FOMC Preview: What Traders Are Watching

Trump punts year-round E15 to Congress | Canada’s Carney talks with Trump | USTR Greer says India bested EU in trade deal

LINKS

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 23
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 23
 

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Jan. 28, 2026

UP FRONT

TOP STORIES

— FOMC PREVIEW: Markets expect no rate move, but even subtle changes in Fed language could shift expectations for the timing of the first rate cut and move stocks, bonds, and currencies.

— TRUMP BACKS YEAR-ROUND E15: President Donald Trump used an Iowa rally to pledge swift action on E15 legislation, tying ethanol, trade, and farm policy to an early midterm push.

— TRUMP, DEERE EXPANSION VS. IOWA LAYOFFS: Trump praised John Deere’s new U.S. investments, while critics highlighted thousands of Midwest manufacturing layoffs, sharpening political backlash.

— PATH FOR YEAR-ROUND E15: Lawmakers are likely to attach E15 to a supplemental spending bill with farm aid, with timing uncertain and concessions to small refiners expected.

— CARNEY ON USMCA REVIEW: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed USMCA review talks are moving forward despite trade tensions and sharp rhetoric over tariffs.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— EQUITIES TODAY: The dollar steadied after a sharp selloff, stocks hovered near records on earnings, and markets awaited the Fed amid political pressure on its leadership.

— EQUITIES YESTERDAY: U.S. stocks were mixed, with gains in tech offsetting losses in the Dow.

— CME HIKES SILVER MARGINS: CME raised margin requirements on silver, platinum, and palladium futures following record prices and heightened volatility.

— ADM SETTLES SEC CASE: ADM agreed to pay $40 million to resolve SEC accounting charges tied to its Nutrition unit, as the DOJ closed its criminal probe.

— AMAZON LAYOFFS: Amazon announced 16,000 additional corporate job cuts while continuing heavy investment in artificial intelligence.

— WHO’S BUYING THE GOLD? Financial Times analysis suggests ETFs, private investors, and corporates — not central banks — may be driving gold’s latest surge.

AG MARKETS

— GRAINS SUPPORTED BY WEATHER AND LOGISTICS: Cold weather, transport disruptions, strong CIF bids, Brazilian harvest risks, and firm crush demand are propping up corn and soybeans.

— AG MARKETS RECAP: Mixed futures performance across grains, oilseeds, cotton, and livestock.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— OIL NEAR FOUR-MONTH HIGHS (WEDNESDAY): Winter storms, Kazakh outages, a weak dollar, and geopolitical risks supported crude prices.

— OIL JUMPS 3% (TUESDAY): U.S. weather-driven production losses, export halts, and global supply risks pushed prices sharply higher.

— SHELL, BP SEEK VENEZUELA-LINKED GAS LICENSES: Energy majors are pursuing U.S. approval to advance cross-border gas projects involving Trinidad and Venezuela.

TRADE POLICY

— GREER ON EU/INDIA DEAL: USTR Jamieson Greer argued India gained the upper hand in its trade pact with the EU, raising concerns about U.S. competitiveness.

CONGRESS

— SENATE DHS FUNDING CRUNCH: Immigration disputes threaten progress on a six-bill spending package as a shutdown deadline looms.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— KLOBUCHAR DELAYS GOVERNOR LAUNCH: Sen. Amy Klobuchar paused her Minnesota campaign rollout following a fatal immigration-related shooting.

TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS

— RAIL MEGAMERGER SCRUTINY: Regulators flagged consolidation risks in Union Pacific’s proposed merger with Norfolk Southern, slowing the deal.

WEATHER

— NWS OUTLOOK: Lake-effect snow targets the Great Lakes, rain moves into the Northwest, and snow spreads across the Northern and Central Plains.

