Senate Dems Threaten to Block Homeland Security Funding Over Minneapolis ICE Shooting

Deep freeze ripples through U.S. and Canadian agriculture, slowing livestock, rail and markets

LINKS

Link: Trump Threatens 100% Tariff Over Canada/China Partnership
Link: USDA Revises Food Price Outlook, Slowing Grocery Inflation but
          Lifting Restaurant Costs
Link: Countervailing Duty on Moroccan Phosphates Drives Billions in
          Higher U.S. Fertilizer Costs

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 23
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 23
 

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Jan. 24, 2026

UP FRONT

TOP STORIES

— Senate Dems threaten DHS funding block over ICE shooting — Senate Democrats, led by Chuck Schumer, are weighing blocking Homeland Security funding unless ICE reforms are imposed, raising shutdown risks as the deadline nears.

— Trade anxiety spikes as Trump threatens 100% Canada tariffs — Donald Trump warns Canada against deepening China ties, escalating U.S./Canada trade tensions despite USMCA protections covering most Canadian exports.

— Massive winter storm triggers nationwide emergencies — A sprawling storm threatens ice, snow, extreme cold, power outages, and major travel disruptions across much of the U.S., complicating Congress’ funding timeline.

— Oil markets feel early hit from winter freeze — Cold weather curbs North Dakota output and threatens the Permian, tightening regional crude and gas markets despite ample global supply.

— Deep freeze disrupts U.S. and Canadian agriculture — Extreme cold stresses livestock, slows rail and trucking — including cold-weather braking limits — and injects volatility into grain and livestock markets.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities Friday — Stocks end mixed, with modest weekly declines as investors balance weather disruptions, geopolitics, and rate expectations.

— Fed poised to pause after late-2025 cuts — The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady as Chair Jerome Powell signals patience amid mixed inflation and labor data.

— Silver’s parabolic rally flashes warning signs — Strong industrial demand and tight supply support prices, but extreme technicals and speculative flows raise pullback risks.

AG MARKETS

— China books fresh U.S. ag purchases — USDA reports new Chinese buying of sorghum, soybeans, cotton, and pork, lifting total soybean commitments.

— Friday ag futures recap — Corn, soybeans, wheat, and cattle mostly higher on weather-driven logistics concerns, while cotton slips.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Oil climbs to week-high on Iran tensions — Sanctions, Middle East risks, and Kazakhstan outages push crude higher despite earlier pullbacks.

CONGRESS

— Health insurance CEOs deflect cost blame — Executives tell lawmakers hospitals, doctors, and drugmakers — not insurers — are driving higher health-care costs.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— Democrats see early midterm tailwinds — Polling, affordability concerns, and Trump headwinds give Democrats an early edge, though GOP cash and a favorable Senate map remain key factors.

FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY

— FDA sets aggressive 2026 food agenda — The Food and Drug Administration targets ingredient safety reform, ultra-processed foods, nutrition labeling, and expanded state inspections.

— Rahm Emanuel urges Democrats to refocus on costs — Rahm Emanuel calls on Democrats to admit mistakes and center campaigns on groceries, health care, housing, and education.

TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS

— Port of Los Angeles tops 10 million containers again — Near-record 2025 volumes underscore long-term bets on terminal expansion, rail upgrades, and zero-emissions infrastructure.

