Trump Moves to Roll Back Metal & Aluminum Tariffs as Affordability Pressures Mount
House Farm Bill 2.0 official text, summaries today | E15 could be year-round issue
| LINKS |
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Feb. 1; update today
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Feb. 1; update today
| Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Feb. 13, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— Trump moves to roll back metal and aluminum tariffs
The administration is preparing a targeted easing of downstream metal tariffs to address voter affordability concerns ahead of the 2026 midterms, while keeping core trade authorities intact.
— Taiwan cuts tariffs on U.S. goods in new trade deal
Taiwan slashes duties on U.S. ag and industrial goods — including beef and cars — as U.S. tariffs on Taiwanese exports drop sharply, deepening bilateral trade ties.
— Senate Finance panel split on USMCA review
Lawmakers broadly back USMCA’s economic gains but clash over enforcement, tariffs on Canada, and how to confront China ahead of the 2026 sunset review.
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today
Global markets pull back amid AI disruption concerns and ahead of key U.S. inflation data.
— Equities yesterday
Major U.S. indexes fell sharply, with the Nasdaq down more than 2%.
— Kansas City Fed: Farmland values steady
Tenth District land prices held firm despite weaker farm income, supported by cattle strength and continued credit demand.
AG MARKETS
— India reopens limited wheat, sugar exports
New export approvals signal improved supplies after record wheat production, though high prices may curb global competitiveness.
— NCC survey: 9.0 million cotton acres in 2026
Cotton plantings expected to fall modestly, with Mid-South reductions offset by Southwest gains and a jump in ELS acreage.
— Ag markets yesterday
Grains and cotton rallied; cattle and hog futures declined.
FARM POLICY
— House Farm Bill 2.0 text due today
Chair GT Thompson faces tight floor math as the GOP proposal — including SNAP and Prop 12 provisions — heads into formal scrutiny.
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Friday: Oil prices slip
Crude heads for a second weekly loss as easing U.S.–Iran tensions and surplus forecasts weigh on prices.
— Thursday: IEA trims demand outlook
Oil fell sharply after the agency projected slower demand growth and persistent global oversupply.
— E15 fight intensifies
Independent refiners warn they’ll oppose year-round E15 unless RFS compliance costs are addressed, setting up a policy clash before the Feb. 15 deadline.
TRADE POLICY
— Washington Post opinion questions tariffs
Phil Gramm and Donald Boudreaux argue Trump’s tariff-heavy second term underperforms his tariff-light first term.
— Coalition defends USMCA ahead of July review
Ag groups cite $20B export growth and job gains, pushing targeted fixes on dairy, biotech, and ethanol rather than reopening the pact.
CONGRESS
— DHS funding deadline looms
Senate standoff over immigration enforcement reforms raises risk of a partial DHS shutdown before midnight.
FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY
— Cargill closing Milwaukee beef plant
221 jobs affected as tight cattle supplies and margin pressures prompt restructuring in the beef sector.
WEATHER
— Weekend system targets South, Southeast
Widespread precipitation expected; snow in higher western elevations; Plains stay well above normal temperatures.
| TOP STORIES — Trump moves to roll back metal and aluminum tariffs as affordability pressures mountFinancial Times reports latest softening reflects political and economic recalibration amid voter concern over prices President Donald Trump is preparing to roll back a portion of tariffs on metal and aluminum goods, according to the Financial Times, marking the latest shift in a trade strategy that has defined much of his second term. The move would ease duties on certain downstream products — particularly those used in manufacturing and consumer goods — while maintaining broader tariff authorities under national security and trade statutes. The adjustment comes as the White House balances its protectionist agenda with mounting voter anxiety over affordability, especially ahead of the 2026 midterms. Political recalibration amid price concerns. The FT reports that internal discussions reflect growing concern among administration officials and Republican lawmakers that higher input costs have filtered into consumer prices. While tariffs on primary steel and aluminum imports were intended to bolster domestic production and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers — particularly China — they have also raised costs for U.S. manufacturers in sectors such as autos, construction, appliances and packaging. With inflation having cooled from its 2025 peak but still above pre-pandemic norms, affordability remains a top voter issue. Retailers and business groups have lobbied for targeted relief, arguing that tariff-related input costs have compounded labor and logistics pressures. Administration officials, however, are framing the move as a refinement rather than a retreat. The White House is expected to preserve core protections for U.S. steelmakers and aluminum producers while carving out narrower exemptions for finished or semi-finished goods where domestic capacity is limited. Industry and market implications. For domestic metal producers, any rollback raises questions about pricing power and investment certainty. Shares in some industrial and manufacturing firms have been sensitive to tariff