NCGA Report: Corn in Jeopardy
EPA officially rescinds 2009 endangerment finding | USDA proposes faster line speeds for poultry and pork plants
| LINKS |
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Feb. 13
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Feb. 13
| Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Feb. 18, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— America’s corn crop at risk
An NCGA report warns U.S. corn producers face generational decline as rising costs, consolidation, volatile returns, and global competition threaten family farm succession. Off-farm income is now essential for most producers, and without structural demand growth and trade expansion, NCGA argues farm consolidation will accelerate.
— EPA rescinds 2009 endangerment finding
The Trump administration formally reversed EPA’s climate endangerment determination, removing the legal foundation for federal greenhouse-gas regulation under the Clean Air Act and setting up a major Supreme Court battle over EPA authority.
— USDA proposes faster line speeds for poultry and pork plants
USDA’s FSIS proposed increasing poultry line speeds and allowing pork plants more flexibility under inspection modernization systems, framing the move as a supply-chain and cost-containment measure while labor groups warn of worker-safety risks.
— Biofuels groups blast delays on year-round E15 legislation
Growth Energy, NCGA, and RFA criticized House leaders after the E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council missed its Feb. 15 deadline, arguing bipartisan legislation already exists and urging action to stabilize ethanol demand amid farm income stress.
— U.S. sees first non-Covid drop in international visitors since the Great Recession
Canadian travel to the U.S. declined sharply in 2025 amid rising trade friction and political tensions, reversing post-pandemic recovery trends and signaling spillover effects into tourism and economic flows.
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today
Global stocks edged higher as investors weighed earnings and awaited FOMC minutes, following a decision to hold rates at 3.5%–3.75% with two dissenting votes for a cut.
— Equities yesterday
Major U.S. indices posted modest gains, with the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all slightly higher versus last week.
— Christine Lagarde may step down early as ECB president
The Financial Times reports Lagarde could leave before her term ends in 2027, raising succession questions as the ECB navigates easing inflation, weak growth, and debate over the timing of rate cuts.
AG MARKETS
— CoBank: soybeans set to gain ground in 2026 planting season
CoBank projects soybean acreage up nearly 6% to 86 million acres as producers rotate away from record 2025 corn plantings amid better relative returns and renewable fuel demand prospects; rice faces the steepest acreage decline.
— Agriculture markets yesterday
Corn and wheat weakened; soybeans were mixed; livestock futures posted gains, with feeder cattle leading higher.
FARM POLICY
— House Ag Committee schedules farm bill markup
Chairman GT Thompson (R-Pa.) set Monday markup of HR 7567 — the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026 — marking a critical step in advancing a new farm bill amid partisan divisions and mounting farm financial pressure.
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil rebounds as Russia/Ukraine talks falter
Crude prices rose over 1% as stalled negotiations and continued Strait of Hormuz tensions restored geopolitical risk premium ahead of U.S. inventory data.
— Oil slides on U.S./Iran diplomatic progress
Prices fell to two-week lows after constructive nuclear talks eased supply fears, though Hormuz volatility underscored ongoing fragility.
— IEA chief warns of widening global energy policy divisions
Fatih Birol told the Financial Times that climate change is slipping down the global policy agenda as geopolitical fragmentation drives divergent national energy strategies.
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
— White House maritime action plan draws bipartisan backing
Sponsors of the SHIPS for America Act praised the administration’s Maritime Action Plan, which proposes a Maritime Security Trust Fund, shipyard tax credits, and potential port fees on foreign-built vessels to rebuild U.S. shipbuilding capacity.
WEATHER
— NWS outlook
Heavy Sierra and Intermountain snow continues; a winter system stretches from the Upper Midwest to New England; another storm targets the Plains; above-average warmth persists in the central and eastern U.S., while the West remains cooler.