TOP STORIES—Senate Dems threaten to block Homeland Security funding over Minneapolis ICE shootingSchumer says caucus will consider strategy as government funding deadline looms amid escalating tensions over federal immigration enforcement Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and senior Senate Democrats are preparing to oppose any government spending package that includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) unless significant changes to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) policy are achieved — a stance sharpened by a second fatal federal agent-involved shooting in Minneapolis this month. With federal government funding set to expire this Friday, the U.S. House of Representatives has already advanced six appropriations bills to the Senate, including a bill that would fund DHS — which encompasses ICE, Customs and Border Protection (CBP), and other critical security components. But opposition to that DHS bill has hardened among Senate Democrats following the shooting death of 37-year-old Alex Pretti, a Minneapolis ICU nurse, by federal immigration agents — the latest in a series of controversial use-of-force incidents involving ICE in the city that has drawn nationwide outrage and intensified calls to restrict or defund elements of DHS. Of note: According to recent reporting, Democratic senators who earlier were willing to support efforts to avert a shutdown are now reconsidering their position on DHS funding specifically, citing the agency’s actions and lack of meaningful accountability or reforms as central concerns. Senate Democrats plan to hold a caucus call Sunday morning to coordinate their strategy ahead of votes later this week. The internal discussion will focus on whether to block any spending legislation that includes DHS funding unless ICE receives tighter limits or reforms connected to recent enforcement actions. Separately, House Democrats faced internal divisions of their own: seven Democrats broke with party leadership in the House to vote with Republicans in passing the DHS funding bill, underscoring the political complexity of the debate and the difficulty of uniting opposition to the measure. Upshot: The situation continues to evolve as lawmakers weigh the risks of a partial government shutdown against mounting political pressure to address federal immigration enforcement and agency conduct.—More U.S. trade policy anxiety as Trump threatens 100% tariff over Canada/China partnershipTrump warns Ottawa against becoming a “drop-off port” for Chinese goods as U.S./Canada relations deteriorate sharply President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to impose 100% tariffs on all Canadian goods if Canada moves forward with a trade deal with China, reversing his comments earlier when he said such an agreement would be “a good thing” for Ottawa. Link to special report on the announcement. It’s unclear what would classify as a “deal” to trigger the tariffs against Canada. In a Truth Social post, Trump accused Prime Minister Mark Carney of allowing Canada to serve as a conduit for Chinese exports into the U.S., warning that China would “eat Canada alive” if a deal proceeds. Trump’s comments on Truth Social also come after heated words between the two leaders. “Canada lives because of the United States,” Trump said Wednesday in an address at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements.” Carney responded on Thursday that, “Canada doesn’t live because of the United States. Canada thrives because we are Canadian.” Trump said Canada opposes his planned “Golden Dome” missile-defense project, though it’s unclear if that is Ottawa’s position. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this week that Trump had asked Canada to take part in the project. Trump’s threat comes two days after he pulled Canada’s invitation to join his “Board of Peace” after Carney took aim at Trump’s foreign policy moves. The escalation follows a public clash between Trump and Carney at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where Carney criticized Trump’s tariff threats and broader geopolitical posture, including remarks on Greenland. Trump later claimed Canada benefits unfairly from the U.S. and said it should be “grateful,” comments Carney rejected while still praising bilateral ties. Trump subsequently revoked Carney’s invitation to join a U.S.-led “Board of Peace” tied to Gaza reconstruction and then announced the tariff threat tied directly to Canada–China trade talks. Trump’s threat comes after Carney charted a path forward for Canada, warning that stronger countries have been using “economic integration as weapons,” “tariffs as leverage,” and “supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited.” While he did not name the U.S. in his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Carney characterized it as a global “rupture” and not a transition, adding that “middle powers must act together because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu.” The warning comes despite Trump’s earlier endorsement of Canada pursuing a deal with China, including provisions to lower tariffs on electric vehicles and canola. Canada had planned to admit up to 49,000 Chinese EVs at reduced tariffs, while China signaled it would cut canola seed tariffs by March 1. Trump has already