Trump to Speak in Clive, Iowa Tuesday — Biofuels Policy in Focus Amid E15 Backlash
Senators urge USDA to restore buy-up prevented plant coverage
| LINKS |
Link: Why the Farm Aid Debate Matters:
Putting Farmer Aid Programs in Perspective
Link: GOP Divisions Stall Year-Round E15 as House and
Some Senate Leaders Balk
Link: Hoeven Pushes $15B Farmer Aid as Stopgap Amid Price Squeeze
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 16
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 16
| Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Jan. 23, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— Trump to speak in Clive, Iowa — E15 backlash: President Donald Trump opens a series of weekly stops in Iowa, with ethanol policy looming after Congress punted year-round E15, frustrating corn and biofuel groups.
— White House sideline doomed year-round E15: Stakeholders say the E15 provision failed due to lack of White House pressure, not lack of votes, allowing leadership to replace legislation with a study council.
— Trump escalates pressure on Iran: The administration pairs naval deployments with new sanctions as Trump warns Tehran over protest crackdowns while signaling he prefers to avoid direct conflict.
— House passes DHS funding with limited Democratic support: Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) advances FY 2026 funding bills; DHS narrowly passes amid ICE backlash as seven Democrats break with Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).
— Storm threatens Senate funding sprint: Winter weather, immigration fights, and GOP infighting complicate Majority Leader John Thune’s (R-S.D.) effort to pass the final six-bill package before the Jan. 31 deadline.
— Trump signals Fed chair decision is near: Trump says interviews are complete and he has a preferred candidate, but stops short of naming the next Federal Reserve chair.
— U.S. seeks expanded military access in Greenland: Talks with Denmark aim to loosen limits on U.S. forces as Greenland signals openness to stronger defenses if it has a say.
— Canada begins ag job cuts under Carney: Workforce reductions start at Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada amid fiscal tightening, with unconfirmed reports of possible research-facility closures.
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Markets mixed: U.S. futures edge lower; gold hits new highs, copper rallies, the yen surges, and the Bank of Japan signals more rate hikes ahead.
— Equities recap: Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all rose Thursday, posting solid daily gains.
AG MARKETS
— Fertilizer outlook: Volatility expected to ease in 2026, but prices remain historically high, especially for import-dependent potash.
— India cancels soybean oil imports: Weak rupee and higher prices prompt buyers to cancel South American shipments in favor of cheaper oils.
— Cotton AWP lower: Adjusted World Price falls, raising the LDP slightly.
— Ag futures recap: Mixed grain trade; soy meal higher, soy oil lower; livestock mostly weaker except hogs.
FARM POLICY
— Senators push USDA on prevented planting buy-ups: Bipartisan lawmakers urge USDA to restore buy-up coverage they say is required by law and critical amid weather risk.
— ARPC backs growers: A new white paper finds ending prevented-plant buy-ups shifts risk to farmers without actuarial justification.
— USDA launches foreign farmland portal: New online tool allows public reporting of foreign purchases of U.S. agricultural land.
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil rebounds Friday: Prices rise on renewed Iran tensions and Kazakhstan supply outages.
— Oil slides Thursday: Crude falls as geopolitical risk premiums ease and inventories rise.
TRADE POLICY
— Lutnick warns on Canada-China pivot: Commerce Secretary says Prime Minister Mark Carney’s China outreach could complicate the July USMCA review.
— Commerce extends strawberry dumping timeline: Agency delays decision on whether the Mexico winter strawberry petition meets industry-support thresholds.
— China courts U.S. allies: Beijing seeks advantage as alliances strain, but partners hedge rather than realign, per the Wall Street Journal.
CHINA
— TikTok deal finalized: New joint venture secures U.S. operations and data control, resolving long-running national security concerns.
POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Democrats see clearer Senate path in 2026: Inside Elections says the map has broadened, though Republicans remain favored.
— Klobuchar moves toward Minnesota governor bid: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) files exploratory paperwork, potentially opening a Senate seat.
WEATHER
— NWS warns of major winter storm: Heavy snow, ice, and dangerous cold expected across large swaths of the Plains, Midwest, South, and Northeast.