| TOP STORIES—America’s corn crop at riskNCGA report warns of generational decline, rising costs, and global competition threatening U.S. corn farms In “America’s Crop at Risk: The Future of Corn and Family Farms,” released by the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), the organization argues that U.S. corn producers are confronting one of the most precarious periods in the nation’s 250-year agricultural history, with structural financial pressures, consolidation, and global competition putting the next generation of family farms at risk. Link to report Generational transfer under strain. The report centers on a 2026 NCGA survey of 1,000 corn growers that paints a troubling picture for succession planning.• 79% say the next generation could not succeed without support from the current generation.• Only 43% expect a relative to own and operate their farm in the future, while 57% report uncertainty or non-family transition.• Just 14% believe it is “very likely” the next generation could succeed without off-farm income. NCGA warns that without structural change, consolidation will accelerate and family-operated farms will continue to decline. Fewer farms, accelerating losses. Farm numbers have fallen from a 1935 peak of 6.8 million to 1.87 million in 2025, declining at roughly 1.15% annually — a pace comparable to the steep losses of the 1970s. The report projects that if this rate continues, the U.S. could fall below 1.5 million farms within two decades, reaching levels not seen since the 1850 Census. Compounding the concern:• 7% of farmers surveyed say they may retire or exit earlier than planned in 2026.• If realized, that could mean more than 131,000 farms lost in a single year. Productivity gains without profitability. The report highlights the paradox of modern corn production: extraordinary productivity gains but stagnant or volatile profitability. Corn output rose from 2.4 billion bushels on 106 million acres in 1925 to 17.0 billion bushels on 98.8 million acres in 2025. Yet USDA cost-and-return data show increasingly volatile and often negative net returns per acre, especially in recent years. NCGA notes corn growers are entering a fourth consecutive year of projected losses, producing crops that cost more to grow than expected selling prices. Off-farm income now essential. The modern farm household increasingly depends on outside employment:• 95% of farm households have off-farm income.• Off-farm income accounts for 80% of total household income in 2025, up from 53% in 1960.• Nearly two-thirds of operators maintain off-farm jobs, many working more than 100 days per year away from the farm.• Young and beginning farmers work off-farm at even higher rates — nearly 80%. NCGA argues this dependence reflects structural weakness in farm profitability rather than diversification by choice. Rising costs and industry consolidation. Production costs have climbed steadily for decades, driven in part by consolidation in seed, fertilizer, pesticide, and machinery markets.• The top two firms now control 71.6% of the U.S. corn seed market.• Seed costs per acre have risen 660% since 1990, more than double the increase in total production costs. As a result, 74% of farmers plan cost-cutting measures in 2026, including delaying capital purchases (61%), reducing fertilizer (36%), and cutting other inputs (33%). Operating loan sizes hit record highs in 2025, with elevated interest rates increasing financial strain. Global competitiveness pressures. The report also warns that U.S. agriculture’s global leadership is eroding:• The U.S. share of global agricultural production value fell from 14.5% in 1961 to 8.5% in 2024, while China and India expanded.• Brazil benefits from lower land costs and faster regulatory approvals, and maintains a 30% ethanol blend mandate, compared to ongoing U.S. struggles to expand beyond 15%. NCGA argues that regulatory timelines, labor standards, and uneven trade policies are placing U.S. producers at a cost disadvantage relative to competitors. Policy call: durable demand, not ad hoc aid. In its conclusion, NCGA urges Congress to move beyond temporary assistance toward policies that:• Expand access to emerging markets, including sustainable aviation fuel and the broader bioeconomy.• Strengthen trade relationships.• Ensure U.S. producers are not placed at structural competitive disadvantage. While acknowledging legislative gridlock, the association says it will pursue new demand channels outside traditional policy pathways, arguing that corn must remain central to America’s economic and energy future Bottom Line: The report frames 2026 as a pivotal moment. Despite historic productivity and technological gains, corn growers face a convergence of low returns, rising costs, consolidation, and global competition that threatens generational transfer. Without structural reforms that stabilize profitability and expand demand, NCGA warns the U.S. risks losing another generation of family farmers. —EPA officially rescinds 2009 endangerment findingTrump administration move sets up major legal battle over climate authority The Environmental Protection Agency has published a final rule in the Federal Register (link) formally rescinding the 2009 “endangerment finding,” a landmark determination that greenhouse gases (GHGs) threaten public health and welfare and therefore can be regulated under the Clean Air Act. The 2009 finding served as the legal foundation for sharply higher vehicle mileage standards and a broader framework of federal climate regulations. Its reversal represents one of the most consequential climate policy shifts of the Trump administration. Legal roots in Supreme Court precedent. The original endangerment finding stemmed from the 2007 Supreme Court decision in Massachusetts v. EPA. In that ruling, the Court held that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases qualify as “air pollutants” under the Clean Air Act and that EPA has authority to regulate them if it determines they endanger public health or welfare. The George W. Bush administration had argued that the Clean Air Act applied only to local pollutants, not global climate concerns. The Supreme Court rejected that interpretation, clearing the way for EPA’s 2009 determination. Administration’s rationale. The Trump administration’s EPA now contends that:• The Clean Air Act does not provide authority to regulate emissions based on a global climate concern.