headlines in recent weeks, reflecting expectations that easing levies could reduce cost pressures downstream. Manufacturers, especially in the auto and heavy equipment sectors, have argued that the cumulative effect of Section 232 and other tariff authorities has squeezed margins and complicated supply chains. A targeted rollback could offer relief to those industries without fully dismantling the administration’s broader trade architecture. Broader trade strategy still intact. Despite the softening, the Trump administration continues to defend tariffs as a central tool of economic statecraft — citing national security, supply chain resilience, and leverage in negotiations with China, India and the European Union. The FT notes that this adjustment fits a pattern seen in prior trade actions: aggressive headline measures followed by selective refinements as political and economic pressures evolve. The White House has made clear that other trade authorities remain available if needed. The coming weeks will determine how extensive the rollback becomes — and whether it meaningfully shifts cost dynamics for U.S. businesses and consumers. — Taiwan cuts tariffs on U.S. goods in trade deal, wins broad relief on exportsTaipei slashes duties on cars and farm products — while average U.S. tariff on Taiwanese goods drops sharply Taiwan and the U.S. have reached a new trade agreement (link) that lowers tariffs on thousands of products on both sides, with Taiwan opening its market to select U.S. beef products and passenger cars in exchange for significant tariff relief on its exports. Link to USTR fact sheet. Speaking in Washington, D.C., Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun said Taiwan’s negotiating team “achieved its key goals,” calling the overall impact favorable for the island’s economy. Major gains for Taiwan exports. The agreement sharply reduces the average tariff rate on Taiwanese exports to the U.S. — falling to 12.3% from 35.78%. Key highlights:• 76% of Taiwan’s exports to the U.S. fall under Section 232 measures and will now receive most-favored tariff treatment• The share of exports subject to tariffs drops to 15.5%, down from 24%• 2,072 Taiwanese products gain tariff exemptions• 42% of Taiwan’s agricultural exports to the U.S. become tariff-free• 36% of its industrial exports enter tariff-free The reductions are significant for Taiwan’s manufacturing-heavy export base, particularly in industrial sectors affected by U.S. trade actions in recent years. Taiwan opens its market. In return, Taiwan agreed to broad tariff reductions on U.S. goods:• 4,885 U.S. industrial products will see tariffs cut to zero — including passenger cars• 1,482 U.S. agricultural products will have tariffs reduced to zero• Tariffs on 15 pork products will be halved by year three, with rates adjusted to between 6.3% and 10% On beef, Taiwan will allow imports of ground beef and certain offal products, though the access stops short of a full reopening across all cuts. Taiwan ranks as the fifth-largest destination for U.S. beef, with exports totaling roughly $650 million, and the United States remains Taiwan’s leading beef supplier. The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) said expanded access for all U.S. beef products — including cuts popular in yakiniku barbecue and emerging gourmet burger concepts — presents meaningful growth opportunities. Removing tariffs on U.S. beef will strengthen the industry’s competitive position in this key market. U.S. pork has faced significant disadvantages in Taiwan, where suppliers from the European Union and Canada currently hold a dominant share of imports. USMEF believes that lowering both tariff and non-tariff barriers can help increase U.S. pork shipments, while the organization continues its work to rebuild Taiwanese consumer confidence in U.S. pork. The agreement also clarifies market access for U.S. bison and eliminates tariffs on U.S. lamb. The agreement now heads to Taiwan’s Legislature for review. The deal signals continued deepening of U.S./Taiwan trade ties at a time of heightened global supply-chain realignment and evolving U.S. tariff policy. — Senate Finance panel divided over USMCA review as lawmakers weigh enforcement, tariffs, and ChinaBipartisan praise for trade pact’s economic gains collides with sharp debate over enforcement, Trump tariffs, and 2026 sunset review The Senate Finance Committee convened Thursday to assess the six-year performance of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), exposing a clear fault line: broad bipartisan support for the agreement’s economic impact — and deep disagreement over enforcement and President Donald Trump’s tariff strategy heading into the 2026 joint review. Chair Michael Crapo (R-Id.) opened the hearing by underscoring the scale of USMCA’s footprint. Trade with Canada and Mexico supports roughly 13 million U.S. jobs, he said, and agricultural exports to the two partners now total $60 billion — about one-third of all U.S. farm exports. Since the agreement took effect in 2020, investment from Canada and Mexico into the U.S. has reached $775 billion, a 55% increase from pre-USMCA levels. Crapo acknowledged imperfections — particularly in enforcement — but warned against destabilizing a trilateral framework that anchors North American competitiveness. “Do not let the perfect become the enemy of the good,” he said, urging a timely conclusion to the July review process to preserve business certainty. Wyden: Enforcement gaps and tariff chaos undermine gains. Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) agreed that USMCA was a major bipartisan achievement — noting its 89-10 Senate approval — but argued the agreement cannot succeed without aggressive enforcement. Wyden sharply criticized the Trump administration for failing to initiate new enforcement cases under USMCA and accused the president of undercutting the agreement with unilateral tariffs on Canada. “The fact is USMCA delivered real wins,” Wyden said. “But without strong enforcement, trade agreements are not worth the paper they’re written on.” He pointed to declining exports to Canada and recent manufacturing contraction as signs that tariff volatility has injected uncertainty into supply chains. Witnesses split on performance and reform. Former House Ways and Means Chair Kevin Brady (R-Tex.) delivered a full-throated defense of USMCA as “the gold standard” of trade agreements and a signature achievement of Trump’s first term. Brady emphasized three design pillars he described as the agreement’s “secret sauce:”1) Zero tariffs across most goods2) Exemptions from other tariff levies3) Deep trilateral supply-chain integration Together, he argued, those elements have reduced dependence on China and attracted major North American investment into U.S. manufacturing and technology sectors. Eric Gottwald of the AFL-CIO offered a more skeptical view, saying that while labor supported USMCA reforms in 2019, the pact has not delivered promised gains for workers. He noted the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico has grown from $125 billion to $263 billion since implementation and warned that Chinese investment into Mexico has more than doubled, raising transshipment concerns. Gottwald urged lawmakers to use the 2026 review to negotiate binding labor benchmarks, strengthen the rapid response mechanism, and tighten rules of origin to prevent backdoor access to U.S. markets. Dairy disputes spotlight Canada and Mexico. Ted Vander Schaaf, an Idaho dairy producer, testified that exports — particularly to Mexico and Canada — are essential to U.S. dairy survival, with 19% of U.S. milk production now exported. He accused Canada of manipulating tariff-rate quotas by allocating them primarily to domestic processors that have little incentive to import U.S. dairy. He also warned that Mexico has yet to fully implement commitments to protect common cheese names such as Parmesan and feta. Several senators echoed those concerns, including Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), who pressed for stronger compliance mechanisms in the review. Auto sector: certainty and critical minerals. Paul McCarthy, president of MEMA, representing U.S. vehicle suppliers, said USMCA has increased domestic parts production by $37 billion since 2019 and reduced reliance on non–North American parts by 25%. But he stressed that “certainty” is the sector’s top priority, given long capital investment cycles. Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) emphasized leveraging the review to secure North American supply chains for semiconductors and critical minerals, arguing that allied coordination is essential to counter China. Tariff tensions divide lawmakers. Democrats, including Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), argued that the administration’s tariff strategy has raised consumer costs and injected volatility into investment planning. Republicans such as John Cornyn (R-Tex.) and Steve Daines (R-Mont.) defended the review as an opportunity to strengthen economic security provisions, counter Chinese transshipment, and reinforce supply chain resilience. Despite sharp exchanges, both sides repeatedly returned to two shared themes: enforcement must improve, and North American integration remains strategically vital in competition with China. What comes next. The USMCA six-year joint review is scheduled for July 2026. Without trilateral agreement, the pact would enter annual review cycles under its sunset clause, increasing uncertainty for businesses and farmers alike. Crapo closed the hearing by reaffirming bipartisan interest in strengthening — not abandoning — the agreement. Wyden ended where he began: without enforcement, the benefits of USMCA cannot be sustained. For now, the Finance Committee’s message is clear: USMCA remains central to U.S. agriculture, manufacturing, and supply chains — but its next chapter hinges on whether Congress and the Trump administration can align on enforcement, certainty, and strategy toward China. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
— Equities today: Global markets retreated from recent highs as concerns about potential AI-driven disruptions kept investors cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data. Wall Street futures were in the red after major North American markets fell sharply yesterday.
— Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Feb. 12 | Point Difference from Feb. 11 | % Difference from Feb. 11 |
| Dow | 49,451.98 | -669.42 | -1.34% |
| Nasdaq | 22,597.15 | -469.32 | -2.03% |
| S&P 500 | 6,832.76 | -108.71 | -1.57% |
— Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City: Farmland values remain firm despite financial strain
Tenth District land markets hold steady as farm income softens and loan demand climbs
Agricultural real estate values across the Tenth Federal Reserve District held remarkably firm in 2025, even as farm finances continued to erode. According to the latest Agricultural Credit Survey (link), cropland values were essentially flat from a year earlier, while ranchland values posted modest gains — supported largely by strength in the cattle sector.
