding and enhancing sterile New World screwworm fly production• Developing new traps and lures for improved detection• Advancing therapeutics or treatments to prevent, control, or treat NWS infestations in animals• Creating additional tools to bolster preparedness and rapid response Application details. The notice of funding opportunity is available on the NWS Grand Challenge webpage (link), as well as on ezFedGrants and Grants.gov (search: USDA-APHIS-10025-OA000000-26-0001). Application deadline: Feb. 23, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. ET. Applicants must be registered in the federal System for Award Management (SAM) prior to submission. USDA says additional background and ongoing updates are available at screwworm.gov, where stakeholders can also sign up for email alerts. Meanwhile, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins will participate in the Livestock Appreciation Day luncheon at the Fort Worth Stock Show & Rodeo today. She will deliver a keynote address during the luncheon, USDA said in a media advisory. — Winter storm to blanket much of the U.S. with snow, ice, and high windsForecasters warn of widespread travel disruptions, power outages, and dangerous conditions stretching from the Plains to the Northeast A powerful winter storm —one of the most far-reaching in years — is expected to sweep across a broad swath of the U.S. late this week and into the weekend, bringing a combination of heavy snow, crippling ice, and strong winds. According to outlooks from National Weather Service and private forecasters, the storm’s footprint could span more than 1,500 miles, impacting over two dozen states as it intensifies from Friday through Sunday. What to expect• Snow and ice begin Friday across the Central and Southern Plains, with precipitation rapidly intensifying overnight.• Saturday brings the most widespread impacts, as the storm expands eastward into the South and Mid-Atlantic, with a dangerous mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.• Sunday effects linger in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where accumulating snow and gusty winds could continue to disrupt travel. Key risks• Travel disruptions: Hazardous road conditions and major flight delays or cancellations are likely at airports along the storm’s path.• Power outages: Ice accretion in southern and transition zones could weigh down power lines and trees, raising the risk of long-lasting outages.• Blowing and drifting snow: Strong winds on the storm’s northern side may significantly reduce visibility and create near-blizzard conditions in open areas. Why this storm stands out. Meteorologists say the system’s combination of size, intensity, and mixed precipitation types makes it particularly disruptive. Ice in the South paired with heavy snow farther north increases the likelihood of both infrastructure damage and prolonged recovery times. Emergency managers are urging residents to finalize travel plans early, prepare for possible power loss, and closely monitor local forecasts as the storm track and precipitation bands become clearer over the next 24–48 hours. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
— Equities today: U.S. stocks were set for a second day of gains in a relief rally over Donald Trump backing down on Greenland. In Asia, Japan +1.7%. Hong Kong +0.2%. China +0.1%. India +0.5%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.4%. Paris +1.1%. Frankfurt +1.2%.
— Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Jan. 21 | Point Difference from Jan. 20 | % Difference from Jan. 20 |
| Dow | 49,077.23 | +588.64 | +1.21% |
| Nasdaq | 23,224.82 | +270.50 | +1.18% |
| S&P 500 | 6,875.62 | +78.76 | +1.16% |
— U.S. GDP growth accelerates to two-year high in Q3
Stronger exports and resilient consumers power an upward revision, while inventory drag fades
The U.S. economy grew at a 4.4% annualized rate in Q3 2025, a slight upward revision from the initial 4.3% estimate and the fastest pace since Q3 2023. The upgrade was driven mainly by stronger exports and a much smaller drag from inventories.
Growth was underpinned by robust consumer spending, which rose 3.5% — unchanged from the initial estimate but the fastest this year, accelerating from 2.5% in Q2. Exports surged 9.6%, revised up from 8.8%, rebounding sharply from a 1.8% decline the prior quarter, while imports fell 4.4%, extending Q2’s drop and adding to net exports’ contribution.
Government spending recovered, increasing 2.2% after contracting in Q2, and the inventory drag eased dramatically, subtracting just 0.12 percentage points from growth versus 3.44 points in Q2. Offsetting some momentum, fixed investment slowed, rising 0.8%, below the initial 1% estimate and down sharply from 4.4% in Q2.