TOP STORIES—FOMC preview: why today’s Fed statement still matters for marketsWith no rate cut expected and no new dot plot, investors are focused on subtle language shifts that could determine whether the next move comes in June or slips to July With the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting set to conclude today, markets are bracing for what the Sevens Report characterizes as an outwardly “anticlimactic” decision — but one that still carries meaningful market risk beneath the surface. While chaotic policy headlines and political drama surrounding Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have pushed monetary policy temporarily into the background, The Sevens Report stresses that Fed policy remains a critical pillar supporting the ongoing bull market. According to the Sevens Report, there is effectively no chance of a rate cut at this meeting, and there will be no update to the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections or dot plot. Instead, the market’s reaction will hinge almost entirely on how the Fed signals the timing of the next rate cut — specifically, whether language in the post-meeting statement nudges expectations toward June, or pushes them closer to July. What markets are watching most closely. The Sevens Report identifies two specific areas of the FOMC statement that will drive the market reaction: inflation language at the end of the first paragraph, and the “balance of risks” assessment in the second paragraph. In December, the Fed described inflation as “somewhat elevated” and highlighted “downside risks to employment.” Any changes to those phrases will be read as directional signals on future policy. With Fed funds futures currently pricing the next rate cut around June — but with limited conviction — even subtle wording adjustments could have an outsized impact. The base case expectation outlined by the Sevens Report is no change to rates and no material change to the statement, an outcome that would likely result in muted market reactions across equities, bonds, and currencies. The hawkish and dovish scenarios:  • A hawkish surprise would come if the Fed strengthens its inflation language — for example, dropping “somewhat” — or removes references to downside employment risks. That outcome would imply a longer policy hold, potentially pushing rate-cut expectations deeper into 2025. The Sevens Report warns this could trigger a moderate equity selloff, with cyclical sectors leading declines, a sharp rally in the U.S. dollar, renewed pressure on gold and silver, and a move in the 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.30%. • Conversely, a dovish surprise would involve downgrading inflation language while keeping downside labor-market risks intact. That combination would make a sooner-than-June rate cut more plausible. In that scenario, The Sevens Report expects a modest equity rally led by cyclical sectors, further dollar weakness — potentially pushing the Dollar Index below 96 — and renewed upside momentum in precious metals, which have already been beneficiaries of falling yields and currency softness. Bottom Line: Even without a rate cut or dot-plot update, The Sevens Report emphasizes that this FOMC meeting still has the potential to move markets meaningfully if the Fed delivers a hawkish or dovish surprise. While policy chaos has temporarily overshadowed monetary policy, a shift in Fed communication could quickly return it to the forefront — particularly in a market environment trading near record highs and heavily dependent on expectations for eventual easing. In short, today’s decision may look quiet on the surface — but the wording between the lines matters more than ever.—Trump pledges to sign year-round E15 bill as Iowa stop kicks off midterm pushPresident says legislation is “very close,” touts trade gains for farmers and urges GOP support in November President Donald Trump used a campaign-style appearance in Clive, Iowa, to reiterate his support for year-round sales of E15 ethanol, pledging to sign legislation that he said is nearing completion and pressing voters to remember Republicans when they head to the polls in the midterm elections. Trump spoke to a roomful of at least 700 people at the Horizon Events Center in Clive after making a private stop at the Machine Shed Restaurant in Urbandale. Speaking to a friendly crowd in the nation’s top corn-producing state, Trump said he had promised during the campaign to back year-round E15 and emphasized that congressional leaders were closing in on a deal. He said he was relying on House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) to finalize legislation that works “for farmers, consumers and refiners, including small and midsize refiners.” Trump added that lawmakers were “very close to getting it done,” and declared that the bill would reach his desk “very shortly,” promising, “I will sign it without delay.” Of note: Thune posted on X after the speech that he had spoken with Trump about ethanol Tuesday morning and is “committed” to getting a year-round E15 proposal to the president. The crowd cheered at Trump’s remarks. “Should I do it, Kaufmann?” he said, referring to Republican Party