Farm finances weaken, but stress remains contained. Farm income and liquidity declined at a pace like 2024, with about 45% of borrowers carrying current ratios below 1.5 — a sign of tightening working capital. Loan repayment rates deteriorated again, though the pace of decline slowed in the fourth quarter.
Demand for non-real-estate farm loans surged at the fastest pace in roughly a decade, reflecting higher production costs, tighter liquidity and elevated cattle prices. Interest rates on farm loans dipped modestly in Q4 but remain well above long-term averages, increasing financing pressure for leveraged operators.
Despite weaker crop-sector margins, broader financial stress remains limited. Direct government payments and strong land values continue to cushion balance sheets, and cattle income gains have helped offset row-crop weakness in several states.
Farmland markets: stable, selective, cattle driven. Land markets softened slightly but remained resilient.
• Cropland values: roughly unchanged year over year (about +1%).
• Ranchland values: increased modestly, reaching record levels in some areas.
• Regional differences: Oklahoma and the Mountain States (Colorado, northern New Mexico, Wyoming) saw comparatively stronger gains due to heavier cattle exposure, while more crop-intensive states such as Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska experienced slight cropland declines.
Sales volumes and overall demand were steady. Farmers remained the primary buyers but accounted for slightly less than 75% of purchases — the lowest share since 2011.
Cash rents reflected similar trends: cropland rents slipped 2–3%, while grazing rents rose about 3%.
Returns remain competitive relative to bonds. The capitalization rate on nonirrigated cropland has declined but still sits about 75 basis points above 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yields, though roughly 150 basis points below standard 10-year Treasury yields. In an elevated interest-rate environment, that spread suggests farmland remains relatively attractive when inflation is considered.
Bottom Line: Even as crop margins tighten and liquidity thins, strong cattle markets, steady demand, and resilient land valuations are helping prevent broader financial stress.
The key risk going forward: persistent crop-sector weakness that could further pressure repayment rates and credit conditions if commodity prices fail to improve.
| AG MARKETS |
— India reopens limited wheat, sugar exports
Move aims to support farmers and steady markets, but high prices may curb shipments
India’s federal government has approved the export of 2.5 million metric tons of wheat and an additional 500,000 tons of sugar, signaling a cautious reopening of overseas sales as supplies recover and production rebounds.
Officials said the decision follows a review of domestic supply and price trends, with the twin goals of stabilizing the local market and ensuring better financial returns for farmers. The move builds on earlier steps — including last month’s approval for 500,000 tons of wheat flour and other wheat products, and November’s clearance of 1.5 million tons of sugar exports for the current marketing season that began Oct. 1.
Price premium poses export challenge. While traders say the announcement should improve market sentiment, actually shipping the full volumes may prove difficult. Indian wheat is currently offered at around $280 per metric ton, free-on-board, well above competing supplies.
Argentine wheat is priced closer to $200 per ton, and Bangladesh — traditionally a major buyer of Indian grain — is sourcing higher-quality wheat at about $260 per ton, cost and freight. That premium could limit India’s competitiveness in global tenders.
From export ban to record harvest. India banned wheat exports in 2022 after extreme heat waves shriveled crops and tightened domestic supplies. The restriction was extended in 2023 and 2024 as reserves thinned and local prices surged to record highs, fueling speculation that India might need to import wheat for the first time since 2017.
Conditions have since improved. Better weather, climate-resilient seed varieties, and adequate soil moisture from two consecutive strong monsoons helped boost output. In 2025, India harvested a record 117.9 million metric tons of wheat, easing supply concerns and allowing policymakers to cautiously re-enter export markets.
The decision marks a notable shift for the world’s second-largest wheat and sugar producer — though global price competitiveness will determine how much grain ultimately leaves Indian ports.
— National Cotton Council survey points to 9.0 million cotton acres in 2026
Modest acreage decline led by Southeast and Mid-South; Southwest Gains and ELS increase offset steeper cuts
U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 9.0 million acres in 2026 — down 3.2 % from 2025 — according to the National Cotton Council’s 45th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey, released at the group’s annual meeting.