— Gold pauses near records as Greenland tensions ease
Cooling U.S./EU dispute slows haven buying, but geopolitical and Fed risks keep bullion well supported
Gold prices steadied near record highs after tensions over Greenland cooled, easing the rush into safe assets. Bullion traded around $4,825 an ounce after Donald Trump dropped threatened tariffs on Europe following talks with Mark Rutte outlining a framework for a future deal.
While the immediate diplomatic risk faded, gold remains up nearly 11% this year and up 5% this week, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and renewed pressure from the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve — including efforts to remove a Fed governor that have drawn scrutiny from the Supreme Court.
Adding to the bullish backdrop, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end gold forecast to $5,400 an ounce, citing strong investor and central bank demand. Silver, platinum and palladium also edged higher, while the dollar was little changed.
— Corteva, Bayer settle long-running patent fight over Roundup-resistant corn
Companies end Delaware litigation tied to genetically modified corn traits after PTAB setbacks and Federal Circuit appeals stall
Corteva and Bayer have agreed to settle a federal patent-infringement lawsuit over genetically modified corn plants engineered to resist Monsanto’s Roundup herbicide, bringing an end to a case that had been largely on hold for more than a year.
Under an order approved Tuesday by Judge Gregory B. Williams in the U.S. District Court for the District of Delaware, all claims and defenses were dismissed with prejudice. The settlement covers three U.S. patents — Nos. 10,947,555, 11,149,283, and 11,299,745 — asserted by Corteva against Monsanto Co. and Bayer CropScience LLC, both units of Bayer’s crop science business.
Corteva, which markets its genetically modified corn under the Enlist brand, originally sued in August 2022, alleging that Roundup-resistant corn plants infringed its ‘555 patent covering certain proteins and genes designed to control both grass and broadleaf weeds. The company expanded its case in April 2023 to include two additional patents.
The litigation was effectively frozen after Judge Williams in January 2025 extended a yearlong stay while Corteva appealed adverse rulings from the Patent Trial and Appeal Board, which had found all asserted patent claims unpatentable. Earlier this month, Bayer informed the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit that it would not file briefs or participate in oral arguments in the consolidated appeals — a move that preceded the settlement.
Legal teams from Barnes & Thornburg LLP and Finnegan, Henderson, Farabow, Garrett & Dunner LLP represented Corteva, while Morris, Nichols, Arsht & Tunnell LLP and Williams & Connolly LLP appeared for Bayer.
— Berkshire Hathaway signals exit from Kraft Heinz after decade-long disappointment
In one of its first major capital moves under new CEO Greg Abel, Berkshire registers its full stake in Kraft Heinz, underscoring a rare Buffett-era misstep as the food giant prepares to break itself up
Berkshire Hathaway has taken a decisive step toward unwinding one of its most controversial investments, registering its 27.5% ownership stake in Kraft Heinz for potential sale. The filing clears the path for Berkshire to gradually or fully exit the position, marking one of the first high-profile portfolio decisions since Greg Abel formally succeeded Warren Buffett as chief executive.
The move effectively acknowledges that the 2015 Kraft–Heinz merger — once championed by Buffett as a textbook example of scale, brand power, and cost discipline — has failed to deliver. Since the merger closed, Kraft Heinz shares are down roughly 70%, making it one of the worst-performing large investments in Berkshire’s modern history.
From “iconic brands” to structural decline. At the time of the merger, Buffett and private-equity partner 3G Capital argued that iconic consumer brands combined with aggressive cost cutting would generate durable cash flows. Instead, the company struggled as consumer tastes shifted away from heavily processed foods, private-label competition intensified, and years of cost cuts hollowed out innovation and marketing.
Those pressures culminated in a 2019 accounting scandal and massive goodwill write-downs, permanently impairing investor confidence. While Kraft Heinz stabilized operations in recent years, revenue growth has remained sluggish, and the stock never recovered.