• U.S. greenhouse gas regulations would not materially affect global climate outcomes. Notably, similar arguments were considered and rejected by the Supreme Court in 2007, setting up a direct legal confrontation over statutory interpretation and administrative authority. Litigation likely. Major environmental groups — including the Environmental Defense Fund, the Clean Air Task Force, and the American Lung Association — have already indicated they plan to challenge the rule in court. Given the Supreme Court’s more conservative composition compared to 2007, legal observers say the outcome is uncertain. However, most analysts expect the rescission to face prolonged litigation, potentially returning the issue of EPA climate authority to the Supreme Court. Upshot: If upheld, the rollback could significantly limit the federal government’s ability to regulate greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act. If struck down, it would reaffirm the legal framework that has underpinned U.S. climate policy for more than 15 years. —USDA proposes faster line speeds for poultry and pork plantsAdministration frames changes as supply-chain boost; labor unions raise worker-safety concerns USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) has unveiled two proposed rules that would increase slaughter line speeds at certain poultry and pork facilities, marking a significant regulatory shift aimed at expanding processing capacity and easing food-price pressures. The proposals — one covering poultry plants and another addressing pork facilities — cleared review at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on Feb. 12 after meetings with stakeholders. Poultry: higher speeds under NPIS. Under the proposed rule for poultry establishments operating within the New Poultry Inspection System (NPIS):• Young chicken plants could operate at speeds up to 175 birds per minute (bpm).• Turkey plants would see their maximum allowable speed increase from 55 bpm to 60 bpm. FSIS also proposes to formally define “maximum line speed” as the time necessary for an inspector to effectively conduct online carcass inspection procedures — a clarification intended to tie speed directly to inspection capability rather than a fixed numerical cap. The rule would also:• Clarify circumstances under which establishments must operate at reduced speeds.• Eliminate the requirement that NPIS facilities submit annual worker-safety attestations. Pork: greater flexibility under NSIS. For pork facilities operating under the New Swine Slaughter Inspection System (NSIS), USDA is proposing a more flexible framework:• Plants would be allowed to set their own line speeds, provided they demonstrate the ability to maintain process control.• FSIS inspectors would retain authority to reduce operational speed at any stage if there is a “loss of process control” or if carcass inspections cannot be completed effectively within the available time. The rule would also remove annual worker-safety attestation requirements for NSIS establishments. Industry support, labor pushback. The pork and poultry industries have largely welcomed the proposal, viewing it as a way to increase throughput, modernize inspection systems, and strengthen supply chains. Labor unions representing meatpacking workers, however, have raised concerns about the impact of faster line speeds on worker safety and injury rates — an issue that has been contentious in prior regulatory debates over inspection reform. Broader policy framing. The administration is presenting the proposed rules as part of a broader strategy to:• Increase domestic meat-processing capacity• Improve supply-chain resilience• Help moderate food costs for consumers If finalized, the changes would further expand the role of plant-based inspection models under NPIS and NSIS while shifting more operational flexibility — and responsibility — to processors, with FSIS maintaining oversight authority tied to inspection effectiveness and process control standards. —Biofuels groups blast delays on year-round E15 legislationIndustry leaders say bipartisan solution already exists — urge House leaders to act amid farm income stress Major biofuels and farm groups are escalating pressure on House leadership after a self-imposed deadline to advance year-round E15 legislation passed without a deal. In a joint statement Tuesday, Growth Energy, the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), and the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) criticized what they described as a failure to deliver a “permanent, legislative fix offering consumers year-round access to E15.” The frustration centers on the House’s E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council, which leaders established in January following an impasse over legislative language. The council was tasked with producing consensus legislation by Feb. 15, 2026. That deadline has now come and gone with no announced agreement. Industry: “The solution is on the table.” Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor, Renewable Fuels Association President and CEO Geoff Cooper, and Ohio farmer and National Corn Growers Association President Jed Bower issued a sharply worded statement calling year-round E15 an “urgent priority for rural America.” They argued that bipartisan consensus legislation already exists and has support across much of the biofuels, agriculture, fuel retail, and oil refining sectors. According to the groups, House leaders should focus on that framework rather than reopening negotiations. The statement directly criticized what it called “a tiny handful of mid-sized refiners” for blocking progress while seeking concessions — a clear reference to ongoing disputes over Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) compliance costs and potential relief measures for smaller refining operations. The stakes: Farmers, fuel prices, and election-year politics. E15 — gasoline blended with 15% ethanol — can currently be sold year-round in only certain Midwestern states due to environmental regulations tied to Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) limits. Absent a permanent legislative change, most of the country remains subject to summertime sales restrictions. Biofuels advocates argue that nationwide, year-round E15 would:• Lower fuel prices by several cents per gallon• Expand domestic ethanol demand• Provide a more stable outlet for U.S. corn• Strengthen rural economies amid declining commodity prices With corn prices well below their 2022 peaks and farm income under pressure, ethanol demand is viewed by many producers as one of the few reliable demand pillars. The timing is especially sensitive given broader concerns across rural America about margins, debt levels, and long-term profitability. Trump administration backing. The groups also emphasized support from President Donald Trump, framing year-round E15 as aligned with his “American-made energy” agenda. They argued that rural voters expect action — particularly as broader energy and trade debates continue to shape the policy landscape. “Our rural champions in Congress — backed by President Trump — understand that voters want to see more American-made energy, lower prices at the pump, and a stronger farm economy,” the statement read. What happens next? The absence of a council agreement leaves several potential paths:• Folding E15 language into a broader energy or tax package, or supplemental spending measure• Attaching it to farm bill negotiations• Renewed short-term EPA emergency waivers (less likely to satisfy industry groups) For corn producers and ethanol plants — already watching margins closely — the delay adds another layer of uncertainty. The political calculus is complicated: refiners want compliance cost relief, biofuels groups want certainty, and House leaders are balancing competing energy interests within their own caucus. But from the perspective of rural stakeholders, patience appears to be running thin. The message from the ethanol and corn sectors is clear: the legislative framework exists — now Congress must decide whether to move it. —U.S. saw its first non-Covid drop in international visitors since the Great Recession, led by a plunge in Canadian travelersTrade friction and political barbs begin spilling into travel and economic flows In a Truth Social post last week, President Donald Trump threatened to block the opening of the new $5 billion Gordie Howe International Bridge connecting Detroit and Windsor, Ontario, arguing that Canada must “treat the United States with fairness and respect.” The warning marks the latest flashpoint in a string of cross-border tensions, including trade disputes and Trump’s repeated suggestion that Canada could become the “51st state.” The increasingly combative tone between Washington and Ottawa is beginning to register in economic behavior. Canadian officials are stepping up trade outreach to China, while Canadian tourists are opting for destinations such as Mexico over traditional U.S. hotspots like Florida. According to International Trade Administration data, the post-pandemic rebound in travel to the United States reversed in 2025, with Canada — the largest source of U.S. visitors — accounting for most of the decline. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Global stocks pushed higher despite renewed worries about artificial intelligence gripping markets as investors assessed corporate earnings. Wall Street futures were in positive territory after major U.S. markets closed higher yesterday. The Federal Open Market Committee releases the minutes from its late January monetary-policy meeting. At that meeting, the FOMC left the federal-funds rate unchanged at 3.5% — 3.75%, with two Fed Governors dissenting in favor of a quarter-percentage point cut.
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Feb. 17 | Point Difference from Feb. 13 | % Difference from Feb. 13 |
| Dow | 49,533.19 | +32.26 | +0.07% |
| Nasdaq | 22,578.38 | +31.71 | +0.14% |
| S&P 500 | 6,843.22 | +7.05 | +0.10% |
—Christine Lagarde may step down early as ECB president
Financial Times reports potential leadership shift at European Central Bank amid fragile eurozone recovery
According to the Financial Times, Christine Lagarde is expected to leave the European Central Bank before the end of her eight-year term in October 2027, citing people familiar with the matter. While no formal resignation has been announced, the report suggests internal discussions are underway regarding succession planning at a critical moment for eurozone monetary policy.