TOP STORIES—Trump to speak in Clive, Iowa Tuesday — biofuels policy in focus amid E15 backlashPresident Trump will speak at the Horizon Events Center in Clive, Iowa, Tuesday on the first stop of weekly visits across the U.S. ahead of the midterm elections; he’s also tentatively set to tour an ethanol facility in central Iowa President Donald Trump is scheduled to address supporters and stakeholders Tuesday at the Horizon Events Center in Clive, Iowa, kicking off a series of weekly public visits across the country ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Trump is also tentatively planning a tour of an ethanol production facility in the central Iowa area as part of the visit — a gesture aimed at underscoring support for rural energy and agriculture sectors. A central theme likely to shadow his remarks is the recent congressional developments on year-round E15 fuel policy, a contentious issue among corn producers and biofuel stakeholders. Here’s what’s at stake and how the President might approach it: Congressional setback on year-round E15 Sparks Corn Belt frustration • Legislative pause: On Jan. 22, the U.S. House of Representatives failed to include language authorizing permanent year-round sales of E15 gasoline — a higher-ethanol fuel blend than the more common E10 — in a must-pass funding package. Instead, lawmakers opted to create a so-called E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council to study the issue further, a move that disappointed many in the farm and biofuel communities. • Industry reaction: Corn growers and ethanol advocates have reacted sharply; the Iowa Corn Growers Association characterized the decision as a frustrating delay on a policy they’ve worked on for years and an inadequate substitute for legislative action. • Political rifts: The episode reflects GOP divisions — with farm-state Republicans pushing for E15 language and House leadership wary of attaching energy policy riders to spending bills, even as a handful of oil-state and small-refiner interests have balked at broad ethanol mandates. Where Trump stands (and what he might say) •Past actions: The Trump administration has previously deployed EPA waivers to expand E15 availability, especially for summer sales nationwide, and senior officials, including USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, have emphasized Trump’s support for ethanol and year-round E15 policy in principle. •Anticipated messaging: In Iowa — a key state for both ethanol production and Republican electoral strategy — Trump is expected to reaffirm his commitment to rural energy and farm incomes. That could include comments on the need for more certainty in E15 policy and disappointment with Congress’ inability to finalize a bipartisan solution on year-round sales. •Balancing act: However, Trump may also seek to navigate a middle path between biofuel backers and energy and appropriations priorities within his own party, especially given the competing legislative pressures around funding bills and midterm power dynamics. Biofuel stakeholders’ perspective • Corn producers: Many in the corn and ethanol industries see permanent year-round E15 access as crucial to expanding markets for domestic feedstocks and boosting rural economies. The recent congressional pivot to a task force rather than a legislative fix has been labeled “disgusting” and “offensive” by some industry leaders. • Trade groups: Organizations like Growth Energy, which supported EPA waivers for E15 and broader access, have pushed for Trump’s continued partnership on ethanol policy, seeing Iowa events and facility tours as opportunities to reinforce those priorities. Of note: The legislative push would permit year-round E15 sales by eliminating the long-standing summer restriction, but it would stop short of mandating expanded ethanol use. As a result, it would not resolve uncertainty surrounding RFS volume requirements for 2026 and 2027, which have yet to be submitted to the Office of Management and Budget. While ethanol backers argue the change would spur infrastructure investment, E15 remains available at only about 4,300 of more than 100,000 fueling stations nationwide, with most recent expansion concentrated in the Midwest. Bottom Line: Trump’s remarks in Clive are likely to emphasize his administration’s past and ongoing support for American biofuels — particularly E15 — while acknowledging the frustration among corn growers and ethanol producers over Congress’s recent delay. The speech will be closely watched in Iowa and beyond as a signal of his 2026 political strategy and commitment to energy and agricultural constituencies.—White House sideline on year-round E15 proved decisiveStakeholders say lack of political pressure — not lack of votes — doomed year-round ethanol provision Multiple lawmakers, industry advocates and policy insiders say the White House’s decision not to actively press Congress on year-round E15 sales played a decisive role in the provision’s collapse, reinforcing claims that the policy failed more from inaction than opposition. In interviews with stakeholders, reporters were told the administration did not exert sustained political pressure on House or Senate leadership, nor did it publicly elevate E15 as a must-pass priority during negotiations on the FY 2026 funding package. Several sources said that if the White House had leaned in — through direct calls, public messaging, or leverage with leadership — the measure likely would have cleared Congress. Year-round E15 enjoys bipartisan backing, strong support from farm-state lawmakers, governors, and the ethanol sector, and has repeatedly demonstrated vote viability in both chambers. But without a clear signal that the administration was willing to expend political capital, leadership opted to avoid a contentious fight with refinery-aligned lawmakers, instead omitting the language and substituting a process-driven rural energy council. The White House’s silence was especially notable to biofuel groups, who have sharply criticized Congress for punting despite years of negotiations and a prior agreement framework with parts of the petroleum industry. Advocates say the episode underscores a familiar dynamic in Washington: broadly supported energy and agriculture policies can still fail absent active executive-branch engagement. In short, E15 did not fall short because it lacked support — it fell short because it lacked muscle.—Trump elevates pressure on Iran with naval deployment and sanctionsU.S. bolsters military presence and targets Iranian regime over protest crackdown as tensions simmer President Donald Trump has intensified U.S. pressure on Iran, coupling economic penalties with a significant military signal amid ongoing unrest and a violent government crackdown on nationwide protests. On Jan. 22–23, Trump announced that a U.S. naval “armada,” including the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and multiple guided-missile destroyers, is heading toward the Gulf region with Iran as the focal point, underscoring that Washington is “watching Iran” closely even as he expressed a preference to avoid direct conflict. The move follows weeks of Trump’s warnings that Iranian authorities would “pay a big price” if they continued killing demonstrators, telling reporters that he hoped military force would not be necessary but that U.S. forces are positioned “just in case.” Alongside the military positioning, the U.S. Treasury Department — at Trump’s direction — has imposed sanctions on key Iranian leaders and financial networks tied to the regime’s repression of protesters and its broader economic apparatus. The sanctions target