Breakup plans accelerate the exit. The timing of Berkshire’s registration filing is notable. Kraft Heinz has been actively exploring a breakup or asset separations, aiming to unlock value by splitting faster-growing brands from slower legacy lines. That strategy may offer Berkshire an opportunity to exit more cleanly, either into market strength around a restructuring or via negotiated block sales tied to asset transactions.
For Berkshire, registering the stake does not mandate an immediate sale, but it signals flexibility — and intent.
A post-Buffett portfolio shift. While Buffett remains chairman and retains influence, the Kraft Heinz decision highlights how Abel’s tenure may differ in tone if not philosophy. Abel has emphasized discipline and capital efficiency across Berkshire’s sprawling empire, and shedding a long-underperforming legacy holding fits with a more pragmatic approach.
The episode also reinforces a broader lesson often overlooked amid Buffett’s long record of success: even the most celebrated investors can misjudge structural change. In Kraft Heinz’s case, brand heritage proved far less durable than expected in a rapidly evolving global food market.
For Berkshire shareholders, the potential sale closes the book on a painful chapter — and offers a first glimpse of how capital allocation may evolve in the post-Buffett era.
— Supreme Court pushes back on Trump’s Fed power play
Justices signal skepticism over bid to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, citing risks to central bank independence
The Supreme Court of the United States expressed broad skepticism over President Donald Trump’s attempt to fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve, signaling she is likely to remain in her post while her legal challenge proceeds.
Justices across ideological lines stressed the importance of Fed independence, with Brett Kavanaugh warning that unchecked presidential firing authority could undermine monetary policy and invite retaliation by future presidents. Ketanji Brown Jackson echoed that Congress intentionally insulated the Fed from political pressure.
The court appeared divided on how broadly to rule — considering anything from a narrow procedural decision to a clearer definition of when a Fed governor may be fired “for cause.” Several justices criticized the administration’s emergency appeal and its failure to give Cook a formal hearing to contest mortgage-related allegations she denies.
While the case centers on Cook, it carries wider implications amid Trump’s escalating pressure on Fed leadership, including Chair Jerome Powell, with justices openly weighing warnings that undermining Fed independence could unsettle markets and risk economic fallout.
| AG MARKETS |
— USDA daily export sale:
• 192,350 MT soybeans to unknown destinations for 2025/26.
— Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Close Jan. 21 | Change vs Jan. 20 |
| Corn | March | $4.21 3/4 | -$0.02 |
| Soybeans | March | $10.64 1/2 | +$0.11 1/2 |
| Soybean Meal | March | $291.40 | -$0.20 |
| Soybean Oil | March | 54.01¢ | +1.45¢ |
| Wheat (SRW) | March | $5.07 3/4 | -$0.02 1/2 |
| Wheat (HRW) | March | $5.19 3/4 | -$0.03 1/4 |
| Spring Wheat | March | $5.63 3/4 | +$0.01 3/4 |
| Cotton | March | 64.30¢ | -0.04¢ |
| Live Cattle | February | $233.10 | +$0.72 1/2 |
| Feeder Cattle | March | $359.375 | +$1.70 |
| Lean Hogs | February | $87.85 | Unchanged |
| FARM POLICY |
— Soybean growers warn of deepening financial strain heading into 2026 planting season
American Soybean Association urges Congress to address uncovered 2025 losses as farmers await biofuel policy clarity and stronger domestic demand signals
Soybean farmers are entering the 2026 planting season under mounting financial pressure, with export market losses and rising costs continuing to squeeze farm balance sheets, according to the American Soybean Association.
In a news release, Scott Metzger, the association’s president, said growers are facing “dire economic conditions” and warned that existing aid programs are not covering the full scope of losses suffered from the 2025 crop year.
“Soybean farmers are facing dire economic conditions as we enter the 2026 planting season, and we urge Congress to address economic losses not covered by FBA while we wait for key biofuel policy action by the administration,” Metzger said.