of Iowa Chair Jeff Kaufmann. “Should I do it? I did, I promised E15 all year round if I get elected.” Trump wrapped up his ethanol remarks with a political reminder, telling the crowd, “I hope you remember us for the midterms,” before pivoting to broader economic themes. While E15 was not the dominant focus of the speech, Trump repeatedly tied his policy agenda to agriculture. He highlighted his actions on the Waters of the United States (WOTUS) rule, saying he repealed what he called “ridiculous water restrictions” to keep federal regulators “off your land and out of your business.” On trade, Trump argued that farmers would soon feel the benefits of deals struck under his administration, citing ethanol exports to Japan and the United Kingdom, expanded market access for U.S. beef in Australia, large soybean purchases by China, and increased European imports of U.S. pork, dairy, and soybean oil. Trump also touched on food inflation, pointing to steps his administration took earlier in his term to address egg prices amid outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza, and said beef prices were beginning to ease. Why was USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins not in Iowa during the event? No clear explanation has been given, so we await Rollins own remarks on that matter. But sources indicate Trump knew the E15 issues well because Rollins had adequately briefed him. Upshot: The White House had signaled that Trump’s Iowa stop would serve as the opening move in a nationwide midterm push, and the event largely followed that script. Trump checked key boxes for an agriculture-heavy audience.  — Trump Hails John Deere Expansion as Iowa Layoffs Fuel BacklashPresident touts new U.S. facilities and tariffs at rally, while critics point to thousands of Midwest job cuts President Donald Trump praised John Deere during Tuesday’s rally, applauding the company’s plans to build two new U.S.-based facilities — an excavator factory in North Carolina and a distribution center in Indiana — and crediting tariffs for spurring the investment. Trump highlighted the presence of John May, the company’s chairman and CEO, recounting a lighthearted exchange in which he signed a John Deere hat for May. Trump framed the expansions as evidence that his trade policies are driving domestic manufacturing growth, calling Deere “a great company” that is “expanding all over the place.” The praise comes amid mounting criticism in Iowa, where manufacturing employment has continued to slide. The state lost 5,400 manufacturing jobs between July 2024 and July 2025 and is down nearly 11,000 jobs since June 2023. John Deere alone has laid off more than 2,000 workers in Iowa and the Illinois side of the Quad Cities since April 2024. In response, the Iowa Democratic Party issued a statement noting the scale of Deere’s Midwest layoffs and arguing that Iowans are not benefiting from the company’s expansion elsewhere, sharpening the contrast between Trump’s celebratory rhetoric and the economic reality facing parts of the state.  —If year-round E15 comes from Congress, here is the likely path: • Legislative vehicle: Via a coming supplemental spending bill that will likely include more farmer aid and ag disaster aid, and other election-year items. Perhaps the corn and biofuel industry lobbyists will listen to GOP leaders this time because they did not when they were told to avoid attaching year-round E15 to a must-pass minibus spending bill. The vehicle will not likely end up in a separate bill, but attached to legislative with wide acceptance such as aid. •Timing: While President Trump used the word “soon,” when anyone from Washington says that, it usually is not anywhere near soon. A supplemental spending bill is possible from February into April. •Legislative language: Corn and biofuel interests will have to provide some small refiners want they want: some reform for them relative to RINs and other side issues. —Carney: USMCA review talks moving forward despite trade tensionsCanadian prime minister confirms discussions with Trump and signals negotiations will begin soon, rejecting claims he softened Davos remarks Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Tuesday that Canada is continuing trade talks with the United States — including preparations for the July review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) — despite his warning that recent tariff actions have caused a “rupture” in the global trade order. Carney said he held a nearly 30-minute call with Donald Trump that included discussion of the USMCA review, adding that all three countries intend to proceed and that formal negotiations should begin within weeks. He pushed back against claims by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that he walked back critical remarks made at the World Economic Forum in Davos, saying he stood by those comments and made that clear to Trump. Carney emphasized that Canada is engaging constructively with the U.S. while also diversifying trade ties globally, noting upcoming talks between Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer as part of the USMCA review process.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