individuals and entities involved in human rights abuses and illicit financial activities that support Iran’s security services. Tehran’s leadership has denounced Trump’s stance, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei labeling U.S. support for protests as foreign interference and vowing resistance, while Iranian officials also denied Trump’s claims about preventing planned executions. This combination of strategic naval deployment, sanctions escalation, and public threats reflects a Trump administration effort to exert maximum pressure on Iran amid one of the most volatile periods in Tehran’s recent history. —7 House Dems break with Jeffries to pass DHS funding despite ICE backlashJohnson hails return to regular order as DHS measure narrowly passes amid ICE oversight fight The House on Thursday approved its final slate of FY 2026 appropriations bills, marking the first time Congress has completed full-year funding for the entire federal government since March 2024 and delivering a major procedural win for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.). Lawmakers passed a three-bill minibus by a decisive 341–88 vote, funding the Departments of Defense, Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, Health and Human Services, Labor, Education, and related agencies. The most contentious component — the Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS) bill — passed separately 220–207, largely along party lines. The lone Republican no was Rep. Thomas Massie (Ky.), a frequent thorn in the side of the GOP leadership. DHS bill drives partisan clash. Democrats opposed the DHS measure amid heightened tensions following the fatal shooting of Minneapolis resident Renee Good by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer. Liberals argued the bill fell short on oversight and accountability for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). To win limited Democratic support, the bill includes targeted concessions: a $115 million cut to ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations, 5,500 fewer detention beds, a $1.8 billion reduction in Border Patrol funding, and strengthened oversight via the DHS Inspector General and Office for Civil Rights and Civil Liberties. Even so, only seven Democrats voted yes. A procedural milestone. Johnson framed the votes as a return to regular order, saying the House is rebuilding Congress’ “muscle memory” on funding. “We’re returning the appropriations process to a committee-led, member-driven approach,” he said, emphasizing the absence of a leadership-negotiated omnibus. Even House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) credited lawmakers with “significant progress” in funding the government consistent with their values. House Appropriations Chairman Tom Cole (R-Okla.) underscored the stakes on the floor: “We aren’t here for just another stopgap temporary fix. We’re here to finish the job by providing full-year funding.” What’s next. The House will bundle these four bills with a two-bill minibus passed last week and send the full package to the Senate, which is expected to take it up when it returns from recess ahead of the Jan. 30 deadline. (See next item for Senate details.) The votes cap a turbulent fiscal year that began with a record-long government shutdown and a reliance on a full-year continuing resolution extending Biden-era funding levels. Despite lingering conservative complaints about earmarks and program spending, the House’s action signals a shift away from serial CRs toward completing all 12 appropriations bills on time. Lesson learned: When lawmakers from both political parties do their job, there is no need for a government shutdown. —Storm threatens Senate “sprint” as funding deadline loomsWinter weather, immigration tensions, and GOP infighting complicate effort to pass final six-bill package before Jan. 31 shutdown deadline Senators are preparing for a potentially weather-shortened week just as they race to pass the final six government funding bills, with a Jan. 31 deadline approaching to avoid a partial shutdown. A major winter storm forecast to hit the Mid-Atlantic and Washington, D.C., could disrupt travel, compressing an already tight legislative schedule. As of late week, senators had not received formal guidance from leadership on whether to return Monday, prompting airline delay alerts and private concerns about floor time. Any travel disruptions would further narrow the window to resolve lingering disputes surrounding the more than $1.2 trillion spending package. Homeland Security is the flashpoint. The most contentious issue remains the Homeland Security funding bill, which has become entangled in the broader political fight over immigration. Senate Democrats are weighing whether their dissatisfaction with the DHS measure is strong enough to jeopardize the entire six-bill package, which also includes State-Foreign Operations, Financial Services, Defense, Labor-HHS-Education, and Transportation-HUD. While Democrats privately expect the package to pass, few are publicly committing. Only seven House Democrats joined most Republicans in approving DHS funding earlier this week. Republicans in the Senate will need Democratic votes, particularly with Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) planning to oppose the package and urging other GOP senators to follow suit over funding for refugee welfare programs. At the same time, several Democrats are threatening to vote no, arguing the bill does too little to rein in ICE — a move that would force them to oppose the entire six-bill package. Appropriators are viewed as the most likely Democratic supporters, along with members of the caucus who helped Republicans end the record shutdown in November. House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said Democrats will “evaluate the totality of the package.” Despite the friction, Hill Republicans say they do not expect a shutdown — a contrast with President Trump’s warning earlier in the week. GOP unease on earmarks and oversight. Republican leadership is also facing pressure from within its own ranks. A group of Senate conservatives, including Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), is pushing for a vote to strip earmarks from the package, adding another obstacle for Majority Leader Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), who has repeatedly had to negotiate with internal holdouts to advance funding bills. Separately, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) is objecting to House-passed language overturning a policy that allowed senators to receive compensation if their records were unknowingly seized during a Biden-era investigation involving President Trump. Graham said no executive branch agency should access lawmakers’ phone or location data without notice if no crime has been committed. Thune was warned by Speaker Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.), who called the policy “a bad look for the Senate” and said he was willing to engage directly with affected senators. But with the provision now embedded in the must-pass Homeland Security bill, senators may ultimately have to accept it. Bottom Line: With winter weather threatening attendance, immigration politics dividing Democrats, and conservatives pressing leadership, the Senate faces a narrow and politically fraught path to avoiding a shutdown before Jan. 31. —Trump wraps Fed chair interviews, signals decision nearPresident says he has a preferred pick but declines to name successor as shortlist narrows and internal frustrations surface President Donald Trump said Thursday that he has completed interviews for the