Export losses and cash-flow stress. The association said prolonged weakness in export markets has been a major driver of the current downturn, eroding revenue even as input costs remain elevated. While Congress and the administration provided economic assistance over the past year, Metzger emphasized that the relief has not been sufficient to stabilize many operations.
“We are grateful for the support of Congress and the administration in providing economic assistance this past year, but export market losses continue to push soybean farmers to the brink,” he said.
Growers are now looking to lawmakers for additional short-term assistance to bridge what the association describes as “significant uncovered losses” tied to the 2025 crop, particularly as planting decisions for the coming season approach.
Biofuel policy seen as long-term demand boost. Looking beyond immediate aid, the association pointed to biofuel policy as a critical lever for improving the longer-term outlook for soy demand. Metzger said strong renewable volume obligations and final biofuel tax guidance from the administration would help bolster domestic consumption of soy-based biodiesel and renewable diesel.
“Strong renewable volume obligations and final biofuel tax guidance will support future domestic market demand for soy-based biodiesel and renewable diesel,” Metzger said, adding that farmers need interim support while those policies are finalized and take effect.
The message underscores a broader push by soybean growers to secure both near-term financial relief and longer-term policy certainty, as they navigate a challenging economic landscape heading into the next planting season.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
— Thursday: Oil slides as Trump softens geopolitical rhetoric, inventories weigh
Easing Greenland and Iran tensions deflate risk premium, while rising U.S. crude stocks cap prices despite firmer demand outlook
Oil prices fell Thursday, reversing gains from earlier in the week as investors dialed back geopolitical risk following softer rhetoric from Donald Trump and focused on an oversupplied market.
Brent crude dropped $1.25, 1.9%, to $63.99 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate for March slid $1.24, 2.1%, to $59.38 by early afternoon in London. The pullback followed two sessions of gains after output was temporarily halted at key fields in Kazakhstan, a member of OPEC+.
Analysts said the recent rally faded as geopolitical risk premiums ebbed with easing tensions around Greenland and reduced concern over potential supply disruptions from Iran. Trump ruled out using force over Greenland and stepped back from tariff threats aimed at European allies, while also signaling he hoped to avoid further U.S. military action involving Iran.
Markets also weighed Trump’s comments that the U.S. is “reasonably close” to a deal to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, and that he planned to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Any easing of sanctions on Russia would likely add supply and pressure prices.
On the fundamentals, the International Energy Agency nudged up its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast, implying a slightly narrower surplus. Still, U.S. inventory data underscored near-term headwinds: industry figures from the American Petroleum Institute showed crude stocks rose 3.04 million barrels last week, gasoline inventories jumped 6.21 million barrels, and distillate stocks dipped marginally.
— Wednesday: Oil prices edge higher as Kazakhstan outages and Venezuela constraints offset macro headwinds
Supply disruptions in the Caspian region and slower Venezuelan output support crude, though tariffs and inventory concerns cap gains
Oil prices finished modestly higher Wednesday as near-term supply risks helped offset broader macroeconomic and geopolitical worries.
Brent crude settled up 32 cents, 0.5%, at $65.24 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 26 cents, 0.4%, to $60.62.
Support continued to come from Kazakhstan after production was halted at the Tengiz and Korolev oilfields due to power distribution problems, extending gains from the prior session. Additional supply pressure emerged when oil from the Kashagan field was diverted to Kazakhstan’s domestic market for the first time, reflecting bottlenecks at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal following recent drone damage. The operator of the Tengiz field has since declared force majeure on CPC deliveries, with outages potentially lasting another seven to 10 days.
Prices were also underpinned by slower-than-expected progress in restoring Venezuelan output. Exports under a flagship supply arrangement with the United States totaled only about 7.8 million barrels, underscoring persistent logistical and operational constraints.
On the demand side, the International Energy Agency raised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast, narrowing its projected surplus. Still, gains were capped by rising geopolitical tensions, concerns that tariffs could weigh on economic growth, and expectations for higher U.S. crude and gasoline inventories ahead of delayed weekly stockpile data.