Production outlook
• Upland cotton: 8.8 million acres (-3.4%)
• Extra-long staple (ELS): 161,000 acres (+14.0%)
Assuming average abandonment and yields, harvested area is projected at 7.1 million acres, generating an estimated 12.7 million bales, including:
• 12.3 million upland bales
• 393,000 ELS bales
NCC Vice President of Economics & Policy Analysis Dr. Jody Campiche noted acreage is only one supply factor, with weather and agronomic conditions ultimately determining crop size.
Price signals mixed. Compared to early 2025:
• Cotton futures prices were nearly unchanged
• Corn prices slightly lower
• Soybean prices slightly higher
That left the cotton-to-corn price ratio slightly higher, but the cotton-to-soybean ratio lower, suggesting only limited acreage shifts based on historical planting responses. The modest 3.2 percent decline aligns with those price dynamics.
Regional Breakdown
Southeast (1.6 million acres, -4.9%)
• Georgia down 3.6% to 805,000 acres — near multi-decade lows
• North Carolina (-6.0%), South Carolina (-10.5%), Virginia (-17.9%)
• Florida down 11.1%; Alabama essentially flat
• Shifts favor corn and soybeans
Mid-South (1.2 million acres, -20.6%)
• Arkansas (-30.3%)
• Mississippi (-15.8%)
• Missouri (-25.0%)
• Tennessee (-12.5%)
• Louisiana (+17.1%)
• Corn and soybeans gaining share
Southwest (+1.6%)
• Kansas (+9.6%)
• Oklahoma (+15.7%)
• Texas (+0.4%)
• Acreage moving from wheat and sorghum into cotton in parts of the region
West (upland -7.2%)
• Arizona (-4.2%)
• California (-4.4%)
• New Mexico (-17.6%)
ELS Cotton Expansion. ELS acreage is projected to rise 14.0 percent nationally:
• Texas (+69.8%)
• California (+8.0%)
• Arizona (+3.2%)
• New Mexico (-20.6%)
Bottom Line: The survey reflects cautious acreage trimming in the face of mixed commodity price signals and tighter farm margins. While the Mid-South shows significant pullback, Southwest expansion and a notable jump in ELS cotton help moderate the national decline.
Producers will continue adjusting plans as commodity prices, input costs, and weather conditions evolve ahead of spring planting.
— Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Feb. 12 | Change from Feb. 11 |
| Corn | March | $4.31 1/4 | +3 3/4¢ |
| Soybeans | March | $11.37 1/4 | +13 1/4¢ |
| Soybean Meal | March | $307.90 | +$4.90 |
| Soybean Oil | March | 57.54 | +49 points |
| Wheat (SRW) | March | $5.52 1/2 | +15 1/4¢ |
| Wheat (HRW) | March | $5.54 | +15 1/2¢ |
| Spring Wheat | March | $5.77 1/2 | +7 1/4¢ |
| Cotton | March | 62.29¢ | +30 points |
| Live Cattle | April | $240.65 | -32 1/2¢ |
| Feeder Cattle | March | $365.725 | -$1.725 |
| Lean Hogs | April | $91.825 | -$2.025 |
| FARM POLICY |
— Text and summary of House Farm Bill 2.0 finally to be officially released this afternoon
Hurdles ahead in House as Ag Chair GT Thompson needs some Dem votes
The long-awaited legislative text and section-by-section summary of the House’s “Farm Bill 2.0” are expected to be officially released this afternoon, marking a major procedural step after months of closed-door negotiations and draft circulation.
House Ag Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-Pa.) has been signaling for weeks that the committee was nearing completion of a revised framework. The official text release will allow members, farm organizations, and budget scorekeepers to begin formal analysis — and scrutiny.
The GOP plan includes provisions that would block states from requiring pesticide makers to label their packaging in any way that differs from EPA guidance, undo restrictions of livestock sales under laws like California’s Proposition 12 and house Food for Peace under USDA permanently.
But the policy rollout is only the beginning. The real test lies in floor math.
The vote challenge: With a narrow House majority, Thompson cannot afford significant defections within his own conference — particularly from fiscal conservatives wary of increased baseline spending or changes to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) policy. At the same time, deep cuts or stricter eligibility standards could cost him moderate Republican and Democratic support.
Privately, leadership aides acknowledge that some Democratic votes will be necessary to offset Republican opposition. That dynamic echoes previous farm bill cycles, where bipartisan coalitions — often rural Dem
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
— Friday: Oil prices slip on eased U.S./Iran tension
Brent and WTI head for second weekly drop amid weaker demand and rising supply prospects
Oil prices fell again on Friday, extending losses for a second straight week as geopolitical risk eased and market fundamentals pointed to ample supply.