next chair of the Federal Reserve and has already settled on a preferred candidate, though he is not yet ready to make the selection public. “I’ll be telling you soon. I have somebody that I think will be very good but I’m not going to reveal it,” Trump told reporters. Trump’s shortlist reportedly includes Kevin Hassett, Rick Rieder, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. Hassett had previously been viewed as a leading contender, but Trump has recently suggested he may prefer to keep him in his current White House role. Bloomberg cited people familiar with the process say the president has privately expressed some frustration with the available options, underscoring lingering uncertainty even as Trump signals a decision is imminent. —U.S. seeks expanded military access in Greenland as talks with Denmark advanceNegotiators look to ease limits on American forces while Greenland signals openness to stronger defenses — so long as the island has a say The U.S. is pressing to revise its defense agreement with Denmark to loosen restrictions on the American military presence in Greenland, as negotiators work to align with priorities set by President Donald Trump. Talks are ongoing. Greenland’s prime minister, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, said he is open to strengthening the island’s defenses — including the possibility of a permanent NATO presence — while emphasizing that Greenland must be directly involved in decisions affecting its future. Separately, lawmakers in the European Union are preparing to resume votes on ratifying the U.S./EU trade deal after recent tensions between the two sides eased. —Canada begins ag-related job cuts under Carney cost-cutting pushAgriculture and Agri-Food Canada employees notified as Ottawa moves ahead with workforce reductions Cuts are beginning at Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) as part of the Carney government’s broader effort to rein in federal operating costs, marking the first concrete step in a wider public-service spending squeeze. AAFC employees whose positions are affected by a formal “workforce adjustment” were scheduled to receive official notice Jan. 22. The move signals that agriculture is now among the departments being drawn into the government’s fiscal tightening, following months of warnings that staffing reductions would accompany efforts to curb deficits and slow spending growth. While the full scope of the AAFC cuts has not been publicly detailed, workforce adjustments typically involve position eliminations, redeployments, or early-exit options, depending on collective agreements and operational needs. Employees receiving notices are expected to be given information on transition support measures, including potential reassignment opportunities within the federal system. The reductions come at a sensitive moment for Canada’s agriculture sector, which is facing ongoing pressure from high input costs, trade uncertainty, and climate-related disruptions. Any contraction in departmental staffing could raise concerns among farm groups and agribusiness stakeholders about service delivery, program administration, and the government’s capacity to respond quickly to sector-specific challenges. Meanwhile, AAFC research facilities reported facing closure amid workforce cuts. There are multiple reports that, alongside cuts to roughly 665 jobs at Agriculture and Agri‑Food Canada, a couple of its research facilities are reported to be on the chopping block as part of the current federal spending review. Social-media posts and local political comments on Jan. 22 say the Lacombe Research and Development Centre in Alberta and the Nappan Research Farm in Nova Scotia are being shut down due to the cuts. Officials at those facilities and AAFC have not yet publicly confirmed formal closure decisions, timelines, or details about what specific research programs might be discontinued. In short, while closures of AAFC research sites are being reported and widely discussed, they remain unofficial until the government or department issues formal announcements. The Carney government has framed the cuts as part of a necessary effort to restore fiscal discipline across Ottawa, with additional departments expected to face similar workforce actions in the coming months. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Financials today: U.S. stock-index futures drifted lower, with the S&P 500 heading for the first back-to-back weekly losses since June. Gold briefly rose above $4,950 an ounce. Meanwhile, copper climbed toward $13,000 a ton, rising along with other metals in a rally fueled by a broad investor rotation away from currencies and sovereign bonds. The yen surged against the dollar, capping a volatile week in Tokyo markets. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama declined to answer when asked if Japan had intervened. The Bank of Japan held rates steady but signaled more hikes are coming, as expected. In Asia, Japan +0.3%. Hong Kong +0.5%. China +0.3%. India -0.9%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.1%. Paris -0.3%. Frankfurt +0.1%.
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Jan. 22 | Point Difference from Jan. 21 | % Difference from Jan. 21 |
| Dow | 49,384.01 | +306.78 | +0.63% |
| Nasdaq | 23,436.02 | +211.20 | +0.91% |
| S&P 500 | 6,913.35 | +37.73 | +0.55% |
| AG MARKETS |
—Fertilizer markets brace for calmer 2026, but prices stay historically high
Trade thaw with China and tariff rollbacks could ease volatility, though global risks and import dependence keep costs elevated
Expect 2026 to bring less volatility to fertilizer prices, even as markets remain well above long-term norms, analysts note. Industry outlooks point to a steadier year ahead as geopolitical unknowns persist, but trade conditions improve, helped by thawing relations between the United States and China and the rollback of certain fertilizer tariffs.
That trade shift matters because the U.S. fertilizer balance is uneven across nutrients:
•Nitrogen: The U.S. meets most of its own demand, limiting exposure to overseas disruptions and cushioning price swings.
•Potash: The U.S. imports about 95% of what it uses, leaving prices far more sensitive to trade policy, logistics, and geopolitics.
• Phosphate: Sits between the two—domestic supply helps, but global factors still influence pricing.
Despite the expected calm, prices remain elevated. Fertilizer costs are roughly 14% higher than a year ago and more than double levels seen a decade earlier. The good news for growers is that prices have retreated from last year’s highs and are well below the record levels of 2022, easing some pressure ahead of spring planning.
Bottom Line: 2026 may feel steadier than the last few years, but fertilizer markets are settling at a higher plateau, with potash the key wildcard as trade and geopolitics evolve.
—India cancels more South American soybean oil imports
Weak rupee widens price gap, prompting buyers to turn to cheaper oils
India, the world’s largest vegetable oil buyer, has canceled additional soybean oil shipments from South America as a record-low rupee made imports uneconomical, Bloomberg reported.
About 35,000–40,000 metric tons from Brazil and Argentina have been scrapped so far, with total cancellations likely to exceed 50,000 tons, according to Aashish Acharya of Patanjali Foods Ltd.. That follows more than 100,000 tons of canceled Argentine deals in December.
The weaker rupee and higher global prices have pushed South American soybean oil $25–$30 per ton above local supplies, leading buyers to back out of contracts and shift toward cheaper tropical oils, Bloomberg said.