announced and threatened steep tariffs on Canadian goods in recent months — including a 35% tariff unveiled in July and an additional 10% increase announced in October — moves that have heightened uncertainty around the U.S./Canada relationship and raised concerns about a broader diplomatic and economic rupture. Of note: Nearly 98% of Canadian goods exported to the U.S. qualify for tariff-free treatment under USMCA, provided they meet the agreement’s rules of origin. This creates a strong legal presumption against broad U.S. tariffs on Canada, though it does not make Canadian goods immune from all trade actions. Targeted measures — such as national-security tariffs under Section 232 or antidumping and countervailing duties — can still apply, but sweeping, across-the-board tariffs would represent a significant break from USMCA commitments rather than routine trade enforcement. Canada has responded by aggressively looking to increase trade ties east to Europe and west to Asia — including sealing a trade deal with China and seeking new links with India, two countries that openly feuded with Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau, in recent years. Upshot: It is unclear what impact these new 100% tariffs could have, if and when they are imposed. As noted, Canadian goods that are compliant under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) have been exempt from other Trump levies. Trump brokered that agreement under his first term, and it will be under review this year. Trump’s steep sectoral tariffs on autos, steel, aluminum, lumber and energy — some of the country’s key exports to the U.S. — have hit Canada especially hard. During October, Canada’s unemployment rate reached its highest point in nine years. It’s also hurting the U.S. economy because of Canadian boycotts. According to data from Statistics Canada, Canadian travel to the U.S. by land is down 31% this year through the end of September. Exports of American spirits to Canada plunged by 85% in the second quarter, according to the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States. The U.S. imported $421 billion of goods from Canada in 2024, with energy products encompassing $131 billion; vehicles and machinery are also major imports from Canada. Trucks and shipping containers at the Port of Montreal in Montreal, Quebec, on Jan. 22, 2026. Canada is scheduled to release gross domestic product (GDP) figures on Jan. 30. Graham Hughes/Bloomberg/Getty Images —Massive winter storm triggers emergencies across U.S., threatening ice, snow, and extreme coldNearly 230 million Americans face dangerous travel conditions, widespread power outages, and life-threatening cold as a sprawling winter storm stretches from Texas to New England  A powerful winter storm sweeping across more than 2,000 miles of the United States has prompted states of emergency in at least 18 states and Washington, D.C., as officials brace for heavy snow, crippling ice, and extreme cold through the weekend and into early next week. By Saturday morning, more than 68,000 customers were without power — roughly 27,600 in Texas alone — and over 30 states were under National Weather Service watches, warnings, or advisories. More than 10,000 flights (average of 45,000 flights daily in the U.S.) had been canceled as airlines issued travel waivers, while emergency agencies rushed resources into affected regions. Airports in Charlotte, Atlanta, New York, Dallas, Washington, DC, and Atlanta are among the most affected. About 89,000 homes and businesses across the US don’t have power as of noon ET on Saturday, according to PowerOutage.US. More than half are in Texas, which is managed by a different grid operator. The storm began impacting the South late Friday, bringing snow to northern Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, with severe ice forecast across parts of Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Ice accumulations of up to an inch in some areas threaten long-lasting power outages and hazardous, potentially impassable roads. Even regions expecting little snowfall are forecast to endure dangerously low temperatures, with more than 50 million people facing extreme cold in major cities across the Midwest and South. As the system pushes north, the Midwest and Ohio Valley are expected to see widespread snowfall, with some areas receiving 10 inches or more and wind chills plunging into the negatives. The storm then intensifies along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where significant snow followed by sleet and freezing rain could disrupt travel well into Monday. Forecasts call for 8–12 inches of snow in New York City, up to 10 inches in the Washington, D.C., area, and potentially as much as 18 inches in and around Boston. Federal Emergency Management Agency teams have been deployed, with generators, food, and water pre-positioned in multiple states. Governors and local officials are urging residents to avoid travel, prepare for extended power outages, and stay indoors as much as possible while the storm runs its course. Of note: The Senate has already moved its Monday vote to Tuesday, and the timeline looks increasingly tight for Congress to clear government funding bills and avert a partial shutdown at week’s end. —Oil markets feel early hit from U.S. winter stormFreeze-offs curb