Brent crude was down about 0.2% near $67.40 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dipped to around $62.71 — after earlier steep losses this week. Brent is on track to fall around 0.8% for the week and WTI about 1.1%.
Earlier in the week, concerns that a potential U.S. military action against Iran—over its nuclear program—had bolstered prices. But remarks from President Donald Trump suggesting a possible deal with Tehran in coming weeks reduced that near-term geopolitical risk premium, sending prices lower.
Analysts also noted signs of weakening demand and growing supply pressure. The International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its global oil-demand growth forecasts and projected that supply would exceed demand this year, contributing to a market surplus. Large builds in U.S. crude inventories and expectations that Venezuelan exports could rise further have also weighed on sentiment.
Despite recent bearish drivers, some market observers say prices are not collapsing, hinting at slowing downside momentum even as oversupply concerns persist.
— Thursday: International Energy Agency flags slower demand growth as crude slides
Brent, WTI reverse early gains on surplus forecasts and U.S. inventory build
Oil prices fell sharply Thursday, reversing earlier gains as fresh data pointed to softer demand and ample supply ahead.
Brent crude settled at $67.52 per barrel, down $1.88 (2.7%), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) finished at $62.84, down $1.79 (2.8%). The drop erased support that had briefly lifted prices earlier in the session.
Demand outlook weakens. The selloff accelerated after the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly oil market report, trimming its outlook for global oil demand growth this year. The agency warned that a sizeable surplus is likely to persist, even accounting for supply outages that trimmed output in January. The IEA — along with other long-range forecasters — projects global inventories will continue building into 2026, underscoring concerns that supply growth is outpacing demand.
Geopolitical premium fades. Earlier in the day, crude had found support from lingering Middle East tensions. But as signs emerged that U.S./Iran frictions may not escalate further, some of the geopolitical risk premium faded. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated that diplomatic efforts with Iran are ongoing, easing near-term fears of supply disruption.
In the United States, government data showed a much larger-than-expected build in crude inventories, reinforcing the narrative of abundant supply. The increase came even as some domestic production challenges have begun to ease.
Bigger picture: surplus theme dominates. Beyond the daily volatility, the broader theme remains intact — a global oil market expected to stay oversupplied into 2026. Major energy agencies continue to forecast inventory builds next year, even with intermittent geopolitical flare-ups.
For markets already sensitive to demand softness and resilient production, Thursday’s price action reinforced the prevailing view: risk premiums can fade quickly, but surplus fundamentals are harder to ignore.
— Fueling American Jobs Coalition draws line on E15 expansion
Independent refiners warn year-round E15 must include RFS cost controls or risk industry shakeout
The Fueling American Jobs Coalition (FAJC) — which represents independent oil refiners — said Thursday it will not back any congressional proposal to authorize year-round E15 sales unless lawmakers also include measures to contain compliance costs under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS).
The statement lands at a sensitive moment. The Rural Domestic Energy Council is preparing to send recommendations to Congress by Feb. 15, with year-round E15 authority at the center of its discussions. Industry groups across agriculture and biofuels have pushed hard for permanent nationwide E15 access, arguing it would stabilize fuel markets, lower pump prices and expand ethanol demand.
But FAJC is warning that expanded E15, if paired with a higher implied Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) under the RFS, could sharply increase Renewable Identification Number (RIN) costs for refiners — particularly smaller, independent operators without blending infrastructure.
Quote of note: “Current draft proposals might work for the world’s largest oil companies, many of whom have offshored refining capacity,” FAJC said, “but these so-called ‘compromises’ will only force mid-size, independent American refiners out of business.”
The cost argument. Under the RFS, refiners must either blend renewable fuels like ethanol into gasoline or purchase RIN credits to demonstrate compliance. Independent refiners argue that expanded E15 availability could effectively ratchet up blending mandates — and thus RIN exposure — without structural reforms to cap volatility or ease credit costs.
Their concern:
• Large integrated oil companies often have blending capacity and retail networks that generate RINs.
• Independent refiners frequently must buy RINs on the open market.
When RIN prices spike, smaller refiners say margins can compress rapidly — particularly in today’s softer gasoline demand environment and amid broader uncertainty tied to global oil markets and U.S. trade policy.
The broader E15 debate. Year-round E15 sales have been a long-standing priority for corn growers and ethanol producers, who argue that eliminating seasonal volatility restrictions would:
• Boost domestic ethanol demand
• Reduce reliance on imported petroleum
• Support rural economies
Agriculture groups contend that higher ethanol blends can also lower fuel prices and reduce emissions.