—Cotton AWP moves lower. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton is at 50.99 cents per pound, effective today (Jan. 23), down from 51.17 cents per pound the prior week, ending the string of weekly increases at four weeks. The AWP results in an LDP of 1.01 cents, up from 0.83 cent the prior week.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Close Jan. 22 | Change from Jan. 21 |
| Corn | March | $4.24 | +2 1/4¢ |
| Soybeans | March | $10.64 | -1/2¢ |
| Soybean Meal | March | $296.20 | +$4.80 |
| Soybean Oil | March | 53.78¢ | -23 pts |
| Wheat (SRW) | March | $5.15 1/2 | +7 3/4¢ |
| Wheat (HRW) | March | $5.25 3/4 | +6¢ |
| Wheat (Spring) | March | $5.73 3/4 | +10¢ |
| Cotton | March | 63.88¢ | -42 pts |
| Live Cattle | February | $232.375 | -72 1/2¢ |
| Feeder Cattle | March | $359.275 | -10¢ |
| Lean Hogs | February | $88.475 | +62 1/2¢ |
| FARM POLICY |
—Senators urge USDA to restore buy-up prevented plant coverage
Bipartisan lawmakers warn that eliminating additional coverage undermines crop insurance certainty for farmers facing weather and disaster risks
A bipartisan group of U.S. senators is pressing USDA to reverse a recent crop-insurance rule they say strips farmers of a critical risk-management option when disasters prevent planting.
In a Jan. 22 letter (link) to USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, the senators objected to Section VI of USDA’s Expanding Access to Risk Protection (EARP) rule, finalized in November, which eliminates producers’ ability to purchase additional “buy-up” coverage for prevented planting. The lawmakers argue the change comes at precisely the wrong time, as growers face heightened weather volatility, tight margins, and rising production risks.
“Beginning with the 1995 crop year, the Corporation shall offer to producers additional prevented planting coverage,” the senators wrote, citing federal statute. They stressed that while Congress has occasionally stepped in with ad hoc disaster aid, such assistance is never guaranteed and cannot replace standing insurance protections embedded in law.
According to USDA data referenced in the letter, removing the buy-up option affects more than 67 million acres across all 50 states and all covered commodities in 2025 alone — an impact the lawmakers say underscores the breadth of the policy shift and its potential consequences for producers nationwide.
The letter was led by Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), chairman of the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Committee, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), the committee’s ranking member. They were joined by Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) and Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.), along with a broad bipartisan roster that included Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.), Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), and others.
Besides Secretary Rollins, the lawmakers copied senior USDA and crop-insurance officials, including the Farm Production and Conservation undersecretary, the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation board chairman, and the Risk Management Agency administrator — signaling they expect a policy-level reconsideration rather than a technical tweak.
The senators urged USDA, besides restoring the provision for 2026, to restore access to additional prevented planting coverage beginning with the 2027 crop year and beyond, arguing it provides a necessary layer of certainty “when disasters beyond producers’ control render them unable to plant a crop.” Without it, they warned, farmers are left more exposed at a time when Congress and the administration have emphasized strengthening, not weakening, the crop insurance safety net.
Background. USDA’s final rule released via the Federal Register on Nov 28, 2025, removed “buy-up” coverage for prevented planting across the federal crop insurance program. Prevented planting coverage will remain at the basic level, but USDA said producers will no longer be able to pay a higher premium to receive the additional 5-percentage-point indemnity that buy-up coverage provided. USDA said the buy-up option had disproportionately benefited producers in the Prairie Pothole Region — particularly in the Dakotas — where most prevented planting payments occur, and is no longer necessary given Congress’ repeated use of ad-hoc disaster assistance to address widespread flooding. The rule cited past supplemental aid, such as 2019 “top-off” payments that added 10–15% to prevented planting indemnities, as evidence that Congress has historically stepped in when systemic flooding warrants additional relief.
Note: An Agricultural Risk Policy Center paper (link; see next item) concludes that USDA’s decision to eliminate the remaining 5% prevented planting buy-up removes an actuarially sound, targeted risk-management tool and shifts more early-season weather risk back onto farmers, particularly in high-risk regions and crops. Using 2011–2024 crop insurance data, the white paper finds no evidence that buy-up coverage was mispriced or encouraged adverse selection, yet its removal will reduce prevented planting payments by roughly $18–26 per indemnified corn acre and $14–21 per soybean acre before disaster aid, with meaningful residual losses even after ad-hoc programs. The analysis also shows that disaster assistance only partially offsets the lost coverage and that replacing buy-ups by increasing overall coverage would raise producer-paid premiums by about 14–29% and is impossible for producers already near the 85% coverage ceiling, leaving many farmers with permanently reduced planting-season protection.
Whether USDA revisits the rule will be closely watched by farm groups and insurers alike, as prevented planting coverage has become an increasingly important backstop amid extreme weather, flooding, and delayed spring fieldwork across large swaths of the country.
—ARPC: Ending prevented planting buy-ups shifts risk back to farmers
White paper finds buy-up coverage was actuarially sound, but its elimination will raise costs and leave losses uncovered
The Agricultural Risk Policy Center (ARPC) at North Dakota State University concludes that USDA’s decision to eliminate the remaining 5% prevented planting (PP) buy-up option removes a targeted, actuarially sound risk-management tool and shifts early-season risk back onto producers, particularly in high-risk regions. The analysis is laid out in ARPC White Paper 2026-02, released Jan. 20. Link.
Key findings from the paper:
• No actuarial justification for removal: Using policy-level data from 2011–2024, ARPC finds the PP buy-up option performed similarly to base policies. The buy-up component posted a cumulative loss ratio of about 0.82, compared with roughly 0.87 for base-only coverage, indicating it was appropriately priced and did not create systemic adverse selection.