North Dakota output, raise risks for Permian and refineries A deep winter storm is disrupting U.S. oil and gas production, with North Dakota’s Williston Basin already seeing a roughly 7% drop in crude output as temperatures plunged well below zero. The cold now threatens the Permian Basin — nearly 7 million barrels a day of supply — as sleet and subfreezing weather persist through early next week. While analysts say global supply is sufficient to absorb short-lived outages, regional markets are tightening. North Dakota crude differentials have strengthened, refinery utilization has slipped about 2%, and pipelines moving Permian crude toward Cushing face weather-related risks. Natural gas markets are reacting more sharply, with forecasts calling for sizable production losses and higher prices if the cold lingers. — Deep freeze ripples through U.S. and Canadian agriculture, slowing livestock, rail and marketsFrigid temperatures and winter storms are stressing livestock, snarling rail and truck transportation, and injecting fresh volatility into grain and livestock markets across North America A wave of extreme winter weather stretching from the Southern Plains through the Midwest and into the Northeast — and deep into Canada — is creating a familiar but consequential set of disruptions for agriculture. While snow, ice and bitter cold pose immediate challenges on the farm, the bigger economic effects are showing up in livestock management, rail and truck logistics, and short-term market behavior. Livestock under stress, sales delayed. For livestock producers, prolonged cold brings higher costs and operational risk. Cattle, hogs and dairy animals face increased cold stress, driving up feed requirements and the need for extra bedding, wind protection and reliable water access. In open feedlots and pasture systems, exposure to wind and moisture compounds the strain, raising concerns about weight gain, animal health and, in extreme cases, mortality. Severe travel conditions have also forced the cancellation or postponement of livestock auctions in parts of the Plains and Midwest, temporarily tightening marketable supplies. Those disruptions can create uneven cash trade and add volatility to feeder and live cattle futures as animals back up on farms rather than moving smoothly through the marketing chain. Railroads slow as cold makes braking harder. Transportation impacts are extending well beyond highways. Extreme cold materially affects freight rail operations in both the U.S. and Canada — a critical issue for grain, fertilizer, feed and livestock movements. Freight trains rely on compressed air brake systems that are sensitive to temperature. In very cold conditions, brake hoses and seals stiffen, air pressure can leak more easily, and braking distances can lengthen. To manage that risk, major railways such as Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City impose cold-weather operating protocols when temperatures plunge well below normal. Those measures typically include shorter train lengths, slower speeds and additional inspections — all of which reduce network capacity. The result is slower rail velocity across key corridors, particularly in western Canada and the northern U.S., where unit grain trains are most exposed to sustained sub-zero temperatures. Delays in rail yards and on mainlines can linger even after the cold eases, as backed-up traffic works its way through the system. Trucking and river logistics also pressured. Road transport has been hampered by snow- and ice-covered highways, making livestock hauling riskier and grain movement less reliable. In some regions, producers and shippers have had to delay deliveries or reroute freight, increasing costs. Cold conditions also complicate winter barge traffic on the Mississippi River system, where ice and low visibility can slow grain flows and influence local basis levels. Market effects: logistics trump fundamentals, for now. In commodity markets, weather-driven logistics are temporarily overshadowing longer-term fundamentals. Grain futures have found support as traders factor in transportation slowdowns and the risk of delayed export shipments, even as underlying supply and demand trends remain unchanged. In livestock markets, disruptions to movement and marketing are contributing to choppier trade, particularly in nearby contracts. For basis markets, the effects are highly regional. Areas heavily dependent on rail service are seeing more pronounced impacts, while locations with better access to truck alternatives are somewhat insulated — at least until cold and snow intensify further. A familiar winter pattern with real economic weight. While none of these challenges are unprecedented, their convergence matters. Extreme cold simultaneously stresses animals, constrains labor and equipment, and slows the transportation systems agriculture depends on most. In the short run, that means higher costs, logistical uncertainty and market volatility. Over longer periods, repeated winter disruptions reinforce how weather risk remains a structural factor shaping North American agricultural supply chains. As temperatures moderate, many of these pressures should ease. But until then, producers, shippers and markets alike remain at the mercy of the cold.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