Lagarde, who took office in 2019 after serving as managing director of the International Monetary Fund, has overseen one of the most turbulent periods in ECB history — including pandemic-era stimulus, record inflation following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent aggressive tightening cycle.
The reported early departure comes as the ECB is navigating a delicate transition:
• Inflation in the euro area has eased significantly from its 2022 peak but remains uneven across member states.
• Markets are debating the timing and pace of rate cuts after the ECB’s historic hiking cycle.
• Growth across the eurozone remains sluggish, with Germany flirting with recessionary conditions.
A leadership change could introduce uncertainty into forward guidance just as investors seek clarity on when monetary easing may accelerate.
Succession implications. The ECB presidency carries significant influence over the euro area’s financial stability framework and sovereign bond markets. Any early exit would trigger negotiations among eurozone governments over Lagarde’s successor — a process often shaped by geopolitical balancing between larger economies such as Germany, France, and Italy. The Financial Times notes that while Lagarde has not publicly confirmed plans to step down, the possibility of an early departure raises questions about continuity at a moment when fiscal pressures, defense spending, and energy-transition investments are increasing demands on eurozone governments.
Financial markets are likely to respond cautiously to confirmation of any transition:
• The euro could see volatility depending on perceived policy stance of a successor.
• Peripheral sovereign bond spreads may widen if investors fear a shift away from Lagarde’s pragmatic crisis-management approach.
• Banking-sector funding costs could react to changes in rate-cut expectations.
Lagarde’s tenure has been marked less by technocratic monetary detail — traditionally associated with ECB presidents — and more by political coordination and crisis diplomacy. Her potential early exit would mark the end of a chapter defined by extraordinary shocks and aggressive central bank intervention.
For now, the situation remains fluid, but any formal confirmation would quickly become one of the most consequential macro developments in Europe this year.
| AG MARKETS |
—CoBank: soybeans set to gain ground in 2026 U.S. planting season
Stronger returns, renewable fuel policy and rotation shifts drive acreage rebalancing
Low crop prices and persistently high input costs are reshaping spring planting decisions across the U.S., and new analysis from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange suggests soybeans will be the primary beneficiary in 2026.
The bank projects U.S. soybean acreage will increase nearly 6% year-over-year to about 86 million acres, drawing land away from corn, wheat, sorghum, cotton and rice as producers pursue stronger relative returns and marketing flexibility. “Following recent price rallies, soybeans offer greater profit potential than corn, wheat, sorghum, cotton and rice,” said Tanner Ehmke, CoBank’s lead grains and oilseeds economist. He noted that rotation dynamics will also play a critical role after 2025 corn acres reached their highest level in decades.
Soybeans pull acres from multiple crops. Soybeans are benefitting from:
• Expansion in U.S. soy crush capacity
• Expectations of higher renewable volume obligations (RVOs) from EPA
• Anticipated continued Chinese demand
• More favorable price performance relative to competing crops
In the South, soybeans are expected to pull acres from cotton, rice and corn. Across the Midwest and Central Plains, wheat and corn acres are likely to decline in favor of soybeans.
The notable exception is the Northern Plains, where weak soybean basis tied to reduced China exports is encouraging farmers to favor corn. Additionally, corn genetics have performed well in that region, strengthening its competitive position.
Corn acres retreat from 2025 highs. Total U.S. corn acreage is projected at 94.0 million acres — down 4.8% from last year’s historically high level. Key regional dynamics include:
• Northern Plains: Corn gains acres from soybeans due to depressed soybean basis.
• Western states: Corn expands at the expense of wheat, sorghum and soybeans.
• Midwest: Record corn stocks and heavy 2025 corn plantings encourage rotational shifts into soybeans.
Despite the projected decline, corn demand has been steadier than soybeans and sorghum, which have faced trade disruptions.