• Losses concentrated by crop and region: Buy-up indemnities were heavily concentrated in corn and rice, with the largest exposure in North Dakota and South Dakota for corn and in Arkansas and California for rice. County-level data show the greatest impacts clustered in the eastern Dakotas and Red River Valley.
•Meaningful per-acre losses for producers: Eliminating the 5% buy-up reduces prevented planting payments by an estimated $18–26 per indemnified corn acre and $14–21 per soybean acre when no ad-hoc aid is available. Even after accounting for recent disaster programs, residual losses still range from roughly $4–24 per acre, depending on year and program design.
• Ad-hoc disaster aid is an incomplete substitute: Offset-based formulas in programs such as ERP and SDRP reduce payments to producers who previously bought higher insurance coverage, meaning disaster aid only partially and inconsistently replaces lost buy-up protection.
• Replacing buy-ups via higher coverage is costly or impossible: To approximate lost PP protection, farmers would need to raise overall coverage levels, increasing producer-paid premiums by an estimated 14–29%, or about $2–5 per acre annually. Producers already near the 85% coverage ceiling cannot fully substitute at all.
• Past experience suggests slow adjustment: After the 10% buy-up was eliminated in 2018, producers gradually shifted to higher coverage levels over several years but did not fully close the protection gap — an adjustment pattern ARPC expects to repeat after the change.
Bottom Line: ARPC concludes the EARP rule simplifies program design but does so at the cost of reduced producer flexibility and greater exposure to early-season weather risk — especially in regions where prevented planting losses have historically been most severe — without clear actuarial evidence that the buy-up option needed to be eliminated.
—USDA launches online portal to track foreign purchases of U.S. farmland
New reporting tool aims to strengthen enforcement of disclosure rules and protect agricultural land under the National Farm Security Action Plan
USDA launched a new online portal (link) that allows the public to report purchases of U.S. agricultural land by foreign persons, companies, and governments, marking a significant expansion of the department’s enforcement toolkit on foreign ownership of farmland.
According to a USDA news release, the website is designed to make it easier for individuals to flag transactions that may fall under the Agricultural Foreign Investment Disclosure Act (AFIDA), which requires foreign persons to disclose acquisitions or interests in U.S. farmland. The portal enables users to submit information directly to USDA for review, adding a public-facing layer to what has traditionally been a compliance system reliant on self-reporting.
USDA said the portal is part of a broader effort to strengthen oversight as it implements the National Farm Security Action Plan, an initiative focused on safeguarding U.S. agricultural assets, supply chains, and rural communities from national security and economic risks. Foreign ownership of farmland has drawn increased scrutiny from lawmakers in recent years, particularly amid concerns involving adversarial governments, data security, and proximity of agricultural land to military installations or critical infrastructure.
Department officials emphasized that the portal is intended to support — not replace — existing reporting requirements, and that submissions will be reviewed to determine whether additional investigation or enforcement action is warranted. USDA has authority under AFIDA to pursue civil penalties for noncompliance, including fines tied to the value of the land involved.
The launch comes as Congress continues to debate tighter restrictions on foreign ownership of agricultural land, with several states already moving ahead with their own bans or reporting enhancements. USDA officials framed the portal as a transparency and enforcement measure rather than a change in law, but one that reflects heightened federal attention to who owns — and controls — America’s farmland.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Friday: Oil rebounds as Trump renews Iran threats, Kazakhstan outages linger
Geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions push crude prices toward weekly gains
Oil prices rebounded Friday as renewed geopolitical risks overshadowed recent easing on trade concerns.
Brent crude rose 76 cents, 1.2%, to $64.82 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 75 cents, or 1.3%, to $60.11. Both benchmarks were on track for weekly gains of roughly 1.1%.
The bounce followed fresh warnings from Donald Trump, who said the United States has an “armada” heading toward Iran, raising concerns that military escalation could disrupt crude flows. Trump said he hoped force would not be necessary but reiterated warnings to Tehran against killing protesters or restarting its nuclear program. A U.S. official said warships, including an aircraft carrier and guided-missile destroyers, are expected to arrive in the Middle East in the coming days.
Markets had swung earlier in the week on Trump’s Greenland rhetoric — prices climbed on the prospect of heightened geopolitical friction—before sliding about 2% on Thursday as he backed off tariff threats against Europe and ruled out military action there. Trump later said the U.S., Denmark and NATO had reached an arrangement granting “total access” to Greenland.
Supply-side concerns added support. Chevron said output at Kazakhstan’s giant Tengiz oilfield has yet to resume after a fire prompted a shutdown announced Monday by Chevron-led operator Tengizchevroil. Prolonged downtime at one of the world’s largest fields tightens the near-term balance.
Iran remains a key exporter to China — the world’s second-largest oil consumer — keeping Middle East risks front and center for traders weighing geopolitical premiums against recent easing in trade tensions.
—Thursday: Oil slides to one-week low as geopolitical risk premium eases
Trump’s softer tone on Greenland and Iran, Ukraine peace hopes, and rising supply weigh on crude
Oil prices fell about 2% Thursday, hitting a one-week low as markets pared back geopolitical risk premiums and focused on supply-side pressures. Brent settled down $1.18, or 1.8%, at $64.06 a barrel, while WTI dropped $1.26, or 2.1%, to $59.36.