—Equities Friday: 

Equity Index	Closing Price  Jan. 23	Point Difference  from Jan. 22	% Difference  from Jan. 22	Weekly Change
Dow	49,098.71	-285.30	-0.58%	-0.5%
Nasdaq	23,501.24	+65.22	+0.28%	-0.1%
S&P 500	6,915.61	+2.26	+0.03%	-0.4%

—Fed poised to pause as Powell signals ‘wait and see’ after late-2025 rate cuts

Officials expected to hold rates steady while assessing labor, inflation, and the impact of prior easing moves

Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at their Jan. 27-28 meeting after delivering three straight cuts at the end of 2025. Chair Jerome Powell is likely to frame policy as well-positioned for the moment, avoiding strong guidance on the future path of rates as policymakers buy time to evaluate the effects of last year’s reductions.
 

Recent economic data may help bridge internal differences. The U.S. unemployment rate edged lower in December even as inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target — a combination that could placate both hawks and doves and bolster support for a pause in the easing cycle.

Powell’s press conference will be his first since he disclosed Justice Department subpoenas involving the Fed and since a Supreme Court hearing tied to Governor Adriana Kugler Cook’s legal battle to retain her post. Expectations are low that Powell will elaborate on either issue, with attention instead focused on the economic outlook and policy stance.

The week ahead brings fresh data for policymakers to monitor, including Friday’s December producer price index, which economists expect to show a modest pickup in wholesale inflation. Additional releases include November durable goods orders and the trade deficit, along with January consumer confidence — all offering further clues on momentum as the Fed weighs its next move.

—Silver’s parabolic run raises red flags for latecomers

Industrial demand and supply tightness underpin silver’s surge — but extreme technicals and speculative flows suggest the rally may be vulnerable to a sharp pullback 

Silver prices have exploded over the past year, rising more than 200% and jumping another 34% in January alone to roughly $94 an ounce, according to Barron’s. The rally has outpaced nearly every major commodity — and even gold, which is up about 74% over the same period — putting silver squarely in “ballistic” territory.

The metal’s bull case is real, but it doesn’t fully justify the magnitude of the move, according to a Barron’s assessment. Industrial demand now accounts for about 60% of total silver use, up from less than half a decade ago, driven by electronics, electric vehicles, solar panels, and rapidly expanding AI-related data centers, according to Metals Focus. Supply constraints add to the story: roughly three-quarters of silver production comes as a byproduct of mining other metals, limiting how quickly output can respond to higher prices. Silver demand has exceeded supply every year since 2018, with a deficit of about 18% last year.

Still, fundamentals alone don’t explain silver’s parabolic rise — and they may not cushion the downside if sentiment turns. Compared with gold, silver trades in a much smaller and more volatile market, giving it a historical beta of about 1.4 versus gold. That leverage cuts both ways: sharp gains can quickly become sharp losses.

Technical signals are flashing warning signs. At current levels, silver is trading at more than double its 200-day moving average, a condition some analysts describe as “extreme overbought.” The silver-to-gold ratio has also collapsed to roughly 51, its lowest level in more than a decade and well below the long-term average near 65 — suggesting silver may be priced aggressively relative to gold.

Trade policy has further distorted the market. Prices surged as investors shifted physical silver from London to New York to hedge against potential U.S. import tariffs under President Donald Trump’s trade agenda. Even after the administration signaled in January that it does not plan to impose tariffs on silver or other critical minerals, prices continued climbing. Some traders expect silver inventories to gradually flow back to London, easing the kind of supply squeezes that can fuel sudden price spikes.

Investor behavior adds another layer of risk. U.S. investors largely access silver through exchange-traded funds such as the iShares Silver Trust, which has benefited from rising inflows. ETF holdings climbed to about 1.33 billion ounces in 2025 from 1.04 billion ounces in 2024, according to Metals Focus, effectively removing physical silver from circulation and tightening supply. But heavy ETF participation can amplify volatility if flows reverse.

Some strategists are urging caution. U.S. Bank says it has no plans to add silver to client portfolios, citing the metal’s small market size and speculative nature. History offers sobering reminders: after peaking in 2011, silver fell roughly 25% in less than a week and ended that year near $27.

Estimates of “fair value” vary, but using the long-term silver-to-gold ratio implies prices closer to the mid-$70s, well below current levels but still far above where silver traded a year ago. Analysts at WisdomTree Europe suggest patient investors may want to wait for a pullback into the $70–$75 range before buying, noting that the metal’s most recent gains could unwind quickly.

Bottom Line: silver’s fundamentals are strong, but its technicals and speculative momentum look stretched. As Barron’s puts it, silver may look unstoppable — which could be exactly why investors should be careful chasing it here.

AG MARKETS

—More U.S. ag export sales to China. USDA Export Sales data for the week ending Jan. 15 included activity for China of net sales of 464,367 MT of sorghum, 1,303,485 MT of soybeans, and 12,137 running bales of upland cotton. Sales activity for 2026 included net sales of 1,984 MT of pork. The report puts total soybean export commitments to China at 9,420,132 MT.
 