—Equities today: The U.S. dollar steadied Wednesday after a sharp selloff to four-year lows, though sentiment remained fragile after Donald Trump dismissed concerns about the currency’s weakness. Traders took his comments as a sign the administration is not inclined to defend the dollar, keeping pressure on FX markets. When asked yesterday by a reporter about the dollar’s tumble — it is down more than 10% against other currencies since he returned to office, while gold has hit a record — he responded: “Look at the business we’re doing. The dollar’s doing great.” But Robert Kaplan, a vice chairman at Goldman Sachs and a former Dallas Fed president, warned that a battered buck could sink demand for U.S. Treasury notes and bonds.

Global stocks hovered near record highs, supported by strong earnings, even as European shares slipped.

Attention turned to the Federal Reserve, expected to hold rates steady today amid political pressure surrounding Chair Jerome Powell and efforts to remove Governor Lisa Cook.

The dollar’s earlier slide briefly pushed the euro above $1.20, lifted the Australian dollar to a three-year high, and drove gold to a record above $5,380 an ounce while Brent crude rose above $68 a barrel. Strong results from ASML buoyed sentiment ahead of earnings from Meta and Tesla.

In Asia, Japan +0.1%. Hong Kong +2.6%. China +0.3%. India +0.6%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.4%. Paris -0.9%. Frankfurt -0.1%.

—Equities yesterday: 

Equity Index	Closing Price  Jan. 27	Point Difference  from Jan. 26	% Difference  from Jan. 26
Dow	49,003.41	-408.99	-0.83%
Nasdaq	23,817.10	+215.74	+0.91%
S&P 500	6,978.60	+28.37	+0.41%

—CME raises margins after silver hits record high

Exchange cites volatility review as collateral requirements climb across precious metals

CME Group said it will raise margin requirements on Comex silver futures after prices surged to a record high this week, a move aimed at managing elevated market volatility.

Under the change, margins for traders with a non-heightened risk profile will increase to 11% of notional value from 9%, while margins for those deemed higher risk will rise to 12.1% from 9.9%, according to a statement from CME Group.

The exchange also said margins on platinum and palladium futures will be increased. The new requirements take effect after Wednesday’s close and follow what CME described as a routine review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage.

—ADM settles SEC case for $40 million

Nutrition unit accounting probe ends; DOJ drops criminal case

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) Company agreed to pay a $40 million civil penalty to settle U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission charges that it inflated results in its Nutrition business. The settlement was reached without admitting or denying wrongdoing, and ADM said the Justice Department has closed its criminal probe without charges.

The SEC separately sued former CFO Vikram Luthar and filed settled charges against two other former executives, who agreed to pay fines. The investigation focused on intersegment transactions that allegedly boosted Nutrition’s performance; ADM later cut $228 million from Nutrition operating profit for 2018–2023. ADM said it has strengthened internal controls and compliance.

—Amazon unveiled another wave of job cuts, saying it will lay off about 16,000 corporate employees following an October round that eliminated roughly 14,000 positions. The latest reductions surfaced a day earlier than planned after an internal email mistakenly informed workers in the company’s cloud computing division of the cuts. The tech and e-commerce giant, which reports quarterly earnings next week, is simultaneously ramping up spending on artificial intelligence even as it pares back its corporate workforce.

—Who’s been buying all the gold?

Because it doesn’t look like it’s the central banks

A widely held narrative is that global central banks are the engine behind gold’s recent record-breaking rally, shifting reserves away from fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar into bullion as geopolitical risk and monetary uncertainty rise. That view — voiced publicly by figures such as Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio — portrays official buyers hoarding gold to hedge against currency debasement and financial instability.

However, a closer look at Financial Times analysis suggests the story isn’t so straightforward. While central banks have indeed boosted gold holdings since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — with annual purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes in recent years — more timely indicators such as UK export data hint that that buying has slowed sharply, even as prices continue to surge. Recent UK non-monetary gold exports by weight fell more than 80 per cent year-on-year in late 2025, calling into question whether official accumulation is the dominant force behind bullion’s strength in the spot market.

Analysts observe that official reserve data are reported only with long lags, making it hard to pin real-time purchases on central banks. As a result, other sources of demand are gaining prominence. Retail and institutional flows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been robust, reflecting investors seeking a hedge against macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. Additionally, non-sovereign buyers have emerged — from wealthy individuals and funds to corporate entities such as stablecoin issuer Tether, whose recent gold acquisitions and holdings now rival those of smaller nations, tightening available supply and influencing market dynamics.

In short, while central banks remain an important structural buyer over the long run, the Financial Times argues that they may not be the main marginal drivers of gold’s current price rally — with speculative flows, ETF demand, and large private holders playing a larger role than commonly assumed.

AG MARKETS

—Winter weather, logistics snags, and global supply risks lend support to soybean and corn markets

River disruptions, firm CIF bids, and Brazilian harvest issues combine to keep downside pressure limited — especially for soybeans.

Bitter cold across the U.S. is increasingly disrupting transportation networks, creating river navigation issues and complicating the movement and location of grain. Those logistical constraints are tightening nearby supply signals, particularly in interior markets, and have helped push CIF bids for both corn and soybeans higher in recent sessions.