However, refining groups remain wary of policy changes that expand blending requirements without parallel RFS reforms — such as adjustments to the small refinery exemption process, RIN market guardrails, or mandate recalibration.
Congressional crossroads. With the Rural Domestic Energy Council deadline approaching, lawmakers face a delicate balancing act:
• Farm-state lawmakers want certainty on E15 before the summer driving season.
• Refining-state lawmakers are pressing for cost protections.
• The Trump administration has broadly supported expanded domestic energy production, including biofuels, but remains attentive to fuel price sensitivity among voters.
If Congress advances a stand-alone E15 bill without RFS guardrails, FAJC’s opposition signals a potential fracture within the broader energy coalition — setting up a renewed fight between biofuel advocates and independent refiners.
Bottom Line: The next two weeks could determine whether year-round E15 becomes a bipartisan energy win — or another flashpoint in the long-running RFS battle.
| TRADE POLICY |
— The Washington Post opinion: the best evidence against Trump’s tariffs? His own first term
Gramm and Boudreaux argue 2017’s tariff-free economy outperformed 2025 under new trade levies
In a recent opinion piece in the Washington Post (link), former U.S. senator Phil Gramm and economist Donald J. Boudreaux contend that the strongest rebuttal to President Donald Trump’s current tariff policy is a comparison with his own first term.
The authors frame the analysis as a “controlled experiment”: In 2017, Trump pursued deregulation and tax cuts but did not impose sweeping tariffs. In 2025, they argue, those same pro-growth policies returned — but were paired with the highest tariffs since the Great Depression. The economic results, they say, favor the earlier period.
They cite slower job growth in 2025 versus 2017, including a decline in manufacturing employment compared with gains during the first term. Median household income and real wage growth also rose more modestly in 2025, according to their data. Industrial production growth was weaker, and stock market gains — while positive — lagged behind first-term performance.
Although GDP growth through the first three quarters of both years was similar at 2.5%, Gramm and Boudreaux argue that private domestic investment expanded more robustly in 2017 than in 2025. They also suggest some recent investment gains stem from subsidies enacted during the Biden administration rather than tariff policy.
The authors attribute what they call underperformance in 2025 largely to tariffs, arguing that most U.S. imports are production inputs and that higher duties raise costs for American producers and consumers. Citing research from the Kiel Institute, they claim U.S. importers and consumers bear the overwhelming share of tariff costs.
Their conclusion: deregulation and tax cuts strengthened growth in Trump’s first term, while broad tariffs in his second term have weighed on economic performance rather than enhanced it.
— Broad coalition makes case for USMCA ahead of July review
Industry groups cite $20B export surge, job gains, and push targeted fixes on dairy, biotech, and ethanol
A newly formed Agricultural Coalition for USMCA is mounting a coordinated defense of the trade pact ahead of its July review, arguing the agreement has delivered outsized gains for U.S. agriculture and rural communities.
In an analysis released this week, the coalition found that U.S. agricultural exports to Canada and Mexico climbed by $20 billion between 2020 and 2024, reaching $60 billion in 2024 — plus an additional $1.2 billion in seafood exports. That represents a 47% growth rate, compared with 18% growth in ag exports to the rest of the world over the same period.
The coalition — whose members include the American Farm Bureau Federation, National Association of State Departments of Agriculture, and the Agricultural Retailers Association — is urging policymakers to renew USMCA with “targeted adjustments,” rather than reopen the agreement wholesale.
Economic multiplier effects. Beyond farm receipts, the report emphasizes broader economic spillovers. According to the analysis:
• U.S. ag and seafood exports to Mexico and Canada supported $149 billion in U.S. economic output in 2024.
• Every $1 in exports under USMCA generated $2.45 in additional U.S. economic activity.
• Nearly 500,000 full-time equivalent jobs were supported, with $36 billion in wages tied to export activity.
The coalition argues those benefits extend “past the farm gate,” supporting reinvestment in hospitals, vehicle sales, tourism, and other rural economic activity — a key message as farm income pressures persist in several commodity sectors.
Dairy frustrations with Canada. While supportive of the pact overall, industry groups are pressing for fixes.
The National Milk Producers Federation wants changes to how Canada allocates dairy tariff-rate quotas (TRQs). U.S. dairy interests have long argued that Canada channels most quota access to domestic processors, limiting meaningful U.S. market access. Two disputes have already been litigated under USMCA — the U.S. prevailed in the first and lost the second.