The pullback followed comments from Donald Trump signaling reduced tensions. Trump said the U.S. had secured permanent access to Greenland through a NATO deal and expressed hopes to avoid further military action against Iran, easing fears of supply disruptions. Analysts said the move reflected a “deflation of risk premium” tied to both Greenland and Iranian supply concerns, with prices expected to stabilize near $60 a barrel.
Markets also weighed tentative progress toward ending Russia’s war in Ukraine, which could eventually lead to eased sanctions and higher global supply. Russian crude output fell 0.8% last year to 10.28 million barrels per day—roughly a tenth of global production.
Additional pressure came from elsewhere on the supply front. Venezuelan exports are gradually rising under U.S.-backed arrangements, and proposed reforms could allow greater foreign participation in the country’s oil sector. In the U.S., crude inventories jumped by 3.6 million barrels last week — well above expectations— according to the Energy Information Administration.
Countering some of the bearish tone, Saudi Aramco’s CEO argued demand growth remains strong and inventories tight. Still, easing geopolitical tensions and signs of rising supply capped prices on the day.
| TRADE POLICY |
—Lutnick warns Canada/China pivot could complicate USMCA review
Commerce secretary says Carney’s China outreach and Davos rhetoric risk reopening trade terms ahead of July negotiations
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick warned that Canada’s expanding ties with China — and recent rhetoric from Prime Minister Mark Carney — could jeopardize Canada’s standing in the upcoming July review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
Speaking in a Jan. 22 interview with Bloomberg, Lutnick criticized Carney’s recent trip to China, where Ottawa agreed to lower tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in exchange for reduced duties on Canadian agricultural exports. Lutnick argued that opening Canadian markets to Chinese EVs, combined with Carney’s public messaging, signals a shift that Washington may not overlook when USMCA comes up for review.
Lutnick also took aim at Carney’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where the Canadian leader urged “middle powers” to cooperate against economic coercion by unnamed “great powers.” Carney warned that tariffs, financial systems, and supply chains were increasingly being weaponized — remarks Lutnick dismissed as “political noise.”
According to Lutnick, Canada is taking its preferential access to the U.S. market for granted. He noted that roughly 85% of Canadian goods enter the U.S. duty-free, while non-USMCA Canadian products face a 35% tariff — still what he called the “second-best deal in the world,” behind Mexico. Moving closer to China, he warned, could prompt the U.S. to reconsider that status.
Quote of note: “If the Canadians continue this path,” Lutnick said, questioning whether the U.S. president would be inclined to preserve Canada’s favorable position during renegotiation. He added that Beijing is unlikely to meaningfully open its markets to Canadian exports, calling Ottawa’s strategy “the silliest thing I’ve ever seen.”
President Donald Trump echoed the criticism during his own Davos remarks, saying Canada should be “grateful” for U.S. cooperation and faulting Carney for failing to acknowledge that dependence.
Meanwhile, Trump announced he has withdrawn Canada’s invitation to join his newly formed “Board of Peace,” informing Carney that the country was no longer welcome after Carney delivered remarks at the World Economic Forum warning that “great powers” are using economic and security leverage to coerce allies. Trump unveiled the board in Davos as a potential alternative to existing international institutions and said Canada benefits heavily from U.S. security, including proposed missile defense plans tied to Greenland, arguing Ottawa should be more appreciative. While Carney did not mention Trump by name, he urged “middle powers” to diversify partnerships and defend sovereignty. Trump said he will chair the board, which includes senior U.S. officials and business leaders, and has invited countries such as Russia, China, France, Germany and Ukraine to participate.
Upshot: Together, the comments underscore rising tension ahead of the USMCA review, with U.S. officials signaling that Canada’s foreign policy and trade alignment — particularly with China — could carry real consequences for North American trade terms.
—Commerce extends timeline on Mexico winter strawberry dumping petition
Agency says more time is needed to verify domestic industry support before proceeding
The Commerce Department’s International Trade Administration has extended the deadline for determining whether an antidumping duty petition on fresh winter-grown strawberries from Mexico meets the legal threshold for domestic industry support.
The petition, filed by the group Strawberry Growers for Fair Trade, asks the U.S. government to investigate whether Mexican strawberries are being sold in the U.S. at unfairly low prices. Under U.S. trade law, Commerce must confirm that petition supporters account for at least 25% of total U.S. production of the “like product,” and that supporters and non-opponents together represent more than 50% of domestic production.
Normally, the International Trade Administration must make that determination within 20 days of a petition being filed. However, in a Federal Register notice (link), Commerce said it needs additional time “to gather and analyze additional information regarding industry support.”
As a result, the agency has pushed the industry-support determination deadline to no later than Feb. 9, delaying the next step in the potential antidumping case against Mexican winter strawberry imports.
—China spots opening as U.S. alliances fray
Beijing courts wary American allies with trade and diplomacy, but middle powers look to hedge rather than switch sides
China is moving quickly to exploit strains within the trans-Atlantic alliance, portraying itself as a steadier economic partner as President Donald Trump rattles traditional allies with tariff threats and provocative foreign policy moves. According to the Wall Street Journal, Beijing is using the moment to entice U.S. partners with trade deals and diplomatic outreach — while those same countries remain cautious about trading one superpower’s influence for another’s.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney framed the moment as an opportunity for “middle powers” to pursue a “third path,” combining pragmatism with principle rather than aligning fully with either Washington or Beijing. Carney’s remarks followed his meeting last week in Beijing with Xi Jinping, which produced a diplomatic thaw and a new trade framework.