That strength in CIF markets is being reinforced by a weaker U.S. dollar, which has improved export competitiveness and added underlying support to futures. Together, firmer basis levels and currency tailwinds are making it more difficult for the grain markets — especially soybeans — to sustain a meaningful break.

Compounding the support is mounting concern around Brazil’s soybean harvest. Persistent wet weather in key producing regions is slowing harvest progress and raising the risk of quality deterioration. Reports of “wet beans” are beginning to circulate in the trade, a development that bears watching closely. If adverse conditions persist, quality discounts or logistical delays in Brazil could divert some export demand back toward the U.S. Gulf and Pacific Northwest.

On the domestic front, soybean processors remain active buyers. Crush margins continue to incentivize plants to push for ownership, tightening nearby supplies and underpinning the market even as futures attempt to correct lower. Strong crush demand is effectively absorbing available stocks and reinforcing the resilience of the nearby soybean complex.

Taken together — winter-driven transport disruptions, firmer CIF values, supportive currency dynamics, Brazilian harvest risks, and aggressive domestic crush demand — the current mix is proving stubbornly supportive. Until one or more of those factors eases, the soybean market in particular may struggle to sustain downside momentum.

—Agriculture markets yesterday:

Commodity	Contract  Month	Closing Price  Jan. 27	Change vs  Jan. 26
Corn	March	$4.26 1/2	-1 3/4 cents
Soybeans	March	$10.67 1/4	+5 1/2 cents
Soybean Meal	March	$294.00	-30 cents
Soybean Oil	March	54.41 cents	+52 points
Wheat (SRW)	March	$5.23 1/4	+3/4 cent
Wheat (HRW)	March	$5.32 3/4	+3 cents
Spring Wheat	March	$5.71 3/4	+2 cents
Cotton	March	63.83 cents	+86 points
Live Cattle	April	$237.40	-60 cents
Feeder Cattle	March	$362.00	-60 cents
Lean Hogs	April	$96.825	+10 cents

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

—Wednesday: Oil prices near four-month high on weather, supply disruptions and geopolitical risks

Winter storm curbs U.S. output; Kazakh outages and weak dollar lend support

Oil prices reached their highest levels since late September midweek, underpinned by a severe winter storm that disrupted U.S. crude oil production and exports, ongoing outages in Kazakhstan’s key oil sector, and a weak U.S. dollar that makes dollar-priced commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Brent crude was down modestly after earlier gains but still hovering near four-month highs, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also pulled back slightly from Tuesday’s roughly 3 % climb. Both benchmarks had climbed sharply on the previous session as markets weighed tightening supply conditions.

A blast of arctic weather across the United States forced temporary shutdowns of crude and liquefied natural gas exports from Gulf Coast ports, with exports dropping to zero on Sunday before rebounding on Monday, according to ship-tracking data. The cold snap also knocked out significant domestic crude output, tightening near-term supply expectations.

On the international front, Kazakhstan’s largest oilfield at Tengiz continues a slow restart after a power outage and fire disrupted production; although the Caspian Pipeline Consortium has restored full loading capacity at its Black Sea terminal, output remains below normal levels.

Market sentiment is further supported by expectations that the OPEC+ group — comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and allies — will maintain its current pause on increasing output at its February 1 meeting.

Additional factors clouding the outlook include potential U.S. policy changes on Venezuelan energy sanctions that could expand crude supply and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, where the arrival of U.S. naval assets has raised concerns about possible disruptions from one of OPEC’s largest producers.

On the demand side, a Reuters poll showed that U.S. crude and gasoline inventories were expected to rise, while distillate stocks might fall, adding another layer of uncertainty to near-term price direction.

—Tuesday: Winter storm, export halt, and geopolitics lift oil prices

Severe U.S. cold snaps slash production and briefly shut Gulf Coast exports, while Kazakhstan outages and Middle East tensions reinforce near-term supply risks

Oil prices jumped roughly 3% on Tuesday as an intense winter storm disrupted U.S. crude output and briefly drove Gulf Coast crude and LNG exports to zero, tightening near-term supply expectations.

Brent crude settled up $1.98, 3.0%, at $67.57 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained $1.76, or 2.9%, to $62.39.