— Iowa House advances CO₂ eminent domain ban to Senate
Lawmakers split over property rights, ethanol markets as carbon pipeline fight resurfaces
The Iowa House of Representatives voted 64–28 on Wednesday to pass legislation blocking companies from using eminent domain to build carbon sequestration pipelines, sending the measure to the Senate for what is expected to be another contentious debate.
The bill, House File 2104, would prohibit eminent domain for carbon dioxide pipelines — a direct challenge to the proposed project by Summit Carbon Solutions, which received a permit and eminent domain authority from the Iowa Utilities Commission in 2024. House Republicans fast-tracked the measure this year amid continued landowner opposition.
Supporters framed the bill as a constitutional defense of private property. Rep. Steven Holt (R-Denison), the bill’s floor manager, argued that seizing land for a privately owned pipeline fails the “public use” test required under eminent domain law. “Economic benefit alone does not make this a public purpose,” Holt said.
Opponents countered that blocking eminent domain could derail market access for Iowa agriculture. Rep. Chad Ingels (R-Randalia), a fourth-generation farmer, said the pipeline would help ethanol and corn producers reach new low-carbon fuel markets, calling that benefit a “public good for all of Iowa.” He warned the bill would likely stop the project, pointing to South Dakota, where similar legislation has stalled Summit’s plans.
The debate echoes last year’s standoff, when the House passed multiple pipeline-related bills but only one advanced in the Senate — later vetoed by Kim Reynolds. That impasse briefly froze budget work when Senate Republicans demanded floor debate on eminent domain.
House Democrats largely opposed HF 2104, with Rep. Ross Wilburn (D-Ames) criticizing the bill as incomplete and faulting the governor for failing to broker a bipartisan solution. Wilburn and 19 other Democrats voted no, joined by several Republicans who raised constitutional and regulatory concerns.
In the Senate, Majority Leader Mike Klimesh has introduced alternative legislation, including proposals to allow pipelines to reroute around unwilling landowners and to impose a severance tax on transported CO₂. Pipeline opponents argue those measures fall short of protecting landowners from eminent domain.
With the House action, the carbon pipeline fight now shifts back to the Senate — setting up another high-stakes test of Republican unity, property rights, and the future of Iowa’s ethanol and carbon capture ambitions.
— First U.S. sales of Venezuelan crude reported
Valero and Phillips 66 Secure Initial Cargoes Under New Washington–Caracas Oil Export Agreement
U.S. refiners Valero Energy and Phillips 66 have made the first reported purchases of Venezuelan crude oil shipments tied to the recent agreement between the United States and Venezuela that allows Caracas to export up to roughly 50 million barrels of crude to U.S. buyers.
According to Reuters, the Houston-based refiners bought the Venezuelan barrels from trading firm Vitol, marking the initial transactions under U.S. authorization for Venezuelan crude exports following sanctions relief and broader political developments in Caracas.
The crude was sold at a discount of about $8.50 to $9.50 per barrel relative to Brent crude — a typical heavy benchmark — as traders sought to attract buyers given lingering market risk perceptions, sources familiar with the deals told the news service.
The reported sales come after a U.S./Venezuela oil supply deal valued at about $2 billion, under which Washington has authorized Venezuelan crude to be shipped to U.S. Gulf Coast refiners and other buyers. U.S. officials have said roughly $500 million in crude sales have already been completed under the program and that the U.S. is now fetching about 30 % higher prices for Venezuelan oil than were realized just weeks earlier under Venezuelan sales alone.
Neither the refiners involved nor the White House responded to Reuters’ requests for comment on the initial cargo purchases.
| TRADE POLICY |
— EU eyes March provisional start for Mercosur trade pact
Paraguay’s expected ratification could trigger early application, though legal challenges in Europe threaten delays
European Union officials expect the long-negotiated trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur to enter provisional application as early as March, according to an EU diplomat quoted by Reuters.