Wheat, Durum and Sorghum Under Pressure
Spring wheat acres are forecast to decline 1% to 9.89 million acres due to weaker yield performance and lower profit potential compared to corn. However, acreage could rebound if USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report triggers a price rally.
Durum acreage is projected down 3% to 2.12 million acres following last year’s production surge. Ample stocks in the U.S. and Canada have pressured prices, particularly in North Dakota. Some acres are expected to shift to pulse crops and spring wheat.
Sorghum acreage is expected to fall 5% to 6.31 million acres:
• Wide basis levels discourage planting.
• Corn premiums, improved soil moisture and strong yield performance favor corn.
• Higher sorghum stocks after last year’s harvest weigh on prices.
• A potential rebound hinges on stronger export demand from China.
U.S. cotton acreage is projected at 9.19 million acres — down 1% year-over-year and the lowest in 11 years. Pressure points include:
• Slower exports to China
• Increased competition from Brazil and Australia
• Rising use of synthetic fibers
Southern cotton acres are expected to migrate toward soybeans, while irrigated Plains cotton acres shift toward corn. Base acreage payments may help prevent steeper declines.
Rice faces the sharpest contraction. Total U.S. rice acreage is forecast at 2.83 million acres — the lowest in 30 years and down 20% from last year. Long-grain rice in the South is projected to fall 25%.
Rice remains the highest-cost major crop to plant, and global competition is intense:
• Subsidized Indian rice is flooding global markets.
• South American exports are displacing U.S. rice in Mexico and other key destinations.
• Soybeans are emerging as the primary alternative for Southern rice producers.
The big picture: rotation, risk and policy signals. The projected acreage shifts reflect a broader recalibration in U.S. agriculture:
• Record corn stocks and heavy 2025 plantings create rotational pressure.
• Renewable fuel policy expectations are lifting soybean demand prospects.
• Global trade dynamics continue to reshape regional basis signals.
• High production costs are forcing producers to prioritize margin protection.
Final acreage decisions will hinge on late-winter price action, regional basis moves and USDA’s upcoming Prospective Plantings report. But for now, soybeans appear positioned to reclaim acreage leadership in 2026.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Feb. 17 | Change from Feb. 13 |
| Corn | May | $4.35 3/4 | -6 1/4 cents |
| Soybeans | May | $11.48 3/4 | +1/4 cent |
| Soybean Meal | May | $310.80 | -$2.70 |
| Soybean Oil | May | 57.76 | +29 points |
| SRW Wheat | May | $5.42 1/2 | -6 cents |
| HRW Wheat | May | $5.50 1/2 | -3 1/4 cents |
| Spring Wheat | March | $5.68 1/4 | -3 1/2 cents |
| Cotton | May | 63.64 cents | -49 points |
| Live Cattle | April | $242.80 | +$2.175 |
| Feeder Cattle | March | $370.975 | +$4.825 |
| Lean Hogs | April | $92.30 | +$1.025 |
| FARM POLICY |
—House Ag Committee schedules farm bill markup
Chairman GT Thompson sets Monday debate on HR 7567 — The Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026
The House Ag Committee will begin marking up HR 7567 — the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026 — at 1 p.m. ET Monday, marking a pivotal step in the chamber’s long-running effort to advance a new farm bill.
Chairman GT Thompson (R-Pa.) announced the schedule Tuesday, signaling that House Republicans are ready to move forward with a comprehensive package covering commodity programs, crop insurance, conservation, trade, rural development, research, and nutrition policy.
The markup represents the most consequential procedural step since the committee released draft legislative text. Lawmakers will debate amendments line-by-line, with votes determining what ultimately advances to the House floor.
The markup comes as agricultural producers face mounting financial pressure from lower commodity prices, high input costs, and continued uncertainty surrounding trade policy and biofuel markets. Many farm-state lawmakers — on both sides of the aisle — have emphasized the urgency of modernizing the farm safety net.
However, partisan divisions remain sharp. Democrats have signaled concerns about potential nutrition policy changes.
If the bill clears committee, the next challenge will be securing sufficient support on the House floor — particularly if the measure advances on a largely partisan vote, as prior versions have.
Beyond traditional farm policy, the title of the bill underscores a growing emphasis on food security as national security, reflecting concerns about global supply chains, fertilizer imports, biofuel feedstocks, and strategic agricultural trade relationships.