Analysts cited by the Wall Street Journal describe the strategy as hedging, not realignment. Countries such as Canada and key European states are diversifying trade and reopening dialogue with China while remaining clear-eyed about security risks and enduring ties to the U.S. As Trump has threatened force over Greenland and leaned aggressively on tariffs, Chinese officials have cast Beijing as a champion of open trade and multilateralism.
That message was reinforced in Davos by Vice Premier He Lifeng, who criticized “unilateralism and protectionism” and argued that China represents an economic opportunity, not a threat. Beijing’s push has included easing trade barriers — most notably a new China — Canada framework that cuts tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and Canadian canola oil.
Several U.S. allies are engaging. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected in Beijing later this month, Germany’s Friedrich Merz plans a February visit, and French President Emmanuel Macron traveled to China in December. Still, deep divisions remain. Europe continues to press China over its ties to Russia, and the European Commission this week advanced plans to phase out telecom equipment from “high-risk” suppliers — widely seen as targeting Huawei and ZTE.
Chinese state media, meanwhile, has seized on Trump’s rhetoric — on Greenland and Venezuela in particular — to depict the U.S. as an increasingly “extractive” power. That critique has resonated in parts of the developing world, where China’s economic footprint continues to expand. Trade surpluses hit record levels last year, and engagement under the Belt and Road Initiative reached new highs in 2025, especially in Central Asia, Africa and Latin America.
Even so, experts caution that China’s opening in Europe has limits. Beijing does not expect a lasting rupture between the U.S. and its allies, and Trump’s recent retreat from threats over Greenland — pivoting instead toward enhanced Arctic security — has reduced the risk of a deeper NATO crisis.
Upshot: For now, the Wall Street Journal reports, China may gain tactically from Western unease, but strategically, most U.S. allies are intent on hedging — not defecting.
| CHINA |
—TikTok deal secures U.S. operations and data control
Joint venture with U.S.-aligned investors resolves national security concerns, preserves access for 200 million Americans
A long-running effort to address national security concerns around TikTok has culminated in a finalized deal that secures the platform’s future in the United States. The agreement is a relief for more than 200 million U.S. users who rely on TikTok for entertainment, news, and income.
Under the deal, control of U.S. user data and most U.S. operations will shift to a new joint venture owned 50% by a consortium of investors, including Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX. The structure is designed to ring-fence American data and operations, addressing U.S. government concerns while allowing the platform to continue operating at scale.
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
—Democrats see clearer — though still narrow — path to Senate majority in 2026
Inside Elections says candidate recruitment, affordability politics, and Trump’s standing are reshaping the battlefield
Democrats have made meaningful progress toward a potential Senate takeover in 2026, even as Republicans remain favored to hold the chamber, according to a new analysis from Inside Elections. The latest overview argues that the map is no longer purely defensive for Democrats and that a viable — if difficult — path to a majority has emerged.
Inside Elections editor and publisher Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin writes that Democrats’ opportunity rests on a combination of stronger candidate recruitment and a political environment increasingly focused on affordability, which has driven Democratic overperformance in recent elections. Holding vulnerable Democratic seats in Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire is described as the “necessary first step.” From there, Democrats must flip the open Republican-held seat in North Carolina, defeat Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), and then win two of four difficult targets: Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, or Texas.
“Republicans are still favored to maintain their Senate majority, but Democrats have a much better chance compared to the beginning of the cycle and could pull it off,” Gonzales writes, underscoring how the competitive map has expanded since early 2025.
The analysis draws a direct historical parallel to 2010, when Republicans captured Senate seats in five states that had voted for Barack Obama just two years earlier — evidence, Gonzales/Rubashkin note, that ticket-splitting outcomes in midterms are possible even in seemingly hostile terrain.
At the same time, Democrats face internal challenges. Competitive primaries in Michigan, Minnesota, Maine, and Texas are framed as microcosms of broader debates over party messaging and candidate identity, with uncertainty over whether those contests will strengthen or weaken general-election prospects.
Republicans, for their part, are betting that improving economic conditions will blunt voter appetite for change and that Democratic candidates will be defined as too liberal. But Inside Elections cautions that voter attention is likely to remain focused on President Donald Trump, whose December approval rating (36%, per Gallup) is lower than George W. Bush’s heading into the 2006 midterms — the last time Democrats swept both chambers.
The Bottom Line from Inside Elections: the Senate remains an uphill climb for Democrats, but the landscape is no longer static — and the 2026 fight is shaping up to be broader, costlier, and more volatile than it appeared at the start of the cycle.
—Klobuchar moves toward Minnesota governor bid
Democratic senator files exploratory paperwork after Walz steps aside, setting up a potential open race with national implications
Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) has filed paperwork to explore a run for Minnesota governor, according to reports, just weeks after Gov. Tim Walz (D-Minn.) announced he would not seek another term.
Klobuchar, who gained national prominence during her 2020 presidential campaign, is expected to decide in the coming days. If she enters the race, she would begin as the early favorite in a state now at the center of President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown.
On the Republican side, the primary could be crowded, potentially featuring more than a dozen candidates, including Mike Lindell. Republicans have not held Minnesota’s governorship in 15 years.
Walz — who was Vice President Kamala Harris’s 2024 running mate — said this month he would not run again as Republicans intensified attacks over alleged large-scale welfare fraud in the state. A subsequent surge of federal immigration officers following the investigation has fueled protests and heightened political tensions.
Klobuchar’s fourth Senate term runs through early January 2031; if elected governor, she would appoint her own Senate successor.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Heavy snow over the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley… …Catastrophic Ice Accumulation from the Southern Plains to the Southeast… …Bitterly cold temperatures and dangerously cold wind chills from the Southern Plains to the Northeast.