—Agriculture markets yesterday:

Commodity	Contract Month	Close  Jan. 23	Change vs  Jan. 22	Weekly Change
Corn	March	$4.30 1/2	+6 1/2¢	Dec: +5 3/4¢
Soybeans	March	$10.67 3/4	+3 3/4¢	+10¢
Soybean Meal	March	$299.90	+$3.70	+$9.90
Soybean Oil	March	53.99¢	+21 pts	+138 pts
Wheat (SRW)	March	$5.29 1/2	+14¢	+11 1/2¢
Wheat (HRW)	March	$5.40 3/4	+15¢	+13 1/2¢
Wheat (Spring)	March	$5.75	+1 1/4¢	+10¢
Cotton	March	63.81¢	-7 pts	-105 pts
Live Cattle	February	$234.90	+$2.525	+$2.75
Feeder Cattle	March	$360.175	+90¢	Jan: +$3.725
Lean Hogs	February	$88.35	-12 1/2¢	+7 1/2¢

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

—Friday: Oil climbs to week-high as U.S./Iran tensions rekindle supply fears

Geopolitics and outages push crude higher despite midweek pullback

Oil prices finished Friday at their strongest levels in more than a week as Washington ramped up pressure on Iran, reviving concerns about supply disruptions.

Brent crude rose $1.82 (2.8%) to settle at $65.88 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained $1.71 (2.9%) to $61.07. Both benchmarks logged weekly gains exceeding 2.5%.

Markets reacted to new U.S. sanctions targeting vessels and firms moving Iranian oil, alongside reports that U.S. naval assets are heading to the Middle East. Iran — OPEC’s fourth-largest producer at roughly 3.2 million barrels per day — remains a key supplier to China, heightening sensitivity to any disruption.

Supply risks were compounded by ongoing outages in Kazakhstan. Production at the Chevron-led Tengiz oilfield remains offline after a fire earlier in the week, exacerbating export constraints linked to damage at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal. JP Morgan warned Tengiz — nearly half of Kazakhstan’s output — could stay shut through month-end, pushing national production well below normal levels.

Earlier in the week, gains tied to Trump’s rhetoric on Greenland faded after he softened tariff threats toward Europe and ruled out immediate military action, briefly pressuring prices. Friday’s rally underscored renewed geopolitical tension and persistent worries about constrained supply.

CONGRESS

—Health insurance CEOs deflect blame for rising medical costs

Executives tell lawmakers hospitals, physicians, and drugmakers — not insurers — are driving higher health care spending

Health insurance CEOs appearing before Congress this past week argued that soaring health care costs are primarily the result of high prices charged by hospitals, physicians, and pharmaceutical companies, not insurance practices. Testifying before lawmakers, the executives said insurers are largely intermediaries that pass through costs set elsewhere in the system, pointing to hospital consolidation, expensive specialty care, and rising prescription drug prices as the main drivers of premium increases and patient out-of-pocket expenses. Lawmakers from both parties pressed the witnesses on insurer profits, prior authorization, and coverage denials, signaling that scrutiny of industry practices is likely to continue.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

—Democrats see early midterm tailwinds as Trump faces economic and political headwinds

Polling shifts, voter frustration over costs, and renewed Democratic enthusiasm give the party an early edge heading into the 2026 elections — though improving sentiment and GOP cash advantages could still complicate the map

House Democrats are entering the 2026 midterm cycle with momentum, buoyed by favorable polling, voter dissatisfaction with Donald Trump’s second term, and the historical tendency for the president’s party to lose ground in midterm elections. Analysts say Republican headwinds are being driven by Trump’s approval ratings, persistent frustration over affordability, and a measurable enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats.

Those dynamics have begun to show up in race ratings. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report recently shifted 18 House contests toward Democrats, putting 189 seats in the solid Democratic column versus 186 for Republicans — with 218 needed for control. A New York Times–Siena poll this week also found broad voter disapproval of Trump’s handling of key issues, particularly the economy, though the president dismissed the results as fraudulent.