Under the EU’s interpretation of the deal, provisional application can begin once the first Mercosur country formally ratifies the agreement. EU officials believe Paraguay is likely to be the first mover, potentially clearing the way for the pact to take effect on a temporary basis within weeks.
“The EU-Mercosur agreement shall be applied provisionally once the first Mercosur country has ratified it,” the diplomat told Reuters. “That will probably be Paraguay in March.”
Legal uncertainty clouds timeline. Despite that optimism, the timetable remains vulnerable to political and legal challenges inside Europe. Members of the European Parliament have referred the agreement to the European Court of Justice, seeking clarification on whether the deal’s structure and ratification process comply with EU law.
That review could significantly slow implementation. Legal proceedings at the court can take up to two years, raising the possibility that even a provisional rollout could be delayed or complicated if the court rules that additional approvals are required.
High stakes for agriculture and trade. The EU-Mercosur agreement is one of the bloc’s most consequential trade deals, covering market access for agricultural products, industrial goods and services between Europe and South America. It has been politically sensitive in several EU member states, particularly over concerns about agricultural competition, environmental standards and enforcement.
For now, EU officials appear eager to use provisional application to lock in momentum — provided at least one Mercosur partner ratifies the pact — while the broader legal and political battles continue in Europe.
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
— FCC signals crackdown on late-night TV’s political guest lineups
Long-dormant “equal time” rules could force talk shows to balance candidate appearances, raising new risks for programs often targeted by President Trump
Federal Communications Commission (FCC) regulators are preparing to tighten oversight of late-night television by reviving and actively enforcing long-standing rules that require broadcasters to provide equal airtime to political candidates with opposing views.
The FCC said it plans to apply the so-called “equal time” requirement more aggressively when network talk shows invite political candidates as guests. Under the policy, if one legally qualified candidate for office appears on a broadcast, rival candidates are entitled to comparable airtime if they request it.
A rule long on the books, rarely enforced. The equal time rule has existed for decades but has largely faded from day-to-day enforcement, particularly in the era of entertainment-focused late-night programming. Networks historically relied on exemptions for bona fide news interviews or argued that comedy and talk shows did not meaningfully influence electoral outcomes.
FCC officials now suggest that interpretation may narrow, especially when candidates appear in clearly promotional or politically advantageous settings. Media lawyers say that shift could lower the bar for filing formal complaints and force broadcasters to defend booking decisions that once drew little regulatory scrutiny.
Conservative pressure and political context. The renewed emphasis follows years of conservative criticism that late-night television disproportionately features Democratic politicians while excluding Republicans. Those complaints have intensified as President Donald Trump has repeatedly attacked specific programs he views as hostile.
Analysts say the FCC’s posture could make it easier to challenge shows that Trump regularly criticizes, including Jimmy Kimmel Live! and The View. While both programs blend entertainment with political commentary, appearances by active candidates — rather than elected officials speaking in a non-campaign capacity — would be most vulnerable under stricter enforcement.
Potential chilling effect on bookings. Broadcasters warn that a tougher equal-time regime could discourage them from inviting any political candidates at all, especially during election cycles. Providing matching airtime to multiple opponents can be logistically difficult and risky, particularly in crowded primary fields.
“This doesn’t mean every joke or political comment triggers regulation,” one media analyst said. “But once a candidate is clearly using a show as a campaign platform, networks may decide it’s safer not to book candidates in the first place.”
What happens next. The FCC has not issued a formal rulemaking but has signaled that enforcement guidance and complaint reviews will reflect the tougher stance. That leaves networks facing new uncertainty as the 2026 election cycle accelerates — and raises the prospect that late-night television, long a political battleground in rhetoric, could soon become one in regulatory practice as well.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Scattered snow squalls to create dangerous travel from the interior Northeast to northern/central New England through Friday… …Dangerously cold Arctic air spills out over the Great Plains and Eastern U.S through the weekend…. …Major Winter storm to bring crippling ice and sleet to portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley Friday.