Freezing temperatures knocked out as much as 2 million barrels per day — about 15% of U.S. production — over the weekend, straining energy infrastructure and power grids. Traders pushed futures higher as the scale of outages raised the prospect of inventory drawdowns if cold conditions persist, with analysts saying short-term risks remain skewed to the upside.

Supply concerns were amplified when crude and LNG exports from U.S. Gulf Coast ports fell to zero on Sunday, according to ship-tracking data. Although ports reopened and flows rebounded above seasonal norms by Monday, the temporary halt underscored how weather shocks can quickly tighten prompt supplies.

Global balances also remain under pressure from Kazakhstan, where recovery at the giant Tengiz oilfield has been slower than expected following a fire and power outage. Sources said output may return at less than half of normal levels by February 7, even as the CPC pipeline has resumed full loading capacity.

Geopolitics added another layer of support. The arrival of U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups in the Middle East, elevated tensions with Iran, President Donald Trump’s remarks about an “armada” heading toward Iran, and continued stalemate over a Russia-Ukraine peace deal have helped keep a floor under prices.

Looking ahead, the market expects OPEC+ to maintain its pause on output increases for March at its Feb. 1 meeting, reinforcing expectations that producers will stay cautious amid ongoing supply disruptions and geopolitical uncertainty.

—Shell, BP seek U.S. licenses for Venezuela-linked gas projects

Energy majors look to advance cross-border gas developments with Trinidad and Tobago amid shifting U.S. policy toward Venezuela.

Shell and BP are seeking licenses from the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control to develop natural gas fields spanning Trinidad and Tobago and Venezuela, according to Trinidad’s energy minister Roodal Moonilal. Shell is pursuing approval for the Loran-Manatee field, estimated at about 10 trillion cubic feet of gas, while BP is seeking a license for the Cocuina/Manakin field with roughly 1 tcf of proven reserves.

The requests follow Treasury’s October authorization allowing Shell and Trinidad and Tobago to develop the Dragon gas field offshore Venezuela, with production targeted for late 2027 — a sign that evolving U.S. policy toward Venezuela is beginning to reshape regional energy development.

TRADE POLICY

—USTR Greer: India emerges as winner in EU trade deal

U.S. trade chief argues pact favors India with greater access and migration perks, while raising concerns about America’s competitive position

U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer said India appears to have secured the upper hand in its newly announced trade agreement with the European Union, arguing the pact underscores a broader divergence between EU and U.S. trade strategies.

Speaking to Fox Business, Greer said India is gaining expanded market access into Europe and may also benefit from additional immigration-related provisions. “Frankly, they get more market access into Europe,” Greer said, adding that “on net, India is going to have a heyday with this.”

Greer contrasted the EU’s approach with current U.S. policy, saying Brussels continues to push globalization at a moment when Washington is focused on addressing what he described as its downsides at home.

Others, however, have framed the EU/India agreement as a warning sign for the United States, arguing that lower tariffs between Europe and India could put U.S. exporters at a disadvantage as global trade flows adjust.

Greer also noted that a potential U.S./India trade deal still has “a ways to go,” citing ongoing frictions, including India’s reliance on Russian crude oil. The U.S. has pressed India to reduce those purchases, arguing they indirectly support Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Whether India ultimately proves to be the biggest beneficiary of the EU deal, Greer said, will only become clear during the implementation phase. The agreement is now moving into ratification, a stage that has seen material changes in other trade pacts before taking full effect.

CONGRESS

—Senate immigration standoff heads for crunch vote

DHS funding dispute clouds path for six-bill spending package ahead of shutdown deadline

Senators reported limited but positive behind-the-scenes talks Tuesday as they searched for a way out of a stalemate over Homeland Security funding that could trigger a partial government shutdown when stopgap funding expires Friday night.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) filed cloture on a $1.3 trillion, six-bill appropriations package, setting up a procedural vote Thursday unless a bipartisan deal emerges sooner. Democrats remain unified against the Homeland Security portion of the bill following two fatal shootings in Minneapolis during a Trump administration immigration crackdown, leaving the measure short of the 60 votes needed to advance.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Ct.) and the top Democrat on the Homeland Security Appropriations Subcommittee, said any agreement must include legislated restrictions on DHS operations — not administrative assurances. His demands include warrant requirements for arrests, body cameras for agents, an independent investigation into the shootings, and limits on enforcement actions in cities and sensitive locations such as schools and churches.