Democrats are betting the environment can be sustained by centering their message on costs. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) has argued the Trump administration has failed on the economy, while Democratic campaign leaders plan to spotlight Republican opposition to extending Affordable Care Act subsidies and upcoming Medicaid cuts. They are also targeting Trump’s tariff regime, arguing consumers — not foreign countries — are paying the price.

Republicans, however, see potential counterweights. Trump is now pitching an affordability agenda of his own, alongside expectations that taxpayers will see larger refunds from last year’s tax-and-spending package. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) argues those benefits will become tangible by early 2026, particularly in swing districts. Still, outside analysts note that more than half of taxpayers are unlikely to see dramatic changes.

Economic signals are mixed. Consumer sentiment rose to a five-month high in January, inflation is well below its 2022 peak, and Bloomberg Economics projects growth above 2% by late 2026 if trade uncertainty eases and AI investment accelerates. But grocery prices, insurance costs, and slower hiring continue to weigh on voters’ perceptions — a factor strategists say matters more than headline data.

Structurally, Republicans are favored to hold the Senate due to a friendly map and enjoy a significant financial edge, with Trump-aligned super PAC MAGA Inc. sitting on nearly $300 million. Yet recent special elections suggest even heavy spending may not guarantee large margins in swing or traditionally safe districts.

Bottom Line: Democrats have an early advantage driven by political and economic discontent with Trump, but the outcome will hinge on whether improving sentiment and Republican resources can blunt that edge before November.

FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY

—FDA sets 2026 food agenda with ingredient safety overhaul and ultra-processed foods in focus

Agency priorities emphasize stricter ingredient reviews, expanded state inspections, new nutrition labels, and closer scrutiny of contaminants

The Food and Drug Administration is sharpening its focus on food regulation in 2026, outlining an ambitious set of priorities that signal a more aggressive posture on ingredient safety, nutrition transparency, and enforcement. In a newly released list of priority deliverables (link), the agency said it plans to overhaul how food ingredients are deemed safe, expand reliance on state agencies for food inspections, and identify and reduce risks linked to high consumption of ultra-processed foods.

A centerpiece of the agenda is reforming the ingredient safety process, an area that has drawn sustained criticism from lawmakers and consumer advocates who argue the current framework allows substances into the food supply with limited independent review. The FDA indicated it wants a more rigorous and transparent approach to evaluating ingredients, including those already on the market, as part of a broader effort to modernize food oversight.

The agency also highlighted a renewed push on front-of-package nutrition labeling, signaling momentum toward standardized labels designed to give consumers quicker, clearer information at the point of purchase. That effort dovetails with the FDA’s growing concern over diet-related chronic disease and the outsized role ultra-processed foods play in U.S. consumption patterns.

In parallel, the FDA said it will deepen its work on heavy metals and other contaminants in food, continuing studies and potential risk-reduction strategies tied to products ranging from baby food to staple commodities. Enforcement capacity is also set to shift, with the agency aiming to expand the role of state partners in food inspections, a move intended to stretch limited federal resources while maintaining oversight across an increasingly complex food system.

Alongside the priorities, HFP released a proposed 2026 guidance agenda (link), highlighting actions such as setting action levels for cadmium and inorganic arsenic in infant and young children’s foods; issuing guidance on chemical hazard preventive controls and sanitation controls under the Preventive Controls for Human Food rule; and clarifying nutrition labeling requirements for online grocery platforms. FDA said it will provide periodic updates throughout the year as it works toward science-based goals aimed at preventing foodborne illness, reducing chronic disease, and improving chemical safety in the food supply.

Upshot: Taken together, the 2026 priorities point to a year of heightened regulatory activity for food manufacturers and processors — particularly those reliant on novel ingredients or heavily processed products — as the FDA moves to tighten safety reviews, boost transparency, and respond to mounting public health and political pressure around the U.S. food supply.

—Rahm Emanuel urges Democrats to own mistakes, refocus on affordability ahead of midterms

Former Chicago mayor says winning independents requires a clear economic agenda centered on groceries, health care, housing, and education — not process politics

Former Chicago Mayor and ex–U.S. ambassador Rahm Emanuel is pressing fellow Democrats to confront their shortcomings and reclaim economic ground as the 2026 midterms approach, arguing that restoring access to the “American dream” is the surest path to stabilizing democracy and winning elections.