Monday’s markup will provide the clearest indication yet of whether a bipartisan path forward remains viable — or whether the legislation will once again move along party lines, complicating eventual negotiations with the Senate. The committee session is expected to draw heavy attention from farm groups, nutrition advocates, biofuel stakeholders, and agribusiness organizations nationwide.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Wednesday: oil rebounds as Russia/Ukraine talks falter
Geopolitical risk premium returns ahead of U.S. inventory data
Oil prices rose more than 1% Wednesday as investors reassessed geopolitical risks.
Brent crude gained 1.2% to $68.20 per barrel, while WTI climbed 1.2% to $63.06, rebounding from Tuesday’s decline.
Talks in Geneva between Ukraine and Russia ended after two hours, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accusing Moscow of stalling. The U.S.-mediated discussions come as President Donald Trump has urged progress toward a deal.
Meanwhile, U.S./Iran nuclear talks showed limited progress. Iran briefly shut parts of the Strait of Hormuz during military drills, highlighting ongoing supply risks. Roughly 20% of global oil flows through the strait.
Traders now await U.S. inventory data from the Energy Information Administration, with expectations for higher crude stocks but lower fuel inventories.
Bottom Line: Diplomacy remains fragile, keeping a geopolitical floor under oil prices.
—Tuesday: oil slides to two-week lows as U.S./Iran talks ease supply fears
Diplomatic signals trim geopolitical risk premium, but Strait of Hormuz tensions keep market on edge
Oil prices fell roughly 2% Tuesday, hitting their lowest levels in about two weeks, as signs of progress in U.S./Iran nuclear talks reduced fears of an imminent supply disruption.
Brent crude settled down $1.23, or 1.8%, at $67.42 a barrel — its weakest close since early February. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined 56 cents, 0.9%, to $62.33, marking its softest settlement in roughly two weeks.
Diplomacy trims the risk premium. Iran’s foreign minister said Tehran and Washington reached an understanding on the main “guiding principles” during a second round of indirect talks in Geneva. While he cautioned that a final deal is not imminent, the constructive tone was enough to pull some geopolitical risk premium out of crude markets. In recent weeks, prices had been buoyed by fears of supply disruptions tied to escalating tensions. Tuesday’s diplomatic developments temporarily eased those concerns.
Strait of Hormuz underscores fragility. Despite the price decline, the situation remains volatile. Iranian state media reported that Tehran briefly shut the Strait of Hormuz for several hours — a stark reminder of the region’s strategic importance. Roughly 20% of global oil consumption passes through the strait, making it one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Major OPEC producers — including Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq — export most of their crude via this route, primarily to Asian markets. Any sustained disruption would have immediate global pricing implications.
Rising supply adds downward pressure. Beyond geopolitics, additional supply factors weighed on prices:
• Kazakhstan’s giant Tengiz oil field is gradually restoring output after a January outage.
• U.S.-mediated Russia–Ukraine talks continued in Geneva, raising the possibility — however tentative — of a future easing of sanctions on Moscow.
Russia ranked as the world’s third-largest crude producer in 2025, behind the United States and Saudi Arabia, according to U.S. government data. A return of greater Russian volumes to mainstream markets would further soften supply constraints.
Headline-driven volatility likely. Analysts caution that oil markets remain acutely sensitive to diplomatic headlines. Prices are currently being driven more by negotiations and geopolitical signals than by traditional supply-demand fundamentals.
If tensions between Washington and Tehran ease durably, further downside pressure could emerge, analysts note. But with multiple negotiations unfolding simultaneously — and critical energy routes like Hormuz vulnerable — sharp swings remain likely in the weeks ahead.
—Global divisions over energy policy widening, IEA chief says
Fatih Birol warns that climate change is ‘moving down the international policy agenda’
Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), has sounded the alarm that global cohesion on energy and climate policy is fraying, saying divisions between countries over how to manage energy systems are growing and that momentum on addressing climate change at the international level is waning.
In remarks to the Financial Times, Birol emphasized that climate change — once a central pillar of many governments’ energy strategies — is “moving down the international policy agenda,” even as fossil fuel consumption and energy security concerns continue to evolve. He highlighted how geopolitical tensions, economic priorities and differing national energy interests are contributing to a more fragmented global approach to energy policy.