Dairy groups are also concerned about low-priced Canadian dairy protein exports. They’ve called for scrutiny of the global nonfat milk solids market, with a U.S. International Trade Commission report due April 27.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer previously identified Canada’s dairy policies as a top issue heading into the review.
Corn, ethanol, and biotech clarity. The National Corn Growers Association is seeking expanded ethanol access to Mexico and clearer biotech rules.
The U.S. won a 2024 USMCA dispute after Mexico restricted genetically engineered corn imports. Corn leaders now want language clarifications to prevent Mexico from invoking “non-science reasons” to limit biotechnology — while avoiding a full rewrite of the agreement’s core text.
Preserving a trilateral system. The International Fresh Produce Association emphasized that USMCA must remain trilateral, not splinter into bilateral arrangements. Fresh produce supply chains, the group argues, are deeply integrated across North America, with growers and distributors managing seasonality, weather risk, and perishability across borders.
That comes as some regional producers continue pushing for stronger seasonal import protections, particularly on Mexican tomatoes — an issue the Commerce Department addressed last year by ending a longstanding antidumping suspension agreement.
Bottom Line: With USMCA’s scheduled review looming in July, the coalition is framing the debate around measurable export growth, job creation, and rural economic multipliers — while signaling that dairy access, biotech enforcement, and ethanol trade will be central battlegrounds in the negotiations ahead.
In short: keep the framework, fix the friction points
| CONGRESS |
— DHS funding deadline
Congressional standoff over immigration enforcement and sweeping Minneapolis ICE operation ahead of midnight deadline
Congress faces a Friday night funding deadline to keep the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funded, and lawmakers remain deeply divided over immigration enforcement reforms tied to controversial federal actions in Minneapolis. Senate Democrats blocked a bipartisan DHS funding bill this week, demanding measures to curb aggressive tactics by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) following the fatal shootings of two U.S. citizens by federal agents in Minneapolis as part of Operation Metro Surge.
Democratic lawmakers have conditioned support for DHS funding on tighter limits and greater oversight of ICE and CBP, including requirements for body cameras, restrictions on operations near sensitive locations, and clearer identification for agents. They argue such reforms are necessary considering the Minneapolis incidents and broader concerns about use of force and accountability. Republicans, while not uniformly opposed to some proposals like body cameras, reject many of the Democrats’ demands as undermining enforcement and say the deadline should not be used to extract sweeping immigration policy changes.
Funding for most of the federal government runs through September, but DHS has been operating under a short-term continuing resolution that expires tonight at midnight. With negotiations stalled and the Senate unable to clear a funding bill, a partial DHS shutdown appears increasingly likely, though critical immigration enforcement functions could continue under existing appropriations and prior supplemental funding.
Separately, the Trump administration has announced the end of its large-scale Operation Metro Surge immigration enforcement campaign in Minneapolis after extensive backlash, including protests and political pressure following the deaths of Renée Good and Alex Pretti during the operation.
| FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY |
— Cargill to close Milwaukee ground beef plant
Company cites shifting market dynamics as long-running Wisconsin facility prepares to wind down operations
Cargill plans to close its ground beef processing facility in Milwaukee, marking the end of more than two decades of operations at the Wisconsin site. The plant, which has been operated by the company since 2001, has focused primarily on producing ground beef products for retail and foodservice customers. The closure reflects broader adjustments within the beef processing sector as companies respond to tight cattle supplies, shifting consumer demand, and ongoing margin pressures across the protein complex.
The move will eliminate 221 jobs, according to a filing with the state, the latest U.S. beef plant to be shuttered amid rising costs for meatpackers.
The Cargill Meat Solutions facility will stop production around mid-April and fully close around the end of May, a notice filed by Cargill with the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development said. The plant specializes in fresh beef, ground beef, and value-added products but does not slaughter cattle.
The decision comes at a time when the U.S. cattle herd remains near multi-decade lows, limiting slaughter capacity utilization and prompting processors to reassess plant-level economics.
For Milwaukee, the closure represents a significant change in local manufacturing activity. Workforce impacts and transition plans are expected to unfold in the coming months, with the company typically offering support measures such as relocation opportunities or separation packages where feasible.
The move underscores the broader restructuring underway in the U.S. beef industry as operators navigate constrained supplies, elevated cattle costs, and uneven consumer demand — especially in value-added and ground beef categories that have been sensitive to price volatility.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Low pressure system forecast to bring widespread precipitation to the South and Southeast this weekend… …Snow showers expected across higher elevations of the Interior West and Pacific Northwest… …Well above normal temperatures across the Plains.