Republicans have resisted reopening the six-bill package or stripping out the DHS measure, warning that changes would force the bill back to the House just days before the funding deadline. Still, moderate Sen. Mike Rounds, (R-S.D.) said member-to-member talks are gaining traction, including a possible short-term DHS stopgap while the remaining five bills move forward — a step that would require President Trump’s approval.

Scrutiny of Homeland Security leadership is also rising within GOP ranks. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said DHS Secretary Kristi Noem should step down, while Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said she would not support Noem again. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has called for pausing and reviewing ICE operations in both Maine and Minnesota.

Absent a breakthrough, Thursday’s procedural vote will determine whether the Senate can bridge the immigration divide — or edge closer to another shutdown.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

—Klobuchar pauses governor launch after border patrol killing

Minnesota senator delays campaign rollout amid immigration crisis and calls for ICE pullback

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) has delayed the planned launch of her Minnesota gubernatorial campaign following the fatal shooting of a Minneapolis protester by federal immigration agents, according to Politico.

Klobuchar had been set to announce her bid Monday but put those plans on hold after Border Patrol agents fatally shot Alex Pretti, a 37-year-old ICU nurse and U.S. citizen, over the weekend. Instead, she spent recent days speaking with White House and Trump administration officials, meeting with state and local leaders, and coordinating with Senate colleagues as tensions escalated.

The incident comes amid broader political upheaval in Minnesota after Gov. Tim Walz (D) unexpectedly dropped his reelection bid earlier this month. Klobuchar, who has traditionally taken a moderate approach on immigration, has called for ICE to leave the state while pushing for reforms rather than abolishing the agency.

Her stance has drawn both praise and criticism within the Democratic Party. Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) has called for voting against DHS funding and abolishing ICE, while some party leaders argue Klobuchar’s approach balances enforcement with accountability.

Klobuchar is still expected to formally launch her campaign before next week’s precinct caucuses. She has already filed campaign paperwork and is not expected to face a serious Democratic primary challenge, giving her flexibility as the immigration crisis continues to shape the race.

TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS

—Rail megamerger faces regulatory speed bump

Surface Transportation Board flags consolidation risks as Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern deal draws scrutiny

Union Pacific’s proposed $72 billion merger with Norfolk Southern — a deal that would create a single transcontinental freight rail network — has run into early resistance from federal regulators, underscoring deep concerns about consolidation in the U.S. rail industry.

The Surface Transportation Board (STB) said this month that the companies’ merger application was incomplete and must be refiled, temporarily slowing what would be one of the most consequential rail combinations in decades. Union Pacific CEO Jim Vena brushed off the setback, calling it a “short-term blip,” and said the companies expect to refile quickly, with the goal of closing the deal in 2027.

If approved, the merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern would reshape the freight rail landscape. Vena argues that a single coast-to-coast network would improve efficiency and make it easier to move goods across the country. He has also pitched the deal at the highest political levels, meeting last year with Donald Trump and discussing the merger’s benefits. Union Pacific has also donated an undisclosed amount to Trump’s White House ballroom project, a contribution Vena previously described as support for a “worthwhile cause.”

Regulators’ concerns go beyond paperwork. The U.S. freight rail market is already dominated by four carriers: Union Pacific, Norfolk Southern, CSX, and BNSF, the latter owned by Berkshire Hathaway. The STB has warned that combining two of the four could trigger a second merger — between CSX and BNSF — leaving more than 80% of U.S. rail car movements controlled by just two companies.

A key sticking point is market share. In their December filing, Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern presented a combined market share that did not account for additional business they expect to gain after merging. Rival railroads flagged the omission, prompting the STB to demand a revised calculation. Analysts estimate the merged company could control roughly 43% of the freight rail market. Vena acknowledged that figure in an interview, saying, “You might end up with that number — and I won’t argue with that number.”

For now, the regulator’s pushback highlights how closely Washington is watching the deal — and how high the bar may be for approving further consolidation in an industry already dominated by a handful of giants.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Lake-effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes… …Rain moves into the Northwest… …Snow over the Northern/Central Plains.