These comments come against a backdrop of uneven global climate action: some major economies are accelerating clean energy investment, while others are prioritizing energy security through continued reliance on fossil fuels or expanding nuclear capacity. This divergence, Birol suggests, is diluting unified global efforts to curb emissions and meet long-term climate goals.
Analysts note that the trend reflects broader geopolitical dynamics, with energy policy increasingly influenced by national strategic imperatives rather than coordinated international climate commitments.
| TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS |
—White House maritime action plan draws bipartisan backing
‘SHIPS for America Act’ sponsors say Congress must act to provide funding, tax credits, and new port fees to rebuild U.S. shipbuilding
Sponsors of the bipartisan SHIPS for America Act are applauding the Trump administration’s newly released “Maritime Action Plan,” calling it a sweeping blueprint to restore U.S. commercial shipping dominance — and urging Congress to move quickly to codify the plan into law.
The strategy, issued by Secretary of State Marco Rubio in his role as assistant to the president for national security affairs and Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought, outlines a multi-pronged effort to revive the domestic shipbuilding sector through long-term funding, new fees on foreign-built vessels, and tax incentives for U.S. shipyards.
Maritime Security Trust Fund and tax credits. At the center of the plan is the creation of a Maritime Security Trust Fund designed to provide sustained investment in shipbuilding capacity, fleet expansion, and workforce development.
Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), a member of the Senate Finance Committee and co-sponsor of the SHIPS legislation, said there is “substantial overlap” between the White House vision and the bill he introduced with Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.). Their proposal would:
• Establish a dedicated fund for critical maritime security programs
• Create a 25% investment tax credit for shipyard investments
• Provide broader support for rebuilding the U.S. maritime industrial base
Young praised the administration’s “holistic approach” and said the plan should serve as a “wake-up call” for Congress to provide the legal authorities and funding needed to execute it.
In the House, Rep. John Garamendi (D-Calif.) — who leads companion legislation with Rep. Trent Kelly (R-Miss.) — similarly welcomed the administration’s commitment, arguing that passage of the SHIPS bill represents the most comprehensive path toward restoring American leadership in global maritime trade.
New port fees and infrastructure charges. The White House plan goes further by proposing new fee structures to finance maritime revitalization:
• A Land Port Maintenance Tax, equivalent to the existing harbor maintenance tax (0.125 percent on commercial cargo entering U.S. seaports), to ensure land ports contribute equitably to infrastructure upkeep.
• A potential universal infrastructure or security fee on all foreign-built commercial vessels calling at U.S. ports, assessed by cargo weight.
According to the plan:
• A 1 cent per kilogram fee could generate roughly $66 billion over ten years.
• A 25 cent per kilogram fee could raise nearly $1.5 trillion over ten years.
Revenue from such fees would flow into the proposed Maritime Security Trust Fund. The administration argues that foreign-built vessels benefiting from U.S. market access should help finance long-term maritime capacity.
Trade backdrop and Section 301 context. The action plan references prior enforcement efforts under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Last fall, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative temporarily imposed port fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-operated vessels following a Section 301 investigation into China’s maritime and shipbuilding practices. Those fees were paused for one year in November as part of a broader U.S./China trade détente.
The White House indicates it is developing additional legislative proposals to reinforce its maritime agenda and prevent companies from circumventing port fees by routing imports through land borders instead of maritime ports.
Whole-of-government push. The administration frames the Maritime Action Plan as a “whole-of-government approach” requiring congressional partnership to reverse decades of U.S. shipbuilding decline and reassert commercial and strategic maritime strength.
With bipartisan sponsors now aligning behind the White House strategy, the next test will be whether Congress can translate the broad blueprint into enacted funding mechanisms, tax credits, and border-fee authorities — and whether those measures withstand trade, fiscal, and geopolitical scrutiny.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Widespread heavy snow continues for the Sierra as well as the ranges of the Intermountain West… …A swath of wintry weather expected from the Upper Midwest to New England; another storm will bring snow to portions of the northern and central Plains Wednesday into Thursday… …Well above average temperatures expected through mid-week for the central to eastern U.S. while the western U.S. remains cooler and well below average.