Speaking at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast in Washington, Emanuel said Democrats should move beyond 2024’s heavy emphasis on democratic norms and instead zero in on voters’ day-to-day pressures — rising grocery bills, health care costs, and housing affordability. “The moment the American dream becomes unaffordable and inaccessible,” he said, “is the same moment American democracy becomes unstable.”

Emanuel framed independents as the decisive bloc. While many have turned against Donald Trump, Emanuel warned they have not automatically embraced Democrats. He identified three prevailing voter emotions: anger among Democrats, betrayal among Republicans (including figures such as former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga.), and unease among independents. Democrats, he said, must “show a path for change” and admit what they got wrong when they were in power.

The midterms, Emanuel predicted, will function as a referendum on the party controlling Washington. His tactical advice: talk about what affects families where Trump isn’t — “He can talk about Greenland; we’ll talk about groceries” — and meet voters where they live, from Virginia households to small communities across the Midwest and South.

Drawing on a résumé that includes senior roles under Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden, Emanuel outlined reforms he says would “clean up” Washington: tougher anti-corruption rules on gifts and stock trading, limits on family profiteering, and mandatory retirement at 75 across all branches. At 66, he said he would not exempt himself — accepting a one-term presidency if elected.

On foreign policy, Emanuel argued U.S. influence is slipping under Trump’s leadership, cautioning that pressuring allies risks pushing them toward China. While he touted the 2023 Camp David trilateral with Japan and South Korea as a strategic win, he warned that recent bilateral moves excluding the U.S. signal erosion of American standing. Still, he said domestic weaknesses worry him more than Beijing: “What we are not doing at home scares me.”

His prescription circles back to education — boosting reading and math skills as the foundation of competitiveness and mobility. “Education is core to the Democratic Party,” Emanuel said, lamenting that the party has “lost its edge.” Despite the critique, he truck an optimistic note about Democratic prospects: “I’d rather have our hand than their hand.”

TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS

—Port of Los Angeles clears 10 million containers again as expansion push accelerates

Near-record 2025 volumes underscore long-term bet on new terminals, rail upgrades, and zero-emissions infrastructure

The Port of Los Angeles handled 10.2 million TEUs in 2025, marking the third time in its 118-year history it has surpassed the 10-million-container threshold, even as tariffs and policy shifts weighed on trade flows. The total ranked as the port’s third-busiest year, trailing only 2024’s 10.3 million TEUs, and reinforced its standing — alongside the Port of Long Beach — as the nation’s top import gateway in the San Pedro Bay complex.

At the annual State of the Port address, Executive Director Gene Seroka credited the workforce and emphasized cargo’s role across the U.S. economy, from farmers and manufacturers to retailers and consumers. December volumes reflected softer conditions: loaded imports fell 7.9% year over year to 424,498 TEUs, loaded exports dipped 2.2% to 108,074 TEUs, and empty containers dropped more than 26% amid weaker China-linked trade.

Looking ahead, Seroka outlined a “Build Bigger and Build Smarter” capital program anchored by the proposed Pier 500 Marine Container Terminal — the first new container terminal at the port in a generation — designed to be fully modern and among the world’s cleanest. Additional projects include a Maritime Support Facility for chassis parking, expansion at Fenix Marine Services’ Pier 300 terminal, and wharf and rail upgrades at the LA TiL Container Terminal operated by Terminal Investment Ltd., a unit of Mediterranean Shipping Co.

The port is also expanding its Port Optimizer and truck appointment systems, backed by an $8 million California GO-Biz grant to extend the platform to Long Beach and improve data-sharing among the state’s major container ports. On sustainability, Los Angeles reported the lowest emissions per TEU of any port globally and is pairing a $412 million Clean Ports grant from the Environmental Protection Agency with $230 million in non-federal funds to accelerate zero-emissions equipment and infrastructure.

Of note: State of the Port proceeds have generated more than $350,000 for local nonprofits; cruise traffic hit a record 1.6 million passengers in 2025; a new cruise center is planned; the port will host sailing events during the 2028 Olympics; and Seroka recognized first responders for their role in the November fire aboard the ONE Henry Hudson.